MMSS-04 Rev.

1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 22

Severe Tropical Storm KRISTINE (TRAMI)
Issued at 8:00 PM, 24 October 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.

“KRISTINE” CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE LINGAYEN GULF.

Location of Center (7:00 PM)

The center of Severe Tropical Storm KRISTINE was estimated

based on all available data over the coastal waters of
Bacnotan, La Union (16.7°N, 120.1°E)

Intensity

Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center,

gustiness of up to 145 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa

Present Movement

Westward slowly
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 730 km
from the center
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
Center Position Intensity Movement
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW dir. and
Location Cat. speed (km/h)
(°N) (°E) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 17.3 118.9 180 km West Southwest of Sinait, Ilocos Sur 95 STS WNW 10
25 October 2024
24-Hour Forecast
180 km West Southwest of Sinait, Ilocos Sur
5:00 PM 17.6 116.9 95 STS W 20
(OUTSIDE PAR)
25 October 2024
36-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 17.6 114.7 610 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR) 100 STS W 20
26 October 2024
48-Hour Forecast
5:00 PM 17.4 112.8 815 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) 100 STS W 15
26 October 2024
60-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 17.1 111.2 980 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) 110 STS W 15
27 October 2024
72-Hour Forecast
5:00 PM 16.7 110.3 1,075 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) 110 STS WSW 10
27 October 2024
96-Hour Forecast
5:00 PM 16.1 110.9 1,010 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) 100 STS SE Slowly
28 October 2024
120-Hour Forecast
745 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
5:00 PM 16.4 113.4 95 STS E 10
(OUTSIDE PAR)
29 October 2024

Page 1 of 4

Prepared by: RPG Checked by: CFP

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
 MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 22

Severe Tropical Storm KRISTINE (TRAMI)
Issued at 8:00 PM, 24 October 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao

Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva
Vizcaya, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Ifugao, Mountain Province,
Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan,
Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga,
Bulacan, Metro Manila, the northern portion of Cavite

2 (Ternate, Maragondon, Naic, Tanza, City of General Trias,

Rosario, Cavite City, Noveleta, Kawit, Imus City, Bacoor City),
the northern portion of Rizal (Cainta, Taytay, Angono, San
- -

Wind threat:
Gale-force Mateo, Rodriguez, Tanay, City of Antipolo, Baras, Teresa,
Morong), and the northern portion of mainland Quezon
winds (General Nakar)
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

Aklan, Capiz, Antique including Caluya

Batanes, the rest of Rizal, the rest of Cavite, Batangas,
Islands, Iloilo, Bantayan Islands, the
Laguna, the rest of Quezon, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental
western portion of Northern Samar
Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, the northern portion of
(Lope de Vega, Rosario, Biri, San Isidro,
mainland Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Araceli, San Vicente,
1 Dumaran, Roxas) including Calamian, Cuyo, and, Kalayaan
Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes,
Capul, San Vicente, Victoria, Lavezares,
San Antonio, Mondragon, San Jose,
Catarman, San Roque, Allen, Bobon), the
-

Wind threat: Albay, Sorsogon, and Masbate including Ticao and Burias
northern portion of Samar (Calbayog
Strong Islands
City, Tagapul-An)
winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Refer to Weather Advisory No. 22 issued at 5:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “KRISTINE”.

Severe Winds

The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly
stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the
prevailing wind direction.

 Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted.
 Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted
 Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.

Due to the short-term wobbling in the motion of KRISTINE over Lingayen Gulf and the increasing size of the wind field of the severe
tropical storm, Metro Manila and portions of Cavite, Rizal, and mainland Quezon were reinstated under Wind Signal No. 2.

Page 2 of 4

Prepared by: RPG Checked by: CFP

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
 MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 22

Severe Tropical Storm KRISTINE (TRAMI)
Issued at 8:00 PM, 24 October 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.

OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of KRISTINE, the northeasterly windflow, and southwesterly windflow will also
bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):

 Today (24 October): The rest of the country outside Wind Signal areas.
 Tomorrow (25 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Northern Mindanao,
Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, SOCCSKSARGEN, and Davao Region.
Saturday (26 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, Zamboanga Norte, Siquijor, Bohol,
Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands.

Coastal Inundation

There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights of around 1.0 to 2.0 m above normal tide levels in
the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, and Zambales. For more
information, refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 11 issued at 8:00 PM today.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

A Gale Warning is hoisted over the seaboards of Luzon and the western and central seaboards of Visayas. For more
information, refer to Gale Warning No. 10 issued at 5:00 PM today.

24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook

 Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:
o Up to 7.0 m: The seaboards of Zambales and Pangasinan.
o Up to 6.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region, the seaboard of Cagayan Valley and Lubang Islands; the
western seaboards of Bataan and Batangas.
o Up to 5.5 m: The western seaboards of Occidental Mindoro and Calamian Islands.
o Up to 4.5 m: The western seaboards of northern Palawan including Kalayaan Islands; the seaboard of northern Aurora.
o Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek
shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
 Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
o Up to 4.0 m: The southern seaboard of Quezon, the remaining seaboard of MIMAROPA, the western and southern
seaboards of Negros Occidental and Negros Oriental.
o Up to 3.5 m: The remaining seaboard of Aurora, the seaboards of northern Aurora including Polillo Islands, Camarines
Norte, and Catanduanes; the northern and eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur.
o Up to 3.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Luzon and Visayas.
o Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under
these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
 Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
o Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboards of the country.
o Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while
venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.

Page 3 of 4

Prepared by: RPG Checked by: CFP

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
 MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 22

Severe Tropical Storm KRISTINE (TRAMI)
Issued at 8:00 PM, 24 October 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

 KRISTINE is forecast to move westward or west northwestward over the West Philippine Sea and exit the Philippine Area of
Responsibility (PAR) region tomorrow (25 October) afternoon.
 In the extended outlook, there is a developing forecast situation wherein KRISTINE will be looping over the West Philippine
Sea on Sunday and Monday and move eastward or east northwestward towards the general direction of the PAR region.
However, this scenario heavily depends on the behavior of the weather disturbance east of the PAR region which is
expected to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
 KRISTINE is forecast to re-intensify as it moves over the West Philippine Sea. While it is likely that the tropical cyclone will
remain a severe tropical storm in the next five days, the chance for it to be upgraded into a typhoon is not ruled out.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all
necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these
hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings,
thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 PM today.

DOST-PAGASA

Page 4 of 4

Prepared by: RPG Checked by: CFP

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines