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research design

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Daniel Getachew
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8 views

research design

Uploaded by

Daniel Getachew
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Summary

Mini-grids are considered as a viable option for increasing access to electricity in rural areas
where grid-extension is unfeasible. To that end, designing, sizing and economic analysis of
mini-grids requires knowledge of electricity use behavior. In the absence of actual operating mini
grids, electricity usage is estimated through appliance data collected via interviews. In the
presence of deployed mini girds, actual load data of operating mini-grids has been shown to be a
better predictor of future consumption than surveys [1]. In the case of Ethiopia, to the best of our
knowledge, there is no measured load profiles from mini-grids. As of October, 2019, according
to [2], there are two mini-grids in operation: Ethio Resource Group in Amhara region (operating
for two years as of 2019) and Rensys Engineering and Trading PLC in Amhara and Tigray
Region (1 operating for three years as of 2019 and 4 others under construction).

In this research, we will try to answer two key questions:


(1) What is the daily consumption behavior of the various end-uses of energy (households and
customers with economic activities)? To address this question, we will develop measured daily
load profiles for two selected mini-grids, one from each operating company. Hourly load profile
will be developed for the entire mini-grid, households and productive/economic use customers.
(2) How has the consumption of electricity evolved among these newly-electrified customers?
To address this question, we will conduct a longitudinal analysis for the mini-grid customers
over the years since they have been connected from their electricity bills that will be obtained
form the mini-grid company.

The results from this research can be used by the operating company to adjust or confirm prior
hourly load profile estimates and by new firms to accurately size their systems. Additionally, it
will be used to determine which types of business are best suited for operation at the time the
loads occur. Finally, this data can be used to better understand what types of productive uses and
businesses are currently operating in rural villages and how and when are they operated.

Research Design
Research Objective 1: Developing hourly load profiles
In this research, load measurements will be conducted at three levels; households, customers
with economic/productive use and the entire mini-grid. For this purpose, we will use Fluke 345
Power Quality Clamp Meter which can be clamped around a conductor and measure the true root
mean square (trms) current. These measured current values will be converted into power using
nominal voltage value of 230V and power factor of 0.85. Voltage measurements will also be
conducted at various locations to see if it is consistent with the nominal value.

Measuring load profile for households

Where it is unfeasible to conduct measurements with all the mini-grid customers, ___ customers
will be chosen who are most likely a representative. The selection of customers takes into
account their estimated socio-economic status and on geographical location. To capture socio-
economic diversity of the customers, we will visually assess the customer's house, household
size (in terms of occupants), years since electricity was connected, farm size (in ha) and quantity
of livestock. alongside discussions with a local guide. To capture variation in geographic
location, customers both on the perimeter and at the center of the mini-grid will be included. For
the selected sample, measurements will be conducted at each household. The minimum,
maximum and average TRMS current will be stored every minute for seven days.

For customers with economic activities, measurement will be conducted for seven days. We plan
to make measurement for all customers in this category.

Measuring load profile for the entire mini-grid taken for seven days in order to capture any
differences between weekdays and the weekend.

Research Objective 2

In this research, we will try to answer two key questions: (1) we will develop measured daily
load profiles in two selected mini-grids: one from each operating company. Hourly load profile
will be developed for the entire mini-grid, households and productive/economic use customers.
(2) how consumption has evolved among these newly-electrified customers. In this paper, we
address this by conducting a longitudinal analysis for 136k utility customers across Kenya over
six years of electricity bills, uncovering critical trends in spatio-temporal evolution of electricity
consumption.

To tease out underline behaviors, the data was decomposed using


two methods: by calendar date and by duration since customer electricity
connection. For the former, post-paid billing dates are used to
aggregate consumption by calendar month. For the latter, the number
of months since a customer established their electricity connection is
used to group customers. Most of our analysis uses this latter characterization,
which aims to provide insight into growth of consumption
by the duration of customers’ experience with access to electricity. To forecast the electricity
demand, we will develop a consumption model of the identified area using scatter plot and line
of best fit method from historical consumption data that is assumed to be obtained from
Ethiopian Electric Utility (EEU) taking 2010 a base year and spanning _____years.

Incidence of load profiles in the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)

The levelized cost of electricity is defined as the total cost per year (capex per year + opex per
year) divided by the total energy produced per year (kWh/year). Since capex is expressed as an a
capital cost at the beginning of the project period, to calculate the capex per year, we will use
project lifetime of 20 years and discount rate to be evaluated from the nominal discount rate
(obtained from the world bank to be ___ for Ethiopia), the expected inflation rate (obtained from
the world bank to be ___ for Ethiopia) and the real discount rate.

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