Lecture 5

Discrete Probability
Distributions
 Lecture Outline
Random Variables
Discrete Probability Distributions
Expected Value and Variance
Binomial Probability Distribution
Poisson Probability Distribution
Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
(optional)
.40

.30

.20

.10

0 1 2 3 4

Slide 2
 Random Variables
A random variable is a numerical description of
the outcome of an experiment.
A random variable can be classified as being
either discrete or continuous depending on the
numerical values it assumes.
A discrete random variable may assume either a
finite number of values or an infinite sequence
of values.
A continuous random variable may assume any
numerical value in an interval or collection of
intervals.

Slide 3
 Example: JSL Appliances
Discrete random variable with a finite number
of values
Let x = number of TV sets sold at the store in one day
where x can take on 5 values (0, 1, 2, 3, 4)
Discrete random variable with an infinite
sequence of values
Let x = number of customers arriving in one day
where x can take on the values 0, 1, 2, . . .

We can count the customers arriving, but there

is no finite upper limit on the number that might
arrive.

Slide 4
 Discrete Probability Distributions
The probability distribution for a random variable
describes how probabilities are distributed over
the values of the random variable.
The probability distribution is defined by a
probability function, denoted by f(x), which
provides the probability for each value of the
random variable.
The required conditions for a discrete probability
function are:
f(x) > 0
f(x) = 1
We can describe a discrete probability distribution
with a table, graph, or equation.
Slide 5
 Example: JSL Appliances
Using past data on TV sales (below left), a
tabular representation of the probability
distribution for TV sales (below right) was
developed.
Number
Units Sold of Days x f(x)
0 80 0 .40
1 50 1 .25
2 40 2 .20
3 10 3 .05
4 20 4 .10
200 1.00
Slide 6
 Example: JSL Appliances
Graphical Representation of the Probability
Distribution

.50
Probability

.40

.30
.20
.10

0 1 2 3 4
Values of Random Variable x (TV sales)

Slide 7
 Discrete Uniform Probability
Distribution
The discrete uniform probability distribution is
the simplest example of a discrete probability
distribution given by a formula.
The discrete uniform probability function is

f(x) = 1/n
where:
n = the number of values the random
variable may assume
Note that the values of the random variable are
equally likely.

Slide 8
 Expected Value and Variance
The expected value, or mean, of a random
variable is a measure of its central location.
Expected value of a discrete random variable:
E(x) =  = xf(x)

The variance summarizes the variability in the

values of a random variable.
Variance of a discrete random variable:

Var(x) =  2 = (x - )2f(x)

The standard deviation,  , is defined as the

positive square root of the variance.

Slide 9
 Example: JSL Appliances
Expected Value of a Discrete Random Variable

x f(x) xf(x)
0 .40 .00
1 .25 .25
2 .20 .40
3 .05 .15
4 .10 .40
E(x) = 1.20

The expected number of TV sets sold in a day is

1.2

Slide 10
 Example: JSL Appliances
Variance and Standard Deviation of a Discrete
Random Variable
x x- (x - )2 f(x) (x - )2f(x)
0 -1.2 1.44 .40 .576
1 -0.2 0.04 .25 .010
2 0.8 0.64 .20 .128
3 1.8 3.24 .05 .162
4 2.8 7.84 .10 .784
1.660 =  

The variance of daily sales is 1.66 TV sets squared.

The standard deviation of sales is 1.2884 TV sets.

Slide 11
Binomial Probability Distribution
Properties of a Binomial Experiment

The experiment consists of a sequence of n

identical trials.

Two outcomes, success and failure, are

possible on each trial.

The probability of a success, denoted by p,

does not change from trial to trial.

The trials are independent.

Slide 12
 Example: Evans Electronics
Binomial Probability Distribution
Evans is concerned about a low retention
rate for employees. On the basis of past
experience, management has seen a turnover of
10% of the hourly employees annually. Thus, for
any hourly employees chosen at random,
management estimates a probability of 0.1 that
the person will not be with the company next
year.
Choosing 3 hourly employees at random,
what is the probability that 1 of them will leave
the company this year?
Let: p = .10, n = 3, x = 1

Slide 13
Binomial Probability Distribution
Binomial Probability Function

n!
f ( x) = p x (1 − p ) (n − x )
x !( n − x )!

where:
f(x) = the probability of x successes in n trials
n = the number of trials
p = the probability of success on any one trial

Slide 14
 Example: Evans Electronics
Using the Binomial Probability Function
n!
f ( x) = p x (1 − p) (n − x )
x !( n − x )!
3!
f (1) = ( 0.1)1 ( 0. 9 ) 2
1!( 3 − 1)!
= (3)(0.1)(0.81)

= .243

Slide 15
 Example: Evans Electronics
Using the Tables of Binomial Probabilities

p
n x .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 .35 .40 .45 .50
3 0 .7290 .6141 .5120 .4219 .3430 .2746 .2160 .1664 .1250
1 .2430 .3251 .3840 .4219 .4410 .4436 .4320 .4084 .3750
2 .0270 .0574 .0960 .1406 .1890 .2389 .2880 .3341 .3750
3 .0010 .0034 .0080 .0156 .0270 .0429 .0640 .0911 .1250

Slide 16
 Example: Evans Electronics
Using a Tree Diagram
First Second Third Value
Worker Worker Worker of x Prob.
L (.1) 3 .0010
Leaves (.1)
S (.9) 2 .0090
Leaves (.1)
L (.1) 2 .0090
Stays (.9)
S (.9) 1 .0810
L (.1) 2 .0090
Leaves (.1)
S (.9) 1 .0810
Stays (.9) L (.1) 1 .0810
Stays (.9)
S (.9) 0 .7290

Slide 17
Binomial Probability Distribution
Expected Value

E(x) =  = np

Variance

Var(x) =  2 = np(1 - p)

Standard Deviation

SD( x ) =  = np (1 − p )

Slide 18
 Example: Evans Electronics
Binomial Probability Distribution
Expected Value
E(x) =  = 3(.1) = .3 employees out of 3
Variance
Var(x) =  2 = 3(.1)(.9) = .27
Standard Deviation

SD( x) =  = 3(.1)(.9) = .52 employees

Slide 19
Poisson Probability Distribution
Properties of a Poisson Experiment

The probability of an occurrence is the same

for any two intervals of equal length.

The occurrence or nonoccurrence in any

interval is independent of the occurrence or
nonoccurrence in any other interval.

Slide 20
 Poisson Probability Distribution
Poisson Probability Function

 x e−
f ( x) =
x!
where:
f (x) = probability of x occurrences in an
interval
 = mean number of occurrences in an
interval
e = 2.71828

Slide 21
 Example: Mercy Hospital
Using the Poisson Probability Function
Patients arrive at the emergency room of Mercy
Hospital at the average rate of 6 per hour on
weekend evenings. What is the probability of 4
arrivals in 30 minutes on a weekend evening?

 = 6/hour = 3/half-hour, x = 4

34 ( 2. 71828) −3
f ( 4) = =.1680
4!

Slide 22
 Example: Mercy Hospital
Using the Tables of Poisson Probabilities

x 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0
0 .1225 .1108 .1003 .0907 .0821 .0743 .0672 .0608 .0550 .0498
1 .2572 .2438 .2306 .2177 .2052 .1931 .1815 .1703 .1596 .1494
2 .2700 .2681 .2652 .2613 .2565 .2510 .2450 .2384 .2314 .2240
3 .1890 .1966 .2033 .2090 .2138 .2176 .2205 .2225 .2237 .2240
4 .0992 .1082 .1169 .1254 .1336 .1414 .1488 .1557 .1622 .1680
5 .0417 .0476 .0538 .0602 ..0668 .0735 .0804 .0872 .0940 .1008
6 .0146 .0174 .0206 .0241 .0278 .0319 .0362 .0407 .0455 .0504
7 .0044 .0055 .0068 .0083 .0099 .0118 .0139 .0163 .0188 .0216
8 .0011 .0015 .0019 .0025 .0031 .0038 .0047 .0057 .0068 .0081

Slide 23
 Hypergeometric Probability
Distribution
The hypergeometric distribution is closely

related to the binomial distribution.

With the hypergeometric distribution, the trials

are not independent, and the probability of

success changes from trial to trial.

Slide 24
 Hypergeometric Probability
Distribution
Hypergeometric Probability Function

 r  N − r 
  
 x  n − x 
f ( x) = for 0 < x < r
N
 
n
where: f(x) = probability of x successes in n trials
n = number of trials
N = number of elements in the population
r = number of elements in the population
labeled success

Slide 25
 Example: Neveready
Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
Bob Neveready has removed two dead
batteries from a flashlight and inadvertently
mingled them with the two good batteries he
intended as replacements. The four batteries
look identical.
Bob now randomly selects two of the four
batteries. What is the probability he selects the
two good batteries?

Slide 26
 Example: Neveready
Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

 r  N − r   2  2   2!  2! 
        
 x  n − x   2  0   2!0! 0!2! 1
f ( x) = = = = = .167
N  4  4!  6
     
n  2  2!2!
where:
x = 2 = number of good batteries selected
n = 2 = number of batteries selected
N = 4 = number of batteries in total
r = 2 = number of good batteries in total

Slide 27