APPENDIX
APPENDIX
• The future value (FV) in 𝑡 years of amount 𝐴 invested with a yearly interest of 𝑟 is: 𝑨𝒆𝒓𝒕 .
• The present value (PV) of amount 𝐴 discounted by 𝑡 years with a yearly interest of 𝑟 is: 𝑨𝒆−𝒓𝒕 .
• The expected value of a discrete variable 𝑋 can be calculated as: 𝐸(𝑋) = ∑𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑥 𝑥 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) .
• The expected value of the product of two discrete variables 𝑋 and 𝑌 can be calculated as:
𝐸(𝑋𝑌) = ∑𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑥𝑦 𝑥𝑦 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋𝑌 = 𝑥𝑦) .
• The variance of a discrete variable 𝑋 can be calculated as: 𝑉(𝑋) = 𝐸(𝑋 2 ) − (𝐸(𝑋))2, where
obviously: 𝐸(𝑋) = ∑𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑥 𝑥 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥), and 𝐸(𝑋 2 ) = ∑𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑥 𝑥 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) .
• The standard deviation is equal to the square root of the variance.
• A European/American call option gives its owner the right to buy its underlying asset at a certain
price on/by a certain date. The certain price at which an option is exercised is called the “strike
price” 𝐾.
• A European/American put option gives its owner the right to sell its underlying asset at a certain
price on/by a certain date. The certain price at which an option is exercised is called the “strike
price” 𝐾.
• The pay-off at expiration 𝑇 for the owner (i.e. the party taking a long position) of a European call
option (on an asset whose spot price at expiration is 𝑆𝑇 ) is 𝐦𝐚𝐱(𝑺𝑻 − 𝑲, 𝟎) .
• The pay-off at expiration 𝑇 for the owner (i.e. the party taking a long position) of a European put
option (on an asset whose spot price at expiration is 𝑆𝑇 ) is 𝐦𝐚𝐱(𝑲 − 𝑺𝑻 , 𝟎) .
• The following are some basic inequalities which are satisfied by option prices, assuming that all of
the options have a particular stock (which doesn’t pay dividends) as their underlying asset; the
stock’s spot price is 𝑆, all of the options expire in 𝑇 years and have a strike price of 𝐾. Furthermore,
𝑐 and 𝑝 the current prices of European call and put options, whereas 𝐶 and 𝑃 are the current prices
of American call and put options. Finally, 𝑟 is the 𝑇–years spot interest rate.
𝑐, 𝐶, 𝑝, 𝑃 ≥ 0
𝑐≤𝐶≤𝑆
𝑝≤𝑃≤𝐾
𝑐 > 𝑆 − 𝐾𝑒 −𝑟𝑇
𝑝 > 𝐾𝑒 −𝑟𝑇 − 𝑆
𝑐 + 𝐾𝑒 −𝑟𝑇 = 𝑝 + 𝑆
𝑐=𝐶
• Here is a summary of the typical results about the prices of options when increasing some factors:
An increase in … … results in ….
We consider a European option on a non-dividend stock whose current spot price is 𝑆 and at the end of
time period 𝛥𝑡, the stock’s price will either go up to 𝑆𝑢 or go down to 𝑆𝑑 . The option expires at the end of
the same time period. Let the pay-off of the option be 𝑌𝑢 and 𝑌𝑑 when the price of the stock goes up and
down in respect. Furthermore, let 𝑟 be the interest rate (which is constant for any time period).
𝒆𝒓∙𝚫𝐭 −𝒅
• The risk-neutral probability 𝒒 is: 𝒒= 𝒖−𝒅
• “Risk-neutral valuation” says that the current price 𝑥 of the option is:
𝒙 = 𝒆−𝒓∙𝚫𝐭 (𝒒𝒀𝒖 + (𝟏 − 𝒒)𝒀𝒅 )
ESCP Business School - MF31: Mathematical Finance --- Page 5 of 8
Chapter 6: Statistics with Brownian motion and the Black-Scholes pricing formulas
• Consider the price of a stock 𝑆, whose current price is 𝑆0 , its expected annual return is 𝜇, and its
annual price volatility (i.e. standard deviation) is 𝜎. Furthermore, suppose that the stock price
follows a Geometric Brownian motion (GBM): 𝒅𝑺 = 𝝁 𝑺 𝒅𝒕 + 𝛔 𝐒 𝐝𝐁 .
Then, for any time 𝑇 in the future, the price of the stock at time 𝑇 satisfies:
𝜎2
𝑙𝑛(𝑆𝑇 )~𝑁 ( 𝑙𝑛(𝑆0 ) + (𝜇 − )Τ , 𝜎 2 Τ)
2
• Similarly, we could also construct 95% and 99% Confidence Intervals for 𝑙𝑛(𝑆𝑇 ). However, in such a
case we have to replace 1.645 by another number. Specifically, in the case of 95% and 99%
Confidence Intervals for 𝑙𝑛(𝑆𝑇 ), the aforementioned number changes to 1.96 and 2.58 in respect.
𝜗𝑓 𝜗𝑓 1 𝜗2𝑓
• The Black-Scholes differential equation (BSDE) is: + 𝑟𝑆 𝜗𝑆 + 2 𝜎 2 𝑆 2 𝜗𝑆2 = 𝑟𝑓 ,
𝜗𝑡
where: 𝑆 is the price of the underlying stock, 𝜎 is its volatility, 𝑡 is time, 𝑟 is the risk-free interest.
Furthermore, 𝑓 is a function: it is equal to the value at time 𝑡 of a financial derivative on stock 𝑆.
Consider a European option at time 𝑡 on a stock with spot price 𝑆; the strike price of the option is 𝐾 and
the option expires at time 𝑇. Furthermore, 𝜎 is the annual volatility of the stock, and 𝑟 is the 𝑇-years
interest rate. We have:
𝑺 𝝈𝟐
𝒍𝒏 (𝑲) + (𝒓 + 𝟐 ) (𝑻 − 𝒕)
𝒅𝟏 =
𝝈√𝑻 − 𝒕
𝒅𝟐 = 𝒅𝟏 − 𝝈√𝚻 − 𝒕
Then, the price of the call option 𝑐 and the price of the put option 𝑝, at time point 𝑡 are:
Consider portfolio Π𝑤 . We have 𝑋 units of money it total and we want to invest a portion of it, namely 𝑤,
in the risk-free investment 𝐵 (e.g. bank deposit), and the rest of the money, 𝑋 − 𝑤, in the market portfolio.
Let: 𝑟𝐵 be the expected return of the risk-free investment, 𝑟𝑀 be the expected return of the market
portfolio 𝑀, and 𝜎𝑀 be the standard deviation of the expected return of the market portfolio 𝑀. Then:
𝒘𝒓𝑩 + (𝑿 − 𝒘)𝒓𝑴 .
|𝑿 − 𝒘| 𝝈𝑴 .
The following are true for constants 𝑎 and 𝑏 and random variables 𝑌 and Z (where COV(Y, Z) is their
covariance, and 𝑉(𝑌) and 𝑉(𝑍) are the variances of variables Y and Z in respect):
• 𝑉(𝑎𝑌) = 𝑎2 𝑉(𝑌)
Suppose that 𝑟 is the expected return of an efficient investment and 𝜎 is the investment’s standard
deviation of return; 𝑟𝐵 is the expected return of a risk-free investment; rM is the expected return of the
market portfolio and 𝜎𝑀 is the market portfolio’s standard deviation; rA is the expected return of a
portfolio A and 𝜎A is the portfolio’s standard deviation of return, whereas 𝜌(A, M) is the correlation
between portfolio and the market portfolio; β is the beta coefficient. Then:
𝝆(𝐀, 𝐌) ∙ 𝝈𝐀
𝜷=
𝝈𝑴
𝐫𝐀 = 𝐫𝐁 + (𝐫𝐌 − 𝐫𝐁 )𝛃
• The “unique risk of 𝐴” (or “idiosyncratic risk”) is defined as: √(𝝈𝑨 )𝟐 − 𝜷𝟐 (𝝈𝑴 )𝟐 .
𝐂𝐎𝐕(𝐘,𝐙)
• The correlation of two random variables Y and Z is: 𝝆(𝐘, 𝐙) = , where COV(Y, Z) is
√𝑽(𝒀)∙𝑽(𝒁)
their covariance, and 𝑉(𝑌) and 𝑉(𝑍) are the variances of variables Y and Z in respect
Table for the calculation of Standard Normal probabilities (Z~N(0,1); 1 of 2; negative z-scores).
Example: Φ(-3.14)=0.0008
z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
-3.4 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002
-3.3 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0003
-3.2 0.0007 0.0007 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005
-3.1 0.0010 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0007 0.0007
-3.0 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.0012 0.0012 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0010 0.0010
-2.9 0.0019 0.0018 0.0018 0.0017 0.0016 0.0016 0.0015 0.0015 0.0014 0.0014
-2.8 0.0026 0.0025 0.0024 0.0023 0.0023 0.0022 0.0021 0.0021 0.0020 0.0019
-2.7 0.0035 0.0034 0.0033 0.0032 0.0031 0.0030 0.0029 0.0028 0.0027 0.0026
-2.6 0.0047 0.0045 0.0044 0.0043 0.0041 0.0040 0.0039 0.0038 0.0037 0.0036
-2.5 0.0062 0.0060 0.0059 0.0057 0.0055 0.0054 0.0052 0.0051 0.0049 0.0048
-2.4 0.0082 0.0080 0.0078 0.0075 0.0073 0.0071 0.0069 0.0068 0.0066 0.0064
-2.3 0.0107 0.0104 0.0102 0.0099 0.0096 0.0094 0.0091 0.0089 0.0087 0.0084
-2.2 0.0139 0.0136 0.0132 0.0129 0.0125 0.0122 0.0119 0.0116 0.0113 0.0110
-2.1 0.0179 0.0174 0.0170 0.0166 0.0162 0.0158 0.0154 0.0150 0.0146 0.0143
-2.0 0.0228 0.0222 0.0217 0.0212 0.0207 0.0202 0.0197 0.0192 0.0188 0.0183
-1.9 0.0287 0.0281 0.0274 0.0268 0.0262 0.0256 0.0250 0.0244 0.0239 0.0233
-1.8 0.0359 0.0351 0.0344 0.0336 0.0329 0.0322 0.0314 0.0307 0.0301 0.0294
-1.7 0.0446 0.0436 0.0427 0.0418 0.0409 0.0401 0.0392 0.0384 0.0375 0.0367
-1.6 0.0548 0.0537 0.0526 0.0516 0.0505 0.0495 0.0485 0.0475 0.0465 0.0455
-1.5 0.0668 0.0655 0.0643 0.0630 0.0618 0.0606 0.0594 0.0582 0.0571 0.0559
-1.4 0.0808 0.0793 0.0778 0.0764 0.0749 0.0735 0.0721 0.0708 0.0694 0.0681
-1.3 0.0968 0.0951 0.0934 0.0918 0.0901 0.0885 0.0869 0.0853 0.0838 0.0823
-1.2 0.1151 0.1131 0.1112 0.1093 0.1075 0.1056 0.1038 0.1020 0.1003 0.0985
-1.1 0.1357 0.1335 0.1314 0.1292 0.1271 0.1251 0.1230 0.1210 0.1190 0.1170
-1.0 0.1587 0.1562 0.1539 0.1515 0.1492 0.1469 0.1446 0.1423 0.1401 0.1379
-0.9 0.1841 0.1814 0.1788 0.1762 0.1736 0.1711 0.1685 0.1660 0.1635 0.1611
-0.8 0.2119 0.2090 0.2061 0.2033 0.2005 0.1977 0.1949 0.1922 0.1894 0.1867
-0.7 0.2420 0.2389 0.2358 0.2327 0.2296 0.2266 0.2236 0.2206 0.2177 0.2148
-0.6 0.2743 0.2709 0.2676 0.2643 0.2611 0.2578 0.2546 0.2514 0.2483 0.2451
-0.5 0.3085 0.3050 0.3015 0.2981 0.2946 0.2912 0.2877 0.2843 0.2810 0.2776
-0.4 0.3446 0.3409 0.3372 0.3336 0.3300 0.3264 0.3228 0.3192 0.3156 0.3121
-0.3 0.3821 0.3783 0.3745 0.3707 0.3669 0.3632 0.3594 0.3557 0.3520 0.3483
-0.2 0.4207 0.4168 0.4129 0.4090 0.4052 0.4013 0.3974 0.3936 0.3897 0.3859
-0.1 0.4602 0.4562 0.4522 0.4483 0.4443 0.4404 0.4364 0.4325 0.4286 0.4247
-0.0 0.5000 0.4960 0.4920 0.4880 0.4840 0.4801 0.4761 0.4721 0.4681 0.4641
ESCP Business School - MF31: Mathematical Finance --- Page 8 of 8
Table for the calculation of Standard Normal probabilities (Z~N(0,1); 2 of 2; positive z-scores).
Example: Φ(0.31)=0.6217
z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 0.5000 0.5040 0.5080 0.5120 0.5160 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.5359
0.1 0.5398 0.5438 0.5478 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5636 0.5675 0.5714 0.5753
0.2 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141
0.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517
0.4 0.6554 0.6591 0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879
0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224
0.6 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549
0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852
0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133
0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389
1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621
1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830
1.2 0.8849 0.8869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015
1.3 0.9032 0.9049 0.9066 0.9082 0.9099 0.9115 0.9131 0.9147 0.9162 0.9177
1.4 0.9192 0.9207 0.9222 0.9236 0.9251 0.9265 0.9279 0.9292 0.9306 0.9319
1.5 0.9332 0.9345 0.9357 0.9370 0.9382 0.9394 0.9406 0.9418 0.9429 0.9441
1.6 0.9452 0.9463 0.9474 0.9484 0.9495 0.9505 0.9515 0.9525 0.9535 0.9545
1.7 0.9554 0.9564 0.9573 0.9582 0.9591 0.9599 0.9608 0.9616 0.9625 0.9633
1.8 0.9641 0.9649 0.9656 0.9664 0.9671 0.9678 0.9686 0.9693 0.9699 0.9706
1.9 0.9713 0.9719 0.9726 0.9732 0.9738 0.9744 0.9750 0.9756 0.9761 0.9767
2.0 0.9772 0.9778 0.9783 0.9788 0.9793 0.9798 0.9803 0.9808 0.9812 0.9817
2.1 0.9821 0.9826 0.9830 0.9834 0.9838 0.9842 0.9846 0.9850 0.9854 0.9857
2.2 0.9861 0.9864 0.9868 0.9871 0.9875 0.9878 0.9881 0.9884 0.9887 0.9890
2.3 0.9893 0.9896 0.9898 0.9901 0.9904 0.9906 0.9909 0.9911 0.9913 0.9916
2.4 0.9918 0.9920 0.9922 0.9925 0.9927 0.9929 0.9931 0.9932 0.9934 0.9936
2.5 0.9938 0.9940 0.9941 0.9943 0.9945 0.9946 0.9948 0.9949 0.9951 0.9952
2.6 0.9953 0.9955 0.9956 0.9957 0.9959 0.9960 0.9961 0.9962 0.9963 0.9964
2.7 0.9965 0.9966 0.9967 0.9968 0.9969 0.9970 0.9971 0.9972 0.9973 0.9974
2.8 0.9974 0.9975 0.9976 0.9977 0.9977 0.9978 0.9979 0.9979 0.9980 0.9981
2.9 0.9981 0.9982 0.9982 0.9983 0.9984 0.9984 0.9985 0.9985 0.9986 0.9986
3.0 0.9987 0.9987 0.9987 0.9988 0.9988 0.9989 0.9989 0.9989 0.9990 0.9990
3.1 0.9990 0.9991 0.9991 0.9991 0.9992 0.9992 0.9992 0.9992 0.9993 0.9993
3.2 0.9993 0.9993 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9995 0.9995 0.9995
3.3 0.9995 0.9995 0.9995 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9997
3.4 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9998