ADAPTING TO SEA LEVEL RISE

Iñigo Losada Rodríguez

[email protected]
Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de Cantabria, “IH Cantabria”
Universidad de Cantabria
 Coastal flooding

Inundation/sumergence vs. Flooding

MA: Marea astronómica

Flooding: MM: Marea meteorológica
RU: Run-up
CI: Cota de inundación
Combined effects !!!

• Waves

• Wind RU
Nivel de marea
• Atmospheric pressure CI MM

MA
• Mean Sea Level Nivel de referencia

(Subsidence)
Historical reconstruction of extreme events
based on hindcast and observation data sets

Significant wave height (Hs), March, 1, 9:00

Historical reconstruction of extreme events
based on hindcast and observation data sets

Significant wave height (Hs), March, 2, 19:00

Historical reconstruction of extreme events
based on hindcast and observation data sets

Significant wave height (Hs), March, 3, 9:00

Historical reconstruction of extreme events
based on hindcast and observation data sets

Significant wave height (Hs), March, 4, 5:00

Historical reconstruction of extreme events
observations (Dec-April) Hs, Tp and TWL
 Coastal flooding

Inundation/sumergence vs. Flooding

MA: Marea astronómica
Flooding: MM: Marea meteorológica
RU: Run-up
CI: Cota de inundación
Combined effects !!!

• Waves

• Wind RU
Nivel de marea
• Atmospheric pressure CI MM

MA
• Mean Sea Level Nivel de referencia

SLR
(Subsidence)
Climate processes and components affecting the local and global
mean sea level
 Sea level variation

Glaciers, ice sheets and

shelves contribution

Thermal expansion
contribution
CAN WE ASSESS THE RISKS ASSOCIATED TO SLR?

CAN WE ADAPT TO SLR? RISK REDUCTION

Risk
The potential for consequences where something of value is
at stake and where the outcome is uncertain, recognizing the
diversity of values.

Risk is often represented as probability or likelihood of

occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the
impacts if these events or trends occur.

The term risk is often used to refer to the potential, when the
outcome is uncertain, for adverse consequences on lives,
livelihoods, health, ecosystems and species, economic, social
and cultural assets, services (including environmental
services) and infrastructure.
IPCC, 2014
Hazard
The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced
physical event or trend or physical impact that may cause loss
of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and
loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision,
ecosystems and environmental resources.In this report, the
term hazard usually refers to climate-related physical events or
trends or their physical impacts.

IPCC, 2014
Exposure
The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems,
environmental functions, services, and resources,
infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places
and settings that could be adversely affected.

IPCC, 2014
Vulnerability
The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected.
Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and
elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and
lack of capacity to cope and adapt.

IPCC, 2014
 2. Resumen resultados globales

Low exposure and low vulnerability

 2. Resumen resultados globales

High exposure and medium vulnerability

 2. Resumen resultados globales

High exposure and high vulnerability

CAN WE ASSESS THE RISKS ASSOCIATED TO SLR?

CAN WE ADAPT TO SLR? RISK REDUCTION

Coastal systems are particularly sensitive to three key
drivers related to climate change: sea level,
ocean temperature and ocean acidity
(very high confidence)
OBSERVATIONS
PROJECTIONS
 4. Resultados
4.2. Proyecciones

RSLR RCP4.5 (Slangen et al. 2014)

 WE NEED TO ASSESS HIGH RESOLUTION
HAZARDS BOTH HISTORIC AND PROJECTED TO
THE FUTURE IN ORDER TO PLAN FOR
ADAPTATION
ADAPTATION TAKES PLACE LOCALLY

HIGH RESOLUTION CASE STUDY

200 Km
MULTI-SECTORAL METHODOLOGY
CAN WE ASSESS THE RISKS ASSOCIATED TO SLR?

CAN WE ADAPT TO SLR? RISK REDUCTION

 - Atmospheric conditions
Met-ocean - Sea level
- Waves
- SS Temperature

Hydro-meteo - Precipitation
- River discharge
HISTORICAL DATA
 COASTAL WAVES
Characteristic winter conditions
STORM SURGE
HISTORIC TRENDS
 1.3. HISTÓRICO

MEAN SEA LEVEL TRENDS

(mm)
 1.3. HISTÓRICO

ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
MAmax (m)

TOTAL WATER LEVEL (TWL)

TWL (t) = MA(t) + MM(t) + Setup(t) α = 0.04  playa
α = 0.08  puerto/acantilado

Acantilados/puertos

Playa
 1.3. HISTÓRICO

MA Hs
TOTAL WATER LEVEL (TWL) MM Setup

TWL
EXTREME TOTAL WATER LEVEL (TWL)
RETURN PERIODS
PROJECTIONS
 1.4. PROYECCIONES

WAVE PROJECTIONS. Changes in Hs12 (m)

RCP4.5 RCP8.5

2010-2039

2040-2069

2070-2099
 1.4. PROYECCIONES

STORM SURGE PROJECTIONS. Changes in MM95% (cm)

RCP4.5 RCP8.5

2010-2039

2040-2069

2070-2099
 1.4. PROYECCIONES

LOCAL RELATIVE SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTIONS

(m)

Slangen et al. 2014

 4. EXPOSICIÓN

EXPOSURE
Source: IGN Coastal
(DTM) – LiDAR 5 m defences

High
resolution
shoreline
 2.2. DATOS SOCIOECONÓMICOS

Population database– JRC (2006)

Spatial resolution = 1 Ha
 2.2. DATOS SOCIOECONÓMICOS

Land-use database SIOSE

Agriculture, industrial, services, urban….

Source: IGN
 2.2. DATOS SOCIOECONÓMICOS

Base Cartográfica Numérica BCN25/BTN25

Base Cartográfica Numérica 1:25.000. Geographic data base 2D, scale 1:25.000, Spain global
coverage

• Buildings
• Industrial buildings
• Critical infrastructures
• Information networks

Source: IGN
 Socioeconomic indicators
Income per capita by municipality.
Year: 2010 (€)
Source: SADEI

Gross value added by sector and municipality. x1000 euros.

Year: 2010.
Source: SADEI
 2.4. DATOS ECOSISTEMAS

Ecosystem services valuation – VANE

VANE – Valoración de los Activos Naturales de España

ASSESSING FLOODING IMPACTS
 FLOODING SCENARIOS

PRESENT CLIMATE
3 time horizons: MEDIUM TERM: YEAR 2050
LONG-TERM: YEAR 2100
SLR1 = 0.24 m
SLR2 = 0.45 m (RCP4.5)
PERMANENT FLOODING (SLR)
SLR3 = 0.65 m (RCP8.5)
SLR4 = 1 m (High++)
2 flooding types:
T1 = 100 YEARS
EXTREME FLOODING EVENT (CI)
T2 = 500 YEARS
Socioeconomic
Horizon Type Climate Scenario
scenario
EA1 T1
Present CI
EA2 T2
EM1 SLR1+T1
2050 CI
EM2 SLR1+T2
SLR EL1 SLR4
EL2 SLR2+T1
2100 CI
EL3 SLR2+T2
EL4 SLR3+T1
EL5 SLR3+T2
 FLOODING MODEL

RFSM-EDA
(Rapid Flood Spreading Method - Explicit Diffusion wave with
Acceleration term)

 2D storage cell model (Gouldby et al., 2008)

 Based on a diffusive approach of SWE with local inertia
 Computational mesh consisting on Impact Zones (IZ’s) with sub-
element topography
 Provides water depth over ground and velocities
 3.1. INUNDACIÓN

INUNDATION MODELING ALONG THE COAST

Spatial distribution of computational meshes for RFSM-EDA

MALLA 3
MALLA 4
MALLA 6 MALLA 5
MALLA 2
MALLA 1
 3. IMPACTOS

COMPUTATIONAL
MESH

MESH 4 MESH 1

MESH 5 MESH 2

PILOT
CASE

MESH 6 MESH 3
 3. IMPACTOS

2
INUNDATION MODELING ALONG THE COAST

3
1

•Nº Impact Zones: 2842

•Average surface: 3500 m2
•DTM high resolution (5m)
INUNDATION MODELING ALONG THE COAST
 3. IMPACTOS

RESULTS
E1 – Present climate
T=100
LUARCA

GIJÓN

SAN ESTEBAN DE PRAVIA – SAN

NAVIA JUAN DE LA ARENA AVILÉS
 3. IMPACTOS

LUARCA

E1 – PRESENT CLIMATE E6 – H=2100 E8 - H=2100

T=100 T=100 + SLR=0.45 m T=100 + SLR=0.65 m

NAVIA

E1 – PRESENT CLIMATE E5 – H=2100 E6 – H=2100 E8 - H=2100

T=100 SLR=1 m T=100 + SLR=0.45 m T=100 + SLR=0.65 m
 AVILÉS

E1 – PRESENT CLIMATE E8 - H=2100

T=100 T=100 + SLR=0.65 m

SAN ESTEBAN DE PRAVIA – SAN

JUAN DE LA ARENA

E1 – PRESENT CLIMATE E5 - H=2100 E6 - H=2100 E8 - H=2100

T=100 SLR=1 m T=100 + SLR=0.45 m T=100 + SLR=0.65 m
 3. IMPACTOS

GIJÓN

E1 – PRESENT CLIMATE E6 - H=2100 E8 - H=2100

T=100 T=100 + SLR=0.45 m T=100 + SLR=0.65 m

E5 - H=2100
SLR=1 m
AREA FLOODED
ASSESSING CONSEQUENCES/RISK
 RISK SCENARIOS

Climatic Scenarios
Permanent Flooding – SLR
(m) Extreme Events– CI
Horizon
(T= Return Period)
RCP4.5 RCP8.5 High++
2050 SLR1=0.24 - T1=100 T2=500
SLR3=
SLR2=0.45 SLR4=1
2100 0.65 T1=100 T2=500

Socioeconomic scenarios

Horizon Year Population/GDP

Present S0
2050 S1
2100 S2
 RISK SCENARIOS

YEAR Flooding/In CLIMATIC SOCIOECONOMIC RISK

undation SCENARIOS SCENARIOS SCENARIOS
T1 S0 Escenario1
PRESENT CI
T2 S0 Escenario2
T1+SLR1 S1 Escenario3
2050 CI
T2+SLR1 S1 Escenario4
SLR SLR4 S2 Escenario5
T1+SLR2 S2 Escenario6
2100 T2+SLR2 S2 Escenario7
CI
T1+SLR3 S2 Escenario8
T2+SLR3 S2 Escenario9
 AFFECTED POPULATION
LUARCA

Combined effect of extreme events

and SLR

Escenario 1.- CLIMA PRESENTE Escenario 4.- MEDIO PLAZO Escenario 11.- LARGO PLAZO
Tr=100 SLR=0.24 m + Tr=100 SLR=0.65 m + Tr=100
 AFFECTED POPULATION (%)

REFERENCIA 2050

BASE Escenario 3.- HORIZONTE= 2050:

Tr1=100 + SLR1= 0.24 m, S1

REFERENCIA 2100
Escenario 1.- CLIMA PRESENTE:
Tr1=100, S0

Escenario 5.- HORIZONTE= 2100:

%
SLR4= 1 m, S0
Porcentaje de población
afectada respecto al total de
cada concejo. Referido al
censo de 2010.

Escenario 8.- HORIZONTE= 2100:

Tr1=100 + SLR2= 0.65** m, S0

**: valor medio del RCP8.5 en la costa asturiana modificado localmente con Slangen et al. (2014)
 AFFECTED POPULATION

% AFFECTED POPULATION BY MUNCIPALITY

 INDUSTRIAL GROSS VALUE ADDED

DATA BASE: SPATIAL

DISTRIBUTION OF
INDUSTRIAL ASSETS FLOOD HEIGHT AT
BCN25/BTN25 (IGN) EACH ASSET
AFFECTED ASSETS
GAV AFFECTED(€)
FLOODING MAPS

NUMBER OF DAYS OF
DAMAGE (€) OPERATION STOPPAGE

NUMBER OF DAYS
FLOODING HEIGHT OF OPERATION INUNDATION TYPE
STOPPAGE

CI ≤ 0.5 m 2 Extreme Event

0.5 m < CI ≤ 1 m 5 Extreme Event
1 m < CI ≤ 1.5 m 10 Extreme Event
CI >1.5 m 15 Extreme Event
CI >0 365 Permanent Flooding
 NAVIA Escenario 1.- CLIMA PRESENTE Tr=100 Escenario 4.- MEDIO PLAZO SLR=0.24 m +
Tr=100
Affected
Industrial
Gross
Value
Added

Escenario 9.- LARGO PLAZO SLR=1.5 m Escenario 11.- LARGO PLAZO SLR=0.65 m +
Tr=100
 AFFECTED GROSS VALUE ADDED
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
REFERENCIA 2050
BASE

Daño efectivo
Daño efectivo
Escenario 1.- CLIMA PRESENTE: Tr1=100, S0
Escenario 3.- HORIZONTE= 2050: Tr1=100 + SLR1= 0.24 m, S1

REFERENCIA 2100

% Daño efectivo anual sobre la producción

industrial expresado como porcentaje de Daño efectivo
VAB industrial afectado respecto al VAB
industrial anual total de cada concejo. Como INUNDACIÓN PERMANENTE
orden de magnitud, el VAB industrial de la
provincia asciende a 4 573 668 000 EUR/AÑO
(año de referencia 2010, Sadei).

Daño efectivo
Escenario 8.- HORIZONTE= 2100: Tr1=100 + SLR2= 0.65** m, S2

RESULTADOS DESCONTADOS

%
REFERENCIA 2050 REFERENCIA 2100

Daño efectivo Daño efectivo

Escenario 3.- HORIZONTE= 2050: Tr1=100 + SLR1= 0.24 m, S1 Escenario 8.- HORIZONTE= 2100: Tr1=100 + SLR2= 0.65** m, S2
Tasa anual de descuento aplicada: 2% Tasa anual de descuento aplicada: 1%

**: valor medio del RCP8.5 en la costa asturiana modificado localmente con Slangen et al. (2014)
 AFFECTED GROSS VALUE ADDED
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
BY MUNICIPALITY

% VAB INDUSTRIAL
AFECTADO POR CONCEJO
 AFFECTED HOUSING CAPITAL STOCK
FLOODING HEIGHT

DATA BASE: SPATIAL

DISTRIBUTION OF CAPITAL STOCK
HOUSING (IGN) AFFECTED (€)
AFFECTED BUILDINGS
INCOME CORRECTION
FLOODING BY MUNICIPALITY
SCENARIOS

DAMAGE/LOSSES (€) DAMAGE FUNCTIONS

25%
23%
NAVIA Escenario 1.- CLIMA PRESENTE Tr=100 Escenario 4.- MEDIO PLAZO SLR=0.24 m +
Housing Tr=100

Capital
Stock
damage

Escenario 9.- LARGO PLAZO SLR=1.5 m Escenario 11.- LARGO PLAZO SLR=0.65 m +
Tr=100
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES
 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES
CANDÁS
Escenario 8.- SLR=0.65 m Tr=100
(Horizonte 2100)

CUEVA AVILÉS

RIBADESELLA
 RISK ASSESSMENT

RISK SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION

RE-SCALING OF SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS

High risk

Moderate - high risk

Moderate risk

Low risk

THRESHOLDS DEFINED FOR THE MAXIMUM VALUES UNDER

SCENARIO 1

Adaptation goal: Keep present risk level

AGGREGATED AND WEIGTHED RISK: Population (35%), Capital

Stocks (35%) and Gross Net Value (30%)
RISK ASSESSMENT
ADAPTATION IS
ALREADY OCCURING
Adaptation
The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate
and its effects.

In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or

avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities.

In some natural systems, human intervention may

facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects.
For the 21st century, the benefits of protecting against increased coastal
flooding and land loss due to submergence and erosion at the global scale are
larger than the social and economic costs of inaction (high agreement, limited
evidence).

The relative costs of adaptation vary strongly between and within regions and
countries for the 21st century (high confidence).

The analysis and implementation of coastal adaptation has progressed more

significantly in developed countries than in developing countries towards
climate resilient and sustainable coasts (high confidence).

IPCC 2014
HEALTHY AND FUNCTIONAL ECOSYSTEMS

A1 Wetland protection and restoration

A2 Protected areas and marine conservation agreemnts

A3 Taxes on enviromental and ecosystem services
 Protection and wetland restoration
OBJECTIVE:
To reduce coastal erosion and flooding be creating new
habitats and generating environmental benefits by
holding the shoreline

CHARACTERISTICS:
Highly efficient
Natural adaptive capacity
Marshes and mangrove forest are the main restore
wetlands
Reducing coastal exposure
B1 Beach nourishment
B2 Dune restoration and artificial creation
B3 Shoreline stabilization by natural solutions
B4 Seawalls
B5 Dikes
B6 Retreat
B7 Accommodation to coastal flooding
 Beach nourishment
OBJECTIVE:
Avoid coastal erosion + benefit coastal flooding prevention

CHARACTERISTICS:
Engineering measure (soft)
Usually combined with dune creation or restoration
Effective under mean conditions. Extreme events may require additional sediment
Fig. 1 Concepts of upgrading in which an increase in crest level is acceptable.

Hans F. Burcharth , Thomas Lykke Andersen , Javier L. Lara

Upgrade of coastal defence structures against increased loadings caused by climate change: A first methodological
approach
Coastal Engineering, Volume 87, 2014, 112 - 121

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.12.006
Fig. 2 Concepts of upgrading in which an increase in crest level is not acceptable.

Hans F. Burcharth , Thomas Lykke Andersen , Javier L. Lara

Upgrade of coastal defence structures against increased loadings caused by climate change: A first methodological
approach
Coastal Engineering, Volume 87, 2014, 112 - 121

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.12.006
NATURE-BASED SOLUTIONS FOR
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

Coral reefs
Salt marshes

Seagrasses Mangroves
Nature-based Features (NBF) are those that
may mimic characteristics of natural features
but are created by human design, engineering,
and construction to provide specific services
such as coastal risk reduction or adaptation.
Temmerman et al. (2013)
 Saunders et al. (2014)

a, Seagrass meadows and coral reefs form distinct ecosystems, yet often
live in close proximity in linked tropical marine ecosystems. b, Coral reefs
block and dissipate wave energy and permit seagrass, which is less wave
tolerant, to exist in protected lagoons. c, Deepening water from sea-level
rise will allow larger, more energetic waves to traverse the reef into the
lagoon, reducing habitat suitability for seagrass
ADAPTATION STRATEGY
M.D. Spalding et al. (2014)
M.D. Spalding et al. (2014)
Take home messages

• SLR is together with increasing ocean temperatura the most

important drivers of coastal risks

• The impact of SLR has to be analyzed jointly with other

climatic and nonclimatic drivers

• High resolution risk assessment is the first step towards

adaptation

• Flexible, timely adaptation and the use of ecosystem or

nature based solutions is strongly recommended
 ADAPTING TO SEA LEVEL RISE

Iñigo Losada Rodríguez

[email protected]
Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de Cantabria, “IH Cantabria”
Universidad de Cantabria