ACMA Commodity Prices Feb'2023
ACMA Commodity Prices Feb'2023
com
Commodity price
monitor
February-23
Prepared for ACMA
Strictly private
and confidential
February 2023
Contents | Commodity trend dashboard
Iron & Steel Ferro-alloys Base Metals Precious Metals Polymers & Rubber Appendices
Contents
Commodity trend dashboard 4
1 Iron Ore 8
2 Pig Iron 9
3 Wire Rod 10
4 Steel Billets 11
Ferro-alloys 15
9 Ferro chrome 16
10 Ferro silicon 17
12 Stainless Steel 19
Base Metals 21
14 Aluminium 22
Contents
15 Copper 23
16 Zinc 24
17 Lead 25
18 Nickel 26
19 Tin 27
Precious Metals 28
20 Precious Metals 29
22 Polypropylene (PP) 32
25 Rubber 35
Appendices 36
26 Forex Movement 37
27 Crude Oil 38
28 Commodity Specifications 39
Q-o-Q
Commodity Region Q-o-Q Up
Down
Iron & Steel
Iron Ore International -36.48% q
Domestic low grade #N/A
Domestic high grade #N/A
Pig Iron International -5.47% q
Domestic 7.92% p
Stainless steel Domestic 7.86% p
Domestic 7.42% p
Wire rod International -5.02% q
Domestic 4.89% p
Steel Billets International 0.00% q
Domestic 1.66% p
Hot-rolled coils International -9.32% q
Domestic 1.54% p
Cold-rolled coils International -10.15% q
Domestic 1.07% p
Steel Scrap Domestic 1.37% p
EN8 Domestic 3.91% p
20MnCr5 Domestic 3.86% p
Ferro-alloys
Ferro titanium International N/A
International 3.11% p
Ferro chrome
Domestic -1.46% q
Ferro molybdenum International N/A
Ferro vanadium International N/A
International 17.37% p
Ferro silicon
Domestic 73.20% p
Q-o-Q
Commodity Region Q-o-Q Up
Down
Base Metals
International 4.39% p
Aluminum
Domestic 5.27% p
International 3.47% p
Copper
Domestic 2.67% p
International 18.42% p
Zinc
Domestic 13.03% p
International -0.46% q
Lead
Domestic 3.49% p
International 3.60% p
Nickel
Domestic 6.11% p
International 11.80% p
Tin
Domestic N/A
Magnesium International N/A
Precious Metals
Platinum International -2.29% q
Palladium International -20.76% q
Rhodium International -18.83% q
Polymers
International 5.83% p
Low density polyethylene (LDPE)
Domestic 13.89% p
International 8.44% p
Polypropylene (PP)
Domestic 8.41% p
International 2.18% p
Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene (ABS)
Domestic 3.44% p
International 0.00% q
Polystyrene (PS)
Domestic 1.16% p
Rubber Domestic 1.90% p
Currency Exchange
Dollar International 1.30% p
Pound International -2.01% q
Euro International -2.14% q
Yen International -1.49% q
Iron Ore
180
International
170
160
+1%
150 Monthly Average Prices
+12% -7%
140 -19%
+2% +2%
130 +9% *Int'l *Dom
+21%
120
-6% Period $/tonne Rs/tonne
110 0%
-6%
100 +2% 65% & 65% &
below above
90
Feb-22 120 4259 5874
80
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-22 134 4447 6579
Source: Crisil Apr-22 136 4696 6632
In May, international prices declined due to prolonged covid-19 restrictions in China which led to weaker spot demand. In June,
International prices rose slightly due to sentiment in future markets and demand from top steel producers in China. In July, international
prices fell sharply due to weaker demand for steel from the construction sector in China. In August, international prices remained stable.
Domestic prices decreased due to a fall in demand in China, caused by COVID-19 restrictions and a slowdown in the property sector. In
September, international prices fell due to fresh covid-19 restrictions, typhoons, and property sector troubles in China squeezing demand
for ferrous metals. In October, international and domestic prices dropped as a result of lower consumption levels, particularly in China due
to the nation's housing market woes along with Covid restrictions. In November, international prices remained relatively stable. In
December, international prices rose sharply as a result of a surge in demand from steel plants following the expectation of an easing in
China’s strict pandemic restrictions. In January and February, international prices increased amid expectations of strong demand as China
re-opened its economy after abandoning its strict zero-COVID policy.
Pig Iron
1,000
International
950 Pig Iron (Foundry grade-FOB CIS) $/tonne
900
0%
850
+32% -23%
800
750
700
650 -25% Monthly Average Prices
600
550 Period *Int'l *Dom
500 -8% +6%
+5% +6%
-1% +2%
450 -5% -7%
400 $/tonne Rs/tonne
350 Feb-22 561 48250
300
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
Mar-22 739 58250
Apr-22 736 61750
Source: Crisil
May-22 564 60750
75,000
Jun-22 425 54750
Domestic
72,500 Pig Iron (Foundry grade, Ex-factory) Rs/tonne
70,000 Jul-22 391 52750
67,500 -2% Aug-22 373 52600
+6%
65,000 -10% Sep-22 370 50100
62,500 +21% Oct-22 388 48600
60,000 Nov-22 360 46600
-4%
57,500 -5%
0% Dec-22 367 46000
55,000 -3%
-4% +1% Jan-23 388 47700
52,500 +4%
50,000 Feb-23 413 48100
-1%
47,500
45,000
42,500
40,000
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
*The actual prices may vary depending on
Source: Crisil city, player, grade etc.
Outlook
Domestic prices fell due to decline in domestic demand and sustained effect of imposition of higher export duties. In August, domestic
prices remained stable. International prices fell as a result of a sustained decrease in coking coal prices. In September, domestic prices fell
due to the 15% export duty causing inventory build-up in the domestic market. International prices decreased due to recession fears and
expectations of lower demand. In October, domestic prices fell due to lower auction volumes at steel plants as a result of subdued domestic
demand - due to the festive season - coupled with an inventory pile-up at steel mills. International prices rose due to a rise in coking coal
prices. In November, international and domestic prices declined sharply due to a fall in coking coal prices, along with a slowdown in end-
user demand caused by recessionary fears and geo-political unrest. In December, international prices rose slightly in tandem with iron ore
prices. Domestic prices remained marginally stable. In January, domestic prices increased as India's largest iron ore producer NMDC raised
its iron ore prices, a key raw material. International prices increased due to a boost in China’s property sector as a result of favorable
policymaking. In February, prices increased in tandem with key raw material prices of coking coal and iron ore.
Wire Rod
1,200
International
1,150 Wire Rod (CIS Black Sea) $/tonne
1,100
1,050
1,000 -6%
+5%
950 +9% -10%
900
Monthly Average Prices
850 -12%
800 -13%
Period ^*Int'l *Dom
750 -2% +5% +2%
700 -5% +7%
+2% ($/tonne) (Rs/tonne)
650
600
550 Feb-22 782 56994
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
Mar-22 854 66994
Source: Crisil
Apr-22 895 65994
80,000 May-22 844 62994
Domestic
77,500 Wire Rod (India 5.5 mm, Inc. ex) Rs/tonne
Jun-22 761 54994
75,000
-1% Jul-22 669 54194
72,500
+18% Aug-22 659 52994
70,000 -5%
67,500 -13% Sep-22 628 51694
65,000 Oct-22 659 51394
62,500 Nov-22 576 50994
60,000 +5% Dec-22 587 49594
-2%
57,500 -1% +4%
-3% Jan-23 628 51594
55,000 -2% -1%
-1% Feb-23 638 54094
52,500
50,000
47,500
45,000
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
*The actual prices may vary depending
Source: Crisil on city, player, grade etc.
Outlook
In August, domestic prices fell slightly owing to a reduction in offer prices by steel producers and a fall in bids at SAIL auctions.
International prices fell as a result of a fall in demand, due to lower consumption levels. In September, prices fell due to market
uncertainty amid soaring energy prices, coupled with highly volatile prices of semi-finished steel in key markets. In October, domestic
prices fell due to subdued domestic demand and inventory pile-up at steel mills due to scheduled maintenance breaks. International
prices increased in tandem with stainless steel prices. In November, international prices fell sharply due to a fall in downstream demand,
a slowdown in China’s economy (a major consumer of finished steel products), as well as high inventory levels at mills. Domestic prices
remained relatively stable. In December, international prices rose due to a surge in demand from the construction sector of China.
Domestic prices decreased due to a decline in coking coal prices. In January, prices increased due to a contraction in pig iron production
rates at major integrated steel works in the EU, the UK, the Balkans, and Turkey. In February, prices increased due to an increase in the
price of steel, iron ore, and coking coal.
Steel Billets
1,000
International International Price (Black Sea Steel Billet Spot FOB) $/tonne
950
-3%
900
850 +16%
-16%
800
750 Monthly Average Prices
700 -13%
Period ^*Int'l *Dom
650 +7%
-8% -4%
+5% +5%
600 +2% +5% ($/tonne) (Rs/tonne)
-7%
550
500 Feb-22 675 48500
Mar-22 784 58200
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
Apr-22 758 55860
Source: Crisil
May-22 638 52650
75,000 Jun-22 556 48250
Domestic
72,500 Billets (100^100 mm) Rs/tonne
Jul-22 513 50960
70,000
67,500 Aug-22 524 50833
-4%
65,000 Sep-22 550 50000
62,500 +20% Oct-22 530 49425
60,000 -6% Nov-22 493 47375
57,500 -8% Dec-22 519 45080
55,000 +6% -2% Jan-23 544 49225
0% -4% +9%
52,500 -1% -2%
-5% Feb-23 581 48333
50,000
47,500
45,000
42,500
40,000
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
*The actual prices may vary depending
Source: Crisil on city, player, grade etc.
Outlook
In July, international prices fell to their lowest level in 12 months on account of weaker demand for finished steel. Domestic prices rose
sharply due to a rise in input costs. In August, international prices rose due to an increase in energy costs. Domestic prices remained
stable. In September, international prices slightly increased in tandem with steel prices. Domestic prices plummeted due to sluggish
finished steel sales ahead of the festive season and hampered construction activities amid a monsoon that has taken time to recede. In
October, international and domestic prices fell due to a sharp downturn in Chinese demand, due to concerns over the housing market and
COVID-19 restrictions. In November, domestic prices fell due to lower bids, weak spot trading, and large inventory volumes at mills.
International prices fell due to weak demand from the real estate and construction sectors, particularly in China. In December,
international prices increased due to a rise in demand from the Chinese construction sector and post-easing in restrictions. Domestic prices
fell sharply due to the imposition of export duty by the government of India, aided by rising stock levels. In January and February, prices
increased due to high input costs - primarily iron ore and coking coal - and supply chain disruptions due to the ongoing geopolitical crisis.
^International prices changed due to change in the grade
1,200
-9%
1,100 +9%
Monthly Average Prices
+2% -21%
1,000
Source: Crisil
*The actual prices may vary depending
on city, player, grade etc.
Outlook
In August, prices fell owing to weekly price cuts by steel mills, as a result of subdued domestic demand and exports. In September, domestic
prices rose because of an increase in the price of key raw materials (steel). International prices fell due to lower end-user demand in the face
of economic uncertainty. In October, international prices increased after hitting a year-low in September due to a rise in raw material
prices. Domestic prices remained relatively stable. In November, international prices declined due to lower raw material and input costs,
along with a fall in downstream demand. Domestic prices remained relatively stable. In December, international prices increased sharply on
the back of a rebound in the domestic Chinese market. Domestic prices decreased as Indian mills were forced to cut prices due to higher
available stocks and a weakening commodity cycle. In January, domestic prices increased as a result of a rise in raw material prices.
International prices increased in tandem with coking coal prices. In February, prices increased due to high raw material costs, expectations
of steel prices to remain supported owing to the cost-push and recovery in Chinese demand, and declining inventory amid expectations of
favorable policies in China.
65,000
60,000
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
*The actual prices may vary depending
Source: Crisil on city, player, grade etc.
Outlook
In July, both international and domestic prices fell sharply due to weaker demand from China, coupled with inflationary pressures in
Europe. In August, domestic prices fell slightly due to a fall in raw material (coking coal) prices. International prices remained stable. In
September, domestic prices increased slightly due to a rise in raw material (coking coal) prices. International prices decreased due to lower
buying activity as a result of economic uncertainty. In October, both international and domestic prices increased due to an increase in prices
by steelmakers in accordance with higher coking coal prices. In November, prices declined in tandem with steel and HRC prices. In
December, international prices increased as China ditched its “zero COVID” policy and adopted new economic stimulus measures,
including new investments on infrastructure. Domestic prices decreased as steelmakers were forced to cut prices as a result of higher
available stocks caused by weakening export markets. In January and February, prices increased due to a boost in demand as a result of
easing of restrictions in China and increased global inflation.
In March, prices rose in tandem with steel prices. In April, prices fell slightly due to weaker demand from domestic steel mills and weaker
prices into Turkey, which is a key buyer. In May, domestic prices fell due to weaker demand for finished steel. In June, domestic prices fell
due to low ingots sales. In July, prices fell amid an oversupply crisis, weakening of demand, and seasonal monsoon pressures. In August,
prices increased on the back of a rise in demand from the automotive industry, owing to the onset of the festive season. In September,
prices saw a downward trend due to considerable imports of cheaper bulk scrap from the US. In October, prices declined slightly due to
reduced buying at steel scrap auctions, as a result of lower domestic consumption levels. In November, prices fell sharply due to the pile-up
of finished inventory with steel mills post-export duty imposition, coupled with weak end-user demand and the resultant lower capacity
utilization. In December and January, prices increased due to low availability during the winter period, as adverse weather conditions
slowed down the collection and processing of scrap. In February, prices decreased due to the consequences of the Turkey-Syria earthquake.
Ferro chrome
2,300
International Ferro Chrome (FOB Hong Kong, Cr 50%) $/tonne
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,900 Monthly Average Prices
1,800
1,700 +4% -4% Period *Int'l *Dom
-1% -13%
1,600 +4%
-7% +4%
1,500 +9% ($/tonne) (Rs/tonne)
1,400 +3%
+5%
1,300 -1% Feb-22 1395 101400
-1%
1,200
Mar-22 1455 122400
1,100
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Apr-22 1507 117200
May-22 1489 120600
Source: Crisil
Jun-22 1430 106100
155,000
Domestic Ferro Chrome (Cr:60%, Ex Fac) Rs/tonne Jul-22 1327 100600
150,000
145,000 Aug-22 1156 92600
140,000 -4% Sep-22 1138 91100
135,000 Oct-22 1190 96200
130,000 +21% -12%
Nov-22 1181 97300
125,000 3% +14%
Dec-22 1216 92500
120,000
+10% Jan-23 1327 101500
115,000 -5%
Feb-23 1378 115300
110,000 -8% -5%
+1%
105,000 +6%
100,000 -2%
95,000
90,000
85,000
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
*The actual prices may vary depending
Source: Crisil on city, player, grade etc.
Outlook
In June, both international and domestic prices fell due to extremely sluggish demand. In July, domestic prices fell owing to a lack of
demand from stainless steel makers and a decrease in export orders. International prices fell due to a weakening of demand caused by
ongoing inflationary pressures. In August, prices continued to trend downwards amid low liquidity levels and bearish market sentiments. In
September, prices fell due to a fall in the price of raw materials (Iron). In October, domestic prices increased sharply owing to higher
chrome ore prices, caused by a bullish response at OMC’s chrome ore auction. International prices rose due to a shortage in supply, owing
to reduced production at Chinese smelters as a result of Covid-19 restrictions. In November, international prices remained relatively stable.
Domestic prices rose slightly as the NMDC hiked iron ore prices, which is a key raw material. In December, international prices increased in
tandem with iron ore prices. Domestic prices decreased due to a decrease in the price of coking coal. In January and February, prices
increased in tandem with chromium and iron ore prices. In February, prices increased due to the limited availability of chrome ores, a
severe earthquake in Turkey- one of the biggest chrome ore producers, and reduced production of Asian ferrochrome producers.
Ferro silicon
5,500
International Ferro silicon (Si 75%, FOB China)$/tonne
5,000
4,500
4,000
-14%
Monthly Average Prices
3,500
+12%
3,000 Period *Int'l *Dom
+8%
2,500 -11% -4%
-5% +1% +5% +2%
-6% +2%
-3% ($/tonne) (Rs/tonne)
2,000
Monthly Average
Prices
96,000 *Dom
Domestic
94,000 Alloy Steel (forging)-EN8 India Rs/tonne
92,000 Period
+7% -4%
0% (Rs/tonne)
90,000
88,000 -2%
Feb-22 77750
86,000 +6% -1% -5%
0%
84,000 0% Mar-22 82500
82,000 -4% Apr-22 88600
80,000 May-22 88250
78,000
-1% Jun-22 84875
76,000 0%
Jul-22 83200
74,000
72,000 Aug-22 82000
70,000 Sep-22 82000
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
Oct-22 82000
Source: SIAM Nov-22 78000
Dec-22 75000
Jan-23 74000
Feb-23 74000
Stainless Steel
400,000
Domestic
380,000 G304 HR Coil
360,000
340,000
320,000 Monthly Domestic Average Prices
300,000 -8%
+1% +3% +1%
280,000 -2% -5%
0% -1% -2% *G304 HR *G304 CR
260,000
240,000
Mar’22 & Period
220,000
Apr’22 data (Rs/tonne) (Rs/tonne)
200,000 0%
0% unavailable;
180,000 assumed to
160,000 be same as Feb-22 162200 171750
140,000 Feb’22
Mar-22 162200 171750
120,000
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Apr-22 162200 171750
May-22 260500 280500
Jun-22 240500 260600
360,000
Domestic G304 CR Coil Jul-22 235750 247750
340,000
Aug-22 237375 250250
320,000
-7% Sep-22 238500 251000
300,000 -5% +3% +1% -5% Oct-22 245000 258000
280,000 +1% -1% -2%
0% Nov-22 243400 256000
260,000
240,000 Dec-22 245750 258750
Mar’22 & Jan-23 242000 254500
220,000 Apr’22 data
200,000 0% unavailable; Feb-23 229375 242000
0% assumed to
180,000
be same as
160,000 Feb’22
140,000
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
Source: SIAM
96,000
Domestic Alloy Steel (Forging)-20MnCr5 India Rs/tonne *Dom
94,000
+7% -4% Period
92,000 0%
(Rs/tonne)
90,000
88,000 -2%
+6% -5% Feb-22 78750
86,000 -1% 0%
0% Mar-22 83500
84,000
82,000 Apr-22 89600
-4%
80,000 May-22 89250
78,000 -1% Jun-22 85875
0%
76,000 Jul-22 84200
74,000 Aug-22 83000
72,000 Sep-22 83000
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
Oct-22 83000
Source: SIAM
Nov-22 79000
Dec-22 76000
Jan-23 75000
Feb-23 75000
Aluminium
4,400
International Aluminium (Al99.70) $/tonne
4,200
4,000 -8%
3,800 +8%
3,600 -13%
3,400 Monthly Average Prices
3,200
-9%
3,000 *Int'l *Dom
2,400
Feb-22 3260 261
2,200
Mar-22 3537 290
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
Apr-22 3256 268
Source: LME
May-22 2826 241
360 Jun-22 2563 221
Domestic Aluminium (min 99.7%) Rs/kg
340 Jul-22 2401 209
-7% Aug-22 2431 212
320
+11% Sep-22 2230 197
300 Oct-22 2243 201
-10%
280 Nov-22 2335 207
Dec-22 2394 212
260 -8%
Jan-23 2489 217
240 -5% -7% +2% +2% Feb-23 2417 216
+1% +3% 0%
+3%
220
200
180
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
*The actual prices may vary depending
Source: MCX*
*Source updated in July 2019 on city, player, grade etc.
Outlook
In July, international prices fell due to weaker demand, caused by weaker premiums and recession concerns. In August, both domestic and
international prices increased slightly owing to a growth in industrial demand in China, coupled with production cuts in European
Aluminium smelters. In September, both international and domestic prices fell due to weak demand amid slow global economic growth and
the US dollar reaching a two-decade-high. In October, domestic prices rose on account of lower supply levels, caused by production cuts in
Chinese aluminium smelters. International prices remained relatively stable. In November, prices increased due to lower producer margins
caused by soaring energy costs. In December, prices grew because of a rise in demand of low-carbon Aluminium caused by the importance
placed on climate-friendly supply, along with higher demand for light metal from the automotive industry. In January, prices rose due to
increased tariffs, supply woes caused by the Shanghai smelter cutting production, and Chinese ingot inventories being de-stocked. In
February, domestic prices remained relatively stable. International prices decreased due to a drop in worldwide demand and increasing
production and logistic costs.
Copper
12,500
International Copper (Grade A) $/tonne
12,000
11,500
-1%
11,000 +3% -8%
10,500 -17%
10,000 -4% Monthly Average Prices
+8%
9,500 0%
*Int'l *Dom
9,000 +4%
+6% +5% Period
8,500 -3% -1%
($/tonne) (Rs/kg)
8,000
7,500 Feb-22 9940 765
7,000 Mar-22 10237 819
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
Source: LME
Apr-22 10182 812
May-22 9362 764
950
Jun-22 9032 743
Domestic
925 Copper (Grade 1: B115) Rs/kg
Jul-22 7529 639
900
-1%
875 Aug-22 7960 664
+7% -6%
850 Sep-22 7734 645
825 -14% Oct-22 7620 653
+2%
800 +7%
-3% Nov-22 8029 678
775
Dec-22 8367 709
750 +4%
-3% +1% Jan-23 8999 760
725 +4%
+4% Feb-23 8954 772
700
675
650
625
600
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
*The actual prices may vary depending
Source: MCX
on city, player, grade etc.
Outlook
In August, prices increased as US inflation data was weaker than expected, reducing concerns over aggressive interest rate hikes and easing
fears of a recession. In September, prices fell due to a major usage hit from China where a troubled property sector has decreased demand
for steel including zinc-coated galvanized steel and European smelters struggling to cope with soaring power prices. In October, domestic
prices rose slightly on account of a rise in demand due to the onset of the festive season. International prices remained relatively stable. In
November, prices increased due to low inventory levels and a seasonal rise in demand. In December, both international and domestic prices
rose due to support projects being planned in the world’s largest consumer of copper, coupled with an increase in demand from China due
to an easing of restrictions. In January, prices surged due to a boost in demand for ‘green’ metals as the green transition accelerates,
coupled with supply woes in Peru and operational issues in Latin America. In February, International prices decreased due to a slower-
than-expected demand recovery, high U.S. interest rates, and an increase in scrap availability in the Chinese market. Domestic prices
continue to rise on account of healthy buying enquiries amid a rise in LME futures.
Zinc
6,000
International
5,750 Zinc (min 99.995%) $/tonne
5,500
5,250 -14%
5,000
+10% +15%
4,750
Monthly Average Prices
4,500 +9%
-15%
4,250
-3% *Int'l *Dom
4,000 -14% -6%
-4%
3,750 +5% Period
3,500 +7% ($/tonne) (Rs/kg)
3,250 -1%
3,000 Feb-22 3644 301
2,750
Mar-22 3974 329
2,500
2,250 Apr-22 4370 362
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
May-22 3759 321
Source: LME
Jun-22 3643 313
460 Jul-22 3097 275
Domestic
440 NCDEX Zinc (min 99.995%) Rs/kg
Aug-22 3572 314
420 -11%
Sep-22 3136 280
400 Oct-22 2959 271
+10% +14%
380 Nov-22 2923 265
360 +10% -12% Dec-22 3128 277
340 -2% -12% -3% Jan-23 3289 287
320 -4% Feb-23 3143 276
+3%
+5%
300
-2%
280
260
240
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
*The actual prices may vary depending
Source: MCX*
on city, player, grade etc.
Outlook
In June, prices fell slightly due to slow demand, crackdown of supply chain by governments to fight inflation. In July, prices continued to
fall due to oversupply and a weakening in demand. In August, prices rose sharply due to closure of Dutch mills on the back of the global
energy crisis, along with production cuts in Chinese Zinc smelters. In September, prices fell due to a major usage hit from China where a
troubled property sector has decreased demand for steel including zinc-coated galvanized steel and European smelters struggling to cope
with soaring power prices. In October, both international prices declined due to lower demand in China, caused by lower economic activity.
Domestic prices fell due to a fall in exports to China. In November, prices marginally declined due to a slowdown in demand caused by a
sustained slump in China’s economic activity, along with a rebound in the dollar. In December, both international and domestic prices
increased on the back of tight supply amid reduced production in Europe due to higher energy costs, and higher demand due to easing of
lockdown and quarantine measures in China. In January, prices increased due to higher costs of production as coal prices rose. In February
prices tumbled due to the potential for a significant supply recovery and a return to zinc surplus after two years of shortfall.
Lead
3,000
International Lead ($/Tonne)
2,900
2,800
-10%
2,700
2,600 +2%
2,500 +3%
2,400 Monthly Average Prices
+5% -5%
2,300 -4% -11% +6% 0%
+5% +6% *Int'l *Dom
2,200 -4%
2,100 Period
2,000 ($/tonne) (Rs/kg)
1,900
Feb-22 2299 185
1,800
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-22 2358 186
Source: LME Apr-22 2396 187
May-22 2144 183
195
Domestic MCX Lead (Rs/kg) Jun-22 2067 182
Jul-22 1976 175
+1%
190 -2% -2% Aug-22 2077 181
+1% +2%
+1% Sep-22 1874 177
Oct-22 1987 180
185 -4% +1% Nov-22 2099 182
0% -2% +2%
+4% Dec-22 2212 187
Jan-23 2208 189
180 Feb-23 2098 184
175
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
*The actual prices may vary depending
Source: MCX
on city, player, grade etc.
Outlook
In May, international prices hit a 12-month low due to weak global demand, increased supply and a general slowdown in demand within the
automobile sector. In June, domestic prices remained stable. International prices going further low due to actions taken to confront
inflation. In July, both international and domestic prices fell to their lowest levels in 12 months as a result of oversupply and inflation
concerns. In August, prices increased due to an increase in demand for lead-acid batteries. In September, both domestic and international
prices plummeted because of lower demand caused by a slowdown in global economic growth. In October, prices increased due to a fall in
inventory levels of lead ingots - widely used to produce various lead-based products. In November, international prices rose sharply in
anticipation of fund buying after Lead got included in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM). Domestic prices remained relatively
stable. In December, international prices rose due to tight supply caused by lower production in mines worldwide, and a higher rate of
automotive battery replacements caused by harsh weather conditions. Domestic prices remained relatively stable. In January, prices
remained relatively stable. In February, prices decreased as the peak lead acid car battery replacement season of winter ended.
Nickel
50,000
International Nickel (min 99.80%) $/tonne
45,000
-18%
40,000 +7%
+32% -2%
35,000 -17%
+14% Monthly Average Prices
-8% +3% -3%
-5%
30,000 +15%
*Int'l *Dom
+2%
25,000
Period
($/tonne) (Rs/kg)
20,000
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
*The actual prices may vary depending
Source: MCX*
on city, player, grade etc.
Outlook
In June, international and domestic prices fell on back of economic concerns stemming from rising inflation, interest rates and energy
costs. In July, international prices fell sharply due to lower industrial demand. In August, international prices rose on the back of increased
demand from the EV-battery industry. Domestic prices fell as a result of lower input costs. In September, both domestic and international
prices rose sharply due to a surge in buying from Russia and Nornickel, which account for 15-20% production of battery-grade Nickel in the
world. In October, prices decreased as a result of lower end-user demand in China due to stronger Covid-19 restrictions caused by an
increase in the number of cases. In November, both domestic and international prices increased sharply due to a surge in demand in the
global EV market, and speculation of possible supply disruptions from Russian Class 1 producer Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) .In December,
prices rose due to tight supply coupled with higher downstream demand, especially for cathodes of electric vehicle batteries in China. In
January, international prices decreased due to macroeconomic headwinds and a surplus of inventory. Domestic prices increased due to a
surge in demand from the EV industry. In February, prices tumbled on expectations of easing supply tightness.
Tin
*Int'l
Period
65,000
($/tonne)
International Tin (min 99.85% ) $/tonne
60,000
55,000 Feb-22 44104
-17%
Mar-22 44221
50,000 -3%
0% -21% Apr-22 43100
45,000
-12% May-22 35913
40,000 +17% Jun-22 31750
35,000 -15% -9% -4%
+14% Jul-22 25147
30,000 -3%
Aug-22 24495
+9%
25,000 Sep-22 21244
Precious Metals
1,400
International Platinum International Price $/troy oz.
1,300
1,200
-8% -9%
0% +4%
1,100 +3%
-1% +8%
-1% -9% -3% +4%
1,000 +4%
900
3,200 Period Pt Pd Rh
International
3,000 +12%
-11% Palladium International Price $/troy oz.
2,800 Feb-22 1056 2360 18183
2,600 -11% -1% -1%
+8% Mar-22 1054 2636 19402
2,400 +3%
-7% -8%
2,200 -4%
-5% Apr-22 973 2352 18857
2,000 -11% May-22 967 2091 16064
1,800
Jun-22 961 1939 14046
1,600
Jul-22 879 1996 14300
1,400
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Aug-22 916 2154 14456
Sep-22 886 2134 14181
35,000
International Rhodium International Price $/troy oz. Oct-22 924 2108 13987
30,000 Nov-22 999 1940 13450
Dec-22 1025 1854 12626
25,000 -3%
+7% -15% Jan-23 1067 1761 12246
20,000 -2% -1% Feb-23 968 1567 11730
-13% +1% -6%
+2% -4% -4%
-3%
15,000
10,000
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
Source: Johnson Matthey
*The actual prices may vary depending
on city, player, grade etc.
Outlook
In November, Platinum prices increased as a result of growing automotive demand for increased substitution and higher loadings, coupled
with committed industrial capacity additions. Palladium and Rhodium prices fell due to weak demand caused by the fears of recession,
surging inflation, and rising interest rates. In December, Platinum prices rose due to a surge in demand for auto catalysts. Palladium and
Rhodium prices declined due to the aggressive tightening of monetary policies in response to elevated inflation rates. In January, platinum
prices continued to rise due to strong demand from the auto industry - heavier loading of platinum on auto catalysts and a marked upturn
in the adoption of hydrogen fuel cells (which uses platinum as a catalyst). Palladium prices fell as mines affected by weather-related
incidents were back to their normal output levels. Rhodium prices decreased due to an ease in supply woes caused by the Russia-Ukraine
war. In February, Palladium prices decreased as it is getting substituted by platinum because of an increase in the adoption of electric
vehicles. Platinum and Rhodium prices fell as a result of the historically high USD index and high-interest rates.
800
Feb-22 973 155986
750 Mar-22 1019 157028
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
Apr-22 973 158692
Source: Crisil
May-22 882 156359
180,000 Jun-22 916 149359
Domestic
175,000 LDPE (RIL 16MA400 Ex-Mumbai) Rs/tonne
Jul-22 882 146934
170,000
+1% -4% Aug-22 836 130941
165,000 +1% -1%
Sep-22 836 127153
160,000
-2% Oct-22 836 131591
155,000 -11%
Nov-22 802 125758
150,000
Dec-22 836 123439
145,000
-3% +3% Jan-23 847 126385
140,000 -4% +1%
135,000 +2% Feb-23 128095
-2%
130,000
125,000
120,000
115,000
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
*The actual prices may vary depending
Source: Reliance Industries Ltd.
on city, player, grade etc.
Outlook
In July, domestic prices fell slightly due to a reduction in crude oil prices and lower demand on account of the off-season. In
August, prices fell sharply in tandem with crude oil prices. In September, the domestic price fell due to low feedstock ethylene
costs. International prices remained unaffected. In October, domestic prices increased despite a price dip in ethylene due to a
spike in oil prices. International prices remained stable. In November, domestic and international prices fell due to persistent
dull demand, surplus inventories and lower import offers from overseas suppliers. In December, domestic prices fell in
tandem with crude oil prices. International prices increased due to stronger demand from China after relaxation of COVID
norms. In January, prices increased slightly in tandem with crude oil prices. In February, prices increased on the back of an
improvement in demand from the agricultural sector and expectations of a rebound in Chinese demand in the post-holiday
period.
Polypropylene (PP)
1,450
Prices not
International
1,400 International Price (PPHP) $/tonne released by
the source
1,350 as on
1,300 25/03/23
+2%
1,250 -4%
+3%
1,200 Monthly Average Prices
-5%
1,150 -6%
1,100 Period *Int'l *Dom
-8%
1,050
+1% -6% +5%
1,000 -1% ($/tonne) (Rs/tonne)
950 +1%
2,750 -4%
2,500 -10%
2,250 -6% Monthly Average Prices
2,000 -8%
-3% +3%
1,750 -1% -3% *Int'l *Dom
-5%
1,500
1,250 Period
1,000 ($/tonne) (Rs/tonne)
750
500 Feb-22 2460 203520
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
Mar-22 2478 208640
Source: Crisil
Apr-22 2372 199680
270,000 May-22 1841 157440
260,000 Prices not
Domestic ABS Rs/tonne released by Jun-22 1735 148480
250,000
the source Jul-22 1558 135680
240,000 -4% as on
230,000 +3% 25/03/23 Aug-22 1434 125440
220,000 -21%
Sep-22 1416 124160
210,000
200,000 Oct-22 1381 125440
190,000 Nov-22 1310 117760
180,000 -6% Dec-22 1274 115200
170,000 -9% Jan-23 1310 119040
160,000
-8% Feb-23
150,000 -6%
+1% +3%
140,000 -1% -2%
130,000
120,000
110,000
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
Source: Crisil
Outlook
In May, both international and domestic fell sharply due to weakened demand across global markets and prolonged Covid-19
restrictions in China. In June. Both international and domestic prices fell to their lowest levels in 18 months due to lower
crude oil prices, the ban on single-use plastics in many countries and excess supply. In July, prices fell due to the reduction in
crude oil prices, as a result of geo-political tensions. In August, domestic prices fell because of cheap import options available
from China and South Korea. International prices fell due to a fall in Styrene prices, which is a key feedstock ingredient in
ABS production. In September, prices declined owing to a sustained fall in Styrene prices - a key raw material in the
production of ABS. In October, domestic prices rose in tandem with crude oil and coal prices. In October and November,
international prices fell due to price drops in the three feedstocks, i.e., Acrylonitrile, Butadiene, and Styrene. In December,
prices fell sharply in tandem with crude oil prices. In January, prices increased due to stability in production activities,
combined with an increase in feedstock costs (Acrylonitrile and Butadiene) and a recovery in downstream offers.
Source: Crisil
Outlook
In March, prices continued to rise steeply along with crude oil prices. In April, prices decreases along with decrease in crude
oil prices. In June, both international and domestic prices fell sharply due to a decrease in crude oil prices, ban on single-use
plastics in various countries, and excess supply. In July, prices decreased due to sluggish demand in end-user markets, such
as the automotive and home appliance sectors. In August, domestic prices fell because of a decline in the demand of plastics
for packaging and insulation applications. International prices fell due to diminishing prices of crude oil in the international
market. In September, prices increased slightly due to higher energy costs. In October, international prices fell due to low
end-consumer demand caused by rising concerns over an economic slowdown and a slowdown in the construction sector.
Domestic prices rose on account of the high input cost of coal and crude oil. In November, International prices fell in tandem
with crude oil prices. Domestic prices remained stable. In December, prices fell sharply in tandem with the price of crude oil.
In January, prices increased as crude oil prices stabilized.
Rubber
Monthly Average
Prices
Period *Dom
195
Domestic
190 Domestic Price (RSS 4) Rs/Kg
(Rs/kg)
185 +2% -6%
180 +1% -1%
+4% Feb-22 164
175 0%
Mar-22 171
170 -9%
Apr-22 171
165
May-22 173
160 +2%
-3% Jun-22 176
155
-5%
150 +2% Jul-22 175
In February, prices remained stable. In March, prices rose due to sluggish production, import hurdles and rising crude oil
prices. In April, prices remained stable. In May, prices increased slightly in tandem with crude oil prices. In June, prices rose
slightly due to higher input costs. In July, prices decreased slightly due to lower demand on account of the monsoon season.
In August, prices decreased sharply as a result of erratic rainfall, subdued industrial demand, and a bearish outlook in
international markets. In September, prices continued to fall as a result of lower crude oil prices and increased production
leading to excess supply. In October, prices increased due to a rise in domestic demand; in tandem with crude oil prices. In
November, prices declined due to lower demand from tire-makers and other domestic bulk buyers, particularly in Kerala's
key markets. In December, prices declined on the back of poor demand from the tyre market, along with the onset of the peak
tapping season. In January and February, prices remained relatively stable.
Forex Movement
92 96
Dollar /Rs Euro /Rs +2%
90 0% 94
0%
88 92
0% +1%
86 90 -2% +6%
-1% +3% 0%
84 +2% 88 +1%
-1% 0%
+3% +2% -2%
82 86
0% -2% +1%
80 0% 84 +1%
+1% -1%
78 82
76 80
74 78
Jul-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Mar-22
Mar-22
May-22
Oct-22
May-22
Oct-22
Sep-22
Apr-22
Sep-22
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Dec-22
Feb-22
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Jan-23
Feb-23
Feb-23
114 80
112 Pound /Rs 100 Yen/ Rs
110
75
108 -1% -3% -8%
106 +3%
-2% 0% +8% 70 +2%
104 0%
+2% -5%
102 -5% -3%
-2% +8% +2%
100 -4% 65 +3%
+1% -1%
98 -2%
0%
96 -1%
60 0%
94
92
90 55
Jul-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Mar-22
Mar-22
May-22
Oct-22
May-22
Oct-22
Feb-22
Sep-22
Feb-22
Apr-22
Sep-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Jan-23
Feb-23
Source: SIAM
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
$ 76 76 76 77 78 80 79 80 82 82 82 83 83
₤ 102 100 99 95 98 96 96 92 92 93 101 98 100
€ 86 84 83 81 81 82 80 80 81 82 87 87 89
¥ 66 66 61 60 58 59 60 57 57 56 60 62 63
Crude Oil
Source: SIAM
80
70
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23
Commodity Specifications
Commodity International Domestic
Iron Ore IOECI635 Index (CIF China) Crisil
- (Fe63.5%) CIF China - Grade 1: 58% to below 60% Fe Fines
- Grade 2: 60% to below 62% Fe Fines
- Grade 3: 62% to below 65% Fe Fines
- Grade 4: 65% and above Fe Fines
Pig Iron Crisil Crisil
-Foundry grade FOB CIS -Foundry grade ex-factory, India
Stainless steel NA PwC Research
-G 304 CR Coil
-G 304 HR Coil
Crisil Crisil
Wire rod -CIS Black Sea (US $/Tonne) - Wire rods: 5.5 mm (Prices are inclusive of
excise duty by exclusive of VAT/Sales tax)
Steel Billets Crisil Crisil
-FOB CIS Black Sea - 100^100 mm (Avg. prices collated from 2-
Previously: Bloomberg 3 locations)
Black Sea Steel Billet Spot FOB
Hot-rolled coils Crisil Crisil
-FOB Black Sea - 14G 2mm (Avg. prices collated from 2-3
locations)
Cold-rolled Crisil Crisil
coils -(CIS) FOB Black Sea - Mumbai 16G (Avg. prices collated from 2-3
locations)
Steel Scrap NA Crisil
- Heavy melting (excl. GST)
EN 8 NA PwC Research
-EN8 Alloy forging
20MnCr5 NA PwC Research
-Alloy forging
Ferro chrome Crisil : FOB Hong Kong Cr 50% Crisil: Ex-factory Cr 60%
Ferro silicon Crisil Crisil
- FOB China Si 75% - Ex-factory Si 70%
Commodity Specifications
Commodity International Domestic
Aluminium LME NCDEX, MCX (July’19 onwards)
-Primary aluminium with impurities no -Primary aluminium 99.7% purity
greater than the chemical (minimum) form: ingots, T-bars,
composition of one of the registered
designations:
•P1020A in the North American and
International Registration Record
entitled “International Designations and
Chemical Composition Limits
for Unalloyed Aluminium” (revised
March 2007)
•Al99.70 in the GB/T 1196-2008
Standard entitled “Unalloyed
aluminium ingots for remelting”
Copper LME MCX
-Grade A copper must conform to the - Grade 1 electrolytic copper as per B115
chemical composition of one of specification
the following standards:
•BS EN 1978:1998 - Cu-CATH-1
•GB/T 467-2010 - Cu-CATH-1
•ASTM B115-10 - cathode Grade 1
Zinc LME NCDEX, MCX (July’19 onwards)
-Special high-grade zinc of 99.995% - Zinc of 99.995% minimum purity. Zinc
purity (minimum) must conform to must conform with the
the chemical composition of one of the 99.995% graded chemical composition of
following standards: BS EN 1179:1996 Standard
•BS EN 1179:2003 - 99.995% grade entitled “Zinc and Zinc alloys primary Zinc”
•ISO 752:2004 - ZN-1 grade Form: ingots
•ASTM B6-12 - LME grade
•GB/T 470-2008 - Zn99.995 grade
Lead LME MCX
- Lead of 99.97% purity (minimum) - Lead ingots with minimum purity of
conforming to BS EN 12659:1999 99.97%
- GB/T 469/2005
Commodity Specifications
Commodity International Domestic
Nickel LME NCDEX, MCX (July’19 onwards)
- Nickel of 99.80% purity (minimum) - 4”*4” approved pure cut Nickel of 99.80%
conforming to B39-79 (2013) purity (minimum)
- GB/T 6516-2010
Tin LME Bloomberg
- Tin of 99.85% purity (minimum) - Tin (min 99.85% ) $/tonne
conforming to BS EN 610:1996
Platinum Metal in sponge form with minimum purities of 99.95% for platinum and palladium,
and 99.9% for rhodium
Palladium
Rhodium
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