Alphabrain: How A Group of Iconoclasts Are Using Cognitive Science To Advance The Business of Alpha Generation Stephen Duneier
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Table of Contents
Cover
Preface
How a Mistake Made Me a Better Investor
About the Author
Part I: Decision Analysis
Chapter 1: Marginal Improvement, Significant Impact
Decision‐Making as a Skill
Spectators in Our Own Decisions
Marginal Improvement and Its Outcomes
Marginally Speaking
The Power of Avoiding Mistakes
Chapter 2: Blinded by Bias
Mistakes and Markets
Blind to Our Blindness
Minimizing Effort
Chapter 3: Rational Decisions
The Science of Decision‐Making
Swing Analysis for Portfolio Managers
Asking the Right Questions
Mistakes in Common
Descriptive versus Prescriptive Decision Theory
Chapter 4: Decision Analysis
We Are All Students of the Same Game
Decision Analysis
The Biggest Mistake in Decision‐Making
Chapter 5: How to Solve Any Problem
Close Enough
We See What We Are Shown
Stay Home, See the World
ABQs of Research (Always Be Questioning)
Working Smarter, Not Harder
How Information Can Lead Us Astray
Postscript
Chapter 6: Cerebral Junk Food
10 Reasons Listicles Are Bad for Your Health
You've Been Framed
A Picture Is Worth a Thousand Biased Words
How We Manufacture Uncertainty and Volatility
What Dieting Taught Me About Consuming
Information
Chapter 7: The Input Paradox
Bowflex Behavior Modifier 2000
Dieter's Paradox
Negative Calorie Foods
Diversifier's Paradox
Illusory Invulnerability
Chapter 8: Auditing Mental Accounting
Example 1: Wasteful Education
Example 2: Drunken Economics
Example 3: Bet the House
Example 4: Half Off
How to Stop Turning Winners into Losers
Part II: Decisions in the Financial Context
Chapter 9: Mistakes at the Heart of Investment
Management
A Common Risk Management Mistake
Why Risk Takers Stopped Taking Risk
Chapter 10: Manager Selection
Designing a Manager Selection Algorithm
Flipping the Frame
Stroke of Genius
The Definition of Actionable Intelligence
What Allocators Can Learn From Paper Traders
Chapter 11: Prophecy of Value
From Scalping to Trading
How Regret Makes Us Do Things We'll Regret
What Would You Do?
P&L Driven P&L
Chapter 12: Mind over Matter
Painfully Aware
Fooled by Stability
The 20/80 Rule
Why Size Matters
Lessons from Nick Saban and the Octagon
Doubling Down on Luck
Capitalizing on Change
Chapter 13: Coaching
Why Coaching Is a Waste of Time and Money
Why Even the Best Seek Coaching
The Power of Confronting Fear
Chapter 14: Trading Decisions
What Makes Trading So Difficult
The Freedom of a Straightjacket
The Natural Beauty of (Decision) Trees
Chapter 15: How to Stop Losing Money
How to Stop Losing Money on the Right View
I Knew It!
Stop‐Loss Trade Entry
Easy Money
Positive Expectancy
Three Key Reasons Investors Should Use Options but
Rarely Do
Chapter 16: The Danger of Shortcuts
Blinded by Myopia
Odometer Readings and Negative Interest Rates
Anchored to Missed Opportunities
Chapter 17: The Power of the Unexpected
Unconscious Influence
Ready, Fire, Aim
The Real Reason Commodities Collapsed
Slower Is Faster
Index
End User License Agreement
List of Tables
Chapter 1
Table 1.1 Novak Djokovic's overall performance, 2004–2016
Table 1.2 Novak Djokovic's performance, 2004–2016,
including points won
Chapter 9
Table 9.1 Jim's performance by month and year.
Table 9.2 Jim's performance with updated allocation.
Table 9.3 The initial $400 million investment, as a separate
series from the add...
Table 9.4 NFL 2014 season: points scored and games won.
Chapter 12
Table 12.1 Investment performance with and without
systematic adjustments
Chapter 14
Table 14.1 Prior to court ruling
Table 14.2 Decision matrix
Table 14.3 Seven scenarios: probability
Table 14.4 After court ruling
Chapter 16
Table 16.1 Actual versus predicted percentages of DAX
winning streak
List of Illustrations
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1 The Power of Avoiding Mistakes
Figure 1.2 Possessing a Competitive Edge
Chapter 2
Figure 2.1 Guilt threshold influence on verdict.
Figure 2.2 Rubik's Cube.
Figure 2.3 The brown and orange squares.
Figure 2.4 Hexadecimal code of the two squares.
Figure 2.5 What the brain sees.
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1 Lots of data from a small sample.
Figure 3.2 Age as related to fatal auto accidents.
Figure 3.3 Mistakes exist between how a decision is made
and how it should be ma...
Chapter 5
Figure 5.1 A portion of Brad Pitt's eyeball at 30x zoom.
Figure 5.2 Close‐up of Chuck Close painting.
Figure 5.3 Twelve black dots on a dark‐gray grid.
Figure 5.4 Twelve black dots on a light‐gray grid
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1 Rental prices for top‐floor NYC apartments based
on the label ($0–$1...
Figure 6.2 How to make smoking seem healthy.
Figure 6.3 CIPA camera production, 1947–2014.
Figure 6.4 Sven Skafisk's presentation of CIPA camera
production, 1947–2014.
Figure 6.5 Counties with the lowest 10% age‐standardized
death rates for cancer ...
Figure 6.6 Probability of o‐ring failure
Chapter 8
Figure 8.1 USD/JPY spot
Chapter 10
Figure 10.1 Masters golf tournament.
Chapter 12
Figure 12.1 Scenario analysis: portfolio manager allocations
Chapter 14
Figure 14.1 A bullish investor
Figure 14.2 Expected trading range
Figure 14.3 Price action
Figure 14.4 Price moves down
Figure 14.5 Peak confidence
Figure 14.6 Spot trading probability
Figure 14.7 The effect of changing a stop‐loss
Figure 14.8 Factors in a decision
Figure 14.9 Initial decision tree (left) compared with
probability‐guided decisi...
Figure 14.10 Post‐announcement decision tree
Figure 14.11 Post‐ruling decision tree
Figure 14.12 Scenario 1 decision tree
Figure 14.13 Scenario 2 decision tree
Figure 14.14 Scenario 3 decision tree
Figure 14.15 Scenario 4 decision tree
Figure 14.16 Scenario 6 decision tree
Figure 14.17 Scenario 7 decision tree
Figure 14.18 Decision tree for Scenarios 1–7
Figure 14.19 Relevant variables only
Figure 14.20 Expectations for each branch segment
Figure 14.21 Private equity deal
Figure 14.22 Bad year 1
Figure 14.23 Bad year 2
Figure 14.24 Full expected returns in year 1
Figure 14.25 Shifting stop‐loss higher (left) compared with
proper stop‐loss pla...
Chapter 15
Figure 15.1 Commodity currency charts
Figure 15.2 USD/JPY spot
Figure 15.3 Probability distribution
Chapter 16
Figure 16.1 Auto odometer and value
Figure 16.2 Data mapped as a function of value
Figure 16.3 Velocity of money
Chapter 17
Figure 17.1 Long‐term commodity charts
Figure 17.2 China's urbanization project
Figure 17.3 Durable consumer goods penetration in China
Figure 17.4 Annual disposable income per capita in China
Figure 17.5 China's urban population
Figure 17.6 Price and population in Victorian England
Figure 17.7 Peak oil
Figure 17.8 Production‐weighted average miles per gallon
AlphaBrain
Stephen Duneier
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Copyright © 2019 by Stephen Duneier. All rights reserved.
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To my wife, Barbara, my daughter, Masie, and my son, Jackson,
who will never stop helping me find my swing.
Preface
I began my career in finance in 1987 as a stockbroker at Drexel
Burnham, back in the days of Michael Milken. I then traded exotic
derivatives at Credit Suisse before there were standard pricing
models. I ran currency option trading globally for Bank of America
and emerging markets for AIG International. I spent 12 years as a
global macro hedge fund portfolio manager, directly overseeing as
much as $916 million in assets under management, and I founded
and ran two hedge funds.
At about the same time I entered the industry, I began studying the
cognitive sciences, particularly behavioral psychology and decision
theory. So, as I was developing my own style, my own unique
approach to investment and business management, I would apply
everything I was learning about how the brain works, how we
approach problems and make decisions to solve them.
As it turns out, when you do that, you wind up doing things very
differently than most. But it wasn't just the approach that made me
unique; it was the results it delivered that truly set me apart. For
instance, in the first 12 months after I took over at Bank of America,
we increased revenues by 70% without increasing costs at all. We did
so on the back of a marginal adjustment to the way we made
decisions as a group. In my first year running emerging markets for
AIG International, we went from being the worst performing unit in
the business to the best, as a result of a marginal adjustment to the
way we approached problems. Over a 12‐year career as a global
macro hedge fund manager, I generated 20.3% average annualized
returns spanning quiet markets, high‐volatility periods, and chaotic
moments, with a Sortino ratio that was twice my Sharpe.
When I took the helm at one hedge fund, we were on the brink of
failure. We had let go all nonessential personnel, cut salaries to the
bone, and hadn't raised a penny in assets since launch nor made a
penny for our investors. Over the next 13 months, we increased
assets under management 12‐fold, from $100 million to $1.25 billion,
beat our benchmark index by 2500 basis points net of fees, and every
single portfolio manager had his career best year – all because of a
few marginal adjustments to our decision‐making process.
As happy as I have been with the results, anyone who has studied
decision‐making knows that what I've just listed are outcomes. We
don't control outcomes. What we do control are all the tiny little
decisions that we make along the way. Decisions that must be made
rationally in order to improve the odds of achieving the outcomes we
desire.
The majority of books on the subject of cognitive science focus on
presenting evidence of our flaws. I don't want to discount the value
of that evidence. It is essential material, for unless we accept that we
are all susceptible to bias and other shortcomings that unconsciously
lead to systematic errors in judgment, it is nearly impossible to
overcome it. If you can't overcome it, you are as good as you will ever
be.
AlphaBrain differs from the other books in that it applies these
abstract, seemingly academic concepts to the industry of institutional
investment management, but takes it one step further. Rather than
simply make readers aware of our flaws, we will explore actual
solutions to real world problems. Instead of reading yet another book
on cognitive bias, then setting it down and going about your business
in exactly the same way as you had been, you should expect to set the
book down numerous times in order to contemplate your own
actions as an institutional investor, and begin implementing real
change. In order for that to happen, for you to experience a leap
forward in the evolution of your decision‐making, I must first
convince you that you are as vulnerable to those mistakes as every
other human being. The fact that you are likely very intelligent, well
educated, experienced, and perhaps successful already, it makes my
job that much more difficult.
I know from experience how difficult it is to read the works of
Kahneman, Ariely, and Tversky, and see yourself as their flawed
subjects, but until you do, the odds of you actually learning from it
and experiencing that leap forward are drastically reduced. Let me
share with you how I made the leap.
How a Mistake Made Me a Better Investor
Daniel Kahneman, one of the leading experts in cognitive psychology
and author of some of the most widely read books on the subject,
discusses the futility of teaching his findings in a section of Thinking,
Fast and Slow, titled “Can Psychology Be Taught?” You'll have to
read the book to learn why he came to “the uncomfortable conclusion
that teaching psychology is mostly a waste of time,” but I will share
with you how I arrived at that same conclusion, as well as the
mistake I made more than 20 years ago that enabled me to break
through the barrier, shifting from a spectator to a practitioner.
One of the fundamental tenets of cognitive psychology is that we
essentially have two systems at work in our brain. Kahneman calls
them “System 1 and System 2,” although Richard Thaler and Cass
Sunstein refer to them as “Planner and Doer.” What you call them
isn't nearly as important as recognizing that there is a part of your
cognition that is automated, intuitive, and quick to draw conclusions,
whereas the other part is more deliberate, methodical, and
intellectually demanding. When you read about these abstract
characters, you may or may not agree that they relate to you, but you
undoubtedly recognize their existence in others. Even if you do see
these two distinct systems playing a role in your decision‐making, it's
unlikely you could do so in real time. Of course, with the benefit of
hindsight, your task is made much simpler.
If your decision resulted in an unfavorable outcome, you are likely to
attribute the decision to System 1 thinking, a temporary lapse in
judgment, bad luck, or perhaps another person. If the result is
positive, of course, we rarely seek an external source to apportion
credit, least of all, luck.
In the moment, though, when we are gathering information,
interpreting it, processing it, drawing conclusions from it or making
decisions based upon it, it is almost impossible for us to recognize
whether we are employing mental shortcuts that are likely to result
in a systematic error in judgment or if we are objectively analyzing
the situation, drawing upon our wealth of knowledge and experience
to reach a thoughtful conclusion. I mean, how do you define an
action as dogmatic versus disciplined, before the outcome is known?
How do you differentiate between an impulsive decision and one
based on educated intuition until after the result is experienced? The
truth is, although the difference may appear glaringly obvious with
the benefit of hindsight, it can only truly be objectively judged at the
moment of inception. Those who have difficulty coming to terms
with that subtle, yet significant difference likely have a great distance
to cover before becoming practitioners of cognitive science
themselves.
So, how was I able to make the leap from someone who had spent
years simply studying the cognitive sciences to becoming a
practitioner? I owe it all to my mother‐in‐law and a simple mistake I
made on March 24, 1994. I know the exact date because it occurred
in the hospital, one day after my first child was born. My mother‐in‐
law asked if I'd like something for lunch and I gave her my order.
Forty‐five minutes later, she returned, handing me a sandwich and
saying, “Here's your veal parmigiana hero.” My hand automatically
jerked away. “I didn't order a veal parmigiana hero,” I stated
emphatically. She insisted I had and we went back and forth before I
finally introduced reason to the rhetoric.
I explained that while the veal parmigiana hero had been one of my
favorite foods as a kid, after seeing a video years earlier which
showed how calves are treated in order to make veal, I had made a
conscious decision never to eat veal again – which is how I knew
beyond the shadow of a doubt that I hadn't ordered a veal
parmigiana hero this time. She apologized, I skipped lunch, and life
went on.
A few months later my wife and I looked through pictures from the
birth, as well as video we had taken around that time. That's when
my life changed forever. It turns out that someone had been taking
video in the room when I gave my lunch order. On the screen, I saw a
person who looked just like me, and who sounded just like me say to
my mother‐in‐law, “I'll have a veal parmigiana hero, please.” It was
like an out‐of‐body experience. I get chills to this day when I think
about it. Immediately, my mind attempted to make sense of it all.
Someone dubbed over my voice. Someone doctored the tape.
Someone went to a lot of trouble to make me look foolish. The truth,
of course, was a whole lot simpler, and there was no getting around
it. In that moment when I had ordered the sandwich, my mind was
engaged elsewhere, and that left System 1 or the “Doer” alone to hear
the question, interpret it, process it, and answer it, all without me
even being aware. You see, veal occupied a much greater portion of
my memory than did eggplant. Avoiding veal was a conscious
decision, but on that day my choice had been made unconsciously,
even though I was wide awake and conversing. The result was a
mistake, a poor decision, yet I had no idea I had made it and without
the video evidence I would forever believe I was in the right and my
mother‐in‐law had been at fault.
That was the last time I have ever felt 100% sure about anything that
relied on my memory. It's also the moment when I truly understood
what Kahneman, Thaler, Sunstein, and others meant in all those
books, and rather than treating mistakes like these as remote
possibilities, I came to see them as facts of life. If I was going to avoid
them, I would have to make my vulnerability a fundamental part of
my assumptions, and make the appropriate adjustments to my
decision‐making process.
Acknowledgments
My first debt in life goes to my loving parents, Fred and Shelly
Duneier. The book's dedication records my boundless love for my
wife, son, and daughter. I will forever be grateful to my sister,
Michelle Duneier Donner, and her husband, Craig Donner; my sister,
Allison Duneier Cohen, and her husband, Todd Cohen.
I am also filled with appreciation for my sister and brother‐in‐law,
Jackie Ripps Fodiman and Robert Fodiman; my brother‐in‐law,
Richie Ripps; my late mother‐in‐law, Ginny Ripps; and my father‐in‐
law, Marvin Ripps, and his wife, Gloria Ripps. My nieces and
nephews deserve special thanks: Matt, Caitlin, and Garrett Donner;
Kendall and Devon Cohen; Sydney, Ray, and Morgan Fodiman.
In each stage of my life I was fortunate to have acquired a true
friend: Eric Wesch, Matt Haudenschield, Anders Faergemann, Lynda
Kestenbaum, and Warren & Melissa Matthews.
For his expertise, thank you to my cousin Mitchell Duneier. In
bringing this book to life against all odds, I thank my esteemed
colleague, Jake Vincent. The book could not have been completed
without his brilliance. Christina Verigan of John Wiley & Sons
encouraged me to pursue this project. Her extraordinary support,
wise advice, and editorial touch were indispensable. She was the
greatest editor I could ever hope for.
Finally, I wish to thank my fiber arts community, my Bija Advisors
clients and subscribers, my faculty colleagues at UCSB, and my
students over many years for taking the red pill with me.
About the Author
For nearly 30 years, Stephen Duneier has applied cognitive science
to investment and business management. The result has been the
turnaround of numerous institutional trading businesses, career best
returns for experienced portfolio managers who have adopted his
methods, the development of a $1.25 billion hedge fund, and 20.3%
average annualized returns as a global macro portfolio manager. A
visiting professor of decision analysis and behavioral investing in the
College of Engineering at the University of California, Santa Barbara,
Duneier holds an MBA from New York University's Stern School of
Business.
Through Bija Advisors' coaching, workshops, and publications, he
helps the world's most successful and experienced institutional
investors improve performance by applying proven, proprietary
decision‐making methods to their own processes.
Duneier was formerly global head of currency option trading at Bank
of America, managing director in charge of emerging markets at AIG
International, and founding partner of award winning hedge funds.
Duneier's artwork has been featured in international publications
and on television programs around the world. It is represented by
the renowned gallery, Sullivan Goss, and has earned him more than
60,000 followers across social media, as well as a Guinness world
record. As Commissioner of the League of Professional Educators,
Duneier is using cognitive science to alter the landscape of American
K–12 education.
As a speaker, he has delivered informative and inspirational talks to
audiences around the world for more than 20 years on topics
including how cognitive science can improve performance and the
keys to living a more deliberate life.
Duneier is originally from Long Island, New York, and has lived with
his wife, Barbara, and their two children in London and Santa
Barbara.
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A study of one hundred incorrect diagnoses found that
inadequate medical knowledge was the reason for error in only
four instances. The doctors didn't stumble because of their
ignorance of clinical facts; rather, they missed diagnoses
because they fell into cognitive traps. Such errors produce a
distressingly high rate of misdiagnosis.
—Jerome Groopman, MD, author of How Doctors Think
Yep. Inside each and every one of us is one true authentic
swing. Somethin' we was born with. Somethin' that's ours and
ours alone. Somethin' that can't be taught to ya or learned.
Somethin' that's got to be remembered. Over time the world
can rob us of that swing. It gets buried inside us.
—The Legend of Bagger Vance
Part I
Decision Analysis
Chapter 1
Marginal Improvement, Significant
Impact
Decision‐Making as a Skill
What we do as human beings is make decisions. Whether we are
investment managers, athletes, parents, or students, the one true
commonality we share is the decision itself. Regardless of the
implications, who is making the decision or the field in which it is
being made, the decision‐making process always has the same basic
components and should always follow the same path.
Decision‐making is a skill. In fact, I would argue it is the skill that we
humans possess. However, it is rarely understood to be the
underlying source of all other more readily identifiable skills.
Instead, we look at a tennis player and think, he is skilled at swinging
a racquet or chasing down balls. We look at a politician and think,
she is particularly adept at negotiating or salesmanship. We think of
successful fund managers and attribute their success to their ability
to identify patterns or steel their nerves under pressure. In reality,
steeling your nerves is a decision, a skill that can be taught and
learned. Swinging a racquet properly and influencing others are
decisions as well. They can be taught and learned. They can be
practiced and improved via the decision‐making process. When you
truly grasp this concept, and are able to properly frame everything by
the decision, to view the world through the lens of the decision‐
making process, you come to realize that in order to truly excel at
anything in life, both personally and professionally, you must focus
on the decision as a problem to be solved.
A professional athlete cannot simply turn off the decision‐making
process when they aren't on the playing field. To make optimal
decisions at the baseline, they must make the right nutritional
decisions, practice decisions, footwork decisions, rest decisions,
investment decisions, coaching decisions, and so on, even when they
are nowhere near the court. To be world‐class tennis stars, they must
analyze their decisions, refine them, gather data on them, and
approach them deliberately. It is a 24/7 job to reach and maintain
their positions as among the greatest players of all time. Same goes
for surgeons, actors, and yes, investors.
Becoming a world‐class decision maker isn't a 9‐to‐5 job, it is a
lifestyle. It requires not just practice, but repeated, deliberate
practice. The kind that requires the employment of cognitive strain, a
concept we will return to over and over again throughout this book.
It is challenging. It requires sacrifice and a significant investment of
time and effort. AlphaBrain is fundamentally a book about how to
improve your decision‐making as it applies to institutional investing,
but the concepts and the science behind it are applicable to any one
of the millions of decisions made on a daily basis by every single one
of us in every aspect of our lives.
About this time the Levant Company suffered somewhat from the
conflicting state of parties in England. Sir S. Crowe was appointed in
1642 as ambassador of the Levant Company; he was a staunch loyalist,
and, during his tenure of office abroad, his goods in England were
confiscated by the Parliamentarians. On hearing this, Sir S. Crowe
imprisoned many of the English factors in Constantinople, and
appropriated their goods. The Parliamentarians forthwith obliged the
Company to send out another representative, Sir J. Bendish, who, after
some difficulty, succeeded in establishing himself as the ambassador of
England, and Sir S. Crowe was sent home. On arriving in London, he
was impeached at the suit of the Company, condemned, and kept in
prison till 1653.
The regulations of the Company with regard to their employés were
very strict in those days; none of the consuls under their authority might
marry without the consent of the directors, and the factors or merchants
at Constantinople and elsewhere in the Levant frequently received
admonitions from the governing body at home against “sensuality,
gambling, Sabbath-breaking, neglect of public worship”, and other
irregularities of life in which the merchants, far from the influence of
their strait-laced relatives at home, were prone to indulge.
In 1661 the Earl of Winchilsea went out on The Plymouth as
ambassador for the Company. Captain Hayward was in command of the
vessel, with whom Pepys (p. 50) made merry at the Rhenish Wine
House. Lord Winchilsea is described as “a jovial Lord, extremely
favoured by Vizier Kiuprili”. Two Kiuprilis, father and son, were practically
the rulers of Turkey from 1658 to the death of the latter in 1676. Both
the Kiuprilis were men of exceedingly good powers of organisation, and
raised Turkey to comparative power, despite the weakness of her
princes. The Sultan Mahomed IV, about whom Dr. Covel in his MS. tells
us so much, was a man of weak character, devoted only to the chase,
and left the organisation of the empire to his Vizier. From him Lord
Winchilsea obtained further capitulations, an account of which is given
us by his secretary, Paul Ricaut, in a pamphlet entitled The Capitulations
and Articles published by Paul Ricaut, Esquire, Secretary to his
Excellencie the Lord Ambassador, in 1663, and addressed to the
Governors of the Levant Company. In this pamphlet he says: “The first
capitulations took place 80 years before, in Queen Elizabeth’s reign, and
have been enlarged in the time of allmost every ambassador, with such
alterations as the state of affaires, and the abuses, and the iniquities of
the times suggested.” The principal grievance which this set of
capitulations rectified was “that English ships should be exempt from
search for foreign goods”. Mahomed IV, in his address to Charles II, on
the occasion of the granting of these capitulations, speaks in high-flown
language of “the Queen of the aforesaid Kingdom” who commenced the
Levant trade.
A curious and ludicrous instance of the fanaticism of the times
occurred in 1661. An individual called “John the Quaker” arrived at
Constantinople, and began to preach at the street corners repentance to
the Turks in his own native tongue. Naturally enough, the
Mohammedans looked upon him as a lunatic, and consigned him to a
mad-house, where he languished for eight months, until his nationality
was discovered, and he was taken before Lord Winchilsea. On entering
the ambassador’s presence, true to the regulations of his creed, John
refused to remove his hat, whereupon he was bastinadoed; and, on his
clothes being examined, a letter was discovered in his pocket addressed
to the Sultan, politely telling that monarch that he was the scourge
employed by God to punish wicked Christians.
There was a distinct revival at this juncture in the condition of the
power of the Ottoman Turks at Constantinople; under the severe rule of
the elder Kiuprili, and the firm but temperate jurisdiction of his son
Ahmed, both internal and external affairs prospered favourably. Ahmed
Kiuprili conducted the wars with Austria with a fair amount of success.
He won Crete for the Turks, in 1669, from the Venetian general
Morosini; the wars with Sobieski, under his guidance, were, with certain
fluctuations, favourable to the Turks. He, in 1675, instituted the levy of
3,000 boys from the Christian population to fill the ranks of the
Janissaries; and three days after the peace of Zuranna, by which the
Turks regained much of their lost military prestige, he died, very shortly
after the events related in such minute detail by Dr. Covel in our second
manuscript, and very shortly after the ratification of further capitulations
with the Levant Company at Adrianople; the incidents concerning the
obtaining of which Dr. Covel relates so graphically.
1599.
In this Book is the Account of an Organ
Carryed to the Grand Seignor and Other
Curious Matter.
Nessecaries for my voyege into Turkie, the which I bought upon a
verrie short warninge, havinge no frend to advise me in any thinge.
400 L.
150
200
090
250
1090 Leages.
DALLAM’S TRAVELS
WITH AN
ORGAN TO THE GRAND SIGNIEUR.
A brefe Relation of my Travell[18] from The Royall Cittie of
London towardes The Straites of Mariemediteranum, and
what hapened by the waye.
Marche 1599.
The 20th Day, the wynde sarvinge well, we paste the Northe Cape,
and entered the bay of Portingale. The 23 we Recovered the Soothe
Cape. Than we weare becalmed for a time. The 24 thare came an
Infinite company of porposis aboute our ship, the which did leape and
Rone (run) marvalusly. The 25 we saw 2 or 3 greate monstrus fishis or
whales, the which did spoute water up into the eayere, lyke as smoke
dothe assend out of a chimnay. Sometime we myghte se a great parte
of there bodye above the water. The calme did yeat continue. The 27,
havinge a verrie fayer wynde, the which did blow a good gale aboute 12
or one of the clocke, we entered the straytes of Marie-medeteranum in
Dispite of our enymyes. At the entrie it is butt 3 Leages at the moste
from shore to shore. In my thinkinge it seemed not to be above 3
myles, but the Reason of yt is because the Lande is verrie hie on bothe
sides, Spayne on our Lefte hand, and Barberie of the Ryghte. On
Spayne side we did se a verrie fayer towne or cittie, caled Tarrefe,[33]
the which stood verrie pleasantlye close to the seae. On Barbarie side
Thar is a myghtie mountayn of Rockes, the which theye do call Ape hill.
[34] 7 Leages further, on Spayne side, thar is a verrie strone (strong)
towne Caled Jebbatore.[35] This towne Lay verrie fayer to our vew. It is
verrie well fortified, and of greate strengthe. Thare dothe also Ly a
greate number of the king of Spayens gallies and men of warr, to keepe
the straites. On the easte side of the towne tharis a greate mountayne,
wheare on a great parte of the towne dothe stande. This mountayne is
verrie upryghte on bothe sides, but on the easte sid it is so uprighte that
no man can go to the top of it. It standes cross wyse to the seae. On
the fore end tharis a stronge bullworke, by which means the towne is
more secure.
We sett oute from Plimmouthe the 16th of Marche, havinge than
verrie could wether, and no sine of any grene thinge on trees or hedgis;
and the 27, at the entringe of the straites, the wether was exsedinge
hoote, and we myghte se the feeldes on bothe sides verrie grene, and
the tres full blowne, the which unto me was a verrie greate wonder to
finde suche an alteration in a 11 dayes. Ryghte over againste Jeblatore,
on Barbarie side, thar is a towne verrie fayer to our vew, caled Shutte.
[36] This towne is waled aboute, and the feldes about it verrie
pleasante, and of good soyle.
Thoughe on bothe sides of seae tharis hudge mountains and Raged
Rockes, on the Easte end of this towne a litle tharis a Large and stronge
bullworke (or forte), and the Lyke is on the weste side. The kinge of
Spayne Dothe also houlde that toune, beinge in Barberie.
A litle further on the Coste of Spayne thar is a Towne caled Marvels,
[37] but I could not well disarne it for the fogge which at that time Laye
upon the seae. The nexte towne is caled grand Malligan,[38] and than
Sallabrin,[39] which towne is fortie Leages easte of Jeblatore.
The 28 of Marche we sayled still a longe by the shore of Spayne,
wheare we myghte se upon hudg mountaynes great store snowe that
Dothe ly thare contenually, and yeate in the vallies below it is verrie
hote.
The 29th daye we sayled by the shore of Africa.
The 30th daye we entered into a harber in Barberia, Caled Argeare.
[40]
When we weare upon the sea before the towne it made a verrie fayer
show. It Lyethe cloce to the seae, upon a verrie upryghte hill. The
towne in proportion is Lyke a top sayle. It is verrie strongly waled about
with tow wales and a dich.
The housis be bulte of Lyme and stone. The greateste parte of the
towne, or housis in the towne, have flatt Roufes, covered artifitialy with
playster of paris. A man beinge on the topp of one house may goo over
the greateste parte of the towne. Diverse of the streetes ar verrie
narrow and uneasie goinge in them, for the towne standes upon
Rockes. Above the towne, upon the top of the hill, thar is a castell, the
which may comande the Roode, or a parte of the seae before the
towne. Almoste a myle from that castell into the contriewardes thare is
an other castell, the which is gardede or kepte by a sartaine number of
souldieres; but, as farr as I could Learne, it is but only to keepe the
heade of there springes of water, which com to there fountaines in the
town, for the Turkes Drinke nothinge but water; and they saye that hors
and man maye goo under, or in the earthe, from that castell to the
towne. I and 3 or 4 more wente yeat a myle further into the contrie,
wheare we saw another castell, the which, as we did thinke, was made
for the same use. We went so farr into the contrie at the Requeste of
Mr. Chancie, who was our fysition and surgin for the seae. He wente to
gather som harbs and Routes. This dai being the Laste Day of Marche, it
was a wonder to us to se how forwarde the springe was: trees and
hedgis wear full blowne, corne, wheate, and barly shott, yong oringis
and apples upon the trees; and cominge againe into the towne, we mett
Mores and other people drivinge assis laden with grene beanes, to be
sould in the markett. As they went a Longe the streete, they often
would cale to the people, and say, balocke, balocke, that is to saye,
bewarr, or take heede. We saw diverse Moores com in riding, all naked,
savinge a litle clothe before them like a childe’s apron. Som of them did
carrie a darte, otheres a bowe and arros.
There be also a greate number of Jewes, but the greateste nomber be
Turkes.
The toune or cittie is verrie full of people, for it is a place of great trad
and marchandise. They have tow markett dayes in the weeke, unto the
which do com a great number of people out of the mountaines and
other partes of the contrie, bringinge in great store of corne and frute of
all sortes, and fowle, bothe wylde and tame. Thar be great store of
partridgis and quales, the which be sould verrie cheape, a partridge for
less than one pennye, and 3 quales at the same price. Thar be also
great store of henes and chickins, for they be hatchte by artificiall
meanes, in stoves or hote housis, without the helpe of a hen. The
maner of it I cannot at this time playnly discribe, but heareafter I may,
yf God permitte.
They have also greate store of Camels, assis, asnegoes,[41] oxon,
horsis, and som dromedaries. Thar be a greate number of Turks that be
but Renied[42] cristians of all nations. Som, but moste are Spanyardes,
Italians, and other Ilands adjoyninge, who, when they be taken, ar
compelled so to doo, or els to live in moche more slaverie and myserie.
But, in prosis of time, these Renied cristians do become most berberus
and villanus, taking pleasur in all sinfull actions; but that which is worste
of all they take moste delite in, and that is, Theye proule aboute the
costes of other contries, with all the skill and pollacie thei can, to
betraye cristians, which they sell unto the Moors and other marchantes
of Barbarie for slaves.
Thare ar in this toune great store of hote houses, or bathes, the
which they call bangowes,[43] and also cooke’s housis, that dress meate
verrie well.
The next day after we came into the Roode, the kinge sent worde to
our captaine that he should come unto him and bringe with hime the
presente which he had to carrie unto the Grand Sinyor; so our captaine
wente unto him and tould the kinge That the presente which he carried
to the grand sinyor was not only a thinge of greate substance and
charge, but allso it was Defficulte curios, and would aske a longe time to
put it together, and make it fitt to be sene. When the kinge understode
whate our captaine had saide, he would give no cridite unto his wordes,
but kepte him as a prisner, and caused me and my mate to be sente for.
When we came before him, and wear examened, he found us to be in
the same tale that our captaine had toulde; and than was our captane
Released and we discharged, and the kinge sente our captaine for a
presente a borde our shipe tow buls and thre sheepe, the which weare
verrie leane, for they do thinke the worste thinges they have is tow
good for cristians. They ar all in generall verrie covitus, and use all the
pollacie they can to gitt from the cristians, lawfully or unlawfully, as
moche as they maye.
The Turkishe and Morishe weomen do goo all wayes in the streetes
with there facis covered, and the common reporte goethe thare that
they beleve, or thinke that the weomen have no souls. And I do thinke
that it weare well for them if they had none, for they never goo to
churche, or other prayers, as the men dothe. The men ar verrie relidgus
in there kinde, and they have verrie faire churchis, which they do call
mosques.