Plant Disease Epidemiology

DR. K. M. GOLAM DASTOGEER

PROFESSOR & HEAD
DEPARTMENT OF PLANT PATHOLOGY
BANGLADESH AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY
 Objective

By the end of the Plant Disease

Epidemiology Topic, students will
develop a comprehensive understanding
of epidemiological concepts, models,
and tools, enabling them to interpret the
dynamics of plant diseases.
 Learning outcomes
At the end of the lessons, the students will be
able to-
1. Describe major historical developments to appreciate the
evolution of plant disease epidemiology.
2. Define epidemiology and differentiate between various types of
disease epidemics.
3. Explain the concepts of the plant disease triangle and tetrahedron
and pyramid.
4. Narrate the influences of host factors, pathogen factors, and
environmental factors on the components of disease dynamics.
5. Illustrate the concept of monocyclic and polycyclic disease cycles.
6. Explain different models and tools to analyze and interpret plant
disease dynamics.
 Lecture Schedule

Lecture 1 Lecture 2 Lecture 3

1.Major 1.Elements of 1.Monocyclic and
Historical Disease Polycyclic
Developments Epidemic
Dynamics:
2.Epidemiology Host and 2.Models and
and Types of Tools for
Pathogen Analysis
Epidemics and 3.Disease
3.Plant Disease Environment Progress Curve
Triangle and
Tetrahedron
 Lecture 1

Lecture 1 Lecture 2 Lecture 3

1.Major 1.Elements of 1.Monocyclic and
Historical Disease Polycyclic
Developments Epidemic
Dynamics:
2.Epidemiology Host and 2.Models and
and Types of Tools for
Pathogen Analysis
Epidemics and 3.Disease
3.Plant Disease Environment Progress Curve
Triangle and
Tetrahedron
 Lets look-back at some historical events

Late blight of potato

Phythophthora infestans

The Irish famine in 1846. During

the famine, about one million
people died and a million
Famine Memorial
more emigrated from Ireland,
in Dublin
causing the island's population to
fall by between 20% and 25%.
 Lets look-back at some historical events

• Bengal Famine in 1943.

• At least 3 million people
Brown spot of rice died from starvation
Bipolaris oryzae and malnutrition.
 Some historical events

Epidemics of--

ü Bacterial leaf blight of rice in hybrid

rice varieties
ü Wheat rust disease
ü Southern corn leaf blight
ü Grape downy mildew
ü Chestnut blight
ü Dutch elm disease
ü Coffee rusts
 What is Epidemic?
o p le
Epidemic W hat
is a m o ng pe
m ic :
Gr. Epi=upon, among E p id e

Demons=people

"Change in disease intensity in a host population over

time and space."
• Change: often increase -- a dynamic process
• Disease: dealing with diseases, not just the pathogen
(or plant/crop)
• Host: Organism infected (or potentially infected) by
another organism
• Population: a population phenomenon
• Time and space: two physical dimensions of interest
 Epidemic

vGenerally, the sudden

and destructive
development of a plant
disease, usually
involving an extensive
area is called epidemic
or epiphytotic.
 Epidemic

vGenerally, the sudden and

destructive development
of a plant disease, usually
involving an extensive
area is called epidemics or
epiphytotic.

v A phenomenon when a
pathogen spreads to and
affects many individuals
within a population over a Potato Crop Completely Destroyed
relatively large area and
within a relatively short
time.
 Epidemic

v Epidemic denotes the

dynamics of disease,
that is, the change in

Diseas
the amount of disease Temporal
(Incidence or severity)

e
with time and change in Time
the spatial distribution
of lesions or of infected
plants (space).

The Dynamics of Plant Disease

 Epidemic

v Epidemic denotes the

Diseas
dynamics of disease, Temporal

e
that is, the change in
the amount of disease Time
(Incidence or severity)
with time and change
in the spatial
distribution of lesions Spatial
or of infected plants
(space).

The Dynamics of Plant Disease

 Epiphytotic or Epidemic?

Which is more appropriate?

What is your opinion?

14
 Epiphytotic or Epidemic?

• "Epidemic" used for plants If one uses epiphytotic

(instead of
for a long time…..
epidemic), then one
• 1728: Duhamel should use
• 1858: Kuhn epiphytotiology
• 1901: Ward instead of
epidemiology!
• So, there’s no valid reason -(Epiphytology is the
to use "epiphytotic“. study of epiphytes).
• The issue is resolved!!!

15
 What is Epidemiology?

• Study of epidemics.
• Science of disease in populations.
• Study of disease ecology and dynamics.
• Study of the spread of diseases, in space and time,
with the objective to trace factors that are responsible
for, or contribute to, epidemic occurrence.
• The science of populations of pathogens in populations
of host plants, and the diseases resulting therefrom
under the influence of the environment and human
interferences.

16
 Plant Disease Epidemiology–an all encompassing
definition

• Plant disease epidemiology is the scientific study of the

factors influencing the occurrence, spread, and
intensity of plant diseases within populations and over
time. This field examines the complex interactions
among the pathogen, host plant, and environment to
understand how these elements drive disease
dynamics and affect agricultural ecosystems. By
analyzing these interactions, plant disease
epidemiology seeks to quantify and predict disease
spread and to develop effective, sustainable control
strategies for managing disease impact on crop health
and yields.
17
 Why do we study epidemiology?

1. Gain an understanding of how plant disease epidemics occur

in nature and how they can be monitored and analyzed.
2. Learn how plant diseases cause crop losses, how these
losses are quantified, and how losses are predicted.
3. Model disease progress.
4. Assess effectiveness of alternative control measures.
5. Develop effective strategies to control and prevent disease
spread.
6. Safeguard agricultural crops by addressing disease
dynamics.
7. Facilitate resource-efficient agriculture practices.
8. Contribute to global food security through addressing crop
losses.
 Historical Development

• Pliny (~50 AD): Plant

diseases; soil; climate

• Duhamel de Monceau
(1728 AD): Disease
Hippocrates progress curves,
(~400 BC): First Theophrastus
Comparison of plant
use of "epidemic", (~340 BC): Plant
and animal epidemics
widespread diseases in fields,
disease (human Environmental
diseases) influences

19
 Historical Development

Late 19th Century and onward…

• Kuhn (1858) - 1st textbook of plant pathology

• Ward (1901): book "Diseases in Plants" emphasized

ecology (populations) of disease

• Jones (1913) - role of the environment

• Gaumann (1946): "Principles of Plant Infection” -

Disease spread, -Conditions leading to an epidemic, -
'Infection Chain' (= disease cycle), -compare with
medicine (diseases of humans)

20
 Historical Development
• Large (1952, and others)
• -Disease progress curves
• -Crop losses
v D is eas e

• -Disease assessment (measurement)

• Horsfall & Dimond (1960): "Plant Pathology"
• -Populations
• -Inoculum density: disease relations
• -Spore dispersal
• -Analysis (mathematics)
• -Forecasting, prediction
• -Traditional definition ---> Modern definition
• Gregory (1963, 1973)
• "The Microbiology of the Atmosphere"
• -spore dispersal, disease spread
• Aerobiology 21
 Historical Development

• Vanderplank (1963)
v D is eas e

• Book "Plant Diseases: Epidemics and

Control"
• Populations
• Rates (dynamic processes)
• Analysis, mathematics
• Models, theory
• Link epidemiology and control
• Established the science of plant
disease epidemiology
22
 Historical Development

v D is eas e

Other contributors:
• Zadoks (1960-1995), The Netherlands
• Kranz (1968-1995), Germany
• Waggoner (1960-mid --1980s), USA
• S. Nagaranjan 1983-India

23
Types/forms of epidemic
 Endemic

When a disease is more or less constantly occurring year

after year in a moderate to severe form in a country or
locality then it is called as endemic disease.
e. g:
ØAlternaria blight of mustard
ØTikka disease of groundnut
ØWart disease of potato (Synchytrium endobioticum)
ØCitrus canker (Xanthomonas axonopodis pv citri) in
Asia.
 Sporadic

Diseases which occur at irregular intervals over limited

areas or locations are called sporadic. They occur
relatively in few instances.

ØFusarium wilt of cotton (Fusarium oxysporum f sp.

vasiinfectum),
Øgrain smut of sorghum (Sporisorium sorghi) loose smut
of wheat (Ustilago nuda)
 Cyclic
When the disease appears at periodic intervals
in a given locality.

e.g. Choanephora blight of chili

in Mymensingh, Bogra----------7
years

Rice blast
Pabna, Rajshahi-----------------5 years
 Pandemic

When an epidemic disease spreads over

continents or subcontinents and involves
mass mortality, it is considered as pandemic.

e. g. The outbreak of black stem rust of

wheat in India during 1947 is best example
for a pandemic disease.
 Test yourself

1. Which term best describes a 2. In plant disease epidemiology,

disease that occurs constantly year what term is used for a disease that
after year in a specific region? spreads rapidly over continents and
•A. Sporadic involves mass mortality?
•B. Endemic •A. Sporadic
•C. Pandemic •B. Endemic
•D. Cyclic •C. Pandemic
•D. Cyclic

Endemic Pandemic

29
Elements/Factors/
Components of an
epidemic
 The Disease Triangle

To
ta
EN ond as
lo
e , n ce ,
un vir EN

VIR iti e
f c dise
.
etc
ab al of OG
d a u le
Interactions of the

ON ons
H
three main

M fav
To PAT

nc

EN or
components are Amount

T
t
illustrated by the of
disease triangle. disease

in g
Total of conditions favoring
susceptibility
HOST
 Illustration of Plant Disease Triangle

Situation- I
• Host is susceptible
• Pathogen is virulent
• Environment is favorable for
the pathogen but disfavor for
the host

Hence there will be disease

 Illustration of Plant Disease Triangle

Situation- II • Host is susceptible

• Pathogen is virulent
• Environment is not
conducive to the pathogen
to infecting and causing
disease

Hence, disease cannot

occur
 Illustration of Plant Disease Triangle

• Host is susceptible
Situation- III
• The environment
favors the
development of
disease
• But the pathogen is
not present

Hence, there is no
disease
 Disease Tetrahedron

Epidemic
development is also
affected by time

Host
 Disease Pyramid

• Epidemic
development is also
affected by Humans.
• Interactions of the five
components are
depicted by the
disease pyramid.
 Elements/Factors/Components of an epidemic

q In fungal & bacterial q In virus & virus like

diseases diseases

• The Pathogen • The Virus

• The Host • The Host
• Environment • The Vector
• Time • Environment
• Human activity • Human activity
 Test

Rice is transplanted into a field with

rice residue that has the fungus
Bipolaris oryzae, the causal agent of
brown spot of rice, but if the weather
is too dry and there is no leaf wetness,
the spores of the fungus in the residue
cannot germinate and initiate infection.
 Test

Rice is transplanted into a field with rice residue that

has the fungus Bipolaris oryzae, the causal agent of
brown spot of rice, but if the weather is too dry and
there is no leaf wetness, the spores of the fungus in
the residue cannot germinate and initiate infection.

Disease No Disease
 Test

Rice is transplanted into a field with rice residue that

has the fungus Bipolaris oryzae, the causal agent of
brown spot of rice, but if the weather is too dry and
there is no leaf wetness, the spores of the fungus in
the residue cannot germinate and initiate infection.

Disease No Disease
 Test

Taking the same example, the rice is transplanted

into a ploughed field where there is no rice residue
with the fungus Bipolaris oryzae, the causal agent of
brown spot of rice, present but the weather means
long periods of leaf wetness, there is no infection
initiated.

Disease No Disease
 Test

Taking the same example, the rice is transplanted

into a ploughed field where there is no rice residue
with the fungus Bipolaris oryzae, the causal agent of
brown spot of rice, present but the weather means
long periods of leaf wetness, there is no infection
initiated.

Disease No Disease
 Learning outcomes

1. Describe major historical developments to

appreciate the evolution of plant disease
epidemiology.
2. Define epidemiology and differentiate between
various types of epidemics.
3. Explain the concepts of the plant Disease
Triangle, and Disease Tetrahedron and Disease
Pyramid.
 Model Questions
1. Define Plant Disease Epidemiology. Write on the
Contributions of Vanderplank on development of Plant
Disease Epidemiology.
2. Describe the necessity of studying Epidemiology.
Differentiate among various types of epidemics in the field
of plant pathology.
3. Illustrate the Concepts of Disease Triangle, Disease
Tetrahedron, and Disease Pyramid.
4. Expand your idea about Plant Disease Triangle with
Examples
Do you have any questions?
Plant Disease Epidemiology (Lecture-2)

DR. K. M. GOLAM DASTOGEER

PROFESSOR
DEPARTMENT OF PLANT PATHOLOGY
BANGLADESH AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY
 Objective

By the end of the Plant Disease

Epidemiology Topic, students will
develop a comprehensive understanding
of epidemiological concepts, models,
and tools, enabling them to interpret the
dynamics of plant diseases.
 Learning outcomes
At the end of the lessons, the students will be
able to:
1. Describe major historical developments to appreciate the
evolution of plant disease epidemiology.
2. Define epidemiology and differentiate between various types of
disease epidemics.
3. Explain the concepts of the plant disease triangle and tetrahedron
and pyramid.
4. Narrate the influences of host factors, pathogen factors, and
environmental factors on the components of disease dynamics.
5. Illustrate the concept of monocyclic and polycyclic disease cycles.
6. Explain different models and tools to analyze and interpret plant
disease dynamics.
 Lecture Schedule

Lecture 1 Lecture 2 Lecture 3

1.Major 1.Elements of 1.Monocyclic and
Historical Disease Polycyclic
Developments Epidemic
Dynamics:
2.Epidemiology Host and 2.Models and
and Types of Tools for
Pathogen Analysis
Epidemics and 3.Disease
3.Plant Disease Environment Progress Curve
Triangle and
Tetrahedron
 Lecture 2

Lecture 1 Lecture 2 Lecture 3

1.Major 1.Elements of 1.Monocyclic and
Historical Disease Polycyclic
Developments Epidemic
Dynamics:
2.Epidemiology Host and 2.Models and
and Types of Tools for
Pathogen Analysis
Epidemics and 3.Disease
3.Plant Disease Environment Progress Curve
Triangle and
Tetrahedron
 Detail accounts of the
factors affecting the
onset and development
of epidemic
 A. Host factors

1. Genetic Resistance
2. Genetic Uniformity
3. Type of Crop
4. Plant Age and Form
5. Population Density
6. Plant Health and Vigor
7. Previous Infections
1. Levels of Genetic Resistance or Susceptibility of the Host

Vertical Resistance
100
80

Severity
60

(%)
40
20
0

R e1
R e2
al
Vertic c

R e3
R e4
5
ac
an

ac
r e s is t

ac

e
ac
R

ac
o
e … .n ic
m
e p id e
1. Levels of Genetic Resistance or Susceptibility of the Host

100 Horizontal resistance

80

60
Horizontal resistance
40
Epidemic rate depends
on resistance level and 20
environment
0
Race Race Race Race Race
Susceptible 1 2 3 4 5
host……
epidemic
 2. Degree of Genetic Uniformity of Host Plants

Ø Uniform plant grown over large areas-----a greater likelihood of

epidemic.

Vegetatively propagated self-pollinated crops Cross-pollinated

crops High epidemic rate Intermediate rate crops lowest rates
 2. Degree of Genetic Uniformity of Host Plants

Ø Uniform plant grown over large areas-----a greater likelihood of

epidemic.

Vegetatively propagated self-pollinated crops Cross-pollinated

crops High epidemic rate Intermediate rate crops lowest rates

Ø Natural populations
Ø plants of varying genetic makeup
are intermingled
Ø epidemics develop rather slowly
 3. Type of Crop

Ø Annual crops
§ Corn
§ vegetables
§ Rice
§ Cotton
Ø Foliar, blossom, or fruit diseases of trees and vines

• ---------------epidemics generally develop much more

rapidly (usually in a few weeks)

Ø Branches and stems of perennial woody crops such as fruit and

forest trees—longer time to epidemics

• Some epidemics of fruit and forest trees, e.g., tristeza in

citrus, pear decline, Dutch elm disease, and chestnut
blight, take years to develop.
 4. Age and forms of Host Plants

q Ontogenic resistance: change in their reaction (susceptibility or

resistance) to disease with age
In some case–
Ø Damping off and root rots, Hosts are susceptible only
Ø Downy mildews during the growth period
Ø Systemic smuts and become resistant
Ø Some rusts during the adult period.
Ø Bacterial blights
Ø Viral infections

• With several diseases, such as rusts and viral infections, plant parts
are actually quite resistant to infection while still very young,
become more susceptible later in their growth, and then become
resistant again before they are fully expanded.
 4. Age and forms of Host Plants

In other diseases,
• Infections of blossoms or fruit by Botrytis,
Penicillium, Monilinia, and Glomerella,
All postharvest infections,

Plant parts are resistant during growth and the

early adult period but become susceptible near
ripening.
 4. Age and forms of Host Plants

In still other diseases,

• Potato late blight (caused by Phytophthora infestans)
• Tomato early blight (caused by Alternaria solani)

A stage of juvenile susceptibility during the growth period

of the plant is followed by a period of relative resistance in
the early adult stage and then susceptibility after maturity
 Change of susceptibility of plant parts with age
Susceptibility

Life Span of Plant

Pattern I: Plants are susceptible only in the stages of maximum

growth (1a) or in the earliest stages of growth (1b).
 Change of susceptibility of plant
parts with age

Growth period Adult period

Life Span of Plant

Pattern II: Plants are susceptible only after they

reach maturity, and susceptibility increases with
senescence
 Change of susceptibility of plant
parts with age

Growth period Adult period

Susceptibility

Pattern II: Plants are susceptible while very young

and again after they reach maturity.
Form of the host plants

Dwarf wheat and rice cultivars:

• shorter distance between

nodes
• leaves being closer together
• higher relative humidity
• longer period of leaf wetness
favoring infection
• splash-dispersed spores of the
fungus
• foliage is also closer to the soil
 5. Population density and structure of the host plants

Density of the host plants

Modern intensive agriculture and

Natural vegetation
plantation forestry
• Widely spaced
• A single plant are commonly
• Separated by other
planted over a large area
species
• High plant density
• Close spacing
• Diseases are often more serious
 Structure of the host plants:

ØMixed cropping systems ØMonocultures

ØLess Disease ØHigh chance of epidemic
ØSuch a situation occurred with the
introduction of new pathotypes of
bacterial leaf streak pathogen,
Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzicola
in Bangladesh in 2007-2008.
 6. General health of plant

ØNecrotrophic pathogens are often more damaging on

poorly growing than on vigorous hosts, while the
opposite is the case for biotrophs.

ØOlder, over-mature trees are more prone to attack by

certain leaf pathogens, mistletoes and heart rots.
Young, actively growing forests suffer very little from
the effects of these pathogens.

ØThe epidemic development of brown spot disease is

common when rice plants grown in Ca and Zn
deficient soils.
ØBiotrophs derive energy from living cells, they are found on or in
living plants, can have very complex nutrient requirements and
do not kill host plants rapidly. Blumeria (Erysiphe) graminis--
Powdery mildew
ØNecrotrophs derive energy from killed cells; they invade and kill
plant tissue rapidly and then live saprotrophically on the dead
remains. Fusarium oxysporum--Vascular wilt
ØHemibiotrophs have an initial period of biotrophy followed by
necrotrophy. Phytophthora infestans, causing potato late blight (also
called a biotroph by some, necrotroph by others)
 Test yourself

1. Which of the following is not a host 2. Plant resistance or susceptibility

factor to pathogen remain constant
throughout the life cycle
A. Population Density
B. Virulence A. Ture
C. Resistance B. False
D. Type of plant

Virulence False

70
B. Pathogen factors
 1. Presence of pathogen

• The outbreaks of bacterial leaf

streak disease in hybrid rice
cultivars in Bangladesh in 2007-
2008 results from the introduction
of virulent strains of Xanthomonas
oryzae pv. oryzicola through
importing hybrid rice seeds.
• Because the rice cultivars were
resistant to local pathotypes but
are not resistant to the new
pathotypes introduced.
2. Level of virulence and aggressiveness of the pathogen

Pathogenicity: ability of a pathogen to cause disease.

Virulence
• Ability to infect cultivars which have certain resistance
genes.

Aggressiveness
• The vigor with which it infects cultivars
 3. Quantity of Inoculum near Hosts

The greater the number of pathogen propagules

(bacteria, fungal spores and sclerotia, nematode
eggs, virus infected plants, etc.) within or near
fields of host plants, the more inoculum reaches
the hosts and at an earlier time, thereby increasing
the chances of an epidemic greatly.
Effect of amount of soil inoculum of Verticillium dahliae on the
amount of vascular wilt on potato plants at various dates after
planting
 4. Type of Reproduction of the Pathogen

Monocyclic pathogens Polycyclic pathogens

• one to a few reproductive • short reproduction cycles
cycles per growing season • produce many generations in a
• the smaller number of single growing season
offspring • Phytophthora infestans, fungi that
• e.g. some soil fungi, such as cause rusts, mildews, and leaf
Fusarium and Verticillium, and spots
most nematodes. • responsible for most of the
• Epidemic is usually polyetic, sudden, catastrophic plant
i.e., it develops over several disease epidemics in the world.
years
Schematic representation of a polyetic epidemic caused by a soil
borne pathogen over a period of 4 years
 5. Ecology of the Pathogen

Most fungi and

Some pathogens reproduce on host surface
all parasitic
• disperse with ease higher plants
• can cause widespread epidemics
Vascular
fungi and
Other pathogens reproduce inside the plant bacteria,
Ø spread rare or impossible without the help of vectors viruses, and
Ø can cause epidemics only when vectors are plentiful protozoa
and active.

Soil-borne Still other pathogens produce their inoculum on infected plant

fungi, parts in the soil
bacteria, and • disperse slowly
nematodes. • presents little danger for sudden or widespread epidemics.
 6. Adaptability

• Very important in determining its ability to overcome resistance

in newly released cultivars or to adapt to changed
environmental conditions (e.g. the introduction of irrigation or
the planting of a crop only in drier parts of its potential range).

• Adaptability is governed by the genetic flexibility of the pathogen

population and its reproductive efficiency.

• For example, P. infestans has high reproductive efficiency and,

in spite of the absence of a sexual reproductive cycle, has the
potential to develop new pathotypes by asexual means such as
mutation, heterokaryosis and parasexualism to adapt.

• The dynamic changes of population of BLB pathogen, X. oryzae

pv. oryzae due to its genome rearrangement cause outbreak of
the disease in our country in many years through its adaptation.
 7. Survival efficiency

ü This is especially important for soil-borne

pathogens.
ü Some smut fungi and Plasmodiophora brassicae,
the cause of club root of crucifers, form spores
that survive in soil for many years
ü The sclerotia of Sclerotium rolfsii and Sclerotinia
spp. survive for long periods in soil.
ü The survival of cereal rusts between growing
seasons is a critical factor in determining the
likelihood of epidemics. A wet summer allows the
growth of volunteer cereal plants on which the rust
can survive resulting in larger quantities of
inoculum to initiate epidemics in the new growing
season.
 8. Reproductive fitness

• Semelparous ------reproduces once

• Iteroparous ----- reproduces multiple times.
• Number of propagules produced by plant pathogens
9. Mode of Spread / Dispersal efficiency of the Pathogen

• Airborne spores responsible for the most frequent and

most widespread epidemics: Rusts, mildews, and leaf
spots.
• Airborne vectors: aphids, whiteflies, and some other
insects.
• Transmitted by rain splash: severe but somewhat
localized epidemics within a field, a country, or a valley.
• Seed or other propagules transmission: epidemics
depends on effectiveness of their subsequent
transmission to new plants.
• Soil transmission: less chance to cause sudden or
widespread epidemics.
 Test
• Which term describes the
overall ability of a pathogen
to cause disease in a plant?
• a) Virulence
Which term is concerned with the rate of spore
• b) Aggressiveness germination, mycelial growth, and transmission
• c) Pathogenicity efficiency of a pathogen?
• d) Invasiveness • a) Pathogenicity
• b) Virulence
• c) Resistance
• d) Aggressiveness

5.d) Aggressiveness
1.c) Pathogenicity
Environmental Factors
 C. Environmental factors

The environment may affect------

Pathogen:
Host: • survival
o availability • vigor
• rate of multiplication
o growth stage • sporulation
o succulence • dispersal
• spore germination and
o genetic susceptibility penetration
• number and activity of the
vectors
Environmental factors……………..

a. The Aerial environmental factors

i. Moisture
ii. Temperature
a. The Edaphic environmental
factors
i. Soil water
ii. Soil fertility
iii. Soil organic matter content
 i. Moisture:

• promotes the susceptible growth in the host

• promotes sporulation of fungi
• promotes multiplication of bacteria
• facilitates spore release of many fungi
• facilitates oozing of bacteria
• enables germination of spores, zoospores, bacteria.
• enables nematodes to move.
• increase the activity of some vectors, fungal and
nematode vectors of viruses
• reduce the activity of the vectors: aphid, leafhopper,
and other insect vectors of some viruses.
 Effect of foliage density on development of
Phytophthora infestans during a period of

§Very
favorable
weather
§ Partly favorable
weather (May–
June) and
 ii. Temperature

§ Epidemics are sometimes favored by higher or lower temperatures

because they reduce the plant’s level of resistance

§ Plants growing at such temperatures become “stressed” and

predisposed to disease

§ Low temperature reduces the amount of inoculum of oomycete

fungi, bacteria, and nematodes

§ Low temperatures can reduce the number of vectors

§ High temperature reduces the inoculum of viruses that survives hot

summer temperatures.
The most common effect of temperature on epidemics, however, is its
effect on the pathogen during the different stages of pathogenesis, i.e.,
spore germination and or egg hatching, host penetration, pathogen
growth and/or reproduction, invasion of the host, and sporulation.

When temperature stays within a favorable range for each of these

stages, a polycyclic pathogen can complete its infection cycle within a
very short time (usually in a few days) and can produce many infection
cycles within a growing season. As a results, more plants becoming
infected by more and more new inoculum, thus leading to the
development of a severe epidemic.
 b. The Edaphic environmental factors

i. Soil water
• Soil-borne diseases
• pythiaceous fungi require a period of soil saturation to allow
germination of survival propagules and infection of roots.
• The zoospores require free water for their release and
mobility.
• Nematodes require adequate soil water content for their
motility.
ii. Soil fertility

vPlant in poor soil…..Some facultative

pathogens cause much more disease.

vVigorous well-fertilized plants---- biotrophic

pathogens such as rusts and powdery
mildews
iii. Soil organic matter content

Ø Some soil-borne pathogens e.g. Rhizoctonta

solani is more common in poorer, sandy soils.

Ø In some cases, soils high in OM has many

antagonistic microorganisms which reduce the
survival time of plant pathogens.
 D. Time factors

• The amount of each of the three components (host, pathogen

and environment) of plant disease and their interactions in the
development of disease are affected by time.
• The amount of disease are affected by both the specific point
in time at which a particular event in disease development
occurs and the length of time during which the event takes
place e.g., Late blight, BLB
• The effect of time on disease development becomes apparent
when one considers the importance of the time of year i.e., the
climatic conditions and stage of growth when host and
pathogen may coexist, the duration and frequency of favorable
temperature and rains, the timely of appearance of the vector,
the duration of the infection cycle of a particular disease, and
so on.
• In this way, time plays an important role in epidemic
development of a disease.
 E. Human

Many activities of humans have a direct or

indirect effect on plant disease epidemics,
some of them favoring and some reducing
the frequency and the rate of epidemics.

1. Site Selection and Preparation

2. Selection of Propagative Material
3. Cultural Practices
4. Disease Control Measures
5. Introduction of New Pathogens
 E. Human

1. Site Selection and Preparation

• poorly drained clay soils. 4. Disease Control Measures

• BLB faster in the low lying areas.
• Chemical sprays,
2. Selection of Propagative Material • cultural practices,.
• The infected propagative material • Chemical resistance
3. Cultural Practices

• Continuous monoculture, • 5. Introduction of New

• high levels of nitrogen fertilization Pathogens
• no-till culture • Worldwide movement.
• dense plantings
• overhead irrigation
• injury by herbicide application
• poor sanitation all increase the possibility and severity
of epidemics.
 Recap………….

1. Disease Triangle
2. Disease Tetrahedron
3. Disease Pyramid
• Host Factors
• Resistance
• Age
• Type
• Uniformity
• Health
• Density
 Recap….

• Pathogen Factors:
• Presence
• Virulence and aggressiveness
• Abundance
• Reproduction
• Ecology
• Transmission
• Adaptability
• Environment
• Moisture
• Temperature
• Soil
• Time
• Human
 Learning outcomes

1. Narrate the influences of host factors, pathogen factors, and

environmental factors as the component of disease
dynamics.
 Model Questions

1. Discuss the Impact of Plant Age on the Development of

Epidemic Diseases
2. Elaborate the concept of Ontogenic Resistance in context
of Plant Disease Epidemics.
3. Provide an Overview of Diverse Host Factors Contributing
to Plant Disease Epidemics.
4. Provide an Overview of Diverse Pathogenic Factors
Contributing to Plant Disease Epidemics.
5. Provide an Overview of Diverse Environmental Factors
Contributing to Plant Disease Epidemics.
Do you have any questions
Thanks
Plant Disease Epidemiology (Lecture-4)

DR. K. M. GOLAM DASTOGEER

PROFESSOR
DEPARTMENT OF PLANT PATHOLOGY
BANGLADESH AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY
 Objective

By the end of the Plant Disease

Epidemiology Topic, students will
develop a comprehensive understanding
of epidemiological concepts, models,
and tools, enabling them to interpret the
dynamics of plant diseases.
 Learning outcomes
At the end of the lessons, the students will be
able to-
1. Describe major historical developments to appreciate the
evolution of plant disease epidemiology.
2. Define epidemiology and differentiate between various types of
disease epidemics.
3. Explain the concepts of the plant disease triangle and tetrahedron
and pyramid.
4. Narrate the influences of host factors, pathogen factors, and
environmental factors on the components of disease dynamics.
5. Illustrate the concept of monocyclic and polycyclic disease cycles.
6. Explain different mathematical models in relation to plant disease
dynamics.
 Lecture Schedule

Lecture 1 Lecture 2 Lecture 3

1.Major 1.Elements 1.Monocyclic
Historical of Disease and
Developme Dynamics: Polycyclic
nts Host and Epidemic
2.Epidemiolo Pathogen 2.Mathematic
gy and and al Models
Types of Environme
Epidemics nt
3.Plant
Disease
Triangle
 Lecture 3

Lecture 1 Lecture 2 Lecture 3

1.Major 1.Elements of 1.Monocyclic
Historical Disease
Developments and
Dynamics:
2.Epidemiology Host and
Polycyclic
and Types of Pathogen Epidemic
Epidemics and 2.Mathematic
3.Plant Disease Environment al Models
Triangle and
Tetrahedron
The Cyclical Nature of Plant Disease

The inoculum-

• fungal spores,
• bacterial cells,
• nematodes,
• viruses within a
vector,
• some other
propagules of a
pathogen
 Monocyclic pathogen

A monocyclic pathogen Examples of Monocyclic

• Completes just one Diseases:
disease cycle per • Blackleg of potato
season. (Erwinia caratovora)
• Primary inoculum is the • Verticillium wilt
only inoculum available • Cereal Cyst
for the entire season, Nematode
• There is no secondary • Many soilborne
inoculum and no diseases, e.g., root
secondary infection. rots and vascular
wilts 110
 Monocyclic Disease/Monocyclic Epidemics

In general, there are three types of plant

diseases that tend to produce only one
infection cycle per host cycle
1. postharvest diseases
2. diseases caused by some soilborne
plant pathogens, and
3. rusts without a urediniospore stage.

111
Monocyclic Disease
 Polycyclic pathogens/Disease

• Pathogens that produce more than one (2 to 30) infection

cycle per crop cycle
• Disseminate primarily by air or airborne vectors (insects)
• Responsible for epidemics on most crops
• downy mildews
• late blight of potato
• powdery mildews
• leaf spots and blights
• grain rusts
• insect borne viruses.

113
Polycyclic pathogens/Disease

114
 Polyetic(multiyear) pathogens

• In some diseases of trees, • Several rusts of trees and

fungal vascular wilts, the mistletoes,they attack
phytoplasmal declines, and several years to go through
viral infections, pathogen all the stages of their life
may not complete a disease cycle and to initiate new
cycle, it may not produce infections.
inoculum that can be • Dutch elm disease, cedar
disseminated and initiate apple rust, white pine blister
new infections, until at least rust, and citrus tristeza
the following year and some
may take longer.

115
Schematic representation of a polyetic
epidemic caused by a soil borne
pathogen over a period of 4 years
 Disease Progress Curve

100
• The "Disease Progress 80

Curve" is a graphical Percent

Plant
60

representation that illustrates Infected

40

the temporal development 20

0
and intensity of a plant 0 20 40 60 80
disease within a population of Days After Planting

plants over time.

• It provides a visual depiction
of how the disease
progresses from the initial
stages to its peak and,
potentially, the decline phase.

117
Why Is Disease Progress Curve important ?

• Monitoring Disease Spread

• Understanding Disease Dynamics
• Assessing Treatment Efficacy
• Facilitating Research
• Optimizing Resource Management
• Facilitating Communication
• Forecasting Epidemics of Disease
• Informing Control Strategies
Mathematical
Models
 Monocyclic Inoculum Production

• Q1 = Q0 + increment • Q1 =quantity of initial

• Q1 = Q0 + RQ0 inoculum at the
beginning of the
• The value current season,
of R depends on a • Q0=quantity of initial
large number of inoculum at the
factors, including beginning of the
environmental
conditions, crop previous season
development, and • R = proportionality
cultural practices. constant
 Monocyclic Disease Progress

• Disease progress in a monocyclic epidemic is

proportional to the amount of initial inoculum (which is
itself constant during the epidemic), we can make the
slope of the disease progress curve the product of initial
inoculum and a proportionality constant.

Q1 = Q0 + increment
Q1 = Q0 + RQ0
Q1 - Q0 = RQ0
Q1 - Q0 is the change in disease progress over time

• Therefore, we can describe a monocyclic epidemic with

linear disease progress using the differential equation:

dx/dt = QR
 Monocyclic Disease Progress

dx/dt = QR • dx = infinitesimally small increment

in the proportion of disease
If we integrate the above differential
equation, we get: • dt = infinitesimally small time step,
x = QRt • Q =amount of initial inoculum,
• R = a proportionality constant that
represents the rate of disease
progress per unit of inoculum.

Graphically we see a straight

line with an intercept of zero and
a slope of QR
 Task/activity 1

• dx/dt = QR • x = QRt
 Monocyclic Disease Progress

Example 1, a monocyclic epidemic: Tomato wilt is caused by the

fungus Fusarium oxysporum. Chlamydospores of the fungus persist for
several years in the soil, and when tomato is planted in an infested field,
the young plants are infected through the roots. An extensive soil survey
was made of a heavily infested field, and it was found to contain an
average of 57 colony-forming units per gram of soil. When a susceptible
tomato cultivar was planted in this field, the percent of plants showing wilt
symptoms increased with time as follows:

Days After % Plants

Planting Infected
10 18
20 56
30 82
40 91
50 96
60 98
 Task/activity 2

• Plot day (x-axis) vs % infection (y axis) in excel

• t=days after planting
• x= %infected plants/100
• Transform x using ln(1/(1-x)) inn excel
• Now plot day vs ln(1/(1-x)) in excel
• Get the slope QR =?
• R=?
 Monocyclic Disease Progress

In a plot of disease progress, note how the percent infection

asymptotically approaches 100 percent.

100
80
60
Infected
% Plant

40
Tomato wilt disease progress
20
0
0 20 40 60 80
Days After Planting
 Monocyclic Disease Progress

To estimate the product, QR, t x ln(1/(1-x))

we first have to convert percent
infection to the proportion, x, 10 .18 0.198
and then using the 20 .56 0.821
transformation appropriate for
30 .82 1.71
the monocyclic model,
calculate ln(1/(1-x)). 40 .91 2.41
50 .96 3.22
60 .98 3.91
 Monocyclic Disease Progress

From a plot of ln(1/(1-x)) versus t, we can fit a

straight line to the data points using least
squares regression.

Tomato wilt, multiple hit

transformation
 Monocyclic Disease Progress

The slope of the line estimated by the

regression equation is 0.076, which is the
value of QR. Therefore,

R = 0.076/57 = 0.0013/CFU/Day.
 Task/activity 3: Practical Use

• Example 1: Suppose that in the tomato wilt example

we surveyed an adjacent field and found a level of
initial inoculum that was 1% of that in the field
showing severe wilt symptoms. What incidence of
infection would we expect in this field at the end of
the season (60 days)?
• In our example we averaged of 57 colony-forming
units per gram of soil, so 1% of that would be 0.57
CFU. We calculated R to be 0.0013/CFU/Day, and
therefore the proportion of plants infected after 60
days would be:
x = QRt = (0.57)(0.0013)(60)
= 0.044 or about 4%
 For polyetic epidemic
• Q1 =quantity of initial
inoculum at the beginning
• Q1 = Q0 + increment of the current season,
• Q0=quantity of initial
• Q1 = Q0 + KQ0 inoculum at the beginning
of the previous season
• QT+1 = QT + KQT • K = proportionality
constant
• • T= Time
 Polycyclic Inoculum Production

• qT+ΔT = qT + qTk⋅ΔT
• qT+ΔT - qT = qTk⋅ΔT
qT+ΔT - qT is the difference between the amount
of inoculum at time T and the amount of
inoculum at time T+ΔT which we can represent
as Δq.
• Δq = qTk⋅ΔT
• Δq/ΔT = qTk
• dq/dt =qk
• Using the calculus, this equation can be
integrated to:

• q = q0ekt

HOW???
 Here is how!

• dq/dt =qk
• Separate variables: dq/q = kdt
• Integrate both sides: ∫ dq/q = k∫dt
• lnq=kt+lnqo
• lnq= lnekt +lnqo [lnek = k]
• lnq= ln(qoekt) [ln (MN) = lnM+lnN)
• q= qoekt (Taking antilog)
 Polycyclic Disease Progress

• In a model analogous to that

of polycyclic inoculum production, the
rate of change in disease is
proportional to amount of disease at
any point in time. Therefore, in
differential form, the equation to
describe polycyclic epidemics is:
• dx/dt = xr
• In the integrated form the model is:
• x = x0ert
• where x0 is the proportion of disease at
the start of the epidemic and e is the
base of the natural logarithm. V
Polycyclic Disease Progress

Time
 Polycyclic Disease Progress

• Example 2, a polycyclic epidemic: Bacterial

leaf blight of rice is caused by the
bacterium Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae. Days
% Plants
The major source of initial inoculum is After
infected seeds that when planted give rise Infected
Planting
to plants with lesions on the primary leaves.
Bacteria produced in these lesions are 10 1
splash dispersed to adjacent healthy plants.
20 4
New lesions can themselves produce
secondary inoculum within about 4-5 days. 30 15
Under conditions moderately favorable for 40 31
disease development, the following
observations were made of disease 50 65
progress: 60 88
70 94
 Task/activity 3

• Plot day (x-axis) vs % infection (y

axis) in excel
• t=days after planting
• x= %infected plants/100
• Transform x using ln(x/(1-x)) inn
excel
• Now plot day vs ln(x/(1-x)) in excel
• Get the slope (rate) r =?
 Polycyclic Disease Progress

• Disease progress shows the sigmoid-shaped curve characteristic of a

polycyclic epidemic.

Blight disease progress

 Polycyclic Disease Progress

t x ln(x/(1-x))
10 .01 -4.60
• As with the previous
epidemic, we have to 20 .04 -3.18
convert the percents to 30 .15 -1.75
proportions (x), but this time 40 .31 -0.80
the transformation that we
use is ln(x/(1-x)). 50 .65 0.62
60 .88 1.99
70 .94 2.75
 Polycyclic Disease Progress

• By plotting ln(x/(1-
x)), sometimes
called the logits of x,
versus t, we can fit a
straight line to the
data points with
least squares
regression.

BLB, logistic transformation

 Polycyclic Disease Progress

The regression gives us a slope of 0.124/day, which is our estimate of

the apparent infection rate, r.

Obviously the more data points that we have, particularly if they are
relatively evenly distributed on both sides of 50% infection, the better
estimate we will have of the apparent infection rate. However, it is
possible to make a rough estimate of the apparent infection rate with
just two data points. Let us suppose for a moment that instead of
observations every ten days during the epidemic, we only made two
observations, one early (day 10) and one late (day 70). How might we
estimate the apparent infection rate? In this case we would be using
only the first and the final points in the plot of the transformed data
above and calculating the slope as the rise over the run:

r = (ln(0.94/(1.0-0.94)) - ln(0.01/1.0-0.01))) / (70 - 10)

= (2.75 + 4.60) / 60
= 0.123/day
 Task/activity 4:Practical Uses

• Problem 2: Suppose that in the blight example we

wanted to estimate what incidence of seed infection
would be the maximum tolerable to keep the final
incidence of disease below 25%. We will assume a
90-day season?
• Solve:
 Activity 4:Practical Uses

x = x0ert
• x = 0.25, r = 0.124/Day, and t= 90 Days,
• So, we get: 0.25 = x0 exp((0.124)(90))

• 0.25 = x0 exp(11.16)
x0 = 0.25/70263 = 0.0000036
• This calculates to an initial disease incidence
of about one plant in 280,000. (approx.)
145
146
 Epidemic Manganement
• Ways to decrease the rate
• Ways to reduce disease of disease development
(inoculum) at beginning (xo) (infection rate) (r)
• Affects monocyclic and • Change the
polycyclic diseases environment (e.g.
• Host plant resistance moisture)
• Fertilizer application. e.
• Fumigation g. K
• Certified seed • Pesticide Application
• Host plant resistance
• Sanitation
• Seed treatments • Ways to change t
• Quarantine • Harvest early before
disease becomes severe.
• Plant early (cereal cyst
nematode) 147
 New Tools in Epidemiology
1. For rapid & accurate detection & identification of pathogens

Molecular tools, such as

• Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR),
• Enzyme Linked Immunosorbant Assay (ELISA),
• DNA Fingerprinting
• Sequencing
2. Data management
• Geographic Information System (GIS),
• Global Positioning System (GPS),
• Remote Sensing, etc.
3. Disease modeling & forecasting
• To predict the probability of outbreaks
• To assist in disease control strategies

148
 Learning outcomes

5. Illustrate the concept of monocyclic and polycyclic disease

cycles.
6. Explain different models and tools to analyze and interpret
plant disease dynamics.
 Retrospect

What did we learn from this topic?

• Epidemiology
• Epidemics, Types
• Factors: Host, pathogen, Env, Time, Human
• Disease progress curve
• Math model: Monocyclic, polycyclic
• Analyze
 Learning outcomes: Have we achieved the target?

At the end of the lessons, the students will be

able to-
1. Describe major historical developments to appreciate the
evolution of plant disease epidemiology.
2. Define epidemiology and differentiate between various types of
disease epidemics.
3. Explain the concepts of the plant disease triangle and tetrahedron
and pyramid.
4. Narrate the influences of host factors, pathogen factors, and
environmental factors on the components of disease dynamics.
5. Illustrate the concept of monocyclic and polycyclic disease cycles.
6. Explain different mathematical models related to plant disease
dynamics.
 Back to objective the objective

By the end of the Plant Disease Epidemiology

Topic, students will develop a comprehensive
understanding of epidemiological concepts, models,
and tools, enabling them to interpret the dynamics
of plant diseases.
Readings Recommended
1. Plant Pathology: GN Agrios
2. Plant disease Epidemiology–S.
Nagaranjan-India
3. The Study of Plant Disease
Epidemics Laurence V. Madden,
Gareth Hughes, and Frank van
den Bosch 2017
4. A text book of plant pathology- H.
Ashrafuzzaman-Bangladesh
5. American Phytopathological
Society Website Edication
materials
6. Journal articles

153
Any questions
Next Topic: Plant Disease Forecasting