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Multivariate Statistical Methods A Primer Third Edition
Manly Digital Instant Download
Author(s): Manly, Bryan F.J
ISBN(s): 9781482285987, 1482285983
Edition: 3rd ed
File Details: PDF, 10.71 MB
Year: 2004
Language: english
Multivariate
Statistical
Methods
A primer
THIRD EDITION
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efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher cannot
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A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step
Lao Tsu
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Contents
Chapter 1 The material of multivariate analysis .........................................1
1.1 Examples of multivariate data.....................................................................1
1.2 Preview of multivariate methods..............................................................12
1.3 The multivariate normal distribution.......................................................14
1.4 Computer programs ....................................................................................15
1.5 Graphical methods.......................................................................................15
1.6 Chapter summary ........................................................................................16
References...............................................................................................................16
Author Index.......................................................................................................209
1
2 Multivariate Statistical Methods: A Primer, Third Edition
Note: X1 = total length, X2 = alar extent, X3 = length of beak and head, X4 = length of
humerus, and X5 = length of keel of sternum. Birds 1 to 21 survived, and birds 22 to
49 died. The data source is Bumpus (1898), who measured in inches and millimeters.
Source: Adapted from Bumpus, H.C. (1898), Biological Lectures, 11th Lecture, Marine Biology
Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA, pp. 209–226.
close to the average survived better than individuals with measurements far
from the average.
In fact, the development of multivariate statistical methods had hardly
begun in 1898 when Bumpus was writing. The correlation coefficient as a
measure of the relationship between two variables was devised by Francis
Galton in 1877. However, it was another 56 years before Harold Hotelling
described a practical method for carrying out a principal components analy-
sis, which is one of the simplest multivariate analyses that can usefully be
applied to Bumpus’ data. Bumpus did not even calculate standard devia-
tions. Nevertheless, his methods of analysis were sensible. Many authors
have reanalyzed his data and, in general, have confirmed his conclusions.
Taking the data as an example for illustrating multivariate methods,
several interesting questions arise. In particular:
x2 x1
x4
x3
predynastic period (circa 3300 B.C.), the 12th and 13th dynasties (circa
1850 B.C.), the Ptolemaic period (circa 200 B.C.), and the Roman period
(circa A.D. 150). Four measurements are available on each skull, as illustrated
in Figure 1.1.
For this example, some interesting questions are:
These questions are, of course, rather similar to the ones suggested for
Example 1.1.
It will be seen later that there are differences between the five samples
that can be explained partly as time trends. It must be said, however, that
the reasons for the apparent changes are unknown. Migration of other races
into the region may well have been the most important factor.
SS (Oregon)
MC
DP GL
SB
IF
WSB
JRC
CR AF GH
JRH
SJ
PZ
California
Scale UO
0 50 100
Miles
LO
describe the genetic distribution of the butterfly to some extent. Figure 1.2
shows the geographical locations of the colonies.
In this example, questions that can be asked include:
1. Are the Pgi frequencies similar for colonies that are close in space?
2. To what extent, if any, are the Pgi frequencies related to the environ-
mental variables?
These are important questions in trying to decide how the Pgi frequen-
cies are determined. If the genetic composition of the colonies was largely
determined by past and present migration, then gene frequencies will tend
to be similar for colonies that are close in space, although they may show
little relationship with the environmental variables. On the other hand, if it
is the environment that is most important, then this should show up in
relationships between the gene frequencies and the environmental variables
(assuming that the right variables have been measured), but close colonies
will only have similar gene frequencies if they have similar environments.
Obviously, colonies that are close in space will usually have similar environ-
ments, so it may be difficult to reach a clear conclusion on this matter.
Chapter one: The material of multivariate analysis 9
Note: X1 = breadth of mandible; X2 = height of mandible below the first molar; X3 = length of
the first molar; X4 = breadth of the first molar; X5 = length from first to third molar,
inclusive; and X6 = length from first to fourth premolar, inclusive.
Source: Adapted from Higham, C.F.W. et al. (1980), J. Archaeological Sci., 7, 149–165.
Note: AGR, agriculture, forestry, and fishing; MIN, mining and quarrying; MAN, manufacturing; PS, power and water supplies; CON,
construction; SER, services; FIN, finance; SPS, social and personal services; TC, transport and communications. The data for the
individual countries are for various years from 1989 to 1995. Data from Euromonitor (1995), except for Germany and the U.K., where
more reasonable values were obtained from the United Nations Statistical Yearbook (2000).
Source: Adapted from Euromonitor (1995), European Marketing Data and Statistics, Euromonitor Publications, London; and from United
Nations (2000), Statistical Yearbook, 44th Issue, U.N. Department of Social Affairs, New York.
12 Multivariate Statistical Methods: A Primer, Third Edition
I1 = X1 + X2 + X3 + X4 + X5
should measure this aspect of the data quite well. This accounts for one
dimension of the data. Another index is
I2 = X1 + X2 + X3 – X4 – X5
which is a contrast between the first three measurements and the last two.
This reflects another dimension of the data. Principal components analysis
provides an objective way of finding indices of this type so that the variation
in the data can be accounted for as concisely as possible. It may well turn
out that two or three principal components provide a good summary of all
the original variables. Consideration of the values of the principal compo-
nents instead of the values of the original variables may then make it much
easier to understand what the data have to say. In short, principal compo-
nents analysis is a means of simplifying data by reducing the number of
variables.
Factor analysis also attempts to account for the variation in a number of
original variables using a smaller number of index variables or factors. It is
assumed that each original variable can be expressed as a linear combination
of these factors, plus a residual term that reflects the extent to which the
variable is independent of the other variables. For example, a two-factor
model for the sparrow data assumes that
X1 = a11F1 + a12F2 + e1
X2 = a21F1 + a22F2 + e2
X3 = a31F1 + a32F2 + e3
X4 = a41F1 + a42F2 + e4
X5 = a51F1 + a52F2 + e5
Chapter one: The material of multivariate analysis 13
where the aij values are constants, F1 and F2 are the factors, and ei represents
the variation in Xi that is independent of the variation in the other X variables.
Here F1 might be the factor of size. In that case, the coefficients a11, a21, a31,
a41, and a51 would all be positive, reflecting the fact that some birds tend to
be large and some birds tend to be small on all body measurements. The
second factor F2 might then measure an aspect of the shape of birds, with
some positive coefficients and some negative coefficients. If this two-factor
model fitted the data well, then it would provide a relatively straightforward
description of the relationship between the five body measurements being
considered.
One type of factor analysis starts by taking the first few principal com-
ponents as the factors in the data being considered. These initial factors are
then modified by a special transformation process called factor rotation in
order to make them easier to interpret. Other methods for finding initial
factors are also used. A rotation to simpler factors is almost always done.
Discriminant function analysis is concerned with the problem of seeing
whether it is possible to separate different groups on the basis of the available
measurements. This could be used, for example, to see how well surviving
and nonsurviving sparrows can be separated using their body measurements
(Example 1.1), or how skulls from different epochs can be separated, again
using size measurements (Example 1.2). Like principal components analysis,
discriminant function analysis is based on the idea of finding suitable linear
combinations of the original variables to achieve the intended aim.
Cluster analysis is concerned with the identification of groups of similar
objects. There is not much point in doing this type of analysis with data like
those of Example 1.1 and 1.2, as the groups (survivors/nonsurvivors and
epochs) are already known. However, in Example 1.3 there might be some
interest in grouping colonies on the basis of environmental variables or Pgi
frequencies, while in Example 1.4 the main point of interest is in the similarity
between prehistoric Thai dogs and other animals. Likewise, in Example 1.5
the European countries can possibly be grouped in terms of their similarity
in employment patterns.
With canonical correlation, the variables (not the objects) are divided into
two groups, and interest centers on the relationship between these. Thus in
Example 1.3, the first four variables are related to the environment, while
the remaining six variables reflect the genetic distribution at the different
colonies of Euphydryas editha. Finding what relationships, if any, exist
between these two groups of variables is of considerable biological interest.
Multidimensional scaling begins with data on some measure of the dis-
tances apart of a number of objects. From these distances, a map is then
constructed showing how the objects are related. This is a useful facility, as
it is often possible to measure how far apart pairs of objects are without
having any idea of how the objects are related in a geometric sense. Thus in
Example 1.4, there are ways of measuring the distances between modern
dogs and golden jackals, modern dogs and Chinese wolves, etc. Considering
each pair of animal groups gives 21 distances altogether, and from these
14 Multivariate Statistical Methods: A Primer, Third Edition
believe that this is not true. In particular, if all the individual variables being
studied appear to be normally distributed, then it is assumed that the joint
distribution is multivariate normal. This is, in fact, a minimum requirement
because the definition of multivariate normality requires more than this.
Cases do arise where the assumption of multivariate normality is clearly
invalid. For example, one or more of the variables being studied may have
a highly skewed distribution with several very high (or low) values; there
may be many repeated values; etc. This type of problem can sometimes be
overcome by an appropriate transformation of the data, as discussed in
elementary texts on statistics. If this does not work, then a rather special
form of analysis may be required.
One important aspect of a multivariate normal distribution is that it is
specified completely by a mean vector and a covariance matrix. The defini-
tions of a mean vector and a covariance matrix are given in Section 2.7.
Basically, the mean vector contains the mean values for all of the variables
being considered, while the covariance matrix contains the variances for all
of the variables plus the covariances, which measure the extent to which all
pairs of variables are related.
References
Bumpus, H.C. (1898), The elimination of the unfit as illustrated by the introduced
sparrow, Passer domesticus, Biological Lectures, 11th Lecture, Marine Biology
Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA, pp. 209–226.
Euromonitor (1995), European Marketing Data and Statistics, Euromonitor Publications,
London.
Higham, C.F.W., Kijngam, A., and Manly, B.F.J. (1980), An analysis of prehistoric
canid remains from Thailand, J. Archaeological Sci., 7, 149–165.
McKechnie, S.W., Ehrlich, P.R., and White, R.R. (1975), Population genetics of Euphy-
dryas butterflies, I: genetic variation and the neutrality hypothesis, Genetics,
81: 571–594.
Thomson, A. and Randall-Maciver, R. (1905), Ancient Races of the Thebaid, Oxford
University Press, Oxford, U.K.
United Nations (2000), Statistical Yearbook, 44th Issue, U.N. Department of Social
Affairs, New York.
chapter two
Matrix algebra
2.1 The need for matrix algebra
The theory of multivariate statistical methods can be explained reasonably
well only with the use of some matrix algebra. For this reason it is helpful,
if not essential, to have at least some knowledge of this area of mathematics.
This is true even for those who are interested in using the methods only as
tools. At first sight, the notation of matrix algebra is somewhat daunting.
However, it is not difficult to understand the basic principles, providing that
some of the details are accepted on faith.
Èa a12 . . a1n ˘
Í 11 ˙
Ía 21 a 22 . . a2n ˙
A = Í. . . ˙
Í ˙
Í. . . ˙
Ía am 2 . . a mn ˙˙
ÍÎ m1 ˚
È c1 ˘
Í ˙
Í c2 ˙
c=Í . ˙
Í ˙
Í . ˙
Íc ˙
ÍÎ m ˙˚
17
18 Multivariate Statistical Methods: A Primer, Third Edition
then this is called a column vector. If there is only one row, such as
r = (r1, r2 , . ., rn)
then this is called a row vector. Bold type is used to indicate matrices and
vectors.
The transpose of a matrix is obtained by interchanging the rows and the
columns. Thus the transpose of the matrix A above is
È a11 a 21 . . a m1 ˘
Ía a . . a ˙
Í 12 22 m2 ˙
A¢ = Í . . . ˙
Í ˙
Í . . . ˙
Ía1n a 2 n . . a mn ˙
Î ˚
Also, the transpose of the vector c is c¢ = (c1, c2, . ., cm), and the transpose of
the row vector r is the column vector r¢.
There are a number of special kinds of matrices that are important. A
zero matrix has all elements equal to zero, so that it is of the form
È0 0 . . 0˘
Í ˙
Í0 0 . . 0˙
0 = Í. . .˙
Í ˙
Í. . .˙
Í0 0 . . 0˙˙
ÍÎ ˚
A diagonal matrix has zero elements except down the main diagonal, so that
it takes the form
Èd 0 . . 0 ˘
Í 1 ˙
Í 0 d2 . . 0 ˙
D=Í . . . ˙
Í ˙
Í. . . ˙
Í 0 0 .. d ˙
ÍÎ n˙
˚
È1 0 . . 0˘
Í ˙
Í0 1 . . 0˙
I = Í. . .˙
Í ˙
Í. . .˙
Í0 0 . . 1˙˙
ÍÎ ˚
Two matrices are equal only if they are the same size and all of their
elements are equal. For example
Èa a a ˘ Èb b b ˘
Í 11 12 13 ˙ Í 11 12 13 ˙
Ía 21 a 22 a 23 ˙ = Í b 21 b 22 b 23 ˙
Ía a a ˙ Íb b b ˙
ÎÍ 31 32 33 ˙˚ ÍÎ 31 32 33 ˙˚
Èa a ˘ Èb b ˘ Èa + b a + b ˘
Í 11 12 ˙ Í 11 12 ˙ Í 11 11 12 12
˙
A + B = Ía 21 a 22 ˙ + Í b 21 b 22 ˙ = Ía 21 + b21 a 22 + b22 ˙
Ía a ˙ Íb b ˙ Ía + b a + b ˙
ÍÎ 31 32 ˙˚ ÍÎ 31 32 ˙˚ ÍÎ 31 31 32 32 ˙
˚
while
Èa a ˘ Èb b ˘ Èa - b a - b ˘
Í 11 12 ˙ Í 11 12 ˙ Í 11 11 12 12
˙
A - B = Ía 21 a 22 ˙ - Í b 21 b 22 ˙ = Ía 21 - b 21 a 22 - b 22 ˙
Ía a ˙ Íb b ˙ Ía - b a - b ˙
ÍÎ 31 32 ˙˚ ÍÎ 31 32 ˙˚ ÍÎ 31 31 32 32 ˙
˚
Clearly, these operations only apply with two matrices of the same size.
20 Multivariate Statistical Methods: A Primer, Third Edition
Èka ka ˘
Í 11 12
˙
kA = Íka 21 ka 22 ˙
Íka ka ˙
ÍÎ 31 32 ˙
˚
A.B = Í . . . ˙ . Í . . . ˙
Í ˙ Í ˙
Í . . . ˙ Í . . . ˙
Ía m1 a m 2 .. a mn ˙ Í bn 1 bn 2 .. bnp ˙
Î ˚ Î ˚
= Í . . . ˙
Í ˙
Í . . . ˙
ÍSa mj b j1 Sa mj b j 2 .. Sa mj b jp ˙
Î ˚
where the summations are for j running from 1 to n. Hence the element in
the ith row and kth column of A.B is
When A and B are both square matrices, then A.B and B.A are both
defined. However, they are not generally equal. For example,
È2 -1 ˘ È1 1˘ È2 ¥ 1 - 1 ¥ 0 2 ¥ 1 - 1 ¥ 1˘ È 2 1˘
Í ˙ ◊ Í ˙ = Í ˙ = Í ˙
ÍÎ1 1 ˙˚ ÍÎ0 1˙˚ ÍÎ1 ¥ 1 + 1 ¥ 0 1 ¥ 1 + 1 ¥ 1˙˚ ÍÎ 1 2˙˚
Chapter two: Matrix algebra 21
whereas
È1 1 ˘ È2 -1 ˘ È 1 ¥ 2 + 1 ¥ 1 - 1 ¥ 1 + 1 ¥ 1˘ È3 0˘
Í0 1 ˙ ◊ Í1 1 ˙ = Í0 ¥ 2 + 1 ¥ 1 - 1 ¥ 0 + 1 ¥ 1˙ = Í1 1˙
Î ˚ Î ˚ Î ˚ Î ˚
A ¥ A–1 = I
where I is the identity matrix, then the matrix A–1 is the inverse of the matrix
A. Inverses exist only for square matrices, but all square matrices do not
have inverses. If an inverse does exist, then it is both a left inverse, so that
A–1 ¥ A = I, as well as a right inverse so that A ¥ A–1 = I.
An example of an inverse matrix is
-1
È 2 1˘ È 23 -1 3˘
Í 1 2˙ = Í-1 3 2 3˙˚
Î ˚ Î
È2 1˘ È 2 3 -1 3˘ È1 0˘
Í ˙ ◊ Í ˙ = Í ˙
ÍÎ 1 2˙˚ ÍÎ-1 3 2 3˙˚ ÍÎ0 1˙˚
-1
Èa b ˘ È d D - b D˘
Í ˙ = Í ˙
ÍÎc d˙˚ ÍÎ-c D a D˙
˚
Q = x¢ A x
is a scalar that is called a quadratic form. This scalar can also be expressed as
n n
Q=Â Â xiaijx j
i =1 j =1
where xi is the element in the ith row of x and aij is the element in the ith
row and jth column of A.
a 21x1 + a 22 x 2 + º + a 2 n x n = l x 2
a n 1x1 + a n 2 x 2 + º + a nn x n = l x n
A x = lx
or
(A – l I) x = 0
values of l that are called the latent roots or eigenvalues of A. There can be
up to n of these eigenvalues. Given the ith eigenvalue l i , the equations can
be solved by arbitrarily setting x1 = 1, and the resulting vector of x values
with transpose x¢ = (1, x2, x3, . ., xn), or any multiple of this vector, is called
the ith latent root or the ith eigenvector of the matrix A. Also, the sum of the
eigenvalues is equal to the trace of A defined above, so that
trace (A) = l 1 + l 2 + . . + l n
n
x = (x1 + x 2 + ... + x n ) n = Â x i n
i =1
n
s 2 = Â (x i - x ) (n - 1)
2
i =1
( )( ) (n - 1)
n
c jk = Â x ij - x j x jk - xk
i =1
where xij is the value of variable Xj for the ith multivariate observation. This
covariance is then a measure of the extent to which there is a linear relation-
ship between Xj and Xk, with a positive value indicating that large value of
Xj and Xk tend to occur together, and a negative value indicating that large
values for one variable tend to occur with small values for the other variable.
It is related to the ordinary correlation coefficient between the two variables,
which is defined to be
24 Multivariate Statistical Methods: A Primer, Third Edition
Furthermore, the definitions imply that ckj = cjk, rkj = rjk, cjj = sj2, and rjj = 1.
With these definitions, the transpose of the sample mean vector is
x ¢ = ( x1 , x2 ,.., xp )
where cii = si2. This is also sometimes called the sample dispersion matrix, and
it measures the amount of variation in the sample as well as the extent to
which the p variables are correlated. It is an estimate of the population cova-
riance matrix
 = ÍÍ . . . ˙
˙
Í . . . ˙
Ís p1 s p 2 .. s pp ˙
Î ˚
È1 r12 .. r1p ˘
Í ˙
Í r21 1 .. r2 p ˙
R = ÍÍ . . . ˙
˙
Í . . . ˙
Ír rp 2 .. 1 ˙˙
ÍÎ p1 ˚
the variables are coded by subtracting the sample mean and dividing by the
sample standard deviation, then the coded values will have a mean of zero
and a standard deviation of one for each variable. In that case, the sample
covariance matrix will equal the sample correlation matrix, i.e., C = R.
References
Harville, D.A. (1997), Matrix Algebra from a Statistician’s Perspective, Springer,
New York.
Healy, M.J.R. (1986), Matrices for Statistics, Clarendon Press, Oxford.
Namboodiri, K. (1984), Matrix Algebra: an Introduction, Sage Publications, Thousand
Oaks, CA.
Searle, S.R. (1982), Matrix Algebra Useful to Statisticians, Wiley, New York.
chapter three
Displaying multivariate
data
3.1 The problem of displaying many variables
in two dimensions
Graphs must be displayed in two dimensions either on paper or on a com-
puter screen. It is therefore straightforward to show one variable plotted on
a vertical axis against a second variable plotted on a horizontal axis. For
example, Figure 3.1 shows the alar extent plotted against the total length for
the 49 female sparrows measured by Hermon Bumpus in his study of natural
selection (Table 1.1). Such plots allow one or more other characteristics of
the objects being studied to be shown as well. For example, in the case of
Bumpus’s sparrows, survival and nonsurvival are also indicated.
It is considerably more complicated to show one variable plotted against
another two, but still possible. Thus Figure 3.2 shows beak and head lengths
(as a single variable) plotted against total lengths and alar lengths for the 49
sparrows. Again, different symbols are used for survivors and nonsurvivors.
It is not possible to show one variable plotted against another three at
the same time in some extension of a three-dimensional plot. Hence there is
a major problem in showing in a simple way the relationships that exist
between the individual objects in a multivariate set of data where those
objects are each described by four or more variables. Various solutions to
this problem have been proposed and are discussed in this chapter.
27
28 Multivariate Statistical Methods: A Primer, Third Edition
255
245
240
235
230
225
150 155 160 165
Total Length (mm)
Survivor Nonsurvivor
Figure 3.1 Alar extent plotted against total length for the 49 female sparrows mea-
sured by Hermon Bumpus.
34
Length of Beak & Head
33
32
31
165
235
240 160
245 155 Total
Alar Extent 250 Length
150
255
Figure 3.2 The length of the beak and head plotted against the total length and alar
extent (all measured in millimeters) for the 49 female sparrows measured by Hermon
Bumpus (• = survivor, ο = nonsurvivor).
49
Bird
1
166
Length
150
255
Alar
225
34
Bk & Hd
30
20
Humerus
17
24
Sternum
18
1 49 150 166 225 255 30 34 17 20 18 24
Bird Length Alar Bk & Hd Humerus Sternum
Figure 3.3 Draftsman’s plot of the bird number and five variables measured (in
millimeters) on 49 female sparrows. The variables are the total length, the alar extent,
the length of the beak and head, the length of the humerus, and the length of the
keel of the sternum (• = survivor, ο = nonsurvivor). Only the extreme values are
shown on each scale.
THE END
Typographical errors corrected by
the etext transcriber:
Futhermore=> Furthermore {pg 73}
Oh que bonitas=> Oh qué bonitas
{pg 179}
a desert=> a dessert {pg 185}
she as giving=> she was giving {pg
210}
exclaims her hushand=> exclaims
her husband {pg 261}
innocent midemeanor=> innocent
misdemeanor {pg 272}
of preoccuption while=> of
preoccupation while {pg 281}
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