Climate Change and the Future World

Climate Change Responses in Brazil

Abigail McKowenand Nadia Wu

Introduction
Brazil emerges as a critical player in climate change, both in terms of its vast geographical
expanse and its unparalleled ecological richness. As the largest country in South America,
Brazil is a key contributor to the intricate web of climate change dynamics. Due to the
expanse of its ecological diversity and natural resources, the implications of its environmental
choices go far beyond its borders. As the world grapples with the repercussions of a changing
climate, Brazil finds itself at a crossroads, where the decisions made today will shape the
environmental legacy for generations to come. This report will investigate Brazil’s climate
change risks, energy profile, climate mitigation and adaptation strategies, and climate
activism and research currently conducted.

Figure 1: The Amazon Rainforest, Brazil

(Pimental, 2022)

Climate change risks affecting Brazil

Climate changes, whether local, regional, or global, refer to variations in average weather
patterns over long periods. Some atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and
nitrous oxide have the natural ability to trap solar radiation from the sun that would otherwise
be reflected into space. This process, the greenhouse effect, is essential to maintaining
liveable temperature conditions on Earth (Bolles, 2022). However, the greenhouse effect has
been escalated by human activity in the aftermath of the Industrial Revolution. Industrial
waste and pollution release excessive amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,
resulting in global warming. This means that climate changes that would usually occur over
several centuries due to natural phenomena, such as volcanic activity, tectonic shifts, orbital
changes, and fluctuations in solar radiation, have occurred in very recent decades (Turrentine,
2021). Global warming has dramatically changed natural cycles and weather patterns,
increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. This includes prolonged
droughts and dry periods, flooding, storms, cyclones, bushfires, and increased global
temperatures. Warmer temperatures melt polar ice caps, raising sea levels and causing ocean
acidification (Butler, 2018).
Figure 2: Top C02 Emitting Countries 2020

(Union of Concerned Scientists, 2021)

Forests
As indicated by Figure 2, Brazil has the 14th highest carbon footprint in the world (World
Population Review, 2024). Additionally, the country houses three-quarters of the Amazon
Rainforest, pictured in Figure 1, the world’s largest land carbon sink. It is estimated that 27%
of the Amazon biome will have been deforested by 2030, 75% of which will be within Brazil
(Regrowski, 2019). Its continuous deforestation will release substantial amounts of stored
carbon into the atmosphere, elevating the risk of severe climate events. At the current level of
emissions, temperatures are projected to increase by approximately 2.2 ℃ by 2050, with a
20% decrease in rainfall (USAID, 2018). Further temperature projections are displayed in
Figure 3. This will result in severe droughts and prolonged dry periods, increasing tree
mortality, eliminating natural fire barriers and destroying native habitats, reducing
biodiversity and protection against invasive species. Moreover, deforestation limits the
availability of natural resources, including traditional food and medicines, and depletes
freshwater reserves. This will have a significant impact on rural communities, including 30
million indigenous people who have a strong reliance on the forest for both sustenance and
income (Council on Foreign Relations, 2022).
Figure 3: Temperature anomalies in Brazil from 1985-2100

(Climate Risk Anaylsis, 2023)

Coast
Sea level rising will cause great social, cultural and economic loss in Brazil. The ocean also
serves as a carbon sink by absorbing C02 from the atmosphere. However, human-induced
carbon emissions exacerbate this process, decreasing the pH of the water in a process called
ocean acidification. Surface sea temperatures in Brazil are also projected to increase by 1.5
℃ by 2050 (USAID, 2018). These factors damage marine life and are predicted to reduce
potential in the fishing industry by 8.8%, affecting the livelihoods of many coastal dwellers.
Moreover, sea levels are projected to rise by 0.2 m by 2100. This increases the vulnerability
of coastal communities to saltwater intrusion, coastal erosion, storms, flooding, and other
hazards pictured in Figure 4. These communities will face a loss of habitable land, a
reduction in water quality, infrastructure damage (roads, buildings, ports and utilities) and
housing displacement, triggering a spike in climate refugees (Muehe, 1995). It is predicted
that 618,000 people in Brazil will be impacted by flooding due to sea level rising (USAID,
2018).
Figure 4: Climate Change Hazards

(Climate Risk Anaylsis, 2023)

Agriculture
Drier conditions will damage agricultural infrastructure, triggering land erosion and
deteriorating soil quality. This degradation ultimately diminishes the availability of arable
land, which, when combined with a loss of resources and changed rain distribution patterns,
will reduce crop yield and livestock production. It is projected that 11 million hectares of
agricultural land will be lost by 2030 as a result of climate change, and that these stressors
will exacerbate food insecurity and job loss (Da Silva, 2017).
Health
Climate change will have detrimental effects on the health of people in Brazil. Flooding will
increase levels of infectious disease and food insecurity while limiting waterway
transportation and access to healthcare. Increased temperatures will cause heatwaves to last
7644% longer, with heat-related deaths increasing by 854%. Additionally, pollution will
worsen air quality and respiratory health (Confaloneiri, 2009).
Tourism
Tourism in Brazil is heavily reliant on its seemingly abundant natural resources and coastline.
Climate stressors, however, will decrease natural attractions and biodiversity. Damaged
infrastructure, health issues, and a lack of access to coastal resources will further deter
tourism and foreign involvement within Brazil. Climate change is estimated to cause a 7.35%
decrease in Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 (Grimm, et al, 2018).

Brazil’s Energy Profile

Brazil, one of the biggest nations in the world and in South America, has a varied energy mix
that is mostly provided by its wealth of natural resources. Brazil confronts the difficulty of
striking a balance between energy demand and sustainability and environmental concerns as a
rising nation with a rapidly growing population and industrial sector. Brazil’s energy
consumption has increased by 9.11% over the last 2 years, a change prompted by economic
growth and population increase, boasting almost universal access to electricity, with
renewables meeting nearly 45% of the country's primary energy demand (IEA, 2024). As
indicated by Figure 5, Brazil’s largest source of energy in 2022 is hydropower. Major rivers
such as the Amazon and Parana provide ample opportunity for hydroelectric development,
such as the Itaipu Dam and the Belo Monte Dam, that supply the country with abundant clean
energy. This is supplemented by significant offshore oil and gas reserves, of which the
exploration and production provides another income channel. Brazil is Latin America's top
oil producer, with deep-water pre-salt fields contributing significantly to national production.
The country's average oil production in 2022 was 3.02 million barrels per day (International
Trade Administration, 2023). While solar and wind power only account for a small share of
energy consumption within Brazil, the favourable conditions of the nation, such as large land
area and suitable climate conditions make it conducive to the future development of other
renewable energy sources. This move toward renewable sources of energy contribute to
environmental goals, such as the Paris Agreement and reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.
Contradictorily, Brazil also aims to become the world’s fifth largest exporter of crude oil by
2030, demonstrating the difficulty for developing countries to balance economic progress and
climate responsibility.
Brazil’s energy sector has major potential for continual growth and technological innovation,
diversifying energy sources as fossil fuels and unrenewable energy is slowly phased out. As
of 2022, 48.74% of all energy consumed in Brazil are renewables, which, compared to the
world average of 14.21%, puts Brazil at the forefront of the global trend renewable energy.
Figure 5: Energy Consumption by Source, Brazil

(Statistical Review of World Energy, 2023)

Overview of climate mitigation strategies in Brazil

Climate mitigation refers to efforts and strategies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and
limit the extent of global warming on human societies, economies, the environment, and
ecosystems. The Brazilian government aims to reduce emissions by 37% by 2025 and 50%
by 2030 compared to 2005, with the long-term goal of reaching climate neutrality by 2050.
According to Climate Tracker, however, Brazil is not on track to reach its climate goals
unless great transformations occur (Brazil-G20 Climate Risk Atlas, 2021).
Deforestation in Brazil was lowest between 2004 and 2012, when legislation and policies
surrounding business activities within the Amazon Rainforest were strongly enforced by the
government. This resulted in a reduction in illegal cattle ranching for exports, mining and
logging. However, a change in government control resulted in deforestation levels reaching
an all-time high in 2021. Six months after the president, Jair Bolsonaro, was sworn in at the
beginning of 2019, enforcement actions had already dropped by 20% compared to 2018.
Additionally, it is believed that the economic benefits of raw materials, developed
infrastructure such as roads and dams, and agriculture reduced the efficiency of authorities in
tracking and punishing offenders. Small-scale subsistence farmers also participate in
unsustainable agricultural practices and land-clearing techniques such as ‘slash and burn’ to
grow sugarcane, soy, palm oil, and other commodities (Sandy, 2022).
In mid-2023, the Brazilian government announced an environmental policy called The Action
Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Amazon (PPCDAm), which
details several strategies to combat the issue. The plan aims to strengthen law enforcement
and monitoring of the forest. Data and satellite imagery will be cross-checked with financial
intelligence and the rural registry to track illegal activities, for example, the identification of
equipment like mining excavators or logging machinery paid with cash (Paraguassu, 2023).
Furthermore, economic incentives such as the Amazon Fund will be promoted for sustainable
forest management and conservation. The Forest Restoration Pact aims to restore 12 million
hectares of deforested land by 2030. Another key mitigation factor is expanding indigenous
land rights and integrating indigenous knowledge into national and regional climate policies.
Indigenous peoples have a deep connection to the environment. Their extensive knowledge of
forest management and conservation, including traditional practices like agroforestry, can
help to reduce deforestation and enhance biodiversity. This can be utilised when promoting
education and awareness of sustainable agriculture within rural farming communities (Posey,
1997).

Overview of climate adaption strategies in Brazil

As the domestic population grows, so does energy demand. The rapid diversification of
energy source action by the government works to combat the issue of energy consumption
outpacing generation capacity. The risk of hydropower plants underperforming increases as
drier weather reduces the flow rates, thus the need to adapt climate change impact on the
Amazon Basin is urgent (WWF, 2019). The energy sector is a major emission reduction target
for the country, which has committed to increase its renewables in the energy mix by 45%,
expand 18% biofuels into the energy mix and achieve 10% efficiency gains in the electricity
sector, all by 2030. To adapt to the pressure of climate change, Brazil is on track to outpace
its goal to reduce greenhouse gas emission by 37% by 2025 (Climate Knowledge Portal,
2023). The National Adaptation Program provides several courses of action to enact socio-
economic and environmental adaptation, such as -
 Establishing adaptation measures and vertical governance measures
throughout all levels of government.
 Base adaptation measures on scientific, technical and tradition knowledge,
with the aim of applying suitable changes, which conform with legal and
territorial particularities.
 Consider economic, social and environmental factors when implementing and
promoting adaptation measures, ensuring attention and care given to
vulnerable and disadvantaged groups, such as the indigenous, quilombola and
riparian populations.
 Allow adaptation measures to align with development planning, ensuring
sustainable climate adaptation.

The nation is also in the process of creating and implementing energy conservation plans,
increasing energy efficiency, and undertaking sensitivity assessments of its energy
infrastructure to climate hazards. In addition, Brazil is establishing a climate risk platform to
facilitate information sharing and awareness-raising as well as integrating climate risk
management into the planning and operations of the energy sector.

One of the main pillars of sustainable rural development in Brazil is the restoration of native
vegetation, which has a multiplicity of benefits from social and economic development to
biodiversity protection and enhancement. Georeferencing and tracking system technology is
projected to enhance sustainable forest management by reducing unsustainable practices and
enhancing management skills.
Brazil submitted its Third Biennial Update Report in 2019 along with its Fourth National
Communication and Updated Nationally-Determined Contributions to the UNFCCC in 2020.
The guidelines and policy goals for adaptation and mitigation priorities and activities are
provided by these publications, which should be consulted in conjunction with the nation's
National Policy on Climate Change and National Adaptation Plan. Brazil is dedicated to
increasing its renewable energy, improving water resource management, improving the
public health sector, and implementing its ecosystem-based adaptation and mitigation
policies in order to strengthen its adaptive capacity and overall development agenda (Climate
Knowledge Portal, 2023).

Social activism focused on climate change

Nonprofit organisations
Amazon Watch is an international nonprofit organisation that works closely with Brazillian
partners and activists to protect the Amazon Rainforest and advance indigenous rights. It was
founded in 1996 due to rising concerns around deforestation, resource extraction, and the
relegation of indigenous communities. Amazon Watch advocates for policies that promote
sustainable land use and forest conservation, especially those that protect the forest against
illegal cattle ranching, logging, and mining. The organisation holds the government and
corporations accountable for their environmental impact, especially those involved in oil
drilling and dam construction, and uses public awareness initiatives to pressure them to adopt
sustainable practices. Furthermore, the organisation advocates for better legal protection and
the expansion of indigenous land rights. It amplifies the voices of Indigenous communities
facing devastating threats to their land, culture, and livelihoods (Amazon Watch, 2024). There
are several other nonprofits and non-government organisations (NGOs) such as Instituto
Socioambiental (ISA), the Brazillian Climate Observatory, Instuto Clima e Sociedade (iCS),
Engajamundo, who aim to reduce carbon emissions through public awareness, protests and
education, as pictured in Figure 5.
Indigenous youth activism
The leadership and efforts of indigenous youth are fundamental to climate activism in Brazil.
Initiatives such as ‘Guardians of the Forest’ allow for youth-led patrols and monitoring to
protect ancestral land from deforestation and illegal activities. Indigenous youth join urban
youth and environmental organisations in climate strikes and protests. These, alongside social
media platforms and international forums, advocate for indigenous rights, sustainable
development, environmental protection, and climate resilience policies. The younger
generation is key to building cultural resilience and revitalizing traditional land use and
sustainable agricultural practices to promote conservation, biodiversity and a better future for
Brazil (Monteiro, 2020).
Figure 6: Climate protests in Brazil

(Lima, 2022)

Climate Research
Brazil is starting to realise the importance of indigenous knowledge in climate mitigation and
adaptation. This change reflects a growing realisation that cultural sensitivity and
environmental sustainability are equally important for plans to be successful. Integrating
indigenous knowledge into various aspects of efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
is a critical component of Brazil's approach.

First of all, the incorporation of indigenous knowledge in climate change research recognises
the depth of knowledge indigenous peoples have about local environments and ecosystems,
especially the Amazon Forest. Their customary methods of managing and conserving their
forests are now recognised to be crucial for improving biodiversity, storing carbon, and
reducing the rate of deforestation—all of which are critical components of reducing the
effects of climate change (Nakashima, 2018).
Furthermore, Brazil is adopting native farming methods that show exceptional resistance to
climate unpredictability, like agroforestry and the production of traditional crop types. In
addition to improving food security, these methods provide viable models for adaptation,
especially in rural areas that are susceptible to extreme weather events.
Participatory climate research is another significant strategy that actively includes indigenous
populations in the monitoring and analysis of the effects of climate change. Brazil obtains
important insights for climate science and the development of localised adaptation strategies
by utilising indigenous knowledge of seasonal indicators, wildlife behaviour, and ecosystem
changes. This contributes to indigenous landownership recognition, manifesting in policies
that support indigenous land rights and political dialogues that include indigenous
perspectives (Ki-moon, 2012).
The inclusion of indigenous knowledge in the processes of climate mitigation and adaptation
not only increases the efficiency of climate protection and preservation actions, but also
further legitimises the indigenous culture as an aspect of society that deserves to be
recognised and protected.
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