Infant Mortality Rate

Mathematics Project
Done By : Netra
XI -E
2024-2025
 Definition and Importance of IMR

The infant mortality rate (IMR) is a measure of the number of deaths of infants under one year of age per 1,000 live births in a given year.

Importance of IMR as a Public Health Indicator

1. Health System Performance: IMR reflects the overall effectiveness of a healthcare system in providing maternal and infant care.
2. Socioeconomic Conditions: IMR is closely linked to socioeconomic factors. Monitoring IMR helps identify and address social
inequalities.
3. Population Health Trends: Changes in IMR over time can signal broader health trends within a population.
4. Policy and Resource Allocation: Targeting areas with high infant mortality can help improve outcomes and reduce health
disparities.
5. Global Health Goals: IMR is a key indicator for global health initiatives, including the United Nations Sustainable Development
Goals, which aim to reduce neonatal and under-five mortality rates.
Calculating IMR
IMR is calculated using the formula:

IMR=(Number of infant deaths / Number of live births) x 1,000

For Example,

Scenario:
In a large city, there were 30 infant deaths and 5,000 live births in the same year.

Calculation:

IMR=(Number of infant deaths / Number of live births) x 1,000

Substituting in the numbers:

IMR= (30/5000) x 1000 = 6

Result:
The infant mortality rate for this city is 6 deaths per 1,000 live births.
Trends Over Time
Analyzing trends in infant mortality rates (IMR) over decades provides valuable insights into the effectiveness of public health interventions
and the impact of socioeconomic factors. Here’s a general overview of IMR trends in various countries and regions:

1. Global Trends

● 1980s to 2020s:
○ Globally, IMR has significantly decreased from around 65 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to approximately 29 in 2020.

2. Sub-Saharan Africa

● 1980s:
○ IMR was notably high, often exceeding 100 deaths per 1,000 live births in many countries.
● 2020s:
○ Continued efforts, including programs targeting maternal health and childhood diseases, have led to gradual reductions.
However, many countries still struggle with IMRs above 50.
3. South Asia

● 1980s:
○ Countries like India and Pakistan had IMRs around 80-90 deaths per 1,000 live births.
● 2020s:
○ IMR continues to decline, but regional disparities persist, with some states in India still reporting higher rates.

4. East Asia

● 1980s:
○ Countries like China had high IMRs (around 40-60), but rapid economic growth and healthcare reforms led to significant
improvements.
● 2020s:
○ Continued efforts in maternal and child health have maintained low IMRs, with some countries in the region reporting IMRs
below 5.

5. North America and Western Europe

● 1980s to 2000s:
○ In countries like the U.S. and those in Western Europe were around 10-15 deaths per 1,000 live births.
● 2010s to 2020s:
○ There have been slight fluctuations, with the U.S. experiencing some increases in IMR due to social factors, leading to
approximately 5.4 in recent years, while Western European countries often report IMRs below 5.
Factors Influencing IMR
1. Maternal Health

● Prenatal Care
● Maternal Age

2. Nutrition

● Infant Nutrition
● Food Security

3. Healthcare Access

● Availability of Services
● Vaccination Programs
Statistical Correlations between these factors and IMR :

1. Maternal Health

● Prenatal Care: Studies show that women receiving adequate prenatal care have a 40% lower risk of infant mortality compared to
those who do not receive any prenatal care.
● Maternal Age: Research indicates that infants born to mothers aged 15-19 have a 50% higher risk of dying in their first year
compared to those born to mothers aged 20-34. Conversely, maternal age above 35 is also associated with higher IMR.

2. Nutrition

● Maternal Nutrition: A meta-analysis found that malnutrition during pregnancy is linked to an increased risk of low birth weight,
which is a significant predictor of infant mortality. Infants born with low birth weight are 20 times more likely to die than those of
normal weight.
● Infant Nutrition: Exclusive breastfeeding for the first six months can reduce IMR by 13%. Studies show that infants who are not
breastfed are more susceptible to infections and illnesses.

3. Healthcare Access

● Healthcare Access: A World Health Organization study revealed that countries with less than 80% coverage of skilled birth
attendance have an IMR that is two to three times higher than countries with higher coverage.
● Vaccination Coverage: Data indicates that a 10% increase in vaccination coverage can lead to a 5% decrease in IMR.
Case Studies
Here are some notable case studies of countries that have successfully reduced infant mortality rates (IMR), along with an
analysis of the strategies they implemented:

1. Bangladesh

IMR Reduction:

● From approximately 65 deaths per 1,000 live births in the early 2000s to around 29 in 2020.

Strategies:

● Community Health Programs

● Promotion of Breastfeeding
● Vaccination Campaigns
● Family Planning
2. Rwanda

IMR Reduction:

● Reduced from about 76 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2000 to around 25 in 2020.

Strategies:

● Health System Reforms:

● Community Health Workers
● Integrated Health Services
● Immunization and Nutrition Programs

3. Thailand

IMR Reduction:

● IMR decreased from around 38 deaths per 1,000 live births in the 1980s to approximately 8 in 2020.

Strategies:

● Universal Healthcare Coverage

● Public Health Campaigns
● Emphasis on Education
● Integrated Services
Statistical Methods
1. Descriptive Statistics

Before diving into more complex analyses, it's essential to summarize the data using descriptive statistics: Mean, Median and Standard Deviation.

2. Regression Analysis

Regression analysis helps determine relationships between IMR and various independent variables (e.g., maternal health, education, access to
healthcare). It includes linear regression and multiple regression.

3. Correlation Analysis

Correlation analysis examines the strength and direction of the relationship between two variables, such as maternal education and IMR.

4. Geospatial Analysis

Geospatial analysis can visualize IMR data geographically, revealing regional disparities and patterns.
Future Projections
Current Trends

1. Global Decline
2. Regional Disparities

Projections Based on Current Trends

● Developed Countries
● Developing Countries

Potential Impacts of Policies and Health Initiatives

1. Universal Healthcare Access:

2. Maternal and Child Health Programs:
3. Nutrition Programs:
4. Education and Community Awareness:
5. Climate and Environmental Health Policies:
Visualization of IMR

Visualizing IMR on a global scale using a map

Visualizing IMR of India on a map
Visualizing IMR using a graph
Conclusion
In summary, the application of mathematical methods to IMR data not only enhances our
understanding of the underlying factors affecting infant mortality but also informs
strategic decisions to improve health outcomes. As we continue to refine our statistical
approaches and expand our datasets, we can make more accurate predictions and
implement targeted interventions that contribute to the reduction of IMR globally.
Ultimately, sustained efforts and targeted interventions are essential to closing the gap in
infant mortality rates and ensuring healthier futures for mothers and their infants
worldwide. By focusing on equitable healthcare access and addressing social determinants
of health, we can make significant strides toward reducing IMR and improving overall
public health.