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Jemima Population

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7 views6 pages

Jemima Population

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Rian TV
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The demographic cycle, or population cycle, refers to the evolution over time of the

population profile of a country, region or other defined geographical area. A population


cycle theory has been postulated in terms of the socio-economic history of
industrialized countries. Four stages of population change have been identified in the
demographic cycle: the first high stationary phase marked by high birth and high death
rates and relatively low population; the second phase with uneven population density
due to increased urbanization and industrialization; the third phase where the birth and
death rates are much lower resulting in a relatively steady population growth; and the
fourth phase of population cycle which is characterized by stagnation or an actual
decline in the total population of a country due to an excess of deaths over births. As
shown in the diagram below;

A DIAGRAM OF DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE

Tanzania is at the second stage of demographic cycle where birth rates are still high and
death rates have begun to fall markedly. Typically, Tanzania is still in phase of stylized
demographic cycle according to Eastwood and Lipton (2011). In this stage, standards of
hygiene and more modern medical techniques began to drive the death rate down,
leading to a significant upward trend in population size. The birth rate remained high,
as much of the economy was based on agriculture.
In the second phase, the population's health slowly starts to improve, and the mortality
rate starts to fall. Since the health of the population has already improved, but fertility
remains as high as before, this is the stage of the cycle at which the size of the
population starts to grow rapidly. Historically it is the exceptional time at which the
extended family with many (surviving) children is common. The following
characteristics shows that Tanzania’s population currently is at stage two of
demographic cycle

Decline in death rate; The decline in death rates can be attributed to social and welfare
policies which have improved the environment and access to nutrition/healthcare for
all. The decline in the death rate is due initially to two factors includes:

First, improvements in the food supply brought about by higher yields in agricultural
practices and better transportation reduce death due to starvation and lack of water.
Agricultural improvements included crop rotation, selective breeding, and seed drill
technology.

Second, significant improvements in public health reduce mortality, particularly


in childhood. These are not so much medical breakthroughs (Europe passed through
stage two before the advances of the mid-twentieth century, although there was
significant medical progress in the nineteenth century, such as the development of
vaccination) as they are improvements in water supply, sewerage, food handling, and
general personal hygiene following from growing scientific knowledge of the causes of
disease and the improved education and social status of mothers.

High birth rates; Birth rate is the number of individuals born in a population in a
given amount of time. The birth rates have actually increased probably because of
improved health care provisions, and shortening periods of breast-feeding. The trend of
birth rate in Tanzania for recent consecutive years is as follows; the birth rate for
Tanzania in 2021 was 35.848 births per 1000 people, the birth rate for Tanzania in 2022
was 35.497 births per 1000 people, the birth rate for Tanzania in 2023 was 35.146
births per 1000 people, the current birth rate for Tanzania in 2024 is 34.848 births per
1000 people. As illustrated in the diagram below.
DIAGRAM TO SHOW THE TREND OF BIRTHRATES IN TANZANIA

Change in the age structure of the population. Another characteristic of Stage Two
of the demographic cycle is a change in the age structure of the population. In stage
one, the majority of deaths are concentrated in the first 5–10 years of life. Therefore,
more than anything else, the decline in death rates in Stage Two entails the increasing
survival of children and a growing population. Hence, the age structure of the
population becomes increasingly youthful and start to have big families and more of
these children enter the reproductive cycle of their lives while maintaining the high
fertility rates of their parents. The bottom of the "age pyramid" widens first where
children, teenagers and infants are here, accelerating population growth rate. The age
structure of such a population is illustrated by using the current Tanzania population
structure.
Conclusively, the world and most countries are going through a period of
unprecedentedly rapid demographic change. In stage two of population cycle where
Tanzania is belonged to death rates fell while birth rates remained high due to the
improvements in public health were primarily in the areas of food handling, water
supply, sewage, and personal hygiene. This led to rapid population growth as societies
attain more technology, education especially of women and economic development.
REFERENCES

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. (2021). World Population
Prospects 2019: nited Nations. (2019a). World Population Prospects 2019:

World Bank. (2021). Fertility rate, total (births per woman). Retrieved from
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. (2021). Population


Ageing and Sustainable Development Goals.

Lutz, W., Muttarak, R., & Striessnig, E. (2018). Universal education is key to enhanced
climate adaptation.

UNFPA. (2021). Glossary. Retrieved from https://www.unfpa.org/resources/glossary

World Bank. (2021). Fertility rate, total (births per woman).

United Nations Population Fund. (2021). Sex Ratio Imbalance.

WHO. (2018). World Health Statistics 2018: Monitoring Health for the SDGs.

United Nations. (2019b). International Migration Report 2019 (ST/ESA/SER. A/440).

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