Economy

Monday, December 11, 2023 8:37 AM

MOSTLY QUES ON DEBATABLE ISSUES

PRO-POOR APPROACH APPRECIATED, NEVER PORTRAY YOURSELF AS ANTI-POOR, NOR
TAKE ANTI-CAPITALIST STAND BY APPEARING AS A PURE LEFTIST

BIG PICTURE
1. HIGH FREQUENCY INDICATORS
a. Poverty
i. Since 2021, calculated using National MPI by Niti Ayog, earlier based on Poverty lines
ii. Faster decline in poverty since 2004-05
Head-Count ratio 2004-05 37%
Or Poverty ratio
2011-12 22%
iii. Niti Ayog claim for last few years - NMPI based poverty ratio has fallen from about 25% (2015-16) to
15% in 2019-21
iv. Higher share of population are accessing basic requirements like 12 indicators of NMPI
v. 1% increase in real wages could translate into 1.12% increase in PFCE, its multiplier effect could lead
to 64 bp increase in GDP
vi. HOWEVER, OUR INEQUALITY IS STILL HIGH
vii. Why govt shying away from conducting consumption expenditure survey?
1) HH Consumption Expenditure survey (HCES) 2022-23
i. Food share in Average monthly per-capita consumption expenditure (MPCE) is 46% (rural)
and 39% (urban)
ii. Expenditure on cereals = <5% of MPCE, Expenditure on high value items (eggs, fish, meat,
F&V) = >11% of MPCE
iii. Differences between item share in CPI (Retail) and item share in MPCE
iv. 9 states have numbers less than MPCE - BIMARU EXCEPT RAJASTHAN
viii. Recent poverty data in India is absolute or relative? - MPI attempt for absolute measurement of
poverty, not in comparison to others like poverty line approach

b. Unemployment
i. India Unemployment report 2024 by ILO and Institute for human development (IHD)
1) 7-8 Mn join Workforce every year
2) Working age population (15-59) proportion increased to 64%
3) Unemployment majorly a youth problem (15-29) - 83% share in Unemployed, 65% of
unemployed are educated youth
4) More educated women unemployed than educated men
5) Most jobs in 2023 informal - 90%
ii. Data from PLFS by NSSO (part of NSO) - annual data on both rural and urban UER/ER + Quarterly
surveys for urban workforce
iii. Annual data
Rural Urban Overall
2022-23 a. LFPR - 61 (M 80, W 41) a. LFPR - 50 (M 75, W 25) a. LFPR - 58 (M 78, W 37)
b. UR - 2.4 (M 2.7, W 1.8) b. UR - 5.4 (M 4.7, W 7.5) b. UR - 3.2 (M 3.3, W 2.9)
2021-22 a. LFPR - 57 (M 78, W 36) a. LFPR - 49 (M 74, W 24) a. LFPR - 55 (M 77, W 33)
b. UR - 3.2 (M 3.8, W 2.1) b. UR - 6.3 (M 5.8, W 7.9) b. UR - 4.1 (M 4.4, W 4.3)
1) Increasing trend of LFPR for both genders in both rural and urban areas
2) HOWEVER, key challenge is Women urban LFPR
3) Decreasing trend of UR for both genders in both rural and urban areas
4) HOWEVER, Urban UR higher for both genders than rural, esp. high values for women
iv. LFPR urban
Male Women Total
LFPR Q2 2023-24 73 23 48.8
LFPR - 2022-23 74 25 50
UR Q2 2023-24 6 9 6.6
UR - 2022-23 4.7 7.5 5.4
1) For Urban India - Comparing Q2 of 2023-24 with annual data of 2022-23
2) Increased UR and decreasing LFPR for women a cause of concern
v. Oct 2023 - Urban UER has fallen

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 v. Oct 2023 - Urban UER has fallen
Apr-June 2022 7.6%
Apr-June 2023 6.6%
vi. BUT still major UE in rural areas
vii. 8-10 Mn new workers join labor force every year, this will continue for at least a decade
viii. CMIE data - most dependable research agency apart from GoI source, conducts monthly surveys
(good) of about 1.7 L HH to measure UER/ER for both rural and Urban India
UER Sept 2023 7.09%
Oct 2023 10.09%
Rural UER Sept 2023 6.2%
Oct 2023 10.8%
Urban UER Sept-Oct 2023 Stagnant at 8.4%
ix. Urban UE is less of a problem, compared to rural UE. This fits well with low agri growth and lower
rural PFCE
x. Atleast 80% jobs still from Unorganised sector - poor quality of employment, somehow opposite of
govt argument that GST registered enterprise is organised sector and this sector is increasing!
xi. Enterprise with <10 hired workers = Unorganised (remember Agri is unorganised b/c family labor, not
hired)
xii. Azim Premji University claims on UE based on PLFS data - 2023 report
1) 42% UER for graduates under 25 years - mostly in urban areas then how come urban UER is
stable
xiii. Female LFPR in India < most other developing (and sometimes even under-developed) countries
1) Economic factors - HH income beyond a point then female Labor force leaves earlier,
mechanisation of female labor in agri
2) Social - patriarchal setup, safety
3) Other South-East Asian developing nations saw higher induction rate of women to labor force,
BUT NOT INDIA
4) LATEST PLFS data - some rise in FLFPR
xiv. Priorities of Govt
1) Quality job creation
2) Rural economy
3) Labor intensive industry

c. Inflation
i. Monetary policy
a. Overall contractionary - Repo Rate has remained unchanged for last 3 quarters DESPITE lower
inflation
b. Done mainly due to Inflation targeting goal - main culprit is food inflation (6.6% FY 24 and 6.8%
FY 25)
c. Concern - Monetary policy can impact mainly the demand pull inflation / Core inflation /
industrial goods. But only a limited impact on cost push inflation / food and fuel
d. CMP in India is also due to higher interest rates in developed countries, to remain an attractive
destination for investments
e. IMF Article 4 country report 2023 on India
i. ER Mgt - from Dec 2022 to 2023, Rupee-$ exchange rate has moved in a closed range or
Rupee value has fallen marginally wrt $. It implies that there is more Forex intervention by
RBI, hence the Indian exchange rate regime was re-classified from 'floating' to 'stabilised
arrangement' - CLAIM REJECTED BY RBI CITING SHORT TERM CLAIMS OF IMF
ii. Higher debt-to-GDP ratio in India - maybe >100% ratio in medium term (within 2-3 years),
INDIAN REP AT IMF HAS REJECTED THIS CITING:
1) Major part of public debt is in Rupee terms
2) The ratio was 81% in 2005-06, 84% in 2021-22, 81% in 2022-23
f. NK Singh committee recommendation - Public debt-to-GDP ratio (stock variable like wealth)
should be used as a target for fiscal mgt instead of Fiscal Deficit (flow variable like income)

d. Economic Overview of India (or MAYBE world) - Performance in terms of following indicators
i. Comparison of last decade with previous decade
Indicator 2004-2014 2014-2024
GDP gr 6.8% 5.8%
Agri GDP gr 3.5% 3.7%
CPI 8.1% 5.1%
Food inflation 9.2% 4.9%
ii. GDP growth -
1) For Q2 of 2023, Real GDP growth = 7.6%, higher than even RBI estimates
2) This is mainly contributed by the secondary sector (industry)

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 2) This is mainly contributed by the secondary sector (industry)
Q1 2023 Q2 2023
Mfg 47% 14%
Public utility 3% 10%
Construction 8% 13%
3) Surprising growth because of following factors
a) Higher growth despite higher interest rates
b) Weaker export demand
c) Higher base
4) NSO claims
a) Higher profit margins of the corporate sector (66% increase in profits)
b) Explanation - lower input costs due to relatively lower commodity prices like that of coal,
fuel etc.
5) COUNTER arguments
a) Quarterly estimates of GDP always based on limited data mainly from organised sector
b) Services sector growth is lower
i) 50% decline in growth of financial services, real estate, trade, hotels and
communication
ii) Reason - services sector more dependent on global economy
c) Lower agri growth (2.1%) - flagbearer of Covid seems to be down now, agri growth
important b/c tells lot about demand side of growth
iii. Demand side of growth
1) GDP = C + I + G + X - M
Component PFCE GFCF GFCE NX
Contribution 60% 30% 10% ~1% in
negative
Growth 4.4% (lower than term1 9.3% 3.9% (lower than term1 144.2% (
(2022-23) @ 7%) (good) @ 8%)
2) (I) = Investment expenditure is important - mostly by Government or Public Capex, positive b/c
crowding-in, multiplier effect. However, so far crowding in is not yet visible and we are hopeful
in future
3) Govt Capex is likely to benefit bigger industries (organised sector) more than smaller industries
(unorganised sector)
4) (G) = consumption goods and welfare expenditure by govt
5) Major pillar of GDP is (C) which is showing slow growth, especially from metrics of a youthful
demographics
6% Q1
3.1% Q2
a) This is a criticism of govt's higher Capex policy
b) More investment in job creation and welfare are needed to push up C
c) Reasons for slow growth of C
i) Mainly from falling rural consumption demand - NOTE low agri growth
ii) Urban demand has been stable but demand for necessities has decreased, means
that urban consumption driven by increase in consumption of premium products
like gems and jewellery
iii) Thus the C growth issue is deeper than the Quarter numbers show
iv) This may also indicate K-shaped recovery since the pandemic
6) K-shaped recovery - reasons
a) Organised sector growth is higher than unorganised sector
b) Higher increase in premium goods' consumption than basic consumption goods
c) Income inequality is on the rise - SEARCH DATA
7) Foreign Trade (NX) - 2022-23
a) 6.5% increase in Exports
b) 13% increase in Imports
c) Widening visibles' trade deficit - $ 32 Bn in 2022-23 (all-time High)
d) Due to invisibles surplus (services, incomes, transfers), CAD is not very significantly rising.
e) 2022-23 - CAD = ~2% of GDP (regarded as higher b/c <1% needed ideally), still not as high
as before and during Covid times
f) MIND - EXPORT BANS which are keeping exports lower, particularly in agri
i) -ve - higher CAD, tarnish open economy image of India
ii) +ve - need for food security
g) India can expand FTA negotiations with successful economies of SE Asia like Vietnam -
poverty below 3%, PCI 16% higher than India

2. INTERIM BUDGET
a. Not mentioned in Constitution - Vote on Account (Article 116, expenditure side) + Revenue side

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 a. Not mentioned in Constitution - Vote on Account (Article 116, expenditure side) + Revenue side
b. India's first interim budget in 1947 was presented by the first Finance Minister R.K. Shanmukham Chetty. It
addressed economic challenges caused by partition, including food grain shortage and high imports
c. Purpose of white paper?
d. VISION
i. 1947 (Third world country/LDC by WB and West) -----> 2022 (Developing by WB based on PCI) ----->
2047 (Developed aspiration)
1) NOTE Categories by WB - HIC, UMIC (China), LMIC (India), LIC
ii. 6-7 strategies for Amrit Kaal
1) Principle - REFORM, PERFORM, TRANSFORM
2) through reforms, GoI decides allocation for different sectors and schemes which ultimately
should give us results (performance) called as OUTCOME.
3) This would help India to transition from a developing to a developed country
iii. Focus area for 2024-25 (Short term strategy) OR empowering CASTES OF INDIA via Secularism in
Action - GYAN (Women, Youth, Poor and farmers)
iv. 3D strengths of India - Democracy, Demography, Diversity
e. Essence of the Budget - Inclusive growth (6 dimensions)
i. Economic growth [+ Panchamrit Goals (CoP 26)]
ii. Economic development
iii. Equal opportunity for all
iv. Geographical dimension - GoI focus has shifted from village towards HH in villages
v. Secularism in action - All individuals (not villages but HH) will have access to all resources w/o any
discrimination based on Gender, Caste, Religion and Nepotism
vi. Economic dimension - improving physical and digital infra, maintaining macro-economic stability like
inflation management
f. GDP (Governance, Development, Performance)
i. New meaning given by GoI in context of AMRIT KAAL
ii. Governance
1) GoI focus during growth process would be Good Governance based on the philosophy of Min
Govt Max Governance
2) Niti Ayog has to identify relevant areas for the govt to improve governance
iii. Development
1) GoI aims to achieve all-round dev also called as balanced development of all sectors
2) A + I + S [MII 2.0 - 27 sectors = 15 Mfg (DPIIT) + 12 Services (Dept of Commerce)]
iv. Performance -
1) GoI trying to focus on 3 elements
a) Outlay - resource allocation
b) Participation of all stakeholders
c) Outcome
2) Ultimately all policies and efforts should lead to desirable outcome for the society
g. 5 components of Interim Budget
i. Report card of the economy
1) New normal for India - 7% gr
2023-24 7.3%
2024-25 7%
2) India ahead of globe - WHY?

a) Increased mfg
i) PLI (favor for long term, see automobile where we started in assembly segment but
now in complete mfg)
ii) Reduced input costs and improved profits compared to covid phase
b) Increased construction - a) and b) reduced UR
c) All sectors except agri, hospitality services
i) REMEMBER agri 1.8%, mfg 6.7%
ii) Agri laggard mainly due to weather related conditions - shown declining trend
iii) Mfg - increasing trend (short term), mixed trend (long term)
iv) Services - decreasing trend (short term), mixed trend (long term)
v) Construction - decreasing trend (short term), mixed trend (long term)
d) Investment led recovery
e) Deft control over inflation - average CPI (Headline) in last 5 years below 6%

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 e) Deft control over inflation - average CPI (Headline) in last 5 years below 6%

3) Unemployment
a) Declining trend (given till 2022-23) - if general trend asked it is increasing after 2022-23
b) GoI conducts PLFS every quarter and calculates Unemployment. It is reported in 2 ways
i) On a quarterly basis, urban Unemployment is reported using CWS method
 Reference period is 1 week
 Any individual who works for atleast 1 hour on any particular day in last 1
week is called employed, otherwise unemployed
ii) Annual figures of Unemployment are reported for both rural and urban areas using
CWS and Usual principal and subsidiary status (UPSS) method
 Usual status (reference period = 1 year)
• UPS = Principal status >= 183 days
• USS = Subsidiary status >= 30 days - USS used for this diagram given in
Interim budget (weaker criteria)

 A person employed as UPS automatically is employed as USS. Thus they are

called employed as per UPSS.
4) Sectoral performance
a) Banking
i) Trends
GNPA (declining trend in last 5 yrs) 2019 9.07%
2023 3.2%
NNPA 2022 1.6%
2023 0.95%
PCR (provisioning coverage ratio) 2022 86.9&
2023 90.9%
ii) EASE 6.0 (2023-24) - 22 action plans under 4 themes
 Customer service
 Digital and analytics driven business improvement
 Tech and data enabled capacity building
 Enhance HR operations
b) Financial inclusion
i) PMJDY
 # A/c 50.63 Cr
 55.5% women beneficiaries
 66.8% beneficiaries in semi-urban and rural areas
ii) # Digital transactions - increasing trend in last 5 years
c) Infrastructure
i) NIP 2020
1) Encompasses all infra schemes - >9000 projects in 34 sub-sectors @ 111 L Cr
2) Priorities

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 2) Priorities
• Bharatmala - 35k + 5k km roads
• Sagarmala - Brownfield and greenfield port development
• Udan - aviation in regional centres e.g. NE India, 1.35 Cr people used
Udan services
• Railway corridors - National Rail plan 2030
• Regional Rapid Transit System = NaMo Bharat train

ii) FDI

1) Between 2005-14, FDI could not lead to job creation in mfg.

2) From 2014-23, FDI was also coming to MII sectors which contributed to job
creation in mfg
3) FDI between 2014-23 has doubled compared to 2005-14
d) Sustainable development
i) Under Bio-mfg and bio-foundry, the principles of biotechnology and automation are
used to develop env-friendly materials like Polymers, plastics, agri-inputs etc.
ii) Viability Gap Funding (VGF) for developing offshore wind energy
iii) Establishment of 100-tonne coal gasification and liquefaction facility by 2030
iv) Financial assistance to the households to establish household solar panels
1) 1 Cr HH - Upto 300 units free electricity
2) 15-18k pa/HH savings
v) Blue economy - WB defines it as sustainable utilisation of ocean resources related to
trade, tourism, fishing, TP etc.

ii. Highlights of the Budget - REVISE DATA

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 a. Quality of expenditure improving
b. Capex/GDP ratio doubled
c. Trend for both Capex/GDP ratio and Ecapex/GDP ratio consistently increasing

Trend for both Capex-FD ratio and Ecapex-FD ratio

is increasing

iii. Schemes in the Budget

1) Poverty alleviation
a) Measurement of poverty by calculating Head-count ratio = (# of BPL)/(total population)
b) In last 10 years, around 25 Cr BPL moved out of poverty
c) UP > BH > MP - in terms of reduction in # BPL

d) PM-SVANidhi
1) Central SS for Urban street vendors by MoHUA extended till 2024
2) Technical partner - SIDBI
3) Only those States/UTs which have notified Rules under Street Vendors Act, 2014
4) Collateral free working capital (Interest subsidy @ 7%)
1) 10k (1 year)
2) 20k (1.5 years)
3) 50k (3 years)
5) 57 L street vendors benefitted
e) PM JANMAN 2023
1) By MoTA for PVTG
2) To provide basic needs to PVTG under Development Action Plan for Scheduled
tribes (DAPST)
3) 11 critical interventions - Ekalavya schools, housing etc.
f) PM Vishwakarma 2023
1) By MoMSME for Artisans and craftsmen of 18 trades
2) Support
1) Toolkit upto 15k (grant)
2) Skill training for 15 days (Rs 500/day stipend)

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 2) Skill training for 15 days (Rs 500/day stipend)
3) Rs 1 L (1.5 years) - collateral free loan @ 5%
4) Rs 2 L (2.5 years) @ 5%
3) Fully funded by CG @ 13k Cr
4) 4 criteria to identify PVTG
1) Pre-agricultural level of technology
2) Low level of literacy
3) Economic backwardness
4) Declining/stagnant population
2) Youth
a) 3 Focus areas - skill, self-employment, sports
b) Self-employment
1) PM Mudra 2015
 By MoMSME for Youth operating own MSME (has own Udyam certificate with
names of owner and company)
 Collateral free loans @ Udyamimitra portal
 Shishu (<=50k), Kishor (<=5L), Tarun (<=10 L)
2) FoF scheme 2016
 SIDBI = operating agency, DPIIT monitors entire fund
 For Start-up (defined by DPIIT in 2016)
 FoF (or Mother-Daughter fund)
c) Skill
1) PM School for rising India (PM-SHRI 2022)
 By Ministry of Education
 14500 schools managed by CG/SG/UTG/Local bodies to showcase all aspects
of NEP 2020 - Quality teaching and holistic development of children
2) SKILL INDIA MISSION-2015
1) By Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship
2) To develop comprehensive framework for skill development of youth
3) Components
• PMKVY
1. Sector Skill Councils (SSC) - develop occupational standards
2. National Skills Qualifications Framework (NSQF) - categorises
qualifications based on skill
3. Recognition of Prior Learning (RPL)
• UDAAN - for J&K youth (security + skilling)
• Skills Acquisition and Knowledge Awareness for Livelihood Promotion
(SANKALP) - develop pool of trainers (WB assisted)
4) AGENCIES BACKING THE SKILL INDIA MISSION
• National Skill Development Agency (NSDA) - research related to skill
• National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC) - support to private
training partners
• Directorate General of Training (DGT) - implement skilling programme
3) Agriculture
a) PM-KISAN 2019
1) By MoAFW for ALL landholding farmers
2) Cash Rs 6000/year/HH in 3 instalments
b) PMFBY 2016 - voluntary since 2021
c) e-NAM 2016
1) APMC Mandi and Private market yards
2) Single trading license across state
3) Single point levy of market fee
4) Provisions of e-Trading
5) Implemented by Small Farmer Agribusiness Consortium (SFAC)
d) PM Scheme for Agro-Marine Processing and Development of Agro-Processing Clusters
(PMSAMPADA) 2016
1) By MoFPI
2) Target - Modern infrastructure with efficient supply chain management from farm
gate to retail outlet
3) Financial Support for following components
1) Integrated Cold Chain and Value Addition Infrastructure
2) Creation/ Expansion of Food Processing and Preservation Capacities
3) Infrastructure for Agro Processing Clusters
4) Food Safety & Quality Assurance Infrastructure
5) Human Resources and Institutions
e) PM FORMALISATION OF MICRO FOOD PROCESSING ENTERPRISES SCHEME (PM-FME):
2020
1) By Ministry of Food Processing Industries (MoFPI)
2) Financial Support for following components
1) To Cooperatives, FPOs to establish common processing facilities = Rs 3 Cr

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 1) To Cooperatives, FPOs to establish common processing facilities = Rs 3 Cr
(SUBSIDISED LOAN)
2) Individuals/SHGs/NGOs to establish new units = Rs 10 Lakh (SUBSIDISED
LOAN)
3) Seed capital per member of SHG for working capital and purchase of small
tools = Rs 40k (GRANT)
4) Training on Food Processing to beneficiaries
5) Training on Food Processing Entrepreneurship Development Programme
6) The scheme provides 50% financial grant for Branding and Marketing Support
to groups of FPOs/ SHGs/ Cooperatives
f) Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana (PMMSY)
1) It was launched as a part of the Aatmanirbhar Bharat scheme to increase the
contribution of the fisheries sector to Agricultural GVA
2) The government aims to double aqua export under PMMSY
3) It is being implemented in all coastal States and Union Territories of India
4) The Interim Budget 2024 provided for the establishment of five aquaparks under
the scheme
4) Women empowerment
a) Female enrolment in HEI increased by 28% in last 10 years
b) Female enrolment in STEM = 43% of total enrolled
c) 70% houses under PM Awas Yojana in rural areas = women/joint
1) Indira Awas Yojana launched in 1985 which was merged under 'Housing for all 2024'
target of GoI
2) HFA 2024 is trying to promote housing in both rural and urban areas through PMAY
3) One of the efforts of GoI is to provide ownership of the house either to women or
promote joint ownership to both men and women in the family
d) Lakhpati Didi
1) Implemented by MoRD - SHG is formed by rural women interested in a particular
activity - like if interested in flying drones, receive training, purchase drones and
become Drone Didi SHG
2) GoI provides 3 types of assistance
1) Education
2) Skill
3) Finance - upto 5L collateral free, interest free loan to the SHG
3) Various agri and non-agri related activities like operating drones, providing basic
health awareness, providing basic banking services are being undertaken through
Lakhpati Didi

h. Key data points from Budget

i. Nominal gr in GDP - 10.5% for 2024-25, considering inflation rate of 4-4.5% we get real GDP growth
rate of 6-6.5%
ii. Expenditure
1) RE - 36.5 L Cr (76%)
2) CE - 11.1 L Cr (24%) - increasing since last 5 years
iii. Debt
1) 3 components of Govt liability
a) Internal (TB, G.Sec, Monetised deficit by RBI via WMA) + external (grants, loans from MDB
and countries)
b) Public a/c liabilities (NSSF, PF)
c) EBR liabilities (extra budgetary resources i.e. borrowing by PSUs)
2) Sources of borrowing
a) Market borrowings (G.Sec) > Securities against Small savings > T. Bills > Others
b) Main focus on long term borrowings
c) Internal > External borrowings

3) FD - 5.9% (BE), 5.8% (RE) for current FY, 5.1% for FY 25

4) Debt to GDP ratio (BE) - General govt = 82.4% (reducing), CG = 57.2% (reducing), FRBM = 40%

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 4) Debt to GDP ratio (BE) - General govt = 82.4% (reducing), CG = 57.2% (reducing), FRBM = 40%
for CG

iv. Tax
1) Tax to GDP to cross 18% in FY 24
2) Tax buoyancy - 1.2 in current year (increasing trend since last 5 years)
3) Gross tax revenue = 11.6% GDP
4) Direct tax collection
a) 6.6% GDP
b) 3X in last decade
c) Tax refunds faster from 93 days to 10 days
d) 1.7 L Cr in 2023-24
e) Outstanding DT demand foregone - 1 Cr taxpayers benefit
i) Upto 2010 - less than or equal to 25k (2010 = year of record modernisation in GoI)
ii) 2011-15 - less than or equal to 10k
5) Indirect tax
a) 5% GDP
b) Overall customs, excise, CGST to yield 16.22 L Cr next year
v. Sources of income - Borrowing (28%) - income tax (19%) - GST (18%) - Corporate tax (17%)
vi. Allocations
1) Village
a) MGNREGA - 86 K Cr = 2023-24 (RE) = 2024-25 (BE)
b) PMKISAN - 60 k Cr (unchanged)
c) FFF - Food (2.05 L Cr), Fuel (0.12 L Cr), Fertiliser (1.4 L Cr) - all reducing amid lower PDS
offtake, easing global fertiliser prices
d) PMAY-R - 2 Cr new houses in next 5 years, above 2.95 Cr target of 2024
2) Social sector
a) Increased allocation for PM-SHRI, PM POSHAN
b) Lakhpati Didis - now 3 Cr vs 2 Cr LD earlier
c) Extension of PM-JAY to all ASHA, Anganwadi workers
3) Green push
a) 300 Units free electricity for HH with Rooftop solar
b) VGF for Offshore Wind plants
c) Mandatory blending of Compressed biogas with Piped NG (PNG) and CNG
4) Defence
a) 6.2 L Cr = 13% of budget outlay
b) Capex increased to 1.72 L Cr from 1.62 L Cr
i. Some missed targets visible from Revised estimates of current year
i. Capex 9.5 L Cr vs planned 10 L Cr
ii. Disinvestment - 30 k Cr (RE) vs 51 k Cr (BE)
iii. 6.4% shortfall in meeting Education expenditure target
iv. 10.9% shortfall in meeting Health expenditure target
v. Shortfall in expenditure targets in core schemes like PMGSY, PMAY, PMGSY, PMABHIM, SBM, Mission
Shakti
j. If you are the Revenue secretary, what are the three suggestions you will give to the finance minister
regarding the budget?
i. Cure inverted duty structure
ii. Direct tax code
iii. Reducing cess% of GTR
k. What are the different ways by which a government raises money? - debt (internal, external), taxes, Non-tax
revenue, disinvestment
l. Fiscal federalism
i. Are you aware of the RBI study on state budgets?
1) States contribution to general govt parameters

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 Revenue > 33%
Expenditure 60% of which
RE 83% (84.3% Centre)
CE 17% (15.6% Centre)
2) State FD = 2.9% of GDP ratio (2023-24 - BE)
3) States debt to GDP ratio = 29.5% (higher than 20% FRBM)
ii. How can one guard against imprudent schemes by states? Carrot and stick
iii. There is a perception that transfers from richer states are funding profligacy in poorer ones. Is it true?
m. Fiscal policy
i. Fairly well rise in taxation - GST, Direct Taxes
ii. Govt expenditure - Increasing Capex, subsidies remain stable but some are rising like food subsidy
(PMGKAY, highest subsidy burden)
iii. Disinvestment policy - stabilised after Air India, MIND - it is not good if occurs in sectors which provide
some merit good/public good like Banking
iv. Challenge - poor PFCE, govt could have tried tax breaks, stagnant MGNREGA expenditure by GoI
n. Capex
a. Why has India not been able to fulfil its CAPEX targets?

3. INDIA and GLOBE

a. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal - we will impose Reciprocatory tariffs if other nations impose NTBs against
India first
b. Is world economy under recession?
c. Some terms
a. Offshoring - moving business to another country
b. Outsourcing - work is contracted to external organisation
c. Friendshoring/Ally shoring - Moving business from geopolitical power to friendly power
d. Nearshoring - Relocating business to nearby countries esp. bordering countries
e. Reshoring/Inshoring/Onshoring - Transfer business operations back home
d. Why Indian economy resilient when world economy slowing down?
i. Exports of hi-tech goods and services like mobile handsets, drugs and pharmaceutical products as well
as IT services where India has been gaining global market share since 2017.
ii. Broad range of professional services like accounting, legal and R&D, in addition to Global Capability
Centres which are service delivery centres for MNCs.
iii. India's impressive digital public infrastructure for hosting sectors like fintech, E-Commerce, ed-tech
and logistics
iv. Deft inflation control
v. Public Capex push ----> healthy growth of construction and mfg
vi. Some may wonder how digitisation will create more jobs than it eliminates through technology
advances. By opening up opportunities like better access to newer markets, Digitisation can increase
GDP growth by more than it raises labour productivity, leading to net job creation.
e. BIT
i. What is it?
ii. India status after Model BIT in 2016
1) Many countries against India's insistence on favouring 'exhaustion of local remedies' before
international arbitration, citing judicial delays
2) EoDB report 2020 - India ranks 163/190 in ease of enforcing contracts
3) 6 BIT still in force, 68 BIT suspended by India with a request to re-negotiate based on Model BIT
2016
f. CBAM or Carbon Tax
i. To be imposed by EU from Jan 2026 on imports from 7 carbon intensive sectors - steel, Aluminium,
iron, etc.
ii. India exports ~ $8.2 Bn of steel and Aluminium, about 27% exports of these sectors go to EU
iii. 1st Phase of implementation already started from Oct 2023 onwards
i. Involves reporting of Carbon emissions during production stage by these 7 sectors
ii. India complained against CBAM in WTO b/c it violates the special and Differential treatment for
developing nations
iii. Can retard international trade
iv. Against CBDR in env justice
g. Recent trends in FDI
i. Why India receiving high FDI? Recently some development in US led to pull out of money by investors,
what was it?
ii. Fall in 2022-23 by 16%
2021-22 $84 Bn - higher base effect, Massive EMP by
developed nations like Quantitative Easing
2022-23 $71 Bn
iii. FDI in India comes mostly in services sector as compared to industries - software, financial services,

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 iii. FDI in India comes mostly in services sector as compared to industries - software, financial services,
b/c it is easier to invest in services via the equity market route, also services sector in India has
experienced higher growth, HOWEVER FDI via equity route in services does less contribution to job
creation and tech transfers
h. Summary of G20 Delhi declaration
a. India-Middle East-Europe corridor (IMEC) - proposal for infrastructure network between them
through a combination of railway tracks and shipping routes, provide an alternate trade route to the
Suez
b. Global Biofuel alliance (GBA) - worldwide development and deployment of sustainable biofuels among
group of 30 countries
i. WTO
a. WTO?
i. 164 + 2 members
ii. Reduce TB and NTB, GATT lacked Dispute resolution mechanism and was only applicable to
goods, not services and IPR
b. What is Dispute settlement Mechanism (DSM)? How it works?
i. A binding 2-tier process with a panel and Appellate body (AB)
ii. AB - Currently no judges - 7 judge body originally Quorum of 3 judges
c. What is India doing regarding it?
d. Which countries does India have FTA with?
e. What are the challenges?
i. US blocking appointments to Dispute resolution body
ii. Develop vs Developing
iii. Structural issue
f. Is the WTO relevant?
i. India rise after 1995 - benefitted from rule-based order
ii. Cure structural ones
iii. Peace clause - temporary
g. 13th Ministerial conference
i. Highest decision making body - based on consensus
ii. @ Abu Dhabi, UAE
iii. Outcomes?
a) Accession of Comoros and Timor-Leste endorsed
b) e-Commerce moratorium
i) Bans countries from applying customs duties on electronic transmissions till March
31 2026 or 14th MC, whichever is earlier
ii) While customs duties were applied on the physical imports of these digitalized
products, their online imports escape customs duties
iii) India losing more than 500 Mn pa due to moratorium
c) Fisheries subsidies
i) 12th MC - prohibit subsidies for illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing
ii) Now they are negotiating to curb subsidies that contribute to overfishing and
overcapacity to promote sustainable fishing
iii) India champions a balanced approach on the principle of CBDR
1) India, being a low fisheries subsidizer, emphasizes that advanced fishing
nations have historically provided substantial subsidies and contributed to fish
stock depletion.
2) Hence, they should bear more responsibility based on the 'polluter pay
principle'.
iv) India has proposed that:
1) developing countries be allowed to give subsidies to their poor fishermen to
catch fish till EEZs or up to 200 nautical miles from the shore
2) Rich countries engaged in fishing beyond this zone should stop providing any
kind of subsidies for the next 25 years.
d) No agreement on permanent solution to PSH subsidies
h. Earlier WTO was very much active and countries also pushed for free trade etc., but recently regional
trading blocs have emerged. What is the reason behind this failure of WTO?
i. Lack of consensus
i. Subsidy debate at WTO
i. Indian subsidy per farmer = $300 vs $40000 in US
ii. De-minimis ceiling - govt support should not exceed 5% of total product value, 10% for
developing countries
iii. If ceiling breached, invoke Peace clause (negotiated at Bali Ministerial 2013) - India wants a
permanent solution to agri subsidy issue
iv. Cairns Group (Thailand + 19 countries) - raise concern about India's Public stockholding
programmes

4. Niti Ayog
a. 'Planning commission was a master of resources, but not a master of ideas'
b. Why PC abolished?

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 b. Why PC abolished?
i. Planning exercise becoming irrelevant for market economy
ii. Limited role in planning and implementing public sector investments
iii. Restrictive role in PPP
c. Importance
a. Think tank of govt - policy suggestions are contained in NITI’s document ‘Strategy for New India @ 75’
b. Policy formulation - POSHAAN ABHIYAAN, Ayushman Bharat, SATH – ‘Sustainable Action for
Transforming Human Capital’ program implemented in 3 States
c. Foster innovation - Atal Innovation Mission (AIM) = flagship initiative
d. Promoting Federalism
1) Cooperative Federalism - horizontal relationship between union and states and shows neither is
above the other, envisages that CG/SG agencies undertake government functions jointly rather
than exclusively
a) The NITI Forum for North East for tangible sectoral proposals' implementation in
partnership with the North East council
b) initiatives for island development under overall guidance of MHA
c) Himalayan States Regional Council
2) Competitive Federalism - vertical relation b/w centre and states where states compete among
themselves
a) sectoral indices on water, education, health, EoDB and SDGs
b) Delta rankings in ‘Aspirational Districts Program’

5. Finance commission
a. Let us talk about Finance Commission. What is Finance Commission?
i. Constitutional body under Article 280
ii. Responsible for prescribing how to divide net proceeds of taxes between Union and the states
b. What are the terms of reference for the 16th Finance Commission?
i. Distribution of net proceeds of taxes between Centre and states, and its allocation between the states
ii. Principles that should govern grants-in-aid to states by Centre out of CFI
iii. Measures needed to augment CFI of states to supplement resources of local govts based on State FC
recommendations
iv. Any other matters that President refers to it
c. Why do we need to redistribute funds?
i. Envisaged as a balancing wheel of Fiscal federalism by the Constitution
ii. States = 40% receipts = 60% expenditure, hence FC becomes important
d. Tax devolution to states- need based instead of making it performance based. Doesn't it disincentivise the
states which are performing well ?
i. Larger point here is that in our growth story, every citizen is responsible towards each other
(Fraternity), hence in the short run, need based devolution is key to reducing inter-state inequality
ii. States which are performing well are also in many ways dependent on underperforming states -
migration of skilled and unskilled labor, raw materials for industries, consumption demand for goods
iii. It is a collective aspiration and not pitching one state against other
e. What can be done so that the ones doing good don't have to suffer?
i. Increased Weightage for efficiency criteria in horizontal devolution (fiscal efforts and demographic
performance)
ii. Fix states' share in cess and surcharges
iii. Fix % of cess and surcharges in GTR
f. South Indian States alleged discrimination by centre, your take?
i. Share of cess, surcharges

g. Union Finance Minister claimed: “whatever the Finance Commission has recommended [as the rate of
devolution], I follow it to the last word”. How robust is this claim?
i. The average of the annual shares of devolution was 31.1% during the 13th FC period (32%), 40.3%
during the 14th FC period (42%) and 38.1% during the 15th FC period (41%)
ii. If we add cesses and surcharges to the net proceeds — to create a revised divisible pool — the share
of devolution would fall even further to 28% during the 13th FC period, 35.1% during the 14th FC

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 of devolution would fall even further to 28% during the 13th FC period, 35.1% during the 14th FC
period and 31.7% during the 15th FC period

6. $5 Trillion for India

a. Why 5Trillion?
b. By when is it achievable? - requires double digit growth, challenging till 2025, maybe 2027 as per RBI Deputy
Governor, 2027-28 according to FM
c. $30 Tn by 2047 - Niti Aayog
d. How to achieve this?
i. Agriculture - slowdown, rural distress, remove disguised unemployment, don’t miss this bright sector
(resilience proven during Covid)
ii. Industries - WLFPR, Labor codes implementation, employment in labor-intensive industries, product
exports over part exports, MSME
iii. Services - tourism sector, hospitality, ed-tech, E-commerce etc.
e. Geopolitical challenges in Viksit Bharat Sankalp

7. Demonetisation
a. Do you think monetisation was a good step?
b. So it was not successfully implemented, it couldn't achieve its purpose, you still support it?
c. Recently, RBI withdrew ₹ 2000, if there is a plan to withdraw ₹500 would you be supporting?
d. How will the liquidity crisis could be resolved in such a case?
e. If you are reintroducing a currency already withdrawn like ₹1000, what is the entire point of
demonetisation.
f. How do you think by withdrawing ₹500 black money could be curbed, they can still change it for new
currency right?

8. GST
a. Objective - raise tax, tax base, ONOT, reduce cascading, transparency in tax incidence
b. Taxes subsumed, govt revenue sources - CENVAT, SLVAT, CVD, Luxury tax, entertainment tax, Octroi tax
c. Achievements of GST
i. Improved indirect tax, tax base (both doubled by 2022)
ii. Improved growth of States' indirect tax revenue (14.8% vs 9% pre-GST)
d. Is GST violating the federal structure in India? Has not it taken away rights of states?
i. Not violated as ultimate goal of GST is not curtailing states' revenue but public well-being
ii. Adequate provisions in favor of states
1) GST Council - feedback based taxation
2) GST Compensation + 50 year interest free loans
3) SC - CG, SG have equal power to make GST related laws
iii. Freedom of Inter state trade and commerce
e. 6 left-out items under GST, your take?
i. Fuel = base + excise + VAT + freight + dealer commission
ii. Should be kept out of GST, affect fiscal position of govt
iii. Need - diversification and strong supply chains to reduce inflation
f. In USA, states have different tax laws and they have ultimate taxing powers. In India there is an integrated
tax. Why? Which fiscal federalism is stronger?
i. Systems different
g. What is the share of states in GST council?
h. Has any resolution been passed that required voting in the council?
i. What is the share of Union in GST council? What is the majority required to pass a decision?
j. Any reforms that you suggest in GST council? (I said consensus)
i. More often meeting
ii. Conflictual decisions of State Appellate bodies
iii. Ocean and Sun
iv. Rationalise rates
v. IT - tax evasion
k. Consensus cannot be a law. How will you enforce it?
l. Has GST benefitted small businesses? Their issues and what can be done?
m. Exemption based on turnover
n. Has GST impacted the power of CM to levy and collect Sales tax ?

9. Inequality
a. Is inequality increasing in India?
b. Why so much inequality?
c. What is Gini Coefficient?

10. Misc
a. As a Chemical engineer, tell me where do u see our economy at 2047?
b. We have some ministries at central level, even if those subjects fall in state list. Why, what's the need,
should we do away with them?

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 should we do away with them?
c. How to promote financial inclusion?
d. Special category status
i. What is SCS, and why is Bihar demanding Special Category Status?
e. Longer working hours
i. Current working hours in India? ~ 48 hours (9 to 5 jobs on 6 days)
ii. Is it any different from other nations?
1) Developed - Germany 34, Japan 37
2) Neighbours - Pakistan and Bangladesh at 47, Bhutan 51, Sri Lanka 36
iii. Do we need longer working hours, say 70 hours as was recently highlighted?
1) NOT REALISTIC working 70 hours a week? - Working 14 hours a day for 5 days does not include
1-2 hours of travel
2) Plight of women - increased working hours in formal setting + unpaid HH work
iv. Will longer working hours compensate for less productivity in India?
1) NOTE First - Different countries work different hours, hence productivity measurement suitable
per hour and not per worker
2) Productivity bridge between nations cannot be solely bridged by increasing working hours as
shown by data in 2017
Productivity compared to Indian worker Solution in terms of working hours increase
Germany 8.7X 52 hours a day (IMPOSSIBLE)
China 1.44X 66 hours a week
v. How to increase output and employment?
1) By increasing exports to cater to global demand
2) Improve strength and dexterity of workforce by investing in Health and skilling
3) To expand the domestic market — and thus aggregate demand
4) If food can be produced at lower cost, real income of majority HH will rise ---> spend more on
non-agri foods, other G&S ---> demand generation ----> spur production
vi. Related term - Right to disconnect - Australia to introduce laws to fine employees if they contact
employees outside working hours, this stops employees from working unpaid overtime
f. S. Venkitaramanan - RBI Governor during 1991 BoP crisis
a. Recently passed away
b. CAD swelled to 3% of GDP then - speculations that India might default on external payment
obligations
c. $600 Mn raised in hard currencies by sending Gold reserves of 67 Tonnes to Banks of England and
Switzerland. For the RBI to have used its gold to stave off a default was an act of courage
d. Import compression measure were taken to bridge the CAD, which successfully
flipped from a high of 3 percent in 1990-91 to a mere 0.3 percent of GDP in 1991-92
g. Failure of many airlines in India
a. High aviation turbine fuel price, high VAT imposed over it, rupee depreciation to dollar leading to
higher maintenance costs to companies which leased out planes, lower profitability due to fluctuating
demand

AGRICULTURE
1. Land reforms
i. Ceiling reforms vs Consolidation reforms
1) Ceiling reforms
a) For equitable ownership of land
b) Leads to better incentive with the small landowners to increase agricultural production
c) J&K, WB, South Korea
d) Politically difficult
2) Consolidation
a) To consolidate very small landholdings and scattered landholdings
b) Gives benefits of economies of scale - productive use of inputs
ii. Farm size productivity debate
1) Whether smaller landholdings are always less productive? - not always
2) Both extremes in land size are bad - smaller ones lack economics of scale, bigger ones are diverted
away from agri for industries
iii. Modern Land reforms
1) Modernisation of land records - PM-SVAMITVA at Centre
a) Only concern = digitisation done by data entry operators unaware of agri in India
b) Need professionals in association with village admn
2) Land acquisition for public purpose
a) LAAR, 2013 - too much benefit to project affected persons (PAPs) and land losers
b) 2015 - Amendment bill to this act brought - it relaxed LAAR norms for selected sectors like
defence, rural infra, industrial corridors etc. thus considered anti-poor
c) Bill lapsed in NDA-1, not revived in NDA-2

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 c) Bill lapsed in NDA-1, not revived in NDA-2

2. Agri Price Policy

i. Farmer protest
ii. What are their demands / 12 point agenda?
1) A law to guarantee MSP for all 22 crops, MSP determination using MS Swaminathan commission
report - can increase MSP by 25-30%
2) Full debt waiver for farmers and labourers
3) Implementation of LAAR 2013 - return consent from farmers before acquisition, compensation at 4
times the collector rate
4) Punishment for perpetrators of Oct 2021 Lakhimpur Kheri killings
5) India should withdraw from WTO and freeze all FTA
6) Pension for farmers, farm labourers
7) Compensation for farmers who died in Delhi protest, job for family member
8) Scrap electricity amendment act 2020 - WHAT IS IT?
9) 200 days in MGNREGA
10) Strict penalty, fines on companies producing fake seeds, pesticides and fertilizers
11) National commission for spices such as chilly and turmeric - WHY?
12) Ensure rights of indigenous people over water, forest and land
iii. How should govt handle the issue?
1) MSP legal guarantee is not logical to go ahead
2) Persuade farmers in the interest of nation
3) Go for Minimum income support (MIS) in combination with phase-out of water, fertiliser and
electricity subsidies ---> CROP DIVERSIFICATION POSSIBLE
4) Improve market access to both Indian and Global ones
5) Currently subsidy regime is more consumer oriented than producer (farmer) oriented
6) Proactive talks - do not label as anti-nationals
7) Precautionary measures desirable but tear gas bombs can escalate situation
8) Govt promoted cooperatives can buy tur, urad, masur, maize and cotton at MSP with no limit on qty
9) Explore Price Deficiency Payment
a) No interference with market forces of demand and supply
b) Formalisation in market - farmers will demand receipts from buyers on qty and price
c) Diversification of market - farmers only need receipt and can sell outside APMC too
iv. MSP - support, will encourage rural revival amid lower agri growth, millets MSP can be boosted (eco + env
benefits)
1) 23 crops under the current MSP regime cover only 28% of the value of A&AS
2) Value of milk, the biggest agriculture produce of India, exceeds combined value of Paddy, wheat,
pulses and sugarcane
3) Growth in livestock industries (5-8%) is much higher than cereals (1.8%) even without MSP support
4) Isn't providing MSP to farmers waste of govt resources? - no, rather an incentive to improve
production of certain crops
5) Then why govt provide MSP? - achieve farmer income and food security
6) Should we shift towards market based model ? - maybe time is not ripe since slower agri growth and
46% population, also motive not to distort trade but to achieve farmer income and food security
7) Is populism one factor for this? - a minor factor

v. Legalising MSP - not feasible, govt burden even when agri growth is higher (if agri growth lower, more govt
seems logical), Favourable terms of trade for agri b/c good price for farmers, Against WTO Agreement on
Agriculture (MSP = Amber box, trade distorting)
vi. PDS policy - food security and PMGKAY -
1) support b/c welfare state, post Covid food situation had worsened
2) Govt was already giving free grains till last year
3) K-shaped recovery as unorganised sector in problem so food front safe for them
4) Total food, fuel, fertiliser subsidy = 2 L Cr = total loan write-off by banks
5) Flexible NFSA where grain amount per HH will adjust as per actual annual production based on
monsoon
6) Some minimum payment could be present like 3/2/1
7) Maybe divert free food subsidy amount to social infra for the same destitute population
vii. Recap of 3 farm laws
i. Was their repeal justified?
ii. Were they void of advantages? - some govt role in 'free' agri market justified and desirable, states not
consulted, farmer GRM inefficient
viii. Why agri output is low? Is it due to lack of government support?

3. Millets
i. Millet man of India - Dr. Khader Vali
i. Padma Shri 2023, returned from US in 1997
ii. Proponent of Millets since last 25 years
ii. Do they cause certain problems
iii. Advantages compared to other cereals? Support with data

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 iii. Advantages compared to other cereals? Support with data

4. Agri investment
i. higher govt Capex in agri very much desired - eg public investment in irrigation
ii. MGNREGA can also assist in such infra creation

5. Direct vs indirect subsidy

INDUSTRIES
1. Manufacturing
a. Why India lagging in mfg
b. What our country can do more for making it Developed Economy in Manufacturing?
c. What is your understanding about Make in India
d. What major things u can think about when it comes to increase our Exports and Manufacturing sector
contribution in GDP

2. Electronics
a. Targets
i. Electronics Exports expected $100 Bn by 2030 - mobiles and laptops mostly
ii. 6 sectors which will help realise $1 Tn exports by 2030 - Electronics, engineering goods (like Solar
modules, turbo jets, auto and auto-components, EV and parts), textiles, marine and agriculture, toys
and pharmaceuticals
b. Key challenges
i. Import dependence
a) Lack of SemiC chip mfg ecosystem - core components like Integrates chips are imported
b) No duty on imports of laptops and IT products as India is a signatory since 1997 to WTO’s
Information Technology Agreement (ITA)
c) Experience with the ITA has been most discouraging, almost wiping out the IT industry from the
country. The real gainer from the agreement has been China
ii. PLI worth 7350 Cr in electronics mfg - current allocation for IT hardware PLI needs to be increased
three-fold to around Rs 21,000-22,000 crore, also continuation for next 8 years

3. PMI
a. Have you heard about the PMI?
b. Who publishes it and what is India’s position?

SERVICES
1. Start ups - effect on economy? Is India on top?
2. Is it a good thing that the service sector is doing well?

3. Gig workers
a. Do u know gig worker
b. Name few gig platforms
c. Are they formal or informal

4. OPS vs NPS
a. Key differences
b. Is NPS bad? Any improvements needed in NPS?
c. Why OPS is termed as burden?
d. How would you convince others to move from OPS to NPS
e. Why some states announced reverting back to OPS? Is it a good move?

5. NPA problem
a. What is NPA?
b. What is Bad Bank? Name of the recently created institution?
c. Should NARCL be merged with IDRCL? - FinMin clarifies present structure works well so no need for it

6. Direct tax to GDP ratio rose to a 15 year high of 6.11% in 2022-23, accompanied by an increase in the number of
income tax return files to 7.4 crore which is an increase of 6.3% from financial year 2022

7. Adani issue
a. Hindenburg research accuse Adani group of making false, misleading claims about its financial practices
i. Hindenburg indulges in short selling
b. SEBI guidelines
1) Short selling allowed - Means selling a share you do not have actually (you borrow it), only to buy it
later at lower price
2) Naked Short selling banned - You do not even borrow

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 2) Naked Short selling banned - You do not even borrow

8. Paytm payments bank crisis?

a. Should govt intervene in Paytm crisis
b. How do you suggest we should tackle this crisis

9. Digital Public infra

a. UPI launch in SL, Mauritius

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