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Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing 866

Pandian Vasant
Ivan Zelinka
Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber Editors

Intelligent
Computing &
Optimization
Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing

Volume 866

Series editor
Janusz Kacprzyk, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
e-mail: [email protected]
The series “Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing” contains publications on theory,
applications, and design methods of Intelligent Systems and Intelligent Computing. Virtually all
disciplines such as engineering, natural sciences, computer and information science, ICT, economics,
business, e-commerce, environment, healthcare, life science are covered. The list of topics spans all the
areas of modern intelligent systems and computing such as: computational intelligence, soft computing
including neural networks, fuzzy systems, evolutionary computing and the fusion of these paradigms,
social intelligence, ambient intelligence, computational neuroscience, artificial life, virtual worlds and
society, cognitive science and systems, Perception and Vision, DNA and immune based systems,
self-organizing and adaptive systems, e-Learning and teaching, human-centered and human-centric
computing, recommender systems, intelligent control, robotics and mechatronics including
human-machine teaming, knowledge-based paradigms, learning paradigms, machine ethics, intelligent
data analysis, knowledge management, intelligent agents, intelligent decision making and support,
intelligent network security, trust management, interactive entertainment, Web intelligence and multimedia.
The publications within “Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing” are primarily proceedings
of important conferences, symposia and congresses. They cover significant recent developments in the
field, both of a foundational and applicable character. An important characteristic feature of the series is
the short publication time and world-wide distribution. This permits a rapid and broad dissemination of
research results.

Advisory Board
Chairman
Nikhil R. Pal, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India
e-mail: [email protected]
Members
Rafael Bello Perez, Universidad Central “Marta Abreu” de Las Villas, Santa Clara, Cuba
e-mail: [email protected]
Emilio S. Corchado, University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain
e-mail: [email protected]
Hani Hagras, University of Essex, Colchester, UK
e-mail: [email protected]
László T. Kóczy, Széchenyi István University, Győr, Hungary
e-mail: [email protected]
Vladik Kreinovich, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, USA
e-mail: [email protected]
Chin-Teng Lin, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan
e-mail: [email protected]
Jie Lu, University of Technology, Sydney, Australia
e-mail: [email protected]
Patricia Melin, Tijuana Institute of Technology, Tijuana, Mexico
e-mail: [email protected]
Nadia Nedjah, State University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
e-mail: [email protected]
Ngoc Thanh Nguyen, Wroclaw University of Technology, Wroclaw, Poland
e-mail: [email protected]
Jun Wang, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong
e-mail: [email protected]

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11156

Pandian Vasant Ivan Zelinka
•

Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber
Editors

Intelligent Computing &

Optimization

123
Editors
Pandian Vasant Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber
Department of Fundamental and Applied Institute of Applied Mathematics
Sciences METU
Universiti Teknologi Petronas Ankara, Ankara, Turkey
Tronoh, Perak, Malaysia

Ivan Zelinka
Faculty of Electrical Engineering
and Computer Science
VŠB TU Ostrava
Ostrava, Czech Republic

ISSN 2194-5357 ISSN 2194-5365 (electronic)

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing
ISBN 978-3-030-00978-6 ISBN 978-3-030-00979-3 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00979-3

Library of Congress Control Number: 2018955576

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part
of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission
or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar
methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from
the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
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for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to
jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Preface

The first edition of the International Conference on Intelligent Computing and

Optimization (ICO 2018) will be held during October 4–5, 2018, at Hard Rock
Hotel Pattaya in Pattaya, Thailand. The objective of the international conference is
to bring together the global research scholars, experts, and scientists in the research
areas of Intelligent Computing and Optimization from all over the world to share
their knowledge and experiences on the current research achievements in these
fields. This conference provides a golden opportunity for global research commu-
nity to interact and share their novel research results, findings, and innovative
discoveries among their colleagues and friends. The proceedings of ICO 2018 is
published by Springer (Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing) and
indexed by DBLP, EI, Google Scholar, Scopus, and Thomson ISI.
For this edition, the conference proceedings covered the innovative, original, and
creative research areas of sustainability, smart cities, meta-heuristics optimization,
cyber security, block chain, big data analytics, IoTs, renewable energy, artificial
intelligence, power systems, reliability, and simulation. The authors are very
enthusiastic to present the final presentation at the conference venue of Hard Rock
Hotel in Pattaya, Thailand. The organizing committee would like to sincerely thank
all the authors and the reviewers for their wonderful contribution for this confer-
ence. The best and high-quality papers have been selected and reviewed by
International Program Committee in order to publish in Advances in Intelligent
System and Computing by Springer.
ICO 2018 will be an eye-opener for the research scholars across the planet in the
research areas of innovative computing and novel optimization techniques and with
the cutting-edge methodologies. This conference could not have been organized
without the strong support and help from the staff members of Hard Rock Hotel
Pattaya, Springer, Click Internet Traffic Sdn Bhd, and the organizing committee of
ICO 2018. We would like to sincerely thank Prof. Igor Litvinchev (Nuevo Leon
State University (UANL), Mexico), Prof. Nikolai Voropai (Energy Systems
Institute SB RAS, Russia), and Waraporn Nimitsuphachaisin (Hard Rock Hotel
Pattaya) for their great help and support in organizing the conference.

v
vi Preface

We also appreciate the fruitful guidance and support from Prof. Gerhard
Wilhelm Weber (Poznan University of Technology, Poland; Middle East Technical
University, Turkey), Prof. Rustem Popa (“Dunarea de Jos” University in Galati,
Romania), Prof. Valeriy Kharchenko (Federal Scientific Agroengineering
Center VIM, Russia), Dr. Wonsiri Punurai (Mahidol University), Prof. Milun Babic
(University of Kragujevac, Serbia), Prof. Ivan Zelinka (VSB-TU Ostrava, Czech
Republic), Dr. Jose Antonio Marmolejo (Universidad Anahuac Mexico Norte,
Mexico), Prof. Gilberto Perez Lechuga (University of Autonomous of Hidalgo
State, Mexico), Prof. Ugo Fiore (Federico II University, Italy), Prof. Weerakorn
Ongsakul (Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand), Prof. Rui Miguel Silva
(Portugal), Mr. Sattawat Yamcharoew (Sparrow Energy Corporation, Thailand),
Mr. K. C. Choo (CO2 Networks, Malaysia), and Dr. Vinh T. Le (Ton Duc Thang
University, Vietnam).
Our book of proceedings provides a premium reference to graduate and post-
graduate students, decision makers, and investigators in private domains, univer-
sities, traditional and emerging industries, governmental and non-governmental
organizations, in the fields of various operational research, AI, geo- and earth
sciences, engineering, management, business, and finance, where ever one has to
represent and solve uncertainty-affected practical and real-world problems. In the
forthcoming times, mathematicians, statisticians, computer scientists, game theo-
rists and economists, physicist, chemists, representatives of civil, electrical, and
electronic engineering, but also biologists, scientists on natural resources, neuro-
scientists, social scientists, and representatives of the humanities, are warmly
welcome to enter into this discourse and join the collaboration for reaching even
more advanced and sustainable solutions. It is well understood that predictability in
uncertain environments is a core request and an issue in all fields of engineering,
science, and management. In this regard, this proceedings book is following a quite
new perspective; eventually, it has the promise to become very significant in both
academia and practice and very important for mankind!
Finally, we would like to sincerely thank Dr. Thomas Ditzinger, Dr. Almas
Schimmel, and Ms. Parvathi Krishnan of Springer for the wonderful help and
support in publishing ICO 2018 conference proceedings in Advances in Intelligent
Systems and Computing.

October 2018 Pandian Vasant

Gerhard-Wilhem Weber
Ivan Zelinka
Contents

А System for Monitoring the Number and Duration of Power Outages

and Power Quality in 0.38 kV Electrical Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Alexander Vinogradov, Vadim Bolshev, Alina Vinogradova,
Tatyana Kudinova, Maksim Borodin, Anastasya Selesneva,
and Nikolay Sorokin
A Novel Application of System Survival Signature in Reliability
Assessment of Offshore Structures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Tobias-Emanuel Regenhardt, Md Samdani Azad, Wonsiri Punurai,
and Michael Beer
Security Assurance Against Cybercrime Ransomware . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Habib ur Rehman, Eiad Yafi, Mohammed Nazir, and Khurram Mustafa
SAR: A Graph-Based System with Text Stream Burst
Detection and Visualization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Tham Vo Thi Hong and Phuc Do
Detection of Black Hole Attacks in Mobile Ad Hoc
Networks via HSA-CBDS Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Ahmed Mohammed Fahad, Abdulghani Ali Ahmed,
Abdullah H. Alghushami, and Sammer Alani
Network Intrusion Detection Framework Based on Whale Swarm
Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network in Cloud Computing . . . . . . . 56
Ahmed Mohammed Fahad, Abdulghani Ali Ahmed,
and Mohd Nizam Mohmad Kahar
The ‘Smart’ as a Project for the City Smart Technologies
for Territorial Management Planning Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Cinzia Bellone and Vasiliki Geropanta

vii
viii Contents

The ‘Governance’ for Smart City Strategies

and Territorial Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
Cinzia Bellone, Pietro Ranucci, and Vasiliki Geropanta
T-MPP: A Novel Topic-Driven Meta-path-Based Approach
for Co-authorship Prediction in Large-Scale Content-Based
Heterogeneous Bibliographic Network in Distributed Computing
Framework by Spark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Phuc Do, Phu Pham, Trung Phan, and Thuc Nguyen
Optimization of Hybrid Wind and Solar Renewable Energy System
by Iteration Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Diriba Kajela Geleta and Mukhdeep Singh Manshahia
Modeling of Solar Photovoltaic Thermal Modules . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
Vladimir Panchenko, Valeriy Kharchenko, and Pandian Vasant
Thermo Physical Principles of Cogeneration Technology
with Concentration of Solar Radiation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
Peter Nesterenkov and Valeriy Kharchenko
Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm for Solving the Knight’s
Tour Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Anan Banharnsakun
The Model of Optimization of Grain Drying with Use
of Eletroactivated Air . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
Dmitry Budnikov and Alexey N. Vasilev
Model of Improved a Kernel Fast Learning Network Based
on Intrusion Detection System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
Mohammed Hasan Ali and Mohamed Fadli Zolkipli
Vehicular Ad Hoc Network: An Intensive Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
Ayoob A. Ayoob, Gang Su, and Muamer N. Mohammed
Optimization of the Parameters of the Elastic Damping Mechanism
in Class 1,4 Tractor Transmission for Work in the Main
Agricultural Operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
Sergey Senkevich, Vladimir Kravchenko, Veronika Duriagina,
Anna Senkevich, and Evgeniy Vasilev
Energy-Efficient Pasteurizer of Liquid Products Using
IR and UV Radiation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
Dmitry Tikhomirov, Alexey Kuzmichev, Sergey Rastimeshin,
Stanislav Trunov, and Stepan Dudin
CAIAS Simulator: Self-driving Vehicle Simulator for AI Research . . . . 187
Sabir Hossain, Abdur R. Fayjie, Oualid Doukhi, and Deok-jin Lee
Contents ix

Vision-Based Driver’s Attention Monitoring System

for Smart Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
Lamia Alam and Mohammed Moshiul Hoque
Characterizing Current Features of Malicious Threats on Websites . . . 210
Wan Nurulsafawati Wan Manan, Abdul Ghani Ali Ahmed,
and Mohd Nizam Mohmad Kahar
A Deep Learning Framework on Generation of Image Descriptions
with Bidirectional Recurrent Neural Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
J. Joshua Thomas and Naris Pillai
Feature of Operation PV Installations with Parallel and Mixed
Commutation Photocells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
Pavel Kuznetsov and Leonid Yuferev
The Functional Dependencies of the Drying Coefficient for the Use
in Modeling of Heat and Moisture-Exchange Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
Alexey N. Vasilyev, Alexey A. Vasilyev, and Dmitriy A. Budnikov
Investigation Model for Locating Data Remnants on Cloud Storage . . . 246
Khalid Abdulrahman, Abdulghani Ali Ahmed,
and Muamer N. Mohammed
An Intelligent Expert System for Management Information System
Failure Diagnosis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
Kamal Mohammed Alhendawi and Ala Aldeen Al-Janabi
Fuzz Test Case Generation for Penetration Testing in Mobile Cloud
Computing Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267
Ahmad Salah Al-Ahmad and Hasan Kahtan
Application of Travelling Salesman Problem for Minimizing Travel
Distance of a Two-Day Trip in Kuala Lumpur via Go KL City Bus . . . 277
Wan Nor Ashikin Wan Ahmad Fatthi, Mea Haslina Mohd Haris,
and Hasan Kahtan
An Analysis of Structure Heterogeneity of Lithium Silicate Melts . . . . . 285
Vu Tri Vien, Mai Van Dung, Nguyen Manh Tuan, Tran Thanh Nam,
and Le The Vinh
Mathematical Modeling of the Work of the Flow-Meter
Flowmeter-Doser . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293
Alexey N. Vasilyev, Alexey A. Vasilyev, Dmitry A. Shestov,
Denis V. Shilin, and Pavel E. Ganin
Framework for Faction of Data in Social Network Using Link Based
Mining Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300
B. Bazeer Ahamed and D. Yuvaraj
x Contents

Application of Various Computer Tools for the Optimization

of the Heat Pump Heating Systems with Extraction of Low-Grade
Heat from Surface Watercourses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310
A. Sychov, V. Kharchenko, P. Vasant, and G. Uzakov
Epilepsy Detection from EEG Signals Using Artificial
Neural Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 320
Amer A. Sallam, Muhammad Nomani Kabir, Abdulghani Ali Ahmed,
Khalid Farhan, and Ethar Tarek
Evaluation of the Silicon Solar Cell Parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 328
Valeriy Kharchenko, Boris Nikitin, Pavel Tikhonov, Vladimir Panchenko,
and Pandian Vasant
Optimization of Microclimate Parameters Inside
Livestock Buildings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337
Gennady N. Samarin, Alexey N. Vasilyev, Alexander A. Zhukov,
and Sergey V. Soloviev
Blockchain Technology in Smart City: A New Opportunity for Smart
Environment and Smart Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 346
F. Orecchini, A. Santiangeli, F. Zuccari, Alessandra Pieroni,
and Tiziano Suppa
Trend Detection Analyses of Rainfall of Whole India for the Time
Period 1950–2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355
Sanju R. Phulpagar, Sudhansu S. Mohanta, and Ganesh D. Kale
Multi-criteria Decision Making Problems in Hierarchical Technology
of Electric Power System Expansion Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362
N. I. Voropai
Insight into Microstructure of Lead Silicate Melts from Molecular
Dynamics Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369
Thanh-Nam Tran, Nguyen Van Yen, Mai Van Dung, Tran Thanh Dung,
Huynh Van Van, and Le The Vinh
A Strategy for Minimum Time Equilibrium Targetting
in Epidemic Diseases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 376
Manuel De la Sen, Asier Ibeas, Santiago Alonso-Quesada, and Raul Nistal
A Hybrid Approach for the Prevention of Railway Accidents Based
on Artificial Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383
Habib Hadj-Mabrouk
Visual Analytics Solution for Scheduling Processing Phases . . . . . . . . . . 395
J. Joshua Thomas, Bahari Belaton, Ahamad Tajudin Khader, and Justtina
Contents xi

Investigation of Emotions on Purchased Item Reviews Using Machine

Learning Techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 409
P. K. Kumar, S. Nandagopalan, and L. N. Swamy
Algorithms for a Bit-Vector Encoding of Trees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 418
Kaoutar Ghazi, Laurent Beaudou, and Olivier Raynaud
Dynamic Programming Solution to ATM Cash Replenishment
Optimization Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 428
Fazilet Ozer, Ismail Hakki Toroslu, Pinar Karagoz, and Ferhat Yucel
Prediction of Crop Yields Based on Fuzzy Rule-Based System (FRBS)
Using the Takagi Sugeno-Kang Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 438
Kalpesh Borse and Prasit G. Agnihotri
Land Use Land Cover Analysis of Khapri Watershed in Dang
District Using Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information
System (GIS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 448
Ashish Guruji and Prasit Agnihotri
Recovery Method of Supply Chain Under Ripple Effect: Supply Chain
Event Management (SCEM) Application . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 455
Fanny Palma, Jania A. Saucedo, and José A. Marmolejo
Investigating the Reproducibility and Generality of the Pilot
Environmental Performance Index (EPI 2006) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 466
Tatiana Tambouratzis, Angela Mathioudaki, and Kyriaki Bardi
New Smart Power Management Hybrid System
Photovoltaic-Fuel Cell . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 476
Mohammed Tarik Benmessaoud, A. Boudghene Stambouli,
Pandian Vasant, S. Flazi, H. Koinuma, and M. Tioursi
Deep Convolutional Network Based Saliency Prediction for Retrieval
of Natural Images . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 487
Shanmugam Nandagopalan and Pandralli K. Kumar
Optimization of Parameters and Operation Modes of the Heat Pump
in the Environment of the Low-Temperature Energy Source . . . . . . . . . 497
Evgenia Tutunina, Alexey Vaselyev, Sergey Korovkin,
and Sergey Senkevich
A Data Confidentiality Approach to SMS on Android . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 505
Tun Myat Aung, Kaung Htet Myint, and Ni Ni Hla
Analysis of Attribute-Based Secure Data Sharing with Hidden Policies
in Smart Grid of IoT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 515
Nishant Doshi
xii Contents

A Single Allocation P-Hub Maximal Covering Model for Optimizing

Railway Station Location . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 522
Sunarin Chanta and Ornurai Sangsawang
Path-Relinking for Fire Station Location . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 531
Titima Srianan and Ornurai Sangsawang
Modeling and Optimization of Flexible Manufacturing Systems:
A Stochastic Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 539
Gilberto Pérez Lechuga and Francisco Martínez Sánchez
Monkey Algorithm for Packing Circles with Binary Variables . . . . . . . 547
Rafael Torres-Escobar, José Antonio Marmolejo-Saucedo, Igor Litvinchev,
and Pandian Vasant
Machine Learning Applied to the Measurement of Quality
in Health Services in Mexico: The Case of the Social Protection
in Health System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 560
Roman Rodriguez-Aguilar, Jose Antonio Marmolejo-Saucedo,
and Pandian Vasant
Author Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 573
 А System for Monitoring the Number
and Duration of Power Outages and Power
Quality in 0.38 kV Electrical Networks

Alexander Vinogradov1, Vadim Bolshev1(&), Alina Vinogradova1,

Tatyana Kudinova2, Maksim Borodin2, Anastasya Selesneva2,
and Nikolay Sorokin2
1
Federal Scientific Agroengineering Centre VIM, 1-St Institutsky Proezd, 5,
109428 Moscow, Russia
{winaleksandr,alinawin}@rambler.ru,
[email protected]
2
Orel State Agrarian University named after N.V. Parakhin, General Rodin Str.,
69, 302019 Orel, Russia
{t.kudinova77,anastasiya.selezneva.1995}@mail.ru,
[email protected], [email protected]

Abstract. The proposed system for monitoring number and duration of power
outages and power quality in 0.38 kV power networks makes it possible to
shorten the power supply restoration time by approximately one hour by
reducing the time for obtaining information about the damage and by approx-
imately one hour by the reduction of the time for determining the location and
type of damage. Besides, the effect can also be obtained by minimizing power
quality inconsistency time with the standardized values. The sensors of the
monitoring system are proposed to be located at customer inputs or at several
network points, for example, at the beginning, in the middle or at the end of the
power network as well as at the transformer substation bus bars.

Keywords: Power supply reliability
Power quality

Monitoring power supply reliability
Monitoring power quality
Power supply restoration time

1 Introduction

The power supply system efficiency can be assessed by the indices of power supply
reliability and power quality. The methods and means for improving power supply
reliability and power quality (PQ) [1, 2] are considered in publications of different
authors. As such measures the use of the technical condition monitoring of transmis-
sion lines and network equipment operating modes are considered, which makes it
possible to identify and prevent the causes of failures in the networks [3–5]. Much
attention is paid to the development of technical and economic mechanisms to stim-
ulate consumers and electric grid companies to increase power quality parameters [6].
The works of both Russian and foreign researchers are devoted to this subject [7–16].

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

P. Vasant et al. (Eds.): ICO 2018, AISC 866, pp. 1–10, 2019.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00979-3_1
2 A. Vinogradov et al.

2 Materials and Methods

Structure analysis of power supply restoration time after network failures made it
possible [17, 18] to determine it by the formula:

trest: ¼ tinf :obt: þ tinf :rec: þ trep: þ tharmonize ð1Þ

where tinf :obt: is the time of infornation obtaining, h.; tinf :rec: is the time for information
recognizing, h.; trep: is the time for repairing damage, h.; tharmonize is the time to
harmonize connection and disconnection, h.
The power supply restoration time can be reduced significantly by the implemen-
tation of a monitoring systems that controls the power outages and the voltage devi-
ation and automatically informs the dispatcher about the outages on specific network
sections.
The damage from power supply outages of consumers depends on the duration of
power outage in a network supplying consumers and the type of disconnected con-
sumers [19, 20]. The causes of outages may be wire breaks in any part of the power
lines, short circuits in the line, a power failure on the 10 kV side etc. Depending on the
cause, outages can occur either for all consumers connected to the network under
consideration, or for a part of consumers, for example, when a wire breaks. The more
sensors of outages and voltage deviations the monitoring system has, the more infor-
mative it is, the more situations in the monitored network can be recognized. The most
rational option is the installation of the sensors at the input of each consumer. But this
variant of sensor placement can lead to a rise in the cost of a system, therefore, in case
of insufficient budget the sensors can be installed in several points of the network, for
example at the beginning, in the middle and at the end of the transmission line as well
as on the buses of the transformer substation. This will allow having the information
about the status of the whole network and monitoring the main network parameters on
its different section.
In works [6, 21] it was justified that the sensors for monitoring power quality
indices were worth to install at customer inputs as well as the sensors of power supply
reliability. It is proposed to control the parameters of power quality using information
obtained from these sensors. The combination of monitoring of power supply outages
and power quality indices along with the automated measuring and the electric power
fiscal (or technical) accounting is promising. Theoretically, such an opportunity exists.
At present, a rather wide range of metering devices equipped with means to monitor
power outages and power quality is produced. This is a series of MAYAK meters,
meters of signal frequency receivers equipped with the corresponding functions. But
practically these possibilities are not used. Firstly, this is due to the impossibility to
read and send the specified information remotely via AMISEPFA channels because
they are used only for power consumption data transmission. The information about
power outages in these meters are only stored in the meter archive. Secondly, the use of
meters equipped with all the necessary capabilities is quite expensive. They are several
times more expensive than meters transmitting data only about power consumption. In
addition, consumer energy meters send information about power outages occurring in
the internal consumer network without getting information about their reasons.
 А System for Monitoring the Number and Duration 3

Although power outages might be caused by switching off in the external network,
tripouting a switching device at the customer input or even the disconnection by the
customer for servicing the wiring.

3 Results

A variant of the sensor location scheme that allows taking into account number and
duration of power outages as well as the voltage deviation is shown in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1. Scheme of the device for monitoring number and duration of power outages and voltage
deviation level at the consumer inputs.

The sensor circuit (Fig. 1) contains the switching device SD 1, the voltage sensor
VS 2, the overvoltage sensor OVS 13, the undervoltage sensor UVS 14, the short-
circuit sensor SCS 4, the overload sensor OLS 5, the information processing unit IPU
10, the NOT 3 element, the NOT 7 element, the OR 6 element, the AND 8 element, the
element Memory 9, Data Acquisition and Transmission Device DATD 11, the data
from which are transferred to the the electric grid company dispatcher EGCD 12.
In the normal operation mode there is voltage in the power transmission line
supplying a consumer and there is no overload or short circuit in the internal network of
the consumer. Thus the signal is present at the output of the voltage sensor VS 2 and
there is no signal at the outputs of the elements SCS 4 and OLS 5. There is also no
signal from the outputs of the sensors OVS 13 and UVS 14. In this case, the output of
NOT7 is signaled to one of the inputs of the AND 8 element, and there is no signal at
the outputs of the elements NOT 3, OR 6, AND 8, Memory 8, Memory 11. In this case,
the signal from the output of the voltage sensor VS 2 is sent to reset the element
Memory 9. The circuit does not start.
At the moment of failure in the transmission line, the voltage at the consumer input
disappears, that is, the signal from the output of the element VS 2 disappears.
Accordingly the signal appears at the output of NOT 3, which is fed to the input of the
AND 8 element. If there are no signals at the sensor outputs the short-circuit current of
the SCS 4 and the overload sensor OLS 5, the signal at the output of the NOT 7
element is present and fed to the second input of the AND 8 element. At both inputs
AND 8 there are signals, hence a signal will appear at its output, which will be
4 A. Vinogradov et al.

memorized by the Memory 9 element and transmitted to the information processing

unit IPU 10. The IPU 10 stores the fact of power outages and its duration. The
disconnection signal is transmitted via the DATD 11 to the electric grid company
dispatcher (EGCD 12). When the voltage in the transmission line is restored, the VS 2
sensor will detect its presence, the signal with VS 2 will “reset” the element Memory 9,
the circuit will return to its original state.
In case if a short-circuit current appears in the consumer’s internal network and
after its disappearing there is the voltage in the power line, the circuit will work as
follows. At the moment of the short-circuit current appearance at the output of the SCS
4 element there will be a signal which will be fed to the input of the OR 6 element and
from its output to the input of the NOT 7 element and also to the information pro-
cessing unit IPU 10. IPU 10 unit fixes the facts of the short-circuit current and over-
loads in the internal network of the consumer. At the output of the element NOT 7, the
signal during the period of the presence of short-circuit current will be absent. At the
same time the short-circuit current in the consumer network will cause a failure in the
input voltage. As a result, the signal will disappear at the output of the sensor VS 2 and
at the output of the element NOT 3 the signal appears that it will feed one of the inputs
of the element AND 8. But the signal at the AND 8 output will not appear because of
the signal absence at its second input. After the short-circuit current has disappeared
because of the switching device disconnection, the signal from the SCS 4 output will
disappear as well. The voltage level at the input will return, a signal will appear at the
output of the VS 2 and the signal at the output of the NOT 3 will disappear. The circuit
will not start. Thus in this operation mode the block IPU 10 will detect the fact of a
short circuit in the consumer network without switching off the input voltage.
In case if short circuit current occures in the internal network of the consumer and
there is non-selective tripping of the switch installed in the power line, the circuit will
work as follows. At the moment of the appearance of the short circuit current, at the
output of the element SCS 4 there will be a signal that will be fed to the input of the OR
6 element. A signal from the OR 6 element will be sent to the input of the element NOT
7 and to the information processing unit IPU 10. unit IPU 10 fixes the facts of short
circuit and overloading in the internal network of the consumer. At the output of the
element NOT 7 the signal during the period of the short-circuit current will be absent.
At the same time a short circuit in the consumer’s network will cause a voltage drop at
the input. As a result the signal will disappear at the output of the VS 2 sensor and will
appear at the output of the element NOT 3 and be fed to one of the inputs of the AND 8
element. Due to the absence of a signal at its second input during the short-circuit
current flow the element AND 8 will not work and the signal at its output will not
appear. Also, the signal will appear at the output of the UVS 14 element and will be fed
to the IPU 10. After the short-circuit current has disappeared due to the disconnection
of the switching device installed in the power line, the signal from the output of the
SCS 4 will disappear. But due to the nonselective disconnection of the switching
device in the line, the voltage at the consumer input will disappear as well. Therefore,
the signal at the output of the VS 2 will not appear and the signal at the output of the
NOT 3 will not disappear. Thus, signals will be fed to both inputs of AND 8, and a
signal will appear at its output. This signal, memorized by the element Memory 9, will
be fed to the input of the block IPU 10. The fact and duration of the voltage outage at
 А System for Monitoring the Number and Duration 5

the consumer input will be fixed by this unit. Also, in this operation mode the block
IPU 10 will detect a short circuit in the customer network. The information about these
facts will be stored in the IPU and will be transmitted through the DATD and the
corresponding data transmitting channel to the dispatcher.
If there is an overload in the internal network of the consumer and after its dis-
appearance the voltage in the transmission line does not disappear, the circuit will work
as follows. At the moment of the overload current appearance a signal will appear at the
output of the element OLS 5 which will be fed to the input of the element OR 6. From
the output of the element OR 6 the signal will come to the input of the element NOT 7
as well as to the information processing unit IPU 10, which fixes the facts of the short
circuit and overloads in the consumer internal network. During the presence of the
overload current the signal at the output of the element NOT 7 will be absent. At the
output of the sensor VS 2 the signal will not disappear, so a signal at the output of the
element NOT 3 will not appear. Because there is no signal on one of the inputs, the
element AND 8 will not work and there will be no the signal at its output. After a
consumer switching device get be disconnected the overload current will disappear and
the signal from the output of OLS 5 disappears as well. Thus, in this operation mode
the IPU 10 unit will record the fact of an overload in the consumer’s network without
switching off the input voltage.
The situation where there is the non-selective disconnection of a power line
switching device during an overload in the consumer network is generally analogous to
the situation of non-selective triggering of the switching device during a short circuit in
the consumer network The difference is that the input signal of the element OR 6 will
be fed from the sensor OLS 5 instead of the element SCS 4. In this case the block IPU
10 will fix a disconnection in the line as well as an overload in the consumer network.
Both the history of accounting number and duration of power outages and the facts
of short circuits and overloads in the consumer network are stored in the memory of
IPU 10 in the form of protocols; all these data can be transferred to the dispatching
office of the electric grid company.
In case of exceeding the voltage deviation level in one or another side of the
normalized value, a signal will appear at the output of the high-voltage sensors OVS 13
or the low-voltage sensors UVS 14, which will be transmitted to the IPU 10 and further
to the dispatching office of the electric grid company.
Thus, the supposed device supports automatic calculation of the amount of the
consumed power, accounting of the number and duration of power outages, monitoring
and recording of emergency situations in the consumer network along with and voltage
drops in the consumer electrical network. The information on the discrepancy of the
voltage deviation is sent to the block IPU 10 and transmitted by means of the data
transfer device via one of the channels (PLC, JPS, JPRS, Glonass, radio…) to the
electric grid company dispatcher (EGCD 12).
Using the devices mentioned above the system for monitoring number and duration
of power outages and the power quality in electrical networks of 0.38 kV can be
performed as follows. The sensors for monitoring power quality indices and sensors for
recording number and duration of power outages can be installed at the consumer
inputs (in the simplest case only the level of voltage deviation at the customer input can
be used as a monitored power quality index). Both types of sensors can be combined
6 A. Vinogradov et al.

into one device (for example, a device for monitoring number and duration of power
outages and voltage deviation - DMNDCandVD).
The information from the DMNDCandVD goes to the data processing unit and is
transmitted by means of the data transfer device via one of the channels to the electric
grid company dispatcher (EGCD) (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2. System for monitoring the quantuty and duration of power outages and the power quality
in 0.38 kV electrical networks

According to the Fig. 2 TS is a Transformer Substation; DMNDCandVD is the

Device for Monitoring Number and Duration of Power Outages and Voltage Deviation;
S1… Sn are Consumers; EGCD is the Electric Grid Company Dispatcher; DATD is the
Data Acquisition and Transmission Device.
The system works as follows. The information from the DMNDCandVD of each
consumer is collected in the DATD and sent to the EGCD. There on the basis of this
information a company dispatcher make decisions about the need for voltage regulation
or for sending a repair team. The DMNDCandVD is also installed at the TS and
connected to TS buses. This device monitors voltage deviation and voltage loss on the
TS buses. The information about this is transmitted to the EGCD by means of the
DATD. The DMNDCandVD installed on outgoing transmission lines from the TS
work similarly. They are connected after the automatic switches of outgoing trans-
mission lines and monitor voltage disappearance, voltage deviation at the beginning of
the transmission lines. If a power scheme do not has a back-up power and the moni-
toring task of voltage deviation is not required, the control of power outages can be
made cheaper by installing voltage monitoring devices on transformer substation buses
and on outgoing lines. In this case the voltage disappearance on the transmission line
shows electricity supply interruption for the consumers connected to it. The voltage
 А System for Monitoring the Number and Duration 7

disappearance on the transformer substation buses shows the power supply interruption
for all consumers connected to the TS. But this method is not acceptable if transmission
lines are equipped with means of automatic transfer switch, partitioning means and if it
is also necessary to control voltage deviation level at consumer inputs. Therefore, the
system version where all consumers inputs are equipped with the DMNDCandVD are
more justified since it is more functional and allows identifying some network modes
other ways cannot detect. For example, if a wire (of a phase) breaks in the area between
consumers S2 and S3, the signal from the DMNDCandVD installed at the consumer S3
will show the voltage failure presence and the DMNDCandVD installed at the con-
sumer S2 will indicate that the voltage is present. Thus, the system for monitoring
number and duration of power outages will find the place of the break.

4 Discussions

The economic efficiency of the system application can vary depending on the tasks
assigned to it. The system application of monitoring the number and duration of power
outages allows obtaining an economic effect mainly by reducing the power supply
restoration time. In this case the recovery time based on the analysis of works [18, 22]
can be shorten by approximately one hour by reducing the time for obtaining infor-
mation about the damage and by approximately one hour by the reduction of the time
for determining the location and type of damage. In total, the recovery time can be
reduced by approximately 2 h. In determining the effect it is also necessary to take into
account the reliability indices of the network under discussion since they can be dif-
ferent depending on whether the cable or overhead lines which are used in either urban
or rural areas [2].
The effect of reducing the power supply restoration time can be determined as
follows. First, it is required to estimate the failure probability in the considered net-
works during a year. In papers [23, 24] there is literature data on the failure rate for
0.38 kV networks. According to them the failure intensity for 0.38 kV power networks
is 2.7 failures per 100 km during a year, for power transformers is 3.5 failures per
100 km during a year, for the 10 kV overhead lines is 35.9 failures per 100 km during
a year.
For 0.38 kV overhead lines with a length LOL and failure rate of 2.7 failures per
100 km during a year the probable number of failures per year is determined as follows:

2:7  LOL
NOL ¼ failures per year: ð2Þ
100

For power transformers with number ntr and failure rate 3,5 failures per 100 km
during a year the probable number of failures per year is determined as follows:

3:5  nTR
NTR ¼ failures per year: ð3Þ
100
8 A. Vinogradov et al.

The failures number per year for other network elements can be determined
similarly.
The next step is to determine the electricity shortage per year for a given number of
failures for power supply system elements.
The power undersupply is determined by the formula:

Wundersupply ¼ N  Tav  Prat ð4Þ

where Prat - rated power of the load connected to the faulty equipment; Tav - the
average power supply restoration time, which according to [13] is equal to 5.86 h.
The reduction of power undersupply is defined as follows:

Wred: ¼ Wundersupply  Wundersupply:l: ð5Þ

where Wundersupply:l: – power undersupply when implementing a monitoring system.

In the above sequence, it is possible to assess the economic damage caused by the
power undersupply to consumers during power outages.
If there is voltage deviation monitoring, the effect of reducing the power supply
restoration time will be added by a number of effects achieved by observing network
voltage regime, which does not deviate beyond the normative values. The calculation
of this effect is described in [25] in detail.

5 Conclusions
1. It is possible to increase power supply system efficiency by monitoring number and
duration of power outages and power quality in 0.38 kV electrical networks. The
proposed system for monitoring number and duration of power outages and power
quality makes it possible to shorten the power supply restoration time and to obtain
the necessary data on network operating modes and network failures.
2. The sensors for monitoring power outages and power quality are proposed to be
located at the consumer inputs or at several network points, for example at the
beginning, in the middle and at the end of transmission lines as well as on trans-
former substation buses. It makes it possible to expand the system informativeness
and the possibilities of using it to diagnose failures in a controlled network.
3. Economic efficiency of the system is achieved mainly by reducing the power supply
restoration time. The power supply restoration time can be reduced by approxi-
mately 1 h by reducing the time for obtaining information about the damage and
approximately 1 h by reducing the time for determining the location and the type of
damage. Thus, the recovery time on average can be reduced by 2 h. Besides, the
effect can also be obtained by minimizing power quality inconsistency time with the
standardized values.
 А System for Monitoring the Number and Duration 9

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 A Novel Application of System Survival
Signature in Reliability Assessment
of Offshore Structures

Tobias-Emanuel Regenhardt1 , Md Samdani Azad2(B) , Wonsiri Punurai2 ,

and Michael Beer1
1
Institute for Risk and Reliability, Leibniz University Hanover, Callinstrasse 34,
30167 Hanover, Germany
[email protected]
2
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Mahidol University,
25/25 Putthamonthon, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand
[email protected]

Abstract. Offshore platforms are large structures consisting of a

large number of components of various types. Thus a variety of
methods are usually necessary to assess the structural reliability of
these structures, ranging from Finite-Elements-methods to Monte-Carlo-
Simulations. However, often reliability information is only available for
the members and not for the overall, complex, system. The recently intro-
duced survival signature provides a way to separate the structural analy-
sis from the behaviour of the individual members. Thus it is then possible
to use structural reliability methods to obtain information about how the
failure of several constituent members of the offshore platform leads to
overall system failure. This way it is possible to separate the structural
from time-dependent information, allowing flexible and computationally
efficient computation of reliability predictions.

Keywords: Structural reliability · Offshore platforms

Survival signature · System reliability

1 Introduction
Offshore jacket platforms are generally used for oil and gas production in shal-
low and intermediate water depths. Adequate performance of the platforms is
ensured by designing for a service life. However, a large numbers of these steel
structures are operating exceeded their design life due to high cost of replace-
ment. Consequently, the safety of these offshore platforms creates strong reasons
to develop effective methods for the reliability assessment.
For large offshore structures, reliability measures usually concern the struc-
tural reliability under the impact of external influences such as fatigue, and cor-
rosion environment. As structural reliability concerns the behavior of an object
under physical conditions, a safety assessment should prove that the risk of
c Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019
P. Vasant et al. (Eds.): ICO 2018, AISC 866, pp. 11–20, 2019.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00979-3_2
12 T.-E. Regenhardt et al.

structural failure is acceptable. The standard methods give some indications,

such as design code, reserve strength ratio, and a probabilistic value. Design
codes are claimed to be very conservative, as more knowledge of the structure is
gained through some years after design thereby leading to more accurate anal-
ysis results. Methods based on reserve strength ratio can provide insight into
the reserve strength of a structure [12]. The reserve strength ratio (RSR) can
be obtained from the ratio of ultimate load capacity of the structure divided
by the 100 year design load. But it will not cover possible failure modes that
could happen to the structure as it provides information regarding the global
failure phenomenon as well. Structural reliability methods typically account for
the capacity versus loading, particularly deal with uncertainties of structural
loads and their effects as well as resistance [14].
Reliability theories basically developed from the concepts of uncertainties
(wind, wave and earthquake). An incremental loading approach till the ulti-
mate capacity was conducted for structural reliability is delineated. However,
the structural reliability methods are not sufficient measures as they are not
consistent with the derivation of the reliability target levels. This is because the
reliability assessments deliberates the reliability considering the intensity of envi-
ronmental conditions (Loads, Corrosion) but not give enough information over
time rather these provide information over fixed time. To reduce risk, a better
approach is to consider all functional parts of the structure, if present (facili-
ties on offshore platforms, the connections between platforms, pipes, dominant
failure modes etc.), exploring patterns and inter-relationships within subsystems
and seeing undesired events as the products of the working of the system. Some
conventional tools have been used including Failure Tree Analysis (FTA) [11],
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) [9], recently, researchers are pay-
ing more attention to the statistical techniques. For instance, grey correlation
analysis [2], Bayesian Probability [19], Neural network [21], Fuzzy logic evalu-
ation [8,20] and survival signature computing [4] have been applied to the risk
assessments in engineering and related fields.
The aim of this paper is to contribute to offshore reliability assessment by
using the recently developed survival signature formalism [4]. With this formal-
ism it is possible to predict the reliability of a complex system (as, in this case,
an offshore platform) from knowledge about the individual constituents (the
platform members). With this, it is possible to divide the reliability assessment
into two individual steps. Firstly the system structural system is analysed. This
is achieved through finding the combinations of failing members that lead to
total failure of the whole offshore platform. Secondly, the information about the
members’ reliability over time is multiplied with the corresponding entries of the
survival signature to predict the overall reliability.
 A Novel Application of System Survival Signature 13

2 The Survival Signature

2.1 System Reliability Applying the Survival Signature
The state of a any system set together of m independent and different compo-
m
nents can be represented by a state vector x ∈ {0, 1} with xi = 0 denoting a
dysfunctional and xi = 1 a functional component i.
m
The global structure function ϕ : {0, 1} → {0, 1} contains information
whether the system is in a working state (ϕ = 1) or not (ϕ = 0 ) for any possible
x. Usually the observed systems are restricted to coherent systems. This refers to
systems with ϕ not decreasing in any dimension of x. This assumption is sound
as most common systems are not becoming dysfunctional while gaining more
functional components. Two additional assumptions are ϕ(0) = 0 and ϕ(1) = 1.
These are intuitive, yet not necessary. However, in this paper the monotonicity
of the system is assumed and thus these two conditions and the coherency of the
system are assumed as well.
For more complex systems, every component belongs to one of K different
types, while each set of components of type k ∈ {1, 2, ..., K} consists of mk
K
elements and the sum of all mk equals the number of components k=1 = m.
The amount of functional components of type k present in the system are denoted
as lk . This leads to mlkk possible combinations of component type k under
the assumption of independent failure of all components. Then the set S(l) is
the collection of all state vectors that fulfil the condition that l = (l1 , l2 , ..., lk )
components are working. The system’s survival signature Φ is now defined as
the probability that the system is functional if exactly lk components of type
k are functional [23]. The survival signature is an array of K dimensions with
mk +1 entries in each dimension (including the case that none of the components
of that type function). For components with exchangeable random failure times
the survival signature is given by
 K   −1
 lk
Φ(l1 , l2, .., lK ) = × ϕ(x). (1)
i=1
mk
x∈S(l)

The survival signature can be applied to the computation of the survival

function of the system: P (TS > t). It provides the probability that a random
failure time TS of the system follows a specific point in time t. This provides the
reliability of the system in time. Under the assumption of the failure times of the
components being independently and identically distributed (iid ), with respect
to a known cumulative distribution function [15]. Fk (t), the survival function of
the system observed is found to be
m0 mk
 K  
 lk l
P (TS > t) = ... Φ(l) × Fk (t)mk −lk [1 − Fk (t)] k . (2)
mk
l1 =0 lk =0 k=1

Equations (1) and (2) indicate show that - for exact computation - many
different states need to be evaluated and that the size of the survival signature
14 T.-E. Regenhardt et al.

itself is growing multilinearly. However, for small- and medium-sized systems

the survival signature can be calculated exactly or by Monte Carlo Simulation
methods. The use of signature frameworks can be useful in several ways. It
seperates the information about the system in two subproblems to be solved. If
the system structure is unchanged, the survival signature stays the same even
if the behaviour of the components changes. Thus testing of components in
simulations is computationally efficient. Additionally, additions to the framework
can easily be done, for example in case of repairable systems [22] or in case of
components with multiple states [5].

2.2 Obtaining the Survival Signature from Structural Simulations

The calculation of the Φ necessitate knowledge about the behaviour of the system
under failure of the components. Usually due to complexity, an explicit global
structure function is often not given. Instead, the states of the system can be
evaluated by various means, including reliability block diagrams and cut-sets,
binary decision diagrams, and failure tree analysis [17].
With reliability block diagrams, it is simple to visualize the behaviour of small
systems. However, the search of cut-sets in a block diagram is NP-hard and can
be very time consuming [18]. Binary decision diagrams can provide fast means
to calculate the survival signature once the decision diagram data structure is
available. However, the calculation of the decision diagram is also dependent on
finding the cut-sets of the system and can be, inherently, slow.
For structural reliability, one is usually concerned with the behaviour of a
structure under load. Thus the interaction of the various components is not
modelled in any way described above - instead, the structure is modelled and
analysed in frameworks of mechanical simulation methods (commonly, finite ele-
ments methods) concerned with the actual physical behaviour.
In this work, a bridge over this gap is presented. A large structure consists
of several, possibly redundant, components. This means that the system might
still be operational after the failure of some of the components. Thus, structural
simulation can show various failure modes of the system under load. If a struc-
tural simulation of the structure results in a failing component, the structure is
updated and the simulation started again. This is repeated until the simulation
results show that the structure is failing in total. All failed components until
this point are saved in a failure mode. By variation of the load parameters, all
components prone to failure are identified and several failure modes are identi-
fied. These failure modes can be used as cut-sets in computation of the survival
signature. Equation (1) can be evaluated using these cut-sets to compute the
values of ϕ(x) for all x (exact computation) or a representative sample (Monte
Carlo Simulation). In this study, the Monte-Carlo approach was used as the
amount of combinations to be checked is of medium size. The largest amount of
combinations that is possible is for the entry placed directly in the middle of the
 3  
array ( 32 · 84 = 1890). Thus a sample size of 2000 samples was used.
 A Novel Application of System Survival Signature 15

3 Reliability of an Offshore Jacket Platform

3.1 Structural Model

The jacket platform is taken from [16]. The Jacket is designed for shallow water
depth of approximately 65.31 m. It is a 4-legged jacket containing pile inside
the legs. The jacket is modeled as 2 × 2 square grid. The overall dimensions are
8 × 8 m at top elevation and 21.76 × 21.76 m at the mud line. The total height is
81 m. Two types of bracings are used named as horizontal bracings and vertical
bracings. The horizontal bracings are installed at five levels. The vertical bracings
are provided as single bracings till the bottom level. At the bottom level, it was
provided as K-bracings to impart more stiffness and reduce buckling. The jacket
support/foundation is modelled as fixed support system. The jacket is modelled
in SAP2000 as shown in Fig. 1. Member properties of the jacket are also taken
from [16]. The top mass of the oil and gas platform is simplified as a lumped
mass for the easiness finite element modelling. The total weight of the topside
is assumed as 1250 tons, which is equally applied over four legs where each leg,
is carrying 312.5 tons at the top nodes of the jacket structures platform.

Fig. 1. (a) Three-dimensional model of the jacket (b) Grouping of the components

3.2 Generation of Failure Tress

Non-linear static (pushover) analysis is performed to understand the behaviour

of structure against lateral load pattern following the procedure of FEMA356
[6,9]. The behaviour of the force displacement curve can be observed from the
analysis as well. In this step, the structure is incrementally loaded over its yield-
ing capacity and to observe the ultimate load level. The failed elements are
16 T.-E. Regenhardt et al.

recorded up to the ultimate load level. Here the damage level is not considered
because the aim is to grasp the failure behaviour of members up to ultimate
load level. Here the term failure behaviour is defined as how the member fails
chronologically and which member is followed by another member. Load has
been applied along three different directions comprising of 0◦ , 90◦ and 45◦ . The
typical pushover curve is shown in Fig. 2 which is adopted from FEMA356 [6]
and the ultimate load level is the point ‘C’. The failure tree can be observed in
Fig. 3.

Fig. 2. Non-linear force curve

Fig. 3. Failure tree of the offshore platform under various loads

The tree is generated for three different load directions. For zero degree of
direction, the first damage is observed in member 26. After that, this member
is followed by members 31, 41, 30, 27, 38, and 49. When the damage initiates
in member 49, the load level reached the ultimate level. For 90◦ direction, the
Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
fruitless controversies, the consequence whereof are jealousies,
heart-burnings, exasperation of parties, the introduction of
factions and national quarrels into matters of religion, and
consequently all the calamities of war and devastation. Besides,
they are good lawful diversions for the duller sort of citizens,
who contract diseases for want of motion; they supply the
building of pyramids among the Egyptians, by diverting the
thoughts of the people from matters of state, and consequently
from rebellion.
They find work for printers, &c. if the parties interested are
troubled with the itch of popularity, and will suffer themselves to
be scratched out of somewhat by way of contribution to the
impression. Hence is the stationer’s shop furnished, and thence
the minister’s study in the country, who having found out the
humour of his auditory, consults with his stationer, on what
books his money is best bestowed; who very gravely, it may be,
will commend Cole upon the Philippians before the excellent, but
borrowed, Caryl upon Job. But as to any matter of conviction, we
see every one acquiesces in his own sentiments, every one hears
the teacher who is most to his humour; and when he hath been
at church, and pretends to have sat at his feet, comes home and
censures him as he pleases.
To be yet a little more particular, what shall we think of those
vast and involuble volumes concerning predestination, free-will,
free-grace, election, reprobation, &c., which fill not only our
libraries, but the world with their noise and disturbance, whereof
the least thing we are to expect is conviction; every side
endeavouring to make good their own grounds, and keep the
cudgels in their hands as long as they can? What stir is there
between the Molinists and Jansenists about grace and merits;
and yet both pretend St. Augustin!
Must we not expect, that the Jesuits will, were it for no other
end but to vindicate that reputation of learning they have
obtained in the world, endeavour to make good their tenets,
though the other were the truer opinion? Is truth then retired to
that inaccessible rock that admits no approaches? Or are we all
turned Ixions, and instead of enjoying that Juno, entertain
ourselves with the clouds of our own persuasions; of which
unnatural coition, what other issue can there be but Centaurs
and monstrous opinions? To these questions I shall not presume
to answer, but in the words of this great author, who answering
the charge of impiety laid upon the holding of necessity, says
thus; If we consider the greatest part of mankind, not as they
should be, but as they are, that is as men, whom either the
study of acquiring wealth and preferment, or whom the appetite
of sensual delights, or the impatience of meditating, or the rash
embracing of wrong principles, have made unapt to discuss the
truth of things, I must confess, &c.
Certainly we have some reason to expect an effectual cure
from this man, since he hath so fortunately found out the
disease. Now if he in so few sheets hath performed more than
all the voluminous works of the priests and ministers, and that in
points of soul-concernment and Christian interest, as
predestination, free-will, grace, merits, election, reprobation,
necessity, and liberty of actions, and others, the main hinges of
human salvation; and to do this, being a person, whom not only
the averseness of his nature to engage himself in matters of
controversy of this kind, but his severer study of the
mathematics, might justly exempt from any such skirmishes; we
may not stick to infer, that the black-coats, generally taken, are a
sort of ignorant tinkers, who in matters of their own profession,
such as is the mending and soldering of men’s consciences, have
made more holes than they found; nay, what makes them more
impardonable, they have neither the gratitude nor ingenuity to
acknowledge this repairer of their breaches, and assertor of their
reputation, who hath now effected what they all this while have
been tampering about. I know this author is little beholden to
the ministers, and they make a great part of the nation; and
besides them, I know there are many illiterate, obstinate, and
inconvincible spirits: yet I dare advance this proposition, how
bold soever it may seem to some; that this book, how little and
contemptible soever it may seem, contains more evidence and
conviction in the matters it treats of, than all the volumes, nay
libraries, which the priests, jesuits, and ministers have, to our
great charge, distraction, and loss of precious time, furnished us
with. Which if so, I shall undertake for any rational man, that all
the controversial labours concerning religion in the world, all the
polemical treatises of the most ancient or modern, shall never
breed any maggots of scruples, or dissatisfactions in his brains,
nor shall his eyes or head ever ache with turning them over; but
he shall be so resolved in mind, as never to importune God
Almighty with impertinent addresses, nor ever become any of
those enthusiastical spiritati, who, as the most learned Mr. White
says, expound Scripture without sense or reason, and are not to
be disputed with but with the same success as men write on
sand, and trouble their neighbours with their dreams,
revelations, and spiritual whimsies. No! here is solid conviction,
at least so far as the metaphysical mysteries of our religion will
admit. If God be omnipotent, he is irresistible; if so, just in all his
actions, though we, who have as much capacity to measure the
justice of God’s actions as a man born blind to judge of colours,
haply may not discern it. What then need any man trouble his
head, whether he be predestinated or no? Let him live justly and
honestly according to the religion of his country, and refer
himself to God for the rest, since he is the potter, and may do
what he please with the vessel. But I leave the reader to find his
satisfaction in the treatise itself, since it may be I derogate from
it by saying so much before it. This book, I doubt not, will find
no worse entertainment than the Leviathan, both in regard of its
bulk, and that it doth not strike so home at the ministers and
Catholic party as that did. And yet here we must complain of
want of sufficiency or ingenuity to acknowledge the truths or
confute the errors of that book; which till it is done, we shall not
count the author an heretic. On this side the sea, besides the
dirt and slander cast on him in sermons and private meetings,
none hath put anything in print against him, but Mr. Rosse; one
who may be said to have had so much learning, as to have been
perpetually barking at the works of the most learned. How he
hath been received beyond seas I know not, but certainly, not
without the regret of the Catholics; who building their church on
other foundations than those of the Scriptures, and pretending
infallibility, certitude, and unity in religion, cannot but be
discontented that these prerogatives of religion are taken away,
not only from tradition, that is to say, from the church, but also
from the Scriptures, and are invested in the supreme power of
the nation, be it of what persuasion it will.
Thus much, Reader, I have thought fit to acquaint thee with,
that thou mightest know what a jewel thou hast in thy hands,
which thou must accordingly value, not by the bulk, but the
preciousness. Thou hast here in a few sheets what might prove
work enough for many thousand sermons and exercises; and
more than the catechisms and confessions of a thousand
assemblies could furnish thee with: thou hast what will cast an
eternal blemish on all the cornered caps of priests and jesuits,
and all the black and white caps of the canting tribe; to be short,
thou art now acquainted with that man, who, in matters of so
great importance as those of thy salvation, furnishes thee with
better instructions, than any thou hast ever yet been acquainted
with, what profession, persuasion, opinion, or church soever
thou art of; of whom and his works make the best use thou
canst. Farewell.

pm hrdbl
 TO THE
LORD MARQUIS OF NEWCASTLE.

Right Honourable,
I had once resolved to answer my Lord Bishop’s objections to my
book De Cive in the first place, as that which concerns me most;
and afterwards to examine his Discourse of Liberty and Necessity,
which, because I had never uttered my opinion of it, concerned
me the less. But seeing it was your Lordship’s and my Lord
Bishop’s desire that I should begin with the latter, I was
contented so to do, and here I present and submit it to your
Lordship’s judgment.
And first I assure your Lordship I find in it no new argument
neither from Scripture nor from reason, that I have not often
heard before, which is as much as to say, I am not surprised.
The preface is a handsome one, but it appeareth even in that,
that he hath mistaken the question. For whereas he says thus, If
I be free to write this Discourse, I have obtained the cause: I
deny that to be true, for it is enough to his freedom of writing,
that he had not written it, unless he would himself. If he will
obtain the cause, he must prove that before he writ it, it was not
necessary he should prove it afterward. It may be his Lordship
thinks it all one to say, I was free to write it, and, It was not
necessary I should write it. But I think otherwise. For he is free
to do a thing, that may do it if he have the will to do it, and may
forbear, if he have the will to forbear. And yet if there be a
necessity that he shall have the will to do it, the action is
necessarily to follow: and if there be a necessity that he shall
have the will to forbear, the forbearing also will be necessary.
The question therefore is not, whether a man be a free agent,
that is to say, whether he can write or forbear, speak or be
silent, according to his will; but, whether the will to write, and
the will to forbear, come upon him according to his will, or
according to anything else in his own power. I acknowledge this
liberty, that I can do if I will; but to say, I can will if I will, I take
to be an absurd speech. Wherefore I cannot grant my Lord the
cause upon his preface.
In the next place, he maketh certain distinctions of liberty, and
says he meaneth not liberty from sin, nor from servitude, nor
from violence; but, from necessity, necessitation, inevitability,
and determination to one.
It had been better to define liberty, than thus to distinguish.
For I understand never the more what he means by liberty; and
though he say he means liberty from necessitation, yet I
understand not how such a liberty can be, and it is a taking of
the question without proof. For what is else the question
between us, but whether such a liberty be possible or not?
There are in the same place other distinctions: as a liberty of
exercise only, which he calls a liberty of contradiction, namely of
doing not good, or evil simply, but of doing this or that good, or
this or that evil respectively, and a liberty of specification and
exercise also, which he calls a liberty of contrariety, namely a
liberty not only to do good or evil, but also to do or not do this
or that good or evil.
And with these distinctions his Lordship says he clears the
coast, whereas in truth, he darkeneth his own meaning and the
question, not only with the jargon of exercise only, specification
also, contradiction, contrariety, but also with pretending
distinction where none is: for how is it possible that the liberty of
doing or not doing this or that good or evil, can consist, as he
says it does in God and good angels, without a liberty of doing
or not doing good or evil?
The next thing his Lordship does, after clearing of the coast, is
the dividing of his forces, as he calls them, into two squadrons,
one of places of Scriptures, the other of reasons, which allegory
he useth, I suppose, because he addresseth the discourse to
your Lordship, who is a military man. All that I have to say
touching this, is, that I observe a great part of those his forces
do look and march another way, and some of them fight
amongst themselves.
And the first place of Scripture, taken from Numb. xxx. 13, is
one of those that look another way; the words are, If a wife
make a vow, it is left to her husband’s choice either to establish
it or make it void. For it proves no more but that the husband is
a free and voluntary agent, but not that his choice therein is not
necessitated or not determined to what he shall choose, by
precedent necessary causes.
For if there come into the husband’s mind greater good by
establishing than abrogating such a vow, the establishing will
follow necessarily; and if the evil that will follow in the husband’s
opinion outweigh the good, the contrary must needs follow: and
yet in this following of one’s hopes and fears, consisteth the
nature of election. So that a man may both choose this, and
cannot but choose this, and consequently choosing and
necessity are joined together.
The second place of Scripture is Joshua, xxiv. 15. The third is
2 Sam. xxiv. 12, whereby it is clearly proved, that there is
election in man, but not proved that such election was not
necessitated by the hopes, and fears, and considerations of good
and bad to follow, which depend not on the will, nor are subject
to election. And therefore one answer serves all such places, if
there were a thousand.
But his Lordship supposing, it seems, I might answer, as I
have done, that necessity and election might stand together, and
instance in the actions of children, fools, or brute beasts, whose
fancies, I might say, are necessitated and determined to one;
before these his proofs out of Scripture, desires to prevent that
instance, and therefore says that the actions of children, fools,
madmen, and beasts, are indeed determined, but that they
proceed not from election, nor from free, but from spontaneous
agents. As for example, that the bee, when it maketh honey,
does it spontaneously; and when the spider makes his web, he
does it spontaneously, but not by election.
Though I never meant to ground my answer upon the
experience of what children, fools, madmen, and beasts do; yet
that your Lordship may understand what can be meant by
spontaneous, and how it differeth from voluntary, I will answer
that distinction, and show that it fighteth against its fellow
arguments.
Your Lordship therefore is to consider, that all voluntary
actions, where the thing that induceth the will is not fear, are
called also spontaneous, and said to be done by a man’s own
accord. As when a man giveth money voluntarily to another for
merchandise, or out of affection, he is said to do it of his own
accord, which in Latin is sponte, and therefore the action is
spontaneous; though to give one’s money willingly to a thief to
avoid killing, or throw it into the sea to avoid drowning, where
the motive is fear, be not called spontaneous. But every
spontaneous action is not therefore voluntary, for voluntary
presupposes some precedent deliberation, that is to say, some
consideration, and meditation, of what is likely to follow, both
upon the doing, and abstaining from the action deliberated of;
whereas many actions are done of our own accord, and are
therefore spontaneous, for which nevertheless, as my Lord
thinks, we never consulted nor deliberated in ourselves. As when
making no question nor any the least doubt in the world, but the
thing we are about is good, we eat and walk, or in anger strike
or revile, which my Lord thinks spontaneous, but not voluntary
nor elective actions, and with such kind of actions, he says
necessitation may stand, but not with such as are voluntary, and
proceed upon election and deliberation. Now if I make it appear
to your Lordship, that those actions, which, he says, proceed
from spontaneity, and which he ascribes to children, fools,
madmen, and beasts, proceed from election and deliberation,
and that actions inconsiderate, rash, and spontaneous, are
ordinarily found in those, that are by themselves and many more
thought as wise, or wiser than ordinarily men are, then my Lord
Bishop’s argument concludeth, that necessity and election may
stand together, which is contrary to that which he intendeth by
all the rest of his arguments to prove.
And first your Lordship’s own experience furnishes you with
proof enough, that horses, dogs, and other brute beasts, do
demur oftentimes upon the way they are to take, the horse
retiring from some strange figure that he sees, and coming on
again to avoid the spur. And what else doth a man that
deliberateth, but one while proceed toward action, another while
retire from it, as the hope of greater good draws him, or the fear
of greater evil drives him away.
A child may be so young as to do what it does without all
deliberation, but that is but till it have the chance to be hurt by
doing of somewhat, or till it be of age to understand the rod: for
the actions, wherein he hath once had a check, shall be
deliberated on the second time.
Fools and madmen manifestly deliberate no less than the
wisest men, though they make not so good a choice, the images
of things being by disease altered.
For bees and spiders, if my Lord Bishop had had so little to do
as to be a spectator of their actions, he would have confessed
not only election, but art, prudence, and policy, in them, very
near equal to that of mankind. Of bees, Aristotle says, their life is
civil.
Again, his Lordship is deceived, if he think any spontaneous
action, after once being checked in it, differs from an action
voluntary and elective: for even the setting of a man’s foot, in
the posture for walking, and the action of ordinary eating, was
once deliberated of how and when it should be done, and
though afterward it became easy and habitual, so as to be done
without forethought; yet that does not hinder but that the act is
voluntary, and proceedeth from election. So also are the rashest
actions of choleric persons voluntary and upon deliberation: for
who is there but very young children, that hath not considered
when and how far he ought, or safely may strike or revile?
Seeing then his Lordship agrees with me, that such actions are
necessitated, and the fancy of those that do them determined to
the action they do, it follows out of his Lordship’s own doctrine,
that the liberty of election does not take away the necessity of
electing this or that individual thing. And thus one of his
arguments fights against another.
The second argument from Scripture, consisteth in histories of
men that did one thing, when if they would, they might have
done another; the places are two: one is 1 Kings iii. 10, where
the history says, God was pleased that Solomon, who might, if
he would, have asked riches, or revenge, did nevertheless ask
wisdom at God’s hands: the other is the words of St. Peter to
Ananias, Acts v. 4: After it was sold, was it not in thine own
power?
To which the answer is the same with that I answered to the
former places, that they prove there is election, but do not
disprove the necessity, which I maintain, of what they so elect.
The fourth argument (for to the third and fifth I shall make but
one answer) is to this effect; If the decrees of God, or his
foreknowledge, or the influence of the stars, or the
concatenation of causes, or the physical or moral efficacy of
causes, or the last dictate of the understanding, or whatsoever it
be, do take away true liberty, then Adam before his fall had no
true liberty. Quicquid ostendes mihi sic incredulus odi.
That which I say necessitateth and determinateth every
action, that his Lordship may no longer doubt of my meaning, is
the sum of all things, which being now existent, conduce and
concur to the production of that action hereafter, whereof if any
one thing now were wanting, the effect could not be produced.
This concourse of causes, whereof every one is determined to be
such as it is by a like concourse of former causes, may well be
called (in respect they were all set and ordered by the eternal
cause of all things, God Almighty) the decree of God.
But that the foreknowledge of God should be a cause of any
thing, cannot be truly said, seeing foreknowledge is knowledge,
and knowledge depends on the existence of the things known,
and not they on it.
The influence of the stars is but a small part of the whole
cause, consisting of the concourse of all agents.
Nor does the concourse of all causes make one simple chain or
concatenation, but an innumerable number of chains, joined
together, not in all parts, but in the first link God Almighty; and
consequently the whole cause of an event, doth not always
depend on one single chain, but on many together.
Natural efficacy of objects does determine voluntary agents,
and necessitates the will, and consequently the action; but for
moral efficacy, I understand not what he means.
The last dictate of the judgment, concerning the good or bad,
that may follow on any action, is not properly the whole cause,
but the last part of it, and yet may be said to produce the effect
necessarily, in such manner as the last feather may be said to
break a horse’s back, when there were so many laid on before as
there wanted but that one to do it.
Now for his argument, that if the concourse of all the causes
necessitate the effect, that then it follows, Adam had no true
liberty: I deny the consequence; for I make not only the effect,
but also the election, of that particular effect necessary,
inasmuch as the will itself, and each propension of a man during
his deliberation, is as much necessitated, and depends on a
sufficient cause, as any thing else whatsoever. As for example, it
is no more necessary that fire should burn, than that a man or
other creature, whose limbs be moved by fancy, should have
election, that is liberty, to do what he hath a fancy to do, though
it be not in his will or power to choose his fancy, or choose his
election and will.
This doctrine, because my Lord Bishop says he hates, I doubt
had better been suppressed, as it should have been, if both your
Lordship and he had not pressed me to an answer.
The arguments of greatest consequence, are the third and the
fifth, and they fall both into one, namely: If there be a necessity
of all events, that it will follow, that praise and reprehension, and
reward and punishment, are all vain and unjust; and that if God
should openly forbid, and secretly necessitate the same action,
punishing men for what they could not avoid, there would be no
belief among them of heaven and hell.
To oppose hereunto I must borrow an answer from St. Paul,
Rom. ix. 20, 21. From the eleventh verse of the chapter to the
eighteenth, is laid down the very same objection in these words:
When they, meaning Esau and Jacob, were yet unborn, and had
done neither good nor evil, that the purpose of God according to
election, not by works, but by him that calleth, might remain
firm, it was said unto her (viz. Rebecca) that the elder should
serve the younger, &c. What then shall we say? Is there injustice
with God? God forbid. It is not therefore in him that willeth, nor
in him that runneth, but in God that showeth mercy. For the
Scripture saith to Pharaoh, I have stirred thee up that I might
show my power in thee, and that my name might be set forth in
all the earth. Therefore whom God willeth, he hath mercy on,
and whom he willeth he hardeneth. Thus you see the case put
by St. Paul, is the same with that of my Lord Bishop, and the
same objection in these words following:
Thou wilt ask me then, why does God yet complain, for who
hath resisted his will?
To this therefore the Apostle answers, not by denying it was
God’s will, or that the decree of God concerning Esau was not
before he had sinned, or that Esau was not necessitated to do
what he did; but thus: Who art thou, O man, that interrogatest
God? Shall the work say to the workman, why hast thou made
me thus? Hath not the potter power over the clay, of the same
stuff to make one vessel to honour, another to dishonour?
According therefore to this answer of St. Paul, I answer my
Lord’s objection, and say, the power of God alone without other
helps is sufficient justification of any action he doth. That which
men make amongst themselves here by pacts and covenants,
and call by the name of justice, and according whereunto men
are accounted and termed rightly just or unjust, is not that by
which God Almighty’s actions are to be measured or called just,
no more than his counsels are to be measured by human
wisdom. That which he does, is made just by his doing it; just, I
say, in him, though not always just in us.
For a man that shall command a thing openly, and plot
secretly the hindrance of the same, if he punish him that he so
commandeth, for not doing it, it is unjust. So also, his counsels
are therefore not in vain, because they be his, whether we see
the use of them or not. When God afflicted Job, he did object no
sin unto him, but justified his afflicting of him, by telling him of
his power: (Job xl. 9:) Hast thou, saith God, an arm like mine?
(Job xxviii. 4): Where wert thou when I laid the foundations of
the earth? and the like. So our Saviour, (John ix. 3) concerning
the man that was born blind, said, it was not for his sin, or for
his parents' sin, but that the power of God might be shown in
him. Beasts are subject to death and torments, yet they cannot
sin: it was God’s will they should be so. Power irresistible justifies
all actions, really and properly, in whomsoever it be found; less
power does not, and because such power is in God only, he must
needs be just in all actions, and we, that not comprehending his
counsels, call him to the bar, commit injustice in it.
I am not ignorant of the usual reply to his answer, by
distinguishing between will and permission, as that God Almighty
does indeed sometimes permit sins, and that he also
foreknoweth that the sin he permitteth, shall be committed, but
does not will it, nor necessitate it.
I know also they distinguish the action from the sin of the
action, saying, that God Almighty does indeed cause the action,
whatsoever action it be, but not the sinfulness or irregularity of
it, that is, the discordance between the action and the law. Such
distinctions as these dazzle my understanding; I find no
difference between the will to have a thing done, and the
permission to do it, when he that permitteth can hinder it, and
knows that it will be done unless he hinder it. Nor find I any
difference between an action and the sin of that action; as for
example, between the killing of Uriah, and the sin of David in
killing Uriah, nor when one is cause both of the action and of the
law, how another can be cause of the disagreement between
them, no more than how one man making a longer and a shorter
garment, another can make the inequality that is between them.
This I know; God cannot sin, because his doing a thing makes it
just, and consequently, no sin; as also because whatsoever can
sin, is subject to another’s law, which God is not. And therefore it
is blasphemy to say, God can sin; but to say, that God can so
order the world, as a sin may be necessarily caused thereby in a
man, I do not see how it is any dishonour to him. Howsoever, if
such or other distinctions can make it clear, that St. Paul did not
think Esau’s or Pharaoh’s actions proceeded from the will and
purpose of God, or that proceeding from his will, could not
therefore without injustice be blamed or punished, I will, as soon
as I understand them, turn unto my Lord’s opinion: for I now
hold nothing in all this question betwixt us, but what seemeth to
me, not obscurely, but most expressly said in this place by St.
Paul. And thus much in answer to his places of Scripture.

TO THE ARGUMENTS FROM REASON.

Of the arguments from reason, the first is that which his

Lordship saith is drawn from Zeno’s beating of his man, which is
therefore called argumentum baculinum, that is to say, a wooden
argument. The story is this; Zeno held, that all actions were
necessary; his man therefore being for some fault beaten,
excused himself upon the necessity of it: to avoid this excuse,
his master pleaded likewise the necessity of beating him. So that
not he that maintained, but he that derided the necessity, was
beaten, contrary to that his Lordship would infer. And the
argument was rather withdrawn than drawn from the story.
The second argument is taken from certain inconveniences
which his Lordship thinks would follow such an opinion. It is true
that ill use might be made of it, and therefore your Lordship and
my Lord Bishop ought, at my request, to keep private what I say
here of it. But the inconveniences are indeed none, and what
use soever be made of truth, yet truth is truth, and now the
question is not, what is fit to be preached, but, what is true.
The first inconvenience he says, is this; That the laws, which
prohibit any action, will be unjust.
2. That all consultations are vain.
3. That admonitions to men of understanding, are of no more
use, than to children, fools, and madmen.
4. That, praise, dispraise, reward and punishment, are in vain.
5, 6. That counsels, acts, arms, books, instruments, study,
tutors, medicines, are in vain.
To which arguments his Lordship expecting I should answer,
by saying, the ignorance of the event were enough to make us
use the means, adds, as it were a reply to my answer foreseen,
these words: Alas! how should our not knowing the event be a
sufficient motive to make us use the means? Wherein his
Lordship says right, but my answer is not that which he
expecteth: I answer,
First, that the necessity of an action doth not make the laws,
that prohibit it, unjust. To let pass, that not the necessity, but
the will to break the law, maketh the action unjust, because the
law regardeth the will, and no other precedent causes of action.
And to let pass, that no law can possibly be unjust, inasmuch as
every man maketh, by his consent, the law he is bound to keep,
and which consequently must be just, unless a man can be
unjust to himself. I say, what necessary cause soever precede an
action, yet if the action be forbidden, he that doth it willingly
may justly be punished. For instance, suppose the law on pain of
death prohibit stealing, and that there be a man, who by the
strength of temptation is necessitated to steal, and is thereupon
put to death, does not this punishment deter others from theft?
Is it not a cause that others steal not? Doth it not frame and
make their wills to justice?
To make the law, is therefore to make a cause of justice, and
to necessitate justice; and consequently, it is no injustice to
make such a law.
The intention of the law is not to grieve the delinquent, for
that which is past, and not to be undone; but to make him and
others just, that else would not be so, and respecteth not the
evil act past, but the good to come; insomuch as without the
good intention for the future, no past act of a delinquent could
justify his killing in the sight of God. But you will say, how is it
just to kill one man to amend another, if what were done were
necessary? To this I answer, that men are justly killed, not for
that their actions are not necessitated, but because they are
noxious, and they are spared and preserved whose actions are
not noxious. For where there is no law, there no killing nor
anything else can be unjust; and by the right of nature, we
destroy, without being unjust, all that is noxious, both beasts
and men; and for beasts we kill them justly, when we do it in
order to our own preservation, and yet my Lord himself
confesseth, that their actions, as being only spontaneous, and
not free, are all necessitated and determined to that one thing
they shall do. For men, when we make societies or
commonwealths, we lay not down our right to kill, excepting in
certain cases, as murder, theft or other offensive action; so that
the right, which the commonwealth hath to put a man to death
for crimes, is not created by the law, but remains from the first
right of nature, which every man hath to preserve himself; for
that the law doth not take the right away in the case of
criminals, who were by the law excepted. Men are not therefore
put to death, or punished, for that their theft proceedeth from
election; but because it was noxious and contrary to men’s
preservation, and the punishment conducing to the preservation
of the rest, inasmuch as to punish those that do voluntary hurt,
and none else, frameth and maketh men’s wills such as men
would have them. And thus it is plain, that from the necessity of
a voluntary action, cannot be inferred the injustice of the law
that forbiddeth it, or the magistrate that punisheth it.
Secondly, I deny that it maketh consultations to be in vain; it
is the consultation that causeth a man, and necessitateth him to
choose to do one thing rather than another: so that unless a
man say that that cause is in vain which necessitateth the effect,
he cannot infer the superfluousness of consultation out of the
necessity of the election proceeding from it. But it seemeth his
Lordship reasons thus: If I must do this rather than that, I shall
do this rather than that, though I consult not at all; which is a
false proposition and a false consequence, and no better than
this: If I shall live till to-morrow, I shall live till to-morrow,
though I run myself through with a sword to-day. If there be a
necessity that an action shall be done, or that any effect shall be
brought to pass, it does not therefore follow, that there is
nothing necessarily requisite as a means to bring it to pass; and
therefore when it is determined, that one thing shall be chosen
before another, it is determined also for what cause it shall so be
chosen, which cause, for the most part, is deliberation or
consultation, and therefore consultation is not in vain, and
indeed the less in vain by how much the election is more
necessitated, if more and less had any place in necessity.
The same answer is to be given to the third supposed
inconvenience, namely, that admonitions are in vain; for the
admonitions are parts of consultation, the admonitor being a
counsellor for the time to him that is admonished.
The fourth pretended inconvenience is, that praise, dispraise,
reward, and punishment will be in vain. To which I answer, that
for praise and dispraise, they depend not at all on the necessity
of the action praised or dispraised. For what is it else to praise,
but to say a thing is good? Good, I say, for me, or for somebody
else, or for the state and commonwealth? And what is it to say
an action is good, but to say it is as I would wish? or as another
would have it, or according to the will of the state? that is to say,
according to the law. Does my Lord think that no action can
please me, or him, or the commonwealth, that should proceed
from necessity? Things may be therefore necessary, and yet
praise-worthy, as also necessary, and yet dispraised, and neither
of them both in vain, because praise and dispraise, and likewise
reward and punishment, do by example make and conform the
will to good and evil. It was a very great praise in my opinion,
that Velleius Paterculus (Lib. ii. 35) gives Cato, where he says
that he was good by nature, et quia aliter esse non potuit.
To the fifth and sixth inconveniences, that counsels, arts,
arms, instruments, books, study, medicines, and the like, would
be superfluous, the same answer serves as to the former, that is
to say, that this consequence, if the effect shall necessarily come
to pass, then it shall come to pass without its causes, is a false
one, and those things named counsels, arts, arms, &c. are the
causes of these effects.
His Lordship’s third argument consisteth in other
inconveniences, which he saith will follow, namely, impiety and
negligence of religious duties, as repentance, and zeal to God’s
service, &c.
To which I answer as to the rest, that they follow not. I must
confess, if we consider the greatest part of mankind, not as they
should be, but as they are, that is, as men, whom either the
study of acquiring wealth, or preferment, or whom the appetite
of sensual delights, or the impatience of meditating, or the rash
embracing of wrong principles, have made unapt to discuss the
truth of things: I must, I say, confess that the dispute of this
question will rather hurt than help their piety; and therefore if
his Lordship had not desired this answer, I should not have
written it, nor do I write it but in hopes your Lordship and his
will keep it private. Nevertheless in very truth, the necessity of
events does not of itself draw with it any impiety at all. For piety
consisteth only in two things; one, that we honour God in our
hearts, which is, that we think as highly of his power as we can,
for to honour anything is nothing else but to think it to be of
great power; the other is, that we signify that honour and
esteem by our words and actions, which is called cultus, or
worship of God. He therefore that thinketh that all things
proceed from God’s eternal will, and consequently are necessary,
does he not think God omnipotent? Does he not esteem of his
power as highly as is possible? which is to honour God as much
as may be in his heart. Again, he that thinketh so, is he not more
apt by external acts and words to acknowledge it, than he that
thinketh otherwise? yet is this external acknowledgment the
same thing which we call worship. So that this opinion fortifies
piety in both kinds, external and internal; therefore is far from
destroying it. And for repentance, which is nothing else but a
glad returning into the right way, after the grief of being out of
the way; though the cause that made him go astray were
necessary, yet there is no reason why he should not grieve; and,
again though the cause why he returned into the way were
necessary, there remained still the causes of joy. So that the
necessity of the actions taketh away neither of those parts of
repentance, grief for the error, and joy for returning.
And for prayer, whereas he saith that the necessity of things
destroy prayer, I deny it; for though prayer be none of the
causes that move God’s will, his will being unchangeable, yet
since we find in God’s word, he will not give his blessings but to
those that ask, the motive of prayer is the same. Prayer is the
gift of God no less than the blessing, and the prayer is decreed
together in the same decree wherein the blessing is decreed. It
is manifest that thanksgiving is no cause of the blessing past,
and that which is past is sure and necessary, yet even amongst
men thanks is in use as an acknowledgment of the benefit past,
though we should expect no new benefit for our gratitude. And
prayer to God Almighty is but thanksgiving for God’s blessings in
general, and though it precede the particular thing we ask, yet it
is not a cause or means of it, but a signification that we expect
nothing but from God, in such manner, as he, not as we, will;
and our Saviour by word of mouth bids us pray, thy will, not our
will, be done, and by example teaches us the same; for he
prayed thus, Father if it be thy will, let this cup pass, &c. The
end of prayer, as of thanksgiving, is not to move but to honour
God Almighty, in acknowledging that what we ask can be
effected by him only.
The fourth argument from reason is this: the order, beauty,
and perfection of the world requireth that in the universe should
be agents of all sorts; some necessary, some free, some
contingent. He that shall make all things necessary, or all things
free, or all things contingent, doth overthrow the beauty and
perfection of the world.
In which argument I observe, first a contradiction; for seeing
he that maketh anything, in that he maketh it, maketh it to be
necessary; it followeth that he that maketh all things, maketh all
things necessarily to be: as if a workman make a garment, the
garment must necessarily be; so if God make every thing, every
thing must necessarily be. Perhaps the beauty of the world
requireth, though we know it not, that some agents should work
without deliberation (which his lordship calls necessary agents)
and some agents with deliberation (and those both he and I call
free agents) and that some agents should work, and we not
know how (and their effects we both call contingents); but this
hinders not but that he that electeth may have his election
necessarily determined to one by former causes, and that which
is contingent, and imputed to fortune, be nevertheless necessary
and depend on precedent necessary causes. For by contingent,
men do not mean that which hath no cause, but that which hath
not for cause anything that we perceive; as for example, when a
traveller meets with a shower, the journey had a cause, and the
rain had a cause sufficient to produce it; but because the
journey caused not the rain, nor the rain the journey, we say
they were contingent one to another. And thus you see that
though there be three sorts of events, necessary, contingent,
and free, yet they may be all necessary without destruction of
the beauty or perfection of the universe.
To the first argument from reason, which is, That if liberty be
taken away, the nature and formal reason of sin is taken away; I
answer by denying the consequence: the nature of sin consisteth
in this, that the action done proceed from our will and be against
the law. A judge in judging whether it be sin or no, which is
done against the law, looks at no higher cause of the action,
than the will of the doer. Now when I say the action was
necessary, I do not say it was done against the will of the doer,
but with his will, and necessarily, because man’s will, that is
every volition or act of the will and purpose of man had a
sufficient, and therefore a necessary cause, and consequently
every voluntary action was necessitated. An action therefore may
be voluntary and a sin, and nevertheless be necessary; and
because God may afflict by a right derived from his
omnipotence, though sin were not, and because the example of
punishment on voluntary sinners, is the cause that produceth
justice, and maketh sin less frequent, for God to punish such
sinners, as I have said before, is no injustice. And thus you have
my answer to his Lordship’s objections both out of Scripture, and
from reason.

CERTAIN DISTINCTIONS, WHICH HIS LORDSHIP SUPPOSING

MIGHT BE BROUGHT TO EVADE HIS
ARGUMENTS, ARE BY HIM REMOVED.

He says a man may perhaps answer, that the necessity of

things held by him, is not a stoical necessity, but a Christian
necessity, &c. But this distinction I have not used, nor indeed
ever heard before, nor could I think any man could make stoical
and Christian two kinds of necessity, though they may be two
kinds of doctrine. Nor have I drawn my answer to his Lordship’s
arguments from the authority of any sect, but from the nature of
the things themselves.
But here I must take notice of certain words of his Lordship’s
in this place, as making against his own tenet. Where all the
causes, saith he, being joined together, and subordinate one to
another, do make but one total cause, if any one cause, much
more the first, in the whole series or subordination of causes, be
necessary, it determines the rest, and without doubt maketh the
effect necessary. For that which I call the necessary cause of any
effect, is the joining together of all causes subordinate to the
first, into one total cause. If any of these, saith he, especially the
first, produce its effect necessarily, then all the rest are
determined. Now it is manifest, that the first cause is a
necessary cause of all the effects that are next and immediate to
it, and therefore by his Lordship’s own reason all effects are
necessary.
Nor is that distinction of necessary in respect of the first
cause, and necessary in respect of second causes, mine; it does,
as his Lordship well notes, imply a contradiction. But the
distinction of free into free from compulsion, and free from
necessitation, I acknowledge. For to be free from compulsion is
to do a thing so as terror be not the cause of his will to do it; for
a man is then only said to be compelled, when fear makes him
willing to it: as when a man willingly throws his goods into the
sea to save himself, or submits to his enemy for fear of being
killed. Thus all men that do anything for love, or revenge, or lust,
are free from compulsion, and yet their actions may be as
necessary as those that are done by compulsion; for sometimes
other passions work as forcibly as fear. But free from
necessitation, I say, no man can be, and it is that which his
Lordship undertook to disprove.
This distinction, his Lordship says, uses to be fortified by two
reasons, but they are not mine. The first he says, is, that it is
granted by all divines, that an hypothetical necessity, or
necessity upon supposition, may stand with liberty. That you
may understand this, I will give you an example of hypothetical
necessity. If I shall live, I shall eat. This is an hypothetical
necessity. Indeed it is a necessary proposition, that is to say, it is
necessary that that proposition should be true whensoever
uttered, but it is not the necessity of the thing, nor is it therefore
necessary that the man should live, nor that the man should eat.
I do not use to fortify my distinctions with such reasons; let his
Lordship confute them how he will, it contents me; but I would
have your Lordship take notice hereby, how easy and plain a
thing, but withal false, with the grave usage of such terms as
hypothetical necessity, and necessity upon supposition, and such
like terms of Schoolmen, may be obscured and made to seem
profound learning.
The second reason that may confirm the distinction of free
from compulsion, and free from necessitation, he says is, that
God and good angels do good necessarily, and yet are more free
than we. This reason, though I had no need of, yet I think it so
far forth good, as it is true that God and good angels do good
necessarily, and yet are free; but because I find not in the
articles of our faith, nor in the decrees of our church, set down
in what manner I am to conceive God and good angels to work
by necessity, or in what sense they work freely, I suspend my
sentence in that point, and am content that there be a freedom
from compulsion, and yet no freedom from necessitation, as
hath been proved, in that a man may be necessitated to some
action without threats and without fear of danger. But how my
Lord can avoid the consisting together of freedom and necessity,
supposing God and good angels are freer than men, and yet do
good necessarily, that we must examine: I confess, saith he, that
God and good angels are more free than we, that is, intensively
in degree of freedom, not extensively in the latitude of the
object, according to a liberty of exercise not of specification.
Again, we have here two distinctions that are no distinctions,
but made to seem so by terms invented by I know not whom to
cover ignorance, and blind the understanding of the reader: for
it cannot be conceived that there is any liberty greater, than for a
man to do what he will. One heat may be more intensive than
another, but not one liberty than another; he that can do what
he will, hath all liberty possible, and he that cannot, hath none
at all. Also liberty, as his Lordship says the Schools call it, of
exercise, which is as I have said before, a liberty to do or not to
do, cannot be without a liberty, which they call, of specification,
that is to say, a liberty to do, or not to do this or that in
particular. For how can a man conceive he hath liberty to do
anything, that hath not liberty to do this, or that, or somewhat in
particular? If a man be forbidden in Lent to eat this, and that,
and every other particular kind of flesh, how can he be
understood to have a liberty to eat flesh, more than he that hath
no licence at all? You may by this again see the vanity of
distinctions used in the Schools, and I do not doubt but that the
imposing of them, by authority of doctors in the Church, hath
been a great cause that men have laboured, though by sedition
and evil courses, to shake them off; for nothing is more apt to
beget hatred, than the tyrannizing over men’s reason and
understanding, especially when it is done, not by the Scriptures,
but by the pretence of learning, and more judgment than that of
other men.
In the next place his Lordship bringeth two arguments against
distinguishing between free from compulsion and free from
necessitation.
The first is, that election is opposite not only to coaction or
compulsion, but also necessitation or determination to one. This
is it he was to prove from the beginning, and therefore bringeth
no new argument to prove it; and to those brought formerly, I
have already answered. And in this place I deny again, that
election is opposite to either; for when a man is compelled, for
example, to subject himself to an enemy or to die, he hath still
election left him, and a deliberation to bethink which of the two
he can better endure. And he that is led to prison by force, hath
election, and may deliberate whether he will be hauled and
trained on the ground, or make use of his own feet: likewise
when there is no compulsion, but the strength of temptation to
do an evil action, being greater than the motives to abstain, it
necessarily determines him to the doing of it; yet he deliberates
while sometimes the motives to do, sometimes the motives to
forbear, are working on him, and consequently he electeth which
he will. But commonly when we see and know the strength that
moves us, we acknowledge necessity; but when we see not, or
mark not the force that moves us, we then think there is none,
and that it is not causes but liberty that produceth the action.
Hence it is that they think he does not choose this, that of
necessity chooses it; but they might as well say, fire doth not
burn, because it burns of necessity.
 The second argument is not so much an argument as a
distinction, to show in what sense it may be said that voluntary
actions are necessitated, and in what sense not. And therefore
his Lordship allegeth, as from the authority of the Schools, and
that which rippeth up the bottom of the question, that there is a
double act of the will. The one, he says, is actus imperatus, an
act done at the command of the will, by some inferior faculty of
the soul; as to open or shut one’s eyes; and this act may be
compelled: the other, he says, is actus elicitus, an act allured or
drawn forth by allurement out of the will, as to will, to choose, to
elect; this he says cannot be compelled. Wherein, letting pass
that metaphorical speech of attributing command and subjection
to the faculties of the soul, as if they made a commonwealth or
family within themselves, and could speak one to another, which
is very improper in searching the truth of a question, you may
observe, first, that to compel a voluntary act, is nothing else but
to will it; for it is all one to say, my will commands the shutting
of my eyes, or the doing of any other action; and to say, I have
the will to shut my eyes: so that actus imperatus, here, might as
easily have been said in English a voluntary action, but that they
that invented the term, understood not anything it signified.
Secondly, you may observe, that actus elicitus, is exemplified
by these words, to will, to elect, to choose, which are all one,
and so to will is here made an act of the will; and indeed as the
will is a faculty or power in a man’s soul, so to will is an act of it
according to that power; but as it is absurdly said, that to dance
is an act allured or drawn by fair means out of the ability to
dance; so is it also to say, that to will is an act allured or drawn
out of the power to will, which power is commonly called the
will. Howsoever it be, the sum of his Lordship’s distinction is,
that a voluntary act may be done by compulsion, that is to say,
by foul means, but to will that, or any act, cannot be but by
allurement, or fair means. Now seeing fair means, allurements,
and enticements, produce the action which they do produce, as
necessarily as foul means and threatening; it follows, that to will
may be made as necessary as anything that is done by
compulsion. So that distinction of actus imperatus and actus
elicitus are but words, and of no effect against necessity.
His Lordship in the rest of his discourse, reckoneth up the
opinion of certain professions of men, touching the causes
wherein the necessity of things, which they maintain, consisteth.
And first he saith, the astrologer deriveth his necessity from the
stars; secondly, that the physician attributeth it to the temper of
the body. For my part, I am not of their opinion, because,
neither the stars alone, nor the temperature of the patient alone,
is able to produce any effect, without the concurrence of all
other agents. For there is hardly any one action, how casual
soever it seem, to the causing whereof concur not whatsoever is
in rerum naturâ, which because it is a great paradox, and
depends on many antecedent speculations, I do not press in this
place. Thirdly, he disputeth against the opinion of them that say,
external objects presented to men of such and such
temperatures, do make their actions necessary; and says, the
power such objections have over us, proceeds from our own
fault: but that is nothing to the purpose, if such fault of ours
proceedeth from causes not in our own power, and therefore
that opinion may hold true for all that answer.
Further he says, prayer, fasting, &c. may alter our habits; it is
true, but when they do so, they are causes of the contrary habit,
and make it necessary, as the former habit had been necessary,
if prayer, fasting, &c. had not been. Besides, we are not moved
or disposed to prayer or any other action, but by outward
objects, as pious company, godly preachers, or something
equivalent. Fourthly, he says a resolved mind is not easily
surprised, as the mind of Ulysses, who when others wept, alone
wept not; and of the philosopher, that abstained from striking,
because he found himself angry; and of him that poured out the
water when he was thirsty, and the like. Such things I confess
have, or may have been done, and do prove only that it was not
necessary for Ulysses then to weep, nor for that philosopher to
strike, nor for that other man to drink; but it does not prove that
it was not necessary for Ulysses then to abstain, as he did, from
weeping, nor for the philosopher to abstain, as he did, from
striking, nor for the other man to forbear drinking, and yet that
was the thing his Lordship ought to have proved. Lastly his
Lordship confesses, that the dispositions of objects may be
dangerous to liberty, but cannot be destructive. To which I
answer, it is impossible: for liberty is never in any other danger
than to be lost; and if it cannot be lost, which he confesses, I
may infer, it can be in no danger at all.
The fourth opinion his Lordship rejecteth, is of them that make
the will necessarily to follow the last dictate of the
understanding; but it seems his Lordship understands that tenet
in another sense than I do; for he speaketh as if they that held
it, did suppose men must dispute the sequel of every action they
do, great and small, to the least grain; which is a thing his
Lordship, with reason, thinks untrue. But I understand it to
signify, that the will follows the last opinion or judgment
immediately preceding the action, concerning whether it be good
to do it or not, whether he have weighed it long before, or not at
all, and that I take to be the meaning of them that hold it. As for
example, when a man strikes, his will to strike follows
necessarily that thought he had of the sequel of his stroke,
immediately before the lifting up of his hand. Now if it be
understood in that sense, the last dictate of the understanding
does necessitate the action, though not as the whole cause, yet
as the last cause, as the last feather necessitates the breaking of
a horse’s back, when there are so many laid on before, as there
needed but the addition of one to make the weight sufficient.
That which his Lordship allegeth against this, is first, out of a
poet, who in the person of Medea says,

“Video meliora, proboque,

Deteriora sequor.”

But that saying, as pretty as it is, is not true; for though Medea
saw many reasons to forbear killing her children, yet the last
dictate of her judgment was, that the present revenge on her
husband outweighed them all, and thereupon the wicked action
necessarily followed. Then the story of the Roman, who of two
competitors, said, one had the better reason, but the other must
have the office. This also maketh against his Lordship, for the
last dictate of his judgment that had the bestowing of the office,
was this, that it was better to take a great bribe, than reward a
great merit.
Thirdly, he objects that things nearer the sense, move more
powerfully than reason; what followeth thence but this, the
sense of the present good is commonly more immediate to the
action, than the foresight of the evil consequence to come?
Fourthly, whereas his Lordship says, that do what a man can, he
shall sorrow more for the death of his son than for the sin of his
soul, makes nothing to the last dictate of the understanding; but
it argues plainly, that sorrow for sin is not voluntary, and by
consequence, that repentance proceedeth from causes.
The last part of this discourse containeth his Lordship’s
opinions about reconciling liberty with the prescience and
decrees of God, otherwise than some divines have done, against
whom, he says, he had formerly written a treatise, out of which
he repeateth only two things: one is, That we ought not to
desert a certain truth, for not being able to comprehend the
certain manner of it. And I say the same, as for example, that
his Lordship ought not to desert this certain truth, that there are
certain and necessary causes which make every man to will what
he willeth, though he do not yet conceive in what manner the
will of man is caused. And yet I think the manner of it is not very
hard to conceive, seeing we see daily, that praise, dispraise,
reward, and punishment, good and evil, sequels of men’s actions
retained in memory, do frame and make us to the election of
whatsoever it be that we elect, and that the memory of such
things proceeds from the senses, and sense from the operation
of the objects of sense, which are external to us, and governed
only by God Almighty; and by consequence all actions, even of
free and voluntary agents, are necessary.
 The other thing that he repeateth, is, that the best way to
reconcile contingence and liberty with prescience and the
decrees of God, is to subject future contingencies to the aspect
of God. The same is also my opinion, but contrary to what his
Lordship all this while laboured to prove. For hitherto he held
liberty and necessity, that is to say, liberty and the decrees of
God, irreconcileable, unless the aspect of God, which word
appeareth now the first time in this discourse, signify somewhat
else besides God’s will and decree, which I cannot understand.
But he adds that we must subject them, according to that
presentiality which they have in eternity, which he says cannot
be done by them that conceive eternity to be an everlasting
succession, but only by them that conceive it as an indivisible
point. To which I answer, that as soon as I can conceive eternity
to be an indivisible point, or anything but an everlasting
succession, I will renounce all that I have written on this subject.
I know St. Thomas Aquinas calls eternity, nunc stans, an ever-
abiding now; which is easy enough to say, but though I fain
would, yet I could never conceive it: they that can, are more
happy than I. But in the mean time his Lordship alloweth all men
to be of my opinion, save only those that can conceive in their
minds a nunc stans, which I think are none. I understand as little
how it can be true his Lordship says, that God is not just, but
justice itself; not wise, but wisdom itself; not eternal, but
eternity itself; nor how he concludes thence, that eternity is a
point indivisible, and not a succession, nor in what sense it can
be said, that an infinite point, and wherein is no succession, can
comprehend all time, though time be successive. These phrases
I find not in the Scripture; I wonder therefore what was the
design of the Schoolmen to bring them up, unless they thought a
man could not be a true Christian unless his understanding be
first strangled with such hard sayings. And thus much for answer
to his Lordship’s discourse, wherein I think not only his
squadrons of arguments, but also his reserve of distinctions, are
defeated. And now your Lordship shall have my doctrine
concerning the same question, with my reasons for it, positively,
and as briefly as I can, without any terms of art, in plain English.
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