Dissertation / Project / Project Work Title:

Understanding Electric Vehicle Market

Course No. : MBAZG622T

Course Title: Dissertation / Project / Project Work

Dissertation / Project /Project Work Done by:

Student Name: Shankar Sil

BITS ID: 2020HB79518

Degree Program: MBA Manufacturing Management

Research Area: (Insert Dissertation / Project / Project Work Research Area)

Dissertation / Project Work carried out at:

Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India Pvt. Ltd, Bangalore

[Worlds Largest Two-Wheelers Plant of Honda]

BIRLA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY & SCIENCE, PILANI

VIDYA VIHAR, PILANI, RAJASTHAN - 333031.
(September-2022)
 Understanding Electric Vehicle Market

MBAZG622T: Dissertation
by
Shankar Sil [2020HB79518]

Dissertation work carried out at

Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India Pvt Ltd, Bangalore

Submitted in partial fulfilment of (MBA Manufacturing Management) degree programme

Under the Supervision of Mr. Kunuru Kiran

Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India Pvt Ltd, Bangalore

BIRLA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY & SCIENCE PILANI (RAJASTHAN)

(September-2022)
 ABSTRACT

❑ The global electric vehicle (EV) market is developing at a rapid pace. According to EV volumes, overall electric
vehicle reached a global share of 8.3% (including battery electric vehicles [BEVs] and Plug- in hybrid electric
vehicles [PHEVs]) in 2021 from 4.2% in 2020 with 6.75 million vehicles on the road.
❑ This is an increase of 108% as of 2020. EVs are gaining attention across the globe as they help reduce emissions
and depletion of natural resources.
❑ The Indian EV market is also evolving fast as close to 0.32 million vehicles were sold in 2021, up 168% YoY.
Ongoing electric vehicle adoption in India is based on the Paris agreement to reduce carbon emissions, to
improve the air quality in urban areas and reduce oil imports.
❑ However, as time showed, 2020 turned out to be a surprisingly positive year, with global EV sales growing by
43% from 2019 and the global electric car industry market share rising to a record 4,6% in 2020.
❑ The biggest concentration of privately owned electric two/three wheelers is in Asia, specifically in China,
accounting for 9.5 million registrations out of the total of 10 million in 2021. Vietnam and India follow as strong
markets for electric two/three wheelers. The market is also growing in Europe, where it reached 5% market
share in 2021.
❑ In 2021 however, almost 90% of electric trucks were registered in China. Turning the existing fleet of HDT electric
matters because even though they only account for 10 % of ICE vehicles, they are responsible for 70 % of ICE CO2
emissions.
❑ In 2021, we counted almost 376 000 publicly available EV chargers in Europe. By 2025, it's estimated for 1.3
million charging stations to be publicly accessible and the number should grow to 2.9 million by 2030.
❑ The demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is rising in India. According to data, the EV market is expected to grow at
a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 94.4% from 2021 to 2030.
 ABSTRACT Contd.

❑ Global EV marketing is growing at a staggering CAGR of 21.7%. A whopping 4.19 lakh EVs have already been
sold in India in 2022.
❑ According to a CEEW-CEF study, the EV market will be a $206 billion opportunity by 2030 if steady progress is
maintained in India.
❑ By 2030, 80% of two and three-wheelers, 40% of buses, and 30 to 70% of cars in India will be electric vehicles,
says the NITI Aayog.
❑ The International Energy Agency cites that there would be 70 million electric vehicles by 2025. Till 2026, the EV
market is scheduled to grow at a CAGR of 36%.
❑ Nations such as the UK, France, Norway, and India are about to undertake e-mobility on a bigger scale.

Student Shankar Sil Supervisor Kunuru Kiran

Sign
Sign
Date Date
Location Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India Location Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India
 Acknowledgement

I take this opportunity to express my profound gratitude and deep regards to my guide Mr. Kunuru Kiran,
Department Head, Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India Pvt Ltd, Bangalore for his exemplary guidance, monitoring
and constant encouragement throughout the course of this Dissertation work. The time to time help and
guidance given by him shall carry me a long way in the journey of life on which I am about to embark. Sincere
appreciation is extended to Mr. Sashikant Mohanty, Head-Digital Ventures, Arthur D Little, Bangalore for his
immense help during the course of this work. My several well-wishers helped me directly or indirectly, I
virtually fall short of words to express my gratefulness to them.
Therefore, I am leaving this acknowledgement incomplete……….in their reminiscence.

Signature of Student
Shankar Sil
 Abbreviations

BEV Battery Electric Vehicle

ICE Internal Combustion Engine

EV Electric Vehicle

PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

 Contents
Chapter No Title Page No_

Abstract I
Abbreviations II
1 INTRODUCTION 1~8
1.1 Outline of the project 3~5
1.2 Objective 6
1.3 Observations 7~8
2 LITERATURE & SURVEY
2.1 Literature reviews 9
2.2 Online survey feedbacks 10
3 ANALYSIS 11
4 RESULT 12
5 IMPLEMENTATION PROPOSAL 13
6 CONCLUSION 14
7 FUTURE PROSPECT 15~18
8 REFERENCES 19
9 APPENDICIES 20
 Chapter -1 -Introduction 01/19

Electric vehicle market size is valued at USD 171.35 billion in 2020 and is expected to reach a value
of USD 726.14 billion by 2026 at a CAGR of 27.19% during the forecast period 2021-2026. Plug-in Hybrid
Electric Vehicles is modern electric propulsion, consisting of electric machines, power electronic
converters, electric energy sources such as fuel cells and storage devices, and electronic controllers.
The automotive Manufacturers have been driven to supply electric Zero Emission vehicles all over the
world due to electric vehicle market trends such as rising demand for low-emission and governments
encouragement towards long-range, zero-emission vehicles via subsidies and tax refunds which is
estimated to boost the electric vehicle market size. Major players such as Tesla, ford, General motor and
others are focused on increase of investment towards EV production. For instance Ford is investing $1
billion in an electric vehicle production facility in Cologne, Germany; this investment will transform the
existing vehicle assembly operations into the Ford Cologne Electrification Centre for the manufacture of
electric vehicles.
 Chapter -1 -Introduction Contd. 02/19

Moreover Indian government to boost electric mobility over Internal Combustion engine based vehicles
in the country announced to support 15.62 lakh electric vehicles through subsidies and have
implemented a budgetary support of ₹ 10,000 crores. APAC is expected to hold large share in the
electric car industry analysis estimation, with China accounting for half of the vehicle sales. The
electric vehicle industry analysis, particularly the global electric commercial vehicle market will be
driven by this rising investment.
 1.1 Outline of Project 03/19

HISTORICAL DATA OF THE GLOBAL EV MARKET :-

➢ To understand the current situation of the EV sector, let’s
look at what happened in the past couple of years.
➢ The year 2020 did not show a big growth in overall new
car registrations. The global market for all types of cars
was negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the
economic downturn that followed. Amid the pandemic, the
outlook for global EV sales was quite unpredictable in the
beginning of the year.
➢ However, as time showed, 2020 turned out to be a
surprisingly positive year, with global EV sales growing by
43% from 2019 and the global electric car industry market
share rising to a record 4,6% in 2020.
➢ 2021 followed, breaking records. Sales of electric vehicles
doubled from 2021 to 6.75 million. The amount of EVs sold
in a week in 2021 was higher than how many were sold in
a whole year of 2012.
➢ EVs are to play a central role in the ambitious objective
of zero emission targets set for 2050, and the industry is
clearly gearing up for it.
 1.1 Outline of Project Contd. 04/19

GLOBAL ELECTRIC CAR MARKET SHARE AND SIZE :-

➢ The year 2021 was already a major leap forward in
terms of electric vehicle sales.
➢ 2022 is a whole new story. The market is growing.
It’s growing fast. And it’s growing everywhere.
➢ Carried by a decarbonisation challenge most leading
nations now take seriously, global EV sales keep
accelerating in 2022. Looking at the first five months
of the year, more than 3.2 million new plug-in cars
were registered worldwide.
➢ The increase in electric car registrations in Europe,
where numbers are accelerating a lot faster than
elsewhere since 2019, can be attributed to stimulus
measures introduced by many European
governments. Major markets have also introduced
tax benefits and subsidies, which contributed to the
sales growth.
➢ Out of Europe's overall car sales, electric vehicles
accounted for 17% in 2021. The largest European
markets remain to be Germany, Norway, Iceland and
Sweden, according to the 2022 Global EV Outlook by
IEA.
 1.1 Outline of Project Contd. 05/19

EV Market in India :-
➢ The Indian automobile industry is the fifth largest in the world and is expected to become the third largest
by 2030. As per India Energy Storage Alliance (IESA), the Indian EV industry is expected to expand at a
CAGR of 36%. As population rises and demand for vehicles grow, dependence on conventional energy
resources is not a sustainable option as India imports close to 80% of its crude oil requirements. NITI
Aayog aims to achieve EV sales penetration of 70% for all commercial cars, 30% for private cars, 40% for
buses and 80% for two and three-wheelers by 2030. This is in line with the goal to achieve net zero carbon
emission by 2070. Over the last three years, 0.52 million EVs were registered in India, according to the
Ministry of Heavy Industries. EVs recorded robust growth in 2021, supported by the implementation of
favorable policies and programmes by the government.
 1.2 Objective 06/19

The objectives of my project are as follows:

● Understand the current scenario with respect to current situation for Electric vehicles globally.

● How India & the world is reacting to the EV revolution in terms of Government Impetus & revolutionizing

Automobile sector.

● How are we gearing up towards self-reliance.

● Build a deeper insight of the Two-wheelers & four-wheelers EV markets considering the FAME policies

implementations.
 1.3 Observations 07/19

➢ Governments all over the world are encouraging the EV industry through subsidies and regulations, and the consumers are demanding
low-emission commuting instead of the fossil fuel-driven vehicles, which are endangering our planet.
➢ When the first EVs were manufactured/introduced, very high initial cost, low battery range, low speed, and much lower environmental
concerns resulted in the industry not taking off.
➢ The last 10 years though have seen universal interest among original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), customers, and governments,
resulting in huge investments being made in EV manufacturing and battery technology, resulting in millions of vehicles getting sold in
various countries.
➢ All the major global and Indian OEMs have invested in and launched EVs, and a large number of new OEMs have attracted huge
1.3 the
investments and launched very successful models, building Observations
demand for EVs, and thus creating unicorns, too.
➢ Tesla has been one of the most successful EV company/brand in the world, but others, including Mercedes Benz, Tata, MG, GM, Audi,
Hyundai, Nissan, BMW, and Renault have also launched EVs, which are receiving customer demand in different markets.
➢ There is no doubt that EVs are the future of driving and mobility.
➢ Interesting perspective relates to the development of new EV parts and charging technologies.
➢ The increase in electric car registrations resulted in an increased production of automotive lithium-ion batteries. In 2021, EV
battery demand doubled from the previous year, mainly due to the increased EV sales in China.
 1.3 Observations Contd. 08/19

➢ China remains the leading country for battery production accounting for more than 75% of global production capacity. However, Europe
is not staying behind. According to Bloomberg-NEF, Europe’s share of global battery production could rise to 31% by 2030. In
comparison, the continent’s share of global battery production was only 7% in 2021.
➢ It's clear that to support the growing demand for electric vehicles, the various elements of EV battery supply chain will have to
increase, from the extraction of raw materials such as lithium or nickel to the EV production itself. However, metal supply estimates
should be sufficient to meet the estimated demand set by the Stated Policies Scenario for 2025.
➢ Variety of developments in battery characteristics, driven by a high demand, will provide multiple benefits to the EV business. For the
EV market, further technological advances include:
❖ changes in battery chemistry
❖ changes in energy density
❖ changes in the size of battery packs
➢ Ultimately, these changes will lead to cost reductions and increased production efficiency.
➢ Several EV manufacturing plants are planning to expand their electric car production capacity because of increased policy support.
This is, of course, good news for the market at large, since it means that the supply of EVs will be able to catch up with the demand.
 Chapter -2 –Literature & Survey 09/19

Significant cost savings on running and maintenance:-

➢ Running and maintenance costs are a major part of the ownership cost of any vehicle, and
it is now well established that EV buyers spend much less on fuel/energy and maintenance,
as EVs have fewer moving parts than a gasoline engine, which makes it easier to maintain.
➢ EVs have very few parts that may break or need any repair or replacement. So, there is no
need to worry about changing the engine oil, thus making it easier to maintain electric cars
at a lower cost.
➢ Oil, being a dominant energy source, causes a wide range of problems, as transportation
remains dependent on oil. But an electric vehicle offers a clean and better way of
transportation for everyone.
➢ The increase in the number of electric vehicles on the road will reduce the demand for
millions of barrels of oil in the future.

Eco-friendly savings on CO2 emissions:

➢ Shifting to electric mobility will help India save nearly one giga-tonne of carbon dioxide
emissions by 2030.
➢ Each electric car on the road helps in reducing the harmful air pollution for the younger
generations to come.
➢ The whole world is fighting global warming and drastic climate change, which is increasing
conflicts and political tensions between nations.
➢ Car buyers are ready to do their bit for the environment by shifting to EVs, which have zero
tailpipe emissions, and which will ultimately help save our environment from smog and climate
change.
➢ This is a great initiative toward reducing the ecological damage and boosting public health. The
lesser exhaustion of harmful emissions will lead to better air quality.
 Chapter -2 –Literature & Survey Contd. 10/19

Tax benefits:
➢ Buying or leasing an EV can give you an advantage in tax savings. If you have an electric vehicle registered in your company’s name,
then you can avail yourself of the 40 per cent depreciation in the first year to save on income tax.
➢ The government is also supporting your idea of buying an electric car, and has already introduced an EV policy under which you can
avail yourself of additional benefits of up to Rs 1.5 lakh.

Central Government Policies:

➢ National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020 (NEMMP):
Launched in 2013 by the Department of Heavy Industry (DHI).
➢ FAME (Faster Adoption and manufacturing of hybrid and electric vehicles )Phase I:
Notified in April 2015, to promote the manufacture of electric and hybrid vehicle technology and mainly focuses on four aspects
demand creation, technology platform, pilot projects, and charging infrastructure.
➢ FAME Phase II: Launched in 2019 for a period of three years, this scheme has an outlay of US$1.36 billion to be used for upfront
incentives on the purchase of EVs as well as supporting the development of charging infrastructure. FICCI has asked for
the continuation of FAME II till 2025, along with short-term booster incentives to enhance demand.
➢ Amendments to FAME Phase II: the subsidy per electric two-wheeler (Indian-made), which is linked to the battery size, has
been increased to INR 15,000 (US$204.60) per Kilowatt-hour (KWh) from INR 10,000 (US$136.40) KWh.
 Analysis & Results 04/19
11/19

1.The Stated Policies Scenario suggests that by 2030, the global electric vehicle stock (excluding two/three-
wheelers) will reach nearly 200 million vehicles and will account for about 10% of the global vehicle fleet.
2.According to a more ambitious scenario, the Announced Pledges Scenario, 270 million EVs will be roaming
global roads by 2030 and the share of EV in the global vehicle stock will reach 14%.
3.Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario predicts that the global EV stock will reach 350 million EVs and its share
will climb up to 20% in 2030.
 Analysis & Results Contd. 04/19
12/19

➢ Hero Electric, Okinawa and Ather Energy controls the electric two-wheeler market in India with a combined
market share of 64%. Hero Electric has a market share of 36% followed by Okinawa with 21%. Ather Energy with
an 11.1% market share is slowly gaining market share, as the company is currently expanding its distribution
network across India. In the passenger vehicle segment, Tata Motors enjoys a commanding position in electric
vehicle space with a market share of 71%, led by their two key models, Nexon and Tigor EV. MG Motors India
enjoys the second position and offers the longest-range EV (MG EZS provides 439 KM range on a single
charge). Other Indian manufacturers have announced their models and is expected to be launched in the future.
 Chapter 5 Implementation & Proposal 05/19
13/19

1.Range anxiety reflects a key concern about batteries in electric cars losing power before reaching a destination or charging point.
2.Customer Views about electric cars being sluggish to react and having a low top speed must be changed by offering of OEMs, like
Tesla did.
3.There is lack of awareness among the customers about the usage of electric vehicles to reduce the pollution.
4. Customers have views that EV can be used only for short daily commute due to lack of performance and unavailability of charging
stations.
Challenges to the widespread adoption of EVs

• Inadequate charging infrastructure.

• Risk of grid overload.

• High-carbon grid profile.

• Finite critical minerals and rare earth metals.

• Smart and flexible charging.

• Smart energy management for effective EV load management.

• Battery monitoring, analytics and recycling.

 Chapter 6 Conclusion 05/19
14/19

➢ Electric vehicles are the key technology to de-carbonise road transport, a sector that accounts for 16% of global emissions.
Recent years have seen exponential growth in the sale of electric vehicles together with improved range, wider model
availability and increased performance. Passenger electric cars are surging in popularity - we estimate that 13% of new car
sold in 2022 will be electric; if the growth experienced in the past two years is sustained, CO2 emissions from cars can be
put on a path in line with the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. However, electric vehicles are not yet a global
phenomenon. Sales in developing and emerging countries have been slow due to higher purchase costs and a lack of
charging infrastructure availability.
➢ Electric car sales reached a record high in 2021, despite supply chain bottlenecks and the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.
Compared with 2020, sales nearly doubled to 6.6 million (a sales share of nearly 9%), bringing the total number of electric
cars on the road to 16.5 million. The sales share of electric cars increased by 4 percentage points in 2021. The Net Zero
Emissions by 2050 Scenario sees an electric car fleet of over 300 million in 2030 and electric cars accounting for 60% of
new car sales. Getting on track with the Net Zero Scenario requires their sales share to increase by less than 6%
percentage points per year.
 Chapter 7 Future Predictions 15/19

The future of passenger vehicle powertrains is electric; the transformation is ongoing :

❖ The tipping point in passenger EV adoption occurred in the second half of 2020, when EV sales and penetration accelerated in
major markets despite the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
❖ Europe spearheaded this development, where EV adoption reached 8 percent due to policy mandates such as stricter
emissions targets for OEMs and generous subsidies for consumers.
❖ In 2021, the discussions have centered on the end date for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales. New regulatory
targets in the European Union and the United States now aim for an EV share of at least 50 percent by 2030, and several
countries have announced accelerated timelines for ICE sales bans in 2030 or 2035.
❖ Some OEMs have stated their intentions to stop investing in new ICE platforms and models and many more have already
defined a specific date to end ICE vehicle production. Consumer mindsets have also shifted toward sustainable mobility, with
more than 45 percent of car customers considering buying an EV.
❖ However, the continued acceleration of electrification is putting significant pressure on OEMs, their supply chains, and the
broader EV ecosystem to meet these targets. This is particularly obvious with respect to setting up the required charging
infrastructure.
 Chapter 7 Future Predictions Contd. 16/19

By 2035, the largest automotive markets will go electric :

❖ Regulatory pressure and the consumer pull toward EVs vary greatly by region. Europe is mainly a regulation-driven market
with high subsidies, while in China consumer pull is very strong despite reduced incentives. In the United States, EV sales
have grown slowly due to both limited regulatory pressure and consumer interest, although the regulator trend is set to
change under the new administration.
❖ On a global level, we expect EV (BEV, PHEV, and FCEV)1 adoption to reach 45 percent under currently expected regulatory
targets. However, even this transformative EV growth outlook is far below what’s required to achieve net zero emissions. EVs
would need to account for 75 percent of passenger car sales globally by 2030, which significantly outpaces the current course
and speed of the industry.
❖ We believe Europe—as a regulatory-driven market with positive consumer demand trends—will electrify the fastest and is
expected to remain the global leader in electrification in terms of EV market share.
❖ In addition to the European Commission target, which requires around 60 percent EV sales by 2030, several countries have
already announced an end to ICE sales by 2030.
❖ In line with this, seven OEM brands have committed to 100 percent EV sales by 2030 within the European Union.
❖ In the most likely accelerated scenario, consumer adoption will exceed regulatory targets and Europe will reach around 75
percent EV market share by 2030.
 Chapter 7 Future Predictions Contd. 07/19
17/19

❖ The European Union announced a zero-emissions target for new cars by 2035.
❖ China will also continue to see strong growth in electrification and remain the largest EV market in absolute terms. Uptake
results from strong consumer pull, despite low EV subsidies and no official end date for ICE sales.
❖ However, the government’s dual-credit policy has led to an increased EV share in OEMs’ portfolios. Our adoption modeling
yields a Chinese EV share above 70 percent for new car sales in 2030 in the accelerated scenario.
❖ In the United States, the Biden administration announced a 50 percent electrification target for 2030, strong investments in
charging infrastructure, and more stringent fleet emissions targets.
❖ EV uptake will result mainly from regulatory support in California and other states that follow its CARB ZEV regulation.
❖ US OEMs support electrification targets and have declared ICE bans by 2035, meaning the United States will follow Europe and
China in EV uptake with a small delay; it is expected to exceed current regulatory targets and reach 65 percent EV sales by
2030 in the accelerated scenario .
Chapter 7 Future Predictions Contd. 18/19
 References 19/19

1. https://yourstory.com/smbstory/future-electric-vehicles-india-oral-care-lending-model-e-invoicing

2. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/auto/policy-and-industry/electric-vehicle-industry-in-india-current-state-govt-policies-future-
outlook/articleshow/93611752.cms

3. https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/are-electric-vehicles-indias-future/article65280853.ece

4. https://startuptalky.com/indian-electric-vehicles-future/

5. https://www.outlookindia.com/business/top-5-reasons-why-electric-vehicles-are-the-future-of-driving-in-2022-news-201722

6. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/why-the-automotive-future-is-electric
 Checklist of Items for the Final Dissertation / Project / Project Work Report
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 Checklist of Items for the Final Dissertation / Project / Project Work Report Contd.

Declaration by Student:
I certify that I have properly verified all the items in this checklist and ensure that the report is in
proper format as specified in the course handout.

Student Shankar Sil

Sign

Date

Location Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India

BITS ID 2020HB79518
Thank You