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prob1-midterm-2021

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prob1-midterm-2021

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© © All Rights Reserved
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Question 1 [10 – 8 points]

For all students of a certain class, Table 1 summarizes the times in minutes t (rounded to the nearest
minute), of students to complete an exam.

Minutes (t) 10-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-44


Number of students (f) 42 32 10 9 7
Table 1

a) Calculate the mean and standard deviation of these data (4 decimals).


b) Give the mode and use linear interpolation to approximate the value of the median (4 decimals).

Question 2 [8 – 4 points]
We consider one question of a multiple-choice test. The question of interest has k choices. Let A be
the event that you know the answer (through knowledge) to the question, and B be the event that
you get that question right (through knowledge or luck). The probability that you know the answer is
p, so P(A)=p. If you don’t know the answer, you pick one of the k choices at random.

a) What is the probability that you know the answer to the question, given that you answer the
question correctly? Thus, express P(A|B) in terms of p and k.
b) Can P(A|B) ever be equal to p? Explain your answer.

Question 3 [8 – 6 - 6 points ]

Peter has to buy lamps for his new apartment. In total he needs 11 lamps: 2 in the hall, 4 in the living
room, 3 in the kitchen and 2 in the bedroom.

Peter is going to a shop to buy the lamps. The shopkeeper shows him the possibilities.
There are 4 types of lamps that fit only in the hall.
There are 8 types of lamps that fit only in the living room.
There are 6 types of lamps that fit only in the kitchen.
There are 4 types of lamps that fit only in the bedroom.
There are enough items in stock for each type of lamp.

a) Peter will only buy the 4 lamps for the living room and the 2 lamps for the bedroom in this shop.
With how many different combinations of lamps he can go to the counter, if he allows himself to
pick multiple items of the same lamp type?

Peter has bought the lamps, but at a certain point in time, 3 out of the 11 lamps are defect.
Every lamp is equally likely to fail.

b) An electrician is coming to repair the lamps. What is the probability that the defect lamps are
divided over at least 2 areas (4 decimals)?
c) What is the probability that at least 2 lamps are defect in the living room (4 decimals)?

Question 4 [10 points]

Give an upper and lower bound for P(A ∪ B) in terms of only P(A) and P(B).

Question 5 [12 points]

Suppose X ~ HYP(n, M , N ). Derive E[X].


Question 6 [8 points]

The probability generating function of a random variable 𝑋𝑋 is given by:

1 2 1 1
𝐺𝐺𝑋𝑋 (𝑡𝑡) = 𝛼𝛼𝑡𝑡 3 + 𝑡𝑡 + 𝑡𝑡 +
12 3 2

Determine 𝛼𝛼 such that 𝐺𝐺𝑋𝑋 (𝑡𝑡) is indeed a probability generating function and determine 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 ≥ 2)
and 𝐸𝐸[𝑋𝑋].

Question 7 [8 – 4 – 8 points]

The number of phone calls coming in at the reception of a hotel during a specific hour, 𝑋𝑋, has the
following pdf:
1
⎧ 15 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑥𝑥 = 0
⎪2
𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑥𝑥 = 1, 𝑥𝑥 = 2 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑥𝑥 = 3
𝑓𝑓𝑋𝑋 (𝑥𝑥) = 15
⎨ 4 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑥𝑥 = 4 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑥𝑥 = 5
⎪ 15
⎩

a) Determine the variance of the number of phone calls coming in, during a specific hour.
The receptionist receives a bonus of 2.50 Euro for every phone call that is handled off well within
five minutes. In an hour, the number of phone calls handled off well within five minutes, 𝑊𝑊, is
binomially distributed. 𝑋𝑋 is the amount of trials and 𝑝𝑝 the success probability of handling off a phone
call well within 5 minutes. So the number of trials per hour is the number of phone calls coming in.

b) If the expected bonus of the receptionist is 2.00 Euro, what should be the value of 𝑝𝑝?
Now consider the random variable 𝑌𝑌, the number of rooms booked in the hotel, with pdf 𝑓𝑓𝑌𝑌 (𝑦𝑦) and
expected value 𝐸𝐸[𝑌𝑌].

c) Use Markov’s inequality to determine a lower bound for 𝑃𝑃(|𝑌𝑌| < 2𝐸𝐸[𝑌𝑌]).

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