MATH 3 – Engineering Data Analysis

Learning Plan
Lesson No: 1.1
Lesson Title: The Engineering Method and Statistical Thinking

Let’s Hit These:

At the end of this lesson, students should be able to:
• Identify the role that statistics play in the engineering problem-solving process.
• Discuss how variability affects the data collected and used for making engineering
decisions
• Explain the difference between enumerative and analytical studies
Let’s Get Started:
Explain briefly your answer for the question below:
▪ As an engineering student, state your method in engineering problem-solving
process.?
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Let’s Find Out:
The first lesson of this course is all about the engineering method and statistical thinking,
which will introduce the engineering or scientific method and statistical method approach in
formulating and solving problems.

Let’s Read:

An engineer is someone who solves problems of interest to society by the efficient

application of scientific principles. Engineers accomplish this by either refining an existing product
or process or by designing a new product or process that meets customers’ needs. The engineering,
or scientific, method is the approach to formulating and solving these problems. The steps in the
engineering method are as follows:
▪ Develop a clear and concise description of the problem.
▪ Identify, at least tentatively, the important factors that affect this problem or that may
play a role in its solution.
▪ Propose a model for the problem, using scientific or engineering knowledge of the
phenomenon being studied. State any limitations or assumptions of the model.
▪ Conduct appropriate experiments and collect data to test or validate the tentative
model or conclusions made in steps 2 and 3.
▪ Refine the model on the basis of the observed data.
▪ Manipulate the model to assist in developing a solution to the problem.
 MATH 3 – Engineering Data Analysis

▪ Conduct an appropriate experiment to confirm that the proposed solution to the problem
is both effective and efficient.
▪ Draw conclusions or make recommendations based on the problem solution.

The steps in the engineering method are shown in Fig. 1-1. Notice that the engineering
method features a strong interplay between the problem, the factors that may influence its solution,
a model of the phenomenon, and experimentation to verify the adequacy of the model and the
proposed solution to the problem. Steps 2–4 in Fig. 1-1 are enclosed in a box, indicating that
several cycles or iterations of these steps may be required to obtain the final solution.
Consequently, engineers must know how to efficiently plan experiments, collect data, analyze
and interpret the data, and understand how the observed data are related to the model they have
proposed for the problem under study.
The field of statistics deals with the collection, presentation, analysis, and use of data to
make decisions, solve problems, and design products and processes. Because many aspects of
engineering practice involve working with data, obviously some knowledge of statistics is
important to any engineer. Specifically, statistical techniques can be a powerful aid in designing
new products and systems, improving existing designs, and designing, developing, and improving
production processes.

Figure 1.1. The Engineering Method

Statistical methods are used to help us describe and understand variability. By variability, we mean
that successive observations of a system or phenomenon do not produce exactly the same result.
We all encounter variability in our everyday lives, and statistical thinking can give us a useful way
to incorporate this variability into our decision-making processes. For example, consider the
gasoline mileage performance of your car. Do you always get exactly the same mileage
performance on every tank of fuel? Of course, not—in fact, sometimes the mileage performance
varies considerably. This observed variability in gasoline mileage depends on many factors, such
as the type of driving that has occurred most recently (city versus highway), the changes in
condition of the vehicle over time (which could include factors such as tire inflation, engine
compression, or valve wear), the brand and/or octane number of the gasoline used, or possibly
even the weather conditions that have been recently experienced. These factors represent potential
sources of variability in the system. Statistics gives us a framework for describing this variability
and for learning about which potential sources of variability are the most important or which have
the greatest impact on the gasoline mileage performance.
 MATH 3 – Engineering Data Analysis

We also encounter variability in dealing with engineering problems. For example, suppose
that an engineer is designing a nylon connector to be used in an automotive engine application.
The engineer is considering establishing the design specification on wall thickness at 3/32 inch but
is somewhat uncertain about the effect of this decision on the connector pull-off force. If the pull-
off force is too low, the connector may fail when it is installed in an engine. Eight prototype units
are produced and their pull-off forces measured, resulting in the following data (in pounds): 12.6,
12.9, 13.4, 12.3, 13.6, 13.5, 12.6, 13.1. As we anticipated, not all of the prototypes have the same
pull-off force. We say that there is variability in the pull-off force measurements. Because the pull-
off force measurements exhibit variability, we consider the pull-off force to be a random variable.
A convenient way to think of a random variable, say X, that represents a measurement, is by using
the model.

where μ is a constant and ϵ is a random disturbance. The constant remains the same with every
measurement, but small changes in the environment, test equipment, differences in the individual
parts themselves, and so forth change the value of ϵ.
Figure 1-2 presents a dot diagram of these data. The dot diagram is a very useful plot for
displaying a small body of data—say, up to about 20 observations. This plot allows us to see easily
two features of the data; the location, or the middle, and the scatter or variability. When the number
of observations is small, it is usually difficult to identify any specific patterns in the variability,
although the dot diagram is a convenient way to see any unusual data features.
The need for statistical thinking arises often in the solution of engineering problems. Consider the
engineer designing the connector. From testing the prototypes, he knows that the average pull-off
force is 13.0 pounds. However, he thinks that this may be too low for the thickness, 1/8 inch. Eight
prototypes of this design are built, and the observed pull-off force measurements are 12.9, 13.7,
12.8, 13.9, 14.2, 13.2, 13.5, and 13.1. The average is 13.4. Results for both samples are plotted as
dot diagrams in Fig. 1-3. This display gives the impression that increasing the wall thickness has
led to an increase in pull-off force. However, there are some obvious questions to ask. For instance,
how do we know that another sample of prototypes will not give different results? Is a sample of
eight prototypes adequate to give reliable results? If we use the test results obtained so far to
conclude that increasing the wall thickness increases the strength, what risks are associated with
this decision? For example, is it possible that the apparent increase in pull-off force observed in
the thicker prototypes is only due to the inherent variability in the system and that increasing the
thickness of the part (and its cost) really has no effect on the pull-off force?

Often, physical laws (such as Ohm’s law and the ideal gas law) are applied to help design
products and processes. We are familiar with this reasoning from general laws to specific cases.
But it is also important to reason from a specific set of measurements to more general cases to
 MATH 3 – Engineering Data Analysis

answer the previous questions. This reasoning is from a sample (such as the eight connectors) to a
population (such as the connectors that will be sold to customers). The reasoning is referred to as
statistical inference. See Fig. 1-4. Historically, measurements were obtained from a sample of
people and generalized to a population, and the terminology has remained. Clearly, reasoning
based on measurements from some objects to measurements on all objects can result in errors
(called sampling errors). However, if the sample is selected properly, these risks can be quantified
and an appropriate sample size can be determined. In some cases, the sample is actually selected
from a well-defined population. The sample is a subset of the population. For example, in a study
of resistivity a sample of three wafers might be selected from a production lot of wafers in
semiconductor manufacturing. Based on the resistivity data collected on the three wafers in the
sample, we want to draw a conclusion about the resistivity of all of the wafers in the lot. In other
cases, the population is conceptual (such as with the connectors), but it might be thought of as
future replicates of the objects in the sample. In this situation, the eight prototype connectors must
be representative, in some sense, of the ones that will be manufactured in the future. Clearly, this
analysis requires some notion of stability as an additional assumption. For example, it might be
assumed that the sources of variability in the manufacture of the prototypes (such as temperature,
pressure, and curing time) are the same as those for the connectors that will be manufactured in
the future and ultimately sold to customers.

The wafers-from-lots example is called an enumerative study. A sample is used to make

an inference to the population from which the sample is selected. The connector example is called
an analytic study. A sample is used to make an inference to a conceptual (future) population. The
statistical analyses are usually the same in both cases, but an analytic study clearly requires an
assumption of stability. See Fig. 1-5.

Let’s Remember:

An engineer is someone who solves problems of interest to society by the efficient

application of scientific principles. Engineers accomplish this by either refining an existing product
or process or by designing a new product or process that meets customers’ needs. The engineering,
 MATH 3 – Engineering Data Analysis

or scientific, method is the approach to formulating and solving these problems. The steps in the
engineering method are as follows:
▪ Develop a clear and concise description of the problem.
▪ Identify, at least tentatively, the important factors that affect this problem or that may
play a role in its solution.
▪ Propose a model for the problem, using scientific or engineering knowledge of the
phenomenon being studied. State any limitations or assumptions of the model.
▪ Conduct appropriate experiments and collect data to test or validate the tentative
model or conclusions made in steps 2 and 3.
▪ Refine the model on the basis of the observed data.
▪ Manipulate the model to assist in developing a solution to the problem.
▪ Conduct an appropriate experiment to confirm that the proposed solution to the problem
is both effective and efficient.
▪ Draw conclusions or make recommendations based on the problem solution.

The wafers-from-lots example is called an enumerative study. A sample is used to make an

inference to the population from which the sample is selected. The connector example is called an
analytic study. A sample is used to make an inference to a conceptual (future) population. The
statistical analyses are usually the same in both cases, but an analytic study clearly requires an
assumption of stability