DECLARATION A

The researchers, Mohamed Abdirashid Ahmed, Mohamed Ali

Abdullahi, Horiyo Osman Mohamed, Shugri Mohamoud Mohamed,
Abdikadir Addow Mohamed hereby declare this thesis is our original task
and has been presented for a Degree books or any other academic in any
university of learning

Signature 1: _____________________________ Date: ___/ ____/ 2019

Signature 2: _____________________________ Date: ___/ ____/ 2019

Signature 3: _____________________________ Date: ___/ ____/ 2019

Signature 4: _____________________________ Date: ___/ ____/ 2019

Signature 5: _____________________________ Date: ___/ ____/ 2019

i
 DECLARATION B

“I confirm that the work reported in this thesis was carried out by
the above candidates under our supervision”.

Supervisor

Name: Mr. Mohamed Abukar Mohamed

Signature: ……………………………………..Date____ / /2019

ii
 APPROVAL SHEET

This thesis entitled THE EFFECT OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY ON ECONOMIC

GRWOTH was prepared and submitted in partial fulfillment of requirements
for the degree of Bachelor of DEPARTMENT OF (PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION)
has been examined and approved by the panel on oral examination with a
grade of _____________.

Name of Chairman of the Panel Signature Date

____________________________ ___________ ___/___/____

Name of the Panelist Signature Date

____________________________ ___________ ___/___/____
Name of the Panelist Signature Date
____________________________ ___________ ___/___/____
Name of the Panelist Signature Date
____________________________ ___________ ___/___/____
Name of Dean Faculty Signature Date
____________________________ ___________ ___/___/____

iii
 DEDICATION

First and foremost all praise to almighty Allah, (SWT) the most merciful and
the most compassionate who made us Muslim society and guide us his
pathway and who enabled us to complete this project.

Secondly, we thank to all our parents, with much love, for their efforts and
sacrifices and there for being supportive to us spiritually, emotionally,
morally and even more they provided us throughout our academic life and
career development and without them we couldn’t reach this stage.

Thirdly, we thanks to all our brothers, sisters, friends, classmates, teachers,

supervisors, deans, and rector of our University of JU, and anyone, who
assisted us during this process of thesis/study.

iv
 ACKNOWLEDGMENT

We thank to Allah the Master, the Provider, the Guider and the sustainer of
the Universe who gave us the opportunity to complete this project
successfully.

You won't find a successful person made his way to the top, without a
support. Each one of us is debt to known from unknown... those who gave
us hands when darkness was everywhere around and helped us to stand
when we were not in a position to. Show us the way, encouraged us, and
smiled to us… gave us hope.

Special thanks to our Supervisor Mr. Mohamed Abukar Mohamed

for providing the guidance required in completing the thesis successfully,

without his precious guidance, help, we couldn’t be able to accomplish this
thesis. We especial
thank to our best Dean of Economic and management science Mr. Aidarus
Yousuf Abdullahi and all our lecturers, classmates, students and all
JOBKEY UNIVERSITY families and members.

v
 ABSTRACT

This research was done the months between October 2018,,,,July 2019

This study will be conducted by using the explanatory research design to

investigate the effect of political instability on economic growth also describe
research design describe the characteristics of respondent the study will be
used cross sectional case study as research strategy

Therefore the target population of this study will be 100 respondents.

The sample size will consists of 80 respondents, to determine the best
sample size for the population, and the sample size of this study is 80
respondents

The data on complete questionnaire was categorize or code and will enter
into a computer for the Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS 20) to
summarize the data using simple and complex frequency tables

vi
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECLARATION A............................................................................i

DECLARATION B...........................................................................ii

APPROVAL SHEET........................................................................ iii

DEDICATION..............................................................................iv

ACKNOWLEDGMENT......................................................................v

ABSTRACT…………………………………………………………………………….….vi

TABLE OF CONTENTS....................................................................vii

LIST OF TABLES...........................................................................xi

LIST OF FIGURES.........................................................................xii

CHAPTER ONE.............................................................................1

1.0introduction...........................................................................................1

1.1 Background To The Study:.........................................................................1

1.1.1 Conceptual Perspective..........................................................................1

1.1.2 Historical Perspective............................................................................2

1.1.3 Theoretical Perspectiv...........................................................................3

1.1.4 Contextual Perspective..........................................................................3

1.2 Statement Problem.................................................................................4

1.3 Research Objective..................................................................................5

1.3.1 Purpose o the study..............................................................................5

1.3.2 General Objective.................................................................................5

vii
1.3.3 Specific Objectives................................................................................5

1.4 Research Question..................................................................................5

1.5 Scope Of The Study.................................................................................5

1.5.1 Time scope.........................................................................................5

1.5.2 Geographical scope...............................................................................6

1.5.3 Content scope.....................................................................................6

1.6 The Significant Of Study...........................................................................6

1.7 Operational Definition..............................................................................6

CHAPTER TWO............................................................................ 7

LITERATURE REVIEW......................................................................7

2.0 Introduction..........................................................................................7

2.1 Political instability...................................................................................7

2.2 Economic growth..................................................................................11

2.2.3 The effect of politican instability on economic growth..................................16

2.2.2 Conceptual frame work........................................................................19

CHAPTER THREE.........................................................................20

METHODOLOGY.........................................................................20

3.0 Introduction........................................................................................20

3.1 Reesearch Design..................................................................................20

3.2 Population ..........................................................................................22

3.3 Sample Size.........................................................................................22

3.4 Sample technique.................................................................................23

3.5 Research Instrument..............................................................................23

3.5.1.2 Validity And Relaiability.....................................................................24

viii
3.6: Data collected gathering........................................................................24

3.7:Date analysis.......................................................................................24

3.8: Ethical Considerations....................................................................25

3.9: Limitations Of The Study.......................................................................25

CHAPTER FOUR..........................................................................26

PRESENTATION AND DATA ANALYSIS INTERPRETATION..............................26

4.0 Introduction........................................................................................26

4.1 Section A: Demographic Of The Respondents...............................................26

4.5 Data Presentation And Analysis................................................................28

CHAPTER FIVE........................................................................... 46

FINDINGS, DISCUSSION, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS....................46

5.0 Introduction........................................................................................46

5.1 Major Findings.....................................................................................46

5.2 Conclusion..........................................................................................48

5.3 Recommendations................................................................................50

ix
 LIST OF TABLES

Figure 4.1 respondents by age

Figure 4.2 respondent by gender
figure 4.3 respondent by marital status
Figure 4.4 respondents by educational qualification
Figure 4.5 Occupation of the respondents
Table 4.6 Political instability leads to us social tensions and internecine wars
and prolong hostility among the people.
…………………………………………………………………….31

Table 4.7 Political instability brings dependent to interest groups in terms of

decision
making……………………………………………………………………………………………
………………..32

Table 4.8 Political instability occurs when elections are note free and
fair……………….33

Table 4.9 Political instability significantly reduces economic

growth……………………….34

Table4.10 Political instability brings corruption and mismanagement of the

wealth of the country by the
leaders…………………………………………………………………………………….…..35

Table 4.11 Economic growth always depends on political

stability……………….…………..36

Table 4.12Poor economic performance may lead government collapse and

political
unrest……………………………………………………………………………………………
…………….…….37

Table 4.13 Economic growth is an important point to bring better living

standers and lower rate of
poverty……………………………………………………………………………………….
….38

Table 4.14 Economic growth brings advanced the tax incomes for the
government..…39

Table 4.15 Economic growth is the process by which nation’s wealth increase
over
time………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………..40

x
Table 4.16 Table the political instability influence the process of economic
growth…..41

Table 4.17 Do you agree that the political instability caused economic
collapse………..42

Table 4.18 Economic depression, Corruption, inequality opportunities,

poverty, and lack of political participation caused political
instability………………………………..……………….43

Table 4.19 Political instability strongly affects the economic

growth………………………..44

Table 4.20 Political instability may reduce investment and speed economic
growth……45

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 4.1 respondents by age

Figure 4.2 respondent by gender
figure 4.3 respondent by marital status
Figure 4.4 respondents by educational qualification
Figure 4.5 Occupation of the respondents
Figure 4.6 Political instability leads to us social tensions and internecine wars
and prolong hostility among the
people…………………………………………………………………….. 31

Figure 4.7 Political instability brings dependent to interest groups in terms of

decision
making……………………………………………………………………………………………
………………...32

Figure 4.8 Political instability occurs when elections are note free and
fair……………….33

Figure 4.9 Political instability significantly reduces economic

growth……………………….34

Figurre4.10 Political instability brings corruption and mismanagement of the

wealth of the country by the
leaders……………………………………………………………………………….…..35

Figure 4.11 Economic growth always depends on political stability…………….

…………..36
xi
Figure 4.12Poor economic performance may lead government collapse and
political
unrest……………………………………………………………………………………………
…………….…….37

Figure 4.13 Economic growth is an important point to bring better living

standers and lower rate of
poverty……………………………………………………………………………………….
….38

Figure4.14 Economic growth brings advanced the tax incomes for the
government..…39

Figure 4.15 Economic growth is the process by which nation’s wealth

increase over
time………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………..40

Figure 4.16 Table the political instability influence the process of economic
growth…..41

Figure 4.17 Do you agree that the political instability caused economic
collapse………..42

Figure 4.18 Economic depression, Corruption, inequality opportunities,

poverty, and lack of political participation caused political
instability………………………………..……………….43

Figure 4.19 Political instability strongly affects the economic

growth………………………..44

Figure 4.20 Political instability may reduce investment and speed economic
growth….45

xii
 CHAPTER ONE

INTROUCTION

1.0 Introduction

This chapter covers the introduction of the study, background of the study,
problem statement, and purpose of the study, objectives of study and
research question, and also we were cover the scope of the study,
significance of the study as well us operational definitions of the study.

1.1 Background of the study

1.1.1 Conceptual perspective

Political instability is the propensity of a change in the executive power,

either by constitutional or unconstitutional means. We study whether a high
propensity of an executive collapse leads to slower growth and, conversely,
whether low growth increases the propensity of a government change.
(ALESINA, 1996)

Political instability is “a condition in political systems in which the

institutionalized patterns of authority break down” but add that” the
expected compliance to political authorities is replaced by political violence”.
(Stevenson, 1971)

A country's economic growth may be defined as a long term rise in capacity

to supply increasingly diverse economic goods to its population, this growing
capacity based on advancing technology and the institutional and ideological
adjustments that it demands. All three components of the definition are
important. The sustained rise in the supply of goods is the result of economic
growth, by which it is identified.(Kuznets, 1973).Economic growth is obtained
by an efficient use of the available resources and by increasing the capacity
of production of a country. It facilitates the redistribution of incomes between
population and society. The cumulative effects, the small differences of the

1
increase rates, become big for periods of one decade or more. It is easier to
redistribute the income in a dynamic, growing society, than in a static one
(Petronela HALLER, 2012)

1.1.2 Historical perspective

In hardly seen or experienced any stability in its political matters. Over the
decades many economists and other specialists have urged the political
parties to maintain the stability but it has all went in vain. The instable
politics of Bangladesh has shown us many sorts of violent, meaningless,
destructive methods been used by the political parties. But the method
which most frequently used to oppose the ruling party by the opposition
party is known as ‘hartal’. This method has a very long history behind its
back in the sub-continent. More than 100 years have passed the world‘s first
hartal was staged. It took place in South Africa and was led by the person
who conceived the idea, Mohandas K. Gandhi, to protest the Black Act in
1906 (Roy and Hossain, 2013).

In expected to continue to experience a period of political instability and

associated civil unrest for the short- to medium-term at least. The
consequences thereof are likely to remain constant, with periods of calm
followed by periods of major demonstrations and occasional violent
confrontations, both low-level and mass-casualty in nature. The impact on
foreign interests in terms of personal security and operational risks will
remain largely minimal, with a higher risk to interests and operations located
near protest hotspots and sites. Over the medium- to long-term, the impact
on foreign interests and operations may well increase if Egypt’s numerous
social, economic and most importantly, political, concerns are not
adequately addressed. (Andre Collin, red24 Chief Analyst for the Middle East
and North Africa).

2
1.1.3 Theoretical perspective
This study will adapt the endogenous growth theory; the authors of this
theory are (Romer and Lucas).Endogenous growth models emphasizing the
role of international trade suggest that high productivity growth is possible in
initially poor countries as result of the diffusion of knowledge already
available in industrial countries. Their initial relative backwardness offers an
opportunity to be exploited. Closing of the productivity gap between actual
and best practice could account for part of the acceleration in growth in the
newly industrializing Asian countries, though faster capital growth however
measured and augmented alsoplayed an important role (World Bank,
1993).Neoclassical theory can be viewed as implying convergence across
countries in either growth rates or income levels. Poorer countries will
initially exhibit lower capital-labor ratio, which implies a higher marginal
product of capital. Given equal rates of domestic saving, labor force growth,
and technical progress, theircapital stock growth will exceed that in richer
countries and they should converge to the capital-labor and capital-output
ratio and the income levels of richer countries. There may be an added fillip
to growth from direct investment in factories and purchases of financial
assets by foreigners who can obtain higher rates of return. As convergence
occurs, the growth rates of the poorer nations should be greater. (Barro,
2012)

1.1.4 Contextual perspective

Economic growth and political stability are strongly related. The uncertainty
associated with an unrest political environment may decrease investment
and the speed of economic development. Moreover, weak economic

3
performance may lead to government fall down and political instability.
(Chawdhury, 2016).

1.2 Statement of problem

According to Dunne and Tian (2014), there are broad channels through which
political instability can affect economic growth. Firstly, the capital
accumulation necessary for growth can be affected through the destruction
of human and physical capital. Secondly, investment will be affected through
the decline of foreign investors and foreign direct investment inflows.
Thirdly, there can be the destruction and displacement of productive
activities, and an increase in less productive activities, such as soldering and
border patrol. Fourthly, there can be a reduction in both the domestic and
international trade flows. Fifthly, another effect is the reallocation of
resources from productive activities into less productive activities.

Sixthly, there is a potential for a spillover effect, human displacements and a

humanitarian crisis. Hence, studies exploring these relationships are of
immense importance considering how much they contribute to the literature
of economic growth and political instability .

The cost of civil conflict and absence of a state in economic and social
development has been extremely high. The World Bank Country Economic
Memorandum 2006 found that at a steady growth rate of 2percent—the
same as that experienced during the mid and late 1980s—economic real per
capita output and income could have been about a third higher than it
wasbefore the civil war (1988-90).Today, 47 percent of the economically

4
active population is unemployed in Somalia. Health infrastructure is
dilapidated or non-existent, health care only sparsely provided and
enrollment rates in schools are the lowest in the world . (Maimbo, 2006)

However, Somalia is classified by the United Nations as a least developed

country in the world (2018-03-02). Despite progress, Somalia faces many
insecurity, political, and economic challenges that will constrain economic
growth in 2018. Insecurity continues to threaten peace and stability in the
country and its neighbors.

Although there are a lot of constraints to economic growth in the country,

yet, there is no available literature relating to the issue at hand, therefore,
this study is intended to identify the effect of political instability on economic
growth.
1.3 Research Objectives
1.3.1 Purpose of the Study
The purpose of the study discuss briefly the effect of political instability on
economic growth in Mogadishu Somalia

1.3.2General Objectives
The general objective of this study is to determine the effect of political

instability on economic growth in Mogadishu-Somalia .

1.3.3Specific Objectives

1. To determine political instability in Mogadishu-Somalia

2. To examine economic growth in Mogadishu Somalia

3. To investigate the effect of political instability on economic growth in

Mogadishu Somalia

1.4 Research Questions

 What is the effect of political instability in Mogadishu Somalia?

5
  How does political instability effect economic growth?
 What are the relationship between political instability and economic
growth?
1.5 scope of the study

1.5.1 Time scope

This study was conducted between in October-2018 July 2019

1.5.2 Geographical scope the study was conducted in Mogadishu, the

capital city of Somali.

1.5.3 Content scope

The study is focused on the effect of political instability on economic growth

in Mogadishu-Somalia

1.6 Significance of the Study

This study provides sufficient information on the effect of political instability

on economic growth in Mogadishu, Somalia. It was be benefit to both
national and international institution, students, public institution, private
organizations and also some federal institutions such as Ministry of finance.
The study was useful for future researchers because it was act as a guideline
for them to be followed and a source of information.

1.7 Operational Definition of Key Terms

Political instability can be defined in at least three ways. A first approach

is to define it as the propensity for regime or government change. A second
is to focus on the incidence of political upheaval or violence in a society,
such as assassinations, demonstrations, and so forth. A third approach
focuses on instability in policies rather than instability in regimes (i.e., the
degree to which fundamental policies of, for instance, property rights are
subject to frequent changes.

6
Economic growth Economic Growth is defined as the rise in the money
value of goods and services produced by all the sectors of the economy per
head during particular period. It is a quantitative measure that shows the
increase in the number of commercial transactions in an economy

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW OF RELATED

2.0 Introduction

The previous chapter was presented by introduction of research and its

background. In this chapter covers literature review include: political
instability, economic growth, the effect of political instability on economic
growth and conceptual framework.

2.1 Political instability

Political instability is defined as ''not being able to establish an effective and

productive political structure within laws in a democratically period.'' The
way of administration of the country, political degeneration and election
system which is applied now, are shown as the results of political instability.

Political instability increases populist politics and creates artificial instability

in economy. And also political instability increases irregularly in economy,
decreases confidence on politics and politic institutions. (Berivan, 2016)

Political instability without going into its academic meaning would be in most
simple terms a country which cannot sustain its political system and its

7
political institutional growth. The country’s political institutions are
constantly threatened by the military and the judiciary, are taken over by
military adventurous generals or there is a lot of interference from the
judiciary in the administrative affairs of the country which brings a condition
where the political government ceases to work as it should.

A very simple example would be of India and Pakistan. India had made its
constitution and was on its political path after independence, it did not any
interference from its military or any other institution, except for the period
when Indira Gandhi, PM of India had imposed emergency.

Which not only brought a political stability in the country but also had a
sustained economic growth?

Contrary to this Pakistan had practically had no constitution until 1956; the
Governor Generals were under the British Crown. The present constitution
came in 1973. A big period of Pakistan was under the control of the military,
which brought a political instability in the country. The after effects of this
political instability can still be seen in the political environment of Pakistan in
spite of three political elections. (Sharif, 2016)

Political instability seems to be common among Sub-Saharan Africa. Mbaku

(1988) has stated that there have been 56 coups between 1 Jan. 1956 and
30 April 1984. As of 1984, only six countries had not experienced coups,
attempted coups, or plots. They were Botswana, Cape Verde, Djibouti,
Lesotho, Mauritius, and Swaziland. The question why is political instability so
widespread in Sub-Saharan Africa may be found in why these six countries
have had none. McGowen and Johnson (1984) have offered a possible
explanation of why these six countries are free of elite instability. The reason
given for Lesotho, Botswana, and Swaziland not having instability was its
relationship with South Africa. South Africa is thought to be a protector of the
present regimes of these countries for their own security. McGowen and

8
Johnson have suggested that the other three countries are simply too small
in size, and insignificant in economic and political power. Political instability
is often defined as a deviation from accepted patterns of political behavior
such as a challenge to the present political authority that is not through
constitutional means. Many authors may only include "violent" challenges to
the political system, but this would leave out "peaceful" challenges such as
strikes and demonstration which can cause political disruption. Mbaku (1988)
list three types of political instability, Elite, Communal, and Mass. Elites are
those persons who hold high positions in institutions which allocate
resources. Elite instability, therefore, is the forceful removal of these persons
by other members of the elite. The type of challenge common to Elite
instability includes coups, attempted coups, and plots.

The second type of political instability is Communal. Communal groups

consists of members who share common characteristics, such as ethnicity,
religion, language, territory or combination of these traits. Behaviors usually
associated with Communal instability are civil wars, rebellions and ethnic
violence. From these activities it is easily seen that most Communal
instability is violent. The final political instability category, Mass instability,
involves the attack on leaders of the present political system by members
who are joined together by common goals and objectives. Mass instability
members differ from Communal groups by being based on goals and
objectives rather than common social traits. Some examples of political
instability that have taken place in Africa are: 13 Jan. 1963. TOGO: Members
of the army assassinate President SylvanusOlympio in front of the U.S
Embassey, and hand over to Nicholas Grunitzky. 24 Feb. 1966. GHANA: While
President Kwame Nkrumah was out of the country, military units led by Col.
Kofoka placed retired Major- General Joseph Ankrah as Head of State. 19
Nov. 1968. MALI: The army led by Lieutenant MoussaTraore overthrew the
civilian regime of President Modibo Keita in a bloodless coup. 13 Jan. 1972.
GHANA: While Prime Minister Kofi Busia was abroad, the military led by

9
Colonel Ignatius K. Acheampong seized power. 1 Sept. 1981. CENTRAL
AFRICAN REPUBLIC: The army under the leadership of General Andre
Kolingba overthrew the regime of President David Dacko. 3 Apr. 1984.
GUINEA: Three days after the funeral of President Ahmad SekouToure, the
military led by Colonel Lansana Conte took over the Government in a
bloodless coup to prevent a power struggle among Toure's civilian
successors.

Given the poor economic performance and a high degree of political

instability that has occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa in the past, many
researchers have found the relationship between the two occurrences to be
important enough to investigate a possible relationship between the two.
The studies done on the subject have for the most part been dominated by
political scientists. It is their view that poor economic performance leads to
political instability. They believe poor performance of the economy causes
the population to become unhappy with decision makers. This displeasure
can cause either the population to take action or it may give other specific
groups an excuse to take action. The empirical results from these studies
support this view. Researchers have found that poor economic performance
increases the probability of political instability. This study focuses on the
effects of political instability on economic growth. This is in no way an
attempt to refute the results suggesting that economic problems do have
effects on political instability, but to investigate the possibility that the
causation flows from political instability to economic stagnation. We feel that
both theories of causation can exist simultaneously. All we are saying is that
given the cause of political instability, political instability will in turn cause a
decline in economic growth. It is perhaps the belief that the two theories
refute each other that is responsible for the lack of work done in determining
the effects of political instability on economic growth. Many researchers may
feel it is not necessary to investigate the effects of political instability on
economic growth given the findings for the reverse. It

10
is our hope that this study will add to the literature by investigating the
effects of political instability on economic growth.

I'm not a Political analyst, but l would say that political instability in any
African country, particularly South Africa where l live would -Firstly, cause
rapid economic decline which would affect the country adversely with loss of
jobs, instability on the stock exchange, less or zero new investment in a
country like South Africa.

Secondly there would probably be a huge exodus of whites and Indians

leaving a country like South Africa, to other countries for safety reasons and
to find work. Exactly like what happened in recent years in Zimbabwe,
especially amongst the white farming community, when their farms were
ceased.

Thirdly agriculture and food supply would shrink dramatically and would be a
major concern as the likelihood of farming progressively, would be greatly
diminished with farmers moving off their land for safety reasons and fleeing
to neighboring countries.

Fourthly many people would seek out political asylum and future
development of a politically unstable country would go into decline.

We South Africans know about Political Asylum seekers as we have

encountered many both black and white who have frantically come to South
Africa and applied for political asylum here. Running from frightening war
torn areas such as Rwanda and Sudan and even Nigeria. (Hasselman, 2018)

2.2 Economic growth

According to the earliest contributions by Kuznets (1966, 1973) technological

progress is necessary for economic growth, although it must be
accompanied by liberal democratic institutions, which provide citizens with
political freedom, and which allow them to participate in the political

11
process. This is coupled with economic freedom, which in turn enables their
participation in the economy. In general, previous papers on political
stability-growth links may be classified into four groups. The first strand in
the economic literature argues that political instability has a negative impact
on economic growth, but that there is no causality in the opposite direction
(see for example Alesinaet al., 1996). Another group of contributions
supplies evidence that economic growth causes political stability, but not
vice versa (for example Borner and Paldam, 1998). Another tendency in the
literature argues that causality in the relationship between political
instability and economic growth runs both ways (Zablotsky, 1996; Gyinmah–
Brempong and Traynor, 1999). Finally, the last group of papers contains
evidence supporting a lack of causality between the variables (see for
example Campos and Nugent, 2000). In general, previous investigations also
vary with respect to the samples or countries that different contributors
investigate.

According to the economic literature political freedom plays a crucial role

alongside other determinants of economic growth and income convergence.
However, views concerning the importance of political freedom in the
context of economic growth are often extremely controversial. Sen (1999)
defined development as the process of the growth of real freedoms. He
stressed that the expansion of freedom, including its political sense, should
be the primary end and the principal means of the development of countries.
In contrast, Friedman (1962) argued that economic freedom is itself a
component of the general concept freedom, and that it is a necessary
precondition for the achievement of political freedom. The most controversial
hypothesis albeit quite popular among economists, is known as the ‘Lee
conjecture’, named after the former Prime Minister of Singapore, Lee Kuan
Yew. In his opinion a lack of political freedom supports rapid economic
growth, while democracy and civil rights hamper it. This conjecture was
based on the observation that a few authoritarian economies in Asia, that is

12
South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and China, grew much faster than their
relatively more democratic counterparts. This conjecture was widely
discussed by Przeworski and Limongi (1993) and Vasil (2001). Some
researchers claim that the Lee hypothesis is also supported by the growth in
several authoritarian South American countries, which achieved a mean
annual growth rate of 2.15 percent in the period 1946-1988, while the
average world growth was 1.31 percent in this period. Besides the
discussions on theoretical issues, the controversy on the role of political
systems in economic growth is also reflected in the empirical evidence. In
one of the earliest empirical studies Scully (1988) used a cross-sectional
approach to check the interrelations between institutions and economic
growth in 115 economies between 1960 and 1980. He established that the
institutional framework had a palpable effect on economic growth. He found
that political freedom was the reason for the almost three times faster
growth in stable democracies than in economies which were authoritarian or
only partly free. By contrast, de Haan and Siermann (1995, 1996)
demonstrated (using a sample from the years 1963-1988 and a set of 97
countries) that the positive relationship between political freedom and
economic growth detected in most cross-sectional empirical studies was not
robust and depended on political and cultural discrepancies. Similarly, Farr et
al. (1998) and Wu and Davis (1999) found that political freedom had little
influence on economic growth.

According to these authors most important area of freedom in promoting

economic growth is economic freedom. Xu and Li (2008) collected data for a
sample of 104 countries between 1970 and 2003. They found that political
freedom has positive effects on economic growth at later stages of social and
economic development. They found also evidence for the idea that economic
freedom has greater effects on income convergence in the OECD countries,
but that political freedom also promotes convergence. Alesinaet al. (1996)
used growth rates of GDP per capita as the dependent variable and

13
government changes to measure political instability. They examined a panel
of 113 countries and found that political instability had negative impact on
GDP growth, whereas there was no dependence in the opposite direction.
Within a similar research framework Campos and Nugent (2000) found for
African countries that political instability was a reason for slower economic
growth. However, no relationship was found for any other group of countries.
To summarize, researchers have not yet reached consensus on the role of
democracy in economic growth, neither from a theoretical nor empirical
perspective. On the other hand, a negative relationship between political
instability and growth has been reported quite often, some contributors even
claim that it has been established as a ‘stylized fact’.2 However, empirical
studies on political instability-growth links are often criticized due to the
large amount of ad-hoc-selected explanatory variables and the lack of
rigorous stability analysis of the results.3 Moreover, most of the previous
research in this area was conducted for relatively large groups of countries.
This in turn could easily lead to modelling difficulties due to possible
heterogeneity bias, which is hard to control in simple models. Where detailed
research has been conducted on a particular region,4 it was usually an
analysis of some Latin American or Asian case. The post-communist CEE
economies have not attracted much attention of researchers, mainly due to
lack of datasets of sufficient size. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is
the first contribution to address the political instability-growth nexus in case
of this group of young European democracies. Moreover, this research deals
with some typical but often-omitted modeling difficulties, as subjectivity of
describing the importance of political events and analysis of sensitivity of
empirical results. As already mentioned, these two issues are crucial for
obtaining replicable and robust empirical results.

In the next section we will formulate the main research conjectures of this
paper. The hypotheses will be formulated on the basis of the empirical

14
results and major suggestions from recent research in the area of political
instability-economic growth links.

Economic growth is the scale and depth incremental development of the

human activities that consume more real value and convert it into more use
value. It is a thermodynamically irreversible process. Other activities such as
trade, services, distribution, storage, infrastructure maintenance… are the
extensions of this basic economic activity. GDP reflect the total activities of
economy, so it does not reflect the essence of economy but reflect the
bubble of the economy.

The essence of the economy is the basic material value conversion process
that converts real value into use value to support human survival.

It is a natural process locked microeconomic competition driven

macroeconomic conditions deterioration process that will cancel out the
individual efforts and finally extinct all human on this planet.

Economic growth used to play a positive role in human social development

in history but when it developed to the present stage (refer to the world long
term economic growth diagram which is an ascending hyperbola line so far),
it should be rationally controlled to the minimal to serve the human future
but not let loose for ever more individual present material gain.

Because it is an unsustainable process and the natural process brings

destructive effect on manmade system and its natural supporting systems
that will finally extinct human kind.

Economic growth is irreversibly consuming the material base that supporting

this evolution time while the by-product of this economic growth ---
technology advancement cannot save human future, so economy should be
rationally controlled to the minimal to give way to and serve for the evolution
time span nature allowed. (Ming lou, 2018)

15
Economic growth is an accounting measure. It measures how much money is
changing hands in the economy. Growth occurs when the value and number
of commercial transactions increase in the economy. For example, if you
cook food at home, the GDP doesn't increase. But if you eat at a restaurant,
it does. Similarly, if parents raise their children directly, GDP doesn't
increase. But when parents put their kids in a daycare center, then GDP
increases. Thus, it's only an account of the growth in the number of
commercial transactions in the economy. It's not a very good measure to
understand development of a society. It is also highly value-neutral, which
can be a bad thing. ( Sridhar, 2015)

Economic Growth occurs when production of goods and services increases

without increases in the price of goods and services. Growth of this type is
called real growth.
However, if growth of real output is offset by growth in population, economic
welfare of people will not improve. Thus it is only when population of an
economy remains constant that real growth implies increased availability of
goods and services per head of the country. In other words, it is not the real
growth but the real per capita income which should be taken as a true
indicator of economic wellbeing of the people of a country. (Sharma, 2014)

Economic growth is a quantitative and narrow concept dealing mainly with

the calculation of amount of production inside a country. All the measures of
national income like GDP, GNP, and Per capita income are also measures of
economic growth. (Soumyaranjena, 2018)

16
2.3 The effect of political instability on economic growth

Whilst researchers have long documented the fact that there is a clear
relationship between political instability and economic growth, the empirical
understanding of this relationship remains inadequate. The basic concern of
this research is the direction of causality: whether a stable political
environment translates into economic success or whether economic
development forms the foundations of political stability. The first stream in
the literature argues that political instability affects economic growth (either
by causing slower or faster rates) (Campos and Nugent (2000). The second
one argues that economic growth causes political stability (Zablotsky (1996),
while a third one states that causality runs both ways (Kirmanoglu (2003)). In
addition, the empirical research is also been divided on the different
measurements of political instability. Furthermore, the previous research
also varies with respect to the samples/ countries that different researcher’s
studyAlesina, et al (1992) looked at a panel of 113 countries, while Campos,
Nugent and Robinson (1999) looked at countries in the Middle East and North
Africa5. Both Alaina, et al (1992) and de Hana and in Sherman(1996), state
that political instability causes slower economic development. Hence, both
papers use GDP per capita (growth rates) as the dependent variable and
government changes to measure political instability. Olson (1991) also gives
a theoretical background on the relationship between instability and
economic growth. Alesina, Ozler, Roubini and Swagel (1992) and De Haan
and Siermann (1996) provide two, more explicit theoretical arguments for
why political instability slows down economic growth. The first paper uses
the concept of uncertainty. A high propensity of government change (which
may be considered as a measure of political instability) often leads to
uncertainty about the policies of the new government. On the one hand,
Alesina et al (1992) average the government changes for each country over

17
several years. Alesina et al‟s (1992) findings show that when there is a high
rate of government changes economic growth is significantly lower. On the
other hand, De Haan and Sierman (1996) use a dummy variable that takes
the value 0 if the number of government changes shifts exceeds seven and 1
otherwise (for the years 1963-1988 and a set of 97 countries). Furthermore,
Campos and Nugent (2000) and Goldsmith (1987) also use GDP (the growth
rate) as the dependent variable, but they constructed their own measures of
political instability by using indices to distinguish between mild and severe
instability6. Goldsmith (1987) uses a similar methodology but he included
changes in stability between two different time periods. He divided his
sample into four groups firstly, the Constantly Stable (countries that were
stable in all time periods), Chronically Unstable (countries that were unstable
in all time periods), Stabilizing (countries that became more stable in the
later time period), and Destabilizing (countries that became less stable in the
later time period, compared to earlier one). Both Campos and Nugent (2000)
and Goldsmith (1987) found no statistically significant relationship between
political instability and economic growth in the sample of countries they
were investigated. Though, Campos and Nugent (2000) found a significant
negative relationship between political instability and economic growth only
in the African continent. The third stream in the previous literature as
mentioned above, argues that causality the relationship between political
instability and economic growth runs both ways. Alesina et al (1992), In the
equation of political instability they use government changes (dependent
variable) and as independent variables they use GDP per capita, cabinet
changes and a dummy variable of whether countries are democratic or not.
Hence, in their economic growth equation, the dependent variable is the
average per capita growth in GDP, while as independent variables they
integrated proxies for the level of income and human capital, region-specific
dummy variables, and other control variables. In addition, Alesina et al
(1992) use as instrumental variables the enrolment rate in primary schools,
the lagged number of incidences of an executive change and the lagged

18
number of the number of coup d‟ etats. Alesina et al (1992) concluded that
economic growth and political instability are not only related but they are
both sendogenous, which means that neither of them can be taken as
predetermined. Additionally, Blanco and Grier (2009) investigate the
essential sources of political instability in 18 Latin American countries from
1971-2000.

To sum up, the previous research used different models and methodologies
to investigate the relationship between political instability and economic
growth. There was a variation both in the direction of causality and the
measurement of political instability. Many researchers reported that there
was no statistical significance between instability and growth. However, most
of the previous research, reported that political instability slows down
economic growth. The basic idea though, through all those different models
and measurements and datasets is that political instability leads to economic
discrepancies. While also using GDP as the dependent economic variable,
Campos and Nugent (2000) and Goldsmith (1987) each constructed their
own measures for political instability.

Political instability slows economic growth. Political instability means rules

and regulations may change. When consumers make big purchases or
companies invest in new factories they are making bets on their predictions
for the future. If they are less confident about their predictions they will be
less willing take risks. That usually means they wait and do nothing. ( Ryan,,
2017)

Political instability is regarded by economists as a serious malaise harmful to

economic performance. Political instability is likely to shorten policymakers’
horizons leading to suboptimal short term macroeconomic policies. It may
also lead to a more frequent switch of policies, creating volatility and thus,
negatively affecting macroeconomic performance. Considering its damaging

19
 repercussions on economic performance the extent at which political
instability is pervasive across countries and time is quite surprising. Political
instability as measured by Cabinet Changes, that is, the number of times in a
year in which a new premier is named and/or 50 percent or more of the
cabinet posts are occupied by new ministers, is indeed globally widespread
displaying remarkable regional differences (Aisen & Veiga , January 2011)

2.4 Conceptual framework

Independent variable Dependent variable

Political instability Economic growth

This representation of our research topic political instability is an

independent variable

And economic growth is a dependent variable.

20
 CHAPTER TREE

METHEDOLOGY

3.0 Introduction

The Study provides methodology that be under taken in this research. This
chapter includes research design, research population, sample size
determination, sampling technique, research instrument, data collection
procedure and data analysis, reliability and validity, ethical consideration
and research limitation.

3.1 Research design

Research design can be considered as the structure of research it is the

“Glue” that holds all of the elements in a research project together, in short
it is a plan of the proposed research work. Research design is defined by
different social scientists in different terms; some of the definitions are as:
according to Jahoda, Deutch& Cook “A research design is the arrangement of
conditions for the collection and analysis of data in a manner that aims to
combine relevance to the research purpose with economy and procedure”.2
Research design is the plan, structure and strategy and investigation
concaved so as to obtain ensured to search question and control variance”.3

21
Henry Manheim says that research design not only anticipates and specifies
the seemingly countless decisions connected with carrying out data
collection, processing and analysis but it presents a logical basis for these
decisions. ( Akhtar, 2016).

Descriptive research can be either quantitative or qualitative. It can involve

collections of quantitative information that can be tabulated along a
continuum in numerical form, such as scores on a test or the number of
times a person chooses to use a-certain feature of a multimedia program, or
it can describe categories of information such as gender or patterns of
interaction when using technology in a group situation. Descriptive research
involves gathering data that describe events and then organizes, tabulates,
depicts, and describes the data collection (Glass & Hopkins, 1984). It often
uses visual aids such as graphs and charts to aid the reader in understanding
the data distribution. Because the human mind cannot extract the full import
of a large mass of raw data, descriptive statistics are very important in
reducing the data to manageable form. When in-depth, narrative
descriptions of small numbers of cases are involved, the research uses
description as a tool to organize data into patterns that emerge during
analysis. Those patterns aid the mind in comprehending a qualitative study
and its implications.

Descriptive research is unique in the number of variables employed. Like

other types of research, descriptive research can include multiple variables
for analysis, yet unlike other methods, it requires only one variable (Borg &
Gall, 1989). For example, a descriptive study might employ methods of
analyzing correlations between multiple variables by using tests such as
Pearson's Product Moment correlation, regression, or multiple regression
analysis. Good examples of this are the Knupfer and Hayes (1994) study
about the effects of the Channel One broadcast on knowledge of current
events, Manaev's (1991) study about mass media effectiveness, McKenna's
(1993) study of the relationship between attributes of a radio program and

22
its appeal to listeners, Orey and Nelson's (1994) examination of learner
interactions with hypermedia environments, and Shapiro's (1991) study of
memory and decision processes.( Stonelake Drive, & Bloomington,, 2001)

Some of the major advantages of descriptive research are:

 Data collection: Descriptive research can be conducted by using specific

methods like observational method, case study method and survey
method. Between these 3, all major methods of data collection are covered
which provides a lot of information. This can be used for future research or
even developing hypothesis of your research object.
 Varied: Since the data collected is both qualitative and quantitative, it
gives a holistic understanding of a research topic. This causes data that
was not planned to be collected gets tracked and the data is varied,
diverse and thorough.
 Natural environment: Descriptive research allows for the research to be
conducted in the natural environment of the respondent and this ensures
that high-quality and honest data is collected.
 Quick to conduct and cheap: As the sample size is generally large in
descriptive research, the data collection is quick to conduct and is cheap
 Forms basis for decision-making: As the data collected in descriptive
research represents a larger population and is robust, it is easy to make
decisions on the basis of the statistical analysis of that data. . (Bhat, 2010)
3.2 Research population

Study population refers to the entire group of individuals/people who are

considered appropriate for the study or simply those that are affected and
thus relevant to the study objective. These are the people on whom the
research is being conducted. Study sample on the other hand refers to the
relatively smaller group picked to represent the entire population in the
study. So the target population of this study comprises 100 people from
different selected institutions.

23
3.3 Sample size

The study selected 80 respondents from minister of foreign policy, politicians,

and civil society and we focused the public administration Students, the
researchers reached the sample through the Solven’s Formula which is n = N /
(1 + (N*e^2)),

Formula n=100/ (1+ (100*0.0025)) = 80 respondents

Table: Sample size and Target Population

No Categories Target population Sample Size

1 Minister of Foreign policy 20 12

2 Politicians 20 14

3 Civil society 25 23

4 Public administration 35 31
students

total 100 80
s

3.4 Sample Technique

24
The study employed simple random sampling techniques. According to 2005,
(Kamar) the researchers was select this sampling technique because it gives
you opportunity to choose the member target population who provide the
accurate information or date

This refers to a process of selecting a group of subjects (a sample) for study

from a larger group (population). This was intended to select respondents
since each stratum was assumed to contain employees with related
knowledge on the topic under study.

3.5 research instrument

This study used questionnaire as its main tool for collecting data. The reason
that researchers preferred is that questionnaire is suitable for literate
population and also it is intended to collect data within short period of time
and mainly the selection of this tool has been guided by the nature of data to
be collected, the time available, as well as objectives of this study. The
questionnaire used in this study was structured questionnaire about the
effect of political instability on economic growth Mogadishu in Somalia. The
questionnaire used in view of the reality that the study is about variables
that cannot be observed such as ideas and feeling.

3.5.1 Validity

Validity is a “measure of the truth or accuracy of a claim” (Burns and Grove

2005 and, according to (Babbie 2004), it refers to how far a data collection
instrument actually measures what it is supposed to measure. Validity has
two aspects: firstly that the instrument does in fact measure the concept it is
intended to measure and secondly that it is measures accurately.

3.5.2 Reliability

25
Reliability arises from the stability and consistency of the measurement and
provides an indication of the random error in the measurement (Burns and
Grove 2005). In order to ensure reliability of the measuring instrument,
closed-ended questions are used in most cases. Thus, if the same questions
are administered to the same study participant at different times, the chances
are very high that one would get the same or a similar response.

3.6 date collection method

Data collection procedure was implemented: Before administration of

questionnaire, the research proposal is approved; the researchers first
obtained an authority letter from JOBKEY UNIVERSITY in Mogadishu Somalia
in order the researchers to carry out a political instability on economic
growth. The data collected from primary source during the administration of
questionnaire specially; the researcher seriously particularly requested the
respondent of the following: 1) to sign the informed consent. 2) To answer all
questions. 3) To avoid biases and to be objective answer of questionnaires.

3.7 date analysis to interprets

The researchers used quantitative data analysis in this study. To analyze the
data SPSS version 20 (statistical package for the social science) was used.
The researchers also used descriptive design in this study.

3.8 ethical considerations

Researchers consider ethical issues related to the research project. No

enforced and fraud was used during research process. The study also
safeguards confidential issues and ensures that finding was used pure
academic purpose. Secrecy of all participants kept along with avoiding any
kind of deception by the giving information and asking the permission.

3.9 limitation of the study

26
The researchers have some limitations; the language is assumed the
greatest barrier in getting the most correct answers for the questionnaire for
the respondents. Using only questionnaire, Lack of internet speed, and also
lack of transportation.

CHAPTER FOUR

DATE ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

4.0 introductions

This chapter presented the results of the study. Frequency tables and charts
were used in order to show study result.

4.1 Gender of the respondents

27
Table 4.1 Gender of the respondents

Frequency Percen Valid Cumulative Percent

t Percent

Male 50 62.5 62.5 62.5

Femal
Valid 30 37.5 37.5 100.0
e

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.1, the majority of the respondents 50(62.5%) were

male, while only 30(37.5%) were female.

Figure 4.1 Gender of the respondents

4.2 Age of the respondents

Table 4.2 Age of the respondents

Frequenc Percent Valid Cumulative

y Percent Percent

Valid 15-25 35 43.8 43.8 43.8

28
 26-35 30 37.5 37.5 81.3

36-49 15 18.8 18.8 100.0

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.2, the majority of the respondents 35(43.75%) were

between 15-25 years, 30(37.5%) were between 26-35 years, 15(18.75%)
were between 36-49 years.

Figure 4.2 Age of the respondents

4.3 Marital status of the respondents

Table 4.3 Marital status of the respondents

Frequency Percent Valid Cumulative Percent

Percent

29
 Single 46 57.5 57.5 57.5

Valid Married 34 42.5 42.5 100.0

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.3, the majority of the respondents 46(57.5%) were

married, 34(42.5%) were single.

Figure 4.3 Marital status of the respondents

4.4 Educational level of the respondents

Table 4.4 Educational level of the respondents

30
 Frequenc Percen Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
y t

Bachelor 60 75.0 75.0 75.0

Valid Master 20 25.0 25.0 100.0

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.4 the majority of the respondents 60(75%) were

bachelor, 20(25%) were master.

Figure 4.4 Educational level of the respondents

4.5 Occupation of the respondents

31
Table 4.5 Occupation of the respondents

Frequenc Percent Valid Cumulative Percent

y Percent

Employed 25 31.3 31.3 31.3

Unemploye
Valid 55 68.8 68.8 100.0
d

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.5, the majority of the respondents 25(31.25%) were

employed, while only 55(68.75%) were unemployed.

Figure 4.5 Occupation of the respondents

4.6 Political instability leads to us social tensions and internecine

wars and prolong hostility among the people.

32
Table 4.6 Political instability leads to us social tensions and internecine wars and
prolong hostility among the people.

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

strongly
4 5.0 5.0 5.0
disagree

Disagree 7 8.8 8.8 13.8

Neutral 13 16.3 16.3 30.0

Valid
Agree 35 43.8 43.8 73.8

strongly agree 21 26.3 26.3 100.0

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.6, the majority of the respondents 4(5%) strongly

disagree. That

7(8.75%) disagree. that 13(16.25%) were neutral. On the other hand,

4(43.75%) agree. That were 21(26.25) strongly agree.

Figure 4.6 Political instability leads to us social tensions and internecine wars
and prolong hostility among the people

33
4.7 Political instability brings dependent to interest
groups in terms of decision making.

Table 4.7 Political instability brings dependent to interest groups in terms

of decision making.

Frequenc Percen Valid Percent Cumulative

y t Percent

strongly
8 10.0 10.0 10.0
disagree

Disagree 14 17.5 17.5 27.5

Neutral 20 25.0 25.0 52.5

Valid
Agree 21 26.3 26.3 78.8

strongly
17 21.3 21.3 100.0
agree

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.7, the majority of the respondents 8(10%) strongly

disagree. That

14(17.5%) disagree. that 20(25%) were neutral. On the other hand,

21(26.25%) agree. That were 17(21.25) strongly agree.

34
Figure 4.7 Political instability brings dependent to interest groups in terms of
decision making.

4.8 Political instability occurs when elections are note free and fair.

Table 4.8 Political instability occurs when elections are note free and fair.

Frequenc Percent Valid Cumulative Percent

y Percent

strongly
2 2.5 2.5 2.5
disagree

Disagree 4 5.0 5.0 7.5

Valid Neutral 11 13.8 13.8 21.3

Agree 35 43.8 43.8 65.0

strongly agree 28 35.0 35.0 100.0

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.8, the majority of the respondents 2(2.5%) strongly

disagree. That

4(5%) disagree. that 11(13.75%) were neutral. On the other hand,

35(43.75%) agree. That were 28(35) strongly agree.

35
Figure 4.8 Political instability occurs when elections are note free and fair.

4.9 Political instability significantly reduces economic growth.

Table 4.9 Political instability significantly reduces economic growth.

Frequency Percen Valid Cumulative Percent

t Percent

strongly
3 3.8 3.8 3.8
disagree

Disagree 7 8.8 8.8 12.5

Valid Neutral 12 15.0 15.0 27.5

Agree 35 43.8 43.8 71.3

strongly agree 23 28.8 28.8 100.0

Total 80 100.0 100.0

36
According to table 4.9, the majority of the respondents 3(3.75%) strongly
disagree. That 7(8.75%) disagree. that 12(15%) were neutral. On the other
hand, 35(43.75%) agree. That were 23(28.75) strongly agree.

Figure 4.9 Political instability significantly reduces economic growth

4.10 Political instability brings corruption and mismanagement of

the wealth of the country by the leaders.

Table 4.10 Political instability brings corruption and mismanagement of

the wealth of the country by the leaders.

Frequenc Percent Valid Cumulative

y Percent Percent

Valid strongly
1 1.3 1.3 1.3
disagree

Disagree 5 6.3 6.3 7.5

Neutral 9 11.3 11.3 18.8

37
 Agree 28 35.0 35.0 53.8

strongly agree 37 46.3 46.3 100.0

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.10, the majority of the respondents 1(1.5%) strongly

disagree. That 5(6.25%) disagree. that 9(11.25%) were neutral. On the other
hand, 28(55%) agree. That were 37(46.25) strongly agree.

Figure 4.10 Political instability brings corruption and mismanagement of the

wealth of the country by the leaders.

4.11 Economic growth always depends on political stability

Table 4.11 Economic growth always depends on political stability.

Frequency Percent Valid Cumulative Percent

Percent

Valid Strong disagree 7 8.8 8.8 8.8

Disagree 5 6.3 6.3 15.0

Neutral 12 15.0 15.0 30.0

38
 Agree 36 45.0 45.0 75.0

Strongly agree 20 25.0 25.0 100.0

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.11, the majority of the respondents 7(8.75%) strongly

disagree. That 5(6.25%) disagree. that 12(15%) were neutral. On the other
hand, 36(45%) agree. That were 20(25) strongly agree.

Figure 4.11 Economic growth always depends on political stability.

4.12 Poor economic performance may lead government collapse and

political unrest.

Table 4.12 poor economic performance may lead government collapse and
political unrest.

Frequenc Percent Valid Cumulative

y Percent Percent

Valid strongly 10 12.5 12.5 12.5

disagree

39
 Disagree 13 16.3 16.3 28.8

Neutral 17 21.3 21.3 50.0

Agree 24 30.0 30.0 80.0

Strongly agree 16 20.0 20.0 100.0

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.12, the majority of the respondents 10(12.5%) strongly

disagree. That 13(16.25%) disagree. that 17(21.25%) were neutral. On the
other hand, 24(30%) agree. That were 16(20) strongly agree.

Figure 4.12 Poor economic performance may lead government collapse and
political unrest

413. Economic growth is an important point to bring better living

standers and lower rate of poverty

Table .13 Economic growth is an important point to bring better living

standers and lower rate of poverty

Frequenc Percent Valid Cumulative

y Percent Percent

40
 strongly
7 8.8 8.8 8.8
disagree

Disagree 13 16.3 16.3 25.0

Valid Neutral 18 22.5 22.5 47.5

Agree 27 33.8 33.8 81.3

Strongly agree 15 18.8 18.8 100.0

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.13, the majority of the respondents 7(8.75%) strongly

disagree. That 13(16.25%) disagree. that 18(22.5%) were neutral. On the
other hand, 27(33.75%) agree. That were 15(18.75) strongly agree.

Figure 4.13 Economic growth is an important point to bring better living

standers and lower rate of poverty

4.14 Economic growth brings advanced the tax incomes for the
government.

Table 4.14 Economic growth brings advanced the tax incomes for the
government.

41
 Frequenc Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
y Percent

strongly
2 2.5 2.5 2.5
disagree

Disagree 8 10.0 10.0 12.5

Valid Neutral 15 18.8 18.8 31.3

Agree 30 37.5 37.5 68.8

Strongly agree 25 31.3 31.3 100.0

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.14, the majority of the respondents 2(2.50%) strongly

disagree. That 8(10%) disagree. That 15(18.75%) were neutral. On the other
hand, 30(37.50%) agree. That were 25(31.25) strongly agree.

Figure 4.14 Economic growth brings advanced the tax incomes for the
government.

42
4.15 Economic growth is the process by which nation’s wealth
increase over time.

Table 4.15 Economic growth is the process by which nation’s wealth

increase over time.

Frequenc Percent Valid Cumulative

y Percent Percent

strongly
4 5.0 5.0 5.0
disagree

Disagree 10 12.5 12.5 17.5

Valid Neutral 9 11.3 11.3 28.8

Agree 31 38.8 38.8 67.5

strongly agree 26 32.5 32.5 100.0

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.15, the majority of the respondents 4(5%) strongly

disagree. That 10(12.5%) disagree. that 9(11.25%) were neutral. On the
other hand, 31(38.75%) agree. That were 26(32.5) strongly agree.

43
Figure 4.15 Economic growth is the process by which nation’s wealth
increase over time.

4.16 The political instability influence the process of economic

growth

Table 4.16 The political instability influence the process of economic

growth

Frequenc Percent Valid Cumulative

y Percent Percent

strongly
3 3.8 3.8 3.8
disagree

Disagree 7 8.8 8.8 12.5

Valid Neutral 11 13.8 13.8 26.3

Agree 26 32.5 32.5 58.8

strongly agree 33 41.3 41.3 100.0

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.16, the majority of the respondents 3(3.75%) strongly

disagree. That 7(8.75%) disagree. that 11(13.75%) were neutral. On the
other hand, 26(32.50%) agree. That were 33(41.25) strongly agree.

44
Figure 4.16 the political instability influence the process of economic growth

4.17 Do you agree that the political instability caused economic

collapse?

Table 4.17 Do you agree that the political instability caused economic
collapse?

Frequenc Percen Valid Cumulative Percent

y t Percent

Valid strongly
1 1.3 1.3 1.3
disagree

Disagree 5 6.3 6.3 7.5

Neutral 12 15.0 15.0 22.5

Agree 40 50.0 50.0 72.5

strongly agree 22 27.5 27.5 100.0

45
 Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.17, the majority of the respondents 1(1.75%) strongly

disagree. That 5(6.25%) disagree. that 12(15%) were neutral. On the other
hand, 40(50%) agree. That were 22(27.75) strongly agree.

Figure 4.17 do you agree that the political instability caused economic
collapse?

4.18 Economic depression, Corruption, inequality opportunities,

poverty, and lack of political participation caused political
instability.

Table 4.18 Economic depression, Corruption, inequality opportunities, poverty,

and lack of political participation caused political instability.

Frequenc Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

y Percent

46
 strongly
12 15.0 15.0 15.0
disagree

Disagree 10 12.5 12.5 27.5

Valid Neutral 20 25.0 25.0 52.5

Agree 21 26.3 26.3 78.8

strongly agree 17 21.3 21.3 100.0

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.18, the majority of the respondents 12(15%) strongly

disagree. That 10(12.25%) disagree. that 20(25%) were neutral. On the other
hand, 21(26.25%) agree. That were 17(21.25) strongly agree.

Figure 4.18 Economic depression, Corruption, inequality opportunities,

poverty, and lack of political participation caused political instability

419. Political instability strongly affects the economic growth.

Table 4.19Political instability strongly affects the economic growth.

Frequenc Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

y Percent

47
 strongly
5 6.3 6.3 6.3
disagree

Disagree 7 8.8 8.8 15.0

Valid Neutral 16 20.0 20.0 35.0

Agree 27 33.8 33.8 68.8

strongly agree 25 31.3 31.3 100.0

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.19, the majority of the respondents 5(6.5%) strongly

disagree. That 7(8.75%) disagree. that 16(20%) were neutral. On the other
hand, 27(33.75%) agree. That were 25(31.25) strongly agree.

Figure 4.19 Political instability strongly affects the economic growth

4.20 Political instability may reduce investment and speed economic

growth

48
Table 4.20 Political instability may reduce investment and speed economic
growth

Frequency Percent Valid Cumulative

Percent Percent

strongly
3 3.8 3.8 3.8
disagree

Disagree 5 6.3 6.3 10.0

Valid Neutral 9 11.3 11.3 21.3

Agree 38 47.5 47.5 68.8

strongly agree 25 31.3 31.3 100.0

Total 80 100.0 100.0

According to table 4.20, the majority of the respondents 3(3.75%) strongly

disagree. That 5(6.25%) disagree. that 9(11.25%) were neutral. On the other
hand, 38(47.5%) agree. That were 25(31.25) strongly agree.

Figure 4.20 Political instability may reduce investment and speed economic
growth

49
 CHAPTER FIVE

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.0 Introduction

This chapter presented the findings of the study. This chapter also concluded
the study as a whole as it suggested some recommendations for further
action.

5.1 MAJOR FINDINGS

Table 4.1, the majority of the respondents 50(62.5%) were male, while only
30(37.5%) were female.

Table 4.2, the majority of the respondents 35(43.75%) were between 15-25
years, 30(37.5%) were between 26-35 years, 15(18.75%) were between 36-
49 years.

Table 4.3, the majority of the respondents 46(57.5%) were married,

34(42.5%) were single.

Table 4.4, the majority of the respondents 60(75%) were bachelor, 20(25%)
were master

Table 4.5, the majority of the respondents 25(31.25%) were employed, while
only 55(68.75%) were unemployed.

Table 4.6, the majority of the respondents 4(5%) strongly disagree. That

7(8.75%) disagree. that 13(16.25%) were neutral. On the other hand,

4(43.75%) agree. That were 21(26.25) strongly agree.

Table 4.7, the majority of the respondents 8(10%) strongly disagree. That

14(17.5%) disagree. that 20(25%) were neutral. On the other hand,

21(26.25%) agree. That were 17(21.25) strongly agree.

50
Table 4.8, the majority of the respondents 2(2.5%) strongly disagree. That

4(5%) disagree. that 11(13.75%) were neutral. On the other hand,

35(43.75%) agree. That were 28(35) strongly agree.

Table 4.9, the majority of the respondents 3(3.75%) strongly disagree. That
7(8.75%) disagree. that 12(15%) were neutral. On the other hand,
35(43.75%) agree. That were 23(28.75) strongly agree.

Table 4.10, the majority of the respondents 1(1.5%) strongly disagree. That
5(6.25%) disagree. that 9(11.25%) were neutral. On the other hand, 28(55%)
agree. That were 37(46.25) strongly agree.

Table 4.11, the majority of the respondents 7(8.75%) strongly disagree. That
5(6.25%) disagree. that 2(15%) were neutral. On the other hand, 36(45%)
agree. That were 20(25) strongly agree.

Table 4.12, the majority of the respondents 10(12.5%) strongly disagree.

That 13(16.25%) disagree. that 17(21.25%) were neutral. On the other hand,
24(30%) agree. That were 16(20) strongly agree.

Table 4.13, the majority of the respondents 7(8.75%) strongly disagree. That
13(16.25%) disagree. that 18(22.5%) were neutral. On the other hand,
27(33.75%) agree. That were 15(18.75) strongly agree.

Table 4.14, the majority of the respondents 2(2.50%) strongly disagree. That
8(10%) disagree. That 15(18.75%) were neutral. On the other hand,
30(37.50%) agree. That were 25(31.25) strongly agree.

Table 4.15, the majority of the respondents 4(5%) strongly disagree. That
10(12.5%) disagree. that 19(11.25%) were neutral. On the other hand,
31(38.75%) agree. That were 26(32.5) strongly agree.

51
Table 4.16, the majority of the respondents 3(3.75%) strongly disagree. That
7(8.75%) disagree. that 10(12.25%) were neutral. On the other hand,
20(25%) agree. That were 22(27.5) strongly agree.

Table 4.17, the majority of the respondents 1(1.75%) strongly disagree. That
5(6.25%) disagree. that 12(15%) were neutral. On the other hand, 40(50%)
agree. That were 22(27.75) strongly agree.

Table 4.18, the majority of the respondents 12(15%) strongly disagree. That
10(12.25%) disagree. that 20(25%) were neutral. On the other hand,
21(26.25%) agree. That were 17(21.25) strongly agree.

Table 4.19, the majority of the respondents 5(6.5%) strongly disagree. That
7(8.75%) disagree. that 16(20%) were neutral. On the other hand,
27(33.75%) agree. That were 255(31.25) strongly agree.

Table 4.20, the majority of the respondents 3(3.75%) strongly disagree. That
5(6.25%) disagree. that 9(11.25%) were neutral. On the other hand,
38(47.5%) agree. That were 25(31.25) strongly agree.

5.2 Conclusion

The aim of this study was to describe the effect of political instability on
economic groth in Mugadishu Somalia.

Political instability is the propensity of a change in the executive power,

either by constitutional or unconstitutional means. We study whether a high
propensity of an executive collapse leads to slower growth and, conversely,
whether low growth increases the propensity of a government change

Economic Growth is defined as the rise in the money value of goods and
services produced by all the sectors of the economy per head during a
particular period. It is a quantitative measure that shows the increase in the
number of commercial transactions in an economy. to determine political

52
instability, to examine economic growth, to investigate the effect of political
instability on economic.

Research design can be considered as the structure of research it is the

“Glue” that holds all of the elements in a research project together, in short
it is a plan of the proposed research work. Research design is defined by
different social scientists in different terms; some of the definitions are as:
according to Jahoda, Deutch& Cook “A research design is the arrangement of
conditions for the collection and analysis of data in a manner that aims to
combine relevance to the research purpose with economy and procedure”.

The majority of the respondents 50(62.5%) were male, while only 30(37.5%)
were female. The majority of the respondents 35(43.75%) were between 15-
25 years, 30(37.5%) were between 26-35 years, 15(18.75%) were between
36-49 years. The majority of the respondents 46(57.5%) were married,
34(42.5%) were single.the majority of the respondents 60(75%) were
bachelor, 20(25%) were master

53
5.3 RECOMMENDATIONS

The Researchers Suggests the Following points as to protect the effect of

political instability.

 The solution of somalia depends on avoiding and be attention the

political instability

 Somali leaders must stop to pursue their personal interest because

personal interest is what can bring political instability and division

among somali people.

 Unity is strength and power, there fore Somali people must give efforts

getting unity among themselves to over come their enemy.

 Somali Government must concentrate justice and equality, applying

rule of law, so as to get the government’s credibility.

 Somali government must apply transparency, accountibility, good

governance, and Good resource management to prevent corruption

and mis use of resource.

54
 APPENDIX: A REFERENCE

ALESINA, ALBERTO, Political Instability and Economic Growth, Political

Instability and Economic Growth, 1996.Stevenson, Morrison, Essays on
political instability, 1971. Petronela HALLER, Alina, Concepts of Economic
Growth and Development. Challenges of Crisis and of Knowledge, Economy
Transdisciplinarity Cognition, 2012. (Andre Collin, red24 Chief Analyst for the
Middle East and North Africa).Romer and Lucas theory. Chawdhury, Jahangir,
POLITICAL INSTABILITY A MAJOR OBSTACLE TO ECONOMIC, CENTRIA,
2016.Dunne and Tian (2014. (Berivan, 2016). Sharif, Ali Abbas, Quora, 2016.
Hasselman, Sheryn, Quora, 2018. Kuznets (1966, 1973). (Alesinaet al.,
1996). Borner and Paldam,(Zablotsky, 1996; Gyinmah–Brempong and
Traynor, 1999). Przeworski and Limongi (1993) and Vasil (2001). Haan and
Siermann (1995, 1996). Lou, Ming, Quora, 2018.Sridhar, Shyam Sundar,
Quora, 2015. Soumyaranjena, Quora, 2018.(Zablotsky (1996). (Kirmanoglu
(2003)). Alaina, et al (1992) and de Hana and in Sherman(1996). Aisen, Ari ;
Veiga , Francisco Jose, Journal, IMF Working Paper 2001. ( Akhtar, 2016).
( Stonelake Drive, & Bloomington,, 2001). (Bhat, 2010)

55
 APPENDIX B: QUESTIONNAIRE
INTRODUCTION

We are group of students from JOBKEY UNIVERSITY. We are conducting this

study in fulfillment of the requirement for the Award of Bachelor degree of
PUPLIC ADMINISTRATION. Answering this questionnaire will be valuable
contribution. The information provided will be used for academic purpose
only and its confidentiality is highly guaranteed.

SECTION A: SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC DATA

1. Gender of the respondents

a. Male
b. Female

2. Age of the respondents

a. 15 – 25 years
b. 26 – 35 years
c. 36 – 49

3. Marital status of the respondents

a. Single
b. Married

4. Educational level of the respondents

a. Bachelor level

56
 b. Master level

5. Occupation of the respondents

a. Employed
b. Unemployed

SECTION B:
Please Read the following statements and check the box that best reflects your
opinion of the statement.

Where, 1= Strongly Disagree (SD), 2= Disagree(D), 3=Neutral(N)4= Agree(A), 4=

Strongly Agree(SA)

No TO DETERMINE POLITICAL INSTABILITY SD D N A SA

STATEMENT 1 2 3 4 5

1. Political instability leads to us social tensions and

internecine wars and prolong hostility among the
people.

2. Political instability brings dependent to interest

groups in terms of decision making.

3. Political instability occurs when elections are note free

and fair.

4. Political instability significantly reduces economic

growth.

57
 5. Political instability brings corruption and
mismanagement of the wealth of the country by the
leaders.

No TO EXAMINE ECONOMIC GROWTH SD D N A SA

STATEMENT 1 2 3 4 5

1. Economic growth always depends on political stability.

2. Poor economic performance may lead government

collapse and political unrest.

3. Economic growth is an important point to bring better

living standers and lower rate of poverty

4. Economic growth brings advanced the tax incomes for

the government.

5. Economic growth is the process by which nation’s

wealth increase over time.

No TO INVESTIGATE THE EFFECT OF POLITICAL SD D N A SA

INSTABILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

STATEMENT 1 2 3 4 5

1. 1. The political instability influence the process of

economic growth
2. 2. Do you agree that the political instability caused
economic collapse?

58
3. 3. Economic depression, Corruption, inequality
opportunities, poverty, and lack of political
participation caused political instability
4. 4. Political instability strongly affects the economic
growth.
5. 5. Political instability may reduce investment and
speed economic growth

APPENDIX: C BUDGET

NOTE ITEMS USED CHARGES

1 Wi-Fi $12

2 Transportation $8

3 Printing $9

4 Coffee $13

5 Prepaid $4

Note Total $46

59
APPENDIX D: MOGADISHU MAP

60