Introduction to Simulation and Modeling- Lecture I

The overall aim of this course, CSC 411 is to introduce you to basic concepts of
Modelling and Simulation in order to enable you to understand the basic
elements of Simulation use in day-to-day activities especially, businesses,
Sciences and Technology industries. This course highlights methodology and
approaches in the conduct of simulation. In this course of your studies, you will
be put through the definitions of common terms in relation to modelling and
simulation, the methodology, theories, experiments and languages use in
conducting simulations.

Modelling & Simulation -

Introduction
Model: A simplified representation of a system, process, or phenomenon. It
can be physical, mathematical, or computational.

Simulation: Running the model to study its behavior over time or under
certain scenarios.

Modelling is the process of generating abstract, conceptual, graphical and/or

mathematical models. Science offers a growing collection of methods,
techniques and theory about all kinds of specialized scientific modelling. This
model is similar to a real system, which helps the analyst predict the effect of
changes to the system. In other words, modelling is creating a model which
represents a system including their properties. It is an act of building a model.

Simulation of a system is the operation of a model in terms of time or space,

which helps analyze the performance of an existing or a proposed system. In
other words, simulation is the process of using a model to study the
performance of a system. It is an act of using a model for simulation.

Modeling and simulation (M&S) involve creating a mathematical or computational

representation of a system or process to analyze, test, and predict its behavior
under various conditions.

History of Simulation
The historical perspective of simulation is as enumerated in a chronological
order.

 1940 − A method named ‘Monte Carlo’ was developed by researchers

(John von Neumann, Stanislaw Ulan, Edward Teller, Herman Kahn) and
physicists working on a Manhattan project to study neutron scattering.
  1960 − The first special-purpose simulation languages were developed,
such as SIMSCRIPT by Harry Markowitz at the RAND Corporation.
 1970 − During this period, research was initiated on mathematical
foundations of simulation.
 1980 − During this period, PC-based simulation software, graphical user
interfaces and object-oriented programming were developed.
 1990 − During this period, web-based simulation, fancy animated
graphics, simulation-based optimization, Markov-chain Monte Carlo
methods were developed.

Developing Simulation Models

Simulation models consist of the following components: system entities, input
variables, performance measures, and functional relationships. Following are the
steps to develop a simulation model.

 Step 1 − Identify the problem with an existing system or set

requirements of a proposed system.
 Step 2 − Design the problem while taking care of the existing system
factors and limitations.
 Step 3 − Collect and start processing the system data, observing its
performance and result.
 Step 4 − Develop the model using network diagrams and verify it using
various verifications techniques.
 Step 5 − Validate the model by comparing its performance under various
conditions with the real system.
 Step 6 − Create a document of the model for future use, which includes
objectives, assumptions, input variables and performance in detail.
 Step 7 − Select an appropriate experimental design as per requirement.
 Step 8 − Induce experimental conditions on the model and observe the
result.

Modelling Procedure
In modelling we construct a suitable representation of an identified real-world
problem, obtain solution(s) for that representation and interpret each solution in
terms of the real situation. The steps involved in modelling are as follows:
1. Examine the real-world situation.
2. Extract the essential features from the real-world situation.
3. Construct a model of the real (object or system) using just the essential
features identified.
4. Solve and experiment with the model.
5. Draw conclusions about the model.
6. If a further refinement necessary, then re-examine the model and readjust
parameters and continue at 4, otherwise continue at 7.
7. Proceed with implementation.
 Explanation of the Steps

Begin with the real-world situation, which is to be investigated with a view to

solving some problem or improving that situation.
The first important step is to extract from the real-world situation the essential
features to be included in the model. Include only factors that make the model a
meaningful representation of reality, while not creating a model, which is
difficult by including many variables that do not have much effect. Factors to be
considered include ones over which management has control and external
factors beyond management control. For the factors included, assumptions have
to be made about their behaviour.
Run (simulate) the model and measure what happens. For example, if we have
simulation of a queuing situation where two servers are employed, we can run
this for hundreds of customers passing through the system and obtain results
such as the average length of the queue and the average waiting time per
customer. We can then run it with three servers, say, and see what new values
are obtained for these parameters. Many such runs can be carried out making
different changes to the structure and assumptions of the model.
In the case of a mathematical model, we have to solve a set of equations of
some sort, e.g. linear programming problem where we have to solve a set of
constraints as simultaneous equations, or in stock control – where we have to
use previously accumulated data to predict the future value of a particular
variable.
When we have solved our mathematical model or evaluated some simulation
runs, we can now draw some conclusions about the model. For example, if we
have the average queue length and the average waiting time for a queuing
situation varied in some ways, we can use this in conjunction with information
on such matters as the wage-rates for servers and value of time lost in the
queue to arrive at decisions on the best way to service the queue.
Finally, we use our conclusions about the model to draw some conclusions about
the original real-world situation. The validity of the conclusions will depend on
how well our model actually represented the real-world situation.
Usually, the first attempt at modelling the situation will almost certainly lead to
results at variance with reality. We have to look back at the assumptions in the
model and adjust them. The model must be rebuilt and new results obtained.
Usually, a large number of iterations of this form will be required before
acceptable model is obtained. When an acceptable model has been obtained, it
is necessary to test the sensitivity of that model to possible changes in condition.
The modelling process can then be considered for implementation when it is
decided that the model is presenting the real world (object or system)
sufficiently well for conclusions drawn from it to be a useful guide to action.

The model can be solved by hand, especially if it is simple. It could take time to
arrive at an acceptable model. For complex models or models which involve
tremendous amount of data, the computer is very useful.
Modelling & Simulation ─ Advantages
Following are the advantages of using Modelling and Simulation −

 Easy to understand − Allows to understand how the system really

operates without working on real-time systems.
 Easy to test − Allows to make changes into the system and their effect
on the output without working on real-time systems.
 Easy to upgrade − Allows to determine the system requirements by
applying different configurations.
 Easy to identifying constraints − Allows to perform bottleneck
analysis that causes delay in the work process, information, etc.
 Easy to diagnose problems − Certain systems are so complex that it is
not easy to understand their interaction at a time. However, Modelling &
Simulation allows to understand all the interactions and analyze their
effect. Additionally, new policies, operations, and procedures can be
explored without affecting the real system.

Modelling & Simulation ─ Disadvantages

Following are the disadvantages of using Modelling and Simulation −

 Designing a model is an art which requires domain knowledge, training

and experience.
 Operations are performed on the system using random number, hence
difficult to predict the result.
 Simulation requires manpower and it is a time-consuming process.
 Simulation results are difficult to translate. It requires experts to
understand.
 Simulation process is expensive.
Applications

 Engineering: Testing designs for structures, vehicles, or machinery.

 Healthcare: Simulating disease spread or treatment outcomes.
 Economics: Predicting market trends and policy impacts.
 Environment: Modeling climate change and ecosystem dynamics.

Types of Models
There are many types of models and different ways of classifying/grouping
them. For simplicity, Models may be grouped into the following – Physical,
Mathematical, Analogue, Simulation, Heuristic, Stochastic and Deterministic
models.

Physical Models: Tangible representations (e.g., scale models of buildings).

These are call iconic models. Good examples of physical models are model
cars, model railway, model airplane, scale models, etc. A model railway can
be used to study the behaviour of a real railway, also scale models can be
used to study a plant layout design. In simulation studies, iconic models are
rarely used.
Mathematical Models: Use equations to describe relationships between
variables (e.g., population growth using exponential equations).

Analogue Models

These are similar to iconic models. But here some other entities are used to
represent directly the entities of the real world. An example is the analogue
computer where the magnitudes of the electrical currents flowing in a circuit
can be used to represent quantities of materials or people moving around in
a system. Other examples are; the gauge used to check the pressure in a
tyre. The movement of the dial represent the air pressure in the tyre. In
medical examination, the marks of electrical current on paper, is the
analogue representation of the working of muscles or organs.
Here, instead of entities being represented physically, they are represented
by sequences of random numbers subject to the assumptions of the model.
These models represent (emulate) the behaviour of a real system. They are
used where there are no suitable mathematical models or where the
mathematical model is too complex or where it is not possible to experiment
upon a working system without causing serious disruption.
Heuristic Models

These models use intuitive (or futuristic) rules with the hope that it will
produce workable solutions, which can be improved upon. For example, the
Arthur C Clerk‘s heuristic model was the forerunner of the communications
satellite and today‘s international television broadcast.

These are models that involve one or more uncertain variables and as such
are subject to probabilities.

Advantages of Using Models

They are safer.
They are less expensive. For example, Practical Simulators are used to train
pilots.
They are easier to control than the real world counterparts.

Computational Models: Simulations implemented in software (e.g.,

weather forecasting models).
Tools and Software for M&S

 MATLAB/Simulink: For numerical computations and dynamic system

simulations.
 Python: With libraries like NumPy, SciPy, and SimPy for general-
purpose simulations.
 Arena/AnyLogic: For discrete-event simulations.
 COMSOL Multiphysics: For engineering and physics simulations.