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Topics In Probability 1st Edition Narahari Prabhu Digital
Instant Download
Author(s): Narahari Prabhu
ISBN(s): 9789814335478, 9814335479
Edition: 1
File Details: PDF, 3.13 MB
Year: 2011
Language: english
8039.9789814335478-tp.indd 1 5/25/11 3:50 PM
This page intentionally left blank
TOPICS IN
PROBABILITY
Narahari Prabhu
Cornell University, USA
World Scientific
NEW JERSEY • LONDON • SINGAPORE • BEIJING • SHANGHAI • HONG KONG • TA I P E I • CHENNAI
TOPICS IN PROBABILITY
Copyright © 2011 by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
All rights reserved. This book, or parts thereof, may not be reproduced in any form or by any means,
electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage and retrieval
system now known or to be invented, without written permission from the Publisher.
For photocopying of material in this volume, please pay a copying fee through the Copyright
Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA. In this case permission to
photocopy is not required from the publisher.
ISBN-13 978-981-4335-47-8
ISBN-10 981-4335-47-9
Printed in Singapore.
Kabir (1450–1518)
v
This page intentionally left blank
May 12, 2011 14:38 9in x 6in Topics in Probability b1108-fm
CONTENTS
Preface ix
Abbreviations xi
1. Probability Distributions 1
1.1. Elementary Properties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2. Convolutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.3. Moments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.4. Convergence Properties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2. Characteristic Functions 11
2.1. Regularity Properties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.2. Uniqueness and Inversion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.3. Convergence Properties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.3.1. Convergence of types . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.4. A Criterion for c.f.’s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.5. Problems for Solution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
vii
May 12, 2011 14:38 9in x 6in Topics in Probability b1108-fm
Bibliography 79
Index 81
May 12, 2011 14:38 9in x 6in Topics in Probability b1108-fm
PREFACE
N. U. Prabhu
Ithaca, New York
January 2010
ix
May 12, 2011 14:38 9in x 6in Topics in Probability b1108-fm
ABBREVIATIONS
Term Abbreviation
d
Terminology: We write x = y if the r.v.’s x, y have the same distribution.
xi
May 12, 2011 14:38 9in x 6in Topics in Probability b1108-ch01
Chapter 1
Probability Distributions
1
May 12, 2011 14:38 9in x 6in Topics in Probability b1108-ch01
2 Topics in Probability
This shows that the number of atoms with weights > n1 is at most
equal to n. Let
then the set Dn has at most n points. Therefore the set D = ∪Dn is
at most countable.
May 12, 2011 14:38 9in x 6in Topics in Probability b1108-ch01
Probability Distributions 3
4 Topics in Probability
1.2. Convolutions
Probability Distributions 5
since
∞
|F1 (x − y + h) − F1 (x − y)| ≤ 2, 2dF2 (y) = 2,
−∞
Then
∞ x
F (x) = dF2 (y) f1 (u − y)du
−∞ −∞
x ∞
= f1 (u − y)dF2 (y) du
−∞ −∞
Remarks.
1. If X1 , X2 are independent random variables with distributions
F1 , F2 , then the convolution F = F1 ∗ F2 is the distribution of their
May 12, 2011 14:38 9in x 6in Topics in Probability b1108-ch01
6 Topics in Probability
sum X1 + X2 . For
F (z) = P {X1 + X2 ≤ z} = dF1 (x)dF2 (y)
x+y≤z
∞ z−y ∞
= dF2 (y) dF1 (x) = F1 (z − y)dF2 (y).
−∞ −∞ −∞
However, it should be noted that dependent random variables X1 , X2
may have the property that the distribution of their sum is given by
the convolution of their distributions.
2. The converse of Theorem 1.5 is false. In fact two singular distri-
butions may have a convolution which is absolutely continuous.
3. The conjugate of any distribution F is defined as the distribution
F̃ , where
F̃ (x) = 1 − F (−x− ).
If F is the distribution of the random variable X, then F̃ is the
distribution of −X. The distribution F is symmetric if F = F̃ .
4. Given any distribution F , we can symmetrize it by defining the
distribution ◦ F , where
◦
F = F ∗ F̃ .
It is seen that ◦ F is a symmetric distribution. It is the distribution
of the difference X1 − X2 , where X1 , X2 are independent variables
with the same distribution F .
1.3. Moments
Probability Distributions 7
This shows that the existence of the moment of order β implies the
existence of all moments of order α < β.
the first term on the right side of (1.10) vanishes as t → ∞ and the
integral there converges as t → ∞.
8 Topics in Probability
provided that the integrals exist. In this put ψ1 (x) = xat1 , ψ2 (x) =
xbt2 , where t1 , t2 ∈ I. Then
or taking logarithms,
Probability Distributions 9
10 Topics in Probability
Chapter 2
Characteristic Functions
√
where i = −1, ω real. This integral exists, since
∞ ∞
iωx
|e |dF (x) = dF (x) = 1. (2.2)
−∞ −∞
11
May 12, 2011 14:38 9in x 6in Topics in Probability b1108-ch02
12 Topics in Probability
∞
(b) φ̄(ω) = −∞ e−iωx F (dx) = φ(−ω). Moreover, let F̃ (x) =
1 − F (−x− ). Then
∞ ∞ ∞
iωx −iωx
e F̃ {dx} = e F̃ {−dx} = e−iωx F {dx}.
−∞ −∞ −∞
= φ1 (ω)φ2 (ω).
Thus the product φ1 φ2 is the c.f. of the convolution F1 ∗ F2 .
Clearly φ(2π/λ) = 1.
May 12, 2011 14:38 9in x 6in Topics in Probability b1108-ch02
Characteristic Functions 13
Remarks.
1. If F is the distribution of a random variable, then we can write
φ(ω) = E(eiωX )
so that the c.f. is the expected value of eiωX . We have φ(−ω) =
E(e−iωX ), so that φ(−ω) is the c.f. of the random variable −X. This
is Theorem 2.1(b).
2. If X1 , X2 are two independent random variables with c.f.’s φ1 , φ2 ,
then
φ1 (ω)φ2 (ω) = E[eiω(X1 +X2 ) ]
so that the product φ1 φ2 is the c.f. of the sum X1 + X2 . This is only
a special case of Theorem 2.2, since the convolution F1 ∗ F2 is not
necessarily defined for independent random variables.
3. If φ is the c.f. of the random variable X, then |φ|2 is the c.f. of
the symmetrized variable X1 − X2 , where X1 , X2 are independent
variables with the same distribution as X.
14 Topics in Probability
Characteristic Functions 15
theorem that
∞
φ(ω + h) − φ(ω)
→ ixeiωx dF (x)
h −∞
as required. Clearly, this limit is continuous.
(c) We have
n
(iωx)n
eiωx = + o(ω n xn ) (ω → 0)
n=0
n!
so that
∞ n
∞
iωx (iω)n
e dF (x) = 1 + µn + o(ω n xn )dF (x),
−∞ n! −∞
n=1
where the last term on the right side is seen to be o(ω n ).
Remark . The converse of (b) is not always true: thus φ (ω) may
exist, but the mean may not. A partial converse is the following:
Suppose that φ(n) (ω) exists. If n is even, then the first n moments
exist, while if n is odd, the first n − 1 moments exist.
16 Topics in Probability
2 2
and variance a−2 , and therefore equals e−(x−y) /2a . We therefore
obtain the identity
∞ ∞
1 − 12 a2 ω 2 −iωy 1 1 2
e φ(ω)dω = √ e− 2a2 (y−x) dF (x)
2π −∞ −∞ 2πa
(2.6)
for all a > 0. We note that the right side of (2.6) is the density of the
convolution F ∗ Na , where Na is the normal distribution with mean
0 and variance a2 . Now if G is a second distribution with the c.f. φ,
it follows from (2.6) that F ∗ Na = G ∗ Na . Letting a → 0+ we find
that F ≡ G as required.
Characteristic Functions 17
1
uh (x) = for −h < x < 0, and = 0 elsewhere.
h
and c.f.
∞
1 − e−iωh
φh (ω) = φ(ω) · eiωx uh (x)dx = φ(ω) · .
−∞ iωh
18 Topics in Probability
∞ ∞
u(x)dFn (x) → u(x)dF (x)
−∞ −∞
Characteristic Functions 19
E(Xn ) = µ, Var(Xn ) = σ 2
Proof. The random variables (Xn −µ)/σ have mean zero and vari-
ance unity. Let their common c.f. be φ. Then the c.f. of (Sn − nµ)/
√
σ n is
√ 1 2
φ(ω/ n)n = [1 − ω 2 /2n + 0(1/n)]n → e− 2 ω
where the limit is the c.f. of the standard normal distribution. The
desired result follows by the continuity theorem.
20 Topics in Probability
for all points of continuity, with αn > 0, an > 0, and G and H are
non-degenerate distributions, then
αn βn − bn
→ a, →b and G(x) = H(ax + b) (2.14)
an an
(0 < a < ∞, |b| < ∞).
Characteristic Functions 21
22 Topics in Probability
n n
∞
= ar eiωr n ās e−iωs x dF (x)
−∞ 1 1
n 2
∞
iωr x
= ar e dF (x) ≥ 0
−∞ i
where
|t|
1− τ φ(t) for |t| ≤ τ
φτ (t) = .
0 for |t| ≥ τ
May 12, 2011 14:38 9in x 6in Topics in Probability b1108-ch02
Characteristic Functions 23
= I1 + I2 + I3 (say).
We have
B B
I3 = eiωx Fn {dx} − eiωx F {dx}
A A
B
iωx
= {e [Fn (x) − F (x)]}B
A − iω eiωx [Fn (x) − F (x)]dx
A
May 12, 2011 14:38 9in x 6in Topics in Probability b1108-ch02
24 Topics in Probability
and so
for n sufficiently large. Also, since |Fn (x) − F (x)| ≤ 2 and Fn (x) →
F (x) at points of continuity of F , we have for |ω| < Ω
B B
|ω| |Fn (x) − F (x)|dx ≤ Ω |Fn (x) − F (x)|dx < ε/9.
A A
Thus
|I3 | < ε/3.
Characteristic Functions 25
Chapter 3
Analytic Characteristic
Functions
In this case φ(θ) converges in the strip −α < σ < β of the complex
plane, and we say (in view of Theorem 3.1 below) that F has an
analytic c.f. φ. If α = β = ∞ the c.f. is said to be entire (analytic on
the whole complex plane).
27
May 12, 2011 14:38 9in x 6in Topics in Probability b1108-ch03
28 Topics in Probability
λk θ
Poisson: f (k) = e−λ eλ(e −1)
whole plane
k!
Therefore
∞
|I| ≤ eσx |h||x|2 (1 + |hx|/1! + |hx|2 /2! + · · · )dF (x)
−∞
∞
≤ |h| eσx+δ|x|+|h||x|dF (x) < ∞
−∞
Thus φ (θ) exists for θ in the interior of the strip, which means that
φ(θ) is analytic there.
Proof. We have
∞
|φ(σ + iω1 ) − φ(σ + iω2 )| = e (e 1 − e 2 )dF (x)
σx iω x iω x
−∞∞
≤ eσx |ei(ω1 −ω2 )x − 1|dF (x)
−∞
∞
=2 eσx |sin(ω1 − ω2 )(x/2)|dF (x).
−∞
Proof. φ(iω) is the c.f. discussed in Chapter 2 and the result fol-
lows by the uniqueness theorem of that section.
Theorem 3.4. The function log φ(σ) is convex in the interior of the
strip of convergence.
May 12, 2011 14:38 9in x 6in Topics in Probability b1108-ch03
30 Topics in Probability
Proof. We have
d2 φ(σ)φ (σ) − φ (σ)2
log φ(σ) =
dσ 2 φ(σ)2
and by the Schwarz inequality
∞ 2 ∞ 2
1 1
2
φ (σ) = σx
xe dF (x) = e 2 · xe 2 dF (x)
σx σx
−∞ −∞
∞ ∞
≤ e dF (x) ·
σx
x2 eσx dF (x) = φ(σ)φ (σ).
−∞ −∞
d2
Therefore dσ2 log φ(σ) ≥ 0, which shows that log φ(σ) is convex.
3.2. Moments
Recall that
∞ ∞
µn = xn dF (x), νn |x|n dF (x)
−∞ −∞
the series being convergent in |θ| < δ = min(α, β). The converse is
stated in the following theorem.
n
Theorem 3.5. If all moments of F exist and the series µn θn! has
a nonzero radius of convergence ρ, then φ exists in |σ| < ρ, and
inside the circle |θ| < ρ,
∞
θn
φ(θ) = µn .
n!
0
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dearest, please! Let’s not quarrel again. Let’s—”
He came toward her. She stepped back.
“Don’t!” she cried. “Don’t! I— Oh, I can hardly believe all this! It
doesn’t seem possible that it is you who have said such things. The
last time you were here, when you said what you did about Uncle
Foster I—well, after you had gone I tried to find excuses for you. I
knew you were disappointed and—well, I was sure you didn’t mean
what you said and would tell me so when we met again. And now,
instead of that, you say the same things—or worse. So you did mean
them, after all.”
“Well—well—oh, hang it all! Esther, I said—I said what I believed—
yes. And I believe it now.”
“Then you believe my uncle is a scamp and a hypocrite and a liar—
and I don’t know what beside. You believe that!”
“I didn’t call him a liar. But I do believe all this keeping you at home
and telling me that I ought to go is just a part of his scheme to
separate us. Yes, and I believe you think it is, too—or you would if
you weren’t so loyal to him and would let yourself think honestly.... I
won’t say that he has lied, exactly, but—”
“Why not? You have called Seymour Covell a liar. Not to his face—
oh, no! But behind his back—to me.”
“Well—I—”
“That is enough. I don’t want to hear any more. Not a word.”
“But, Esther—”
“No. I have learned a great deal to-night. You paid no attention to my
wishes. You say yourself that you had no intention of promising what
I asked, even when you knew it was as hard for me as it could be for
you, and that I asked it just for your sake. And then—as if that wasn’t
enough—you let me see that you are going to stay here because
you don’t trust me out of your sight.”
“I do. I didn’t say—”
“Yes, you did. Well, you may do as you please. And I shall do as I
please. Good-night.”
“Esther—”
“Good-night.”
He held out his arms. Then, as she made no move nor spoke, the
temper, which he had fought so hard to conquer, got the better of
him again.
“All right,” he said, turning. “All right, then. I said I wasn’t a fool. I was
wrong, I guess; I have been one, even if I’m not now. You care a
whole lot more for your old scamp of an uncle than you do for me,
and you can order me out and let this Covell stay.... I have learned a
few things myself this evening.... Good-night!”
He strode from the room and, a moment later, the front door of the
Townsend mansion closed behind him.
This time the parting was absolute, irrevocable, final; they were sure
of it, both of them. And they were too angry to care—then.
CHAPTER XVI
FOSTER TOWNSEND was noticing a change in his niece’s manner
and behavior. The change, it seemed to him, dated from the evening
when Seymour Covell and Bob Griffin renewed their
acquaintanceship in the library, when they met in his own and
Esther’s presence. At least, if not that evening, then certainly the
next morning. Prior to that, for two weeks or more, she had been, he
thought, unusually grave and quiet, and at times in her manner
toward him there was—or he fancied there was—a certain constraint
which he did not understand. He did not question her concerning it;
that troubled conscience of his made him not too eager to press an
understanding. She could not have learned from Jane Carter the real
reason why her European trip had been given up. He had sworn the
Carter woman to secrecy and her obligation to him was too great to
allow her to risk dropping a hint to Esther in the letters which the
latter occasionally received.
Nevertheless there was something wrong. He thought it quite
probable that, as Griffin did not call, the pair might have had a falling
out. Soon, however, he heard of Elisha Cook’s illness and Bob’s
absence was explained. The telegram announcing Seymour Covell’s
visit, followed by the prompt appearance of that young man at the
Townsend mansion took his mind from other matters and he ceased
to wonder concerning Esther’s odd behavior. Then, all at once, her
behavior became still more odd, although in an exactly opposite way,
and was again forced upon his attention.
From the morning following the Griffin call—a surprisingly short one
it had seemed to him considering their fortnight’s separation—her
gravity and preoccupation disappeared. Now she very seldom went
to her room to remain there alone for an hour or more. She was with
him or with Covell the greater part of every day and in the evenings.
She was always ready to sing or play when asked and from being
but passively interested in the “Pinafore” production she became
very eager and seemed to look forward to each rehearsal. These
rehearsals were almost nightly as the date of performance drew
near, and between times Josephine and Rackstraw spent hours
practicing their scenes together in the parlor at or beside the piano.
And Bob Griffin came no more to the house.
Esther’s attitude toward Seymour Covell had changed also. When
he first came she was pleasant and agreeable when in his company,
but she never sought that company. In fact, her uncle was inclined to
feel that she kept away from it as much as she politely could. There
was no doubt whatever that Covell sought hers. From the moment of
their introduction he had sought it. During his first meal at the
Townsend table he, as Nabby told her husband, repeating what the
maid had told her, looked at Esther “a whole lot more than he did at
what was on his plate.”
“Did she look at him as much as all that?” Varunas had asked.
“I didn’t hear. I don’t know’s I’d blame her much if she did. He’s worth
lookin’ at. Handsome a young feller as I’ve ever set eyes on. I don’t
know’s I shan’t be fallin’ in love with him myself,” Nabby added, with
a surprising affectation of kittenishness.
Varunas seemed to find it surprising enough. He looked at her for a
moment and then turned on his heel.
“Where you goin’ now?” his wife demanded.
“Down street—to buy you a lookin’ glass,” he retorted and slammed
the door.
This new change in Esther affected her relations with the visitor. She
avoided him no longer. They were together a great deal, although, to
be entirely honest, he was still the pursuer. Foster Townsend was not
wholly satisfied with this condition of affairs. He liked young Covell
well enough; for the matter of that it would have been hard not to like
him. As Covell, Senior, wrote in his first letter, he possessed the
knack of making people like him at first sight. Varunas, crotchety as
he very often was, liked him immensely, although he refused to
admit it to his wife, who was continually chanting praises.
Townsend was a good judge of men and prided himself upon that
faculty, so, although he found his friend’s son agreeable, witty, a
fascinating talker and the best of company, he reserved his decision
concerning what might lie beneath all these taking qualities until he
should come to know him better. As he would have expressed it, he
wanted time to find out how he “wore.” There were some objections
already in his mind. He expressed one of them to Varunas, with
whom he was likely to be as confidential as with any one except his
niece—or, of course and at times, with Reliance Clark.
“He’s almost too good looking,” he said. “I never saw one of those
fellows yet—one so pretty that he looked as if he belonged in a
picture book—who wasn’t spoiled by fool women. There are enough
of that kind in Harniss who would like nothing better than the chance
to spoil this one; that is plain enough already. And he doesn’t mind
their trying—that is just as plain.”
Varunas nodded. He had half a mind to repeat a few stories he had
heard. There was Margery Wheeler, people were saying that she
was making a fool of herself over young Covell, although they did
say that he paid little attention to her. And there was a girl named
Campton, whose family lived on the lower road, not far from Tobias
Eldridge’s home, who was pretty and vivacious and who bore the
local reputation of being a “great hand for the fellows.” She had a
passable voice and was one of Sir Joseph Porter’s “sisters or
cousins or aunts” in the “Pinafore” chorus. She and Seymour Covell
were friendly, it was said. Mrs. Tobias Eldridge was responsible for
the report that he had been seen leaving the Campton cottage at a
late hour. Mrs. Eldridge confided to a bosom friend that, from what
she could make out, he didn’t come to that cottage very early either.
“Saw Esther home from rehearsal first and then went down to Carrie
Campton’s without tellin’ anybody; that’s my guess, if you want to
know,” she whispered. “But for heaven’s sake don’t say I ever said
such a thing. Course it may not be true, but Tobias himself saw
somebody he was sure was him comin’ out of their front door at
twelve o’clock last time he went to lodge meetin’. Last time Tobias
went, I mean.”
The bosom friend had imparted this confidence, as a secret not to be
divulged, to another bosom friend, and, at last, some one had
whispered it to Varunas Gifford. Varunas was tempted to tell the
story to his employer, but decided not to do so. It might stir up
trouble; you never could tell how Cap’n Foster would take a yarn of
that kind. He would be just as likely as not to declare it was all a lie,
and no one’s business anyhow, and give him—Varunas—fits for
repeating it. And, after all, it was no one’s business—except
Seymour’s. Young fellows were only young once and Carrie
Campton was “cute” and attractive. Varunas cherished the illusion
that when he, himself, was young he had been a heartbreaker. And
he liked Covell. So he said nothing about the rumored philandering.
The advance sale of seats for the “Pinafore” production had
exceeded all expectations. And the evening of the performance
brought to the town hall the largest audience it had ever held, even
larger than that attending the Old Folks’ Concert. Miss Abbie
Makepeace, who contributed the Harniss “locals” to the Item, sat up
until three o’clock the following morning writing rhapsodies
concerning the affair. She used up the very last half inch of space
allotted to her and interesting jottings like “Our well known boniface
Mrs. Sarepta Ginn will close her select boarding house and hostelry
on the fifteenth of the month for the season as usual” were obliged to
be put over for another week. Abbie’s whole column was filled with
naught but “Pinafore.” “I never supposed there could be anything
else as important as that happen in this town in one week,” she
explained to Reliance Clark the next day. “If I’d ever expected—but,
my soul, who could expect such a thing!”
Varunas made no less than three trips from the mansion to the hall
that evening. His first passengers were Esther and Seymour Covell,
who, being performers, were obliged to be on hand early for dress
and make-up. The next occupants of the rear seat were Foster
Townsend and Captain and Mrs. Benjamin Snow. The Snow carryall
was in the paintshop and Townsend had invited them to ride with
him. Nabby and the maid were the third load. It was not until the
Giffords were in their seats at the hall that Varunas found opportunity
to ask the question which was in his mind.
“Nabby,” he whispered, “is anything the matter between Seymour
and Esther? Have they had a fallin’ out or anything?”
His wife turned to look at him. “What makes you ask that?” she
whispered, in return.
“The way they acted all the time I was drivin’ ’em down here to-night.
Never hardly spoke a word to each other, they didn’t. That is, she
never. He set out to once or twice, but she scarcely so much as
answered him. Anything happened that you know of?”
She shook her head. “They was that way all through supper,” she
said. “Cap’n Foster noticed it, too. The hired girl said she
suspicioned somethin’ was up, so I made an excuse and went into
the dinin’ room myself. They was mum as a deef and dumb asylum
when I was there and I see the cap’n watchin’ ’em and pullin’ his
whiskers the way he does when he’s bothered. I couldn’t make it out.
They were sociable as could be at dinner time and I heard ’em
singin’ their songs and laughin’ in the parlor afterwards. Whatever
happened must have been after that, that’s sure.”
Varunas nodded. “Oh, well,” he observed philosophically, “probably
’tain’t nothin’ much. They’ll get over it. Young fellows and girls are
always squabblin’ when they’re keepin’ company. Huh,” with a
chuckle, “I remember one time when I was sparkin’ around with—”
He paused and changed the subject. “There’s Cornelius Gott,
struttin’ in,” he said. “Goin’ to lead the music, they tell me. Got his
funeral clothes on, of course. He gives me the creeps, that feller
does. When I think of all the folks he’s helped lay out—Godfreys!”
Mrs. Gifford ignored the talented Cornelius.
“Why didn’t you finish what you was sayin’ first along?” she
demanded, tartly. “Who was this one you used to spark around with?
I don’t recollect ever hearin’ about her afore.”
Her husband shifted on the settee. “Oh, nobody, I guess,” he
muttered. “I was just talkin’.”
“Humph! I guess ’twas a nobody, too. Nobody that was anybody
would have done much sparkin’ with you.”
“Is that so? Well, I never noticed you lockin’ the door when I used to
trot around three times a week.... Oh, well, there, there! let’s don’t
fight about what can’t be helped—I mean what’s past and gone. If
Seymour and Esther have had a rumpus probably ’twon’t last long....
I don’t know, though; she’s pretty fussy. All the Townsends are hard
to please. You’ve got to step just so or they’ll light on you. Look how
that Griffin boy was hangin’ around; and now where is he? Don’t
come nigh the place.”
Nabby sniffed. “He never amounted to anything,” she declared. “I
knew perfectly well Esther’d hand him his walkin’ ticket when she got
ready. Mercy on us, Varunas Gifford, you ain’t puttin’ old Lisha
Cook’s grandson in the same barrel with Mr. Covell, are you?”
The overture began just then and the curtain rose soon afterward.
The group of tars adjacent to the rickety canvas bulwarks of the
good ship “Pinafore” announced that they sailed the ocean blue,
taking care to obey orders and not lean against those bulwarks.
They welcomed their gallant captain, who in turn informed them that
he never swore a big, big D. Abbie Makepeace glanced anxiously at
the Rev. Mr. Colton when she heard this; but, as he was smiling, she
decided it might be proper to smile a little, too. Rackstraw and
Josephine and Dick Deadeye and Sir Joseph and all the rest made
their entrances and were greeted with applause. The performance
swung on, gaining momentum and spirit as the performers recovered
from stage fright. The voice of the prompter was heard not too
frequently and none of the scenery fell down, although it suffered
from acute attacks of the shivers. A great success, from beginning to
end.
But, whereas at the Old Folks’ Concert, Esther Townsend had
scored the unquestioned hit of the evening; on this occasion her
triumph was shared by another. If, as Josephine, she was applauded
and encored and acclaimed, so also was Seymour Covell as Ralph
Rackstraw. If some of the mothers and fathers in that hall could have
read the minds of their daughters while that handsome sailor was on
the stage, they might have been surprised and disturbed. Covell was
entirely at ease. There was no awkwardness or stage fright in his
acting or singing. His voice rang strong and true, he played his part
with grace and dash, and when in the final chorus, arrayed in the
glittering uniform of a captain in the Royal Navy, he clasped
Josephine in his arms and tunefully declared that the “clouded sky
was now serene,” even the demurely proper Miss Makepeace was
conscious of a peculiar thrill beneath the bosom of her black silk.
The fascinating young gentleman from Chicago was before, as well
as behind, the footlights the hero of the performance.
Esther, in spite of the applause and encores, the floral tributes and
the praise of her associates behind the scenes, was conscious that
she was not doing her best. Even in the midst of her most important
scenes she found her thoughts wandering miserably. Memories of
the happy evening of the concert kept intruding upon her mind.
When the bouquets were handed her by Mr. Gott she accepted them
smilingly, but with no inward enthusiasm. Her uncle’s floral tribute
was even more beautiful and expressive than on the former occasion
and from her Aunt Reliance came a bunch of old-fashioned posies
which were lovely and fragrant. A magnificent cluster of carnations
bore the card of Seymour Covell. She scarcely looked at them; she
and Mr. Covell had had an unpleasant scene in the parlor that
afternoon. He might not have meant to be presuming—he had
protested innocence of any such intention and had contritely begged
her pardon—but she was not in a forgiving mood. It had been a
horrid day and the evening was just as detestable. She cared little
for the approval of her friends and nothing whatever for the flowers
they gave her. There were no tea roses among them. Bob Griffin
was not in the audience. She had looked everywhere for him but he
was not there. There was no reason why he should be, of course.
Considering the way he had treated her he would have been brazen
indeed to come.
She bore the congratulations and handshakes as best she could, but
she whispered to her uncle that she was very tired and begged to be
taken home as soon as possible. The Snows were left at their door
and she and Foster Townsend and Nabby and Varunas rode back to
the mansion together. Seymour Covell remained at the hall. He had
promised to help in the “clearing up.” He suggested that he be
permitted to walk home when the clearing up was over, but to this
Captain Townsend would not consent. “Varunas will drive back for
you,” he said. An argument followed, for Covell insisted that he might
not be ready to leave for two hours or more and Gifford must not be
kept from his bed so long. It ended in a compromise. Varunas was to
drive the span to the hall once more, hitch the horses in one of the
sheds at the rear, and return to the mansion on foot.
“By the time you’re through, Seymour,” declared the captain, “you
won’t want to do any more walking. You’ll be glad enough to ride. It
won’t do the horses any harm to stand in the shed a warm night like
this.”
Esther went to her own room, almost immediately after her arrival at
the big house. She was too weary even to talk, she told her uncle.
Townsend announced his own intention of “turning in” at once. “No
need for any of us to sit up for Seymour,” he added. “I told Varunas
he needn’t, either. Seymour will do his own unharnessing. He is
handy with horses and he’ll attend to the span; he told me he would.”
So, within an hour after the fall of the final curtain, the Townsend
mansion was, except for the hanging lamp burning dimly in the front
hall, as dark as most of the other houses in Harniss. The lights in the
town hall were extinguished just before midnight. The rattle of the
last carriage wheel along the main road or the depot road or the
Bayport road died away. From the window of the bedroom in their
house on the lower road Mr. Tobias Eldridge peered forth for his
usual good-night look at the sky and the weather.
“Clear as a bell,” announced Tobias. “Never see so many stars in my
life, don’t know as I ever did. Lights things up pretty nigh much as
moonlight.”
“Oh, come to bed,” ordered his wife, who was already there. “I never
see such a man to sit up when there wasn’t any need for it. I’ll bet
you there ain’t another soul wastin’ kerosene along this road from
beginnin’ to end. Do put out that lamp.”
Her husband chuckled. “You’d lose your bet,” he observed. “There’s
a light in the Campton settin’-room. I can see it from here. Carrie
ain’t home yet, I guess. Say, she looked mighty pretty up there on
the stage to-night, didn’t she?”
Mrs. Eldridge sniffed. “She done her best to look that way,” she said.
“Paint and powder and I don’t know what all! If I was her folks she’d
be to home before this, now I tell you. Put out that lamp!”
Tobias obeyed orders. “Women are funny critters,” he philosophized.
“You are all down on Carrie because she is pretty and the boys like
her. Next to Esther Townsend she was the best-lookin’ girl in that
show to-night. I heard more than one say so, too.”
“Umph! More men, you mean. I don’t doubt it. Well, handsome is that
handsome does, but men don’t never pay attention to that. There’s
no fool like an old fool—especially an old man fool. Well, you’re in
bed at last, thank goodness! Now let’s see if there is such a thing as
sleep.”
If Tobias had been permitted to remain longer at the window, and if
he had looked up the beach and away from the village instead of
down the road leading toward it, he might have noticed another
yellow glare flash into being behind the dingy panes of a building not
far from his post of observation. He would have been surprised and
perhaps disturbed to the point of investigation had he seen it, for the
building was his own property; this light came from the bracket lamp
in Bob Griffin’s “studio” beyond the low point, facing the sea.
Esther had been wrong when she decided that Bob was not in the
town hall during the performance of “Pinafore.” He had made up his
mind not to go near the place. He had no wish to see her under such
conditions. He tried to convince himself that he never wished to see
her again—anywhere, at any time. She had treated him abominably.
She had led him on, had encouraged—or, at least, had never
discouraged—his visits and his society. She must have guessed that
he was falling in love with her; surely it was plain enough. And then,
when circumstances had forced from him avowal of that love, she
had not—no, she had not resented it. She had even allowed him to
think that his affection was, to an extent, returned. And she had been
glad when he announced his intention of joining her in Paris. And
then—oh, he must not think of the happenings since then!
Well, he was through with her forever. Absolutely through. He could
go to Paris now with a clear conscience. His grandfather was
practically well again and he might go when he pleased. Yet so far
he had made no new reservations nor set a date for his departure.
To be away, far away, where he could not see her or hear of her
ought, considering everything, to have been an alluring prospect—
but it was not.
On the evening of the opera he had remained with his grandfather
until the latter’s early hour for retiring. Then he came downstairs and
tried to read, but soon threw down his book and went out. He
harnessed the horse to the buggy and drove out of the yard with no
definite destination in mind. The horse, perhaps from force of habit,
turned east along the main road. Later that main road became the
main road of Harniss. By that time Bob had decided to go to the town
hall—never mind why; he, himself, was not certain. He left the horse
and buggy at the local livery stable. It was after eight when he
climbed the steps of the hall. The curtain had risen and there was
“standing room only,” so the ticket seller told him. He crowded in
behind a double row of other standees at the rear of the ranks of
benches and remained there, looking and listening, to the bitter end.
It was bitter. When she made her first entrance and smiled in
pleased surprise at the applause which greeted her, he began to
suffer the pangs of self-torture. The sight of her, beautiful, charming,
the sound of her voice, the zest with which she played her part—all
these were like poisoned arrows to him. If she had shown the least
evidence of the misery she should have felt, which he was feeling—
but she did not. To all outward appearance she was happy, she was
enjoying herself. She had forgotten him entirely. And the tender
looks which she bestowed upon Seymour Covell as her sailor lover
were altogether too convincing. Those love scenes which Bob had
resentfully remembered when she told him Covell was to play
Rackstraw were far worse in their portrayal than in his fancy. A
dozen times he was on the point of leaving the hall, but he did not
leave; he remained and saw and suffered. Furiously jealous, utterly
wretched, he stood there until the curtain fell. Then he hurried out
into the night, eager to get away from her, from the crowd, from
everybody—from his own thoughts, if that were possible.
It was not, of course. At first he started toward the stable where he
had left the Cook horse and buggy. Half-way there he changed his
mind and, leaving the main road, turned down the lower road until he
came to the beach. He was in no hurry to get back to Denboro. His
grandfather was sure to be awake and expecting him and ready for
questions and conversation. He would have to tell where he had
been and, if he mentioned the “Pinafore” performance, that would
have to be described in detail. He simply could not talk about it now,
that evening, and he would not. The memory of the final tableau,
with Esther and Covell in close embrace, was—was— If he could
only forget it! If he could forget her!
He tramped the beach for miles in the starlight. At last, suddenly
awakening to a realization of the distance he had traveled, he turned
and walked back again. He endeavored to dismiss the evening’s
torture from his mind and to center his thinking upon himself and
what his own course should be. The sensible thing was to go abroad
at once. He would go. Then, having clenched his teeth upon this
determination, he immediately unclenched them.... To go and leave
her with her scheming uncle had been bad enough, but to leave her
with this other fellow, who was, of course, just one more pawn in the
Townsend game, that was the point where his resolution stuck and
refused to pass.
He came opposite his beach studio and, acting upon a sudden
impulse, unlocked the door and entered. He lighted the bracket lamp
and sat down in a chair to continue his thinking, and, if possible,
reach some decision. It was as hard to reach there as it had been
during his walk. Covell—Covell—Covell! For that fellow to marry
Esther Townsend! Yet, on the other hand, why not? Handsome,
accomplished, fascinating—the son of a millionaire! And backed by
the influence of the big mogul of Ostable County! What chance had
Elisha Cook’s grandson against that combination? If Esther had ever
really loved him—Bob Griffin—then— But she did not. She had
thrown him off like an old glove. Then, in heaven’s name, why was
he such a fool as to waste another thought on her?
He rose from the chair determined to sail for Europe by the next
steamer. He blew out the lamp, locked the door, and started, walking
more briskly now, in the general direction of the livery stable. Still
thinking and debating, in spite of his brave determination, he had
reached a point just beyond the Campton cottage on the lower road
when he heard a sound which caused him to awaken from his
nightmare. A thick dump of silver-leaf saplings bordered the road at
his left and in their black shadow he saw a bulk of shadow still
blacker, a shadow which moved. He walked across to investigate.
As he came near the shadow assumed outline. A two-seated
carriage and a pair of horses. He recognized the outfit at once. The
horses were the Townsend span and the carriage the Townsend
“two-seater.” He could scarcely believe it. What on earth were they
doing there, on the lower road, at this time of night—or morning?
The idea that the span might have run away, or wandered off by
themselves, was dispelled when, upon examination, he found them
attached by a leather hitching strap to the stockiest of the silver-leaf
saplings. This, of course, but made the puzzle still harder to answer.
Who had brought them there? Varunas alone; or Varunas acting as
driver for Foster Townsend? But, if Townsend had come to one of the
few houses on that part of the road, where was Varunas, who would,
naturally, remain with the horses? And if Varunas had come alone—
why? And there was no dwelling within fifty yards of that spot.
Bob turned and looked up the road. The nearest house was that
occupied by Henry Campton, father of Carrie Campton whom Bob
knew slightly and had seen that evening in the “Pinafore” chorus at
the town hall. The Campton cottage was on the other side of the
way, but its windows were dark. He turned to look in the opposite
direction and as he did so, he heard, from somewhere behind him, a
door close softly. Turning once more, he saw a figure walking rapidly
toward the spot where the span was tethered.
Bob started to walk away and then hesitated. He was curious,
naturally. If the person approaching was Captain Foster Townsend
he had no wish to meet him; but if, as was more probable, the
person was Varunas Gifford then he was tempted to wait and ask
what he was doing there at two o’clock in the morning. So he
remained in the shadow by the carriage. It was not until the
newcomer was within a few feet of him that the recognition came.
The man who had come out of the Campton house was neither
Townsend nor Gifford, but Seymour Covell.
Covell did not recognize Bob. It was not until the latter moved that he
grasped the fact that there was any one there. Then he started,
stopped and leaned forward to look.
“Who is that?” he demanded, sharply. Bob stepped out from the
shadow.
“It is all right, Covell,” he said. “Don’t be alarmed.”
Covell did not, apparently, recognize him even then. He stood still
and tried to peer under the shade of the Griffin hatbrim.
“Who is it?” he repeated, his tone still sharply anxious.
Bob pushed back the hat. “Griffin,” he answered. “It is all right.
Nothing to be frightened about.”
Covell took a step toward him. “Eh?” he queried. “What—? Oh, it is
you, is it! I couldn’t see.” Then, after a moment, he added: “What are
you doing here?”
The tone in which the question was put was neither pleasant nor
polite. There was resentment in it and suspicion, so it seemed to
Griffin. He was strongly tempted to counter with an inquiry of his
own, for surely his presence at that spot at that time was not more
out of the ordinary than Seymour Covell’s. His explanation was easy
to give, however, so he gave it.
“Nothing in particular,” he replied. “I have been down at my shanty,
the one I use as a studio, and I was walking back when I saw these
horses standing here. I wondered, at first, whose they were and then
why they had been left here at this time of night. So I stopped for a
minute to investigate, that is all.”
The explanation was complete and truthful, but Covell seemed to
find it far from satisfactory.
“Humph!” he grunted, still scrutinizing Griffin intently and with a
frown. “That is all, is it? You weren’t here for any particular reason,
then?”
“No. Why should I be?”
“I don’t know why you should. I can’t see that you need be
concerned with these horses. Nor why they were left here or who left
them, for that matter. What business was it of yours?”
“Not any, I suppose. It seemed a little odd, considering the time.
When I saw whose horses they were I couldn’t imagine why Captain
Townsend or his driver had come to this part of the town so late. I
never thought of you.... Good-night.”
He turned to go, but Covell detained him.
“Wait!” he ordered. “Say, look here, Griffin, there are a good many
odd things about all this, seems to me. I want to know why you—
Say, where is this place you call a studio?”
“A quarter of a mile up the beach. Why?”
“Do you usually spend your nights in it?”
“No.”
“You live in—what is it?—Denboro, don’t you?”
“Yes.”
“Then you are a long way from home, I should say.... Yes, and with a
damned poor excuse, if you want to know.”
Bob did not answer. The fellow’s tone and manner were offensive
and, disliking him as he did and with his own temper set on a hair
trigger just then, he thought it best to leave before the interview
became a quarrel. He turned to go, but Covell caught him by the
shoulder.
“No, you don’t!” he declared. “You don’t get out of it like that. I want
to know why you are hanging around here in the middle of the night.”
Bob shook the grip from his shoulder.
“What is the matter with you, Covell?” he demanded, angrily. “Don’t
speak to me like that.”
“I speak as I please. Now then, out with it! What are you doing
here?”
“I told you. For the matter of that, what are you doing here,
yourself?... Not that I care what you do, of course.”
Covell’s fists clenched. For an instant Bob thought he was going to
strike him. He did not, however. Instead he laughed, mockingly.
“Oh, no, you don’t care, do you?” he sneered. “You don’t care a little
bit. I could see that when we met that night at the Townsends’. Well,
I haven’t met you there since, I’ll say that much.”
It was Bob who narrowed the space between them. His step brought
them face to face.
“Covell,” he said, deliberately, “you are drunk, I suppose. That is the
only excuse I can think of for you. Well, drunk or sober, you may go
to the devil. Do you understand?”
“I understand you all right, Griffin. And I understand why you are
hanging around, trying to find out what I do and where I go. I can
understand that well enough. You cheap sneak!”
Bob scarcely heard the epithet. It was the first part of the speech
which brought enlightenment to his mind. At last he understood, as
he might so easily have understood before if he had had time to
think. Involuntarily he glanced over his shoulder at the Campton
cottage.
“I see!” he exclaimed. “Oh, yes, yes! I see.... Humph!”
Covell had noticed the look and its direction. He raised his hand.
“By gad!” he cried, his voice rising almost to a shout. “I’ll—”
He sprang forward, his fist upraised. Bob, by far the cooler of the
two, seized the lifted arm and held it.
“Hush!” he whispered. “Hush, you fool! There is some one coming.”
Some one was coming, was almost upon them. If they had not been
so absorbed in their own affairs they would have heard the step
minutes before and might have noticed that it had paused as if the
person, whoever he or she might be, had stopped to listen. Now the
steps came on again and the walker, a man, appeared on the
sidewalk opposite. He was evidently looking in their direction.
“Hello!” he hailed, after a moment. “Who is that? What’s the matter?
Anything?”
Bob answered. “No. Nothing is the matter,” he said.
“Oh! I didn’t know but there might be.... Say, who are you, anyhow?”
There was no reply to this. The man—his voice, so Bob thought,
seemed familiar although he could not identify it—took a step
forward as if to cross the road. Then he halted and asked, a little
uneasily: “You’re out kind of late, ain’t you?”
Again it was Bob who answered. “Why, yes, rather,” he said, as
calmly as he could, considering the state of his feelings. “We’re all
right. Don’t let us keep you. You are out rather late yourself, aren’t
you?”
In spite of its forced calmness the tone was not too inviting. The man
stepped back to the sidewalk.
“Why—why, I don’t know but I be,” he stammered, a little anxiously.
After another momentary pause he added, “Well, good-night,” and
hurried on at a pace which became more rapid as he rounded the
other thicket of silver-leaves at the bend just beyond. He passed out
of sight around its edge. Bob, who had been holding the Covell arm
during the interruption, now threw it from him.
“There!” he said, between his teeth. “Now go home, Covell. Go
home. Unless,” with sarcasm, “you have more calls to make between
now and breakfast time. At any rate, get away from me. I have had
enough of you.”
Covell did not move. He was breathing rapidly. “You low down spy!”
he snarled. “I’d like to know whether you are doing your spying on
your own account or whether you were put up to it.... Well,” savagely,
“I’ll tell you one thing; your sneaking tricks won’t get you anywhere
with—with the one you are trying to square yourself with. You can
bet your last dollar on that.”
And now it was Bob who sprang forward. Just what might have
happened if Covell had remained where he was is a question. Bob
was beyond restraint or words. His impulse was to give this fellow
what he richly deserved and to do it then and there.
But Covell sprang backward. Not with the idea of avoiding battle—he
was no coward—but to find space in which to meet it. His leap threw
him against the fore wheel of the Townsend carriage and the shock
almost knocked him from his feet. The nervous horses reared and
pranced. The wheel turned.
“Look out!” shouted Bob, in alarm.
The warning was too late. Covell fell—fell almost beneath the
plunging hoofs. A moment later, when Griffin dragged him from their
proximity, he was white and senseless, an ugly gash in his forehead.
CHAPTER XVII
FOSTER TOWNSEND was, ordinarily, a sound sleeper. Possessed
of a good digestion, he seldom lay awake and seldom dreamed. In
the small hours of the morning following his return from the
“Pinafore” performance his sleep was disturbed. Just what had
disturbed it he was not sure, but he lay with half-opened eyes
awaiting the repetition of the sound, if sound there had actually been.
He did not have to wait long. “Clang! Clang! Clang!” There was no
doubt of the reality now. Some one was turning the handle of the
spring bell on the front door of the mansion.
He scratched a match and looked at his watch on the table by the
bed. The time was after two o’clock. Who in the world would ring that
bell at that hour? And why?
He did not waste moments in speculation. Rising hurriedly he lit the
lamp, pulled on his trousers and thrust his bare feet into slippers.
Then, lamp in hand, he opened the door leading to the upper hall.
The bell had clanged twice during his hasty dressing. He had not
been the only one to hear it. There was a light in Esther’s room, and
its gleam shone beneath her door. From behind that door she spoke.
“Uncle Foster!” she called. “Uncle Foster, is that you? What is it?
What is the matter?”
Before he could reply Nabby Gifford’s shrill voice sounded from the
far end of the passageway leading to the rooms in the ell.
“Is that you, Cap’n Foster?” quavered Nabby, tremulously. “Are you
awake, too?”
Townsend, half-way down the stairs, grunted impatiently, “Do you
think I’m walking in my sleep?” he growled. “Don’t be frightened,
Esther,” he added. “I guess likely it’s Seymour ringing the bell. He
must have forgotten his key.”
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