asin Theory 0: Probe neory of Probability 349 Ue (5) Equa lly Tel id to be ‘equally [ikely’, if after taking into consideration all relevant evidence, none of them can be d in preference to another The outcomes of a random experiment are s exp’ Example 11.9 (a) If a coin is unbiased (i.c., is perfectly homogenous and is uniform in both faces), there is no reason to expect that, for instance, heads will appear more often than tails, or vice versa. The two outcomes. Head and Tail are therefore equally likely. (b) Ifa die is unbiased (i.c., is a perfect geometrical cube in shape and made of homogeneous material) there is no reason to suspect that in any throw of the die some particular face will come up more frequently than another face. The six outcomes showing points 1, 2 , 6 are therefore considered ‘equally likely.” (c) If two unbiased coins are thrown, the elementary events HH, HT, TH and TT are equally likely. But the outcomes ‘2 heads’ ‘i head’ and ‘no head’ are not equally likely. y 52x51 (a) Out of a full pack of 52 cards, two cards may be drawn in °C = o> = 1326 ways, and the drawing of a pair of cards gives rise to an outcome: Since the drawing of 2 cards may reveal any of these 1326 possible combinations, the outcomes are equally likely. TECHNIQUES OF COUNTING Some mathematical methods are shown below, which are often helpful for determining without direct enumeration the number of outcomes of a random experiment or the number of cases favourable to an event. These are referred to as “Combinatorial Methods” 1. Fundamental Principle of Counting: If several processes can be performed in the following manner: the first process in p ways, the second in q ways, the third in r ways, and so on, then the total number of ways in which the whole process can be performed in the order indicated is given by the product. pegs (14) Permutation: The total number of ways of arranging (called permutation) distinct objects taken r at a time is given by mp, = n(n—l) (n= 2) (a= r+ 1) (11.4.2) 3. Arrangement ina Line or Circle; The total number of ways in which rr distinet objects can be arranged among themselves is (i) ina line nl=1.2.3.00 (ii) inacircle = (n-1)! 4. Permutation with Repetition: The number of ways of arranging n objects. among which p are alike, q are alike, rare alike, etc. is nt pigirln n (11.4.5)> 350 Statistical Methods . Combination: The total number of possible groups (called combination) that can be formed by taking r objects out of n distinct objects is given by nc, = n= Mn=2) (=r +) r rl n! ES G=nt (1.4.6) . Combination (any number at a time): The total number of ways of forming groups by taking any number from n distinct objects is "Cy 4°C, + "Cy +4 "C,= 2-1 (11.4.7) - Choosing Balls from an Urn: The total number of ways of choosing a white balls and b black balls from an um containing A white and B black balls is ac ea (148) This may be extended to more than two categories of balls. 8. Ordered Partitions (Distinct objects). The wtal number of ways of distributing n distinct objects into r compartments marked 1, 2, ..., r is r (49) The number of ways in which the # objects can be distributed so that the compartments contain respectively m, ®), .. #, object is ' ; eae (114.10) } 9. Ordered Partitions (Identical objects): The total number of ways of distributing n identical objects into r compartments marked 1, 2... ris 2 aerric 5 (4a) a If none of the compartments should remain empty, the total number of ways : of distributing the balls is q arto, (114.12) : 10. Sum of Points on the Dice: When n dice are thrown, the number of ways of : getting a total of r points is given by the i Coefficient of x in (r+ P+ +e +e (114.13) 11. Dearrangements and Matches: If n objects numbered 1, 2, 3, ..., n are distributed at random in n places also numbered 1, 2,3, ... n, a “match” is said to occur if an object occupies the place corresponding to its number. The ee al weet en wen{i-tes-3 7t-tNS 3 (1.4.14) ‘This is also known as “derangement”. ‘The number of permutations of n objects in which exactly r matches occur is eereue e jute reece ae Rint ‘anu = (114.15)