QUESTIONABLE COUNTING:

DEFENDING EUROPE:
ANALYSING
“GLOBAL THE DEATH
BRITAIN”
TOLL FROM
ANDHAMAS-RUN
THE FUTURE
THE MINISTRY
OFHEALTH
OF EUROPEAN
IN GAZA
GEOPOLITICS
BY ANDREW FOX
BY JAMES ROGERS

CENTRE
FOR NEW
MIDDLE
EAST
DEMOCRACY | FREEDOM | HUMAN RIGHTS December
Report 2024
No. 2018/1
Published in 2024 by The Henry Jackson Society

The Henry Jackson Society

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Tel: +44 (0)20 7340 4520

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© The Henry Jackson Society, 2024. All rights reserved.

Title: “QUESTIONABLE COUNTING: ANALYSING THE DEATH TOLL

FROM THE HAMAS-RUN MINISTRY OF HEALTH IN GAZA”
By Andrew Fox

This report is available for digital download at:

https://henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/questionable-counting/.

The views expressed in this publication are those of the author and are not
necessarily indicative of those of The Henry Jackson Society or its Trustees.

Cover image: Hamas flag on a cracked wall with terrorist shadows by zmotions at Shutterstock
(https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/flag-hamas-painted-on-cracked-wall-2444744521).
QUESTIONABLE COUNTING:
DEFENDING EUROPE:
ANALYSING
“GLOBAL THE DEATH
BRITAIN”
TOLL FROM
ANDHAMAS-RUN
THE FUTURE
THE MINISTRY
OFHEALTH
OF EUROPEAN
IN GAZA
GEOPOLITICS
BY ANDREW FOX
BY JAMES ROGERS

CENTRE
FOR NEW
MIDDLE
EAST
DEMOCRACY | FREEDOM | HUMAN RIGHTS December
Report 2024
No. 2018/1
The soUTh China sea: Why iT maTTeRs To “gLoBaL BRiTain”
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

About Us
About Us

DEMOCRACY | FREEDOM | HUMAN RIGHTS

About The Henry Jackson Society

The Henry
HenryJackson
JacksonSociety
Society
is ais
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for the
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and alliances alliances which
keep keep free,
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The Asia Studies Centre attempts to provide an in-depth understanding of the structural shifts,
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The Centre
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region will account for 40% of global gDP by 2050, a post-Brexit Britain must develop a foreign to
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Established one hand, while
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fallout from the strong support
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the regional
Centre liberal democracies
is dedicated and
to monitoring
international law on the
political, ideological, other.
and military and security developments across the Middle East and
providing informed assessments of their wide-ranging implications to key decision makers.

About the Global Britain Programme

The Global Britain Programme is a research programme within the henry Jackson society that
aims to educate the public on the need for an open, confident and expansive British
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28
2
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

About the Author

Andrew Fox is a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society. He served for 16 years in the
British Army, leaving the Parachute Regiment with the rank of Major. He completed 3 tours
in Afghanistan including one attached to US Army Special Forces, as well as further tours of
Bosnia, Northern Ireland and the Middle East. He was a senior lecturer at the Royal Military
Academy Sandhurst, teaching in the War Studies and Behavioural Science departments. In the
last year he has visited Gaza twice as well as Hezbollah tunnels in Lebanon. Andrew is a regular
Middle East commentator on GB News, TalkTV and LBC radio, and has been published in The
Spectator, The Sun, The Daily Telegraph, New York Post and The Tablet, amongst others.

Acknowledgments

This report is the culmination of a comprehensive effort by the Henry Jackson Society to
address the critical issue of reliability in fatality reporting of the ongoing Gaza War.
We extend our deepest gratitude to the dedicated researchers, analysts and contributors who
have rigorously examined the data presented by the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health: Salo
Aizenberg, Elliot Malin, Dr Mark Zlochin, Patrick Schnecker, Jacob Haddo and Tatiana Glezer,
Head of Fifty.global research group, and the International Institute of Social and Legal Studies.
Their meticulous work has shed light on the numerous statistical issues, methodological flaws
and distortions that significantly impact the global understanding of conflict dynamics.

We also acknowledge the invaluable support and cooperation of various international

scholars, independent experts and media analysts who contributed to this project. Their
expertise and commitment to data integrity and transparency have been instrumental in
challenging widely accepted narratives and fostering a more nuanced and evidence-based
discourse on the complexities of reporting in conflict zones. This report would not have been
possible without their dedication to truth and their unwavering pursuit of accuracy in the face
of significant challenges.

3
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

Contents

About The Henry Jackson Society..................................................................................... 2

About the Centre for New Middle East.............................................................................. 2

About the Author.................................................................................................................. 3

Acknowledgments................................................................................................................. 3

Key Findings........................................................................................................................... 5

Executive Summary............................................................................................................... 6

1. Methodology of Fatality Reporting in Gaza................................................................ 8

Methodology...................................................................................................................................... 8
Men recorded as women................................................................................................................ 9
The demographic breakdown of family reports vs Ministry of Health records............15

2. Statistical Concerns.......................................................................................................18
Demographics..................................................................................................................................19
Hospital Records vs Family Reports..........................................................................................21
Age Variation...................................................................................................................................23

3. Deaths Unrelated to IDF Action.................................................................................. 25

Hamas-Related deaths..................................................................................................................25
Failed Rocket Launches................................................................................................................26
Natural Deaths.................................................................................................................................26
Cancer Patients recorded as War Fatalities...........................................................................27

4. IDF-Reported Militant Deaths.....................................................................................29

5. Reliability of Hamas Fatality Data in Previous Conflicts.........................................31

Operation Cast Lead, December 2008 – January 2009.....................................................31
Operation Protective Edge, July – August 2014....................................................................31
IDF Reports.......................................................................................................................................31
Concealment of Fighter Deaths.................................................................................................32
Other Incidents...............................................................................................................................33

6. International Misrepresentation of Combatants as Civilians.................................34

Key Findings of the Research.....................................................................................................35
Methodology....................................................................................................................................35

7. Conclusion......................................................................................................................36

4
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

Key Findings

Men listed as women to inflate female fatalities. Analysis of Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH)
fatality data reveals repeated instances of men being misclassified as women. Examples
include individuals with male first names (e.g. Mohammed) being recorded as female. This
misclassification contributes to the narrative that civilian populations, particularly women and
children, bear the brunt of the conflict, potentially influencing international sentiment and
media coverage.

Adults registered as children. Significant discrepancies have been uncovered where adult
fatalities are reclassified as children. For instance, an individual aged 22 was listed as a four-
year-old and a 31-year-old was listed as an infant. Such distortions inflate the number of child
casualties, which is emotionally impactful and heavily emphasised in global reporting. These
misrepresentations suggest a deliberate attempt to frame the conflict as disproportionately
affecting children, undermining the credibility of the fatality data.

Disproportionate deaths of fighting-age men. Data analysis indicates that most fatalities are
men aged 15–45, contradicting claims that civilian populations are being disproportionately
targeted. This age demographic aligns closely with the expected profile of combatants, further
supported by spikes in deaths of men reported by family sources rather than hospitals. This
evidence suggests that many fatalities classified as civilian may be combatants, a distinction
omitted from official reporting.

Inclusion of natural deaths in reporting. Despite the typical annual rate of 5,000 natural
deaths in Gaza, the fatality data provides no accounting for such figures. This omission raises
concerns that natural deaths, as well as deaths caused by internal violence or misfired rockets,
are being included in war-related fatality counts. Instances of cancer patients, previously
registered for treatment, appearing on war fatality lists further support this assertion. Such
practices inflate the reported civilian death toll, complicating accurate assessments of the
conflict’s impact.

Media underreporting of combatant deaths. Analysis of media coverage reveals that only 3%
of news stories reference combatant deaths, with outlets like the BBC, CNN, Reuters and The
New York Times primarily relying on Gaza Ministry of Health figures. These figures often lack
verification and fail to distinguish between combatants and civilians. The omission creates
a skewed narrative that portrays all casualties as civilian, thus shaping public opinion and
international policy based on incomplete or manipulated data. For example, more than 17,000
Hamas combatants are estimated to have been killed, yet these figures are largely excluded
from global reporting.

5
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

Executive Summary

On 7 October 2023, Hamas militants launched a war on Israel. After Israel launched its
military response, media outlets around the world began to report on death tolls in Gaza,
frequently citing numbers from the ‘Gaza Ministry of Health’ as though it was a fully independent,
unbiased source.

In reality, the Ministry of Health (MoH) is under the full control of Hamas. It was established
by Hamas in 2007 after it took full control of the Gaza Strip following its violent clashes with
the Fatah faction of the Palestinian Authority. Since then, Hamas has managed governmental
functions in Gaza, including health care services through the MoH.

Given that Hamas is a direct party to the conflict, this creates an obvious conflict of interest.

These MoH figures have been repeatedly cited by major news organisations throughout this
conflict. For example, an April 2024 headline in The Observer stated: ‘Gaza death toll passes
34,000 as Israel and Iran missile strikes grab global attention’. 1 In August 2024, this toll passing
40,000 was the focal point of much of the day’s BBC News coverage, as catalogued by the
Cohen report of September 2024. 2

The reporting of these figures has been analysed by a group of international scholars, who
meticulously analysed reports of Gaza war fatalities from February 2024 through May 2024.
They examined 1,378 articles from major English-language newspapers and media outlets,
specifically The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Guardian, CNN, the BBC, Reuters,
The Associated Press and the Australian ABC.

Over that four-month period, 84% of those publications failed to make the critical distinction
in total numbers between combatant deaths and civilian deaths.

Only 5% of the surveyed media organisations cited numbers released by the Israeli authorities,
while 98% cited fatality figures provided by the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health.

In 19% of media reports examined, numbers provided by Hamas-run institutions were used
without citing any source, thereby suggesting those figures were undisputed.

Furthermore, fewer than one in every 50 articles mentioned that the figures provided by the
MoH were unverifiable or controversial. Strikingly, the Israeli statistics had their credibility
questioned in half of the few articles that incorporated them.

This report raises serious concerns that the Gaza MoH figures have been overstated. The data
behind their figures contains natural deaths, deaths from before this conflict began and deaths
of those killed by Hamas itself; it contains no mention of Hamas combatant fatalities; and it
overstates the number of women and children killed.

Serious errors have been discovered on the Ministry’s lists of fatalities. These errors include
a 22-year-old registered as a four-year-old, a 31-year-old registered as a one-year-old and
several men with male first names registered as female – artificially increasing the numbers of
women and children reported killed. The lists also include people who died before the war and
people who died from attacks by Hamas rather than the Israel Defence Forces (IDF).

1 Emma Graham-Harrison, “Gaza death toll passes 34,000 as Israel and Iran missile strikes grab global attention”, The Observer,
20 April 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/20/gaza-death-toll-passes-34000-israel-iran.
2 Danny Cohen, “BBC Coverage of the Israel–Hamas war”, CAMERA UK, 30 September 2024, https://camera-uk.org/wp-content/
uploads/2024/09/BBC-ISRAEL-GAZA-BIAS-06b.pdf .

6
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

They likely include around 5,000 natural deaths per year, including cancer patients who were
listed by the Ministry for hospital treatment after they had already appeared on fatality lists.
Hamas also claimed hundreds of fatalities from attacks which turned out to be misfired rocket
launches by Gaza factions.

It is indisputable that natural deaths which occur in times of peace would also occur during a
war. The pre-war rate of natural deaths in Gaza is known from relevant mortality data presented
by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, based in Ramallah in the West Bank. 3

Media reports claiming totals killed in Gaza by IDF action have not verified the figures cited
and fail to account for the deaths of upwards of 17,000 Hamas and affiliated combatants as
part of that toll.

This report also shows that the methodology of data collection by the Ministry of Health is
not scientifically valid, and that its reports from previous conflicts have also concealed
combatant deaths.

This fatality analysis recognises the immense toll of the war on Palestinians in Gaza. Even as
fatalities are discussed as quantifiable numbers, it is important to remember that innocent
people are suffering, and each number represents a human life. Many of those lives were
innocent people caught in the middle of a brutal war started by Hamas on 7 October. The
suffering, death and destruction are very real for actual human beings.

An understanding of the Gaza fatality data is critical in understanding the conduct of the war
by the Israel Defense Forces and the State of Israel’s leadership. International humanitarian
law does not require that no harm happen to civilians. Rather, it demands that parties to war
use their best efforts to mitigate harm to civilians. All parties to a war are required to adhere
to certain rules of war. As the United Nations frequently posits: “even war has rules”. 4 When
one party in a war disregards the rules, the consequences do not convict the other party or
prevent them from prosecuting the war. 5

Global media outlets have, understandably, focused on the number of deaths in Gaza as a lens
of critique of Israeli operations. Many media outlets give the proviso that the Gaza Ministry of
Health is Hamas-run, but few give the same level of attention to IDF reports of the numbers
of fighters killed as part of the overall Israeli fatality total. Nor do media outlets give the
methodology, reporting or content of the lists of names the scrutiny they deserve.

A definitive figure of fatalities is impossible, due to the lack of transparency from the MoH,
a general lack of access to the Palestinian Population Registry and the challenges of
counting militants killed in combat. However, this report finds numerous errors that cannot be
explained by a lack of access to the Ministry of Health computer network that went offline in
November 2023.

We have identified distortion of statistics, misreporting of natural deaths, deaths from before
the war started and a high likelihood of combatant deaths being included on the list. This report
also challenges the assumption that MoH fatality reports from previous conflicts are reliable
and reveals evidence of efforts to hide militant fatalities. We also identify critical differences in
the demographic breakdowns reported by the MoH and the Hamas Government Media Office.

3 “Palestine in Figures 2022”, State of Palestine, Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, March 2023, p.16,
https://www.pcbs.gov.ps/Downloads/book2654.pdf.
4 United Nations (@UN), X post, 26 October 2023, 8:59 am, https://x.com/UN/status/1717450868143141359.
5 “Article 28 – Treatment II. Danger zones”, Convention (IV) relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War,
IV Geneva Conventions, 12 August 1949, https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/gciv-1949/article-28.

7
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

1. Methodology of Fatality Reporting in Gaza

The Ministry of Health (MoH) has published its fatality data in two formats: regular statistical
fatality reports and infrequent lists of named fatalities, with six lists published as of publication:
October 2023 and January, April, May, June and August 2024.

All fatalities in the regular reports are referred to as “murdered by IDF action” and no
information regarding the identities of casualties, circumstances of death or their status as
civilian or militant are included. However, analysis of these reports strongly suggests that their
fatality figures incorporate militants, as the lists show that lives lost are disproportionately
young adult men of fighting age. Evidence also reveals that, despite having explicitly claimed
otherwise since 1 April 2024, these figures incorporate natural deaths. 6

Infographics regularly specify that a certain percentage of the fatalities are women and children.
For most of the conflict, this figure has stood at 70% according to Hamas’s Government Media
Office, even though this directly contradicts the MoH reports, where the data sits at 55%
women and under-18s and 45% men.

Up to March 2024, the statistical difference between reports did not exist. Hospital-registered
deaths in the first three months of 2024 are very similar to the statistics of ‘family notification’
reports.

At the beginning of April 2024, this changed. The threshold for reporting quality was reduced,
becoming even lower than it was before. Before, the Government Media Office would accept
“reliable information sources” towards their death tolls, but now “records with incomplete
data” would count towards them as well.

This change injected significant numbers of new deaths of under-18s, supposedly coming from
hospitals, and since then, the MoH and Government Media Office have significantly diverged.
This report therefore suggests that the family reports provide a significantly more reliable
estimate of the actual demographic breakdown than those provided by ‘medical staff’.

Methodology
The varying methodology of fatality recording is a key criticism of the reports published by
the MoH. Three different sources are reported, with limited transparency and no scientific
validation. They are:

1. Hospital records, registered by ‘medical staff’.

2. Unknown ‘information sources’, including media and social media reports.
3. Public submission of information or ‘family notification’.

The Gaza Health Ministry has issued its ‘Martyrs to date’ fatality lists of the people killed in the
conflict periodically since 27 October 2023, listing the name, age, sex and national ID number
of each fatality. These ID numbers derive from the Gazan population register and are issued
to anyone born inside Gaza.

At the start of the war, the MoH used its existing collection system, the Health Information
Centre. This relied on hospitals and morgues to certify deaths. However, as the ground invasion

6 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 3 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5258; “Health Sector
Emergency Report,” Palestinian Ministry of Health, 1 April 2024, https://archive.org/details/moh-gaza-health-sector-
emergency-reports/MOH%20-%20Gaza%20-%204-1/page/n7/mode/2up.

8
 Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

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7 Ben van der Merwe, “Gaza conflict: Thousands remain unidentified as death toll reaches 40,000”, Sky News, 15 August 2024,
7 Ben van der Merwe, “Gaza conflict: Thousands
7 Ben van remain unidentified as death tollremain
reaches 40,000,” Sky News,toll
15 August 2024,
7 Ben vander
https://news.sky.com/story/gaza-conflder Merwe,
Merwe,“Gaza
“Gazaconflict:
conflict:Thousands
Thousands
ict-thousands-remain-unidentifi remainunidentified
unidentifiedas
asdeath
death tollreaches
ed-as-death-toll-reaches-40-000-13197287. reaches40,000,”
40,000,”Sky
SkyNews,
News
https://news.sky.com/story/gaza-conflict-thousands-remain-unidentified-as-death-toll-reaches-40-000-13197287.
https://news.sky.com/story/gaza-conflict-thousands-remain-unidentified-as-death-toll-reaches-40-000-1319728
https://news.sky.com/story/gaza-conflict-thousands-remain-unidentified-as-death-toll-reaches-40-000-1319728
sands remain unidentified as death toll reaches 40,000,” Sky News, 15 August 2024, 9
ousands-remain-unidentified-as-death-toll-reaches-40-000-13197287.
9 9
 Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza
800889917 Male Female
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These errors 958989139

serve to artificially increase the numbers Male of women and children who Female are reported
These errors serve to artificially increase the numbers of women and children who are reported as killed.
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958989139 – which
Such basic errors demonstrate the unreliability of theMale collection methodology – which places Femalea responsibility
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basic errors as unquestioned fact.
the unreliability of the collection methodology – which places a responsibility
These errors serve to artificially increase the numbers of women and children who are reported as killed.
on the world’s media not to report the numbers of men, women and children killed as unquestioned fact.
Such Following
Followingbasic the the
errors collapse
collapse
demonstrate of the
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of Centre’s network
the collection network in November
in November
methodology 2023,
2023,places
– which the athe
Health Health
Ministry
responsibility
These errors serve to artificially increase the numbers of women and children who are reported as killed.
onMinistry
turned to the
the world’s turned tonot
following
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compile
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Following
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demonstrate Information
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methodology 2023,places
– which the Health Ministry
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to report of dataofcollection
the numbers men, women to compile its fatality
and children lists:
killed as unquestioned fact.
Hospital
•Following therecords
collapse of the Health Information Centre’s network in November 2023, the Health Ministry
The to
turned MoH has stated
the following that fatalities
varying methods ofare datarecorded
collectionby name and
to compile number
its fatality through the Health
lists:
Hospital
•Following
Information the records
collapse
Centre. of the Health Information Centre’s network in November 2023, the Health Ministry
The MoH has stated that This registration
fatalities procedure
are recorded by namewas predicated
and number throughon the
theHealth
receipt of identifi
Information ed
Centre.
turned
bodiesto the
at following
hospitals varying
in Gaza. methods
The of
Ministrydata collection
claimed to to
havecompile
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using lists:
this method in northern
This registration
• Hospital procedure was predicated on the receipt of identified bodies at hospitals in Gaza. The
records
The MoH
Gaza – hasthe
in stated that fatalities
Indonesian, Kamalare recordedand by name andhospitals
number through11the Health Information 8
in Centre.
Ministry claimed to have ceased usingAdwan
this methodAl-Shifa
in northern Gaza – –inon November
the Indonesian, 2023, Adwan
Kamal theand
•This registration
Hospital
Al-Aqsa procedure
records
hospital on 20 was predicated
January 2024 on
and the
in receipt
the Nasser of identified
hospital onbodies
13 at hospitals
February 2024. in Gaza. The
Al-Shifa
The MoHhospitals
has stated – that
on 11 November
fatalities 2023,8 inby
are recorded thename
Al-Aqsa hospitalthrough
and number on 20 January 2024
the Health and in the Centre.
Information Nasser
Ministry claimed to have ceased using this method in northern Gaza – in the Indonesian, Kamal Adwan and
hospital on 13 February
This registration procedure2024.was predicated8 on the receipt of identified bodies at hospitals in Gaza. The
Al-Shifa
The MoHhospitals
has stated – that
on 11 November
fatalities 2023, inby
are recorded thename
Al-Aqsa hospitalthrough
and number on 20 January 2024
the Health and in the Centre.
Information Nasser
Ministry claimed to have ceased using this method in northern Gaza – in the Indonesian, Kamal Adwan and
hospital on 13 February
This registration procedure2024.was predicated on the receipt of identified bodies at hospitals in Gaza. The
Al-Shifa hospitals – on 11 November 2023,8 in the Al-Aqsa hospital on 20 January 2024 and in the Nasser
Ministry claimed to have ceased using this method in northern Gaza – in the Indonesian, Kamal Adwan and
hospital on 13 February 2024.
Al-Shifa hospitals – on 11 November 2023,8 in the Al-Aqsa hospital on 20 January 2024 and in the Nasser
hospital on 13 February 2024.

8 Or 12 November 2023. The date changes in the Ministry of Health’s Emergency Reports.
Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza 10
8 Or 12 November 2023. The date changes in the Ministry of Health’s Emergency Reports.
Telegram Post (above, Arabic original;
right, English translation by Google) 9 10
8 Or 12 November 2023. The date changes in the Ministry of Health’s Emergency Reports.
10
8 Or
8 12 12
Or November 2023.
November 2023.The
Thedate
datechanges
changesininthe
theMinistry
Ministry of
of Health’s EmergencyReports.
Health’s Emergency Reports.
9 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 7 January 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/4739.
10

10
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

l Media and Social Media Reports

On 11 December 2023, the MoH stated that as of 11 November 2023, fatalities in northern Gaza
were no longer registered through a hospital information system, but collated via “reliable
media sources”, primarily news sites and TV reports. The Ministry has explicitly relied on such
sources. 10 However, Sky News reported on an interview with Zaher Al Wahaidi, Director of the
Ministry’s Health Information Centre: 11

In the health ministry’s reports, these body counts were attributed to “reliable sources”
– a phrase which has previously been mistranslated as “reliable media sources”. “It’s not
from journalists,” says Mr Al Wahaidi. “We don’t depend on any press sources for data –
this is the policy of the Ministry of Health.”

This statement is explicitly contradicted by the Ministry of Health’s own reporting (see below).
It is extremely concerning that the Director of the Health Information Centre made a false
statement to international media, and that this statement was reported verbatim by Sky News
without question.

The Henry Jackson Society does not know if Zaher Al Wahaidi believes these statements
or is being compelled by Hamas to give them to journalists. Whichever it may be, the result
is a falsehood.

In addition, in February, the MoH spokesman Ashraf al-Qudra also used the term “reliable media
sources” in his interview with the US broadcaster NPR and explicitly talked about “reliance on
public sources of information” 12 which contradicts claims about “mistranslation”. The Ministry
provides no public guidance on what these sources are.

k Comments

- 
The hospital [fatality] numbers (the Indonesian, Kamal Adwan, Al-Shifa)
were approved according to the latest data update before the interruption of
communication through the hospitals’ information system on 11 November 2023 .
- According to reports and information sources , massacres against families were
monitored, so that the increase in the number of martyrs was no less than 4,143
martyrs as of 11 December 2023.

Gaza Ministry of Health Emergency Report, 11 December 2023, page 5 (highlight not in original)

10 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 12 December 2023, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/4576; “Gaza Fatality
Figures Repository”, Palestinian Ministry of Health, 12 December 2023, https://ia601203.us.archive.org/14/items/moh-
ramallah-11-3/MOH%20-%20Gaza%20-%2012-11.pdf; Health Sector Emergency Report, Palestinian Ministry of Health, 1 March
2024, https://ia600208.us.archive.org/23/items/moh-gaza-health-sector-emergency-reports/MOH%20-%20Gaza%20-%20
2-29.pdf; Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 1 March 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5098.
11 van der Merwe, “Gaza conflict: Thousands remain unidentified”.
12 Aya Batrawy, “Gaza’s death toll now exceeds 30,000. Here’s why it’s an incomplete count”, NPR, 29 February 2024,
https://www.npr.org/2024/02/29/1234159514/gaza-death-toll-30000-palestinians-israel-hamas-war.

11
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

Gaza Ministry of Health Emergency Report, 29 February 2024, page 8

Translation of text preceding the table:

✓ Cumulative Report of Martyrs

■ 
The cumulative number of martyrs since the beginning of the aggression reached
30,228 martyrs (17,285 of whom were registered, more than 12,943 martyrs were
recorded according to reliable media sources due to the lack of communication with
hospitals in Gaza and the North).

Translation of text following the table:

■ The hospital [fatality] numbers (the Indonesian, Kamal Adwan, Al-Shifa) were approved
according to the latest data update before the interruption of communication through
the hospitals’ information system on November 12, 2023.
■ 
Al-Aqsa Hospital numbers were approved according to the latest data update before
the interruption of communication through the hospitals’ information system on
January 20, 2024.
■ 
Nasser Medical Hospital numbers were approved according to the latest data update
before the interruption of communication through the hospitals’ information system
on February 13, 2024.
■ These numbers do not include missing persons and bodies trapped under the rubble.

12
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

Despite the Ministry of Health’s explicit use of data from unspecified information sources
for its fatality reports, Hamas’s Government Media Office either exhibits no methodology or
declares the total claimed fatality figure as counting “martyrs who arrived at hospitals”. 13 On
23 March 2024, for example, the Government Media Office repeated this claim. Concurrently,
the MoH stated that 45% of all claimed fatalities were from media sources. 14 As already shown,
the Government Media Office and the MoH often release contradictory figures.
l Public Submission of Information
On 6 January 2024, the MoH published a public Google Form via social media. It called for
online reports of “martyrs” or missing persons. 15 This was one day before the Health Ministry
published its second periodical fatality list, after the first on 26 October 2023. The form was
republished on 5 February 2024, 16 then again during March and has been a daily fixture from 18
April 2024 onwards. 17 Despite this additional data source, it was not mentioned in the fatality
reports until 1 April 2024 (see below). This form was updated for the 31 August 2024 list. 18

Gaza Ministry of Health’s Telegram

post (above), Arabic original;
right, English translation by Google)

Screenshot of Gaza Ministry

of Health’s Public Google Form
(as translated by Google)

13 [Hamas] Government Media Office, Telegram post, 24 March 2024, https://t.me/mediagovps/2598.

14 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 24 March 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5224; “Health Sector
Emergency Report”, Palestinian Ministry of Health, 24 March 2024, https://ia800208.us.archive.org/23/items/moh-gaza-
health-sector-emergency-reports/MOH%20-%20Gaza%20-%203-23.pdf.
15 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 6 January 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/4718.
16 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 5 February 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/4922; Palestinian Ministry
of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 18 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5318.
17 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 18 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5318.
18 “Reporting martyrs and missing persons”, Palestinian Ministry of Health, https://sehatty.ps/moh-registration/public/add-
order, accessed 21 November 2024.

13
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

The form did not include fields for whether the reported fatality was a civilian or a militant
belonging to Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad or another armed group engaged in hostilities, nor
for the circumstances of the reported death (either as the result of IDF action or otherwise). 19
It also requires no proof of death, allowing families to report missing relatives as dead.
l Incomplete Data and Family Reporting
On 1 April 2024, 20 the MoH changed the way it reported fatality data sources. It began
distinguishing between ‘complete’ and ‘incomplete’ data, depending on whether the record
included their ID number, full name, sex and date of birth.
This ‘incomplete’ data is reportedly reviewed by a judicial committee before being added to
the fatality lists. In the August 2024 list, there are only 1,910 entries marked as approved by a
decision of the judicial committee, as opposed to 9,817 marked simply as ‘family notification’.
This distinction makes it unclear whether the latter have been approved by the judicial
committee. If we interpret that those marked simply as ‘family notification’ have not been
reviewed by the judicial committee, then as of November 2024, most of them still do not
appear to have been reviewed.
The judiciary in Gaza is run by Hamas, and this has brought its credibility and impartiality into
question. 21 Human Rights Watch, a non-governmental organisation, has repeatedly criticised
the bias of the judiciary in Gaza and has detailed the extensive links of judges to Hamas
militants. 22 The screenshots and translation below show the MoH explanation:

Translation:

■ 
Martyrs with complete information are martyrs listed in the records of the Ministry of
Health who have been registered through the medical staff directly, or by reporting of
the families of the martyrs.
■ Martyrs do not have complete data that includes (identity number, full name, sex, date

of birth, date of martyrdom), lacking any of this data is considered incomplete data.
■ These numbers of martyrs are directly related to injuries resulting from direct attacks

of war and does not include natural deaths.

■ These numbers do not include missing persons and bodies trapped under the rubble.

Gaza Ministry of Health Emergency Report, 1 April 2024, page 7

19 “Martyrs and Missing Persons Reporting Form”, Palestinian Ministry of Health, https://web.archive.org/web/202405
02144035/https:/docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScndnMojIJoflfSPTD25uqkZSzUH--G05AMwcbbyJB42bNQcw/
viewform, accessed 2 May 2024.
20 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 3 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5258; “Health Sector
Emergency Report”.
21 van der Merwe, “Gaza conflict: Thousands remain unidentified”.
22 “Abusive System: Failures of Criminal Justice in Gaza”, Human Rights Watch, 3 October 2012, https://www.hrw.org/
report/2012/10/03/abusive-system/failures-criminal-justice-gaza.

14
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

In many entries in the list that supposedly contained only “martyrs with complete data”, some
data was missing or invalid. None of the published lists included the date of deaths, which by
the Ministry of Health’s own definition would render all of the data ‘incomplete’.

The demographic breakdown of family reports vs Ministry of Health records

One of the key questions discussed in this report is the reliability of the claims about demographic
breakdown of the fatalities data, in particular, the percentage of women and children. Many of
the more recent claims regarding those figures are based on the named fatality lists.

However, analysis of those lists reveals another major anomaly that raises serious questions
about the reliability of those claims.

The most recent list, published in September 2024, contains 34,344 names and every entry
states the channel through which the name was recorded:
l Ministry of Health records account for 27,445 names (80% of the list)
l Public reports by family members – 5,480 names (16% of the list)
l Reports approved by the ‘judicial committee’ – 1,103 names (3% of the list)
l ‘House committee’ – we were unable to find any information about the nature of this
source, but in any case, it accounts for only 316 names – less than 1% of the list.

In his recent Sky interview, Zaher Al Wahaidi, Director of the Health Information Centre, claimed
that for a death to be confirmed, it needs to be approved by a judicial committee. 23 And yet,
as this list shows, 5,480 out of 6,583 of those family reports appear to have been included in
the list ‘as is’, without being examined by the judicial committee.

If we examine the data coming from each of those channels, we may see that there are dramatic
differences in their demographic breakdown.

In particular, men accounted for 62% of the family reports vs 42% in MoH records, while children
(i.e. anyone under 18) accounted for 22% of family reports vs 35% in MoH records (see Figure 1).

Could those dramatic differences be explained by what is known as ‘selection bias’, making
deaths of men more likely to be reported by their relatives? In fact, this is exactly what Zaher
Al Wahaidi claimed in another Sky News interview in April, when he said that the family
notification system is mainly used by widows, who must formally register their husbands’
deaths to obtain government assistance. 24

However, we can test this claim against the data that is available. At the beginning of 2024,
when the family reporting system was introduced, the MoH was occasionally publishing
updates about hospital-recorded deaths. If we compare the demographic breakdown of the
family reports submitted in the first three months of 2024 with the breakdown of new hospital-
registered deaths, the results are very similar/almost identical (see Figure 2).

In other words, the high percentage of men among the reported fatalities is not a result of a
selection bias, but a reflection of the actual percentage of men among those who were killed
during that period. However, in the first week of April 2024, the data published by the MoH
underwent a series of drastic ‘adjustments’ that led to an increasing divergence between the
demographic breakdown of family reports and the remaining data.

23 van der Merwe, “Gaza conflict: Thousands remain unidentified”.

24 Ben van der Merwe, “Israel-Hamas war: Gaza’s morgue network has effectively collapsed – how are they recording their
dead?”, Sky News, 4 April 2024, https://news.sky.com/story/israel-hamas-war-health-system-collapse-in-gaza-leaves-
authorities-struggling-to-count-the-dead-13107279.

15
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

Figure 1: Demographic breakdown of different fatality record sources

100%

Children
Children
Children 22%
28%
35%
75%
Women
16% Women
19%
Women
50% 23%

Men
62% Men
25%
Men 53%
42%

0%
Hospital registered Family notification Judicial Committee

Source: HJS analysis of August 2024 fatality list

Figure 2: Demographic breakdown of fatality record sources (January-March 2024)

100%

Children Children
21% 23%

75%
Women Women
21% 17%

50%

Men Men
25% 58% 60%

10%
Hospital registered Family notification

Source: HJS analysis of August 2024 fatality list

16
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

The most dramatic change happened in reports from al-Aqsa hospital, where the claimed
number of fatalities jumped from 4,994, as per the 31 March 2024 report, to 6,608 just a week
later. At the same time, the number of children jumped from 1,294 to 2,142, meaning children
were responsible for 52.5% of the sharp increase. 25

In addition, there are major inconsistencies between the reports about hospital-recorded
deaths and the ‘Ministry of Health records’ section of the fatality list released on 3 April 2024,
which raises the question as to the real source of those ‘records’.

As a result, from April 2024, the demographic composition of fatality reports coming from
‘Ministry of Health records’ changed dramatically, while the demographics of the family
notification reports remained virtually the same as before (see Figure 3).

Figure 3: Demographic breakdown of death record sources (April-August 2024)

100%

Children
Children
Children 22%
28%
37%
75%
Women
14%
Women
19%
Women
50% 18%

Men
64% Men
25% Men 53%
45%

0%
Hospital registered Family notification Judicial Committee

Source: HJS analysis of August 2024 fatality list

Together, these anomalies provide a strong indication that at least some aspects of the ‘Ministry
of Health records’ are distorted, and the actual demographic breakdown of the fatalities data
is much closer to that of the family reports – that is, around 60% men, 16% women and 24%
children – at least during the period starting from January 2024, when the family report
submissions began.

25 Gaza Ministry of Health Emergency Report, 31 March 2024.

17
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

2. Statistical Concerns

A series of statistical anomalies in the first few months of the war appear to show an over-
representation of women and children in the fatality figures from the Gaza Ministry of Health:
l On 19 October 2023, the MoH reported that there had been 3,785 cumulative fatalities
in Gaza, 26 compared to 3,000 two days prior, 27 a 785 increase. But the cumulative
number of children reported killed increased by 671 on the same day, from 853 to
1,524 – meaning that the percentage of total deaths comprised of minors jumped
from 28% to 40% in a two-day period. 28
l Similarly, on 26 October 2023, the MoH reported 7,028 cumulative fatalities 29 versus
6,547 the prior day, 30 an increase of 481. But the number of newly reported women
and children killed increased by 626 (417 women and 209 children) on the same day,
which was more than the increase in total fatalities.
l On 29 October 2023, the MoH reported 8,005 cumulative fatalities 31 versus 7,703
the prior day, 32 an increase of 302. But the number of women and children reported
killed increased by 328 (199 women and 129 children) on the same day – again, more
than the increase in total fatalities.
l On 31 October 2023, the MoH reported 8,525 cumulative fatalities 33 versus 8,309 the
prior day, 34 an increase of 216. The number of women and children reported killed
increased by 210 on the same day – which would imply that 97% of the people who
died that day were women and children.
l On 7 November 2023, the MoH reported 10,328 cumulative fatalities 35 versus 10,022
the prior day, an increase of 306. 36 The number of women and children reported
killed increased by 302, which would represent 99% of the increase.
l 
On 5 December 2023, the MoH reported 16,248 cumulative fatalities 37 which,
compared to 15,207 reported three days earlier, on 2 December 2023, 38 shows an

26 “Hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Israel | Flash Update #13”, UN OCHA, 19 October 2023, https://www.ochaopt.org/content/
hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-flash-update-13.
27 “Hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Israel | Flash Update #11”, UN OCHA, 17 October 2023, https://www.ochaopt.org/content/
hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-flash-update-11.
28 Note: the 18 October 2023 update did not include an updated figure for children.
29 “Hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Israel | Flash Update #20”, UN OCHA, 26 October 2023, https://www.ochaopt.org/content/
hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-flash-update-20.
30 “Hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Israel | Flash Update #19”, UN OCHA, 25 October 2023, https://www.ochaopt.org/content/
hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-flash-update-19.
31 “Hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Israel | Flash Update #23”, UN OCHA, 29 October 2023, https://www.ochaopt.org/content/
hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-flash-update-23.
32 “Hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Israel | Flash Update #22”, UN OCHA, 28 October 2023, https://www.ochaopt.org/content/
hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-flash-update-22.
33 “Hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Israel | Flash Update #25”, UN OCHA, 31 October 2023, https://www.ochaopt.org/content/
hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-flash-update-25.
34 “Hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Israel | Flash Update #24”, UN OCHA, 30 October 2023, https://www.ochaopt.org/content/
hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-flash-update-24.
35 “Hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Israel – reported impact | Day 32”, UN OCHA, 7 November 2023, https://www.ochaopt.org/
content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-32.
36 “Hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Israel – reported impact | Day 31”, UN OCHA, 6 November 2023, https://www.ochaopt.org/
content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-31.
37 “Hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Israel – reported impact | Day 60”, UN OCHA, 5 December 2023, https://www.ochaopt.org/
content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-60.
38 “Hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Israel – reported impact | Day 57”, UN OCHA, 2 December 2023, https://www.ochaopt.org/
content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-57.

18
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

increase of 1,041. But the number of newly reported women and children killed was
reported to have increased by 1,353 over the same time period (628 women and 725
children). Taken at face value, these figures would suggest the number of men killed
in Gaza actually declined over those days, despite heavy combat action in Gaza.
On the face of it, these statistical releases appear to be inconsistent and implausible. There
may be a reasonable explanation for these anomalies – for example, it may be that there is a
time lag between different aspects of the reporting – but such an explanation has not been
forthcoming. It is also possible that these figures have been manipulated to over-report the
number of women and children.
The table below shows the steady increase in the proportion of women and children killed,
per the Health Ministry’s reports, reaching an implausibly high 74% by 5 December 2023. If
accepted as correct, and that males made up 26% of fatalities, this would imply that few, if any,
persons killed in Gaza were combatants.

Women & Children Children Only

Ministry of Health reports % of total killed % of total killed

Reported 18 Oct 23 Women not reported 24.5%

Reported 21 Oct 23 62.0% 40.0%
Reported 26 Oct 23 65.8% 41.5%
Overall November 67-68% 40-41%
Reported 2 Dec 23 68.6% 42.0%
Reported 5 Dec 23 73.8% 43.8%

No evidence has been produced to show that the IDF has deliberately targeted civilians, which
is what casualty outcomes of the type generated by the Ministry imply was happening. In fact,
if the figures are taken on face value, they would suggest the IDF was actively choosing to
prioritise the killing of civilians rather than armed combatants. That the IDF is in combat with
militant groups is unquestionable: up to 27 October 2024, 368 IDF soldiers were listed as killed
in action, with a further 2,394 listed as wounded since the start of ground operations. 39

Demographics
Age and Sex Distribution
According to the Ministry’s fatality lists, as opposed to their headline reports, men have been
killed in higher rates than women. As a percentage of the total fatalities, men have been
killed at significantly higher rates. There is a significant spike in the rate of male deaths (as a
percentage of Gaza’s total population) between the ages of 15 and 40 (see Figure 4 below).
This is in line with the expected ages of combatants, suggesting that Israel has targeted Hamas
fighters, not civilians.

The death rate of women is almost completely static at around 0.4% between the ages of
0 and 60, and well below the comparative levels for men. The death rates for children are well
below that of any other age group. This is concrete evidence that neither of these demographic
groups have been targeted.

39 “Swords of Iron: IDF Casualties”, Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, accessed 5 November 2024, https://www.gov.il/en/pages/
swords-of-iron-idf-casualties.

19
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

Figure 4: Population Pyramid of Fatalities by Age and Sex

100

■ Male
■ Female
80

60

40

20

-600 -400 -200 0 200 400

Population Count

Source: Ministry of Health Fatality List, 31 August 2024 and Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics

Figure 5: Fatality rate as a proportion of population by age and sex

1.3%

1.0%

0.7%

0.3%

– Male
– Female
0.0%
4

-14

-19

24

29

4
-7

-7
-4

-6
-3

-5
5-
0-

-3

-4

-5

-6

-8
-

-
15
10

70

75
20

25

35

55
30

50

65

80
45

60
40

Age

Source: Ministry of Health Fatality List, 31 August 2024 and Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics

20
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

Figure 6: Fatalities by age and sex as proportion of total fatalities

8.0%

– Male fatalities as % of total fatalities

– Femaleasfatalities
Males % of population
– Females as % of population
as % of total fatalities
6.0%
–

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90-94 100+
Age

Source: Ministry of Health Fatality List, 31 August 2024 and Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics

Hospital Records vs Family Reports

As discussed, the Gazan Health Ministry fatality lists offer two sources of death reporting:
hospital reporting and family notification. There is a clear spike in the number of family-
reported deaths in the total population of male fatalities (see chart below).

The deaths recorded from family reports in the July 2024 list show a significant spike in the
male category between the ages of 15 and 50.

The nature of warfare that uses explosive munitions suggests that bodies will be more
challenging to recover where they are trapped under buildings turned to rubble by air strikes.
It is therefore logical that these bodies will not have been seen and recorded by the MoH at
hospitals and are instead recorded as missing by families using the online reporting form.

In all recent conflicts in Gaza, documented Hamas tactics are to use buildings and tunnels as
cover from IDF fire. 40 It is therefore also logical to suggest that this statistically significant
spike of men reported killed by families could be Hamas fighters whose bodies are buried in
rubble after air strikes.

There is a clear spike in deaths of ‘fighting age’ men aged 25 to 40 reported by families, in
comparison with any other age group. There also appear to be disproportionate numbers of
child and women deaths registered in hospital records, compared to the family reports.

40 James Pamment, et al., “Hybrid Threats: Hamas’ use of human shields in Gaza”, NATO Strategic Communications Centre of
Excellence, 6 June 2019, p.148, https://stratcomcoe.org/publications/hybrid-threats-hamas-use-of-human-shields-in-gaza/87.

21
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

Figure 7: Fatality rate of hospital records (as a proportion of population by age and sex)

1.0%

– Hospital records – Male

– Hospital records – Female
Hospital Records death rate

0.8%

0.5%

0.3%

0.0%
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84
Age

Source: Ministry of Health Fatality List, 31 August 2024 and Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics

Figure 8: Fatality rate of family reports (as a proportion of population by age and sex)

0.4%

– Family Reported – Male

– Family Reported – Female
Family Reported death rate

0.3%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Age

Source: Ministry of Health Fatality List, 31 August 2024 and Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics

22
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

Figure 9: Fatalities by source, age and sex (as proportion of each source)

12.0%

– Male fatalities as % of Hospital Records

– Male fatalities
Female fatalities as % of Hospital Records
– Female fatalitiesas as% of% Family Reports
9.0%
– Males as % of population Reports
of Family
– Females as % of population
–
6.0%

3.0%

0.0%
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90-94 100+
Age

Source: Ministry of Health Fatality List, 31 August 2024 and Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics

Age Variation
Several people were wrongly recorded as children and reported as such in the monthly reports
by the MoH and therefore also by international media.

In addition, there has been a pattern of ages being revised downwards by one year. As
identified earlier, this puts a number of listed ages at odds with ages recorded in the Palestinian
Population Register.

A comparison of the first 1,000 names in the October 2023 and July 2024 lists revealed several
inconsistencies in the data, including eight people disappearing between lists, a duplicate on
the October list and, most pertinently, over 100 people whose ages had been reduced by one
year between the October and July lists.

Fatality figures for children play a prominent part in reporting of this war, but a pattern of age
inconsistencies between lists casts significant doubt on these numbers. To test whether these
figures, regularly quoted by the media, were reliable, we examined every fatality listed at 18
years old in the August 2024 list and compared the entry to entries in the October 2023 and
February 2024 lists.

In the October 2023 list, there were 117 people listed at 18 years old. Of these, 25 were listed
as aged 17 in the August 2024 list. This is 21.4%. An even more dramatic statistic comes from
repeating the process with the February 2024 list, compared with August 2024. There were
265 names listed as 18 years old in the February list. Of these, 144 were listed as 17 years old
in the August list. This is approximately 54.3%.

23
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

The Ministry of Health’s 30 April list had 406 fatalities aged 19, male and female. 284 of these
19-year-olds, or 70%, were listed as 18 in the 30 June list (sample of five shown below).

The records of deaths of 18-year-olds were also altered. In the reporting, 305 of 311 aged 18 on
30 April became younger, down to age 17, for the 30 June list (sample below).

In the most charitable interpretation of this data, these names were incorrectly labelled as
18-year-olds in the previous lists and reverted to their true ages in the August list. However,
even if this is true, it means that the data in those previous lists released by the MoH was highly
inaccurate and should never have been used uncritically by media outlets. It casts significant
doubt on the reliability of current and future MoH lists.

Less charitably, this data could be interpreted as incorrectly inflating the number of 17-year-
olds in official statistics, which would have the knock-on effect of inflating the number of
children reported killed. This would benefit the anti-Israel messaging of Hamas and other
groups. Either way, the fact that major media outlets reported these demonstrably inconsistent
numbers without any question is highly concerning.

24
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza
3. Deaths Unrelated to IDF Action

3. Deaths Unrelated to IDF Action

Hamas-Related Deaths

Since the start of the war, the IDF has reported numerous incidents of accidental or purposefu
Hamas-Related Deaths booby-trapped houses in Gaza. There are reports of secondary explosions from IDF attac
objectives
Since the start of the war, the IDF that were
has not known
reported to contain
numerous rockets or
incidents of other explosive
accidental materials at the time of a
or purposeful
evidencehouses
detonation of booby-trapped of accidental or purposeful
in Gaza. There aredetonation
reports of ofsecondary
mines laid under roads. Hamas
explosions from itself has s
deliberate direct and indirect fire (such as anti-tank or mortar
IDF attacks on military objectives that were not known to contain rockets or other explosive fire) aimed at IDF forces in urba
materials at the time ofGaza.
attack. There is evidence of accidental or purposeful detonation of
mines laid under roads. Hamas itself has shared video of deliberate direct and indirect fire
The published
(such as anti-tank or mortar fatality
fire) aimed lists forces
at IDF do not indistinguish
urban areasfatalities
withinthat are the result of such actions
Gaza.
identify those killed by Hamas to prevent evacuation from areas in which the IDF has c
The published fatality lists do not41 distinguish fatalities that are the result of such actions. They do
evacuation, or those killed by Hamas or other militants during aid distribution.42
not identify those killed by Hamas to prevent evacuation from areas in which the IDF has called
for such evacuation, 41 or those killed by Hamas or other militants during aid distribution. 42
The lists do not identify those who have died of causes other than those directly related to hos
The lists do not identify thoseorwho
accidents haveactivity.
criminal died of causesofother
Incidents than
injuries andthose directly related
death occurring due to criminal activ
to hostilities, such as accidents
violence between clans) and accidents have been publicly reported; occurring
or criminal activity. Incidents of injuries and death for example, dozens o
due to criminal activity (including
reportedly violence
crushed and between
trampled to clans)
deathand accidents
during have
a riot that beenfollowing
erupted publicly the entry of
reported; for example,February
dozens2024. of Gazans
43 In the aftermath of an attack on a Palestinian activistdeath
were reportedly crushed and trampled to by a “masked m
43
during a riot that erupted following the entry of aid trucks in February 2024. In the aftermath
opposition party accused Gaza authorities of allowing “criminality” to spread within its border
of an attack on a Palestinian activist by a “masked man”, the Fatah opposition party accused
Gaza authorities of allowing “criminality” to spread within its borders. 44
The MoH reports include those known to have died by means other than claimed “Israeli aggre
The MoH reports include those known to have died by means other than claimed “Israeli
aggression”. One example, Ahmed
One example, Shaddad
Ahmed Shaddad Halmy Brikeh ((‫اﺣـــﻤﺪ ﺷـــﺪاد ﺣـــﻠﻤﻲ ﺑـــﺮﯾـــﻜﮫ‬,, identity
HalmyBrikeh identitynumber 42418
number 424185668), age 13, appears
appears in the
in the August August
fatality list fatality list on 10,869.
on row number row number 10,869.

Mr Brika was reported as having been shot dead by Hamas during his attempt to obtain food
for himself and his family from a humanitarian aid shipment on 24 December 2023. 45 This is
Mr Brika
supported by social media was(below),
posts reported since
as having been shot dead by Hamas during his attempt to obtain food fo
deleted.
his family from a humanitarian aid shipment on 24 December 2023.45 This is supported by soc
posts (below), since deleted.

41 “Hamas Terrorists Continue to Prevent Civilian Evacuation in Gaza,” IDF, 26 October 2023, https://www.id
idf-press-releases-israel-at-war/october-23-pr/hamas-terrorists-continue-to-prevent-civilian-evacuation/.
42 Israel Defense Forces (@IDF), X post, 15 March 2024, 11:11 am, https://x.com/IDF/status/1768595849385279
43 “Dozens of Gaza civilians reportedly killed during aid riot,” Jewish News Syndicate, 29 February 2024, http
One example of a report concerning Mr Brikeh’s death on X (original and Google translation)
dozens-of-gazans-reportedly-killed-during-aid-riot/.

toTom
41 “Hamas Terrorists Continue44 Bennett,
Prevent “Hamas
Civilian critic beaten
Evacuation byIDF,
in Gaza”, masked men in 2023,
26 October Gaza,”https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/
BBC News, 9 July 2024, https://www.bbc.co.uk/
cx82xx9pj5do.
idf-press-releases-israel-at-war/october-23-pr/hamas-terrorists-continue-to-prevent-civilian-evacuation/.
42 Israel Defense Forces (@IDF), X post, 15 March 2024, 11:11 am, https://x.com/IDF/status/1768595849385279673.
45 “Israel, Hamas don’t jump at Egypt’s plan to end their war,” Politico, 25 December 2023, https://www.politico
43 “Dozens of Gaza civilians reportedly killed during aid riot”, Jewish News Syndicate, 29 February 2024, https://www.jns.org/
2023/12/25/israel-hamas-egypt-gaza-plan-00133179; “The martyr Ahmed Shaddad Helmy Brika,” Genocide in
dozens-of-gazans-reportedly-killed-during-aid-riot/.
44 Tom Bennett, “Hamas criticDecember 2023, https://genopal.net/ar/martyrs/show/9821.
beaten by masked men in Gaza”, BBC News, 9 July 2024, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/
cx82xx9pj5do.
45 “Israel, Hamas don’t jump at Egypt’s plan to end their war”, Politico, 25 December 2023, https://www.politico.com/
news/2023/12/25/israel-hamas-egypt-gaza-plan-00133179; “The martyr Ahmed Shaddad Helmy Brika”, Genocide in
Palestine, 24 December 2023, https://genopal.net/ar/martyrs/show/9821.

25
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

Failed Rocket Launches

Israel has identified thousands of failed rocket launches from inside Gaza, many of which
have landed directly inside populated areas in Gaza, causing untold harm. One of the most
prominent examples is the Al-Ahli Hospital incident, when on 17 October 2023, a rocket fired
by Palestinian Islamic Jihad landed in the Al-Ahli Hospital complex. 46 The true number of
fatalities from this incident is unknown. The MoH stated that the blast caused 471 fatalities,
however this figure has been widely contested, and Western intelligence agencies including
France and the United States have indicated that fatalities from the misfired rocket were far
lower than 471. 47
Research regarding rocket fire from Gaza has shown that 10 to 20% of these rockets fall
inside Gaza itself, never reaching Israeli territory. 48 With over 9,000 rockets fired at Israel from
Gaza since 7 October 2023, 49 our analysis suggests that over 1,000 rockets have fallen inside
Gaza. Even with areas evacuated, it is certain that these will have caused Gazan fatalities.
The IDF estimated that from the start of the conflict up to July 2024, 1,750 fired rockets
fell short within the Gaza Strip, representing 13% of all Hamas rockets fired at Israel since
7 October 2023. 50
In 2021, there were also verified fatalities from misfired Palestinian rockets. 51 There is no way
in the current ongoing conflict to verify how many and which fatalities listed by the MoH were
caused by non-IDF action such as errant rockets. However, it is certain to be a significant
number given the number of rockets fired at Israel by Hamas and other groups, the known
failure rate and the documented example at the Al-Ahli Hospital.

Natural Deaths
To best understand the total death toll and its real impact on the population in Gaza, it is useful
to examine the usual death rates during normal times, prior to the war, in order to estimate
what would be expected if the war had not been happening.
According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, there were 5,225 natural deaths in
Gaza in 2018, 5,014 in 2019, 5,552 in 2020 and 6,807 in 2021. If we allow for the impact of the
pandemic, and generously use the lowest of those figures, you could average out an annual
total of 5,014 natural deaths to a monthly expected natural death toll of 418 people.
It is therefore estimated that since 7 October 2023, there have been over 5,000 natural deaths
in Gaza, unrelated to any direct aspect of the war. The MoH has not issued any information
regarding natural deaths in Gaza and has not issued a separate list of deaths in Gaza due to
natural causes. But there is evidence that deaths from natural causes have been included in
the civilian war fatality data – having the effect of inflating the overall figures.

46 “US has ‘high confidence’ Palestinian rocket caused Gaza hospital blast – official”, Reuters, 25 October 2023,
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-has-high-confidence-palestinian-rocket-caused-gaza-hospital-blast-
official-2023-10-25/; Julian E. Barnes and David E. Sanger, “U.S. Cites ‘High Confidence’ That Palestinian Rocket Caused
Hospital Blast”, The New York Times, 24 October 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/24/us/politics/intel-rocket-gaza-
hospital-blast.html; Divya Rajagopal and Jose Joseph, “Israel did not strike Gaza hospital, Canada says”, Reuters, 22 October
2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-did-not-strike-gaza-hospital-canada-says-2023-10-22/.
47 John Leicester, “French intelligence points to Palestinian rocket, not Israeli airstrike, for Gaza hospital blast”, AP, 20 October
2023, https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-france-intelligence-7be0d59b9ceb58bbf2f03c5dc8222356.
48 Nadav Gavrielov, “Hamas and Other Militant Groups Are Firing Rockets Into Israel Every Day”, The New York Times,
27 December 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/27/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-gaza-rockets.html.
49 “Rocketfire”, IDF, 6 April 2024, https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/idf-press-releases-israel-at-war/april-24-press-releases/war-
against-hamas-6-months-operational-update/rocketfire/.
50 Author’s interview with MG Finkelman, IDF Commander of Southern Command, July 2024.
51 “Hamas rocket fire a war crime, Human Rights Watch says”, BBC News, 12 August 2021, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-
middle-east-58183968.

26
 Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

The Hamas Government has stated when issuing fatality reports that fatalities are directly from
war-related activities and not natural deaths. 52 However, the Government has not provided any
separate data regarding natural deaths in the last year that could have dispelled any possibility
Thethey
that MoHhave regularly
been issues
used to lists
inflof patients
ate who have
war fatality been approved
numbers. The number to travel outside the
of expected Gaza Strip for
natural
medical
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would
MoH regularly issuesThere
reduce are
theofnumber
lists several
patients of
whoexamples
claimed ofapproved
cancer
identifi
have been patients
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ed fatalities, whichwere
outside as listed
the of as requiring
10 Strip
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for treatment
The these
MoH
2024
medical lists, at
stood
treatment.lists
regularly which
issues
44,786.
There are
53were
lists
severalissued
of patients weeks
who
examples of after
have they
been
cancer hadwho
approved
patients already
to wereappeared
travel outside
listed on Gaza
the the Ministry’s
as requiring Strip lists of war
for on
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theseMoH
medical regularly
treatment.
fatalities.
lists, lists which issues
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several
issued examples
weeks who they
after have
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had approved
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already who to were
appeared travel outside
onlisted
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as requiring
Ministry’s Strip for on
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MoH regularly
Patients issues lists
recordedof patients as whoWar haveFatalities
been approved to travel outside the Gaza Strip for
The
these MoH
medicallists, regularly
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lists which issues
Therewere lists
are issuedof
several patients
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had approved
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already who to
appeared travel
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requiring
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fatalities.
medical Thetreatment.
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regularly are
issuesseveral
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of patients of
who cancer
have patients
been who
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travel as requiring
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issued examples
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onnumber
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these
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lists,
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Health April fatality
Ministry’s list fatality
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‫اﺳﻢ‬
‫اﺳﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺴ‬ ‫اﻻﺟﺮاء‬+ ‫اﻟﺘﺸﺨﯿﺺ‬ ‫اﻟﺠﻨ‬ ‫اﻟﺮﻗ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺸﻔ‬
‫رﻗﻢ اﻟﺠﻮال‬ ‫ھﻮﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺮاﻓﻖ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺮاﻓ‬ ‫رﻗﻢ اﻟﺠﻮال‬ ‫اﻟﮭﻮﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻤﺮ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﻢ‬
‫ ن‬Entry Entry
‫اﻟﻌﻨﻮا‬
‫اﻟﻌﻨﻮا‬ in the Health
‫اﻟﻘﺴ‬
‫ﻢ‬ Ministry’s 30‫اﻻﺟﺮاء‬+
April fatality
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب‬‫اﻟﺘﺸﺨﯿﺺ‬ list list
‫اﻟﻄﺒﻲ‬fatality ‫ﺲ‬‫اﻟﺠﻨ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺸﻔ‬
‫ﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺮﻗ ﻢ‬
‫رﻗﻢ اﻟﺠﻮال‬
‫اﻟﺠﻮال‬ ‫رﻗﻢ‬ ‫ھﻮﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺮاﻓﻖ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺮاﻓﻖ‬ ‫ھﻮﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺮاﻓ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺮاﻓ‬
‫اﺳﻢ‬ ‫ﻖ‬ ‫ رﻗﻢ اﻟﺠﻮال‬in the Health
‫اﻟﮭﻮﯾﺔ‬Ministry’s
‫رﻗﻢ‬ 30 April ‫اﻟﻌﻤﺮ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﻢ‬
‫ﻖ‬ ‫نن‬
‫اﻟﻌﻨﻮا‬ ‫ﻢ‬
‫اﻟﻘﺴ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺸﺨﯿﺺاﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب‬
‫اﻻﺟﺮاء‬+ ‫اﻟﻄﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﺲ‬
‫اﻟﺠﻨ‬ ‫ﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺸﻔ‬ ‫ﻢ‬
‫اﻟﺮﻗ‬
‫رﻗﻢ اﻟﺠﻮال‬ ‫ھﻮﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺮاﻓﻖ‬ ‫ﺳﺤﺮﻖ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺮاﻓ‬ ‫رﻗﻢ اﻟﺠﻮال‬ ‫رﻗﻢ اﻟﮭﻮﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻤﺮ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﻢ‬
‫اﺳﻢ‬ ‫ن‬‫اﺳﻢ‬ ‫ﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب‬ ‫اﻟﻄﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﺲ‬ ‫ﯾﻮﺳﻒ‬ ‫ﻰ‬ ‫ﻢ‬
‫ﻖ‬
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‫اﻟﺠﻮال‬ ‫رﻗﻢ‬
59301187 ‫ھﻮﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺮاﻓﻖ‬ ‫ﺻﺒﺤﻲ‬
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97637268
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‫اﻻﺟﺮاء‬+ ‫اﻻﺟﺮاء‬+
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‫اﻟﻌﻤﺮ‬
09/03/196 ‫اﻟﺠﻨ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﻢ‬
‫ﯾﻮﺳﻒ‬
‫ﯾﻮﺳﻒ‬
‫اﻟﺠﻨ‬ ‫اﻟﺮﻗ اﻟﺮﻗاﻟﻤﺴﺘﺸﻔاﻟﺠﻨ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺸﻔ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺸﻔ‬
‫اﻟﺠﻮال‬
‫رﻗﻢ اﻟﺠﻮال‬ ‫رﻗﻢ‬
8 ‫اﻟﻤﺮاﻓﻖاﻟﺠﻮال‬
‫رﻗﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺮاﻓﻖ‬
410160485
‫ھﻮﯾﺔ‬ ‫ھﻮﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﻤﺮاﻓ ﺳﻠﯿﻤﺎ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺮاﻓ‬ ‫ن‬
‫اﻟﻤﺮاﻓ ن أﺑﻮﻖ‬
‫ھﻮﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺮاﻓﻖ‬ ‫اﻟﺠﻮالاﻟﺠﻮال‬
593011878/
‫رﻗﻢ اﻟﺠﻮال‬ ‫اﻟﮭﻮﯾﺔ رﻗﻢ ﻢﻢرﻗﻢ‬ ‫رﻗﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﮭﻮﯾﺔ‬
lobe
‫رﻗﻢ اﻟﮭﻮﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻄﺒﻲ رﻗﻢ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب‬
carcinoma, ‫اﻟﻌﻤﺮ‬ ‫ﺲذﻛﺮ اﻟﻌﻤﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻤﺮ‬
‫ﻣﺒﺮوك‬
‫اﻻﺳﻢ‬
‫ﺲ اﻻﺳﻢ ﻣﺤﻤﺪ‬
‫ ﻰ‬22 ‫اﻻﺳﻢ‬ ‫ﻢ‬
59301187
‫ﺻﺒﺤﻲ‬
‫ﺻﺒﺤﻲ‬
‫ﺳﺤﺮ‬
‫ﻖ‬
‫ﻖن‬ ‫ن ن‬ ‫ ﻢ‬0 ‫ﻢ‬
97637268
Right
Right
liver lung
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب‬
lung upper
‫اﻟﻄﺒﻲ‬
upper
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب‬
metastases. ‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب‬
‫اﻟﻄﺒﻲ‬ 6‫اﻟﻄﺒﻲ‬
09/03/196 ‫أﺑﻮﺲ ﺲ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﻤﺪ‬
‫ﯾﻮﺳﻒ‬ ‫ﻢ ﻢ ﻰ ﻰ‬ ‫ﻰ‬
59301187 410160485 ‫ﺳﻠﯿﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺧﻮﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﻖ‬ 593011878/ 97637268 lobe carcinoma, 09/03/196 ‫ذﻛﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺮوك‬ 22
8 410160485 ‫ﺻﺒﺤﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﯿﻤﺎ‬ 593011878/ 0 lobe carcinoma,
Right lung upper 6 ‫ﺧﻮﺻﺔ ذﻛﺮ‬‫ﻣﺒﺮوك‬
‫ﻣﺤﻤﺪ‬ 22
8
59301187 ‫ﺳﺤﺮ‬
‫ن أﺑﻮ‬ 0
97637268 liver metastases. 6
09/03/196 ‫ﯾﻮﺳﻒ‬
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410160485Entry ‫أﺑﻮ‬
‫ﺳﻠﯿﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺳﺤﺮ‬ ‫ ن‬the
in ‫ﺳﺤﺮ‬
‫ﺳﺤﺮ‬ 593011878/
Health Ministry’s 17 April list for liver
lobe
medical metastases.
carcinoma,
treatment out of the Gaza ‫ذﻛﺮ‬
Strip ‫ﯾﻮﺳﻒ أﺑﻮ‬
‫ﻣﺒﺮوك‬
‫ﯾﻮﺳﻒ‬ 22
‫ﯾﻮﺳﻒ‬
8 Entry in the ‫ﺻﺒﺤﻲ‬
‫ﺧﻮﺻﺔ‬ 0 medical lung upper out 6of the Gaza ‫ﻣﺤﻤﺪ‬
Right treatment ‫ﺧﻮﺻﺔ‬
59301187
410160485 ‫أﺑﻮ‬Health
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‫ﺻﺒﺤﻲ‬
‫ﺳﻠﯿﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺻﺒﺤﻲ ن‬‫ﺻﺒﺤﻲ‬
Ministry’s 17 April list
593011878/
for
97637268 liver
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lobe metastases.
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‫ﻣﺤﻤﺪ‬
‫ﻣﺒﺮوك‬ 22‫ﻣﺤﻤﺪ‬
59301187 59301187
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‫ﺳﻠﯿﻤﺎ‬ ‫ ﺳﻠﯿﻤﺎ‬Ministry’s
Health 593011878/
593011878/
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treatment lobeout carcinoma,
of the Gaza Strip‫ﺧﻮﺻﺔذﻛﺮ‬
‫ذﻛﺮ ﻣﺒﺮوك أﺑﻮ‬
‫ﻣﺒﺮوك‬ 22 22
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‫ﺧﻮﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺻﺔﺧﻮﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺻﺔ‬
53 “Hostilities in theEntry
Gaza in theand
Strip Health Ministry’s
Israel 17Impact
| Reported April list for medical
Snapshot”, treatment
UN OCHA, out of the 2024,
10 December Gaza Strip
Entry
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the Health Ministry’s
Ministry’s 17 April
17 April list forlistmedical
for medical treatment
treatment
https://www.ochaopt.org/content/reported-impact-snapshot-gaza-strip-10-december-2024. out ofout
theofGaza
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StripStrip
Entry in the Health Ministry’s 17 April list for medical treatment out of the Gaza Strip
54 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 15 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5306.
54 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 15 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5306.
55 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 17 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5317.
55 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 17 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5317.
54 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 15 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5306. 30
54 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 15 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5306.
55 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 17 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5317.
54 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 15 April27 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5306.
55 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 17 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5317.
54 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 15 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5306.
30
54 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 15 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5306.
55
54
 Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza
Abeer
Abeer Muhammad
Muhammad Abu Abu Ghaben
Ghaben (‫ـﺒﻦ‬
(‫ﻏـﺒﻦ‬
‫ـﻤﺪ ااﺑﺑـﻮـﻮ ﻏ‬
‫ﺤـﻤﺪ‬‫ـﻤﺪ ﻣﻣﺤ‬
‫ﺤـﻤﺪ‬‫ـﺒﯿﺮ ﻣﻣﺤ‬
‫ﻋـﺒﯿﺮ‬‫)ﻋ‬,
), ID
ID number
number 921692737,
921692737, was
was described
described inin the
the 21
21 April
April
2024 list
Abeer
2024 list as
Abeer aaMuhammad
patient
patient with
asMuhammad withAbumultiple
Abu Ghaben
Ghaben
multiple myeloma.
((‫اﺑـﻮ ﻏـﺒﻦ‬56‫ـﻤﺪ‬He
myeloma.
56
He had
‫ـﻤﺪ ﻣﺤ‬
had ‫ ﻣﺤ‬featured
‫)ﻋـﺒﯿﺮ‬, IDin
featured the
the 29
innumber
number March 2024
29 921692737,
March fatality
2024was
921692737, list,
list, more
wasdescribed
described
fatality than
in the
more in 21 April
than
three
theweeks
21 earlier,
April
2024 list
three weeks 2024 as
as a as
earlier, a war
list
patient as fatality.
a warwitha patient with multiple myeloma. 56
He had featured in
multiple myeloma. He had featured in the 29 March 2024 fatality list, more than
fatality. 56 the 29 March
2024 fatality
three weekslist, more
earlier, asthan
a warthree
fatality. weeks earlier, as a war fatality.

Entry in the Health Ministry’s 29 March fatality list

Entry
Entry in the
in the HealthMinistry’s
Health Ministry’s 29
29March
March fatality list list
fatality
Entry in the Health Ministry’s 29 March fatality list

Entry
Entry in the
in the HealthMinistry’s
Health Ministry’s 30
30April
Aprilfatality list list
fatality
Entry in the Health Ministry’s 30 April fatality list
Entry in the Health Ministry’s 30 April fatality list
‫اﻟﺘﺸﺨﯿﺺ‬
‫اﺳﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻨﻮا‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺴ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺸﺨﯿﺺ‬
‫اﻻﺟﺮاء‬+ ‫اﻟﺠﻨ‬
‫اﻟﺮﻗ‬
‫رﻗﻢ اﻟﺠﻮال‬ ‫ھﻮﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺮاﻓﻖ‬ ‫اﺳﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻨﻮا‬ ‫رﻗﻢ اﻟﺠﻮال‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺴ‬ ‫رﻗﻢ اﻟﮭﻮﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻻﺟﺮاء‬+ ‫اﻟﻌﻤﺮ‬
‫اﻟﺮﻗ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺸﻔﻰ اﻻﺳﻢ‬
‫اﻟﺠﻨ‬
‫رﻗﻢ اﻟﺠﻮال‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺮاﻓﻖ ھﻮﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺮاﻓﻖ‬ ‫ن‬ ‫رﻗﻢ اﻟﺠﻮال‬ ‫ﻢ‬ ‫رﻗﻢ اﻟﮭﻮﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻤﺮاﻟﺘﺸﺨﯿﺺ اﻟﻄﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﺲ‬
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the wider patterns
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identified in this report. 4. IDF-Reported Militant Deaths
small sample but corroborates the wider patterns Militant
4. IDF-Reported of fabrication
Deaths identified in this report.
4. IDF-Reported Militant Deaths
During
During this
this war,
war, it
it has
has been
been assessed
assessed that that Hamas’s
Hamas’s true true strength
strength isis 40,000
40,000 or or more
more combatants.
combatants.57 In
57
In January
January
2024,
2024, the United States intelligence community estimated that Israel had killed between 20 and 30% 57of
the United
During thisStates
war, intelligence
it has been community
assessed that estimated
Hamas’s that
true Israel
strength hadis killed
40,000 between
or more 20 and 30%
combatants. ofIn January
Hamas combatants,
Hamas2024, the United
combatants, so between 8,000
States intelligence
so between and 12,000
community
8,000 and 12,000 combatants.
estimated
combatants.
58
58 that Israel had killed between 20 and 30% of
Hamas combatants, so between 8,000 and 12,000 combatants.58
In
In May
May 2024,
2024, the
the United
United States
States intelligence
intelligence community
community estimated
estimated that
that Israel
Israel had
had killed
killed 30 30 to
to 35%
35% of of
Hamas’sIn combatants.
May 2024, This
the range
United by
StatesAmerican
intelligenceintelligence
community would equate
estimated
Hamas’s combatants. This range by American intelligence would equate to 12,000–14,000 combatants. to
that12,000–14,000
Israel had combatants.
killed 30 to
59
35%59of
The
The current
Hamas’s
current official IDF
IDF estimate
combatants.
official is
is that
This range
estimate thatby17,000–20,000 militants
American intelligence
17,000–20,000 have
have been
militants would killed
equate
been inside
inside Gaza.
to 12,000–14,000
killed
60
Gaza.60 combatants.59
The current official IDF estimate is that 17,000–20,000 militants have been killed inside Gaza.60
The
The IDF has
IDF has carefully
carefully reported
reported thesethese numbers
numbers over over time
time based
based onon field
field reports
reports and
and various
various sources
sources ofof
intelligence.
The IDF
intelligence. 10,000 of the
has carefully
10,000 17,000
of the 17,000reported have been
havethese identified
beennumbers
identified by
over name,
by time
name, which
based
which is a
onisfield large number
reports
a large number in the
and various midst of
of war.
sources
in the midst of
war.
intelligence. 10,000 of the 17,000 have been identified by name, which is a large number in the midst of war.

56 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 21 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5333.

56
56 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 21 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5333.

Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 21 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5333.

56
57 Yonah Jeremy
57 Yonah Jeremy Bob, “Surprise! Hamas has thousands more fighters than Israel initially thought – analysis,” The Jerusalem
Bob, “Surprise! Hamas has thousands more fighters than Israel initially thought – analysis,” The Jerusalem
Post
Post,, 27
57 March
27 Yonah 2024,
March Jeremyhttps://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-794045.
2024, Bob, “Surprise! Hamas has thousands more fighters than Israel initially thought – analysis,” The Jerusalem
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-794045.
58 NancyPost , 27 March 2024, https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-794045.
A. Youssef, Jared Malsin and Carrie Keller-Lynn, “Hamas Toll Thus Far Falls Short of Israel’s War Aim, U.S. Says,”
58 Nancy A.
Nancy A. Youssef,
Youssef, Jared
Jared Malsin
Malsin and
and Carrie
Carrie Keller-Lynn,
Keller-Lynn, “Hamas
“Hamas Toll
Toll Thus
Thus Far
Far Falls
Falls Short
Short of
of Israel’s
Israel’s War
War Aim,
Aim, U.S.
U.S. Says,”
Says,”
The
The Wall Street
StreetA.Journal
58 Nancy
Wall Youssef,,, Jared
Journal 21 January
Malsin2024,
21 January
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-toll-thus-far-falls-short-of-israels-
and Carrie
2024, Keller-Lynn, “Hamas Toll Thus Far Falls Short of Israel’s War Aim, U.S. Says,”
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-toll-thus-far-falls-short-of-israels-
war-aims-u-s-says-d1c43164.
The Wall Street Journal, 21 January 2024, https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-toll-thus-far-falls-short-of-israels-
war-aims-u-s-says-d1c43164.
war-aims-u-s-says-d1c43164.
59 Alexander
59 Alexander Ward, Erin Banco and Lara Seligman, “Biden admin openly hammering Israel’s military strategy in Gaza,”
Ward, Erin Banco and Lara Seligman, “Biden admin openly hammering Israel’s military strategy in Gaza,”
Politico
59,Alexander
Politico 21 May 2024,
Ward,
, 21 May 2024,
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/21/biden-admin-hammering-israel-military-strategy-
Erin Banco and Lara Seligman, “Biden admin openly hammering Israel’s military strategy in Gaza,”
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/21/biden-admin-hammering-israel-military-strategy-
gaza-00159262.
Politico, 21 May 2024, https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/21/biden-admin-hammering-israel-military-strategy-
gaza-00159262.
gaza-00159262.
60 Author’s
60 Author’s interview with IDF Spokesman Lt Col Peter Lerner, 11 October 2024.
interview with IDF Spokesman Lt Col Peter Lerner, 11 October 2024.
56 Palestinian Ministry of Health/Gaza, Telegram post, 21 April 2024, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5333.
60 Author’s interview with IDF Spokesman Lt Col Peter Lerner, 11 October 2024. 31
31
31
28
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

4. IDF-Reported Militant Deaths

During this war, it has been assessed that Hamas’s true strength is 40,000 or more combatants. 57
In January 2024, the United States intelligence community estimated that Israel had killed
between 20 and 30% of Hamas combatants, so between 8,000 and 12,000 combatants. 58

In May 2024, the United States intelligence community estimated that Israel had killed 30 to
35% of Hamas’s combatants. This range by American intelligence would equate to 12,000–
14,000 combatants. 59 The current official IDF estimate is that 17,000–20,000 militants have
been killed inside Gaza. 60

The IDF has carefully reported these numbers over time based on field reports and various
sources of intelligence. 10,000 of the 17,000 have been identified by name, which is a large
number in the midst of war.

The highly regarded Institute for the Study of War corroborated IDF reports of the defeat of
Hamas. Only three out of 24 brigades were not classified as “defeated”. Only small groups
remain. There is a “severely degraded tunnel network”. The Institute confirms a 50 to 75%
fatality rate in Khan Younis. 61 This all supports claims that at least 40% of Hamas and Palestine
Islamic Jihad members have been killed.

Progression of IDF claims of combatants killed has matched war activity and intensity, with
higher volumes of killing in the first few months of the war and markedly fewer during most of
2024. The ratio of the IDF’s own fatalities to enemy combatants is also broadly consistent with
its figures against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which are not really disputed. In November 2024, the
IDF reported that it had killed 1,300 combatants since early October. 62 UN OCHA reported
1,962 additional fatalities in the Gaza Strip over that period (9 October to 19 November), so
these figures are consistent across both IDF and UN reporting chains. 63

It is believed that Hamas is recruiting new fighters, which suggests they have taken significant
casualties that need replacing. 64 This is corroborated by reports of massive defeats of
brigades, deaths of senior commanders and destruction of tunnels. Hamas itself has admitted
to massive losses. The IDF released a letter by Rafa’a Salameh, commander of Khan Younis
brigade, admitting to a 50% fatality rate, which has not been disputed. 65 According to third
party assessments, the IDF has reduced nearly all Hamas brigades by about half.

57 Yonah Jeremy Bob, “Surprise! Hamas has thousands more fighters than Israel initially thought – analysis”, The Jerusalem Post,
27 March 2024, https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-794045.
58 Nancy A. Youssef, Jared Malsin and Carrie Keller-Lynn, “Hamas Toll Thus Far Falls Short of Israel’s War Aim, U.S. Says”,
The Wall Street Journal, 21 January 2024, https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-toll-thus-far-falls-short-of-israels-
war-aims-u-s-says-d1c43164.
59 Alexander Ward, Erin Banco and Lara Seligman, “Biden admin openly hammering Israel’s military strategy in Gaza”, Politico,
21 May 2024, https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/21/biden-admin-hammering-israel-military-strategy-gaza-00159262.
60 Author’s interview with IDF Spokesman Lt Col Peter Lerner, 11 October 2024.
61 Andie Parry, “Israel is defeating Hamas, but destroying Hamas will require a post-war vision”, Institute for the Study of War,
19 September 2024, https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/israel-defeating-hamas-destroying-hamas-will-
require-post-war-vision.
62 Yonah Jeremy Bob, “IDF intensifies operations in Gaza and Lebanon, kills hundreds of Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists”,
The Jerusalem Post, 19 November 2024, https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-829846.
63 UN OCHA reports, 9 October-19 November 2024, https://www.ochaopt.org/crisis.
64 Isabel Marques da Silva, “Analysis: Hamas regenerates in Gaza, recruiting fighters despite Israeli defeat claims”, Euronews,
7 October 2024, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/10/07/analysis-hamas-regenerates-in-gaza-recruiting-
fighters-despite-israeli-defeat-claims.
65 Emanuel Fabian, “Gallant reveals document from top Hamas commander warning Sinwar of dire losses”, Times of Israel,
11 September 2024, https://www.timesofisrael.com/gallant-reveals-document-from-top-hamas-commander-warning-sinwar-
of-dire-losses/.

29
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

The IDF is better able to identify combatants than civilians because it targets combatants and
invests resources in assessing enemy casualties. It is common for a military operation to know
who the killed combatants are but not the civilians, due to the difficulties in counting the dead
from air strikes and chaotic, dynamic close-quarter combat. The IDF is similar to comparable
militaries and carries out post-mission battle damage assessments and team debriefs, where
the numbers of enemy combatants killed are reported.

30
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

5. Reliability of Hamas Fatality Data in Previous Conflicts

There have been major issues with the data shared by Hamas in previous conflicts.

Operation Cast Lead, December 2008 – January 2009

At the end of Operation Cast Lead, Hamas claimed that 1,300 Gazans were killed, and only
48 were combatants – meaning 95% of the total death toll was made up of civilians. 66 Hamas’s
overall fatality figure was within range of Israeli estimates, but after an IDF investigation,
where the IDF gathered full names and IDs of individuals killed using the Palestinian
Population Registry, Israel concluded that 709 Hamas fighters died, out of a total of 1,166
IDF-identified fatalities. 67

In November 2009, Hamas admitted that around 600–700 of its fighters were killed during
Operation Cast Lead. This was covered in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz 68 but was ignored by
English-speaking mainstream media outlets.

Operation Protective Edge, July – August 2014

The course of the conflict saw inconsistent reporting. 69 During the early stages of the conflict,
in July 2014, the Gaza Ministry of Health published daily fatality lists, and the names, ages and
circumstances of death of the deceased to a limited extent.

For the first few weeks of the conflict, the MoH also regularly updated a list of total fatalities.

By August 2014, the MoH had stopped publishing lists of total fatalities and reverted to issuing
daily reports on fatalities that had occurred that day. The Ministry compiled additional lists
retrospectively to include total fatalities. These lists often lacked names, identifying details
and circumstances of death.

As reported by UN OCHA, the Ministry of Health claimed that 2,131 Gazans were killed, including
1,473 civilians – accounting for 70% of the death toll. 70 The fatality figures were broadly in line
with the IDF’s estimated range, but combatant deaths were vastly undercounted.

IDF Reports
IDF analysis of fatalities suggests that 2,125 Palestinians were killed during the 2014 Gaza
Conflict, with at least 936 (44% of the total) verified militants and 761 (36%) civilians (the other
20% could not be classified). 886 Hamas fighters were identified by name. 71 Other estimates
suggest 52% of deaths were combatants. 72

66 “Hamas says only 48 fighters slain in Israel war”, AlArabiya News, 19 January 2009, https://english.alarabiya.net/articles/
2009%2F01%2F19%2F64513.
67 Yaakov Lappin, “IDF releases Cast Lead casualty numbers”, The Jerusalem Post, 26 March 2009, https://www.jpost.com/
israel/idf-releases-cast-lead-casualty-numbers.
68 “Hamas Admits 600-700 of Its Men Were Killed in Cast Lead”, Haaretz, 9 November 2009, https://www.haaretz.com/2010-11-
09/ty-article/hamas-admits-600-700-of-its-men-were-killed-in-cast-lead/0000017f-ee02-ddba-a37f-ee6edc3f0000.
69 For more details on this conflict, see: “Operation Protective Edge-Full Report – Annex: Palestinian Fatality Figures in the
2014 Gaza Conflict”, Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 14 June 2015, https://www.gov.il/en/pages/operation-protective-
edge-full-report; “The 2014 Gaza Conflict: Factual and Legal Aspects”, Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 14 June 2015,
https://www.gov.il/en/pages/2014-gaza-conflict-factual-and-legal-aspects.
70 “Occupied Palestinian Territory: Gaza Emergency Situation Report (as of 4 September 2014, 08:00 hrs)”, UN OCHA,
4 September 2014, https://www.ochaopt.org/content/occupied-palestinian-territory-gaza-emergency-situation-report-4-
september-2014-0800-hrs.
71 Author’s interview with IDF source, July 2024.
72 “Additional findings in the examination of the names of Palestinians killed in Operation Protective Edge – Part Eight”,
The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, 31 December 2014, https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/20753/.

31
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

Hamas did not distinguish between combatant and civilian fatalities either in its reports or in
its named lists of fatalities. A review revealed the inclusion of repeated entries, non-combat
related deaths, combat-related deaths attributable to Palestinian armed groups rather than
the IDF and incorrect ages. The names of at least 50 Hamas militants who were killed during
the 2014 Gaza Conflict did not appear on any Hamas fatality list.

Concealment of Fighter Deaths

Hamas enlisted the wider Gazan public to help conceal the combatant status of dead fighters.
For example, on 5 August 2014, the Ministry of Interior in the Gaza Strip posted the following
notice through social media: 73

“The Ministry of the Interior and National

Security [in the Gaza Strip] calls on all our
[Palestinian] people and the resistance
factions to be wary of disseminating
information and pictures of fatalities of
the resistance, and [about] mentioning
details about [the circumstances of] their
deaths as martyrs and where they died.”

On 11 July 2014, the Ministry uploaded guidelines for “social media activists” in the Gaza Strip
to its website, Facebook and Twitter pages. An excerpt from the guidelines states that: 74
Anyone killed or martyred is to be called a civilian from Gaza or Palestine, before we talk
about his status in jihad or his military rank. Don’t forget to always add “innocent civilian”
[Arabic] or “innocent citizen” [English] in your description of those killed in Israeli attacks
on Gaza … Do not publish photos of military commanders. Do not mention their names in
public, and do not praise their achievements in conversations with foreign friends!

Right: Messages
posted on the
Ministry of Left: an excerpt
Interior’s website from the social
referring to the media guidelines,
social media as translated
guidelines. above

73 Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), “Hamas Interior Ministry to Social Media Activists: Always Call the Dead
‘Innocent Civilians’; Don't Post Photos Of Rockets Being Fired From Civilian Population Centers”, 7 July 2014,
https://www.memri.org/reports/hamas-interior-ministry-social-media-activists-always-call-dead-innocent-civilians-dont-post.
74 For the full text of the social media guidelines, see: “Hamas Interior Ministry To Social Media Activists: Always Call the Dead
‘Innocent Civilians’; Don’t Post Photos Of Rockets Being Fired From Civilian Population Centers”, Middle East Media Research
Institute, 17 July 2014, https://www.memri.org/reports/hamas-interior-ministry-social-media-activists-always-call-dead-
innocent-civilians-dont-post. In the Gaza conflict of 2008–2009, Hamas prohibited users of its web-forum PALDF.net from
posting pictures, names or information about militants killed or injured while hostilities were ongoing. See: “Examination of
the names of Palestinians killed in Operation Protective Edge – Part Three”, Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information
Center, 17 August 2014, p.7, https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/Data/articles/Art_20704/E_147_14_1542981406.pdf.

32
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

Other Incidents
There are questions over the reporting of fatalities from other flashpoints in recent history.
After the border protest incident on 14 May 2018, the MoH reported that 55 protestors were
killed during the protest, which was accepted as fact by OCHA. 75 However, after receiving
criticism from a Palestinian interviewer that Hamas had allowed so many civilian protestors
to be killed, a Hamas official revised the numbers and stated that 50 of the approximately 60
killed were Hamas members. 76

75 “Fifty-five Palestinians killed and thousands injured in Gaza”, UN OCHA, 14 May 2018, https://www.ochaopt.org/content/fifty-
five-palestinians-killed-and-thousands-injured-gaza.
76 “udah Ari Gross and Toi Staff, “Hamas official: 50 of the 62 Gazans killed in border violence were our members”, The Times of
Israel, 16 May 2018, https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-official-50-of-the-people-killed-in-gaza-riots-were-members/.

33
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

6. International Misrepresentation of Combatants as Civilians

A study of leading global English-language media outlets shows that they have systematically
failed to distinguish between civilian and combatant fatalities. This failure means that the
narrative has been distorted into something that misrepresents the situation in Gaza. This
affects public opinion, influences policy-making and has broader implications for international
relations and conflict resolution.
An analysis of 1,378 articles from eight leading English-language media organisations between
February and May 2024 revealed that combatant fatalities are almost entirely excluded from
reported totals, with most outlets relying heavily on data from Hamas-controlled sources like
the Gaza Ministry of Health and marginalising information provided by Israeli sources.
The outlets studied were CNN, BBC News, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The
Guardian, Associated Press, Reuters and the Australian ABC.
The MoH, which does not differentiate between combatant and civilian fatalities in its reporting,
claims that the conflict has taken over 44,786 total fatalities in Gaza as of December 2024. 77
In contrast, Israel specifically tracks combatant fatalities and reports that over 17,000 fighters
have been killed during the conflict (as of August 2024). Excluding combatant fatalities from
reports creates a misleading narrative that disproportionately portrays Israeli actions as
targeting civilians.
For example, TV host Fareed Zakaria told CNN audiences in April that the cost of the war
was “35,000 civilians dying”, 78 mistakenly presenting the total number of fatalities as civilian
deaths – and including more than 10,000 militants. The CNN audience on YouTube exceeds
17 million viewers. Another example from the wider media is an exclusive interview aired by
CBS in June 2024 featuring Army Major Harrison Mann, a 13-year veteran who resigned in
protest against US support for Israel’s war in Gaza. During the interview with CBS’s Jim Axelrod,
Mann said, “I don’t know how you kill 35,000 civilians by accident”. 79 CBS has more than six
million viewers on YouTube.
Journalists’ mistakes are often fuelled by the failure of international organisations to provide
accurate data. The UN also regularly cites Hamas’s fatality figures. One striking example is
a UN video from January 2024 entitled “25,000 civilians killed in Gaza war as humanitarian
needs go on rising” and featuring interviews with UN Relief and Works Agency workers. 80 The
figure of 25,000 fatalities was the total number reported by the MoH at the time.
The UN’s regular and unfiltered use of these Health Ministry statistics, even though they come
directly from a Hamas-controlled organisation, legitimises them in the eyes of journalists. The
UN channel’s audience, which had access to this video, exceeds three million viewers.
All these examples demonstrate how fatality figures are selectively reported and framed. This
approach dramatically risks misleading public opinion and influencing policy decisions based
on incomplete or skewed information.
Furthermore, these examples raise significant concerns about journalistic ethics in reporting
on armed conflicts. In the case of Gaza, the principle of neutrality – which requires journalists
to cite both sides – has been compromised. Our efforts to locate clear ethical guidelines

77 Hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Israel | Reported Impact Snapshot”, UN OCHA, 10 December 2024 https://www.ochaopt.org/
content/reported-impact-snapshot-gaza-strip-10-december-2024.
78 Fareed Zakaria (@FareedZakaria), X post, 7 April 2024, 7:15 pm, https://x.com/FareedZakaria/status/1777037486704795680.
79 John Spencer (@SpencerGuard), X post, 7 June 2024, https://x.com/SpencerGuard/status/1799158424023765102.
80 United Nations, YouTube video, 22 January 2024, https://www.youtube.com/shorts/7zhSn8aFIZk.

34
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

or recommendations addressing this issue have been unsuccessful. The lack of established
standards further highlights the need for greater accountability and transparency in media
practices, especially when reporting on sensitive and polarising topics like war.

Key Findings of the Research

1. Neglect of Combatant Fatalities
l Only 3% of articles included the number of combatants in reported fatality totals.

l Just 16% of articles mentioned that the Health Ministry’s figures fail to distinguish
between combatants and civilians.
l The failure to report combatant deaths perpetuates the narrative that all fatalities are

civilian, reinforcing claims of disproportionate force.

2. Underrepresentation of Israeli Sources

l Only 5% of the analysed articles cited Israeli sources for fatality data.

l In contrast, figures from Hamas-controlled organisations appeared in 98% of the

articles studied, often without scrutiny or context.

3. Limited Critical Analysis of Hamas Data

l 19% of articles treated figures provided by Hamas-controlled organisations as
established fact without attributing the figures to anyone.
l Less than 2% of the media sources that used the Ministry of Health’s statistics
acknowledged that they are unverifiable or contested.
l Conversely, of the smaller number of articles which used Israeli-sourced statistics,
50% questioned their credibility.

The framing of fatality data in international conflicts significantly impacts public perception and
policymaking. Media outlets serve as primary sources of information for the global audience,
shaping narratives about the causes, consequences and responsibilities of conflict.

Methodology
The media research was conducted by Fifty.Global research group with the support of
the International Institute for Social and Legal Studies. The study employed Open-Source
Intelligence (OSINT) methodologies. Key elements of the methodology included:

1. Exhaustive Sampling
l Analysis of all articles with Gaza total fatalities statistics published from February
through May 2024 across eight major outlets: CNN, BBC News, The New York Times,
The Washington Post, The Guardian, Associated Press, Reuters and the Australian ABC.
l Sample sizes ranged from 111 articles (ABC) to 246 articles (The Guardian), ensuring

statistical significance with a confidence interval of ±4% or less.

2. Rigorous Coding, Verification and Bias Prevention

l Quotes were categorised into 76 distinct codes, with a final selection of 39 codes
focusing on fatality reporting and source attribution.
l All quotes underwent double verification by independent researchers to ensure
neutrality, accuracy and validity.
l Coding underwent triple verification by independent researchers.

l Strict exclusion criteria were applied for ambiguous data to maintain objectivity.

l Diverse research team composition was implemented to avoid regional or organi-

sational biases.

35
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza

7. Conclusion

Our investigation into the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health’s fatality reports during the
conflict reveals widespread inaccuracies and distortion in the data collection process.

These distortions primarily result from flawed methodologies, including reliance on media
reports and incomplete family submissions and the inclusion of non-conflict-related deaths
such as natural causes and accidental fatalities. The MoH, operating under Hamas, the
perpetrators of the 7 October massacre in Israel, has systematically inflated the death toll by
failing to distinguish between civilian and combatant deaths, over-reporting fatalities among
women and children and even including individuals who died before the conflict began.

This distortion of data not only creates a misleading picture of the conflict but also raises
significant concerns about the credibility of the numbers being reported across the world.

The global media’s uncritical acceptance and dissemination of these unreliable figures has
compounded the issue, shaping public opinion and international discourse on the conflict in
ways that may not reflect the reality on the ground. Many media outlets fail to scrutinise the
sources of the fatality data, often presenting the MoH figures as authoritative without question.

This has led to a narrative where the IDF is portrayed as disproportionately targeting civilians,
while the actual numbers suggest a significant proportion of the dead are combatants. This
lack of transparency and clear attempts to inflate the civilian death toll further erode the
credibility of the reporting.

Our investigation found numerous statistical anomalies in the MoH’s fatality lists, including
significant daily increases in the reported deaths of women and children that are mathematically
impossible. Furthermore, the inclusion of natural deaths in war-related fatality counts, the
erroneous categorisation of men as women and children, and the failure to account for deaths
caused by internal Palestinian violence or misfired rockets from Gaza have all contributed to
inflated and misleading numbers.

This report highlights the broader implications of such data distortion. International
Humanitarian Law requires that warring parties take measures to minimise civilian harm,
but the distortion of fatality data undermines efforts to assess compliance with these
laws. The absence of credible data also hampers international responses, humanitarian aid
efforts and peace negotiations. Without accurate and reliable figures, it becomes nearly
impossible to understand the full scope of the conflict’s impact or to hold parties accountable
for their actions.

While it is crucial to acknowledge the suffering and loss of life in Gaza, the uncritical repetition
of unverified fatality figures serves to obscure the truth rather than illuminate it. The MoH’s
fatality reports, in their current form, should not be treated as definitive, nor should they be
used as the primary basis for international discourse on the conflict. This situation calls for a
more measured approach in reporting and analysis, one that critically examines sources of
information and distinguishes between legitimate and manipulated data.

Responsible reporting requires more than simply relaying numbers. It demands a critical
assessment of the data, an understanding of the context and a commitment to accuracy.
The international media plays a crucial role in shaping global perceptions of the conflict.
Only by approaching these figures with a critical eye can the media help uncover the truth
behind the war’s human cost, ensuring that the true nature of the conflict is represented in the
international arena.

36
DEFENDING EUROPE:
Title: “QUESTIONABLE COUNTING: The Henry Jackson Society

“GLOBAL BRITAIN”
ANALYSING THE DEATH TOLL FROM THE Millbank Tower, 21-24 Millbank
HAMAS-RUN MINISTRY OF HEALTH IN GAZA” London SW1P 4QP, UK
By Andrew Fox

AND THE FUTURE

© The Henry Jackson Society, 2024 www.henryjacksonsociety.org

OF EUROPEAN
GEOPOLITICS
BY JAMES ROGERS

CENTRE
FOR NEW
MIDDLE
EAST
DEMOCRACY | FREEDOM | HUMAN RIGHTS December
Report 2024
No. 2018/1