US FOREST SERVICE NORTHERN RESEARCH STATION

Research Review NO. 24 | september 2014

Forest Service Scientists Are

Developing Fire-Weather and
Smoke Prediction Tools—
Where There’s Fire, There’s Smoke
Today’s headlines highlight the problem that wildland fires have become in the United
States, especially in the West. A century of aggressive fire suppression resulted in the
growth of fire-susceptible forests in many places where fire-dependent and fire-resistant
ecosystems had previously flourished. Complicating today’s fire problems is the building
of more communities and second homes in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), putting
more people and their possessions directly in the path of fires.

Weather and climate affect wildland fires in many ways. Drought can kill vegetation,
creating fuels that are conducive to extreme and erratic fire behavior. Episodic high
temperatures and low relative humidity exacerbate longer-term drought effects and make
fires harder to extinguish. Ambient and fire-induced winds can intensify the flames, often
carrying fire into tree crowns and across roads and firebreaks and spreading embers
miles away. Lightning starts many fires in dry regions. Knowing the specific weather
conditions and dangers in fire-prone areas and specifically at fire lines is vital to good
management and to the safety of fire crews.

Prescribed fire in a Florida pine forest.

continued on page two
Photo by Roger Ottmar, U.S. Forest Service.
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WILDFIRES AND SMOKE CAN BE HEALTH

AND SAFETY HAZARDS
Smoke generated by wildland fires creates multiple risks. Smoke
is a health problem for residents living near fires and especially for
firefighters who inhale smoke chronically. Wildfires and notably
prescribed fires used to control fuels and maintain fire-dependent
ecosystems can produce smoke that lingers for relatively long
periods of time. People with conditions such as asthma, emphysema,
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), heart disease, and
migraines are vulnerable. Smoke from wildland fires can also reduce
visibility over nearby and downwind roads and highways.

Smoke from a low-intensity prescribed fire in the New Jersey Pine Barrens.
SMOKE MANAGEMENT OF CONCERN Photo by Warren Heilman, U.S. Forest Service.
THROUGHOUT THE NATION
Big, dramatic, and dangerous western wildfires certainly make the NRS SCIENTISTS STUDY FIRE-ATMOSPHERE
news. But even though large wildfires in the Northeast and Midwest are INTERACTIONS
infrequent, they still happen; consider the 93,000-acre Pagami Creek
NRS scientists are carrying out research and product development
Fire in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness in 2011 or the
studies that will increase our understanding of how the atmosphere
25,000-acre Mack Lake Fire in Michigan in 1980. Historically, several
interacts with wildland fires and are using this knowledge to develop
fires in the Midwest were terrible tragedies—Time magazine’s list of
new predictive tools for fire and air-quality managers.
Top 10 wildfires worldwide puts the October 1871 Peshtigo Fire in
Wisconsin as #1 (2,500 dead, 1.2 million acres burned, and 12 towns
Smoke Transport: For example, in the area of smoke transport,
destroyed) and the October 1918 Cloquet Fire in Minnesota as #7 (453
NRS scientists Warren Heilman, Jay Charney, and Xindi Bian, in
people dead, 250,000 acres and 52,000 homes burned, and 30 towns
collaboration with researchers Sharon Zhong and Michael Kiefer at
destroyed).
Michigan State University, are developing and evaluating a coupled
meteorological and smoke dispersion modeling system for predicting
Prescribed fires (that is, those set by land managers for a defined
the local atmospheric and air-quality impacts of low-intensity
goal), are used extensively in the Northeast and Midwest for fuels
prescribed surface fires carried out beneath forest canopies. This
management, assisting oak regeneration, and enhancing wildlife
modeling system (ARPS-CANOPY/PILT) is based on the Advanced
habitat. In addition, there are indigenous fire-dependent ecosystems
Regional Prediction System (ARPS) atmospheric model (developed
in these regions that burn frequently or need prescribed burning. (A
by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms at the University
fire-dependent ecosystem is an ecosystem that depends on periodic
of Oklahoma) coupled with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
wildland fires to maintain habitats, promote plant and wildlife diversity,
(PNNL) Integrated Lagrangian Transport (PILT) model. The system
and remove accumulations of live and dead plant material.) These
has been successfully applied to actual prescribed fire events in the
are the pitch pine barrens near the coastal Northeast, the oak-hickory
New Jersey Pine Barrens and used as an analysis tool for assessing
forests in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, the Midwest tallgrass
the air-quality impacts of a prescribed fire carried out at an EPA
prairies, and the jack pine communities in the Great Lakes region.
Superfund site in Pennsylvania. Further evaluations of the modeling
system are underway in preparation for integrating the system into an
Managing wildland fires in the densely populated Northeast and
appropriate operational smoke modeling framework. When integrated
Midwest is challenging. To aid fire managers in these regions, fire and
into such a framework, ARPS-CANOPY/PILT would offer fire managers
atmospheric scientists in the Forest Service’s Northern Research Station
an alternative tool for predicting how wildland fires in forested
(NRS) are developing new science-based tools to anticipate when and
environments will affect local air quality, which is a limitation of current
where extreme fire behavior will occur during wildfires and when and
operational air-quality predictive tools because they don’t account for
where smoke will adversely affect air quality.
the effects on forest overstory on local smoke transport.

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 Fire Weather: In the area of fire-weather processes, Charney is (Ruddy) Mell in the Pacific Northwest Research Station; Zhong and Kiefer
collaborating with Dan Keyser at the State University of New York at at Michigan State University; Matt Dickinson at the NRS laboratory in
Albany; Brian Colle at the State University of New York at Stony Brook; Delaware, OH; and Kathleen Kavanagh at the University of Idaho in the
Lifeng Luo at Michigan State University; and Alan Srock at St. Cloud use of the Wildland-urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) to
State University to investigate the representation of meteorological explicitly simulate elements of the combustion processes that determine
processes within weather prediction models and to develop new tools to the spread characteristics and intensity of a fire, and then compare the
help use model outputs to improve fire weather forecasting and inform simulations against high-resolution meteorological models such as
fire management decisions. These tools include assessments of (1) ARPS-CANOPY to verify that the weather components of the WFDS are
fire danger, which provide information about when weather conditions realistic. The results from both of the models are then used to assess
over the course of the next 1 to 5 days could promote the initiation and the extent to which prescribed fires and wildfires affect live trees and the
spread of wildland fires; and (2) fire behavior, which indicate the potential ecology of the affected forest. Finally, Heilman and Bian, in collaboration
for weather to impact an existing fire such that increasingly severe or with Craig Clements and Daisuke Seto at San Jose State University and
unexpected activity could occur that has the potential to endanger fire fellow NRS scientists John Hom at Newtown Square, PA; Kenneth Clark
crews or complicate management decisions. at the Silas Little Experimental Forest, New Lisbon, NJ; and Nicholas
Skowronski at Morgantown, WV, are involved in a number of wildland fire
Fire-Atmosphere Interaction: NRS researchers are also investigating experiments at the Silas Little EF to collect and analyze fire-atmosphere
how meteorological phenomena and structures affect the evolution of interaction data for assessing the role of atmospheric turbulence and
wildland fires. They use high-resolution imagery, coupled fire-atmosphere forest vegetation in affecting fire behavior and smoke transport. Results
models, and experimental data to simulate conditions and predict fire from this research point to the need for including forest canopy effects in
dangers. Heilman, Charney, and Bian are collaborating with William forecast tools used to predict how smoke from wildland fires is dispersed.

Prescribed fire in an oak savannah edge at Rocky Run State Natural Area in Wisconsin.
Photo by Nathan Fayram, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, used with permission.

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 Prescribed fire in southern pine plantation.
Photo by Scott Buell, Southern Fire Exchange,
used with permission.

The Eastern Area Modeling Consortium

Heilman, Charney, and Bian represent the NRS in the Eastern Area
Modeling Consortium (EAMC), one of five groups in the National
Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke
(FCAMMS) established in 2001 by the U.S. National Fire Plan.
The EAMC is a multi-agency, informal coalition of researchers, fire
managers, air-quality mangers, and natural resource managers at the
federal, state, and local levels. This coalition works together to identify
fire research needs, conduct fire-related scientific studies, develop
products, and transfer new scientific knowledge and technology related
to fire-weather dynamics, air-quality impacts, and fire-atmosphere
interactions to serve the needs of the fire management community,
air resource managers, scientists, and policymakers. Check out the
EAMC web site at www.nrs.fs.fed.us/eamc for further details about
the EAMC’s current research studies and for obtaining real-time fire-
weather predictions for the Midwest and Northeast. Fire personnel setting off prescribed
burn in Midwestern prairie. Photo by Sherry Leis, Fire Science
Program leader, Missouri State University, used with permission.

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 BIOGRAPHIES
Xindi (Randy) Bian is a meteorologist in the “Climate,
Fire, and Carbon Cycle Sciences” unit, at Lansing, MI;
he received an MS in water resources from Iowa State
University (1993), and BS (1982) and MS (1985) in
atmospheric sciences from Nanjing University, China.
He joined the Forest Service in 2002.

Joseph J. (Jay) Charney, a research meteorologist at

Lansing, MI, received his PhD in meteorology (1997)
and a BS in physics (1990) from The Pennsylvania
State University; he also received an MS in meteorology
(1992) from the University of Maryland. He joined the
Forest Service in 2001.

Warren E. Heilman is a research meteorologist

The research efforts of Heilman (center), Charney (left), and Bian (right)
stationed in Lansing, MI. He joined the Forest Service contribute to an improved understanding of fire-atmosphere interactions
in 1990 and received his PhD (1988) and MS (1984) in that will help produce the next generation of fire-weather, fire behavior, and
meteorology from Iowa State University and his BS in smoke dispersion predictive tools.
physics from South Dakota State University (1979). Photo by Sharon Hobrla, USFS.

RESOURCES AND REFERENCES Erickson MJ, Colle BA, Charney JJ. 2012: Impact of bias-correction
type and conditional training on Bayesian model averaging
Web Resources: over the northeast United States. Weather and Forecasting 27:
USFS Northern Research Station, Climate, Fire, and Carbon Cycle 1449-1469.
Sciences unit: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/units/climate/
Glickman D, Sherman H. 2014. Paying for the forest fire next time.
Fire Research and Management Exchanges: www.frames.gov/
New York Times June 17, 2014 (nytimes.com).
rcs/8000/8187.html
Eastern Area Modeling Consortium: www.nrs.fe.fed.us/eamc Heilman WE, Bian X. 2010. Turbulent kinetic energy during
Eastern Area Coordination Center: gacc.nifc.gov/eacc wildfires in the north central and north-eastern US.
Eastern area daily fire danger map: wfas.net/images/firedanger/ International Journal of Wildland Fire 19: 346-363.
subsets/fdc_f_ea.png Heilman WE, Bian X. 2013. Climatic variability of near-surface
Joint Fire Science Program: www.firescience.gov turbulent kinetic energy over the United States: Implications
National Interagency Fire Center, Boise, ID: www.nifc.gov for fire-weather predictions. Journal of Applied Meteorology and
National Fire Plan: www.forestandrangelands.gov Climatology 52: 753-772.
Silas Little Experimental Forest: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/ef/locations/nj/
Heilman WE, Liu Y, Urbanski S, Kovalev V, Mickler R. 2014.
silas-little/
Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Plume rise,
Fire predictions for 2014: www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/
atmospheric transport, and chemistry processes. Forest
statelinks.htm
Ecology and Management 317: 70-79.
Forest History Society: www.foresthistory.org/ASPNET/Policy/Fire/
Research/Research.aspx Kiefer MT, Heilman WE, Zhong S, Charney JJ, Bian X, Skowronski
Air Quality Index forecasts and publication: airnow.gov/ NS, Hom JL, Clark KL, Patterson M, Gallagher MR. 2014.
EPA brochure on smoke health effects: www.epa.gov/airnow/ Multiscale simulation of a prescribed fire event in the New
particle/pm-color.pdf Jersey Pine Barrens using ARPS-CANOPY. Journal of Applied
American Lung Association: www.lung.org/healthy-air/outdoor/ Meteorology and Climatology 53: 793-812.
protecting-your-health/what-makes-air-unhealthy/forest-fires- Liu Y, Goodrick S, Heilman W. 2014. Wildland fire emissions,
respiratory-health-fact-sheet.html carbon, and climate: Wildfire–climate interactions. Forest
Ecology and Management 317: 80-96.
References:
Pollina JB, Colle BA, Charney JJ. 2013. Climatology and
Charney JJ, Keyser D. 2010. Mesoscale model simulation of the
meteorological evolution of major wildfire events over the
meteorological conditions during the 2 June 2002 Double
northeast United States. Weather Forecasting 28: 175-193.
Trouble State Park wildfire. International Journal of Wildland
Fire 19: 427–448. Pyne, SJ. 1997. Fire in America: A cultural history of wildland and
rural fire. Seattle: University of Washington Press. [The definitive
history of wildfires in North America: pyne.faculty.asu.edu/]

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NRS Research Review is published quarterly by the There are 111 NRS scientists working at 20 field offices,
Communications and Science Delivery Group of the Northern Research 24 experimental forests, and universities located across 20 states,
Station (NRS), U.S. Forest Service. As part of the Nation’s largest from Maine to Maryland, Missouri to Minnesota.
forestry research organization, NRS serves the Northeast and Midwest
and beyond, providing the latest research on current problems and
issues affecting forests and the people who depend on them. Our
research themes are (1) Forest Disturbance Processes, (2) Urban Natural
Resources Stewardship, (3) Sustaining Forests, (4) Providing Clean Air
and Water, and (5) Natural Resources Inventory and Monitoring.

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