CHAPTER 7.

TRIP GENERATION NPTEL May 3, 2007

Chapter 7

Trip generation

7.1 Overview
Trip generation is the first stage of the classical first generation aggregate demand models. The trip
generation aims at predicting the total number of trips generated and attracted to each zone of the study
area. In other words this stage answers the questions to “how many trips” originate at each zone, from the
data on household and socioeconomic attributes. In this section basic definitions, factors affecting trip
generation, and the two main modeling approaches; namely growth factor modeling and regression modeling
are discussed.

7.1.1 Types of trip

Some basic definitions are appropriate before we address the classification of trips in detail. We will attempt
to clarify the meaning of journey, home based trip, non home based trip, trip production, trip attraction and trip
generation.
Journey is an out way movement from a point of origin to a point of destination, where as the word “trip”
denotes an outward and return journey. If either origin or destination of a trip is the home of the trip maker
then such trips are called home based trips and the rest of the trips are called non home based trips. Trip
production is defined as all the trips of home based or as the origin of the non home based trips. See figure
7:1

Trips can be classified by trip purpose, trip time of the day, and by person type. Trip generation models
are found to be accurate if separate models are used based on trip purpose. The trips can be classified
based on the purpose of the journey as trips for work, trips for education, trips for shopping, trips for
recreation and
Production Attraction
Work
Production Attraction
Home Home

Productio
n

Attraction Shop
based trips
Work
 Production
Non−home
based
trips
Attraction

Figure 7:1: trip types

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CHAPTER 7. TRIP GENERATION NPTEL May 3, 2007

other trips. Among these the work and education trips are often referred as mandatory trips and the rest as
discretionary trips. All the above trips are normally home based trips and constitute about 80 to 85 percent of
trips. The rest of the trips namely non home based trips, being a small proportion are not normally treated
separately. The second way of classification is based on the time of the day when the trips are made. The
broad classification is into peak trips and off peak trips. The third way of classification is based on the type of
the individual who makes the trips. This is important since the travel behavior is highly influenced by the socio
economic attribute of the traveler and are normally categorized based on the income level, vehicle ownership
and house hold size.

7.1.2 Factors affecting trip generation

The main factors affecting personal trip production include income, vehicle ownership, house hold structure
and family size. In addition factors like value of land, residential density and accessibility are also considered
for modeling at zonal levels. The personal trip attraction, on the other hand, is influenced by factors such as
roofed space available for industrial, commercial and other services. At the zonal level zonal employment and
accessibility are also used. In trip generation modeling in addition to personal trips, freight trips are also of
interest. Although the latter comprises about 20 percent of trips, their contribution to the congestion is
significant. Freight trips are influenced by number of employees, number of sales and area of commercial
firms.

7.2 Growth factor modeling

Growth factor modes tries to predict the number of trips produced or attracted by a house hold or zone as a
linear function of explanatory variables. The models have the following basic equation:

Ti = fiti (7.1)

where Tiis the number of future trips in the zone and tiis the number of current trips in that zone and fiis a
growth factor. The growth factor fi depends on the explanatory variable such as population (P) of the zone ,
average house hold income (I) , average vehicle ownership (V). The simplest form of fiis represented as
follows

d d d
fi =P i × I i × V i
Pci × Ici × Vci(7.2)
where the subscript ” d” denotes the design year and the subscript ”c” denotes the current year.

Example

Given that a zone has 275 household with car and 275 household without car and the average trip
generation rates for each groups is respectively 5.0 and 2.5 trips per day. Assuming that in the future, all
household will have a car, find the growth factor and future trips from that zone, assuming that the population
and income remains constant.

Solution

Current trip rate ti = 275 × 2.5 + 275 × 5.0 = 2062.5 trips / day.
Growth factor Fi =Vdi
550
Vci=

275 = 2.0

Introduction to Transportation Engineering 7.2 Tom V. Mathew and K V Krishna Rao

CHAPTER 7. TRIP GENERATION NPTEL May 3, 2007

Therefore, no. of future trips Ti = Fiti = 2.0 × 2062.5 = 4125 trips / day.
The above example also shows the limitation of growth factor method. If we think intuitively, the trip rate
will remain same in the future.

Therefore the number of trips in the future will be 550 house holds × 5 trips per day = 2750 trips per day
.

It may be noted from the above example that the actual trips generated is much lower than the growth factor
method. Therefore growth factor models are normally used in the prediction of external trips where no other
methods are available. But for internal trips , regression methods are more suitable and will be discussed in
the following section.

7.3 Regression methods

The general form of a trip generation model is

Ti = f(x1, x2, x3, ....xi, ...xk) (7.3)

Where xi’s are prediction factor or explanatory variable. The most common form of trip generation model is a
linear function of the form
Ti = a0 + a1x1 + a2x2 + ...aixi... + akxk (7.4)

where ai’s are the coefficient of the regression equation and can be obtained by doing regression analysis.
The above equations are called multiple linear regression equation, and the solutions are tedious to obtain
manually. However for the purpose of illustration, an example with one variable is given.

Example

Let the trip rate of a zone is explained by the household size done from the field survey. It was found that the
household size are 1, 2, 3 and 4. The trip rates of the corresponding household is as shown in the table
below. Fit a linear equation relating trip rate and household size.

Household size(x)

1234

Trips 1 2 4 6
per 2 4 5 7
day(y) 2 3 3 4

Σy 5 9 12 17

Solution The linear equation will have the form y = bx + a where y is the trip rate, and x is the household size,
a and b are the coefficients. For a best fit, b is given by

b =nΣxy − ΣxΣy
nΣx2 − (Σx)2
a = y¯ − bx¯
Σx = 3 × 1 + 3 × 2 + 3 × 3 + 3 × 4 = 30
Σx2 = 3 × (12) + 3 × (22) + 3 × (32) + 3 × (42) = 90

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CHAPTER 7. TRIP GENERATION NPTEL May 3, 2007

Σy = 5 + 9 + 12 + 17 = 43
Σxy = 1 × 1 + 1 × 2 + 1 × 2
+2×2+2×4+2×3
+3×4+3×5+3×3
+4×6+4×7+4×4
 = 127
y¯ = 43/12 = 3.58
x¯ = 30/12 = 2.5

b =nΣxy − ΣxΣy
nΣx2 − (Σx)2

=((12 × 127) − (30 × 43))

((12 × 90) − (30)2)= 1.3
a = y¯ − bx¯ = 3.58 − 1.3 × 2.5 = +0.33
y¯ = 1.3x − 0.33

7.4 Summary
Trip generation forms the first step of four-stage travel modeling. It gives an idea about the total number of
trips generated to and attracted from different zones in the study area. Growth factor modeling and
regression methods can be used to predict the trips. They are discussed in detail in this chapter.

7.5 Problems
1. The trip rate (y) and the corresponding household sizes (x) from a sample are shown in table below.
Compute the trip rate if the average household size is 3.25 (Hint: use regression method).

Householdsize(x)
1234

Trips 1 3 45

per 3 458
day(y) 3578

Solution Fit the regression equation as below.

Σx = 3 × 1 + 3 × 2 + 3 × 3 + 3 × 4 = 30
Σx2 = 3 × (12) + 3 × (22) + 3 × (32) + 3 × (42) = 90
Σy = 7 + 12 + 16 + 21 = 56
Σxy = 1 × 1 + 1 × 3 + 1 × 3
+2×3+2×4+2×5
+3×4+3×5+3×7
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CHAPTER 7. TRIP GENERATION NPTEL May 3, 2007

+4×5+4×8+4×8
= 163
y¯ = 56/12 = 4.67
x¯ = 30/12 = 2.5

b =nΣxy − ΣxΣy
nΣx2 − (Σx)2

=((12 × 163) − (30 × 56))

((12 × 90) − (30)2)= 1.533
a = y¯ − bx¯ = 4.67 − 1.533 × 2.5 = 0.837
y = 0.837 + 1.533x

When average household size =3.25, number of trips becomes,

y = 0.837 + 1.533 × 3.25 = 5.819
Introduction to Transportation Engineering 7.5 Tom V. Mathew and K V Krishna Rao