LESSON 9: PROBABILITY

PROBABILITY
Probability is the numerical measure of the chance.
For example, a farmer would like to know the likelihood of his cow giving birth to a heifer if for
the last six births it has given birth to five bulls and one heifer.
Solution: Out of the six births, the cow has given birth to one heifer and five bulls. Assuming the
1
same trend the probability of giving birth to a heifer 6 and the probability of giving birth to a bull
5
is .
6

Experimental Probability
This is probability that has been determined from experiences.
For example; A fair coin was tossed 100 times and the number of heads and tails showing up
were recorded as 54 and 46 respectively. A student wants to determine the probability of
obtaining a head with this coin when tossed one more time.
Out of the 100 tosses, 54 were heads. The likelihood of obtaining a head this one more time
54 27
denoted by P(Head) or P(H)is 100 = 50.

The possible result of a trial is called an outcome.

Generally experimental probability of a result is given by
𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
.
𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠
𝐸𝑥𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒
A student had a fair die with faces marked 1 to 6. She threw the die 50 times and each time she
recorded the number on the to face. The result of her experiment is shown in the table below.
Face 1 2 3 4 5 6
Number of times a 11 6 7 9 9 8
face has shown up
What is the experimental probability of getting:
(a) 1 (b) 4 (c) 6

Solution
𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
(a) P(Event)= 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠

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 11
𝑃(1) =
50
9
(b) 𝑃(4) = 50
8 4
(c) 𝑃(6) = 50 = 25

Example
From the past records, out of the ten matches a school football team has played, it has won
seven. How many possible games might the school win in thirty matches?

Solution
𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑒𝑎𝑚 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑤𝑜𝑛 7
P(Winning in one match)= = 10.
𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑠 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑦𝑒𝑑

The number of possible wins in thirty matches = P(Winning in one match) × The number of
matches the team will participate.
7
= 10 × 30 = 21 𝑚𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑠

Exercise
1. Statistics have shown that 38 out of every 1000 new bulbs of a certain type burn out within
6 months. What is the probability of buying a bulb which will not burn out in 6 months’
time?
2. After tossing a coin 10 times, it was found that the probability of getting a head is 0.4.
What is the probability of getting a tail in this experiment?
3. The number of days with rainfall at a station was recorded for the whole year in the table
below.

Month J F M A M J J A S O N D
No. of 3 4 8 18 9 6 4 5 9 12 6 4
days with
rainfall
Use the information to find:
(a) The probability that a day in October has some rain
(b) The number of months for which the probability of a day with rain is less than 0.3.
(c) The probability that a day in the year will have rain.
4. Throw two dice, whose faces are numbered 1 to 6, fifty times. Record the sum of the
numbers that appear on their tops each time. Find the experimental probability that the
sum is:
(a) 7 (b) 1 (c) 9 (d) 13
5. Toss a coin 100 times and record the number of times a head shows up. Use the result of
your experiment to determine the probability of a head showing up in a toss.

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Remark
The following observations have been made:
(i) The greater the probability the more the event is likely to take place.
(ii) The probability of an event A which is certain to occur is 1, that is, P(A)=1.
(iii) The probability of an event A which is impossible to occur is 0, that is, P(A)=0.
(iv) The probability of an event A lies between 0 and 1 (inclusive), that is, for any event A,
0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1. This known as the range of probability measure.
(v) If P(A) is the probability of an event A happening and P(A’) is the probability of an
event A not happening, then P(A’) = 1 – P(A) and P(A) + P(A’)=1.
Probabilities are expressed as fractions, decimals or percentages.

Probability Space is the list of all possible outcomes. It is also known as possibility space or
sample space.
For example, the only possible outcomes from tossing a coin once is the occurrence of a head or
a tail. These outcomes can be listed as H or T which is the sample space.

Theoretical Probability is the probability of an event obtained through calculation without

necessarily using any past record or doing any experiment.
For example; the probability space from tossing two coins at once is HH, TT, TH and HT.

Example
(i) If a fair die is tossed once, what is the probability of a 3 showing up?

Since the die has six faces and each face is equally likely to come up,
The probability space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒂 𝟑 𝒔𝒉𝒐𝒘 𝒖𝒑
The P(3)=
𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔

1
=
6
This is because a 3 appears only once out of the six possible outcomes
(ii) What is the probability of getting an odd number when a fair dice is tossed once?
Out of the six possible outcomes, there are three odd numbers: 1, 3 and 5.
𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒅𝒅 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓𝒔
Therefore, P(odd) =
𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔
3 1
=6=2
(iii) What is the probability of getting a prime number on a single toss of a fair die?
There are three prime numbers: 2, 3, and 5.

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 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒓𝒊𝒎𝒆 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓𝒔
Therefore, P(prime) =
𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔
3 1
= =
6 2

Example
A basket contains red balls, 4 green balls and 3 blue balls. If a ball is picked at random from the
basket, find:
(i) The probability of picking a blue ball.
(ii) The probability of not picking a red ball

Solution
(i) The total number of balls is 12.

The number of blue balls is 3.

𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒃𝒍𝒖𝒆 𝒃𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒔
Thus, P(a blue ball)=
𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒃𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒔
3 1
= 12 = 4
(ii) The number of balls which are not red is the sum of green and blue balls which yields
7.
𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒃𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒔 𝒘𝒉𝒊𝒄𝒉 𝒂𝒓𝒆 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝒓𝒆𝒅
Therefore, P(not a red ball) =
𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒃𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒔
7
=
12

Example
A bag contains six blue ball and some black ones. If a ball is picked at random, the probability
that it is blue is 0.25. Find the number of black balls.

Solution
Let the number of balls be x
6
The probability that a blue ball is picked at random is .
𝑥
6
Thus, = 0.25
𝑥

𝑥 = 24. The total number of balls is 24.

Therefore, the number of black balls is 24 − 6 = 18.

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Example
Two dice are tossed together. What is the probability that the sum of the upper faces will be:
(a) 8?
(b) 11?

Solution
Number on die one

+ 1 2 3 4 5 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Number of die two
2 3 4 5 6 7 8

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

From the table there are 36 equally likely outcomes.

5
(a) 𝑃(8) = 36
2
(b) 𝑃(11) = 36

Exercise
1. A letter is selected at random from the English alphabet. Find the probability that it is a
vowel.
2. What is the probability of getting a number that is not prime with a single toss of a die?
3. Three coins are tossed together.
a. List the eight possible outcomes
b. Find the probability of getting;
(i) 3 heads
(ii) One tail
4. What is the probability that an integer chosen at random from the integers 1 to 20
(inclusive) is divisible by 3?
5. The letters of the word KIRIRI are written on identical cards and shuffled. If a card is
picked at random from the pack, find the probability that:

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 a. the card picked has a R.
b. the card picked has a vowel.
𝟐
6. An urn contains green and red marbles. The probability of picking a green marble is 𝟕.
a. What is the probability of picking a red marble?
b. If there are 21 re marbles, what is the total number of marbles in the urn?
7. A bag contains 4 blue balls and 5 red balls. If a ball is picked at random from the bag,
find the probability that it is;
a. a blue ball.
b. a red ball.
8. A card is drawn from a well shuffled ordinary pack of cards. Find the probability of
drawing:
a. a diamond
b. a red card
c. a queen
d. a 3 of hearts

Combined Events
So far, we have dealt with simple cases where an event can happen of fail to happen. In this
section we shall consider the probability of occurrence of two or more events.

Mutually exclusive events

These are events in which occurrence of one excludes the occurrence of the other.
For example, when a coin is tossed once, the result can either be a tail or a head. If a tail occurs,
a head cannot occur and vice versa.

Addition Law of Probability (Addition theorem)

It states that if two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then 𝑃(𝐴 𝒐𝒓 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵).

Example
A die is thrown once. Find the probability of getting:
a. an even number or a 3
b. 3 or less
c. 4 or more
d. at most 2
e. not more than 4
f. at least 5

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 Solution
When a die is tossed, getting a one, a two, a three, a four, a five, a six are mutually exclusive
events.
a. Probability of getting an even number,
𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑠 3 1
P(an even number)= 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑠 = =2
6
1
𝑃(3) = 6.

1 1 4 2
Therefore, from the addition theorem, 𝑃(𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑟 𝑎 3) = 2 + 6 = 6 = 3.

b. 3 or less means either you can get a 3 or a 2 or a 1.

1 1 1 3 1
𝑃(3 𝑜𝑟 𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑠) = 𝑃(3 𝑜𝑟 2 𝑜𝑟 1) = + + = =
6 6 6 6 2
c. 4 or more means you can get either a 4 or a 5 or a six.
1 1 1 3 1
(4 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒) = 𝑃(4 𝑜𝑟 5 𝑜𝑟 6) = + + = =
6 6 6 6 2
d. At most 2 means you can get either a 1 or a 2.
1 1 2 1
𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑜𝑠𝑡 2) = 𝑃(1 𝑜𝑟 2 ) = + = =
6 6 6 3
e. Not more than 4 means you can’t get a face which is labeled with a number greater than
4. Thus, you can get a face numbered 1 or a 2 or a 3 or a 4.
1 1 1 1 4 2
𝑃(𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 4) = 𝑃(4 𝑜𝑟 3 𝑜𝑟 2 𝑜𝑟 1) = 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 = 6 = 3.
f. 𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 5) = 𝑃(5 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒)
= (5 𝑜𝑟 6)
1 1 1
= 6 + 6 = 3.

Exercise
Two dice are thrown together. Find the probability of getting a sum:
a. of 10.
b. of at least a 6.
c. of at most 7.
d. not more than 3.
e. of 8 or 3
f. greater than 9.
g. of 3 or less
h. that is even.

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 Independent Events
Two events A and B are said to be independent if the occurrence of A does not influence the
occurrence of B, and vice versa.
For example, suppose a coin and a die are thrown together. Getting a face numbered 5 will
not affect the showing up of a head in the coin.
If A and B are two independent events, the probability of them occurring together is the
product of their individual probabilities, that is, 𝑃(𝐴 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵).
This is the multiplication law of probability known as the multiplication theorem.

Example
A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability of getting a head in both tosses?

Solution
The outcome of the second toss is independent from the first outcome.
Therefore:
𝑃(𝐻 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐻) = 𝑃(𝐻) × 𝑃(𝐻)
1 1 1
=2×2= 4

Example
Three different machines in a factory have different probabilities of breaking down during a
shift as shown below.
Machine Probability of breaking
A 4
15
B 3
10
C 2
11
Find:
a. the probability that all machines will break down during one shift.
b. The probability that none of the machines will break down in a particular shift.

Solution
a. P(A and B and C breaking) = P(A breaking) × P(B breaking)× P(C breaking)

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 4 3 2
= × ×
15 10 11
24
= 1650
4
=
275
b. P(none of machines A, B and C breaks down) = P(A and B and C do not break down)
= P(A not breaking) × P(not breaking)× P(C not
breaking).

P(A does not break down)= 1 – P(A breaks down)

4 11
= 1 − 15 = 15
7
Similarly, P(B does not break down) = 10
9
and P(C does not break down)= 11.
11 7 9 21
Therefore, P(A not breaking) × P(not breaking)× P(C not breaking) = 15 × 10 × 11 = 50.

Example
A bag contains 8 black balls and 5 white balls. If two balls are drawn at random from the bag,
one at a time, find the probability of drawing a black ball and a white ball:
a. without replacement
b. with replacement

Solution
There are only two ways we can get a black and a white ball, either by drawing a white then a
black, or drawing a black then white. We need to find the two probabilities;
a. P(White followed by Black) = P(White and Black)

= 𝑃(𝑊) × 𝑃(𝐵)
8 5
= ×
13 12
10
=
39
P(Black followed by White) = P(Black and White)
= 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝑊)
5 8 10
= × =
13 12 39
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 Since the two events are mutually exclusive,
P(W followed by B) or P(B followed by W)= P(W followed by B) + P(B followed by W)
= P(W and B)+ P(B and W)
10 10
= +
39 39
20
=
39
b. Since we are replacing, the number of balls remains 13.
P(White followed by Black) = P(White and Black)
= 𝑃(𝑊) × 𝑃(𝐵)
8 5
= ×
13 13
40
=
169
P(Black followed by White) = P(Black and White)
= 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝑊)
5 8
= ×
13 13
40
=
169
Thus, P(W followed by B) or P(B followed by W)= P(W followed by B) + P(B
followed by W)
= P(W and B)+ P(B and W)
40 40
= +
169 169
80
=
169

Example
Two marbles are drawn in turn from a pack containing 3 red marbles, 6 white marbles, 7 black
marbles and 9 green marbles.
(a) If this is done with replacement, determine the probability of drawing:
(i) two white marbles
(ii) a black then a green marble
(iii) no red marble.

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 Solution
6
a. i) Probability of drawing a red marble = 25
Since there is replacement, the white marble is replaced and probability of drawing a
6
white marble on the second drawn is .
25
Therefore, the probability of drawing a white marble on the first draw and a white marble
6 6 36
on the second draw is 25 × 25 = 125

7
ii)The probability of drawing a black marble is and the probability of drawing a green
25
9
marble is 25.
7 9 63
Therefore, the probability of drawing a black and green marble is 25 × 25 = 125

𝟏 𝟑 𝟑
1. The probability that Mary, Ann and Clare passing an examination are , and
𝟑 𝟓 𝟒
respectively. Find the probability that:
a. either Mary and Ann will pass.
b. both Ann and Clare will pass.
c. all the three will fail.

2. An integer is picked at random from the integers 1 to 20(inclusive). Find the probability
that:
a. it is divisible by 4.
b. it is not divisible by 4.
c. it is divisible by 2 or 4 or both.
d. it is divisible by 2 or 3.

3. A committee of three people is to be chosen at random from three men and two women.
Find the probability that:
a. all the three people chosen are men.
b. one of the three people chosen is a woman

4. In a doctor’s waiting room there are four men and three women. If all the patients have an
equal chance of seeing the doctor, find the probability that:
a. the first three people called in to see the doctor will be a woman, man and woman in
that order.
b. the first three people called in to see the doctor will be men.

5. If a certain unfair coin is tossed, the probability of obtaining a tail is 0.25. Find:

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 a. the probability of obtaining a head when the coin is tossed once.

the probability of obtaining at least one tail when the coin is tossed twice
6. A bag contains 3 black balls and 5 white balls. Paul picks a ball at random from the bag
and replaces it back in the bag. He mixes the balls in the bag and then picks another ball
at random from the bag.
a) Construct a probability tree of the problem.
b) Calculate the probability that Paul picks:
i) two black balls
ii) a black ball in his second draw (9 marks)
a. A bag contains 6 blue and 4 red pegs, two pegs are drawn out randomly without
replacement. Find the probability of finding:
i. Same color. (3 Marks)
ii. One red and two blue (3 Marks)

PROBABILITY more questions

a) Jane,Joyce and Janet are practicing archery. The probability of Jane hitting
2 1
the target is 5, that of Joyce hitting the target is 4 and that of Janet hitting
3
the target is 7.Find the probability that in one attempt:
i. only one hits the target. (3marks)
ii. all three hit the target. (1mark)
iii. none of them hits the target. (1mark)
iv. two hit the target. (2marks)
v. at least one hits the target. (2arks)

2
b) In a science class3of the class are boys and the rest are girls. 80% of the boys and 90% of
the girls are right-handed. The probability that the right-handed student will break a test
1 3
tube in any session is10and that for the left-handed student is10,regardless of whether boy
or girl. Draw a tree diagram to represent this information. (2 Marks)

Using the tree diagram drawn, find the probability that:

(i) A student chosen at random from the class is left-handed (2 Marks)
(ii) A test tube is broken by a left-handed student. (2 Marks)
(iii) A test tube is broken by a right-handed student. (2 Marks)
(iv) A test tube is not broken in any session (3 Marks)
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 c) Explain three types of Events as used in probability. (3 marks)

d) From five doctors, 4 teachers and 3 lawyers, a committee of 6 is to be chosen so as

i. There are no restrictions on who can be in the committee. (2 Marks)
ii. 2 member of the committee are lawyers ` (3 marks)
iii. At least one member is a teacher (4 marks)

e) A piece of equipment will function only when all the three components A,B and C are
working. The probability of failing during one year is 0.015, that of B failing is 0.05 and
that of C failing is 0.10.
ii. Draw a probability tree for the above problem. (3 Marks)
iii. What is the probability that the equipment will fail before the end of the year?

f) A bag contains 5 green balls and 7 red balls, 2 balls are drawn at random. What is the

probability that one is green and the other is red? (5marks)

g) A bag containing 3 white and 4 black balls. A man picks 2 at random with replacement. What is
the probability of picking 2 black balls? (4 Marks)

h) A bag contains 3 red balls, 5 blue ball and 2 white balls. Two balls are picked at random
with replacement. Calculate the probability that.
(i) Both balls are the same colour.
(ii) No red ball is picked. (7 marks)
i) A box contains 6 red balls and 5 blues balls. A person draws three balls at random
without replacement, determine the probability that the balls drawn are:
i. No red (4 Marks)
ii. At least two reds (4 Marks)

QUESTION THREE (20 MARKS)

a. The scores in an aptitude test are normally distributed with a mean of 100 and with
standard deviation of 15.
i. What proportion of students is likely to score between 85 and 115? (4 Marks)
ii. The probability that a student will score above 130. (3 Marks)
iii. What is the minimum score attained by the top 15% of the students. (5 Marks)

QUESTION FOUR (20 MARKS)

a. In a consignment of articles, 10 percent are defective. If a sample of 6 articles is taken at

random from this consignment, find the probability that it will contain:
i. No defective articles. (3 Marks)

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 ii. Three or more defective articles. (5 Marks)

b. A bag contains 4 white beads and 3 black beads. The experiment of drawing a bead from
the bag is repeated two times, without replacement. Find the probability that:
i. Both beads are of same colour (5 Marks)
ii. One white and one black (3 Marks)
c. A bag contains 6 blue and 4 red pegs, two pegs are drawn out randomly without
replacement. Find the probability of finding:
iv. Same colour. (3 Marks)
v. One red and two blue (3 Marks

d. A patient has a chance of 0.6 of finding a doctor in his surgery on a random visit. On the
next three visits what is the probability that the patient finds the doctor:
i. in exactly one visits (3 marks)
ii. in all visits (2 Marks)
iii. on at least two visits (5 marks)
e. A bag contains 4 white and 3blue balls. The balls are identical in all aspect except the color.
Three balls were picked at random one at a time. Determine the probability that 3 balls picked
were blue. (4marks)

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