AFM Marathon Notes
AFM Marathon Notes
Risk Management
1. Con dence Level
2. Level of Signi cance
3. Normal Probability Distribution
4. Mean
5. Standard Deviation
6. Z Table
7. Z Score
8. VAR
CA Final AFM Marathon Notes CA Mayank Kothari
Advanced Capital Budgeting
Basics
1. Net Present Value (NPV)
2. Probability
3. Dependent & Independent Cash Flows
4. Standard Deviation
5. Coef cient of Variation
6. Hillier’s Model (Double Discounting)
7. In ation
A. Nominal & Real Cash Flows
B. Nominal & Real Discount Rate
Risk Analysis
8. Risk Adjusted Discount Rate (RADR)
9. Certainty Equivalent Coef cient (CEA)
10. Sensitivity Analysis
11. Simulation Analysis
12. Scenario Analysis
13. Joint Probability
14. Decision Tree Analysis
Other Topics
15. Equated Annual Cost
16. Replacement Analysis
17. Optimum Replacement Cycle
18. Project IRR & Equity IRR
19. Adjusted NPV
Security Analysis
1. Moving Averages
A. Simple Moving Average (SMA)
B. Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
2. Ef cient Market Theory
A. Weak Form
B. Semi Strong Form
C. Strong Form
3. Methods of Evaluating Weak Form
A. Auto / Serial Correlation Test
B. Run Test
C. Filter Rule Test
1. Market Value
2. Earnings Capitalisation Method
3. Net Assets Value
4. Chop Shop Approach
5. Discounted Cash Flow Method
6. Perpetual Cash Flow Method
7. Enterprise Value
8. Economic Value Added
10 8 101
I
1 10 1 10
Year
1 Mt
2 Mt
3 Mt
4 Mt
5 Mt
MRC
FVF FVAF
2 101 8 10
year
1.1 1.1 Mt
1
2 Mt
3 Mt
4 Mt
5 Mt
MRC
Present Value 1 I 1
Common Value 5
50 5 55 50 5 45 50 5 10 5 50 250
30 35 30 25 30 6 30 150
40 45 40 35 40 8 40 200
60 65 60 55 60 12 60 300
10 15 10 5 10 2 10 50
CF Variance
Higher the risk of the project, Higher should be the discount rate & vice - versa.
UCF = Uncertain Cash Flows, CE = Certainty Equivalent Coef cient, CCF = Certain Cash Flows
Method - 1 Method - 2
Object : NPV = 0 Object : Impact on NPV (% 🔺 )
Find out what %🔺 in factor will Take xed % like 10%🔺 in Factor
result in NPV = 0 to nd out impact on NPV
(%🔺 in NPV)
Is called as
Most Sensitive Factor
Step 4 : Use the corresponding Variables Cash Flows, Life of Project etc.
PV
PVAF
EAC EAC EAC EAC EAC
CA Final AFM Marathon Notes CA Mayank Kothari
4. Security Analysis
Moving Averages
SMA EMA
Simple Moving Average Exponential Moving Average
V
Problem : It gives
equal weight to all
the prices
Solution : Method
which gives more
weight to current
prices as compared
to past prices.
Public Information
Private(Insider) Information
If r is closer to Zero =
Market is Weakly Ef cient
Dividend
Gordon’s Model D
MP =
ke
FCFE : It represents the cash ows available only to equity shareholders after
accounting for operating expenses, taxes, debt payments, and necessary reinvestments.
Sales 1000
Cost 600
Depreciation 100
Equity
EBIT 300 Debt Fixed Assets
Interest 50
EBT 250
Working Capital
Tax @40% 100
EAT 150
Add: Depreciation 100
Less: Capex 60
Less: 🔺 in Working Capital 30
Less: Debt Repayment 10
Add: New Debt Issued 20
FCFE 170
P0 = 50 S = 40 P1 = 48
N = 4 N 1= 1 N+N1 = 5
200 40 = 240
P0 - S 50-40 X 4 = 8
= 2
N + N1 5
P1 - S 48-40 X 4 = 8
= 2
N 4
MACD = Yr x Weight
PV Duration
Yr CF PVF PV PV x Yr
PV x Yr
MACD =
PV
PV PV x Yr
No Arbitrage Arbitrage
Opportunity Opportunity Exist
Sell Buy
Forward/ Futures Forward/ Futures
At Expiry At Expiry
Close all open positions Close all open positions
Buy Futures, Sell Spot, Repay Borrowings Sell Futures, Buy Spot, Redeem Investment
₹ % Rate % Yield
Applied on Face Value Applied on Market Price (S)
Or
Borrowings Investing
Long Short
Borrower Investor
A Situation
of Loss
How to solve this?
6 x 9 FRA
Long FRA
N x (RR - FR) x dtm
dy
Settlement =
1+ RR x dtm
dy
Short FRA
dy = days in a year.
Spot Yields
Year Yield
10%
1 One 10% S1
12% 12%
2 Two 12% S2
13% 13% 13%
3 Three 13% S3
14% 14% 14% 14%
4 Four 14% S4
Forward Yields
Year Yield
10%
1 First 10% F1
10% 12%
2 Second 12% F2
10% 12% 13%
3 Third 13% F3
10% 12% 13% 14%
4 Fourth 14% F4
12% 12%
10% F2
(1+S2) x (1+S2) = (1+S1) x (1+F2)
Bonds Price
2 IRF Underlying Asset
Interest Rates
4 1
Interest Rate α Bonds Price
Interest Rate Futures
IRF Seller
IRF Buyer
Cap 08
k = 8% 07
06
Year
1 2 3 4 5
Rate
10
Floor 09
k = 8% 08
Payoff
07
06
Year
1 2 3 4 5
A B
Floating Libor + 1% CD Libor + 3% 2%
1.5%
Bank 1 Bank 2
Fixed
Floating
I
A B
Pays Floating to Bank Pays Fixed to Bank
Lt 4.5
Receives Floating from B LTI Pays Floating to A Lt
Pays Fixed to B 3.25 Receives Fixed from A 5
F 42 25
075 Lt 3
0 71
11. Forex
Currency Arbitrage
10
rd 21 50
8
2
2 2
I B
B HighInvest
Lot Born Dism
PREIRD
CA Final AFM Marathon Notes CA Mayank Kothari
Money Market Hedge
Purpose : No cash ow from one country to
another on Due Date
HC Sell HC Buy
80 latch 48
@Due Date
G
@Due Date
Repay HC Borrowing Receive Investment
with Interest Proceeds with Interest
Before
. Due Date On Due Date After Due Date
(Early) (Late)
Delivery 6 1 7
Cancellation 3 2 8
Extension 5 4 9
1
Delivery on Due Date
This is straight forward contract , as you honour
the contract on due date.
2 3
Cancellation Cancellation
on Due Date before Due Date
Extension Extension
on Due Date before Due Date
Early
Delivery
a. Pro t on Original Contract xxx
b. Pro t/Loss on Early Delivery xxx
c. Pro t/Loss on Cancellation of Cover Contract xxx
d. Swap Loss/Pro t (a+b+c) xxx
e. Interest on net Out ow/ In ow xx
of Bank due to early delivery
Swap loss/pro t is calculated as the difference between two
new contracts entered into to cancel two old contracts.
NPV(₹)
NPV($)
Spot Rate
NPV(₹)
Bg = Bu[1+D/E(1-tax)]
MP = D1/Ke-g
1 Market Value
= Market Price x No. of Shares
Sales 100
Cost 60
EBITDA 40
Depreciation & Amortisation 5
EBIT 35
Interest 5
EBT 30
Tax @ 50% 15
EAT 15
No. Of Shares 3
EPS 5
PE 10
Market Price 50
No. Of Shares 3
Market Value 150
Promoters Holding @ 40% 60
Free Float Holding @ 60% 90
A B Acquisition
Acquirer Acquiree
Purchaser Vendor
Buyer Seller
Target
Cash Share
A T AT
Maximum Minimum
450-200 100
= 250
A T AT
Gain 25 125