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 Summary of Graphical Selection
Exercises
3 Measures of Location, Spread, and Skewness
Characterizing the Location of a Distribution
The Mode
The Median
The Arithmetic Mean
Interpreting the Mean of a Dichotomous Variable
The Weighted Mean
Comparing the Mode, Median, and Mean
Characterizing the Spread of a Distribution
The Range and Interquartile Range
The Variance
The Standard Deviation
Characterizing the Skewness of a Distribution
Selecting Measures of Location and Spread
Applying What We Have Learned
Exercises
4 Re-expressing Variables
Linear and Nonlinear Transformations
Linear Transformations: Addition, Subtraction, Multiplication, and Division
The Effect on the Shape of a Distribution
The Effect on Summary Statistics of a Distribution
Common Linear Transformations
Standard Scores
z-Scores
Using z-Scores to Detect Outliers
Using z-Scores to Compare Scores in Different Distributions
Relating z-Scores to Percentile Ranks
Nonlinear Transformations: Square Roots and Logarithms
 Nonlinear Transformations: Ranking Variables
Other Transformations: Recoding and Combining Variables
Recoding Variables
Combining Variables
Data Management Fundamentals – The Syntax File
Exercises
5 Exploring Relationships between Two Variables
When Both Variables Are at Least Interval-Leveled
Scatterplots
The Pearson Product Moment Correlation Coefficient
Interpreting the Pearson Correlation Coefficient
The Correlation Scale Itself Is Ordinal
Correlation Does Not Imply Causation
The Effect of Linear Transformations
Restriction of Range
The Shape of the Underlying Distributions
The Reliability of the Data
When at Least One Variable Is Ordinal and the Other Is at Least Ordinal: The
Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient
When at Least One Variable Is Dichotomous: Other Special Cases of the
Pearson Correlation Coefficient
The Point Biserial Correlation Coefficient: The Case of One at Least Interval
and One Dichotomous Variable
The Phi Coefficient: The Case of Two Dichotomous Variables
Other Visual Displays of Bivariate Relationships
Selection of Appropriate Statistic/Graph to Summarize a Relationship
Exercises
6 Simple Linear Regression
The “Best-Fitting” Linear Equation
The Accuracy of Prediction Using the Linear Regression Model
 The Standardized Regression Equation
R as a Measure of the Overall Fit of the Linear Regression Model
Simple Linear Regression When the Independent Variable Is Dichotomous
Using r and R as Measures of Effect Size
Emphasizing the Importance of the Scatterplot
Exercises
7 Probability Fundamentals
The Discrete Case
The Complement Rule of Probability
The Additive Rules of Probability
First Additive Rule of Probability
Second Additive Rule of Probability
The Multiplicative Rule of Probability
The Relationship between Independence and Mutual Exclusivity
Conditional Probability
The Law of Large Numbers
Exercises
8 Theoretical Probability Models
The Binomial Probability Model and Distribution
The Applicability of the Binomial Probability Model
The Normal Probability Model and Distribution
Using the Normal Distribution to Approximate the Binomial Distribution
Exercises
9 The Role of Sampling in Inferential Statistics
Samples and Populations
Random Samples
Obtaining a Simple Random Sample
Sampling with and without Replacement
Sampling Distributions
Describing the Sampling Distribution of Means Empirically
 Describing the Sampling Distribution of Means Theoretically: The Central
Limit Theorem
Central Limit Theorem (CLT)
Estimators and Bias
Exercises
10 Inferences Involving the Mean of a Single Population When σ Is Known
Estimating the Population Mean, µ, When the Population Standard Deviation,
σ, Is Known
Interval Estimation
Relating the Length of a Confidence Interval, the Level of Confidence, and the
Sample Size
Hypothesis Testing
The Relationship between Hypothesis Testing and Interval Estimation
Effect Size
Type II Error and the Concept of Power
Increasing the Level of Significance, α
Increasing the Effect Size, δ
Decreasing the Standard Error of the Mean,
Closing Remarks
Exercises
11 Inferences Involving the Mean When σ Is Not Known: One- and Two-Sample
Designs
Single Sample Designs When the Parameter of Interest Is the Mean and σ Is
Not Known
The t Distribution
Degrees of Freedom for the One-Sample t-Test
Violating the Assumption of a Normally Distributed Parent Population in the
One-Sample t-Test
Confidence Intervals for the One-Sample t-Test
Hypothesis Tests: The One-Sample t-Test
Effect Size for the One-Sample t-Test
 Two Sample Designs When the Parameter of Interest Is µ, and σ Is Not Known
Independent (or Unrelated) and Dependent (or Related) Samples
Independent Samples t-Test and Confidence Interval
The Assumptions of the Independent Samples t-Test
Effect Size for the Independent Samples t-Test
Paired Samples t-Test and Confidence Interval
The Assumptions of the Paired Samples t-Test
Effect Size for the Paired Samples t-Test
The Bootstrap
Summary
Exercises
12 Research Design: Introduction and Overview
Questions and Their Link to Descriptive, Relational, and Causal Research
Studies
The Need for a Good Measure of Our Construct, Weight
The Descriptive Study
From Descriptive to Relational Studies
From Relational to Causal Studies
The Gold Standard of Causal Studies: The True Experiment and Random
Assignment
Comparing Two Kidney Stone Treatments Using a Non-randomized Controlled
Study
Including Blocking in a Research Design
Underscoring the Importance of Having a True Control Group Using
Randomization
Analytic Methods for Bolstering Claims of Causality from Observational Data
(Optional Reading)
Quasi-Experimental Designs
Threats to the Internal Validity of a Quasi-Experimental Design
Threats to the External Validity of a Quasi-Experimental Design
Threats to the Validity of a Study: Some Clarifications and Caveats
 Threats to the Validity of a Study: Some Examples
Exercises
13 One-Way Analysis of Variance
The Disadvantage of Multiple t-Tests
The One-Way Analysis of Variance
A Graphical Illustration of the Role of Variance in Tests on Means
ANOVA as an Extension of the Independent Samples t-Test
Developing an Index of Separation for the Analysis of Variance
Carrying Out the ANOVA Computation
The Between Group Variance (MSB)
The Within Group Variance (MSW)
The Assumptions of the One-Way ANOVA
Testing the Equality of Population Means: The F-Ratio
How to Read the Tables and to Use the SPSS Compute Statement for the F
Distribution
ANOVA Summary Table
Measuring the Effect Size
Post-hoc Multiple Comparison Tests
The Bonferroni Adjustment: Testing Planned Comparisons
The Bonferroni Tests on Multiple Measures
Exercises
14 Two-Way Analysis of Variance
The Two-Factor Design
The Concept of Interaction
The Hypotheses That Are Tested by a Two-Way Analysis of Variance
Assumptions of the Two-Way Analysis of Variance
Balanced versus Unbalanced Factorial Designs
Partitioning the Total Sum of Squares
Using the F-Ratio to Test the Effects in Two-Way ANOVA
Carrying Out the Two-Way ANOVA Computation by Hand
 Decomposing Score Deviations about the Grand Mean
Modeling Each Score as a Sum of Component Parts
Explaining the Interaction as a Joint (or Multiplicative) Effect
Measuring Effect Size
Fixed versus Random Factors
Post-hoc Multiple Comparison Tests
Summary of Steps to Be Taken in a Two-Way ANOVA Procedure
Exercises
15 Correlation and Simple Regression as Inferential Techniques
The Bivariate Normal Distribution
Testing Whether the Population Pearson Product Moment Correlation Equals
Zero
Using a Confidence Interval to Estimate the Size of the Population Correlation
Coefficient, ρ
Revisiting Simple Linear Regression for Prediction
Estimating the Population Standard Error of Prediction, σY|X
Testing the b-Weight for Statistical Significance
Explaining Simple Regression Using an Analysis of Variance Framework
Measuring the Fit of the Overall Regression Equation: Using R and R2
Relating R2 To σ2Y|X

Testing R2 for Statistical Significance

Estimating the True Population R2: The Adjusted R2
Exploring the Goodness of Fit of the Regression Equation: Using Regression
Diagnostics
Residual Plots: Evaluating the Assumptions Underlying Regression
Detecting Influential Observations: Discrepancy and Leverage
Using SPSS to Obtain Leverage
Using SPSS to Obtain Discrepancy
Using SPSS to Obtain Influence
Using Diagnostics to Evaluate the Ice Cream Sales Example
 Using the Prediction Model to Predict Ice Cream Sales
Simple Regression When the Predictor Is Dichotomous
Exercises
16 An Introduction to Multiple Regression
The Basic Equation with Two Predictors
Equations for b, β, and RY.12 When the Predictors Are Not Correlated
Equations for b, β, and RY.12 When the Predictors Are Correlated
Summarizing and Expanding on Some Important Principles of Multiple
Regression
Testing the b-Weights for Statistical Significance
Assessing the Relative Importance of the Independent Variables in the
Equation
Measuring the Drop in R2 Directly: An Alternative to the Squared Part
Correlation
Evaluating the Statistical Significance of the Change in R2
The b-Weight as a Partial Slope in Multiple Regression
Multiple Regression When One of the Two Independent Variables Is
Dichotomous
The Concept of Interaction between Two Variables That Are at Least Interval-
Leveled
Testing the Statistical Significance of an Interaction Using SPSS
Centering First-Order Effects to Achieve Meaningful Interpretations of b-
Weights
Understanding the Nature of a Statistically Significant Two-Way Interaction
Interaction When One of the Independent Variables Is Dichotomous and the
Other Is Continuous
Exercises
17 Nonparametric Methods
Parametric versus Nonparametric Methods
Nonparametric Methods When the Dependent Variable Is at the Nominal
Level
 The Chi-Square Distribution (χ2)
The Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test
The Chi-Square Test of Independence
• Assumptions of the Chi-Square Test of Independence
Fisher’s Exact Test
• Calculating the Fisher Exact Test by Hand Using the Hypergeometric
Distribution
Nonparametric Methods When the Dependent Variable Is Ordinal-Leveled
Wilcoxon Sign Test
The Mann-Whitney U Test
The Kruskal-Wallis Analysis of Variance
Exercises
Appendix A Data Set Descriptions
Appendix B Generating Distributions for Chapters 8 and 9 Using SPSS Syntax
Appendix C Statistical Tables
Appendix D References
Appendix E Solutions to Exercises
Appendix F The Standard Error of the Mean Difference for Independent
Samples: A More Complete Account (Optional)
Index
 Preface
This text, in its third edition, capitalizes on the widespread availability of menu-driven
software packages to create a course of study that links good statistical practice to the
analysis of real data, and the many years of our combined experience teaching statistics to
undergraduate students at a liberal arts university and to graduate students at a large
research university from a variety of disciplines including education, psychology,
sociology, health, and policy analysis. The third edition continues to embrace and be
motivated by several important guiding principles.

First, and perhaps most important, we believe that a good data analytic plan must
serve to uncover the story behind the numbers, what the data tell us about the phenomenon
under study. To begin, a good data analyst must know his/her data well and have
confidence that it satisfies the underlying assumptions of the statistical methods used.
Accordingly, we emphasize the usefulness of diagnostics in both graphical and statistical
form to expose anomalous cases, which might unduly influence results, and to help in the
selection of appropriate assumption-satisfying transformations so that ultimately we may
have confidence in our findings. We also emphasize the importance of using more than
one method of analysis to answer fully the question posed and understanding potential
bias in the estimation of population parameters. In keeping with these principles, the third
edition contains an even more comprehensive coverage of essential topics in introductory
statistics not covered by other such textbooks, including robust methods of estimation
based on resampling using the bootstrap, regression to the mean, the weighted mean,
Simpson’s Paradox, counterfactuals and other topics in research design, and data
workflow management using the SPSS syntax file. A central feature of the book that
continues to be embraced in the third edition is the integration of SPSS in a way that
reflects practice and allows students to learn SPSS along with each new statistical method.

Second, because we believe that data are central to the study of good statistical
practice, the textbook’s website contains several data sets used throughout the text. Two
are large sets of real data that we make repeated use of in both worked-out examples and
end-of-chapter exercises. One data set contains forty-eight variables and five hundred
cases from the education discipline; the other contains forty-nine variables and nearly
forty-five hundred cases from the health discipline. By posing interesting questions about
variables in these large, real data sets (e.g., is there a gender difference in eighth graders’
expected income at age thirty?), we are able to employ a more meaningful and contextual
approach to the introduction of statistical methods and to engage students more actively in
the learning process. The repeated use of these data sets also contributes to creating a
more cohesive presentation of statistics; one that links different methods of analysis to
each other and avoids the perception that statistics is an often-confusing array of so many
separate and distinct methods of analysis, with no bearing or relationship to one another.

Third, we believe that the result of a null hypothesis test (to determine whether an
effect is real or merely apparent), is only a means to an end (to determine whether the
effect being studied is important or useful), rather than an end in itself. Accordingly, in our
presentation of null hypothesis testing, we stress the importance of evaluating the
magnitude of the effect if it is deemed to be real, and of drawing clear distinctions
between statistically significant and substantively significant results. Toward this end, we
introduce the computation of standardized measures of effect size as common practice
following a statistically significant result. While we provide guidelines for evaluating, in
general, the magnitude of an effect, we encourage readers to think more subjectively about
the magnitude of an effect, bringing into the evaluation their own knowledge and expertise
in a particular area.

Fourth, a course in applied statistics should not only provide students with a sound
statistical knowledge base but also with a set of data analytic skills. Accordingly, we have
incorporated the latest version of SPSS, a popularly-used statistical software package, into
the presentation of statistical material using a highly integrative approach. SPSS is used to
provide students with a platform for actively engaging in the learning process associated
with what it means to be a good data analyst by allowing them to apply their newly-
learned knowledge to the real world of applications. This approach serves also to enhance
the conceptual understanding of material and the ability to interpret output and
communicate findings.

Finally, we believe that a key ingredient of an introductory statistics text is a lively,

clear, conceptual, yet rigorous approach. We emphasize conceptual understanding through
an exploration of both the mathematical principles underlying statistical methods and real
world applications. We use an easy-going, informal style of writing that we have found
gives readers the impression that they are involved in a personal conversation with the
authors. And, we sequence concepts with concern for student readiness, reintroducing
topics in a spiralling manner to provide reinforcement and promote the transfer of
learning.

New to the third edition are the addition of other essential topics in introductory
statistics, including robust methods of estimation based on resampling using the bootstrap,
regression to the mean, the weighted mean and Simpson’s Paradox, counterfactuals,
potential sources of bias in the estimation of population parameters based on the analysis
of data from quasi-experimental designs, other issues related to research design contained
in a new chapter on research design, the importance of the SPSS Syntax file in workflow
management, an expanded bibliography of references to relevant books and journal
articles, and many more end-of-chapter exercises, with detailed answers on the textbook’s
website. Along with topics from the second edition, such as data transformations,
diagnostic tools for the analysis of model fit, the logic of null hypothesis testing, assessing
the magnitude of effects, interaction and its interpretation in two-way analysis of variance
and multiple regression, and nonparametric statistics, the third edition provides
comprehensive coverage of essential topics in introductory statistics. In so doing, the third
edition gives instructors flexibility in curriculum planning and provides students with
more advanced material for future work in statistics. Also new is a companion website that
includes copies of the data sets and other ancillary materials. These materials are available
at www.cambridge.org/weinberg3appendix under the Resources tab.

The book, consisting of seventeen chapters, is intended for use in a one- or two-
semester introductory applied statistics course for the behavioral, social, or health sciences
at either the graduate or undergraduate level, or as a reference text as well. It is not
intended for readers who wish to acquire a more theoretical understanding of
mathematical statistics. To offer another perspective, the book may be described as one
that begins with modern approaches to Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) and descriptive
statistics, and then covers material similar to what is found in an introductory
mathematical statistics text, such as for undergraduates in math and the physical sciences,
but stripped of calculus and linear algebra and instead grounded in data examples. Thus,
theoretical probability distributions, The Law of Large Numbers, sampling distributions,
and The Central Limit Theorem are all covered, but in the context of solving practical and
interesting problems.
Discovering Diverse Content Through
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struggled to keep his footing. Between them the girl uncomplainingly
picked her way upward.
And then they came to a place, as Stephen had hoped, where it was
necessary to scale a sheer scarp of six or seven feet in order to gain
a shelf near the summit. He had to kneel in order to help the girl up.
Turpan, not tall enough to pull himself up with his arms, cursed as his
boots slipped.
"Extend the barrel of your rifle to me," Stephen said, "and I will pull
you up until you are able to reach that overhanging bush. It will
support your weight."
Turpan nodded curtly. He was not happy about this. He was never
happy when playing a minor role, but he appreciated the urgency of
the moment.
Stephen pulled and the Bedchamber Assassin strained upward. Then
he grasped at the bush, and at the same moment Stephen gave a
sharp, Herculean tug.
Turpan snatched for the bush with both hands. "Got it," he said, and
swung himself upon the ledge.
"Yes," agreed Stephen, "but I have the rifle."

Turpan, fettered like a common criminal, lay upon his couch in the
tent where he had sat not long ago, a conqueror. The powerful
floodlight that shone in his face did nothing to sooth his raw temper.
Someone entered the tent and he strained in his bonds to see who it
was. Stephen came and stood over him.
Turpan licked his dry lips. "What time is it?" he asked.
"It is almost midnight. They have destroyed your rifle, but it has been
decided that, in view of your predatory nature, it would be dangerous
to release you again upon this colony. Are you prepared to meet your
fate?"
Turpan sneered. "Destroy me, fool—eunuch! It will not change your
lot here. You will remain an untouchable—an odd man out. May your
books comfort your cold bed for the rest of your life. I prefer death."
Stephen removed the hypodermic needle from the kit which they had
furnished him and filled it. He bared Turpan's arm. The muscles of
that arm were tense, like cords of steel. Turpan was lying. He was
frightened of death.
Stephen smiled a little. He looked a good deal younger when he
smiled. "Please relax," he said. "I am only a biological technician; not
an executioner."

Two hours later Stephen emerged from the tent, perspiring, and
found that the revel in the encampment continued unabated even at
this time of morning. Few suspected what had been going on in
Turpan's tent. These few now anxiously awaited his verdict.
"How did it go?" the former Planner of Flight One asked. "Was—the
equipment satisfactory? The drugs and chalones sufficient?"
He nodded wearily. "The character change appears to have been
complete enough. The passivity will grow, of course." A group of men
and women were playing a variety of hide-and-seek, with piercing
shouts and screams, among the shadows of the tents, and it was no
child's game.
"Don't worry about them," the Planner said. "They'll be over it in the
morning. Most of them have never had anything to drink before. Our
dictator's methods may have been cruder than we intended, but
they've certainly broken the ice."
"When will we see—Turpan?" someone asked. It was Ellen.
Stephen had not known that she was waiting. "Any moment now, I
believe," he said. "I will go in and see what is keeping him."
He returned in a few seconds. "A matter of clothing," he said with a
smile. "I warned you that there would be a complete character
change."
The garments were supplied. Stephen took them in. The floodlight
had been turned off now, and it was fairly dark in the tent.
"Hurry up," Stephen said gently.
"I can't—I cannot do it!"
"Oh, but you can. You can start all over now. Few of the colonists
ever knew you by sight. I am sure that you will be warmly enough
received."
Stephen came out. Ellen searched his face. "It will not be much
longer now," he told her.
"And to think that I doubted you!"
"I am only a technician," he said.
"There are one hundred and sixty-two male high scientists upon this
island," she said, coming forward and putting her arms around him,
"but only one, solid, unimaginative, blessed technician. It makes a
nice, even arrangement for us women, don't you think?"
"Even enough," he said. And at that moment Turpan stepped out of
the tent, and all of them looked. And looked. And Turpan, unable to
face that battery of eyes, ran.
Ran lightly and gracefully through the tent village toward the cliffs
beyond. And all along that gauntlet there were catcalls and wolf
whistles.
"Don't worry," the Planner said. "She will come back to us. After all,
there is a biological need."
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