Bernstein Consumer report
Bernstein Consumer report
RBA
-10% Spencers
Legend
Grocery
Fashion
-15% QSR
Bubble Size = Revenue/ Sector Size
RBA
-10% Spencers
Legend
Grocery
Fashion
-15% QSR
Bubble Size = Revenue/ Sector Size
19,300
15%
20% 5%
Total Pincodes in No Organized Retail Atleast 1 Organized 5 or less Stores More than 5 stores
India Stores Retail Store
40 300
36
262
35
250
30
211
26
25 200 187
22
21
20 163
19
20
17 17 17 150
15 13
12
11
10
100 83
10 8 8 80
5 52
44 45
50 33 32
25
-
96%
85%
18% 81% 83%
79%
75% 8%
9% General, Admin
65% 12% 17%
18%
19% Marketing, Royalty,
26%
9% 24% Commissions
0% 2% 19%
13% Occupancy
37% (Rent, Utilities)
30% Manpower
35% 23% 31%
26% 30%
20% 100%
10%
15%
90%
10%
10%
5% 80%
5%
0% 0%
Retail Restaurants Retail Restaurants Retail Restaurants
Market cap ($ Bn) $38.5 $29.4 $3.9 $5.2 $1.7 $2.6 $1.2
Consensus Ratings
Buy 50% 55% 23% 47% 38% 63% 86%
Hold 19% 25% 36% 25% 31% 17% 5%
Sell 31% 20% 41% 28% 31% 21% 9%
80%
19,300
15%
20% 5%
Total Pincodes in No Organized Retail Atleast 1 Organized 5 or less Stores More than 5 stores
India Stores Retail Store
67%
100%
22%
33%
11%
Population No Organized Retail Atleast 1 Organized 5 or less Stores More than 5 stores
Stores Retail Store
1.8%
1.5%
1.0% 1.0%
0.6%
0.4% 0.4%
Rupa
20
-
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Revenue CAGR F19-24
40 300
36
262
35
250
30
211
26
25 200 187
22
21
20 163
19
20
17 17 17 150
15 13
12
11
10
100 83
10 8 8 80
5 52
44 45
50 33 32
25
-
96%
85% 83%
18% 81%
79%
75% 8%
9% General, Admin
65% 12% 17%
18%
19% Marketing, Royalty,
26%
9% 24% Commissions
0% 2% 19%
13% Occupancy
37% (Rent, Utilities)
30% Manpower
35% 23% 31%
26% 30%
26% 29%
24%
19% 20% 20% 19%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jubilant Westlife Devyani Sapphire
Brand 1 Brand 2 Brand 3 Brand 4 Brand 5 Brand 6 Brand 7
102% 100%
100% 4%
2%
88% 76% 74%
80% 73% 74%
71%
18%
12% 9% 7% 7%
80% 74% 7% 8%
1% 1% 10% 9% 9%
13% 60% 8% 9%
7% Depreciation
19%
60% 9%
0% Interest 23%
40% 27% 27% 31% 30%
2%
37% General,
30% Administrative
40%
35% Advertising & 20%
34% 29%
Marketing 27% 27% 28%
Occupancy Costs
20% 0%
28% 29% Manpower FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
19%
Manpower Occupancy Costs
0% General, Administrative Interest
DMart Trent ABFRL Depreciation
100 97
90
78
80
70
60
50
39
40
30
22
20
11
10
0
FY12-15 FY16-19 FY20-25 FY26-30 E FY31-35 E
120
97 In Rs Bn
100 FY25-35:
12% CAGR 70 62
78
80 60
50
40
60 FY12-25: 40
17% CAGR
39 30 21
40
20
22 10
10 5 6 6
20 3
11
0
0 -10 -2 -4 -3
-9
-20
100%
90% 22%
28%
80%
70%
21%
60% 20%
50%
40%
30% 57%
51%
20%
10%
0%
FY19 FY24
Food Non-Food (FMCG) GMA
140x
120x
100x
SD+, 88.9
80x Average, 74.0
60x
SD-, 59.0
40x
Current: 77.3
20x
Total operating costs 224,000 284,778 392,025 466,851 570,582 698,482 864,489
Key Metrics
Free Cash flow to Firm (2,924) (8,927) 4,937 3,208 5,605 6,074 9,563
OCF/ EBITDA 92% 61% 77% 73% 70% 70% 69%
ROE 9% 12% 16% 15% 17% 18% 19%
ROCE 11% 15% 19% 19% 21% 22% 24%
Store growth -
FY 24-30 CAGR: 17%
238
250 227
Store growth - 220 216
211 214 211
FY 19-24 CAGR: 31%
9
200 18 15 22 67 54
16 32 46
17
146 19
20 21 23
150 128
13
2 14
26
100 193 180 175
59 56 160 150 150 150
50
0 1 119
50 25 15 4 100
9
34 40 37
0
97% 100%
30% 69%
56% 85%
<15% ~25-35%
Revenue per Sqft in FY24
20,000 ~ 19,000
18,000
16,000
14,000 ~ 13,000
12,000 ~ 11,200
~ 10,250
10,000 ~ 9,000
~ 7,600 ~ 7,700
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
Pantaloons Vmart ABFRL Lifestyle V2 Shopper stop Westside Zudio
700 649 60%
50%
600 46% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 50%
43% 44%
41% 529
500 40%
425
Revenue CAGR Revenue CAGR
400 FY 19-24 : 36% FY 24-30 : 32% 30%
328
300 249 20%
184
200 10%
12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13%
124
82
100 4% 5% 0%
3%
35 45
26 26 1%
0 -10%
-7%
150
138
128
130
118
90 83
70
50
30
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
80 FY22-24:
-3% CAGR
70
70 66
63
60
60 57
50
44
40
30
20
10
0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
75%
25
21.9 70% 69% 69%
FY22-24: 66%
20 28% CAGR 18.1
65% 63%
60%
15 60%
13.4 57%
12.3 11.9
55% 54%
10.0
10
50%
50%
5
45%
0 40%
-0.0
-0.9 -1.6 -0.9 -1.4 -1.0
-5
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Revenue PAT
250x
200x
150x
SD+,129
Average, 100
100x
0x
Total operating costs 8,871 14,426 24,486 34,941 52,610 70,263 92,720
Key Metrics
Free Cash flow to Firm 4,510 -3,174 3,783 11,453 17,615 25,700 36,241
OCF/ EBITDA 451% 13% 95% 92% 79% 76% 77%
ROE -8% 1% 16% 44% 43% 41% 38%
ROCE -2% 4% 8% 20% 36% 36% 35%
TCNS Super Premium
Jaypore 3%
1% 4%
TMRW
Tasva 3%
1%
Sabyasachi
3%
Masaba
0% Lifestyle
Shantanu & Brands
Nikhil 46%
1%
Pantaloons
30% American
Eagle
2%
Van Heusen IW
Reebok Forever 21
4%
3% 0%
35 250%
30
206% 200%
25
173% 169%
150%
20
15
29 100%
96% 95%
10 21
11 46% 14 50%
5
5 5
- 0%
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
60
14% 14%
40
13%
20 13 14 15
10 13
6 7
5 4 4
- 12%
FY23 FY24 FY25 E FY26 E FY27 E
40 7% 8%
6%
20 12
9 11
6 4 4%
-
2%
(5) (8) (6) (6)
(20) (13) 0%
FY23 FY24 FY25 E FY26 E FY27 E
23x
21x
19x
17x SD+,16.6
13x
11x SD-, 11.9
9x Current: 15.1
7x
5x
Total operating costs 46,942 70,363 109,243 125,433 134,489 146,127 160,244
Key Metrics
Free Cash flow to Firm (1,355) 9,642 (8,032) (19,568) 16,420 14,732 16,530
OCF/ EBITDA 151% 120% 53% 82% 102% 105% 106%
25
a 23.1
21.5
19.5
20
15 13.6
10.6
10
Veg/Chicken Parcel - Burger Pizza - 7.2
49/59 125/155/169
5
2.1
0
Paratha Pizza starting Chicken Wings/
@189 Meatballs -155/179
1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24
80 Mexico 1200
1025
70 Malaysia
China 1000
60 831
800
50
Turkey
627
40 600
Philippines
467
30 Thailand
359
400
Nepal Indonesia 292
20
Bhutan
10 India Sri Lanka 200
42
13 77
4
0
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2017 international
$)
Popeyes KFC AFC
79%
78.1%
78%
77.5%
77%
76.2% 76.3%
76% 75.6%
75.1%
74.9% 75.8%
74.8%
75%
74.3%
75.0%
74% 74.6%
73.9%
73.8%
73%
72%
71%
100.x
80.x
+1SD, 70.2x
70.x
Average, 58.2x
60.x
50.x
20.x
10.x
0.x
Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23 Feb-24 Aug-24
In Rs Mn, Unless otherwise mentioned FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
# Stores 1427 1667 1928 2991 3395 3792 4191
Revenue
India 32,689 43,311 50,960 53,409 62,133 73,035 85,153
DP Eurasia - - - 2,174 19,054 22,519 25,845
Sri Lanka + Bangladesh 430 650 623 958 1,375 1,905 2,452
Total Operating revenue 33,119 43,961 51,582 56,541 82,562 97,459 113,450
% Y-o-Y -16% 33% 17% 10% 46% 18% 16%
Total operating costs 18,144 22,974 27,589 31,695 43,529 50,484 58,427
Key Metrics
Free Cash flow to Firm 5,080 4,738 1,879 1,620 9,138 11,244 14,338
OCF/ EBITDA 89% 81% 85% 85% 99% 92% 94%
ROE 18% 25% 18% 19% 17% 23% 25%
ROCE 17% 22% 17% 11% 15% 19% 20%
2500 90%
Burger Pizza
80%
78% 1995
2000 70%
63%
59% 60%
1500 53% 52% 50%
38% 40%
1000
768 30%
25% 596 567
455 462 429 20%
500 397
268 271 299 319
166 10%
101
0 0%
McD (Westlife) BK KFC (Devy.) KFC (Sapp.) Dominos PH (Devy.) PH (Sapp.)
200x
180x
160x
140x
+1SD, 111.6x
Current - 94x
120x
100x
Average, 83.6x
80x
60x
BERN Target, 85x
40x -1SD, 55.6x
20x
0x
Aug-19 Aug-20 Aug-21 Aug-22 Aug-23 Aug-24
In Rs Mn, Unless otherwise mentioned FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
# Stores 305 326 357 397 439 484 529
Revenue
McDonald's 9,860 15,765 22,782 23,918 26,359 30,611 35,123
Total Operating revenue 9,860 15,765 22,782 23,918 26,359 30,611 35,123
% Y-o-Y -36% 60% 45% 5% 10% 16% 15%
Total operating costs 5,908 8,512 12,181 13,118 14,809 16,548 18,903
Key Metrics
Free Cash flow to Firm 801 706 795 1,241 1,582 2,515 3,187
OCF/ EBITDA 275% 88% 93% 92% 99% 96% 95%
ROE -19% 1% 22% 12% 9% 16% 18%
ROCE -4% 7% 17% 12% 11% 27% 28%
700 600 567
5-yr adds %: 5-yr adds %:
Devyani-78% 596 Devyani-53% 506
600
Sapphire-63% 500 Sapphire-52%
490 413
500
429 400
0 0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
25% 18%
16%
21% 15%
20% 16% 14%
20%
20% 18% 18% 14% 13%
16% 19% 19% 20%
12% 13% 13%
11%
15%
10%
14% 7%
13% 13% 8%
10%
6% 8% 7%
4% 5% 5%
5%
2%
0% 0%
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
50% 5
60
40% 4
40 33 30%
30 3
20% 2.3
20 23%
20% 2 1.8
17% 10%
0.9
0 0% 1
KFC Costa Vaango
ADS (INR '000) GM % Brand Contri. % 0
KFC PH Costa Vaango
160x
140x
120x
Current - 91x
100x
+1SD, 83.9x
80x
Average, 68.5x
-1SD, 53.1x
40x
20x
Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24
In Rs Mn, Unless otherwise mentioned FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
# Stores 692 938 1243 1782 2057 2352 2653
Revenue
India (Core) 9,536 17,918 25,729 29,047 34,781 41,624 50,979
India (Others) 659 1,048 2,014 2,115 3,227 5,835 8,510
International 1,153 1,874 2,234 4,400 15,843 17,398 18,985
Total Operating revenue 11,348 20,840 29,977 35,563 53,851 64,857 78,473
% Y-o-Y -25% 84% 44% 19% 51% 20% 21%
Total operating costs 5,556 10,082 14,440 18,474 27,076 33,113 39,817
Key Metrics
Free Cash flow to Firm 1,066 1,576 2,130 1,306 4,528 6,673 9,040
OCF/ EBITDA 102% 95% 97% 91% 91% 93% 92%
ROE 104% 41% 32% -1% 13% 20% 24%
ROCE 2% 17% 19% 9% 13% 17% 21%
80% 15%
68% 70% 69% 67% 69% 10.3%
70% 66% 66% 67% 9.4%
10% 7.7%
60% 10%
5%
50%
0.7%
40% 0% 3% 2%
-4% -4%
30% -2.2%
-5%
19% 20% 19%
17% -4.9%
20% 15%
-6.9%
-10%
10% 4% -9%
0% 2%
-12%
0% -15%
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
160 70
140 135 58
129 60 56 57
123 125 55
114 114 117 117
120 113
105 50 46
100 45 44 43 42
100
40 37
83 35 36
80
30
60
20
40
20 10
0 0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
90x
+1SD, 73.3x
70x
Average, 56.9x
50x
BERN Target, 72x
10x
-10x
Feb-22 Jun-22 Oct-22 Feb-23 Jun-23 Oct-23 Feb-24 Jun-24
In Rs Mn, Unless otherwise mentioned FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
# Stores 437 579 743 872 963 1066 1175
Revenue
KFC 5,897 10,350 14,529 17,157 21,006 24,839 29,156
Pizza Hut 2,217 3,709 5,214 5,185 5,679 6,268 7,201
International 2,053 3,096 2,828 3,538 4,044 4,509 4,964
Total Operating revenue 10,196 17,216 22,656 25,943 30,818 35,723 41,445
% Y-o-Y -24% 69% 32% 15% 19% 16% 16%
Total operating costs 5,853 8,888 10,965 13,221 15,471 17,476 20,187
Key Metrics
Free Cash flow to Firm 807 1,105 (6) 638 2,652 3,406 4,229
OCF/ EBITDA 124% 129% 89% 97% 100% 96% 96%
ROE -20% 6% 21% 4% 6% 10% 12%
ROCE -2% 9% 10% 8% 9% 12% 13%
6.0 GHG 6.0
Turnover Scope 1+2
rate emissions Independent
5.0 Differently
5.0 abled
Independent workforce Women
Differently
abled workforce
4.0 4.0 Waste
workforce Water Women on generated
intensity BoD
Women on Women
3.0 BoD workforce 3.0 GHG
Scope 1+2
emissions
2.0 2.0
Waste Turnover Water
generated rate intensity
1.0
1.0
-
- - 1 2 3 4 5
- 1 2 3 4 5
Importance of criteria
Importance of criteria
6.0
4.8
Water 5
Women on BoD intensity 4.4 4.5
Women 4.1
5.0 workforce
Differently 4.1
4 4.0
abled Waste 3.8
workforce 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6
4.0 generated
Turnover
rate Independe GHG 3
Scope 1+2 2.8
3.0
emissions
2.0 2
1.0
1
-
- 1 2 3 4 5
Importance of criteria 0
E S G ESG
2 2
1 1 Water &
waste
mgmt.
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
Importance of criteria Importance of criteria
6 5 Biz. ethics
& Gov.
4.5
Emissions
5 Food
4
Emissions Safety
Food 3.5
4 Safety
3 Human
Water & capital
3 Water & 2.5 waste
waste
Biz. ethics mgmt.
mgmt. 2
& Gov.
2
1.5
Human 1
1 capital
0.5
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
Importance of criteria Importance of criteria
4.8 5.0
5
4.5
4.3
4.5 4.1
3.9 4.0
4
3.9
3.5 3.5 3.4
3 2.8 3.0 3.0
2.6
0
E S G ESG
FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Operations Balance Sheet Rs Mn
# Stores - Westside 214 232 248 265 284 Cash & Equivalents 863 2,976 10,926 27,435 52,112
# Stores - Zudio 352 545 725 900 1,060 Inventories 13,612 15,827 22,243 30,127 39,756
Income statement Rs Mn Trade Receivables 344 817 1,214 1,644 2,169
Revenues 82,420 123,751 183,736 248,862 328,401 Other current assets 8,959 11,478 17,042 23,083 30,460
Growth(%) 83.2% 50.1% 48.5% 35.4% 32.0% Current assets 23,778 31,099 51,424 82,288 124,497
Revenue- Westside 43,636 52,477 63,255 72,336 82,831 PP&E 8,712 11,463 14,215 15,911 16,706
Revenue- Zudio 35,371 62,018 107,125 157,629 218,644 ROU 35,502 12,021 14,871 17,665 20,274
COGS 47,197 69,589 101,483 137,454 181,386 Goodwill 1,055 1,015 1,015 1,015 1,015
Gross Profit 35,223 54,162 82,253 111,408 147,015 Other Non - current assets 11,768 16,020 22,700 29,953 38,811
Gross Profit Margin (%) 42.7% 43.8% 44.8% 44.8% 44.8% Total Assets 80,815 71,618 104,225 146,833 201,303
Other Operating Costs 24,486 34,941 52,610 70,263 92,720 Borrowings 4,980 4,986 6,093 9,670 13,988
EBITDA 10,737 19,221 29,643 41,145 54,296 Lease Liability 39,662 12,544 15,394 18,188 20,797
EBITDA margin 13.0% 15.5% 16.1% 16.5% 16.5% Trade payables 6,652 7,739 13,603 18,425 24,314
Depreciation 4,937 6,711 4,384 5,556 6,723 Other Current Liabilities 2,128 3,583 5,320 7,206 9,509
Other Income 2,609 2,893 4,295 5,817 7,676 Total Current Liabilities 10,940 15,415 21,552 32,096 44,916
Interest 3,692 3,191 1,908 2,379 2,950 Other Non- Current liabilities 764 1,739 2,582 3,498 4,616
Income from JVs and Associates 835 1,236 1,528 2,284 2,903 Total Current and Non-Current Liabilities 54,186 30,592 42,992 56,988 73,224
PBT 5,551 13,448 29,174 41,311 55,202 Equity share capital 356 356 356 356 356
Net Income 3,937 14,775 21,880 30,983 41,402 Other equity 26,274 40,670 60,877 89,490 127,724
Net Income growth(%) 275.3% 48.1% 41.6% 33.6% Shareholder equity 26,630 41,026 61,232 89,845 128,080
EPS ( Rs) 11.1 41.6 61.5 87.2 116.5 Total Liabilities 80,815 71,618 104,225 146,833 201,303
Cash flow statement Rs Mn
Cashflow from Operations 10,232 17,695 23,398 31,272 41,735 Key Ratios
Cashflow from Investments (5,999) (9,274) (12,463) (12,825) (14,352) ROE 16% 44% 43% 41% 38%
Capex (6,449) (6,242) (5,783) (5,572) (5,494) ROCE 8% 20% 36% 36% 35%
Cashflow from Financing (6,511) (6,145) (2,985) (1,937) (2,706) OCF / EBITDA 95% 92% 79% 76% 77%
Debt repayment, net of borrowings 377 981 1,950 4,493 5,436 Valuation
Repayment of lease (1,397) (2,775) (1,353) (1,681) (2,025) Target price implied P/E 731 195 132 93 70
Net Increase in Cash (2,279) 2,276 7,950 16,510 24,677 Target price implied EV/EBITDA 267 149 97 70 53
FCF 3,783 11,453 17,615 25,700 36,241 Target price implied P/B 108 70 47 32 22
FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Operations Balance Sheet Rs Mn
# EBOs (Lifestyle brands) 2,650 2,679 2,733 2,924 3,129 Cash & Equivalents 7,011 4,624 -1,285 -3,463 -1,677
# Stores - Pantaloons 431 417 442 468 496 Inventories 42,144 45,053 49,403 54,091 59,316
Income statement Rs Mn Trade Receivables 8,864 12,788 14,023 15,353 16,837
Revenues 124,179 139,959 153,470 168,034 184,266 Other current assets 13,682 24,457 26,818 29,363 32,199
Growth(%) 52.6% 12.7% 9.7% 9.5% 9.7% Current assets 71,701 86,922 88,958 95,344 106,675
Revenue- Madhura 76,080 77,937 80,829 87,577 95,566
Revenue- Pantaloons 41,110 43,283 48,171 53,555 59,597 PP&E 10,091 13,375 11,955 14,989 17,428
COGS 55,520 62,672 68,722 75,244 82,513 ROU 36,234 43,068 31,999 21,391 10,623
Gross Profit 68,659 77,286 84,747 92,790 101,753 Goodwill 37,812 62,187 62,187 62,187 62,187
Gross Profit Margin (%) 55.3% 55.2% 55.2% 55.2% 55.2% Other Non - current assets 14,575 18,559 20,186 21,939 23,893
Other Operating Costs 53,723 62,760 65,767 70,883 77,731 Total Assets 170,413 224,111 215,285 215,850 220,806
EBITDA 14,936 14,526 18,981 21,906 24,022 Borrowings 23,055 42,052 40,224 39,925 40,134
EBITDA margin 12.0% 10.4% 12.4% 13.0% 13.0% Lease Liability 42,673 52,462 42,169 35,736 30,740
Depreciation 12,270 16,552 16,768 17,860 19,467 Trade payables 38,461 41,357 44,343 48,180 52,834
Other Income 1,165 2,376 2,605 2,852 3,128 Other Current Liabilities 15,224 16,136 17,694 19,373 21,245
Interest 4,724 8,766 7,959 7,147 6,658 Total Current Liabilities 70,875 86,015 90,004 96,416 103,996
PBT (824) (8,289) (3,013) (121) 1,153 Other Non- Current liabilities 17,539 24,894 26,659 28,561 30,682
Net Income (595) (7,359) (3,013) (121) 1,095 Total Current and Non-Current Liabilities 136,953 176,901 171,088 171,775 175,635
EPS ( Rs) (0.6) (7.3) (3.0) (0.1) 1.1 Equity share capital 9,488 10,150 10,150 10,150 10,150
Cash flow statement Rs Mn Other equity 23,972 37,060 34,047 33,925 35,021
Cashflow from Operations 7,943 11,893 19,407 23,019 25,516 Shareholder equity 33,460 47,210 44,197 44,075 45,171
Cashflow from Investments (15,808) (42,926) (5,708) (11,220) (12,256) Total Liabilities 170,413 224,111 215,285 215,850 220,806
Capex (15,975) (31,461) (2,987) (8,287) (8,987)
Cashflow from Financing 11,051 28,739 (19,607) (13,977) (11,474) Key Ratios
Debt repayment, net of borrowings 18,515 26,351 (63) 1,604 2,330 OCF / EBITDA 53% 82% 102% 105% 106%
Repayment of lease (8,910) (9,955) (11,586) (8,434) (7,147) Valuation
Net Increase in Cash 3,186 (2,294) (5,908) (2,178) 1,786 Target price implied EV/EBITDA 17 17 13 12 11
FCF (8,032) (19,568) 16,420 14,732 16,530 Target price implied P/B 8 6 6 6 6
FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Operations Balance Sheet Rs Mn
# Stores 1,928 2,991 3,395 3,792 4,191 Cash & Equivalents 2,569 1,570 3,078 2,400 4,287
Inventories 1,770 4,099 4,537 4,737 4,901
Income statement Rs Mn Other current assets 2,519 5,940 6,766 7,517 8,363
Revenues 51,582 56,541 82,562 97,459 113,450 Current assets 6,858 11,608 14,381 14,654 17,552
Growth(%) 17% 10% 46% 18% 16% PP&E 13,598 19,833 20,824 23,112 25,768
COGS 12,478 13,411 22,685 26,314 30,631 ROU 20,143 22,405 28,127 29,743 30,855
Gross Profit 39,104 43,130 59,877 71,145 82,818 Other Non - current assets 13,222 27,411 30,640 32,670 34,514
Other Operating Costs 27,589 31,695 43,529 50,484 58,427 Total Assets 53,821 81,257 93,972 100,179 108,690
EBITDA 11,516 11,435 16,348 20,661 24,392 Lease Liability 23,710 27,000 33,674 36,572 39,137
EBITDA margin 22% 20% 20% 21% 22% Trade payables 5,614 9,216 11,343 12,368 14,090
Depreciation 4,859 5,980 7,523 8,701 9,870 Other Current Liabilities 2,283 6,983 8,556 15,333 6,101
Other Income 504 419 804 975 1,134 Total Current Liabilities 10,290 19,170 23,270 31,467 24,354
Interest 2,012 2,878 4,323 4,373 4,296 Other Non- Current liabilities 1,837 15,625 14,597 4,238 9,674
PBT 4,887 4,857 5,470 8,759 11,589 Total Current and Non-Current Liabilities 33,443 58,825 68,170 68,510 69,003
Net Income 3,530 4,001 4,160 6,657 8,808 Equity share capital 1,320 1,320 1,320 1,320 1,320
Net Income growth(%) -16% 13% 4% 60% 32% Other equity 19,058 20,387 23,756 29,623 37,641
EPS ( Rs) 5.4 6.1 6.1 9.7 12.9 Shareholder equity 20,378 22,432 25,802 31,669 39,687
Total Liabilities 53,821 81,257 93,972 100,179 108,690
Cash flow statement Rs Mn Key Ratios
Cashflow from Operations 10,262 10,096 16,956 19,957 23,910 ROE 18% 19% 17% 23% 25%
Cashflow from Investments (5,949) (13,740) (7,562) (8,712) (9,572) ROCE 17% 11% 15% 19% 20%
Capex (8,382) (8,476) (7,818) (8,712) (9,572) OCF/ EBITDA 85% 85% 99% 92% 94%
Cashflow from Financing (4,264) 3,772 (7,629) (11,923) (12,451) Valuation
Debt repayment, net of borrowings 629 10,094 (95) (4,050) (4,359) Target price implied P/E 140.2x 123.8x 123.2x 77.0x 58.2x
Net Increase in Cash 49 129 1,765 (678) 1,887 Target price implied EV/EBITDA
FCF 1,879 1,620 9,138 11,244 14,338 Target price implied P/B 9.2x 6.1x 5.3x 4.9x 4.6x
FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Operations Balance Sheet Rs Mn
# Stores 357 397 439 484 529 Cash & Equivalents 284 141 521 1,728 3,521
Inventories 714 632 695 792 909
Income statement Rs Mn Other current assets 2,138 2,336 2,365 2,539 2,710
Revenues 22,782 23,918 26,359 30,611 35,123 Current assets 3,136 3,110 3,582 5,059 7,140
Growth(%) 45% 5% 10% 16% 15% PP&E 6,591 7,702 8,482 9,237 9,847
COGS 6,860 7,107 7,729 8,985 10,310 ROU 8,758 9,606 10,536 11,519 12,432
Gross Profit 15,922 16,811 18,630 21,626 24,813 Other Non - current assets 2,504 2,440 2,552 2,696 2,836
Other Operating Costs 12,181 13,118 14,809 16,548 18,903 Total Assets 20,989 22,858 25,152 28,512 32,255
EBITDA 3,740 3,693 3,822 5,078 5,910 Lease Liability 9,960 11,235 12,674 14,212 15,726
EBITDA margin 16% 15% 14% 17% 17% Trade payables 1,877 2,026 2,164 2,489 2,835
Depreciation 1,522 1,822 2,056 2,316 2,591 Other Current Liabilities 3,164 3,396 3,503 3,673 3,852
Other Income 203 185 212 244 294 Total Current Liabilities 5,041 5,422 5,667 6,162 6,687
Interest 927 1,097 1,217 1,335 1,451 Other Non- Current liabilities 329 318 353 409 470
PBT 1,495 958 760 1,670 2,163 Total Current and Non-Current Liabilities 15,330 16,975 18,693 20,784 22,883
Net Income 1,116 692 576 1,269 1,644 Equity share capital 312 312 312 312 312
Net Income growth(%) 2835% -38% -17% 120% 30% Other equity 5,347 5,571 6,147 7,416 9,060
EPS ( Rs) 7.2 4.4 3.7 8.2 10.6 Shareholder equity 5,659 5,883 6,459 7,728 9,372
Total Liabilities & Equity 20,989 22,858 25,152 28,512 32,255
Cash flow statement Rs Mn Key Ratios
Cashflow from Operations 3,485 3,396 3,779 4,883 5,609 ROE 22% 12% 9% 16% 18%
Cashflow from Investments (2,653) (1,845) (1,986) (2,124) (2,128) ROCE 17% 12% 11% 27% 28%
Capex (2,691) (2,154) (2,198) (2,368) (2,422) OCF/ EBITDA 93% 92% 99% 96% 95%
Cashflow from Financing (981) (1,492) (1,413) (1,552) (1,687) Valuation
Debt repayment, net of borrowings 60 320 - - - Target price implied P/E 100.3x 161.7x 193.2x 87.7x 67.7x
Net Increase in Cash (149) 59 380 1,207 1,793 Target price implied EV/EBITDA 30.0x 30.3x 29.3x 22.1x 19.0x
FCF 795 1,241 1,582 2,515 3,187 Target price implied P/B 19.6x 18.9x 17.2x 14.4x 11.9x
FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Operations Balance Sheet Rs Mn
# Stores 1,243 1,782 2,057 2,352 2,653 Cash & Equivalents 851 1,808 813 2,017 3,659
Inventories 1,290 1,310 2,154 2,594 3,217
Income statement Rs Mn Other current assets 957 1,739 1,804 1,860 1,997
Revenues 29,977 35,563 53,851 64,857 78,473 Current assets 3,099 4,857 4,772 6,472 8,873
Growth(%) 44% 19% 51% 20% 21% PP&E 9,470 14,995 15,211 15,655 16,200
COGS 8,986 10,566 16,507 18,659 22,400 ROU 12,258 16,906 18,013 18,945 19,579
Gross Profit 20,991 24,997 37,344 46,198 56,074 Other Non - current assets 5,059 12,566 14,906 17,030 19,196
Other Operating Costs 14,440 18,474 27,076 33,113 39,817 Total Assets 29,885 49,325 52,901 58,102 63,847
EBITDA 6,551 6,524 10,268 13,084 16,257 Lease Liability (Current+Non-current) 14,875 19,955 21,661 23,053 23,848
EBITDA margin 22% 18% 19% 20% 21% Trade payables 2,419 3,756 4,952 5,784 7,168
Depreciation 2,788 3,848 5,416 6,160 6,991 Other Current Liabilities 1,935 3,950 3,579 5,120 4,917
Other Income 326 326 432 519 628 Total Current Liabilities 5,355 9,113 10,155 12,761 14,179
Interest 1,475 1,869 2,602 2,880 3,064 Other Non- Current liabilities 1,015 8,177 7,274 5,287 3,933
PBT 2,419 37 2,606 4,563 6,831 Total Current and Non-Current Liabilities 20,243 35,839 37,466 39,243 39,866
Net Income 2,625 -97 1,950 3,422 5,123 Equity share capital 1,205 1,206 1,206 1,206 1,206
Net Income growth(%) 69% -104% -2120% 76% 50% Other equity 8,499 9,352 11,376 14,711 19,644
EPS ( Rs) 2.3 0.4 1.7 2.8 4.1 Shareholder equity 9,642 13,486 15,436 18,858 23,981
Total Liabilities & Equity 29,885 49,325 52,901 58,102 63,847
Cash flow statement Rs Mn Key Ratios
Cashflow from Operations 6,370 5,925 9,316 12,125 14,970 ROE 32% -1% 13% 20% 24%
Cashflow from Investments (3,497) (15,509) (4,223) (4,933) (5,302) ROCE 19% 9% 13% 17% 21%
Capex (4,240) (4,619) (4,788) (5,452) (5,930) OCF/ EBITDA 97% 91% 91% 93% 92%
Cashflow from Financing (2,827) 8,893 (5,955) (5,988) (8,026) Valuation
Debt repayment, net of borrowings (609) 8,052 (812) (1,996) (1,410) Target price implied P/E 86.6x 512.8x 119.0x 72.2x 48.8x
Net Increase in Cash 51 1,051 (863) 1,204 1,642 Target price implied EV/EBITDA 38.4x 38.5x 24.5x 19.2x 15.5x
FCF 2,130 1,306 4,528 6,673 9,040 Target price implied P/B 25.0x 17.9x 15.6x 12.8x 10.1x
FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Operations Balance Sheet Rs Mn
# Stores 743 872 963 1,066 1,175 Cash & Equivalents 2,204 1,676 2,394 3,555 5,184
Inventories 993 969 1,140 1,322 1,492
Income statement Rs Mn Other current assets 1,729 987 1,150 1,315 1,525
Revenues 22,656 25,943 30,818 35,723 41,445 Current assets 4,926 3,632 4,684 6,191 8,202
Growth(%) 32% 15% 19% 16% 16% PP&E 7,706 9,624 10,559 11,581 12,620
COGS 7,407 8,109 9,690 11,143 12,896 ROU 7,915 9,818 10,774 11,371 12,048
Gross Profit 15,249 17,834 21,128 24,580 28,549 Other Non - current assets 5,394 5,327 5,255 5,181 5,091
Other Operating Costs 10,965 13,221 15,471 17,476 20,187 Total Assets 25,941 28,401 31,271 34,325 37,960
EBITDA 4,284 4,613 5,657 7,104 8,362 Lease Liability (Current+Non-current) 9,185 11,363 12,752 13,766 14,795
EBITDA margin 19% 18% 18% 20% 20% Trade payables 2,170 2,308 2,762 3,176 3,611
Depreciation 2,642 3,239 3,797 4,366 4,976 Other Current Liabilities 1,695 1,013 1,173 1,336 1,526
Other Income 311 334 407 464 539 Total Current Liabilities 5,337 4,444 5,173 5,883 6,649
Interest 869 1,009 1,098 1,211 1,331 Other Non- Current liabilities 352 318 368 398 433
PBT 1,084 699 1,169 1,992 2,595 Total Current and Non-Current Liabilities 13,401 15,003 17,055 18,675 20,364
Net Income 2,332 520 818 1,434 1,946 Equity share capital 635 637 637 637 637
Net Income growth(%) 407% -78% 57% 75% 36% Other equity 11,924 12,754 13,572 15,006 16,952
EPS ( Rs) 36.7 8.3 13.4 23.5 31.9 Shareholder equity 12,539 13,398 14,216 15,650 17,596
Total Liabilities & Equity 25,941 28,401 31,271 34,325 37,960
Cash flow statement Rs Mn Key Ratios
Cashflow from Operations 3,818 4,488 5,635 6,806 7,993 ROE 21% 4% 6% 10% 12%
Cashflow from Investments (2,036) (1,869) (1,810) (2,935) (3,226) ROCE 10% 8% 9% 12% 13%
Capex (3,825) (3,850) (2,983) (3,399) (3,765) OCF/ EBITDA 89% 97% 100% 96% 96%
Cashflow from Financing (1,948) (2,125) (2,341) (2,710) (3,138) Valuation
Debt repayment, net of borrowings (192) (209) - - - Target price implied P/E 46.2x 204.5x 126.8x 72.3x 53.3x
Net Increase in Cash (166) 493 1,484 1,161 1,630 Target price implied EV/EBITDA 22.3x 20.7x 16.9x 13.5x 11.5x
FCF (6) 638 2,652 3,406 4,229 Target price implied P/B 8.3x 7.7x 7.3x 6.6x 5.9x