Article

Topic: Internal displacement due to natural disasters : case

Submitted To:
Sanwal Hussain

Submitted By
Muhammad Afzaal
Raees Ahmad
Introduction:
Migration refers to the movement of people from one place to another. There are some reasons
for migration such as seeking better economic opportunities, to escape conflict or persecution
and a major reason is natural calamities such as floods and earthquakes and natural calamities. It
comes from climate change.
Likewise, natural disasters are always part of the human, shaping the deep conditions of
landscapes, communities and economies. Earthquakes and storms cause flooding and marine
forest fires, conditions that can wreak havoc, displace populations, and trigger mass migration. In
recent years, the frequency and severity of natural disasters has increased due to conditions such
as climate change, social change, ecology and degradation, which have increased the impact on
human mobility.
Similarly, if we talk about Pakistan, many natural disasters happened in Pakistan, for example,
if we talk about Balakot, there was an earthquake in 2005 which caused a lot of destruction.
Estimates put the number of victims at over 100,000. About 138,000 were injured and more than
$3.5 million were displaced, and many people whose homes were destroyed were displaced.
(The kashmir earthquake of October 2008,2005. Impacts in Pakistan, 28 Feb 2008)
Similarly, if we talk about floods, there are many examples of this in Pakistan. In 2022, Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province in Pakistan faced a devastating flood, impacting 17 districts and
around 4.35 million people directly. The disaster resulted in 306 human casualties, with men
comprising 49%, women 13%, and children 38% of the victims. Additionally, 369 individuals
were injured, and 21,328 livestock perished. The flood caused significant damage to
infrastructure, with 1,575 km of roads submerged, 107 bridges collapsed, and extensive losses in
agriculture, including rice, maize, fodder crops, vegetables, fruits, and agricultural land.The total
loss included 91,463 households, with 37,525 completely destroyed and 53,938 partially
damaged. Climate change is identified as a major factor behind such disasters, exacerbating their
frequency and intensity. (Detail Needs Assessment Flood Emergency-KP (25th sep 2022), 2022)
If we talk about Climate change so refers to long-term changes in temperature, precipitation
patterns, and other parts of Earth's climate. It is mainly driven by human activities, such as the
burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial processes, which release greenhouse gases
into the atmosphere. These gases trap heat, causing global warming and a range of impacts,
including sea level rise, extreme weather events, loss of biodiversity, and damage to ecosystems
and economies world Climate change is also an important issue for Pakistan. Talking about
Pakistan, floods, earthquakes etc. are happening in Pakistan due to climate change and many
people are affected and those affected people migrate from one place to another.
Climate-induced migration is a pressing issue in various regions of Pakistan. Over recent years,
erratic weather patterns, including torrential rains, flash floods, and landslides, have ravaged the
country. The 2015 heatwave claimed 1,200 lives and drove many to seek refuge elsewhere,
particularly in Karachi. Drought in 2016 led to decreased crop yields and food shortages,
prompting migrations for sustenance. Coastal communities near the Indus Delta face
displacement due to sea intrusion and floods. Agriculture, business, water, health, biodiversity,
and socioeconomic conditions in semi-arid regions are all adversely impacted by climate change,
driving farmers and others to migrate from rural to urban areas in search of livelihoods. (Nabeela
Farah, 2023)
Migration, exacerbated by natural disasters and climate change, is a growing concern in Pakistan.
Events like the 2005 Balakot earthquake and the 2022 KPK floods displaced thousands of
people. Climate-related disasters, such as heat waves and droughts, further drive migration.
Coastal areas face marine intrusion, while rural areas suffer agricultural losses, pushing people to
urban areas for livelihood. Climate change, caused by human activities, disrupts weather
patterns, affecting agriculture, water and health. In response, communities seek refuge elsewhere,
intensifying urbanization. Pakistan is grappling with its consequences, which highlight the urgent
need for mitigation and adaptation strategies to address climate-induced displacement and its
socio-economic impacts.

Literature Review:
Pakistan is among the countries most affected by climate change and natural disasters globally,
leading to significant impacts on the lives and livelihoods of its people. The nation has
experienced a series of devastating floods, droughts, and storms over the past few decades,
resulting in complex challenges for households, especially those residing in disaster-prone
regions. Hence, the aim of this research is to investigate the vulnerability status and resilience
practices of hazard-prone communities in Pakistan based on the available literature. A total of 17
relevant documents have been identified in this study. It asserts that household vulnerability is on
the rise in tandem with the escalating intensity of disasters. Frequent occurrences of flooding,
landslides, erosion, and crop damage are the primary drivers of household vulnerability. The
research outlines five key components of household vulnerability, examining various livelihood
vulnerability indicators among Pakistani households. Furthermore, it highlights that widespread
crop damage, water scarcity, soil degradation, and low socioeconomic conditions are the main
factors contributing to disaster vulnerability. The primary vulnerability components of residents
include exposure (such as longer summers, rapid urbanization in flood-prone areas, and
increased hailstorms), sensitivity, limited access to education, human casualties, disease
outbreaks, food insecurity, social conflicts, and inadequate adaptive capacity (including social
support networks, migration, limited emergency services, diverse income sources, and restricted
healthcare access). In order to address household vulnerability, the study also identifies four
essential aspects of resilience: social, economic, institutional, and physical resilience. These
findings will play a crucial role in enhancing the understanding of household vulnerability and
resilience dynamics, as well as in developing effective measurement and management strategies
based on established indicators.
Invalid source specified.
The impacts of climate change triggered events show association of climate and human and their
relationship with regards to impacts is also clearly deliberated.Having recognized the level of
climate change induced migration the UNFCCC organized 15th and 16th conferences
emphasizing on climate change and migration in 2009 and 2010, respectively. After the Paris
Agreement's recognition of 'climate migration' and 'climate migrants' IOM acknowledged the
existence of climate migrants. According to the latest assessment report of 2022 by
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change redaction show that the magnitude of climate
change induced migration and human displacements may increase during the 21st
century.Government should consider having a separate National Climate induced Migration
Policy for Pakistan. Invalid source specified.
Active flood plains experience floods with lesser intensities almost every year. Out of these
districts 24 were from KPK, 17 from Sindh, 12 belonged to Balochistan, 11 districts were from
Punjab and left over 14 districts belonged to AJ&K and GB. Out of these 78 floods affected
district of Pakistan, 29 districts were recognized as severely flood affected districts. UNICEF in
August 2010 prepared a report, entitled as, Pakistan Monsoon Floods, the work discusses that the
summer flood of 2010 was worst in the history of Pakistan as an estimated 3.2 million people
have been affected across the country. Federal Flood Commission, Islamabad, and Annual Flood
Reports 2011 and 2012 floods, by the Office of the Chief Engineering Advisor and Chairman,
Federal Flood Commission, Islamabad, these reports describe the mechanics of floods in
Pakistan and also mention that how females in Pakistan fought with roaring waters with in
during historic flooding Relief Camp Situation Asian Development Bank and World Bank, in
2010 published a DNA entitled as, “Damage and Needs Assessment” the purpose of this DNA
has mentioned that during July-August 2010 flood, 515 health facilities out of 9721 health
facilities all over the country were damaged or totally destroyed. One of the main social
problems caused by floods has been female's adjustment during floods especially at relief camps
where they have to stay around the clock. If we try to study the history of such cases during the
summer flood of 1973 around 947 pregnant women became the flood victims, during the flood of
1988, the pregnant women affected by flood waters were 1,125 and 133,000 women were
directly affected by the July-August flood 2010. Invalid source specified.
It is also suggested that women bear the more burden of natural disasters as compare to men and
having more capabilities of bitter pill to swallow.
A booklet issued by United Nations proves women acquire more affected by climate change as
compare men, especially, rural women undergo hard disparities in access of information and
decision making, which multiplies their obscurity.Invalid source specified.
There is a discussion how rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns are affecting
different regions, leading to increased extreme weather events and climate-induced migration.
There various forms of migration, such as permanent, temporary, and seasonal, driven by natural
disasters. It also touches on Pakistan's urbanization trends, the challenges migrants face, and the
significant contributions of the Pakistani diaspora to the economy. Additionally, it underscores
the predictions of increased migration due to climate change and the urgent need to address these
challenges.Invalid source specified.
The impact of natural disasters on human security, focusing on climate-induced migration in
Pakistan, particularly in the aftermath of the 2022 floods in RajanPur and Taunsa Sharif. The
study aims to understand the hazardous effects of climate change, migration, and human security
by analyzing factors such as water scarcity, damaged livelihoods, and extreme weather events. It
utilizes a mixed-method approach, combining qualitative analysis with surveys conducted in the
affected regions. The paper underscores the need for a comprehensive approach to safeguard
human security in Pakistan amid the challenges posed by climate change.Invalid source
specified.
Research Gap:
The research gap regarding migration due to natural disasters in Pakistan lies in the lack of
comprehensive studies focusing specifically on the patterns, drivers, and impacts of such
migration. While there is ample literature on the general impact of natural disasters in Pakistan,
including floods, earthquakes, and droughts, there is a limited understanding of how these events
specifically influence migration dynamics. Additionally, there is a need for longitudinal studies
that track the long-term effects of natural disasters on migration patterns, including displacement,
resettlement, and the socio-economic consequences for affected populations. Furthermore,
research often lacks a nuanced analysis of the differential impacts of natural disasters on various
demographic groups, such as women, children, and marginalized communities. Addressing these
gaps would provide valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners to develop more
effective strategies for disaster preparedness, response, and recovery, with a focus on protecting
and supporting affected migrant populations.

Theoretical framework
In this article, one of the pull and push factors of the Lee theory of migration will be applied. If
we talk about Lee's theory, it is based on pull and push factor. As for push factors, push factors
are those that compel people to migrate from one place to another. For example Climate Change,
Conflict, Poverty and Bad Living Standard etc. Similarly, if we talk about the pull factor, these
are the factors that attract people towards them. For example Job Opportunities, Better Living
Standard and High Wages etc.
I have applied the push factor of Lee's theory considering the topic of my article Because
talking about Pakistan, many people have migrated from one place to another due to natural
disaster in Pakistan. Due to natural disasters, people lose their jobs and poverty spreads due to
which they migrate from one place to another in search of their employment. If seen, the
migration of people here is due to poverty or poor living standards, so the push factor of Lee's
theory will apply.
Talking about Pakistan, natural disasters have affected Pakistan in different ways at
different times. We attempt to apply Lee's theory of push factors to natural disaster-induced
migration in Pakistan. For example, if we talk about Sindh, there was a flood in 2011 due to
which people from 250 miles away migrated towards Karachi. Because their crops were
destroyed due to the slab and many people became homeless and around 50 thousand people
migrated towards Karachi. If some factor of Lee's theory is applied here, we can see that people
migrated due to push factor because the slab destroyed many people's houses and destroyed
crops and spread poverty. People migrated for their survival.
In another example, floods in 2010 displaced 2 million people and led to massive migration
from rural areas to cities. If the push factor is applied here, we can see that people migrated to
cities due to their poor living standards and increasing poverty.
Similarly, if we talk about Kashmir, a severe earthquake occurred in the Himalayan region of
Kashmir in 2005, which is 9 km away from Muzaffarabad. According to the government of
Pakistan, about one lakh people died and 3.5 million people's homes were destroyed due to the
earthquake. About 100,000 people migrated to the city of Muzaffarabad because they had no
homes and poverty had increased. If the push factor is applied here, we can see that people
migrated to get shelter because many people were displaced. Similarly, increasing poverty has
also forced people to migrate.
We can see from these examples that people migrated from one place to another but behind
this migration there was some push factor that caused people to migrate.

Major body
The flood of 2022:
In 2022, severe floods occurred in Pakistan due to monsoon rains which
caused destruction in many parts of the country. Due to this flood, more than 1500
people died and millions were displaced. Similarly, due to floods, the country has
to face many other consequences such as lack of productivity and diseases caused
by floods etc.
Satellite images of the inundated areas show that the floods have heavily
affected southern provinces including Baluchistan, Sindh and KPK. Rainfall in
southern provinces was five times higher than other provinces. August and July in
2022 were the wettest months since 1960.180 percent more rains in July and 243
percent more in August. The 2022 flood was the second largest after 2010.Apart
from this, densely populated area on the banks of river Indus was submerged due
to flood and economic loss of 30 million dollars was caused due to this flood and
many agricultural lands were affected and people migrated to other areas for
livelihood.
Similarly, one-third of the country was submerged in water due to this
flood, which affected about 33 million people within the country and left many
people homeless. According to the National Disaster Management Authority, more
than 1,200 people, including children, were killed in the floods from June to
September. Similarly, due to floods, roads and crops etc. have been destroyed and
displaced people have taken shelter in camps and some people have moved.
(Gabriela Nagle Alverio, 2023)
If we talk about Lee theory, it is based on push and pull factor. If we talk about
displacement of people in case of flood, then people migrated due to push factor.
Because everything was destroyed due to the flood and poverty increased a lot and
unemployment was also high Similarly education has been affected a lot due to
flood along with health related people have faced many problems.
 Here I will discuss some of the push factors and how these push factors
changed during the pre-flood or post-flood. And whether there is any change in
these push factor or not.
There are following Push factors
• Poverty
• Unemployment
• Education
Poverty
If we compare the poverty, we see that before the 2022 flood, the poverty rate
in flood-affected areas was higher than other areas. If we talk about Sindh, before
2022 the poverty rate there was 31 percent And if we talk about the poverty rate in
other regions of Pakistan, it was about 22 percent before 2022. That's why even
before the flood it was a bit difficult for people to live there because the poverty
rate was very high there before the flood.
Similarly, when monsoon floods hit Pakistan in 2022, poverty increased,
especially in Sindh and Baluchistan. According to an estimate, 9.1 million people
fell into poverty due to this flood And the poverty rate increased by four percent.
Before the flood, the poverty rate was 31 percent, after the flood, it increased to 35
percent. Because of this flood, people suffered a lot and poverty spread day by day,
due to which people migrated to get out of poverty.( world bank )
If we look at the poverty rate after the flood, the poverty rate has increased.
According to the World Bank report, the poverty rate in the flood-affected areas
has reached 39.4 percent. Flood damage has led to food shortages and rising
commodity prices, leaving 12.5 million people living below the poverty line.( WFP
report )
If we look at the port rate, poverty in the flood-affected areas was higher
before the flood The poverty rate increased further due to the flood. If you look at
it, it was right for people to migrate, because according to the report coming in
2023, the poverty rate has also increased.
Unemployment
If we talk about unemployment in Sindh and Baluchistan before the flood in
2022 So according to Pakistan Labor Force, there were about 660,000 unemployed
people in Sindh, while about 130,000 people were unemployed in Baluchistan.
( Baluchistan)
Similarly, when the flood occurred in 2022, there was a lot of damage due to
this flood, due to which poverty increased. Due to this flood many crops have been
destroyed and the people who worked on the crops became unemployed. And
unemployment increased further.
Similarly, if we talk about the unemployment rate in Sindh and Baluchistan
after 2022, then it has increased. In Sindh, the agriculture sector is the source of
employment. Lands will be destroyed due to floods and 4.4M acres of crops have
been destroyed. And due to this, many people became unemployed. That is why
the unemployment rate is higher than before
Talking about Baluchistan, there are also many people who work in agriculture
and small business. Due to floods, people's businesses and crops will be destroyed
and infrastructure will be badly affected. Due to which many people had to lose
their jobs. If unemployment is compared, it has increased day by day. There was
unemployment before the flood, but unemployment has increased during and after
the flood.( world bank )
Education Issues
Here we discuss the related issue of education and see how education was
affected before the flood during the flood or after the flood. Before the 2022
floods, education in Pakistan was facing many problems For example, due to lack
of trained teachers and girls' education was very low due to other social factors. In
case of Baluchistan, 60% were girls aged between 5 and 11 years who were not
going to school. Similarly, if we talk about education in Sindh, there was a lack of
clean drinking water in the schools of Sindh and besides, the teachers were not
doing their work well and the absents of the teachers was very high. Education was
also affected due to security concerns in some parts of Baluchistan.
Educational infrastructure was badly affected during the 2022 floods. If we
talk about Sindh, 39 % primary and secondary schools in Sindh were affected due
to this flood. And some schools were used as shelters. Due to this flood, 22
thousand schools were damaged in Pakistan due to which the education of 3.5
million children was affected.( unicef 2022)
After this flood, UNICEF has established 624 temporary education centers
in Baluchistan and Sindh. who are helping 51053 children and their aim is to help
another 157251 children. In addition, UNICEF is providing mental health
education to teachers ( unicef 2024 )
Impact of internal displacement on displaced Population
Short term impact
Any disaster within a country has many impacts on displaced people. short-
term impact, when people migrate from one place to another, they include women,
children, youth, and the elderly, when they migrate from one place to another, they
face various challenges. People don't have their own houses to live in and the
means of livelihood is destroyed. The basic needs of people are not fulfilled. When
people migrate, many people lose their jobs, which affects their financial stability.
When people migrate, health problems can worsen due to overcrowding or lack of
sanitation.As for children, they do not have access to education. As for women,
they do not get protection, and many women cannot even get the necessary
documents for assistance because they do not have a national identity card
Long term impact
Similarly, in terms of long-term challenges, displacement can disrupt social networks and
community structures. Due to which it can be difficult for any person to start his life again. The most
important impact is poverty which will increase day by day and the sources of livelihood will decrease. If
we talk about the second impact, it is education because the education structure due to migration is
adversely affected. If the education structure is not right, the future of the youth can be badly affected.
Apart from this, people may suffer from anxiety and depression. Returning home after migration can be
issues due to land tenure issues, property disputes, and lack of legal protection.
Impact on host communities
Due to the crisis in Swat in Pakistan in 2009, many people migrated from one place to another Due to
which the host community faced various challenges .
There were sudden arrivals of displaced
population and the host community faced real problems with housing and basic
infrastructure. Similarly, there was lack of clean drinking water along with
sanitation problems. Apart from this, the host community also faced health
problems due to overcrowding. Similarly, if a host community is economically
weak, it may become more weak by helping the displaced population.
 Displaced population can disturb the social balance in the host community
which can lead to resentment among the people because if the displaced
population is given more importance than the local people, the people in the
host community can become resentful among themselves.
 Redirecting resources to displaced populations can damage educational
infrastructure. Displaced populations cause overcrowding in schools, making
it difficult for both the host community and the displaced population to
receive quality education.
 Similarly, when the people of the host community see the displaced
population or their problems, they become emotional and also feel anxiety
and stress.
To mitigate these impacts, it is important for the government to provide support
to the displaced population as well as the host community. This includes
providing economic support to the host community and strengthening
infrastructure. (Din, InternalDisplacementinPakistan:, 2010)
 Government Response after the Flood
The Government of Pakistan launched the 2022 Pakistan Flood Response
Plan in collaboration with the United Nations and other partners. This
comprehensive plan addresses the needs of more than 5.2 million affected
people and focuses on life-saving response activities.
FRP main purpose includes food security, assistance to agriculture and
livestock, shelter, non-food items, nutrition programs, basic health services,
protection, water, sanitation, women's health, and education.
In addition, the World Bank partnered with the Government of Sindh to repair
damaged infrastructure and create employment opportunities under the Sindh Field
Emergency Rehabilitation Project. US$ 20 million from 2022 to 2023 for repair of
motors and other maintenance to repair 208 major cracks in canals and drains.
( rising from the water wb 2023 )