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amazon2017research

amazon2017research

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leafko
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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17 April 2017

Americas/United States
Equity Research
Consumer Internet

Amazon com Inc. (AMZN)


Rating OUTPERFORM
Price (13-Apr-17, US$) 884.67 INCREASE TARGET PRICE
Target price (US$) (from 900.00) 1050.00
52-week price range (US$) 909.28 - 602.00
Market cap (US$ m) 422,826.64
Recalibration of Model Following Annual
Target price is for 12 months.
Research Analysts
Report Yields Higher FCF Estimates
Stephen Ju ■ Event: We preview Amazon's 1Q17 results – we have increased our price
212 325 8662
[email protected]
target objective for AMZN shares to $1,050 versus prior $900 as we
Christopher Ford
recalibrate our model following the annual disclosure of balance sheet and
212 538 8446 cash flow items for AWS as well as the e-commerce operations. Our FY17
[email protected] EPS estimate is now $11.30 vs. prior $12.08.
■ Investment Case: Although our operating profit estimates for 2Q17 & 3Q17
decrease as we take into account Amazon's ongoing investments into
content, fulfillment centers, and data centers, the strategic and product-
driven rationale behind these should already be well-familiar to investors. As
far as we are concerned, this push to invest serves as positive demand
indicators across its consumer and enterprise-facing businesses. As we have
previously called out, we believe that Amazon will report a second derivative
change in its operating margin, i.e. the amount of margin compression as
implied in the 2Q17 guidance will start to abate as it has established a
pattern of investing (in either fulfillment centers or data centers) and growing
into the larger infrastructure. We maintain our Outperform rating and our
updated investment thesis for AMZN shares is predicated on the following
longer-term factors 1) re-establishment of e-commerce segment operating
margin expansion as Amazon grows into its larger infrastructure, 2) ongoing
margin benefit due to shipping loss moderation, and 3) upward bias to AWS
revenue forecasts and likely more moderate deceleration path as suggested
by ongoing capital intensity in the business.
■ Valuation: We maintain our Outperform rating and our DCF-based target
price which is based on a 10.5% WACC and 3% terminal growth is now
$1,050 vs. prior $900. Higher-than-expected capital intensity for either the e-
commerce platform or AWS is a risk to our estimates.
Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics
Year 12/16A 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E
900
EPS (Excl. ESO) (US$) 11.54 11.30 15.97 22.47
800 EPS (CS adj., ) 11.54 11.30 15.97 22.47
700
Prev. EPS (CS adj., US$) - 12.08 16.39 22.58
P/E (CS adj.) (x) 76.7 78.3 55.4 39.4
600 P/E rel. (CS adj., %) 376.1 421.9 335.0 262.6
Ju l - 1 6 O ct - 1 6 Jan - 1 7 Apr- 17 Revenue (US$ m) 135,987.0 160,438.3 190,817.6 224,968.7
EBITDA (US$ m) 12,303.0 14,713.4 20,868.0 28,654.6
A M ZN .O Q S& P 5 0 0 IN D EX
Net Debt (US$ m) -11,640 -20,133 -33,482 -53,175
On 13-Apr-2017 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2328.95 OCFPS (US$) 33.83 42.96 54.67 68.71
Daily Apr15, 2016 - Apr13, 2017, 04/15/16 = US$625.89 P/OCF (x) 22.2 20.6 16.2 12.9
Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Number of shares (m) 477.95 Price/Sales (x) 3.01
2016A 2.39 3.51 2.21 3.44 BV/share (Next Qtr., US$) 44.2 P/BVPS (x) 19.7
2017E 2.35 2.84 2.44 3.66 Net debt (Next Qtr., US$ m) 3,846.1 Dividend (current, US$) -
2018E 3.21 3.90 3.57 5.28 Dividend yield (%) -
Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST
CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit
Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware
that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report
as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
17 April 2017

Amazon com Inc. (AMZN)


Price (13 Apr 2017): US$884.67; Rating: OUTPERFORM; Target Price: (from US$900.00) US$1,050.00; Analyst: Stephen Ju
Income Statement 12/16A 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E Company Background
Revenue (US$ m) 135,987.0 160,438.3 190,817.6 224,968.7 Amazon.com is a customer-centric company for 3 primary customer
Sales 135,987.0 160,438.3 190,817.6 224,968.7 sets: consumers, sellers & enterprises. In addition, it generates
EBITDA 12,303.0 14,713.4 20,868.0 28,654.6 revenue through other marketing and promotional services, such as
Operating profit 4,186.0 3,440.1 6,277.6 10,564.0 online advertising, and co-branded credit card agreements.
Recurring profit 3,892.0 2,991.5 5,816.6 10,099.9
Cash Flow 12/16A 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E Blue/Grey Sky Scenario
Cash flow from operations 16,442 21,099 27,306 34,904
CAPEX (6,736) (7,445) (7,817) (8,130)
Free cashflow to the firm 9,706 13,654 19,489 26,774
Cash flow from investments (9,876) (7,445) (7,817) (8,130)
Net share issue(/repurchase) 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid 0 0 0 0
Issuance (retirement) of debt - - - -
Other (2,370) (5,161) (6,140) (7,081)
Cashflow from financing activities (2,370) (5,161) (6,140) (7,081)
Effect of exchange rates (211) 0 0 0
Changes in Net Cash/Debt 3,985 8,493 13,349 19,693
Net debt at end (11,640) (20,133) (33,482) (53,175)
Balance Sheet ($US) 12/16A 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E
Assets
Other current assets 6,647 6,647 6,647 6,647
Total current assets 45,781 57,110 73,878 97,269
Total assets 83,402 97,526 117,749 142,359
Liabilities
Short-term debt 0 0 0 0
Total current liabilities 43,816 52,503 62,470 73,637
Long-term debt 7,694 7,694 7,694 7,694
Total liabilities 64,117 70,903 82,903 96,069
Shareholder equity 19,285 26,623 34,846 46,290
Total liabilities and equity 83,402 97,526 117,749 142,359
Net debt (11,640) (20,133) (33,482) (53,175) Our Blue Sky Scenario (US$) (from 1230.00)
1400.00
Per share 12/16A 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E
We have also elected to run a blue sky/grey sky scenario for AMZN
No. of shares (wtd avg) 486 491 499 508 shares using historic Free Cash Flow Yield on next twelve month
CS adj. EPS 11.54 11.30 15.97 22.47
estimates – AMZN shares have traded in a range of ~1.7%-4.0%
Prev. EPS (US$) - 12.08 16.39 22.58
with an average of ~2.6% and a standard deviation of ~0.6%. In
Dividend (US$) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
terms of upside potential, we think of where we are going to be at
Free cash flow per share 19.97 27.80 39.02 52.71
the end of 2017, we apply a 2.0% to our 2018 FCF of $13.6 billion
Earnings 12/16A 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E and derive a blue sky scenario of $1400.
Sales growth (%) 27.1 18.0 18.9 17.9
EBIT growth (%) 87.5 (17.8) 82.5 68.3
Net profit growth (%) 82.8 (1.0) 43.8 43.0 Our Grey Sky Scenario (US$) (from 615.00) 700.00
EPS growth (%) 83.4 (2.1) 41.4 40.6 In terms of downside potential, we apply a peak FCF Yield of 4.0%
EBIT margin (%) 3.1 2.1 3.3 4.7 to our 2018 FCF estimate of $13.6 billion, and we derive a grey sky
scenario of $700.
Valuation 12/16A 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E
EV/Sales (x) 3.02 2.51 2.04 1.64 Share price performance
EV/EBIT (x) 98.2 117.1 62.0 35.0
P/E (x) 76.7 78.3 55.4 39.4
Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 900
2016A 2.39 3.51 2.21 3.44
2017E 2.35 2.84 2.44 3.66 800
2018E 3.21 3.90 3.57 5.28
700

600
Ju l - 1 6 O ct - 1 6 Jan - 1 7 Apr- 1 7

A M ZN .O Q S& P 5 0 0 IN D EX

On 13-Apr-2017 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2328.95


Daily Apr15, 2016 - Apr13, 2017, 04/15/16 = US$625.89

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates

Amazon com Inc. (AMZN) 2


17 April 2017

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) – Recalibration of Model


Following Annual Report Yields Higher FCF
Estimates
We have increased our price target objective for AMZN shares from $900 to $1,050 as we
once again recalibrate our model following the annual disclosure of balance sheet and
cash flow items for AWS as well as the e-commerce operations.
Setting aside the impact from foreign exchange rates, the fundamental changes to our
model include the following items:
 Moderated long-term deceleration path for AWS growth – AWS rolled through
price cuts in specific products during 4Q16 which should see full impact to
revenue growth for 1Q17-3Q17; 4Q17 should directionally accelerate sequentially
from 3Q17 all things being equal
 Decreased the trajectory of increase in our Technology and Content expense
projections – while our T&C expense projection for AWS remain at ~$11b for
2017, our forecast for the balance of the businesses has decreased modestly to
$7.6b vs. prior $8.0b (versus $5.9b in 2016)
 Updated asset base for both AWS and e-commerce operations as disclosed in
the 10-k, as well as the mix of CapEx (in-cash-flow-statement versus acquired via
capital lease and acquired via other other leases)
The net result of the above changes are summarized in the table below for 1Q17, 2017,
and 2018 – as is our usual practice we isolate the delta due to FX versus fundamentals:

Figure 1: Amazon.com Inc. – CS Estimate Changes


in millions, unless otherwise stated
1Q17 1Q17 % 1Q17 % 2017 2017 % 2017 % 2018 2018 % 2018 %
Prior FX Only Δ Current Δ Prior FX Only Δ Current Δ Prior FX Only Δ Current Δ
Media 5866.4 5805.8 -1.0% 5822.2 -0.8% 24876.4 24715.1 -0.6% 24670.3 -0.8% 25836.3 25670.4 -0.6% 25624.4 -0.8%
EGM 24782.7 24607.5 -0.7% 24654.2 -0.5% 117731.3 117214.5 -0.4% 117073.8 -0.6% 141610.8 140982.0 -0.4% 140811.0 -0.6%
AWS 3528.3 3528.3 0.0% 3528.3 0.0% 16801.1 16801.1 0.0% 16977.9 1.1% 22261.5 22261.5 0.0% 22495.8 1.1%
Other 361.4 360.2 -0.3% 360.6 -0.2% 1721.0 1717.3 -0.2% 1716.3 -0.3% 1893.0 1887.5 -0.3% 1886.5 -0.3%
Net Revenue 34538.8 34301.7 -0.7% 34365.3 -0.5% 161129.8 160448.0 -0.4% 160438.3 -0.4% 191601.6 190801.5 -0.4% 190817.6 -0.4%
Cost of Revenue 21875.0 21706.7 -0.8% 21751.8 -0.6% 102617.2 102136.2 -0.5% 101995.7 -0.6% 119328.3 118770.1 -0.5% 118531.1 -0.7%
Gross Profit 12663.8 12595.0 -0.5% 12613.5 -0.4% 58512.6 58311.8 -0.3% 58442.6 -0.1% 72273.3 72031.4 -0.3% 72286.4 0.0%
CSOI 1331.8 1314.6 -1.3% 1433.0 7.6% 7630.5 7573.3 -0.7% 7060.7 -7% 10795.5 10720.6 -0.7% 10505.3 -3%
Adjusted EBITDA 3900.4 3883.2 -0.4% 3919.6 0.5% 19050.2 18993.0 -0.3% 18167.9 -4.6% 25287.7 25212.7 -0.3% 24929.6 -1.4%
Pro Forma EPS $2.12 $2.09 -1.2% $2.35 11.0% $12.08 $11.99 -0.7% $11.30 -6.4% $16.39 $16.28 -0.7% $15.97 -2.5%

Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates

Although our operating profit and CSOI estimate for 2Q17 and 3Q17 decrease as we take
into account Amazon's ongoing investments into content, fulfillment centers, and data
centers, as we have noted previously the strategic and product-driven rationale behind
these should already be well-familiar to investors. And as far as we are concerned, this
push to invest should serve as positive demand indicators across its consumer and
enterprise-facing businesses.
Furthermore, as we have called out before, we believe that Amazon will report a second
derivative change in its operating margin. In other words, the amount of margin
compression as implied in the 2Q17 guidance will start to abate as the company has
established a pattern of investing (in either fulfillment centers or data centers) and growing
into the larger infrastructure.
And our long-term investment thesis for AMZN shares remain the following:
 Re-establishment of e-commerce segment operating margin expansion as
Amazon grows into its larger infrastructure

Amazon com Inc. (AMZN) 3


17 April 2017

 Ongoing margin benefit due to shipping loss moderation


 Upward bias to AWS revenue forecasts and likely more moderate deceleration
path as suggested by ongoing capital intensity in the business

Changes to Estimates
Looking nearer-term, the quarterly key metrics for Amazon are growth in North American
and International Media, EGM, as well as AWS revenue, FX-neutral growth rates, as well
as core e-commerce gross profit dollars as well as CSOI. Our estimates for 1Q17 are as
shown below:

Figure 2: Amazon.com, Inc. – Quarterly North Figure 3: Amazon.com, Inc. – Quarterly North
America Media Revenue and Year Over Year Growth America EGM Revenue and FX-Neutral Year Over
USD in millions Year Growth
USD in millions

4500 25% 25000 40%


35%
4000 21%
32% 35%
31% 31% 32%32%
3500 20% 20000 29% 29%
28% 28% 30%
27%
25% 25%
3000
25%
13% 14% 15% 15000 21%
2500 12% 12%
20%
2000 9% 9%
10% 10000
8% 15%
1500 7% 7%
5% 5% 5% 10%
1000 5% 5000
500 1% 5%
35132825246427343544296926202963393132082928323742083379 1064878298366879313529102501098711840173251351114459153272159016371
0 0% 0 0%
4Q13A
1Q14A
2Q14A
3Q14A
4Q14A
1Q15A
2Q15A
3Q15A
4Q15A
1Q16A
2Q16A
3Q16A
4Q16A
1Q17E

4Q13A
1Q14A
2Q14A
3Q14A
4Q14A
1Q15A
2Q15A
3Q15A
4Q15A
1Q16A
2Q16A
3Q16A
4Q16A
1Q17E
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates

We are forecasting North American Media revenue to grow at 5% year over year to reach
$3.38 billion in 1Q17 – this is versus the 7% growth for 4Q16 and 8% of a year ago. Our
projection for North American EGM revenue is $16.4 billion in 1Q17, which reflects a 21%
growth rate. This is versus 25% for 4Q16 and 32% of a year ago.

Amazon com Inc. (AMZN) 4


17 April 2017

Figure 4: Amazon.com, Inc. – Quarterly International Figure 5: Amazon.com, Inc. – Quarterly International
Media Revenue and FX-Neutral Year Over Year EGM Revenue and FX-Neutral Year Over Year
Growth Growth
USD in millions USD in millions

4000 10% 12000 40%


9% 36% 36%
3500 32% 33% 35%
8% 10000 31% 31%
7% 7% 7%
3000 28% 30%
6% 6% 26%
5% 6% 8000
2500 23% 25%
21% 21%
4% 4% 20%
19% 19%
2000 3% 3% 3% 4% 6000 20%

2%
1500 15%
2% 4000
1000 10%

-1% 0% 2000
500 5%
37142642238025103406232020942320329224802283249133772443 647851884912516071095378542559018491703475048056105148283
0 -2% 0 0%
4Q13A
1Q14A
2Q14A
3Q14A
4Q14A
1Q15A
2Q15A
3Q15A
4Q15A
1Q16A
2Q16A
3Q16A
4Q16A
1Q17E

4Q13A
1Q14A
2Q14A
3Q14A
4Q14A
1Q15A
2Q15A
3Q15A
4Q15A
1Q16A
2Q16A
3Q16A
4Q16A
1Q17E
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates

We are forecasting International Media to grow by 3.3% year over year on an FX-neutral
basis to reach $2.44 billion in 1Q17; this is versus the 7% growth for 4Q16 and 9% of a
year ago. Our projection for International EGM revenue is $8.28 billion in 1Q17, which
reflects 22.5% growth on an FX-neutral basis – this compares to 28% for 4Q16 and 33%
of a year ago.

Figure 6: Amazon.com, Inc. – Quarterly AWS Figure 7: Amazon.com, Inc. – Quarterly Net Revenue
Revenue and Year Over Year Growth and Year Over Year Growth
USD in millions USD in millions

4000 90% 50000 35%


81%
78% 31%
80% 45000 29%
3500 28% 30%
69% 69%
70% 40000 22%
3000 64%
23% 23% 23% 25%
56% 58% 35000 22%
55% 60% 20% 20%
2500 49% 20%
47% 47% 30000 18% 20%
43% 43% 50%
2000 38% 25000 15% 15%
40% 15%
20000
1500
30%
15000 10%
1000
20% 10000
500 5%
10% 5000
966 1050100511691420156618242085240525662886323135363528 2558719741193402057929328227172318525358357472912830404327144374134365
0 0% 0 0%
4Q13A
1Q14A
2Q14A
3Q14A
4Q14A
1Q15A
2Q15A
3Q15A
4Q15A
1Q16A
2Q16A
3Q16A
4Q16A
1Q17E

4Q13A
1Q14A
2Q14A
3Q14A
4Q14A
1Q15A
2Q15A
3Q15A
4Q15A
1Q16A
2Q16A
3Q16A
4Q16A
1Q17E

Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates

For AWS we are forecasting revenue to grow 38% to reach $3.53 billion in 4Q16 – this is
versus the 47% growth for 4Q16 and 64% of a year ago.

Amazon com Inc. (AMZN) 5


17 April 2017

Figure 8: Amazon.com, Inc. – Quarterly Core E- Figure 9: Amazon.com, Inc. – Quarterly


Commerce Gross Profit and Margin Consolidated Segment Operating Income and
USD in millions Margin
USD in millions

12000 35% 12000 35%


30% 30%
29% 29% 29% 29%
28% 29% 28% 28% 30% 28% 29% 28% 28% 30%
10000 27% 27% 27% 27% 10000 27% 27% 27% 27%
26% 26%
25% 25% 25% 25%
25% 25%
8000 8000

20% 20%
6000 6000
15% 15%

4000 4000
10% 10%

2000 2000
5% 5%
581546364936478372375756620165189001769683388223112479085 581546364936478372375756620165189001769683388223112479085
0 0% 0 0%
4Q13A
1Q14A
2Q14A
3Q14A
4Q14A
1Q15A
2Q15A
3Q15A
4Q15A
1Q16A
2Q16A
3Q16A
4Q16A
1Q17E

4Q13A
1Q14A
2Q14A
3Q14A
4Q14A
1Q15A
2Q15A
3Q15A
4Q15A
1Q16A
2Q16A
3Q16A
4Q16A
1Q17E
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates

Adding it all up, our net revenue forecast for 1Q17 stands at $34.4 billion, which reflects
18% growth. Once again we have conservatively modeled only modest year over year
gross margin expansion for the core e-commerce franchise and our CSOI estimate stands
at 1.43 billion.
Our estimates versus consensus for revenue and adjusted EBITDA are as shown below
for 1Q17, FY17, FY18.

Figure 10: Amazon.com, Inc. – Credit Suisse vs. Consensus Estimates


1Q17 FY17 FY18
CS Consensus % Diff CS Consensus % Diff CS Consensus % Diff
Revenue 34365.3 35303.0 -2.7% 160438.3 165246.0 -2.9% 190817.6 199551.0 -4.4%
Adjusted EBITDA 3919.6 4085.0 -4.0% 18167.9 19392.0 -6.3% 24929.6 24850.0 0.3%
Adjusted EPS $2.35 $2.28 2.9% $11.30 $12.62 -10.5% $15.97 $18.12 -11.9%

Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONALTM service

Valuation
In-line with the valuation methodology we have used with the rest of our coverage
universe, we have based our target price on DCF, which now suggests $1,050 vs. prior
$900 as we modify our estimates. We have used a weighted average cost of capital of
10.5% and a terminal growth rate expectation of 3%.

Amazon com Inc. (AMZN) 6


17 April 2017

Figure 11: Amazon.com, Inc. – Discounted Cash Flow Analysis


US$ in millions, unless otherwise stated
CAGR
2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E '17-'22
EBITDA 14713.4 20868.0 28654.6 38945.2 51607.6 66903.3 35.4%
Net Income 1828.6 3645.5 6402.7 10657.1 16339.9 23551.2 66.7%
Depreciation & Amortization 11273.3 14590.4 18090.6 21823.6 25718.2 29947.4 21.6%
Other Non-Cash Charges (Benefits) 2146.0 2523.1 2940.2 3356.2 3794.2 4247.5 14.6%
Interest Expense (Income) 448.5 461.1 464.1 416.4 363.8 239.6
Changes in Operating Assets & Liabilities 5851.2 6547.2 7470.7 8258.7 9045.3 9769.5 10.8%
Unlevered Cash Flows 21547.6 27767.2 35368.3 44512.0 55261.5 67755.2 25.8%
Capital Expenditures 15506.6 16747.0 17953.1 19104.2 20179.5 21158.8 6.4%
Unlevered Free Cash Flows 6041.0 11020.2 17415.2 25407.9 35081.9 46596.4 50.5%
Y/Y % Change 90.2% 82.4% 58.0% 45.9% 38.1% 32.8%

Weighted Average Cost of Capital 10.5%


Perpetual UFCF Growth Rate ("G") 3.0%

2017E
NPV of Unlevered Free Cash Flows 100923
Present Value of Terminal Value 388434
Enterprise Value 489357
Off-Balance Sheet Assets 0
Adjusted Enterprise Value 489357
Year End Net Debt (Cash) (26780)
Equity Value 516137
Diluted Shares Outstanding 491.1
Equity Value Per Share $1051
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates

As previously noted, we have elected to add as capital expenditure Amazon's spend


financed by capital and financing leases and the corresponding amounts outstanding on
the long-term liabilities disclosed on the balance sheet as part of net debt.
We have also elected to run a blue sky/grey sky scenario for AMZN shares using historic
Free Cash Flow Yield on next twelve month estimates – AMZN shares have traded in a
range of ~1.7%-4.0% with an average of ~2.6% and a standard deviation of ~0.6%. As we
think about where we will be at the end of 2017, we apply a high end FCF Yield of 4% to
our 2018 FCF estimate of $13.6 billion, and we derive a grey sky scenario of $700. In
terms of upside potential, we apply a 2.0% FCF Yield (average less one standard
deviation) to the same and derive a blue sky scenario of $1,400.

Amazon com Inc. (AMZN) 7


17 April 2017

Figure 12: Amazon.com, Inc. – Historical FCF Yield

4.0%

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%
May-14

May-15

May-16
Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17
Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17
Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16
Source: Credit Suisse estimates, Thomson Reuters Datastream

Risks to our price target for AMZN shares include the following factors:
 Rise in competitive intensity from any number of Amazon's online e-commerce
and offline retail competitors
 Higher-than-expected capital intensity for either the e-commerce platform or
AWS, which will negatively impact our free cash flow estimates
 Deterioration in consumer sentiment, which can negatively impact transaction
velocity
 Greater-than-expected price cuts for AWS, which we currently project at ~20%
year over year

Amazon com Inc. (AMZN) 8


17 April 2017

Figure 13: Amazon.com Inc. – Quarterly Income Statement


US$ in millions, unless otherwise stated
2016A 2017E 2018E
1Q16A 2Q16A 3Q16A 4Q16A 1Q17E 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E 1Q18E 2Q18E 3Q18E 4Q18E
Total Net Sales 29128.0 30404.0 32714.0 43741.0 34365.3 35723.0 38592.2 51757.9 40828.5 42609.5 46028.6 61350.9
Cost of Sales 18866.0 19180.0 21260.0 28958.0 21751.8 21989.0 24287.6 33967.4 25255.4 25613.5 28278.8 39383.4
Gross Profit 10262.0 11224.0 11454.0 14783.0 12613.5 13734.0 14304.7 17790.5 15573.1 16996.0 17749.8 21967.6
Operating Expenses:
Fulfillment 3687.0 3878.0 4335.0 5719.0 5006.7 5285.1 5716.5 7104.2 6017.0 6349.4 6848.6 8433.5
Marketing 1436.0 1546.0 1738.0 2513.0 1681.7 1740.2 1900.0 2671.0 1898.7 1971.3 2152.4 3014.5
Technology and Content 3526.0 3880.0 4135.0 4545.0 4539.2 4955.9 5309.2 5831.2 5650.6 6143.4 6550.3 7135.1
General Administrative 497.0 580.0 639.0 717.0 726.2 755.9 768.1 845.5 862.3 900.0 914.6 1001.0
Amortization of Goodwill and Other Intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Remeasurements and Other 45.0 55.0 32.0 34.0 45.0 55.0 32.0 34.0 45.0 55.0 32.0 34.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Operating Expenses 9191.0 9939.0 10879.0 13528.0 11998.7 12792.1 13725.8 16485.8 14473.6 15419.2 16497.9 19618.1
Income From Operations 1071.0 1285.0 575.0 1255.0 614.8 941.9 578.8 1304.6 1099.5 1576.8 1251.9 2349.5
Interest Income 21.0 24.0 26.0 30.0 23.4 17.3 18.4 21.4 31.0 24.0 26.2 30.5
Interest Expense 117.0 116.0 118.0 133.0 128.0 131.0 133.4 136.5 139.0 141.8 144.0 148.0
Other Income (Expense), Net 81.0 (14.0) 8.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Non-Operating Income (Expense), Net (15.0) (106.0) (84.0) (89.0) (104.6) (113.7) (115.0) (115.1) (108.0) (117.8) (117.9) (117.5)
Pretax Income 1056.0 1179.0 491.0 1166.0 510.1 828.1 463.8 1189.5 991.5 1459.0 1134.0 2232.0
Income Tax 475.0 307.0 229.0 414.0 181.1 294.0 164.7 422.4 352.0 518.0 402.6 792.5
Cumulative Effect of Change in Accounting Principle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Equity-Method Investment Activity, Net of Tax 68.0 15.0 10.0 3.0 71.4 15.8 10.5 3.2 75.0 16.5 11.0 3.3
Net Income (Loss) 513.0 857.0 252.0 749.0 257.6 518.3 288.6 764.0 564.5 924.4 720.4 1436.2

Basic EPS to Common $1.09 $1.81 $0.53 $1.57 $0.54 $1.08 $0.60 $1.58 $1.16 $1.89 $1.47 $2.92
Basic Shares Outstanding 471.0 473.0 474.0 476.0 478.0 480.0 482.1 484.1 486.1 488.2 490.2 492.3
Diluted EPS $1.05 $1.78 $0.52 $1.54 $0.53 $1.06 $0.59 $1.55 $1.14 $1.85 $1.44 $2.86
Shares Outstanding 490.0 482.8 485.0 486.0 488.1 490.1 492.2 494.3 496.3 498.4 500.5 502.6

EBITDA Reconciliation
GAAP Operating Income 1071.0 1285.0 575.0 1255.0 614.8 941.9 578.8 1304.6 1099.5 1576.8 1251.9 2349.5
Depreciation and Amortization of PP&E 1827.0 1909.0 2084.0 2297.0 2531.6 2715.9 2905.0 3120.7 3338.5 3537.1 3741.0 3973.7
EBITDA 2898.0 3194.0 2659.0 3552.0 3146.4 3657.7 3483.8 4425.4 4438.0 5113.9 4992.9 6323.2
Nonrecurring Items 45.0 55.0 32.0 34.0 45.0 55.0 32.0 34.0 45.0 55.0 32.0 34.0
Amortization of Goodwill and Other Intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stock-Based Compensation 544.0 768.0 776.0 887.0 773.2 803.8 868.3 1009.3 908.4 948.1 1024.1 1181.0
Pro Forma Operating Income - CSOI 1660.0 2108.0 1383.0 2176.0 1433.0 1800.6 1479.1 2347.9 2052.9 2579.9 2308.0 3564.5
Adjusted EBITDA 3442.0 3962.0 3435.0 4439.0 3919.6 4461.5 4352.2 5434.7 5346.4 6062.0 6017.0 7504.3

Pro forma Net Income Reconciliation


Pro Forma Operating Income 1660.0 2108.0 1383.0 2176.0 1433.0 1800.6 1479.1 2347.9 2052.9 2579.9 2308.0 3564.5
Interest Income 21.0 24.0 26.0 30.0 23.4 17.3 18.4 21.4 31.0 24.0 26.2 30.5
Interest Expense 117.0 116.0 118.0 133.0 128.0 131.0 133.4 136.5 139.0 141.8 144.0 148.0
Other Income (Expense), Net 81.0 (14.0) 8.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Non-Operating Income (Expense), Net (15.0) (106.0) (84.0) (89.0) (104.6) (113.7) (115.0) (115.1) (108.0) (117.8) (117.9) (117.5)
Pretax Income 1645.0 2002.0 1299.0 2087.0 1328.3 1686.9 1364.1 2232.8 1944.9 2462.1 2190.2 3447.0
GAAP Income Tax Expense (Benefit) 475.0 307.0 229.0 414.0 181.1 294.0 164.7 422.4 352.0 518.0 402.6 792.5
Income Tax Adjustment 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pro Forma Net Income 1170.0 1695.0 1070.0 1673.0 1147.2 1392.8 1199.4 1810.5 1592.9 1944.0 1787.5 2654.5

Adjusted EPS - Diluted $2.39 $3.51 $2.21 $3.44 $2.35 $2.84 $2.44 $3.66 $3.21 $3.90 $3.57 $5.28

Y/Y % Change
Total Net Sales 28.2% 31.1% 29.0% 22.4% 18.0% 17.5% 18.0% 18.3% 18.8% 19.3% 19.3% 18.5%
Cost of Sales 22.5% 26.5% 26.9% 19.0% 15.3% 14.6% 14.2% 17.3% 16.1% 16.5% 16.4% 15.9%
Gross Profit 40.2% 39.9% 33.1% 29.6% 22.9% 22.4% 24.9% 20.3% 23.5% 23.8% 24.1% 23.5%
Total Operating Expenses 30.1% 31.5% 32.7% 31.4% 30.5% 28.7% 26.2% 21.9% 20.6% 20.5% 20.2% 19.0%
Income From Operations 320.0% 176.9% 41.6% 13.3% -42.6% -26.7% 0.7% 4.0% 78.8% 67.4% 116.3% 80.1%
Pretax Income 4928.6% 225.7% 98.8% 24.3% -51.7% -29.8% -5.5% 2.0% 94.4% 76.2% 144.5% 87.6%
Net Income (Loss) -1000.0% 831.5% 219.0% 55.4% -49.8% -39.5% 14.5% 2.0% 119.1% 78.3% 149.6% 88.0%

Margins
Gross Margin 35.2% 36.9% 35.0% 33.8% 36.7% 38.4% 37.1% 34.4% 38.1% 39.9% 38.6% 35.8%
GAAP Operating Margin 3.7% 4.2% 1.8% 2.9% 1.8% 2.6% 1.5% 2.5% 2.7% 3.7% 2.7% 3.8%
Pro Forma Operating Margin 5.7% 6.9% 4.2% 5.0% 4.2% 5.0% 3.8% 4.5% 5.0% 6.1% 5.0% 5.8%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin 11.8% 13.0% 10.5% 10.1% 11.4% 12.5% 11.3% 10.5% 13.1% 14.2% 13.1% 12.2%
Net Income Margin 1.8% 2.8% 0.8% 1.7% 0.7% 1.5% 0.7% 1.5% 1.4% 2.2% 1.6% 2.3%
Adjusted Net Income Margin 4.0% 5.6% 3.3% 3.8% 3.3% 3.9% 3.1% 3.5% 3.9% 4.6% 3.9% 4.3%

Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates

Amazon com Inc. (AMZN) 9


17 April 2017

Figure 14: Amazon.com Inc. – Annual Income Statement


US$ in millions, unless otherwise stated
CAGR
2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E '17-'22
Total Net Sales 107007.0 135987.0 160438.3 190817.6 224968.7 263008.7 304701.6 349765.5 16.9%
Cost of Sales 71651.0 88264.0 101995.7 118531.1 136736.1 156069.8 176390.0 197430.7
Gross Profit 35356.0 47723.0 58442.6 72286.4 88232.6 106938.9 128311.7 152334.9 21.1%
Operating Expenses:
Fulfillment 13411.0 17619.0 23112.5 27648.6 32595.8 37952.2 43641.0 49699.9
Marketing 5252.0 7233.0 7992.9 9036.9 10043.5 11019.1 12001.2 12895.5
Technology and Content 12542.0 16086.0 20635.4 25479.4 30592.4 35831.1 41163.6 46552.9
General Administrative 1747.0 2433.0 3095.8 3677.9 4271.0 4848.9 5450.4 6064.6
Amortization of Goodwill and Other Intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Remeasurements and Other 171.0 166.0 166.0 166.0 166.0 166.0 166.0 166.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Operating Expenses 33123.0 43537.0 55002.5 66008.8 77668.6 89817.4 102422.2 115378.9 16.0%
Income From Operations 2233.0 4186.0 3440.1 6277.6 10564.0 17121.5 25889.4 36956.0 60.8%
Interest Income 49.0 101.0 80.5 111.7 161.9 236.1 340.6 481.9
Interest Expense 460.0 484.0 529.0 572.8 626.0 652.5 704.5 721.5
Other Income (Expense), Net 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Non-Operating Income (Expense), Net (665.0) (294.0) (448.5) (461.1) (464.1) (416.4) (363.8) (239.6)
Pretax Income 1568.0 3892.0 2991.5 5816.6 10099.9 16705.1 25525.6 36716.3
Income Tax 951.0 1425.0 1062.2 2065.2 3586.1 5931.3 9063.1 13036.5
Cumulative Effect of Change in Accounting Principle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Equity-Method Investment Activity, Net of Tax 21.0 96.0 100.8 105.8 111.1 116.7 122.5 128.6
Net Income (Loss) 596.0 2371.0 1828.6 3645.5 6402.7 10657.1 16339.9 23551.2 66.7%

Basic EPS to Common $1.27 $5.01 $3.80 $7.45 $12.87 $21.06 $31.75 $45.00 63.9%
Basic Shares Outstanding 467.5 473.5 481.0 489.2 497.5 506.0 514.6 523.3
Diluted EPS $1.22 $4.88 $3.72 $7.30 $12.60 $20.63 $31.10 $44.08 63.9%
Shares Outstanding 487.5 486.0 491.1 499.5 508.0 516.6 525.4 534.3

EBITDA Reconciliation
GAAP Operating Income 2233.0 4186.0 3440.1 6277.6 10564.0 17121.5 25889.4 36956.0
Depreciation and Amortization of PP&E 6281.0 8117.0 11273.3 14590.4 18090.6 21823.6 25718.2 29947.4
EBITDA 8514.0 12303.0 14713.4 20868.0 28654.6 38945.2 51607.6 66903.3 35.4%
Nonrecurring Items 171.0 166.0 166.0 166.0 166.0 166.0 166.0 166.0
Amortization of Goodwill and Other Intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stock-Based Compensation 2120.0 2975.0 3454.6 4061.6 4733.1 5402.8 6107.9 6837.6
Pro Forma Operating Income - CSOI 4524.0 7327.0 7060.7 10505.3 15463.0 22690.3 32163.4 43959.5 44.2%
Adjusted EBITDA 10634.0 15278.0 18167.9 24929.6 33387.7 44347.9 57715.5 73740.9 32.3%

Pro forma Net Income Reconciliation


Pro Forma Operating Income 4524.0 7327.0 7060.7 10505.3 15463.0 22690.3 32163.4 43959.5
Interest Income 49.0 101.0 80.5 111.7 161.9 236.1 340.6 481.9
Interest Expense 460.0 484.0 529.0 572.8 626.0 652.5 704.5 721.5
Other Income (Expense), Net (254.0) 89.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Non-Operating Income (Expense), Net (665.0) (294.0) (448.5) (461.1) (464.1) (416.4) (363.8) (239.6)
Pretax Income 3859.0 7033.0 6612.1 10044.2 14998.9 22273.9 31799.5 43719.9
GAAP Income Tax Expense (Benefit) 951.0 1425.0 1062.2 2065.2 3586.1 5931.3 9063.1 13036.5
Income Tax Adjustment 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pro Forma Net Income 3067.0 5608.0 5550.0 7979.0 11412.9 16342.6 22736.4 30683.4

Adjusted EPS - Diluted $6.29 $11.54 $11.30 $15.97 $22.47 $31.63 $43.28 $57.43

Y/Y % Change
Total Net Sales 20.2% 27.1% 18.0% 18.9% 17.9% 16.9% 15.9% 14.8%
Cost of Sales 14.2% 23.2% 15.6% 16.2% 15.4% 14.1% 13.0% 11.9%
Gross Profit 34.8% 35.0% 22.5% 23.7% 22.1% 21.2% 20.0% 18.7%
Total Operating Expenses 27.1% 31.4% 26.3% 20.0% 17.7% 15.6% 14.0% 12.7%
Income From Operations 1154.5% 87.5% -17.8% 82.5% 68.3% 62.1% 51.2% 42.7%
Pretax Income -1500.0% 148.2% -23.1% 94.4% 73.6% 65.4% 52.8% 43.8%
Net Income (Loss) -347.3% 297.8% -22.9% 99.4% 75.6% 66.4% 53.3% 44.1%

Margins
Gross Margin 33.0% 35.1% 36.4% 37.9% 39.2% 40.7% 42.1% 43.6%
GAAP Operating Margin 2.1% 3.1% 2.1% 3.3% 4.7% 6.5% 8.5% 10.6%
Pro Forma Operating Margin 4.2% 5.4% 4.4% 5.5% 6.9% 8.6% 10.6% 12.6%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin 9.9% 11.2% 11.3% 13.1% 14.8% 16.9% 18.9% 21.1%
Net Income Margin 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.9% 2.8% 4.1% 5.4% 6.7%
Adjusted Net Income Margin 2.9% 4.1% 3.5% 4.2% 5.1% 6.2% 7.5% 8.8%

Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates

Amazon com Inc. (AMZN) 10


17 April 2017

Figure 15: Amazon.com Inc. – Cash Flow Statement


US$ in millions, unless otherwise stated

2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E


Operating Activities
Net Income (Loss) 596.0 2371.0 1828.6 3645.5 6402.7 10657.1 16339.9 23551.2
Depreciation of Property and Equipment, Including Internal-Use Software 6281.0 8117.0 11273.3 14590.4 18090.6 21823.6 25718.2 29947.4
Amortization of Goodwill and Other Intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stock-Based Compensation 2120.0 2975.0 3454.6 4061.6 4733.1 5402.8 6107.9 6837.6
Other Operating Expense (Income), Net 155.0 158.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Losses (Gains) on Sales of Marketable Securities, Net 5.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Expense (Income), Net 244.0 (23.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Deferred Income Taxes 82.0 (246.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Excess Tax Benefits from Stock-Based Compensation (119.0) (829.0) (1308.6) (1538.6) (1792.9) (2046.6) (2313.7) (2590.1)
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Inventories (2186.0) (1426.0) (1790.0) (1680.0) (1751.6) (1741.3) (1701.9) (1623.3)


Accounts Receivable, Net and Other (1755.0) (3367.0) (1045.7) (1739.4) (1945.6) (2156.1) (2350.5) (2527.2)
Accounts Payable 4294.0 5030.0 5498.0 6210.4 7071.2 7800.6 8509.3 9150.8
Accrued Expenses and Other 910.0 1724.0 2910.6 2820.9 3050.5 3196.1 3324.4 3410.2
Addition to Unearned Revenue 7401.0 11931.0 278.4 935.3 1046.2 1159.4 1263.9 1358.9
Amortization of Previously Unearned Revenue (6108.0) (9976.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Cash from Operating Activities 11920.0 16442.0 21099.0 27306.1 34904.1 44095.6 54897.6 67515.5

Investing Activities:
Purchases of Property and Equipment (4588.0) (6736.0) (7444.9) (7817.1) (8129.8) (8373.7) (8541.2) (8626.6)
Acquisitions, Net of cash Acquired and Other (795.0) (117.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sales and Maturities of Marketable Securities 3025.0 4733.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Purchases of Marketable Securities and Other (4092.0) (7756.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Cash from Investing Activities (6450.0) (9876.0) (7444.9) (7817.1) (8129.8) (8373.7) (8541.2) (8626.6)

Financing Activities:
Excess Tax Benefits from Stock-Based Compensation 119.0 829.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Proceeds from Long-Term Debt and Other 353.0 620.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Repayments of Long-Term Debt (1652.0) (355.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Proceeds from Issuance of Common Stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Cash from Financing Activities (3763.0) (2911.0) (5161.1) (6139.8) (7081.3) (8013.7) (8947.5) (9883.5)

Foreign-Currency Effect on Cash and Cash Equivalents (374.0) (211.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents 1333.0 3444.0 8493.0 13349.2 19693.0 27708.2 37408.9 49005.4
Cash and Cash Equivalents, Beginning of Period 14557.0 15890.0 19334.0 27827.0 41176.2 60869.2 88577.3 125986.2
Cash and Cash Equivalents, End of Period 15890.0 19334.0 27827.0 41176.2 60869.2 88577.3 125986.2 174991.6

Property and Equipment Acquired Under Capital Leases 4717.0 5704.0 6790.9 7599.5 8442.9 9311.1 10192.2 11072.4
Property and Equipment Acquired Under Build-to-Suit Leases 544.0 1209.0 1270.7 1330.3 1380.3 1419.3 1446.1 1459.7

Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates

Amazon com Inc. (AMZN) 11


17 April 2017

Figure 16: Amazon.com Inc. – Balance Sheet


US$ in millions, unless otherwise stated

2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E


Assets:
Cash and Cash Equivalents 15890.0 19334.0 27827.0 41176.2 60869.2 88577.3 125986.2 174991.6
Marketable Securities 3918.0 6647.0 6647.0 6647.0 6647.0 6647.0 6647.0 6647.0
Inventories 10243.0 11461.0 13251.0 14931.1 16682.7 18423.9 20125.8 21749.1
Accounts Receivable, Net and Other 6423.0 8339.0 9384.7 11124.1 13069.7 15225.8 17576.3 20103.5
Deferred Tax Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Current Assets 36474.0 45781.0 57109.7 73878.3 97268.5 128874.0 170335.3 223491.2

Property and Equipment, Net


Goodwill 3759.0 3784.0 3784.0 3784.0 3784.0 3784.0 3784.0 3784.0
Other Intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Deferred Tax Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Assets 3373.0 4723.0 5588.6 6624.5 7783.1 9067.1 10466.8 11971.8
Total Assets 65444.0 83402.0 97525.6 117749.3 142359.2 172659.3 209981.6 255853.9

Liabilities:
Accounts Payable 20397.0 25309.0 30807.0 37017.4 44088.6 51889.2 60398.5 69549.3
Accrued Expenses and Other 10384.0 13739.0 16649.6 19470.5 22520.9 25717.0 29041.4 32451.6
Unearned Revenue 3118.0 4768.0 5046.4 5981.7 7027.9 8187.3 9451.3 10810.2
Interest Payable 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Current Liabilities 33899.0 43816.0 52502.9 62469.6 73637.5 85793.5 98891.1 112811.1

Long-Term Debt 8235.0 7694.0 7694.0 7694.0 7694.0 7694.0 7694.0 7694.0
Other Long-Term Liabilities 9926.0 12607.0 10706.0 12739.6 14737.9 16711.2 18655.7 20558.1
Commitments and Contingencies 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Stockholder's Equity:
Preferred Stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Common Stock 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Treasury Stock, At Cast (1837.0) (1837.0) (1837.0) (1837.0) (1837.0) (1837.0) (1837.0) (1837.0)
Additional Paid-in Capital 13394.0 17186.0 22695.1 27273.1 32314.2 37827.8 43768.0 50266.7
APIC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Plug 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Deferred Stock-Based Compensation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss (723.0) (985.0) (985.0) (985.0) (985.0) (985.0) (985.0) (985.0)
Retained Earnings 2545.0 4916.0 6744.6 10390.1 16792.7 27449.8 43789.8 67340.9
Total Stockholder's Equity 13384.0 19285.0 26622.7 34846.1 46289.9 62460.6 84740.8 114790.7
Total Liabilities and Stockholder's Equity 65444.0 83402.0 97525.6 117749.3 142359.2 172659.3 209981.6 255853.9

Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates

Amazon com Inc. (AMZN) 12


17 April 2017

Companies Mentioned (Price as of 16-Apr-2017)


Amazon com Inc. (AMZN.OQ, $884.67, OUTPERFORM, TP $1050.0)

Disclosure Appendix
Analyst Certification
I, Stephen Ju, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and
securities and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in
this report.
3-Year Price and Rating History for Amazon com Inc. (AMZN.OQ)

AMZN.OQ Closing Price Target Price Target Price Closing Price AMZN.OQ
Date (US$) (US$) Rating 1,200
25-Apr-14 303.83 439.00 O
25-Jul-14 324.01 431.00 1,000

14-Oct-14 308.31 422.00 800


24-Oct-14 287.06 395.00
600
14-Jan-15 293.27 389.00
30-Jan-15 354.53 410.00 400
14-Apr-15 385.11 412.00
200
24-Apr-15 445.10 480.00 01- Jan- 2015 01- Jan- 2016 01- Jan- 2017
24-Jul-15 529.42 700.00
09-Oct-15 539.80 720.00 O U T PERFO RM

23-Oct-15 599.03 777.00


12-Jan-16 617.89 800.00
29-Apr-16 659.59 880.00
29-Jul-16 758.81 920.00
17-Oct-16 812.95 1050.00
28-Oct-16 776.32 1000.00
11-Jan-17 799.02 950.00
03-Feb-17 810.20 900.00
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.
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Amazon com Inc. (AMZN) 13


17 April 2017

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Target Price and Rating


Valuation Methodology and Risks: (12 months) for Amazon com Inc. (AMZN.OQ)
Method: We use the discounted cash flow (DCF) method to calculate our $1050 target price for AMZN. Our 5-year DCF uses a 3% terminal growth
rate and a market-implied discount rate derived by discounting our unlevered FCF (free cash flow) estimates from 2017 through 2022 to
arrive at the stock's current trading price. We then applied this discount rate to our 2017-2022 unlevered free cash flow estimates for
AMZN. We maintain our Outperform rating for AMZN shares, and factors that can provide potential upside to our estimates include: ) re-
establishment of e-commerce segment operating margin expansion as Amazon grows into its larger infrastructure, 2) ongoing margin
benefit due to shipping loss moderation, and 3) upward bias to AWS revenue forecasts and likely more moderate deceleration path as
suggested by ongoing capital intensity in the busines
Risk: Risks to our $1050 target price and Outperform rating for AMZN include a deteriorating global economy, competition from major offline
retailers, volatility in operating margins, and unpredictable investment spending.

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Amazon com Inc. (AMZN) 14


17 April 2017

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Amazon com Inc. (AMZN) 15


17 April 2017

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Amazon com Inc. (AMZN) 16

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