PROBABILITY 557

0.6 and 0.4 respectively. Further, if the first group wins, the probability of
introducing a new product is 0.7 and the corresponding probability is 0.3 if the
second group wins. Find the probability that the new product introduced was by
the second group.
10. Suppose a girl throws a die. If she gets a 5 or 6, she tosses a coin three times and
notes the number of heads. If she gets 1, 2, 3 or 4, she tosses a coin once and
notes whether a head or tail is obtained. If she obtained exactly one head, what
is the probability that she threw 1, 2, 3 or 4 with the die?
11. A manufacturer has three machine operators A, B and C. The first operator A
produces 1% defective items, where as the other two operators B and C pro-
duce 5% and 7% defective items respectively. A is on the job for 50% of the
time, B is on the job for 30% of the time and C is on the job for 20% of the time.
A defective item is produced, what is the probability that it was produced by A?
12. A card from a pack of 52 cards is lost. From the remaining cards of the pack,
two cards are drawn and are found to be both diamonds. Find the probability of
the lost card being a diamond.
4
13. Probability that A speaks truth is . A coin is tossed. A reports that a head
5
appears. The probability that actually there was head is
4 1 1 2
(A) (B) (C) (D)
5 2 5 5
14. If A and B are two events such that A ⊂ B and P(B) ≠ 0, then which of the
following is correct?
P (B)
(A) P(A | B) = (B) P(A|B) < P(A)
P (A)
(C) P(A|B) ≥ P(A) (D) None of these
13.6 Random Variables and its Probability Distributions
We have already learnt about random experiments and formation of sample spaces. In
most of these experiments, we were not only interested in the particular outcome that
occurs but rather in some number associated with that outcomes as shown in following
examples/experiments.
(i) In tossing two dice, we may be interested in the sum of the numbers on the
two dice.
(ii) In tossing a coin 50 times, we may want the number of heads obtained.

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(iii) In the experiment of taking out four articles (one after the other) at random
from a lot of 20 articles in which 6 are defective, we want to know the
number of defectives in the sample of four and not in the particular sequence
of defective and nondefective articles.
In all of the above experiments, we have a rule which assigns to each outcome of
the experiment a single real number. This single real number may vary with different
outcomes of the experiment. Hence, it is a variable. Also its value depends upon the
outcome of a random experiment and, hence, is called random variable. A random
variable is usually denoted by X.
If you recall the definition of a function, you will realise that the random variable X
is really speaking a function whose domain is the set of outcomes (or sample space) of
a random experiment. A random variable can take any real value, therefore, its
co-domain is the set of real numbers. Hence, a random variable can be defined as
follows :
Definition 4 A random variable is a real valued function whose domain is the sample
space of a random experiment.
For example, let us consider the experiment of tossing a coin two times in succession.
The sample space of the experiment is S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}.
If X denotes the number of heads obtained, then X is a random variable and for
each outcome, its value is as given below :
X (HH) = 2, X (HT) = 1, X (TH) = 1, X (TT) = 0.
More than one random variables can be defined on the same sample space. For
example, let Y denote the number of heads minus the number of tails for each outcome
of the above sample space S.
Then Y (HH) = 2, Y (HT) = 0, Y (TH) = 0, Y (TT) = – 2.
Thus, X and Y are two different random variables defined on the same sample
space S.
Example 22 A person plays a game of tossing a coin thrice. For each head, he is
given Rs 2 by the organiser of the game and for each tail, he has to give Rs 1.50 to the
organiser. Let X denote the amount gained or lost by the person. Show that X is a
random variable and exhibit it as a function on the sample space of the experiment.
Solution X is a number whose values are defined on the outcomes of a random
experiment. Therefore, X is a random variable.
Now, sample space of the experiment is
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}

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Then X (HHH) = Rs (2 × 3) = Rs 6
X (HHT) = X (HTH) = X (THH) = Rs (2 × 2 − 1 × 1.50) = Rs 2.50
X (HTT) = X (THT) = (TTH) = Rs (1 × 2) – (2 × 1.50) = – Re 1
and X (TTT) = − Rs (3 × 1.50) = − Rs 4.50
where, minus sign shows the loss to the player. Thus, for each element of the sample
space, X takes a unique value, hence, X is a function on the sample space whose range
is
{– 1, 2.50, – 4.50, 6}
Example 23 A bag contains 2 white and 1 red balls. One ball is drawn at random and
then put back in the box after noting its colour. The process is repeated again. If X
denotes the number of red balls recorded in the two draws, describe X.
Solution Let the balls in the bag be denoted by w1, w2, r. Then the sample space is
S = {w1 w1, w1 w2, w2 w2, w2 w1, w1 r, w2 r, r w1, r w2, r r}
Now, for ω∈S
X (ω) = number of red balls
Therefore
X ({w1 w1}) = X ({w1 w2}) = X ({w2 w2}) = X ({w2 w1}) = 0
X ({w1 r}) = X ({w2 r}) = X ({r w1}) = X ({r w2}) = 1 and X ({r r}) = 2
Thus, X is a random variable which can take values 0, 1 or 2.
13.6.1 Probability distribution of a random variable
Let us look at the experiment of selecting one family out of ten families f1, f2 ,..., f10 in
such a manner that each family is equally likely to be selected. Let the families f1, f2,
... , f10 have 3, 4, 3, 2, 5, 4, 3, 6, 4, 5 members, respectively.
Let us select a family and note down the number of members in the family denoting
X. Clearly, X is a random variable defined as below :
X (f1) = 3, X (f2) = 4, X (f3) = 3, X (f4) = 2, X (f5) = 5,
X (f6) = 4, X (f7) = 3, X (f8) = 6, X (f9) = 4, X (f10) = 5
Thus, X can take any value 2,3,4,5 or 6 depending upon which family is selected.
Now, X will take the value 2 when the family f4 is selected. X can take the value
3 when any one of the families f1, f3, f7 is selected.
Similarly, X = 4, when family f2, f6 or f9 is selected,
X = 5, when family f5 or f10 is selected
and X = 6, when family f8 is selected.

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Since we had assumed that each family is equally likely to be selected, the probability
1
that family f4 is selected is .
10
1 1
Thus, the probability that X can take the value 2 is . We write P(X = 2) =
10 10
Also, the probability that any one of the families f1, f3 or f7 is selected is
3
P({f1, f3, f7}) =
10
3
Thus, the probability that X can take the value 3 =
10
3
We write P(X = 3) =
10
Similarly, we obtain
3
P(X = 4) = P({f2, f6, f9}) =
10
2
P(X = 5) = P({f5, f10}) =
10
1
and P(X = 6) = P({f8}) =
10
Such a description giving the values of the random variable along with the
corresponding probabilities is called the probability distribution of the random
variable X.
In general, the probability distribution of a random variable X is defined as follows:
Definition 5 The probability distribution of a random variable X is the system of numbers
X : x1 x2 ... xn
P(X) : p1 p2 ... pn

where, = 1, i = 1, 2,..., n

The real numbers x1, x2,..., xn are the possible values of the random variable X and
pi (i = 1,2,..., n) is the probability of the random variable X taking the value xi i.e.,
P(X = xi) = pi

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Note If xi is one of the possible values of a random variable X, the statement

X = xi is true only at some point (s) of the sample space. Hence, the probability that
X takes value xi is always nonzero, i.e. P(X = xi) ≠ 0.
Also for all possible values of the random variable X, all elements of the sample
space are covered. Hence, the sum of all the probabilities in a probability distribution
must be one.
Example 24 Two cards are drawn successively with replacement from a well-shuffled
deck of 52 cards. Find the probability distribution of the number of aces.
Solution The number of aces is a random variable. Let it be denoted by X. Clearly, X
can take the values 0, 1, or 2.
Now, since the draws are done with replacement, therefore, the two draws form
independent experiments.
Therefore, P(X = 0) = P(non-ace and non-ace)
= P(non-ace) × P(non-ace)
48 48 144
= × =
52 52 169
P(X = 1) = P(ace and non-ace or non-ace and ace)
= P(ace and non-ace) + P(non-ace and ace)
= P(ace). P(non-ace) + P (non-ace) . P(ace)
4 48 48 4 24
= × + × =
52 52 52 52 169
and P(X = 2) = P (ace and ace)
4 4 1
= × =
52 52 169
Thus, the required probability distribution is

X 0 1 2

144 24 1
P(X)
169 169 169

Example 25 Find the probability distribution of number of doublets in three throws of

a pair of dice.

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Solution Let X denote the number of doublets. Possible doublets are

(1,1) , (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)
Clearly, X can take the value 0, 1, 2, or 3.
6 1
Probability of getting a doublet = =
36 6
1 5
Probability of not getting a doublet = 1 − =
6 6
5 5 5 125
Now P(X = 0) = P (no doublet) = × × =
6 6 6 216
P(X = 1) = P (one doublet and two non-doublets)
1 5 5 5 1 5 5 5 1
= × × + × × + × ×
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

1 52 75
=3 × 2 =
6 6 216
P(X = 2) = P (two doublets and one non-doublet)
1 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 1 1 5 15
= × × + × × + × × =3 2 × =
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 216
and P(X = 3) = P (three doublets)
1 1 1 1
= × × =
6 6 6 216
Thus, the required probability distribution is

X 0 1 2 3
125 75 15 1
P(X)
216 216 216 216
Verification Sum of the probabilities
n
125 75 15 1
∑ pi = + + +
216 216 216 216
i =1

125 + 75 + 15 + 1 216
= = =1
216 216

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Example 26 Let X denote the number of hours you study during a randomly selected
school day. The probability that X can take the values x, has the following form, where
k is some unknown constant.

0.1, if x = 0
kx, if x =1or 2

P(X = x) = 
k (5 − x), if x = 3or 4
0, otherwise

(a) Find the value of k.

(b) What is the probability that you study at least two hours ? Exactly two hours? At
most two hours?

Solution The probability distribution of X is

X 0 1 2 3 4
P(X) 0.1 k 2k 2k k
n
(a) We know that ∑ pi =1
i =1
Therefore 0.1 + k + 2k + 2k + k = 1
i.e. k = 0.15
(b) P(you study at least two hours) = P(X ≥ 2)
= P(X = 2) + P (X = 3) + P (X = 4)
= 2k + 2k + k = 5k = 5 × 0.15 = 0.75
P(you study exactly two hours) = P(X = 2)
= 2k = 2 × 0.15 = 0.3
P(you study at most two hours) = P(X ≤ 2)
= P (X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)
= 0.1 + k + 2k = 0.1 + 3k = 0.1 + 3 × 0.15
= 0.55
13.6.2 Mean of a random variable
In many problems, it is desirable to describe some feature of the random variable by
means of a single number that can be computed from its probability distribution. Few
such numbers are mean, median and mode. In this section, we shall discuss mean only.
Mean is a measure of location or central tendency in the sense that it roughly locates a
middle or average value of the random variable.

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Definition 6 Let X be a random variable whose possible values x1, x2, x3, ..., xn occur
with probabilities p1, p2, p3,..., pn , respectively. The mean of X, denoted by µ, is the
n
number  xi pi i.e. the mean of X is the weighted average of the possible values of X,
i =1

each value being weighted by its probability with which it occurs.

The mean of a random variable X is also called the expectation of X, denoted by
E(X).
n

Thus, E (X) = µ = ∑ xi pi = x1 p1+ x2 p2 + ... + xn pn.

i =1

In other words, the mean or expectation of a random variable X is the sum of the
products of all possible values of X by their respective probabilities.
Example 27 Let a pair of dice be thrown and the random variable X be the sum of the
numbers that appear on the two dice. Find the mean or expectation of X.
Solution The sample space of the experiment consists of 36 elementary events in the
form of ordered pairs (xi , yi), where xi = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and yi = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
The random variable X i.e. the sum of the numbers on the two dice takes the
values 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 or 12.
1
Now P(X = 2) = P({(1,1)}) =
36
2
P(X = 3) = P({(1,2), (2,1)}) =
36
3
P(X = 4) = P({(1,3), (2,2), (3,1)}) =
36
4
P(X = 5) = P({(1,4), (2,3), (3,2), (4,1)}) =
36
5
P(X = 6) = P({(1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), (5,1)}) =
36
6
P(X = 7) = P({(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)}) =
36
5
P(X = 8) = P({(2,6), (3,5), (4,4), (5,3), (6,2)}) =
36

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 PROBABILITY 565

4
P(X = 9) = P({(3,6), (4,5), (5,4), (6,3)}) =
36
3
P(X = 10) = P({(4,6), (5,5), (6,4)}) =
36
2
P(X = 11) = P({(5,6), (6,5)}) =
36
1
P(X = 12) = P({(6,6)}) =
36
The probability distribution of X is

X or xi 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
P(X) or pi
36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
Therefore,
n
1 2 3 4
µ = E(X) = ∑ xi pi = 2×
36
+ 3× + 4 × + 5 ×
36 36 36
i =1

5 6 5 4 3 2 1
+6× +7× +8× + 9 × + 10 × + 11× + 12 ×
36 36 36 36 36 36 36

2 + 6 + 12 + 20 + 30 + 42 + 40 + 36 + 30 + 22 + 12
= =7
36
Thus, the mean of the sum of the numbers that appear on throwing two fair dice is 7.
13.6.3 Variance of a random variable
The mean of a random variable does not give us information about the variability in the
values of the random variable. In fact, if the variance is small, then the values of the
random variable are close to the mean. Also random variables with different probability
distributions can have equal means, as shown in the following distributions of X and Y.

X 1 2 3 4
1 2 3 2
P(X)
8 8 8 8

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Y –1 0 4 5 6
1 2 3 1 1
P(Y)
8 8 8 8 8
1 2 3 2 22
Clearly E(X) = 1× + 2 × + 3× + 4 × = = 2.75
8 8 8 8 8

1 2 3 1 1 22
and E(Y) = −1× + 0 × + 4 × + 5 × = 6 × = = 2.75
8 8 8 8 8 8
The variables X and Y are different, however their means are same. It is also
easily observable from the diagramatic representation of these distributions (Fig 13.5).
P(X) P(Y)

3 3
8 8
2 2
8 8
1 1
8 8

O 1 2 3 4 –1 O 1 2 3 4 5 6
(i) (ii)
Fig 13.5
To distinguish X from Y, we require a measure of the extent to which the values of
the random variables spread out. In Statistics, we have studied that the variance is a
measure of the spread or scatter in data. Likewise, the variability or spread in the
values of a random variable may be measured by variance.
Definition 7 Let X be a random variable whose possible values x1, x2,...,xn occur with
probabilities p(x1), p(x2),..., p(xn) respectively.

Let µ = E (X) be the mean of X. The variance of X, denoted by Var (X) or σ x 2 is

defined as
n
σ x 2 = Var (X) = ∑ ( xi − ) 2 p( xi )
i =1

or equivalently σ x 2 = E(X – µ)2

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The non-negative number

n
σx = Var(X) =  ( xi − )2 p( xi )
i =1

is called the standard deviation of the random variable X.

Another formula to find the variance of a random variable. We know that,
n
Var (X) =  ( xi − )2 p( xi )
i =1

n n n
=  xi p( xi ) +   2 p( xi ) −  2xi p( xi )
2

i =1 i =1 i =1

n n n
=  xi p( xi ) +   p( xi ) − 2  xi p( xi )
2 2

i =1 i =1 i =1

n
 n n

=  xi p ( xi ) +  − 2 since  p (xi ) =1and  =  xi p( xi ) 
2 2 2

i =1  i =1 i =1 

n
=  xi 2 p( xi ) −  2
i =1

2
n
 n 
or Var (X) =  xi p( xi ) −   xi p ( xi ) 
2

i =1  i =1 
n
Var (X) = E(X ) – [E(X)] , where E(X ) =  xi p( xi )
2 2 2 2
or
i =1

Example 28 Find the variance of the number obtained on a throw of an unbiased die.

Solution The sample space of the experiment is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

Let X denote the number obtained on the throw. Then X is a random variable
which can take values 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

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1
Also P(1) = P(2) = P(3) = P(4) = P(5) = P(6) =
6
Therefore, the Probability distribution of X is

X 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1 1 1 1 1
P(X)
6 6 6 6 6 6
n
Now E(X) = ∑ xi p( xi )
i =1

1 1 1 1 1 1 21
= 1× + 2 × + 3× + 4 × + 5× + 6 × =
6 6 6 6 6 6 6

2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 91
Also E(X2) = 1 × + 2 × + 3 × + 4 × + 5 × + 6 × =
6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Thus, Var (X) = E (X2) – (E(X))2
2
91  21  91 441 35
= −  = − =
6  6  6 36 12

Example 29 Two cards are drawn simultaneously (or successively without replacement)
from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the mean, variance and standard deviation
of the number of kings.
Solution Let X denote the number of kings in a draw of two cards. X is a random
variable which can assume the values 0, 1 or 2.

48!
C 2!(48 − 2)! 48 × 47 188
48
Now P(X = 0) = P (no king) = 52 2 = = =
C2 52! 52 × 51 221
2!(52 − 2)!

4 48
C1 C1
P(X = 1) = P (one king and one non-king) = 52
C2

4 × 48× 2 32
= =
52 × 51 221

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4
C2 4× 3 1
and P(X = 2) = P (two kings) = = =
52
C 2 52 × 51 221
Thus, the probability distribution of X is
X 0 1 2
188 32 1
P(X)
221 221 221
n

Now Mean of X = E(X) = ∑ xi p( xi )

i =1

188 32 1 34
= 0× +1× + 2× =
221 221 221 221
n
Also 2
E(X ) =  xi2 p( xi )
i =1

188 2 32 1 36
= 02 × +1 × + 22 × =
221 221 221 221
Now Var(X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2
2
36  34  6800
= –  =
221  221  (221)2

6800
Therefore σx = Var(X) = = 0.37
221

EXERCISE 13.4
1. State which of the following are not the probability distributions of a random
variable. Give reasons for your answer.
(i) X 0 1 2
P(X) 0.4 0.4 0.2

(ii) X 0 1 2 3 4
P(X) 0.1 0.5 0.2 – 0.1 0.3

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(iii) Y –1 0 1
P(Y) 0.6 0.1 0.2

(iv) Z 3 2 1 0 –1
P(Z) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.05

2. An urn contains 5 red and 2 black balls. Two balls are randomly drawn. Let X
represent the number of black balls. What are the possible values of X? Is X a
random variable ?
3. Let X represent the difference between the number of heads and the number of
tails obtained when a coin is tossed 6 times. What are possible values of X?
4. Find the probability distribution of
(i) number of heads in two tosses of a coin.
(ii) number of tails in the simultaneous tosses of three coins.
(iii) number of heads in four tosses of a coin.

5. Find the probability distribution of the number of successes in two tosses of a die,
where a success is defined as
(i) number greater than 4
(ii) six appears on at least one die

6. From a lot of 30 bulbs which include 6 defectives, a sample of 4 bulbs is drawn

at random with replacement. Find the probability distribution of the number of
defective bulbs.
7. A coin is biased so that the head is 3 times as likely to occur as tail. If the coin is
tossed twice, find the probability distribution of number of tails.
8. A random variable X has the following probability distribution:
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P(X) 0 k 2k 2k 3k k 2 2k 2 7k 2 +k
Determine
(i) k (ii) P(X < 3)
(iii) P(X > 6) (iv) P(0 < X < 3)

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9. The random variable X has a probability distribution P(X) of the following form,
where k is some number :

 k , if x = 0
 2k , if x =1

P(X) = 
3k , if x = 2
0, otherwise

(a) Determine the value of k.

(b) Find P (X < 2), P (X ≤ 2), P(X ≥ 2).
10. Find the mean number of heads in three tosses of a fair coin.
11. Two dice are thrown simultaneously. If X denotes the number of sixes, find the
expectation of X.
12. Two numbers are selected at random (without replacement) from the first six
positive integers. Let X denote the larger of the two numbers obtained. Find
E(X).
13. Let X denote the sum of the numbers obtained when two fair dice are rolled.
Find the variance and standard deviation of X.
14. A class has 15 students whose ages are 14, 17, 15, 14, 21, 17, 19, 20, 16, 18, 20,
17, 16, 19 and 20 years. One student is selected in such a manner that each has
the same chance of being chosen and the age X of the selected student is
recorded. What is the probability distribution of the random variable X? Find
mean, variance and standard deviation of X.
15. In a meeting, 70% of the members favour and 30% oppose a certain proposal.
A member is selected at random and we take X = 0 if he opposed, and X = 1 if
he is in favour. Find E(X) and Var (X).
Choose the correct answer in each of the following:
16. The mean of the numbers obtained on throwing a die having written 1 on three
faces, 2 on two faces and 5 on one face is
8
(A) 1 (B) 2 (C) 5 (D)
3
17. Suppose that two cards are drawn at random from a deck of cards. Let X be the
number of aces obtained. Then the value of E(X) is
37 5 1 2
(A) (B) (C) (D)
221 13 13 13

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13.7 Bernoulli Trials and Binomial Distribution

13.7.1 Bernoulli trials
Many experiments are dichotomous in nature. For example, a tossed coin shows a
‘head’ or ‘tail’, a manufactured item can be ‘defective’ or ‘non-defective’, the response
to a question might be ‘yes’ or ‘no’, an egg has ‘hatched’ or ‘not hatched’, the decision
is ‘yes’ or ‘no’ etc. In such cases, it is customary to call one of the outcomes a ‘success’
and the other ‘not success’ or ‘failure’. For example, in tossing a coin, if the occurrence
of the head is considered a success, then occurrence of tail is a failure.
Each time we toss a coin or roll a die or perform any other experiment, we call it a
trial. If a coin is tossed, say, 4 times, the number of trials is 4, each having exactly two
outcomes, namely, success or failure. The outcome of any trial is independent of the
outcome of any other trial. In each of such trials, the probability of success or failure
remains constant. Such independent trials which have only two outcomes usually
referred as ‘success’ or ‘failure’ are called Bernoulli trials.
Definition 8 Trials of a random experiment are called Bernoulli trials, if they satisfy
the following conditions :
(i) There should be a finite number of trials.
(ii) The trials should be independent.
(iii) Each trial has exactly two outcomes : success or failure.
(iv) The probability of success remains the same in each trial.
For example, throwing a die 50 times is a case of 50 Bernoulli trials, in which each
trial results in success (say an even number) or failure (an odd number) and the
probability of success (p) is same for all 50 throws. Obviously, the successive throws
of the die are independent experiments. If the die is fair and have six numbers 1 to 6
1 1
written on six faces, then p = and q = 1 – p = = probability of failure.
2 2
Example 30 Six balls are drawn successively from an urn containing 7 red and 9 black
balls. Tell whether or not the trials of drawing balls are Bernoulli trials when after each
draw the ball drawn is
(i) replaced (ii) not replaced in the urn.
Solution
(i) The number of trials is finite. When the drawing is done with replacement, the
7
probability of success (say, red ball) is p = which is same for all six trials
16
(draws). Hence, the drawing of balls with replacements are Bernoulli trials.

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(ii) When the drawing is done without replacement, the probability of success
7 6
(i.e., red ball) in first trial is , in 2nd trial is if the first ball drawn is red or
7 16 15
if the first ball drawn is black and so on. Clearly, the probability of success is
15
not same for all trials, hence the trials are not Bernoulli trials.
13.7.2 Binomial distribution
Consider the experiment of tossing a coin in which each trial results in success (say,
heads) or failure (tails). Let S and F denote respectively success and failure in each
trial. Suppose we are interested in finding the ways in which we have one success in
six trials.
Clearly, six different cases are there as listed below:
SFFFFF, FSFFFF, FFSFFF, FFFSFF, FFFFSF, FFFFFS.
6!
Similarly, two successes and four failures can have 4!× 2! combinations. It will be

lengthy job to list all of these ways. Therefore, calculation of probabilities of 0, 1, 2,...,
n number of successes may be lengthy and time consuming. To avoid the lengthy
calculations and listing of all the possible cases, for the probabilities of number of
successes in n-Bernoulli trials, a formula is derived. For this purpose, let us take the
experiment made up of three Bernoulli trials with probabilities p and q = 1 – p for
success and failure respectively in each trial. The sample space of the experiment is
the set
S = {SSS, SSF, SFS, FSS, SFF, FSF, FFS, FFF}
The number of successes is a random variable X and can take values 0, 1, 2, or 3.
The probability distribution of the number of successes is as below :
P(X = 0) = P(no success)
= P({FFF}) = P(F) P(F) P(F)
= q . q . q = q3 since the trials are independent
P(X = 1) = P(one successes)
= P({SFF, FSF, FFS})
= P({SFF}) + P({FSF}) + P({FFS})
= P(S) P(F) P(F) + P(F) P(S) P(F) + P(F) P(F) P(S)
= p.q.q + q.p.q + q.q.p = 3pq2
P(X = 2) = P (two successes)
= P({SSF, SFS, FSS})
= P({SSF}) + P ({SFS}) + P({FSS})

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= P(S) P(S) P(F) + P(S) P(F) P(S) + P(F) P(S) P(S)

= p.p.q. + p.q.p + q.p.p = 3p2q
and P(X = 3) = P(three success) = P ({SSS})
= P(S) . P(S) . P(S) = p3
Thus, the probability distribution of X is
X 0 1 2 3
P(X) q3 3q 2 p 3qp2 p3
Also, the binominal expansion of (q + p)3 is

q 3 + 3q 2 p + 3qp 2 + p 3
Note that the probabilities of 0, 1, 2 or 3 successes are respectively the 1st, 2nd,
3rd and 4th term in the expansion of (q + p)3.
Also, since q + p = 1, it follows that the sum of these probabilities, as expected, is 1.
Thus, we may conclude that in an experiment of n-Bernoulli trials, the probabilities
of 0, 1, 2,..., n successes can be obtained as 1st, 2nd,...,(n + 1)th terms in the expansion
of (q + p)n. To prove this assertion (result), let us find the probability of x-successes in
an experiment of n-Bernoulli trials.
Clearly, in case of x successes (S), there will be (n – x) failures (F).
n!
Now, x successes (S) and (n – x) failures (F) can be obtained in x !( n − x)! ways.

In each of these ways, the probability of x successes and (n − x) failures is

= P(x successes) . P(n–x) failures is

P(S).P (S)...P(S) ⋅ P(F).P (F)...P(F)

= = px qn–x
x times ( n − x ) times

n!
Thus, the probability of x successes in n-Bernoulli trials is px qn–x
x !( n − x )!
or nCx px qn–x
Thus P(x successes) = n C x p x q n− x , x = 0, 1, 2,...,n. (q = 1 – p)
Clearly, P(x successes), i.e. n C x p x q n − x is the (x + 1)th term in the binomial
expansion of (q + p)n.
Thus, the probability distribution of number of successes in an experiment consisting
of n Bernoulli trials may be obtained by the binomial expansion of (q + p)n. Hence, this

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 PROBABILITY 575

distribution of number of successes X can be written as

X 0 1 2 ... x ... n
P (X) nC 0 q n n C 1 q n–1 p 1 n C 2 q n–2 p 2 n
C x q n–xp x n
C n pn
The above probability distribution is known as binomial distribution with parameters
n and p, because for given values of n and p, we can find the complete probability
distribution.
The probability of x successes P(X = x) is also denoted by P (x) and is given by
P (x) = nCx qn–xpx, x = 0, 1,..., n. (q = 1 – p)
This P (x) is called the probability function of the binomial distribution.
A binomial distribution with n-Bernoulli trials and probability of success in each
trial as p, is denoted by B (n, p).
Let us now take up some examples.
Example 31 If a fair coin is tossed 10 times, find the probability of
(i) exactly six heads
(ii) at least six heads
(iii) at most six heads

Solution The repeated tosses of a coin are Bernoulli trials. Let X denote the number
of heads in an experiment of 10 trials.
1
Clearly, X has the binomial distribution with n = 10 and p =
2
Therefore P(X = x) = nCxqn–xpx, x = 0, 1, 2,...,n
1 1
Here n = 10, p = ,q=1–p=
2 2
10 − x x 10
1  1  10  1 
  = Cx  
10
Therefore P(X = x) = Cx  
2 2  2

10
1 10! 1 105
Now (i) P(X = 6) = C6   = =
10

2 6!× 4! 210 512

(ii) P(at least six heads) = P(X ≥ 6)
= P (X = 6) + P (X = 7) + P (X = 8) + P(X = 9) + P (X = 10)

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10 10 10 10 10
1 1 1 1 1
=
10
C6   + 10 C7   + 10 C8   + 10C9   + 10 C10  
2 2 2  2 2

193
= =
512
(iii) P(at most six heads) = P(X ≤ 6)
= P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3)
+ P (X = 4) + P (X = 5) + P (X = 6)
10 10 10 10
1 1 1 1
=   + C1   + C 2   + C3  
10 10 10

2 2 2 2

10 10 10
1 1 1
+ 10
C 4   + 10C5   + 10C 6  
2 2 2
848 53
= =
1024 64
Example 32 Ten eggs are drawn successively with replacement from a lot containing
10% defective eggs. Find the probability that there is at least one defective egg.
Solution Let X denote the number of defective eggs in the 10 eggs drawn. Since the
drawing is done with replacement, the trials are Bernoulli trials. Clearly, X has the
10 1
binomial distribution with n = 10 and p = = .
100 10
9
Therefore q = 1− p =
10
Now P(at least one defective egg) = P(X ≥ 1) = 1 – P (X = 0)
10
 9 910
= 1 − C0   = 1−
10

 10  1010

EXERCISE 13.5
1. A die is thrown 6 times. If ‘getting an odd number’ is a success, what is the
probability of
(i) 5 successes? (ii) at least 5 successes?
(iii) at most 5 successes?

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 PROBABILITY 577

2. A pair of dice is thrown 4 times. If getting a doublet is considered a success, find

the probability of two successes.
3. There are 5% defective items in a large bulk of items. What is the probability
that a sample of 10 items will include not more than one defective item?
4. Five cards are drawn successively with replacement from a well-shuffled deck
of 52 cards. What is the probability that
(i) all the five cards are spades?
(ii) only 3 cards are spades?
(iii) none is a spade?
5. The probability that a bulb produced by a factory will fuse after 150 days of use
is 0.05. Find the probability that out of 5 such bulbs
(i) none
(ii) not more than one
(iii) more than one
(iv) at least one
will fuse after 150 days of use.
6. A bag consists of 10 balls each marked with one of the digits 0 to 9. If four balls
are drawn successively with replacement from the bag, what is the probability
that none is marked with the digit 0?
7. In an examination, 20 questions of true-false type are asked. Suppose a student
tosses a fair coin to determine his answer to each question. If the coin falls
heads, he answers 'true'; if it falls tails, he answers 'false'. Find the probability
that he answers at least 12 questions correctly.

8. Suppose X has a binomial distribution . Show that X = 3 is the most

likely outcome.
(Hint : P(X = 3) is the maximum among all P(xi), xi = 0,1,2,3,4,5,6)
9. On a multiple choice examination with three possible answers for each of the
five questions, what is the probability that a candidate would get four or more
correct answers just by guessing ?
10. A person buys a lottery ticket in 50 lotteries, in each of which his chance of
1
winning a prize is . What is the probability that he will win a prize
100
(a) at least once (b) exactly once (c) at least twice?

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578 MATHEMATICS

11. Find the probability of getting 5 exactly twice in 7 throws of a die.

12. Find the probability of throwing at most 2 sixes in 6 throws of a single die.
13. It is known that 10% of certain articles manufactured are defective. What is the
probability that in a random sample of 12 such articles, 9 are defective?
In each of the following, choose the correct answer:
14. In a box containing 100 bulbs, 10 are defective. The probability that out of a
sample of 5 bulbs, none is defective is
5 5
1  9 9
(A) 10 –1
(B)   (C)   (D)
 2  10  10

1.
15. The probability that a student is not a swimmer is Then the probability that
5
out of five students, four are swimmers is
4 4
5 4 1 4 1
(A) C4   (B)  
5 5 5 5
4
5 1 4
(C) C1   (D) None of these
5 5

Miscellaneous Examples
Example 33 Coloured balls are distributed in four boxes as shown in the following
table:

Box Colour

Black White Red Blue

I 3 4 5 6
II 2 2 2 2
III 1 2 3 1
IV 4 3 1 5

A box is selected at random and then a ball is randomly drawn from the selected
box. The colour of the ball is black, what is the probability that ball drawn is from the
box III?

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Solution Let A, E1, E2, E3 and E4 be the events as defined below :

A : a black ball is selected E1 : box I is selected
E2 : box II is selected E3 : box III is selected
E4 : box IV is selected
Since the boxes are chosen at random,
1
Therefore P(E1) = P(E2) = P(E3) = P(E4) =
4
3 2 1 4
Also P(A|E1) = , P(A|E2) = , P(A|E3) = and P(A|E4) =
18 8 7 13
P(box III is selected, given that the drawn ball is black) = P(E3|A). By Bayes'
theorem,
P(E 3 ) ⋅ P(A|E 3 )
P(E3|A) =
P(E1 )P(A|E1 ) + P(E 2 ) P(A|E 2 ) + P(E3 ) P(A|E3 ) + P(E 4 ) P(A|E 4 )
1 1
×
4 7
= 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 4 = 0.165
× + × + × + ×
4 18 4 4 4 7 4 13
 1
Example 34 Find the mean of the Binomial distribution B  4, .
 3

 1
Solution Let X be the random variable whose probability distribution is B  4, .
 3
1 1 2
Here n = 4, p = and q = 1 − =
3 3 3
4− x x
 24  1
We know that P(X = x) = C x     , x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4.
 3 3
i.e. the distribution of X is
xi P(xi ) xi P(xi)
4
4  2
0 C0   0
 3
3 3
4  2   1 4  2   1
1 C1     C1    
 3   3  3   3

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580 MATHEMATICS

2
 2   1
2  4  2  2  1 2 
4 2  C2     
2 C2    
 3   3   3   3 

 2  1
3  4  2   1 3 
4 3  C3     
3 C3    
 3   3   3   3 

 1
4  4  1 4 
4 4  C4   
4 C4  
 3   3 

4
Now Mean (µ) =  xi p ( xi )
i =1

3 2 2 3 4
 2 1  2 1  2   1  1
= 0 + C1     + 2 ⋅ 4 C2     + 3 ⋅ C 3     + 4 ⋅ C 4  
4 4 4

 3  3  3  3  3   3  3

23 22 2 1
= 4× 4
+ 2 × 6 × 4
+ 3 × 4 × 4 + 4 ×1× 4
3 3 3 3
32 + 48 + 24 + 4 108 4
= = =
34 81 3
3
Example 35 The probability of a shooter hitting a target is . How many minimum
4
number of times must he/she fire so that the probability of hitting the target at least
once is more than 0.99?
Solution Let the shooter fire n times. Obviously, n fires are n Bernoulli trials. In each
3
trial, p = probability of hitting the target = and q = probability of not hitting the
4
n−x x
1 3 n 3
x
1 n− x x
n
target = . Then P(X = x) = C x q p = nCx     = C x n .
4 4 4 4
Now, given that,
P(hitting the target at least once) > 0.99
i.e. P(x ≥ 1) > 0.99

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 PROBABILITY 581

Therefore, 1 – P (x = 0) > 0.99

1
or 1 − n C0 > 0.99
4n
1 1
or
n
C0 n
< 0.01 i.e. n < 0.01
4 4
1
or 4n > = 100 ... (1)
0.01
The minimum value of n to satisfy the inequality (1) is 4.
Thus, the shooter must fire 4 times.
Example 36 A and B throw a die alternatively till one of them gets a ‘6’ and wins the
game. Find their respective probabilities of winning, if A starts first.
Solution Let S denote the success (getting a ‘6’) and F denote the failure (not getting
a ‘6’).
1 5
Thus, P(S) = , P(F) =
6 6
1
P(A wins in the first throw) = P(S) =
6
A gets the third throw, when the first throw by A and second throw by B result into
failures.
5 5 1
Therefore, P(A wins in the 3rd throw) = P(FFS) = P(F) P(F)P(S) = × ×
6 6 6
2
5 1
=  ×
6 6
4
 5  1
P(A wins in the 5th throw) = P (FFFFS) =     and so on.
 6  6
2 4
1  5  1  5  1
Hence, P(A wins) = +     +     + ...
6  6  6  6  6

1
6 6
= =
25 11
1−
36

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582 MATHEMATICS

6 5
P(B wins) = 1 – P (A wins) = 1− =
11 11
Remark If a + ar + ar2 + ... + arn–1 + ..., where | r | < 1, then sum of this infinite G.P.
a .
is given by (Refer A.1.3 of Class XI Text book).
1− r
Example 37 If a machine is correctly set up, it produces 90% acceptable items. If it is
incorrectly set up, it produces only 40% acceptable items. Past experience shows that
80% of the set ups are correctly done. If after a certain set up, the machine produces
2 acceptable items, find the probability that the machine is correctly setup.
Solution Let A be the event that the machine produces 2 acceptable items.
Also let B1 represent the event of correct set up and B2 represent the event of
incorrect setup.
Now P(B1) = 0.8, P(B2) = 0.2
P(A|B1) = 0.9 × 0.9 and P(A|B2) = 0.4 × 0.4
P (B1 ) P (A|B 1 )
Therefore P(B1|A) =
P (B1 ) P (A|B 1 ) + P (B2 ) P (A|B 2 )

0.8 × 0.9 × 0.9 648

= = = 0.95
0.8 × 0.9 × 0.9 + 0.2 × 0.4 × 0.4 680

Miscellaneous Exercise on Chapter 13

1. A and B are two events such that P (A) ≠ 0. Find P(B|A), if
(i) A is a subset of B (ii) A ∩ B = φ
2. A couple has two children,
(i) Find the probability that both children are males, if it is known that at least
one of the children is male.
(ii) Find the probability that both children are females, if it is known that the
elder child is a female.
3. Suppose that 5% of men and 0.25% of women have grey hair. A grey haired
person is selected at random. What is the probability of this person being male?
Assume that there are equal number of males and females.
4. Suppose that 90% of people are right-handed. What is the probability that
at most 6 of a random sample of 10 people are right-handed?

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5. An urn contains 25 balls of which 10 balls bear a mark 'X' and the remaining 15
bear a mark 'Y'. A ball is drawn at random from the urn, its mark is noted down
and it is replaced. If 6 balls are drawn in this way, find the probability that
(i) all will bear 'X' mark.
(ii) not more than 2 will bear 'Y' mark.
(iii) at least one ball will bear 'Y' mark.
(iv) the number of balls with 'X' mark and 'Y' mark will be equal.

6. In a hurdle race, a player has to cross 10 hurdles. The probability that he will
5
clear each hurdle is . What is the probability that he will knock down fewer
6
than 2 hurdles?
7. A die is thrown again and again until three sixes are obtained. Find the probabil-
ity of obtaining the third six in the sixth throw of the die.
8. If a leap year is selected at random, what is the chance that it will contain 53
tuesdays?
9. An experiment succeeds twice as often as it fails. Find the probability that in the
next six trials, there will be atleast 4 successes.
10. How many times must a man toss a fair coin so that the probability of having
at least one head is more than 90%?
11. In a game, a man wins a rupee for a six and loses a rupee for any other number
when a fair die is thrown. The man decided to throw a die thrice but to quit as
and when he gets a six. Find the expected value of the amount he wins / loses.
12. Suppose we have four boxes A,B,C and D containing coloured marbles as given
below:
Box Marble colour
Red White Black
A 1 6 3
B 6 2 2
C 8 1 1
D 0 6 4
One of the boxes has been selected at random and a single marble is drawn from
it. If the marble is red, what is the probability that it was drawn from box A?, box B?,
box C?

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584 MATHEMATICS

13. Assume that the chances of a patient having a heart attack is 40%. It is also
assumed that a meditation and yoga course reduce the risk of heart attack by
30% and prescription of certain drug reduces its chances by 25%. At a time a
patient can choose any one of the two options with equal probabilities. It is given
that after going through one of the two options the patient selected at random
suffers a heart attack. Find the probability that the patient followed a course of
meditation and yoga?
14. If each element of a second order determinant is either zero or one, what is the
probability that the value of the determinant is positive? (Assume that the indi-
vidual entries of the determinant are chosen independently, each value being
1
assumed with probability ).
2
15. An electronic assembly consists of two subsystems, say, A and B. From previ-
ous testing procedures, the following probabilities are assumed to be known:
P(A fails) = 0.2
P(B fails alone) = 0.15
P(A and B fail) = 0.15
Evaluate the following probabilities
(i) P(A fails|B has failed) (ii) P(A fails alone)
16. Bag I contains 3 red and 4 black balls and Bag II contains 4 red and 5 black balls.
One ball is transferred from Bag I to Bag II and then a ball is drawn from Bag II.
The ball so drawn is found to be red in colour. Find the probability that the
transferred ball is black.
Choose the correct answer in each of the following:
17. If A and B are two events such that P(A) ≠ 0 and P(B | A) = 1, then
(A) A ⊂ B (B) B ⊂ A (C) B = φ (D) A = φ
18. If P(A|B) > P(A), then which of the following is correct :
(A) P(B|A) < P(B) (B) P(A ∩ B) < P(A) . P(B)
(C) P(B|A) > P(B) (D) P(B|A) = P(B)
19. If A and B are any two events such that P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B) = P(A), then
(A) P(B|A) = 1 (B) P(A|B) = 1
(C) P(B|A) = 0 (D) P(A|B) = 0

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Summary
The salient features of the chapter are –
 The conditional probability of an event E, given the occurrence of the event F
P (E ∩ F)
is given by P(E | F) = , P(F) ≠ 0
P(F)
 0 ≤ P (E|F) ≤ 1, P (E′|F) = 1 – P (E|F)
P ((E ∪ F)|G) = P (E|G) + P (F|G) – P ((E ∩F)|G)
 P (E ∩F) = P (E) P (F|E), P (E) ≠ 0
P (E ∩F) = P (F) P (E|F), P (F) ≠ 0
 If E and F are independent, then
P (E ∩F) = P (E) P (F)
P (E|F) = P (E), P (F) ≠ 0
P (F|E) = P (F), P(E) ≠ 0
 Theorem of total probability
Let {E1, E2, ...,En) be a partition of a sample space and suppose that each of
E1, E2, ..., En has nonzero probability. Let A be any event associated with S,
then
P(A) = P(E1) P (A|E1) + P (E2) P (A|E2) + ... + P (En) P(A|En)
 Bayes' theorem If E1, E2, ..., En are events which constitute a partition of
sample space S, i.e. E1, E2, ..., En are pairwise disjoint and E1 E2 ... En = S
and A be any event with nonzero probability, then
P(E i ) P(A|Ei )
P(E i | A) = n

∑ P(E j ) P (A|E j )
j =1

 A random variable is a real valued function whose domain is the sample

space of a random experiment.
 The probability distribution of a random variable X is the system of numbers
X : x1 x2 ... xn
P(X) : p1 p2 ... pn
n
where, pi > 0,  pi = 1, i = 1, 2,..., n
i =1

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586 MATHEMATICS

 Let X be a random variable whose possible values x1, x2, x3, ..., xn occur with
probabilities p1, p2, p3, ... pn respectively. The mean of X, denoted by µ, is
n

the number ∑ xi pi .
i =1
The mean of a random variable X is also called the expectation of X, denoted
by E (X).
 Let X be a random variable whose possible values x1, x2, ..., xn occur with
probabilities p(x1), p(x2), ..., p(xn) respectively.
Let µ = E(X) be the mean of X. The variance of X, denoted by Var (X) or
σx2, is defined as

or equivalently σx2 = E (X – µ)2

The non-negative number

is called the standard deviation of the random variable X.

 Var (X) = E (X2) – [E(X)]2
 Trials of a random experiment are called Bernoulli trials, if they satisfy the
following conditions :
(i) There should be a finite number of trials.
(ii) The trials should be independent.
(iii) Each trial has exactly two outcomes : success or failure.
(iv) The probability of success remains the same in each trial.
For Binomial distribution B (n, p), P (X = x) = nCx q n–x px, x = 0, 1,..., n
(q = 1 – p)

Historical Note
The earliest indication on measurement of chances in game of dice appeared
in 1477 in a commentary on Dante's Divine Comedy. A treatise on gambling
named liber de Ludo Alcae, by Geronimo Carden (1501-1576) was published
posthumously in 1663. In this treatise, he gives the number of favourable cases
for each event when two dice are thrown.

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 PROBABILITY 587

Galileo (1564-1642) gave casual remarks concerning the correct evaluation

of chance in a game of three dice. Galileo analysed that when three dice are
thrown, the sum of the number that appear is more likely to be 10 than the sum 9,
because the number of cases favourable to 10 are more than the number of
cases for the appearance of number 9.
Apart from these early contributions, it is generally acknowledged that the
true origin of the science of probability lies in the correspondence between two
great men of the seventeenth century, Pascal (1623-1662) and Pierre de Fermat
(1601-1665). A French gambler, Chevalier de Metre asked Pascal to explain
some seeming contradiction between his theoretical reasoning and the
observation gathered from gambling. In a series of letters written around 1654,
Pascal and Fermat laid the first foundation of science of probability. Pascal solved
the problem in algebraic manner while Fermat used the method of combinations.
Great Dutch Scientist, Huygens (1629-1695), became acquainted with the
content of the correspondence between Pascal and Fermat and published a first
book on probability, "De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae" containing solution of many
interesting rather than difficult problems on probability in games of chances.
The next great work on probability theory is by Jacob Bernoulli (1654-1705),
in the form of a great book, "Ars Conjectendi" published posthumously in 1713
by his nephew, Nicholes Bernoulli. To him is due the discovery of one of the most
important probability distribution known as Binomial distribution. The next
remarkable work on probability lies in 1993. A. N. Kolmogorov (1903-1987) is
credited with the axiomatic theory of probability. His book, ‘Foundations of
probability’ published in 1933, introduces probability as a set function and is
considered a ‘classic!’.

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