Financial Model
Financial Model
INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal year 2016A 2017A 2018A
Fiscal year end date 9/30/16 9/30/17 9/29/18
Depreciation & amortization 10,505 10,157 10,903 From cash flow statement
EBITDA 70,529 71,501 81,801 EBIT + D&A
Stock based compensation 4,210 4,840 5,340 From cash flow statement
Adjusted EBITDA 74,739 76,341 87,141 EBITDA + Stock-based compensation
BALANCE SHEET
Fiscal year 2017A 2018A
Fiscal year end date 9/30/17 9/29/18
Cash & equivalents, ST and LT marketable securities 268,895 237,100
Accounts receivable 17,874 23,186
Inventories 4,855 3,956
Other current assets 31,735 37,896
Property, plant & equipment 33,783 41,304
Other non current assets 18,177 22,283
Total assets 375,319 365,725
Balance check 0 0
Additional data
Capital expenditures (enter as +) 12,734 12,451 13,313 Payments for PPE
D&A related only to PP&E (enter as -) (8,300) (8,200) (9,300) Property plant and equipment section
Dividends (enter as -) (12,188) (12,803) (13,735) Statement of shareholders equity schedule
Repurchases (enter as -) (29,000) (33,001) (73,056) Statement of shareholders equity schedule
Weighted average interest rate on commercial paper 1.20% 2.18% Check notes
Weighted average interest rate on cash 1.73% 1.99% 2.16% Check notes
Financial Statement Model for Apple
$ in thousands except per share
INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal year 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/16 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23 WSP Comments
Revenue 215,639 229,234 265,595 Previous year's revenues x (1+revenue growth rate)
Cost of sales (enter as -) (131,376) (141,048) (163,756) Plug = Revenue - Gross Profit
Gross Profit 84,263 88,186 101,839 Revenue x Gross Profit Margin forecast
Research & development (enter as -) (10,045) (11,581) (14,236) Revenue x R&D % of sales forecast
Selling, general & administrative (enter as -) (14,194) (15,261) (16,705) Revenue x SG&A % of sales forecast
Operating profit (EBIT) 60,024 61,344 70,898 Gross Profit - R&D - SG&A
Interest income 3,999 5,201 5,686 Reference from interest on cash schedule
Interest expense (enter as -) (1,456) (2,323) (3,240) Reference from interest expense schedule
Other expense, net (enter as -) (1,195) (133) (441) Straight-line
Pretax profit 61,372 64,089 72,903 EBIT + interest income less interest expense less other expense
Taxes (enter expense as -) (15,685) (15,738) (13,372) Pre-tax Profit x Tax Rate forecast
Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 Pre-tax Profit less taxes
Depreciation & amortization 10,505 10,157 10,903 Reference from D&A schedule
EBITDA 70,529 71,501 81,801 EBIT + D&A
Stock based compensation 4,210 4,840 5,340 WSP assumption: grow SBC in-line with revenue growth
Adjusted EBITDA 74,739 76,341 87,141 EBITDA + Stock-based compensation
BALANCE SHEET
Fiscal year 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23
Cash & equivalents, ST and LT marketable securities 268,895 237,100 Reference from 'net change in cash' line on the cash flow statement
Accounts receivable 17,874 23,186 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Inventories 4,855 3,956 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current assets 31,735 37,896 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Property, plant & equipment 33,783 41,304 Reference from PP&E schedule
Other non current assets 18,177 22,283 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total assets 375,319 365,725
Accounts payable 44,242 55,888 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current liabilities 30,551 32,687 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Deferred revenue (current and non current) 10,384 10,340 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Commercial paper / revolver 11,977 11,964 Reference from revolver schedule
Long term debt (includes current portion) 103,703 102,519 WSP assumption: straight-line
Other non current liabilities 40,415 45,180 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total liabilities 241,272 258,578
Common stock 35,867 40,201 Increase by stock-based compensation forecasted in the I/S section
Retained earnings 98,330 70,400 Reference from Retained Earnings schedule
Other comprehensive income (150) (3,454) WSP assumption: straight-line
Total equity 134,047 107,147
Balance check 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net income
Depreciation and amortization
Stock based compensation
Decreases / (Increases) in working capital assets
Increases / (Decreases) in working capital liabilities
Other non current assets Reference additions to 'other non-current assets' from schedule
Other non current liabilities
Cash from operating activities
Capital expenditures
Cash from investing activities
RETAINED EARNINGS
Beginning of period BOP = Previous year EOP
Plus: Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 Reference from income statement
Less: Dividends (12,188) (12,803) (13,735) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year dividends
Less: Repurchases (29,000) (33,001) (73,056) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year repurchases
End of period 0 98,330 70,400 BOP + net income - dividends - repurchases
Financial Statement Model for Apple
$ in thousands except per share
INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal year 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/16 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23 WSP Comments
Revenue 215,639 229,234 265,595 254,971 270,269 288,918 308,853 330,164 Previous year's revenues x (1+revenue growth rate)
Cost of sales (enter as -) (131,376) (141,048) (163,756) (158,592) (167,297) (178,551) (190,871) (204,042) Plug = Revenue - Gross Profit
Gross Profit 84,263 88,186 101,839 96,379 102,973 110,367 117,982 126,123 Revenue x Gross Profit Margin forecast
Research & development (enter as -) (10,045) (11,581) (14,236) (15,808) (17,027) (18,202) (19,458) (20,800) Revenue x R&D % of sales forecast
Selling, general & administrative (enter as -) (14,194) (15,261) (16,705) (18,868) (18,649) (19,935) (21,311) (22,781) Revenue x SG&A % of sales forecast
Operating profit (EBIT) 60,024 61,344 70,898 61,703 67,297 72,230 77,213 82,541 Gross Profit - R&D - SG&A
Interest income 3,999 5,201 5,686 Reference from interest on cash schedule
Interest expense (enter as -) (1,456) (2,323) (3,240) Reference from interest expense schedule
Other expense, net (enter as -) (1,195) (133) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) Straight-line
Pretax profit 61,372 64,089 72,903 61,262 66,856 71,789 76,772 82,100 EBIT + interest income less interest expense less other expense
Taxes (enter expense as -) (15,685) (15,738) (13,372) (10,231) (11,366) (12,132) (12,975) (13,875) Pre-tax Profit x Tax Rate forecast
Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 51,031 55,491 59,656 63,798 68,225 Pre-tax Profit less taxes
Depreciation & amortization 10,505 10,157 10,903 Reference from D&A schedule
EBITDA 70,529 71,501 81,801 61,703 67,297 72,230 77,213 82,541 EBIT + D&A
Stock based compensation 4,210 4,840 5,340 5,126 5,434 5,809 6,210 6,638 WSP assumption: grow SBC in-line with revenue growth
Adjusted EBITDA 74,739 76,341 87,141 66,829 72,731 78,038 83,423 89,179 EBITDA + Stock-based compensation
BALANCE SHEET
Fiscal year 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23
Cash & equivalents, ST and LT marketable securities 268,895 237,100 290,535 355,783 426,721 502,672 583,889 Reference from 'net change in cash' line on the cash flow statement
Accounts receivable 17,874 23,186 22,259 23,594 25,222 26,962 28,823 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Inventories 4,855 3,956 3,831 4,042 4,313 4,611 4,929 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current assets 31,735 37,896 36,380 38,563 41,224 44,068 47,109 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Property, plant & equipment 33,783 41,304 Reference from PP&E schedule
Other non current assets 18,177 22,283 21,392 22,675 24,240 25,912 27,700 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total assets 375,319 365,725 374,397 444,656 521,721 604,226 692,450
Accounts payable 44,242 55,888 54,126 57,096 60,937 65,142 69,637 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current liabilities 30,551 32,687 31,380 33,262 35,557 38,011 40,634 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Deferred revenue (current and non current) 10,384 10,340 9,926 10,522 11,248 12,024 12,854 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Commercial paper / revolver 11,977 11,964 Reference from revolver schedule
Long term debt (includes current portion) 103,703 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 WSP assumption: straight-line
Other non current liabilities 40,415 45,180 43,373 45,975 49,147 52,539 56,164 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total liabilities 241,272 258,578 241,323 249,375 259,409 270,235 281,807
Common stock 35,867 40,201 45,327 50,761 56,570 62,780 69,418 Increase by stock-based compensation forecasted in the I/S section
Retained earnings 98,330 70,400 Reference from Retained Earnings schedule
Other comprehensive income (150) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) WSP assumption: straight-line
Total equity 134,047 107,147 41,873 47,307 53,116 59,326 65,964
Capital expenditures
Cash from investing activities 0 0 0 0 0
Net change in cash during period 53,435 65,247 70,939 75,951 81,216
Financial Statement Model for Apple
$ in thousands except per share
INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal year 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/16 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23 WSP Comments
Revenue 215,639 229,234 265,595 254,971 270,269 288,918 308,853 330,164 Previous year's revenues x (1+revenue growth rate)
Cost of sales (enter as -) (131,376) (141,048) (163,756) (158,592) (167,297) (178,551) (190,871) (204,042) Plug = Revenue - Gross Profit
Gross Profit 84,263 88,186 101,839 96,379 102,973 110,367 117,982 126,123 Revenue x Gross Profit Margin forecast
Research & development (enter as -) (10,045) (11,581) (14,236) (15,808) (17,027) (18,202) (19,458) (20,800) Revenue x R&D % of sales forecast
Selling, general & administrative (enter as -) (14,194) (15,261) (16,705) (18,868) (18,649) (19,935) (21,311) (22,781) Revenue x SG&A % of sales forecast
Operating profit (EBIT) 60,024 61,344 70,898 61,703 67,297 72,230 77,213 82,541 Gross Profit - R&D - SG&A
Interest income 3,999 5,201 5,686 Reference from interest on cash schedule
Interest expense (enter as -) (1,456) (2,323) (3,240) Reference from interest expense schedule
Other expense, net (enter as -) (1,195) (133) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) Straight-line
Pretax profit 61,372 64,089 72,903 61,262 66,856 71,789 76,772 82,100 EBIT + interest income less interest expense less other expense
Taxes (enter expense as -) (15,685) (15,738) (13,372) (10,231) (11,366) (12,132) (12,975) (13,875) Pre-tax Profit x Tax Rate forecast
Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 51,031 55,491 59,656 63,798 68,225 Pre-tax Profit less taxes
Depreciation & amortization 10,505 10,157 10,903 11,085 11,712 12,226 13,365 14,604 Reference from D&A schedule
EBITDA 70,529 71,501 81,801 72,788 79,009 84,456 90,579 97,145 EBIT + D&A
Stock based compensation 4,210 4,840 5,340 5,126 5,434 5,809 6,210 6,638 WSP assumption: grow SBC in-line with revenue growth
Adjusted EBITDA 74,739 76,341 87,141 77,914 84,443 90,265 96,789 103,783 EBITDA + Stock-based compensation
BALANCE SHEET
Fiscal year 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23
Cash & equivalents, ST and LT marketable securities 268,895 237,100 200,896 174,501 153,748 137,964 127,421 Reference from 'net change in cash' line on the cash flow statement
Accounts receivable 17,874 23,186 22,259 23,594 25,222 26,962 28,823 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Inventories 4,855 3,956 3,831 4,042 4,313 4,611 4,929 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current assets 31,735 37,896 36,380 38,563 41,224 44,068 47,109 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Property, plant & equipment 33,783 41,304 45,043 48,611 51,948 55,219 58,400 Reference from PP&E schedule
Other non current assets 18,177 22,283 21,392 22,675 24,240 25,912 27,700 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total assets 375,319 365,725 329,801 311,986 300,695 294,737 294,382
Accounts payable 44,242 55,888 54,126 57,096 60,937 65,142 69,637 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current liabilities 30,551 32,687 31,380 33,262 35,557 38,011 40,634 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Deferred revenue (current and non current) 10,384 10,340 9,926 10,522 11,248 12,024 12,854 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Commercial paper / revolver 11,977 11,964 Reference from revolver schedule
Long term debt (includes current portion) 103,703 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 WSP assumption: straight-line
Other non current liabilities 40,415 45,180 43,373 45,975 49,147 52,539 56,164 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total liabilities 241,272 258,578 241,323 249,375 259,409 270,235 281,807
Common stock 35,867 40,201 45,327 50,761 56,570 62,780 69,418 Increase by stock-based compensation forecasted in the I/S section
Retained earnings 98,330 70,400 34,640 3,340 (23,795) (46,788) (65,354) Reference from Retained Earnings schedule
Other comprehensive income (150) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) WSP assumption: straight-line
Total equity 134,047 107,147 76,514 50,647 29,321 12,538 610
Net change in cash during period (36,204) (26,395) (20,753) (15,784) (10,543)
RETAINED EARNINGS
Beginning of period 70,400 34,640 3,340 (23,795) (46,788) BOP = Previous year EOP
Plus: Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 51,031 55,491 59,656 63,798 68,225 Reference from income statement
Less: Dividends (12,188) (12,803) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year dividends
Less: Repurchases (29,000) (33,001) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year repurchases
End of period 0 98,330 70,400 34,640 3,340 (23,795) (46,788) (65,354) BOP + net income - dividends - repurchases
Financial Statement Model for Apple
$ in thousands except per share
INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal year 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/16 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23 WSP Comments
Revenue 215,639 229,234 265,595 254,971 270,269 288,918 308,853 330,164 Previous year's revenues x (1+revenue growth rate)
Cost of sales (enter as -) (131,376) (141,048) (163,756) (158,592) (167,297) (178,551) (190,871) (204,042) Plug = Revenue - Gross Profit
Gross Profit 84,263 88,186 101,839 96,379 102,973 110,367 117,982 126,123 Revenue x Gross Profit Margin forecast
Research & development (enter as -) (10,045) (11,581) (14,236) (15,808) (17,027) (18,202) (19,458) (20,800) Revenue x R&D % of sales forecast
Selling, general & administrative (enter as -) (14,194) (15,261) (16,705) (18,868) (18,649) (19,935) (21,311) (22,781) Revenue x SG&A % of sales forecast
Operating profit (EBIT) 60,024 61,344 70,898 61,703 67,297 72,230 77,213 82,541 Gross Profit - R&D - SG&A
Interest income 3,999 5,201 5,686 Reference from interest on cash schedule
Interest expense (enter as -) (1,456) (2,323) (3,240) Reference from interest expense schedule
Other expense, net (enter as -) (1,195) (133) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) Straight-line
Pretax profit 61,372 64,089 72,903 61,262 66,856 71,789 76,772 82,100 EBIT + interest income less interest expense less other expense
Taxes (enter expense as -) (15,685) (15,738) (13,372) (10,231) (11,366) (12,132) (12,975) (13,875) Pre-tax Profit x Tax Rate forecast
Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 51,031 55,491 59,656 63,798 68,225 Pre-tax Profit less taxes
Depreciation & amortization 10,505 10,157 10,903 11,085 11,712 12,226 13,365 14,604 Reference from D&A schedule
EBITDA 70,529 71,501 81,801 72,788 79,009 84,456 90,579 97,145 EBIT + D&A
Stock based compensation 4,210 4,840 5,340 5,126 5,434 5,809 6,210 6,638 WSP assumption: grow SBC in-line with revenue growth
Adjusted EBITDA 74,739 76,341 87,141 77,914 84,443 90,265 96,789 103,783 EBITDA + Stock-based compensation
BALANCE SHEET
Fiscal year 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23
Cash & equivalents, ST and LT marketable securities 268,895 237,100 200,896 174,501 153,748 137,964 127,421 Reference from 'net change in cash' line on the cash flow statement
Accounts receivable 17,874 23,186 22,259 23,594 25,222 26,962 28,823 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Inventories 4,855 3,956 3,831 4,042 4,313 4,611 4,929 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current assets 31,735 37,896 36,380 38,563 41,224 44,068 47,109 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Property, plant & equipment 33,783 41,304 45,043 48,611 51,948 55,219 58,400 Reference from PP&E schedule
Other non current assets 18,177 22,283 21,392 22,675 24,240 25,912 27,700 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total assets 375,319 365,725 329,801 311,986 300,695 294,737 294,382
Accounts payable 44,242 55,888 54,126 57,096 60,937 65,142 69,637 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current liabilities 30,551 32,687 31,380 33,262 35,557 38,011 40,634 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Deferred revenue (current and non current) 10,384 10,340 9,926 10,522 11,248 12,024 12,854 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Commercial paper / revolver 11,977 11,964 Reference EOP balance from CP/revolver schedule
Long term debt (includes current portion) 103,703 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 WSP assumption: straight-line
Other non current liabilities 40,415 45,180 43,373 45,975 49,147 52,539 56,164 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total liabilities 241,272 258,578 241,323 249,375 259,409 270,235 281,807
Common stock 35,867 40,201 45,327 50,761 56,570 62,780 69,418 Increase by stock-based compensation forecasted in the I/S section
Retained earnings 98,330 70,400 34,640 3,340 (23,795) (46,788) (65,354) Reference from Retained Earnings schedule
Other comprehensive income (150) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) WSP assumption: straight-line
Total equity 134,047 107,147 76,514 50,647 29,321 12,538 610
Capital expenditures (13,285) (13,649) (13,819) (14,773) (15,792) Reference from PP&E schedule
Cash from investing activities (13,285) (13,649) (13,819) (14,773) (15,792)
Net change in cash during period (36,204) (26,395) (20,753) (15,784) (10,543)
RETAINED EARNINGS
Beginning of period 70,400 34,640 3,340 (23,795) (46,788) BOP = Previous year EOP
Plus: Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 51,031 55,491 59,656 63,798 68,225 Reference from income statement
Less: Dividends (12,188) (12,803) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year dividends
Less: Repurchases (29,000) (33,001) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year repurchases
End of period 0 98,330 70,400 34,640 3,340 (23,795) (46,788) (65,354) BOP + net income - dividends - repurchases
Total interest expense 1,456 2,323 3,240 Interest expense from revolver/CP + interest expense from long term debt
INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal year 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/16 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23 WSP Comments
Revenue 215,639 229,234 265,595 254,971 270,269 288,918 308,853 330,164 Previous year's revenues x (1+revenue growth rate)
Cost of sales (enter as -) (131,376) (141,048) (163,756) (158,592) (167,297) (178,551) (190,871) (204,042) Plug = Revenue - Gross Profit
Gross Profit 84,263 88,186 101,839 96,379 102,973 110,367 117,982 126,123 Revenue x Gross Profit Margin forecast
Research & development (enter as -) (10,045) (11,581) (14,236) (15,808) (17,027) (18,202) (19,458) (20,800) Revenue x R&D % of sales forecast
Selling, general & administrative (enter as -) (14,194) (15,261) (16,705) (18,868) (18,649) (19,935) (21,311) (22,781) Revenue x SG&A % of sales forecast
Operating profit (EBIT) 60,024 61,344 70,898 61,703 67,297 72,230 77,213 82,541 Gross Profit - R&D - SG&A
Interest income 3,999 5,201 5,686 4,744 4,090 3,592 3,201 2,913 Reference from interest on cash schedule
Interest expense (enter as -) (1,456) (2,323) (3,240) (3,223) (3,224) (3,224) (3,224) (3,224) Reference from interest expense schedule
Other expense, net (enter as -) (1,195) (133) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) Straight-line
Pretax profit 61,372 64,089 72,903 62,783 67,723 72,157 76,749 81,790 EBIT + interest income less interest expense less other expense
Taxes (enter expense as -) (15,685) (15,738) (13,372) (10,485) (11,513) (12,195) (12,971) (13,822) Pre-tax Profit x Tax Rate forecast
Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 52,299 56,210 59,963 63,779 67,967 Pre-tax Profit less taxes
Depreciation & amortization 10,505 10,157 10,903 11,085 11,712 12,226 13,365 14,604 Reference from D&A schedule
EBITDA 70,529 71,501 81,801 72,788 79,009 84,456 90,579 97,145 EBIT + D&A
Stock based compensation 4,210 4,840 5,340 5,126 5,434 5,809 6,210 6,638 WSP assumption: grow SBC in-line with revenue growth
Adjusted EBITDA 74,739 76,341 87,141 77,914 84,443 90,265 96,789 103,783 EBITDA + Stock-based compensation
BALANCE SHEET
Fiscal year 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23
Cash & equivalents, ST and LT marketable securities 268,895 237,100 202,200 176,524 156,077 140,274 129,472 Reference from 'net change in cash' line on the cash flow statement
Accounts receivable 17,874 23,186 22,259 23,594 25,222 26,962 28,823 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Inventories 4,855 3,956 3,831 4,042 4,313 4,611 4,929 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current assets 31,735 37,896 36,380 38,563 41,224 44,068 47,109 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Property, plant & equipment 33,783 41,304 45,043 48,611 51,948 55,219 58,400 Reference from PP&E schedule
Other non current assets 18,177 22,283 21,392 22,675 24,240 25,912 27,700 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total assets 375,319 365,725 331,104 314,009 303,024 297,046 296,433
Accounts payable 44,242 55,888 54,126 57,096 60,937 65,142 69,637 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current liabilities 30,551 32,687 31,380 33,262 35,557 38,011 40,634 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Deferred revenue (current and non current) 10,384 10,340 9,926 10,522 11,248 12,024 12,854 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Commercial paper / revolver 11,977 11,964 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 Reference EOP balance from CP/revolver schedule
Long term debt (includes current portion) 103,703 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 WSP assumption: straight-line
Other non current liabilities 40,415 45,180 43,373 45,975 49,147 52,539 56,164 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total liabilities 241,272 258,578 253,323 261,375 271,409 282,235 293,807
Common stock 35,867 40,201 45,327 50,761 56,570 62,780 69,418 Increase by stock-based compensation forecasted in the I/S section
Retained earnings 98,330 70,400 35,908 5,326 (21,502) (44,514) (63,338) Reference from Retained Earnings schedule
Other comprehensive income (150) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) WSP assumption: straight-line
Total equity 134,047 107,147 77,781 52,634 31,614 14,812 2,626
Balance check 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Capital expenditures (13,285) (13,649) (13,819) (14,773) (15,792) Reference from PP&E schedule
Cash from investing activities (13,285) (13,649) (13,819) (14,773) (15,792)
Net change in cash during period (34,900) (25,676) (20,447) (15,803) (10,801)
RETAINED EARNINGS
Beginning of period 70,400 35,908 5,326 (21,502) (44,514) BOP = Previous year EOP
Plus: Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 52,299 56,210 59,963 63,779 67,967 Reference from income statement
Less: Dividends (12,188) (12,803) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year dividends
Less: Repurchases (29,000) (33,001) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year repurchases
End of period 0 98,330 70,400 35,908 5,326 (21,502) (44,514) (63,338) BOP + net income - dividends - repurchases
Total interest expense (from I/S) 1,456 2,323 3,240 3,223 3,224 3,224 3,224 3,224 Interest expense from revolver/CP + interest expense from long term debt
INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal year 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/16 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23 WSP Comments
Revenue 215,639 229,234 265,595 254,971 270,269 288,918 308,853 330,164 Previous year's revenues x (1+revenue growth rate)
Cost of sales (enter as -) (131,376) (141,048) (163,756) (158,592) (167,297) (178,551) (190,871) (204,042) Plug = Revenue - Gross Profit
Gross Profit 84,263 88,186 101,839 96,379 102,973 110,367 117,982 126,123 Revenue x Gross Profit Margin forecast
Research & development (enter as -) (10,045) (11,581) (14,236) (15,808) (17,027) (18,202) (19,458) (20,800) Revenue x R&D % of sales forecast
Selling, general & administrative (enter as -) (14,194) (15,261) (16,705) (18,868) (18,649) (19,935) (21,311) (22,781) Revenue x SG&A % of sales forecast
Operating profit (EBIT) 60,024 61,344 70,898 61,703 67,297 72,230 77,213 82,541 Gross Profit - R&D - SG&A
Interest income 3,999 5,201 5,686 4,855 4,562 4,589 4,760 5,063 Reference from interest on cash schedule
Interest expense (enter as -) (1,456) (2,323) (3,240) (3,223) (3,224) (3,224) (3,224) (3,224) Reference from interest expense schedule
Other expense, net (enter as -) (1,195) (133) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) Straight-line
Pretax profit 61,372 64,089 72,903 62,894 68,194 73,154 78,309 83,939 EBIT + interest income less interest expense less other expense
Taxes (enter expense as -) (15,685) (15,738) (13,372) (10,503) (11,593) (12,363) (13,234) (14,186) Pre-tax Profit x Tax Rate forecast
Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 52,391 56,601 60,791 65,075 69,753 Pre-tax Profit less taxes
Depreciation & amortization 10,505 10,157 10,903 11,085 11,712 12,226 13,365 14,604 Reference from D&A schedule
EBITDA 70,529 71,501 81,801 72,788 79,009 84,456 90,579 97,145 EBIT + D&A
Stock based compensation 4,210 4,840 5,340 5,126 5,434 5,809 6,210 6,638 WSP assumption: grow SBC in-line with revenue growth
Adjusted EBITDA 74,739 76,341 87,141 77,914 84,443 90,265 96,789 103,783 EBITDA + Stock-based compensation
BALANCE SHEET
Fiscal year 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23
Cash & equivalents, ST and LT marketable securities 268,895 237,100 212,430 209,969 214,950 225,807 242,958 Reference from 'net change in cash' line on the cash flow statement
Accounts receivable 17,874 23,186 22,259 23,594 25,222 26,962 28,823 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Inventories 4,855 3,956 3,831 4,042 4,313 4,611 4,929 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current assets 31,735 37,896 36,380 38,563 41,224 44,068 47,109 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Property, plant & equipment 33,783 41,304 45,043 48,611 51,948 55,219 58,400 Reference from PP&E schedule
Other non current assets 18,177 22,283 21,392 22,675 24,240 25,912 27,700 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total assets 375,319 365,725 341,334 347,453 361,897 382,580 409,919
Accounts payable 44,242 55,888 54,126 57,096 60,937 65,142 69,637 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current liabilities 30,551 32,687 31,380 33,262 35,557 38,011 40,634 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Deferred revenue (current and non current) 10,384 10,340 9,926 10,522 11,248 12,024 12,854 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Commercial paper / revolver 11,977 11,964 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 Reference EOP balance from CP/revolver schedule
Long term debt (includes current portion) 103,703 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 WSP assumption: straight-line
Other non current liabilities 40,415 45,180 43,373 45,975 49,147 52,539 56,164 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total liabilities 241,272 258,578 253,323 261,375 271,409 282,235 293,807
Common stock 35,867 40,201 40,201 40,201 40,201 40,201 40,201 Increase by stock-based compensation forecasted in the I/S section
Retained earnings 98,330 70,400 (34,400) (30,190) (26,000) (21,716) (17,038) Reference from Retained Earnings schedule
Other comprehensive income (150) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) WSP assumption: straight-line
Total equity 134,047 107,147 2,347 6,557 10,747 15,031 19,709
Capital expenditures (13,285) (13,649) (13,819) (14,773) (15,792) Reference from PP&E schedule
Cash from investing activities (13,285) (13,649) (13,819) (14,773) (15,792)
Net change in cash during period (24,670) (2,461) 4,982 10,857 17,151
RETAINED EARNINGS
Beginning of period 70,400 36,000 5,810 (20,190) (41,906) BOP = Previous year EOP
Plus: Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 52,391 56,601 60,791 65,075 69,753 Reference from income statement
Less: Dividends (12,188) (12,803) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year dividends
Less: Repurchases (29,000) (33,001) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year repurchases
End of period 0 98,330 70,400 36,000 5,810 (20,190) (41,906) (58,944) BOP + net income - dividends - repurchases
Total interest expense (from I/S) 1,456 2,323 3,240 3,223 3,224 3,224 3,224 3,224 Interest expense from revolver/CP + interest expense from long term debt
INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal year 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/16 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23 WSP Comments
Revenue 215,639 229,234 265,595 254,971 270,269 288,918 308,853 330,164 Previous year's revenues x (1+revenue growth rate)
Cost of sales (enter as -) (131,376) (141,048) (163,756) (158,592) (167,297) (178,551) (190,871) (204,042) Plug = Revenue - Gross Profit
Gross Profit 84,263 88,186 101,839 96,379 102,973 110,367 117,982 126,123 Revenue x Gross Profit Margin forecast
Research & development (enter as -) (10,045) (11,581) (14,236) (15,808) (17,027) (18,202) (19,458) (20,800) Revenue x R&D % of sales forecast
Selling, general & administrative (enter as -) (14,194) (15,261) (16,705) (18,868) (18,649) (19,935) (21,311) (22,781) Revenue x SG&A % of sales forecast
Operating profit (EBIT) 60,024 61,344 70,898 61,703 67,297 72,230 77,213 82,541 Gross Profit - R&D - SG&A
Interest income 3,999 5,201 5,686 4,744 4,090 3,592 3,201 2,913 Reference from interest on cash schedule
Interest expense (enter as -) (1,456) (2,323) (3,240) (3,223) (3,224) (3,224) (3,224) (3,224) Reference from interest expense schedule
Other expense, net (enter as -) (1,195) (133) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) Straight-line
Pretax profit 61,372 64,089 72,903 62,783 67,723 72,157 76,749 81,790 EBIT + interest income less interest expense less other expense
Taxes (enter expense as -) (15,685) (15,738) (13,372) (10,485) (11,513) (12,195) (12,971) (13,822) Pre-tax Profit x Tax Rate forecast
Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 52,299 56,210 59,963 63,779 67,967 Pre-tax Profit less taxes
Depreciation & amortization 10,505 10,157 10,903 11,085 11,712 12,226 13,365 14,604 Reference from D&A schedule
EBITDA 70,529 71,501 81,801 72,788 79,009 84,456 90,579 97,145 EBIT + D&A
Stock based compensation 4,210 4,840 5,340 5,126 5,434 5,809 6,210 6,638 WSP assumption: grow SBC in-line with revenue growth
Adjusted EBITDA 74,739 76,341 87,141 77,914 84,443 90,265 96,789 103,783 EBITDA + Stock-based compensation
BALANCE SHEET
Fiscal year 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23
Cash & equivalents, ST and LT marketable securities 268,895 237,100 202,200 176,524 156,077 140,274 129,472 Reference from 'net change in cash' line on the cash flow statement
Accounts receivable 17,874 23,186 22,259 23,594 25,222 26,962 28,823 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Inventories 4,855 3,956 3,831 4,042 4,313 4,611 4,929 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current assets 31,735 37,896 36,380 38,563 41,224 44,068 47,109 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Property, plant & equipment 33,783 41,304 45,043 48,611 51,948 55,219 58,400 Reference from PP&E schedule
Other non current assets 18,177 22,283 21,392 22,675 24,240 25,912 27,700 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total assets 375,319 365,725 331,104 314,009 303,024 297,046 296,433
Accounts payable 44,242 55,888 54,126 57,096 60,937 65,142 69,637 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current liabilities 30,551 32,687 31,380 33,262 35,557 38,011 40,634 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Deferred revenue (current and non current) 10,384 10,340 9,926 10,522 11,248 12,024 12,854 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Commercial paper / revolver 11,977 11,964 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 Reference EOP balance from CP/revolver schedule
Long term debt (includes current portion) 103,703 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 WSP assumption: straight-line
Other non current liabilities 40,415 45,180 43,373 45,975 49,147 52,539 56,164 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total liabilities 241,272 258,578 253,323 261,375 271,409 282,235 293,807
Common stock 35,867 40,201 45,327 50,761 56,570 62,780 69,418 Increase by stock-based compensation forecasted in the I/S section
Retained earnings 98,330 70,400 35,908 5,326 (21,502) (44,514) (63,338) Reference from Retained Earnings schedule
Other comprehensive income (150) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) WSP assumption: straight-line
Total equity 134,047 107,147 77,781 52,634 31,614 14,812 2,626
Balance check 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Capital expenditures (13,285) (13,649) (13,819) (14,773) (15,792) Reference from PP&E schedule
Cash from investing activities (13,285) (13,649) (13,819) (14,773) (15,792)
Net change in cash during period (34,900) (25,676) (20,447) (15,803) (10,801)
RETAINED EARNINGS
Beginning of period 70,400 35,908 5,326 (21,502) (44,514) BOP = Previous year EOP
Plus: Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 52,299 56,210 59,963 63,779 67,967 Reference from income statement
Less: Dividends (12,188) (12,803) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year dividends
Less: Repurchases (29,000) (33,001) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year repurchases
End of period 0 98,330 70,400 35,908 5,326 (21,502) (44,514) (63,338) BOP + net income - dividends - repurchases
Total interest expense (from I/S) 1,456 2,323 3,240 3,223 3,224 3,224 3,224 3,224 Interest expense from revolver/CP + interest expense from long term debt
INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal year 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/16 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23 WSP Comments
Revenue 215,639 229,234 265,595 254,971 270,269 288,918 308,853 330,164 Previous year's revenues x (1+revenue growth rate)
Cost of sales (enter as -) (131,376) (141,048) (163,756) (158,592) (167,297) (178,551) (190,871) (204,042) Plug = Revenue - Gross Profit
Gross Profit 84,263 88,186 101,839 96,379 102,973 110,367 117,982 126,123 Revenue x Gross Profit Margin forecast
Research & development (enter as -) (10,045) (11,581) (14,236) (15,808) (17,027) (18,202) (19,458) (20,800) Revenue x R&D % of sales forecast
Selling, general & administrative (enter as -) (14,194) (15,261) (16,705) (18,868) (18,649) (19,935) (21,311) (22,781) Revenue x SG&A % of sales forecast
Operating profit (EBIT) 60,024 61,344 70,898 61,703 67,297 72,230 77,213 82,541 Gross Profit - R&D - SG&A
Interest income 3,999 5,201 5,686 4,744 4,090 3,592 3,201 2,913 Reference from interest on cash schedule
Interest expense (enter as -) (1,456) (2,323) (3,240) (3,223) (3,224) (3,224) (3,224) (3,224) Reference from interest expense schedule
Other expense, net (enter as -) (1,195) (133) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) Straight-line
Pretax profit 61,372 64,089 72,903 62,783 67,723 72,157 76,749 81,790 EBIT + interest income less interest expense less other expense
Taxes (enter expense as -) (15,685) (15,738) (13,372) (10,485) (11,513) (12,195) (12,971) (13,822) Pre-tax Profit x Tax Rate forecast
Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 52,299 56,210 59,963 63,779 67,967 Pre-tax Profit less taxes
Depreciation & amortization 10,505 10,157 10,903 11,085 11,712 12,226 13,365 14,604 Reference from D&A schedule
EBITDA 70,529 71,501 81,801 72,788 79,009 84,456 90,579 97,145 EBIT + D&A
Stock based compensation 4,210 4,840 5,340 5,126 5,434 5,809 6,210 6,638 WSP assumption: grow SBC in-line with revenue growth
Adjusted EBITDA 74,739 76,341 87,141 77,914 84,443 90,265 96,789 103,783 EBITDA + Stock-based compensation
BALANCE SHEET
Fiscal year 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23
Cash & equivalents, ST and LT marketable securities 268,895 237,100 202,200 176,524 156,077 140,274 129,472 Reference from 'net change in cash' line on the cash flow statement
Accounts receivable 17,874 23,186 22,259 23,594 25,222 26,962 28,823 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Inventories 4,855 3,956 3,831 4,042 4,313 4,611 4,929 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current assets 31,735 37,896 36,380 38,563 41,224 44,068 47,109 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Property, plant & equipment 33,783 41,304 45,043 48,611 51,948 55,219 58,400 Reference from PP&E schedule
Other non current assets 18,177 22,283 21,392 22,675 24,240 25,912 27,700 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total assets 375,319 365,725 331,104 314,009 303,024 297,046 296,433
Accounts payable 44,242 55,888 54,126 57,096 60,937 65,142 69,637 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current liabilities 30,551 32,687 31,380 33,262 35,557 38,011 40,634 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Deferred revenue (current and non current) 10,384 10,340 9,926 10,522 11,248 12,024 12,854 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Commercial paper / revolver 11,977 11,964 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 Reference EOP balance from CP/revolver schedule
Long term debt (includes current portion) 103,703 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 WSP assumption: straight-line
Other non current liabilities 40,415 45,180 43,373 45,975 49,147 52,539 56,164 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total liabilities 241,272 258,578 253,323 261,375 271,409 282,235 293,807
Common stock 35,867 40,201 45,327 50,761 56,570 62,780 69,418 Increase by stock-based compensation forecasted in the I/S section
Retained earnings 98,330 70,400 35,908 5,326 (21,502) (44,514) (63,338) Reference from Retained Earnings schedule
Other comprehensive income (150) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) WSP assumption: straight-line
Total equity 134,047 107,147 77,781 52,634 31,614 14,812 2,626
Balance check 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Capital expenditures (13,285) (13,649) (13,819) (14,773) (15,792) Reference from PP&E schedule
Cash from investing activities (13,285) (13,649) (13,819) (14,773) (15,792)
Net change in cash during period (34,900) (25,676) (20,447) (15,803) (10,801)
RETAINED EARNINGS
Beginning of period 70,400 35,908 5,326 (21,502) (44,514) BOP = Previous year EOP
Plus: Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 52,299 56,210 59,963 63,779 67,967 Reference from income statement
Less: Dividends (12,188) (12,803) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year dividends
Less: Repurchases (29,000) (33,001) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year repurchases
End of period 0 98,330 70,400 35,908 5,326 (21,502) (44,514) (63,338) BOP + net income - dividends - repurchases
Total interest expense (from I/S) 1,456 2,323 3,240 3,223 3,224 3,224 3,224 3,224 Interest expense from revolver/CP + interest expense from long term debt
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Gross
Profit
Margin:
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Active case: Base case Variance from 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
base case 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23
Revenue growth
Gross profit margin
R&D % of sales
SG&A % of sales
Revenue growth
Best case 2.5% (1.5%) 8.5% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4%
Base case NM (4.0%) 6.0% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% JP Morgan estimates through 2021; straight-line growth rate thereafter
Weak case (2.5%) (6.5%) 3.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4%
Gross profit margin
Best case 1.0% 38.8% 39.0% 39.2% 39.2% 39.2%
Base case NM 37.8% 38.0% 38.2% 38.2% 38.2% JP Morgan estimates through 2021; straight-line margin thereafter
Weak case (1.0%) 36.8% 37.0% 37.2% 37.2% 37.2%
R&D % of sales
Best case (1.0%) 5.2% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3%
Base case NM 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% JP Morgan estimates through 2021: straight-line margin thereafter
Weak case 1.0% 7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3%
SG&A % of sales
Best case (1.0%) 6.4% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9%
Base case NM 7.4% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% JP Morgan estimates through 2021: straight-line margin thereafter
Weak case 1.0% 8.4% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%
$ amount of shares repurchased Reference from RE schedule - treasury repurchases (flip sign)
$ amount of new shares issued Reference SBC from I/S
Average share price $180.00 Last period share price x (1+growth rate)
Share price increase 15% 15% 15% 15% WSP assumption OR grow with net income growth rate (calculated below)
Financial Statement Model for Apple
$ in thousands except per share
INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal year 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/16 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23 WSP Comments
Revenue 215,639 229,234 265,595 272,235 270,269 288,918 308,853 330,164 Previous year's revenues x (1+revenue growth rate)
Cost of sales (enter as -) (131,376) (141,048) (163,756) (158,592) (167,297) (178,551) (190,871) (204,042) Plug = Revenue - Gross Profit
Gross Profit 84,263 88,186 101,839 99,366 102,973 110,367 117,982 126,123 Revenue x Gross Profit Margin forecast
Research & development (enter as -) (10,045) (11,581) (14,236) (16,879) (17,027) (18,202) (19,458) (20,800) Revenue x R&D % of sales forecast
Selling, general & administrative (enter as -) (14,194) (15,261) (16,705) (20,145) (18,649) (19,935) (21,311) (22,781) Revenue x SG&A % of sales forecast
Operating profit (EBIT) 60,024 61,344 70,898 62,342 67,297 72,230 77,213 82,541 Gross Profit - R&D - SG&A
Interest income 3,999 5,201 5,686 4,744 4,090 3,592 3,201 2,913 Reference from interest on cash schedule
Interest expense (enter as -) (1,456) (2,323) (3,240) (3,223) (3,224) (3,224) (3,224) (3,224) Reference from interest expense schedule
Other expense, net (enter as -) (1,195) (133) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) Straight-line
Pretax profit 61,372 64,089 72,903 62,783 67,723 72,157 76,749 81,790 EBIT + interest income less interest expense less other expense
Taxes (enter expense as -) (15,685) (15,738) (13,372) (10,485) (11,513) (12,195) (12,971) (13,822) Pre-tax Profit x Tax Rate forecast
Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 52,299 56,210 59,963 63,779 67,967 Pre-tax Profit less taxes
Depreciation & amortization 10,505 10,157 10,903 11,085 11,712 12,226 13,365 14,604 Reference from D&A schedule
EBITDA 70,529 71,501 81,801 70,386 79,009 84,456 90,579 97,145 EBIT + D&A
Stock based compensation 4,210 4,840 5,340 5,126 5,434 5,809 6,210 6,638 WSP assumption: grow SBC in-line with revenue growth
Adjusted EBITDA 74,739 76,341 87,141 75,512 84,443 90,265 96,789 103,783 EBITDA + Stock-based compensation
BALANCE SHEET
Fiscal year 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23
Cash & equivalents, ST and LT marketable securities 268,895 237,100 202,200 176,524 156,077 140,274 129,472 Reference from 'net change in cash' line on the cash flow statement
Accounts receivable 17,874 23,186 22,259 23,594 25,222 26,962 28,823 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Inventories 4,855 3,956 3,831 4,042 4,313 4,611 4,929 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current assets 31,735 37,896 36,380 38,563 41,224 44,068 47,109 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Property, plant & equipment 33,783 41,304 45,043 48,611 51,948 55,219 58,400 Reference from PP&E schedule
Other non current assets 18,177 22,283 21,392 22,675 24,240 25,912 27,700 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total assets 375,319 365,725 331,104 314,009 303,024 297,046 296,433
Accounts payable 44,242 55,888 54,126 57,096 60,937 65,142 69,637 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current liabilities 30,551 32,687 31,380 33,262 35,557 38,011 40,634 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Deferred revenue (current and non current) 10,384 10,340 9,926 10,522 11,248 12,024 12,854 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Commercial paper / revolver 11,977 11,964 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 Reference EOP balance from CP/revolver schedule
Long term debt (includes current portion) 103,703 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 WSP assumption: straight-line
Other non current liabilities 40,415 45,180 43,373 45,975 49,147 52,539 56,164 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total liabilities 241,272 258,578 253,323 261,375 271,409 282,235 293,807
Common stock 35,867 40,201 45,327 50,761 56,570 62,780 69,418 Increase by stock-based compensation forecasted in the I/S section
Retained earnings 98,330 70,400 35,908 5,326 (21,502) (44,514) (63,338) Reference from Retained Earnings schedule
Other comprehensive income (150) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) WSP assumption: straight-line
Total equity 134,047 107,147 77,781 52,634 31,614 14,812 2,626
Balance check 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Capital expenditures (13,285) (13,649) (13,819) (14,773) (15,792) Reference from PP&E schedule
Cash from investing activities (13,285) (13,649) (13,819) (14,773) (15,792)
Net change in cash during period (34,900) (25,676) (20,447) (15,803) (10,801)
RETAINED EARNINGS
Beginning of period 70,400 35,908 5,326 (21,502) (44,514) BOP = Previous year EOP
Plus: Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 52,299 56,210 59,963 63,779 67,967 Reference from income statement
Less: Dividends (12,188) (12,803) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year dividends
Less: Repurchases (29,000) (33,001) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year repurchases
End of period 0 98,330 70,400 35,908 5,326 (21,502) (44,514) (63,338) BOP + net income - dividends - repurchases
Total interest expense (from I/S) 1,456 2,323 3,240 3,223 3,224 3,224 3,224 3,224 Interest expense from revolver/CP + interest expense from long term debt
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Active case: Base case Variance from 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
base case 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23
Revenue growth NM (4.0%) 6.0% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9%
Gross profit margin NM 37.8% 38.1% 38.2% 38.2% 38.2%
R&D % of sales NM 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3%
SG&A % of sales NM 7.4% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9%
Revenue growth
Best case 2.5% (1.5%) 8.5% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4%
Base case NM (4.0%) 6.0% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% JP Morgan estimates through 2021; straight-line growth rate thereafter
Weak case (2.5%) (6.5%) 3.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4%
Gross profit margin
Best case 1.0% 38.8% 39.1% 39.2% 39.2% 39.2%
Base case NM 37.8% 38.1% 38.2% 38.2% 38.2% JP Morgan estimates through 2021; straight-line margin thereafter
Weak case (1.0%) 36.8% 37.1% 37.2% 37.2% 37.2%
R&D % of sales
Best case (1.0%) 5.2% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3%
Base case NM 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% JP Morgan estimates through 2021: straight-line margin thereafter
Weak case 1.0% 7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3%
SG&A % of sales
Best case (1.0%) 6.4% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9%
Base case NM 7.4% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% JP Morgan estimates through 2021: straight-line margin thereafter
Weak case 1.0% 8.4% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%
Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 52,299 56,210 59,963 63,779 67,967 Reference from I/S
Basic shares 5,471 5,217 4,955 4,578 4,251 3,969 3,725 3,514 Last period basic shares + ($ shares issued - $ shares repurchased)/Current period average share price
Basic EPS $8.35 $9.27 $12.01 $11.42 $13.22 $15.11 $17.12 $19.34 Net income / Basic shares
Diluted Shares 5,500 5,252 5,000 4,623 4,296 4,014 3,769 3,558 Basic shares + Dilutive securities
Diluted EPS $8.31 $9.21 $11.91 $11.31 $13.08 $14.94 $16.92 $19.10 Net income/Diluted Shares
$ amount of shares repurchased 73,056 73,056 73,056 73,056 73,056 Reference from RE schedule - treasury repurchases (flip sign)
$ amount of new shares issued 5,126 5,434 5,809 6,210 6,638 Reference SBC from I/S
Average share price $180.00 $207.00 $238.05 $273.76 $314.82 Last period share price x (1+growth rate)
Share price increase 15% 15% 15% 15% WSP assumption
Financial Statement Model for Apple
$ in thousands except per share
INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal year 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 5 Year
Fiscal year end date 9/30/16 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23 CAGR Comments
Revenue 215,639 229,234 265,595 254,971 270,269 288,918 308,853 330,164 4.4% Previous year's revenues x (1+revenue growth rate)
Cost of sales (enter as -) (131,376) (141,048) (163,756) (158,592) (167,297) (178,551) (190,871) (204,042) Plug = Revenue - Gross Profit
Gross Profit 84,263 88,186 101,839 96,379 102,973 110,367 117,982 126,123 Revenue x Gross Profit Margin forecast
Research & development (enter as -) (10,045) (11,581) (14,236) (15,808) (17,027) (18,202) (19,458) (20,800) Revenue x R&D % of sales forecast
Selling, general & administrative (enter as -) (14,194) (15,261) (16,705) (18,868) (18,649) (19,935) (21,311) (22,781) Revenue x SG&A % of sales forecast
Operating profit (EBIT) 60,024 61,344 70,898 61,703 67,297 72,230 77,213 82,541 3.1% Gross Profit - R&D - SG&A
Interest income 3,999 5,201 5,686 4,763 4,135 3,645 3,242 2,924 Reference from interest on cash schedule
Interest expense (enter as -) (1,456) (2,323) (3,240) (3,223) (3,224) (3,224) (3,224) (3,224) Reference from interest expense schedule
Other expense, net (enter as -) (1,195) (133) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) (441) Straight-line
Pretax profit 61,372 64,089 72,903 62,801 67,768 72,210 76,791 81,800 EBIT + interest income less interest expense less other expense
Taxes (enter expense as -) (15,685) (15,738) (13,372) (10,488) (11,521) (12,203) (12,978) (13,824) Pre-tax Profit x Tax Rate forecast
Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 52,314 56,247 60,006 63,813 67,976 2.7% Pre-tax Profit less taxes
Depreciation & amortization 10,505 10,157 10,903 11,085 11,712 12,226 13,365 14,604 Reference from D&A schedule
EBITDA 70,529 71,501 81,801 72,788 79,009 84,456 90,579 97,145 3.5% EBIT + D&A
Stock based compensation 4,210 4,840 5,340 5,126 5,434 5,809 6,210 6,638 Assumption: grow SBC in-line with revenue growth
Adjusted EBITDA 74,739 76,341 87,141 77,914 84,443 90,265 96,789 103,783 EBITDA + Stock-based compensation
BALANCE SHEET
Fiscal year 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23
Cash & equivalents, ST and LT marketable securities 268,895 237,100 203,880 178,999 158,486 141,730 128,989 Reference from 'net change in cash' line on the cash flow statement
Accounts receivable 17,874 23,186 22,259 23,594 25,222 26,962 28,823 Reference from A/R schedule
Inventories 4,855 3,956 3,831 4,042 4,313 4,611 4,929 Reference from Inventories schedule
Vendor non trade receivable 0 0 0 0 0 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Other current assets 31,735 37,896 36,380 38,563 41,224 44,068 47,109 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Property, plant & equipment 33,783 41,304 45,043 48,611 51,948 55,219 58,400 Reference from PP&E schedule
Other non current assets 18,177 22,283 21,392 22,675 24,240 25,912 27,700 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total assets 375,319 365,725 332,785 316,484 305,433 298,503 295,950
Accounts payable 44,242 55,888 54,126 57,096 60,937 65,142 69,637 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current liabilities 30,551 32,687 31,380 33,262 35,557 38,011 40,634 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Deferred revenue (current and non current) 10,384 10,340 9,926 10,522 11,248 12,024 12,854 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Commercial paper / revolver 11,977 11,964 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 Reference EOP balance from CP/revolver schedule
Long term debt (includes current portion) 103,703 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 102,519 Assumption: straight-line
Other non current liabilities 40,415 45,180 43,373 45,975 49,147 52,539 56,164 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total liabilities 241,272 258,578 253,323 261,375 271,409 282,235 293,807
Common stock 35,867 40,201 45,327 50,761 56,570 62,780 69,418 Increase by stock-based compensation forecasted in the I/S section
Retained earnings 98,330 70,400 37,588 7,802 (19,093) (43,058) (63,822) Reference from Retained Earnings schedule
Other comprehensive income (150) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) (3,454) Assumption: straight-line
Total equity 134,047 107,147 79,461 55,109 34,024 16,268 2,143
Balance check 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Capital expenditures (13,285) (13,649) (13,819) (14,773) (15,792) Reference from PP&E schedule
Cash from investing activities (13,285) (13,649) (13,819) (14,773) (15,792)
Net change in cash during period (33,220) (24,881) (20,513) (16,757) (12,741)
WORKING CAPITAL
Fiscal year 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A
Fiscal year end date 9/30/16 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23
Approach 1: Grow A/R with revenue growth rate (4.0%) 6.0% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9%
Approach 2: DSO Assumption #DIV/0!
Approach 1: Keep avg. inventory / COGS ratio constant 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
Approach 2: Inventory turnover (using 365 day year) 37.2x
Days payable outstanding 112 days 127 days 121 days 121 days 121 days 121 days
Net operating cycle (Cash conversion cycle) #DIV/0! -85 days -82 days -81 days -81 days -81 days
Memo
LT marketable securities (33,220) (58,101) (78,614) (95,370) (108,111) Assume all cash changes impact LT investments first
LT deferred revenue 0 0 0 0 0
LT term debt 0 0 0 0 0
Current assets 323,359 302,138 299,570 303,299 307,859 312,742 317,961
Current liabilities 200,857 213,398 209,951 215,400 222,262 229,696 237,643
Depreciation waterfall
Existing PP&E
Gross PP&E
Non-depreciable PP&E (i.e. land)
Accumulated depreciation
Net PP&E (excl. land)
RETAINED EARNINGS
Beginning of period 70,400 37,588 7,802 (19,093) (43,058) BOP = Previous year EOP
Plus: Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 52,314 56,247 60,006 63,813 67,976 Reference from income statement
Less: Dividends (12,188) (12,803) (13,735) (12,070) (12,977) (13,845) (14,723) (15,683) Based on flat DPR
Less: Repurchases (29,000) (33,001) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) Assumption: Straight-line last historical year repurchases
End of period 0 98,330 70,400 37,588 7,802 (19,093) (43,058) (63,822) BOP + net income - dividends - repurchases
Dividend payout ratio 26.7% 26.5% 23.1% 23.1% 23.1% 23.1% 23.1% 23.1% Assumption that DPR will stay the same
Total interest expense (from I/S) 1,456 2,323 3,240 3,223 3,224 3,224 3,224 3,224 Interest expense from revolver/CP + interest expense from long term debt
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Gross
Profit
Margin:
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Active case: Base case Variance from 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
base case 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23
iPhone ASP NM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Service revenue NM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gross profit margin NM 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
R&D % of sales NM 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SG&A % of sales NM 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
iPhone ASP
Best case 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Base case NM JP Morgan estimates through 2021; straight-line growth rate thereafter
Weak case 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Service revenue
Best case 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Base case NM
Weak case 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gross profit margin
Best case 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Base case NM 0.0% 0.0% JP Morgan estimates through 2021; straight-line margin thereafter
Weak case 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
R&D % of sales
Best case 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Base case NM 0.0% 0.0% JP Morgan estimates through 2021: straight-line margin thereafter
Weak case 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SG&A % of sales
Best case 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Base case NM 0.0% 0.0% JP Morgan estimates through 2021: straight-line margin thereafter
Weak case 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 52,314 56,247 60,006 63,813 67,976 Reference from I/S
Basic shares #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Last period basic shares + ($ shares issued - $ shares repurchased)/Current period average share price
Basic EPS #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Net income / Basic shares
Diluted Shares #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Basic shares + Dilutive securities
Diluted EPS #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Net income/Diluted Shares
$ amount of shares repurchased 73,056 73,056 73,056 73,056 73,056 Reference from RE schedule - treasury repurchases (flip sign)
$ amount of new shares issued (5,126) (5,434) (5,809) (6,210) (6,638) Reference SBC from I/S
Average share price $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Last period share price x (1+growth rate)
Share price increase WSP assumption
Price / volume build
Fiscal year 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/16 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/30/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23
Revenue by product
Core products
iPhone
iPad
Mac
Services CG estimates through 2020; WSP thereafter based on growth rate assumption
Other products CG estimates through 2020; WSP thereafter based on growth rate assumption
Total revenue
% growth
Units
iPhone CG estimates through 2020; Straight line therafter
iPad CG estimates through 2020; Straight line therafter
Mac CG estimates through 2020; Straight line therafter
Units % growth
iPhone
iPad
Mac
Services 24,348 29,980 37,190 45,603 53,592 62,981 74,014 86,980 CG estimates through 2020; WSP thereafter based on growth rate assumption
Other products 11,132 12,863 17,417 23,079 26,278 29,920 34,068 38,790 CG estimates through 2020; WSP thereafter based on growth rate assumption
Total revenue 215,639 229,234 265,595 252,990 265,377 278,408 293,588 311,277
% growth 6.3% 15.9% (4.7%) 4.9% 4.9% 5.5% 6.0%
Units
iPhone 211,884 216,756 217,722 173,700 190,880 190,880 190,880 190,880 CG estimates through 2020; Straight line therafter
iPad 45,590 43,753 43,535 46,170 49,260 49,260 49,260 49,260 CG estimates through 2020; Straight line therafter
Mac 18,484 19,251 18,209 19,670 19,140 19,140 19,140 19,140 CG estimates through 2020; Straight line therafter
Units % growth
iPhone 2.3% 0.4% (20.2%) 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
iPad (4.0%) (0.5%) 6.1% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mac 4.1% (5.4%) 8.0% (2.7%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal year 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/17 9/30/18 9/29/19 9/29/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23 9/30/24 WSP Comments
Revenue 215,639 229,234 265,595 260,174 275,784 294,814 315,156 336,901 360,148 Previous year's revenues x (1+revenue growth rate)
Cost of sales (enter as -) (131,376) (141,048) (163,756) 0 0 0 0 0 Plug = Revenue - Gross Profit
Gross Profit 84,263 88,186 101,839 260,174 275,784 294,814 315,156 336,901 360,148 Revenue x Gross Profit Margin forecast
Research & development (enter as -) (10,045) (11,581) (14,236) 0 0 0 0 0 Revenue x R&D % of sales forecast
Selling, general & administrative (enter as -) (14,194) (15,261) (16,705) 0 0 0 0 0 Revenue x SG&A % of sales forecast
Operating profit (EBIT) 60,024 61,344 70,898 260,174 275,784 294,814 315,156 336,901 360,148 Gross Profit - R&D - SG&A
Interest income 3,999 5,201 5,686 0 0 0 0 0 Reference from interest on cash schedule
Interest expense (enter as -) (1,456) (2,323) (3,240) 0 0 0 0 0 Reference from interest expense schedule
Other expense, net (enter as -) (1,195) (133) (441) 0 0 0 0 0 Straight-line
Pretax profit 61,372 64,089 72,903 260,174 275,784 294,814 315,156 336,901 360,148 EBIT + interest income less interest expense less other expense
Taxes (enter expense as -) (15,685) (15,738) (13,372) 0 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit x Tax Rate forecast
Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 260,174 275,784 294,814 315,156 336,901 360,148 Pre-tax Profit less taxes
Depreciation & amortization 10,505 10,157 10,903 (312) (458) (783) (541) (263) Reference from D&A schedule
EBITDA 70,529 71,501 81,801 260,174 275,473 294,356 314,373 336,360 359,885 EBIT + D&A
Stock based compensation 4,210 4,840 5,340 0 0 0 0 0 WSP assumption: grow SBC in-line with revenue growth
Adjusted EBITDA 74,739 76,341 87,141 260,174 275,473 294,356 314,373 336,360 359,885 EBITDA + Stock-based compensation
BALANCE SHEET
Fiscal year 2018A 2019A 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P
Fiscal year end date 9/29/19 9/29/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23 9/30/24
Cash & equivalents, ST and LT marketable securities 268,895 237,100 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Reference from 'net change in cash' line on the cash flow statement
Accounts receivable 17,874 23,186 0 0 0 0 0 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Inventories 4,855 3,956 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current assets 31,735 37,896 0 0 0 0 0 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Property, plant & equipment 33,783 41,304 3,739 7,307 10,644 13,915 17,096 Reference from PP&E schedule
Other non current assets 18,177 22,283 0 0 0 0 0 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total assets 375,319 365,725 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Accounts payable 44,242 55,888 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current liabilities 30,551 32,687 0 0 0 0 0 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Deferred revenue (current and non current) 10,384 10,340 0 0 0 0 0 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Commercial paper / revolver 11,977 11,964 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Reference EOP balance from CP/revolver schedule
Long term debt (includes current portion) 103,703 102,519 0 0 0 0 0 WSP assumption: straight-line
Other non current liabilities 40,415 45,180 0 0 0 0 0 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total liabilities 241,272 258,578 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Common stock 35,867 40,201 0 0 0 0 0 Increase by stock-based compensation forecasted in the I/S section
Retained earnings 98,330 70,400 188,993 397,016 625,381 875,491 1,148,848 Reference from Retained Earnings schedule
Other comprehensive income (150) (3,454) 0 0 0 0 0 WSP assumption: straight-line
Total equity 134,047 107,147 0 188,993 397,016 625,381 875,491 1,148,848
Capital expenditures (13,285) (13,649) (13,819) (14,773) (15,792) Reference from PP&E schedule
Cash from investing activities (13,285) (13,649) (13,819) (14,773) (15,792)
Net change in cash during period #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
RETAINED EARNINGS
Beginning of period 0 188,993 397,016 625,381 875,491 BOP = Previous year EOP
Plus: Net income 48,351 59,531 260,174 275,784 294,814 315,156 336,901 360,148 Reference from income statement
Less: Dividends (12,188) (12,803) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) (13,735) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year dividends
Less: Repurchases (29,000) (33,001) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) (73,056) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year repurchases
End of period 98,330 70,400 0 188,993 397,016 625,381 875,491 1,148,848 BOP + net income - dividends - repurchases
Total interest expense (from I/S) 2,323 3,240 0 0 0 0 0 0 Interest expense from revolver/CP + interest expense from long term debt
INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal year 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/16 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/29/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23 9/30/24 WSP Comments
Revenue 215,639 229,234 265,595 260,174 275,784 294,814 315,156 336,901 360,148 Previous year's revenues x (1+revenue growth rate)
Cost of sales (enter as -) (131,376) (141,048) (163,756) (161,782) (171,538) (183,374) (196,027) (209,553) (224,012) Plug = Revenue - Gross Profit
Gross Profit 84,263 88,186 101,839 98,392 104,247 111,440 119,129 127,349 136,136 Revenue x Gross Profit Margin forecast
Research & development (enter as -) (10,045) (11,581) (14,236) (16,217) (17,099) (18,278) (19,540) (20,888) (22,329) Revenue x R&D % of sales forecast
Selling, general & administrative (enter as -) (14,194) (15,261) (16,705) (18,245) (19,305) (20,637) (22,061) (23,583) (25,210) Revenue x SG&A % of sales forecast
Operating profit (EBIT) 60,024 61,344 70,898 63,930 67,843 72,524 77,528 82,878 88,596 Gross Profit - R&D - SG&A
Interest income 3,999 5,201 5,686 4,961 4,387 4,119 3,871 3,710 3,643 Reference from interest on cash schedule
Interest expense (enter as -) (1,456) (2,323) (3,240) (3,576) (3,569) (3,636) (3,636) (3,636) (3,636) Reference from interest expense schedule
Other expense, net (enter as -) (1,195) (133) (441) 422 422 422 422 422 422 Straight-line
Pretax profit 61,372 64,089 72,903 65,737 69,083 73,429 78,185 83,373 89,025 EBIT + interest income less interest expense less other expense
Taxes (enter expense as -) (15,685) (15,738) (13,372) (10,481) (11,014) (11,707) (12,466) (13,293) (14,194) Pre-tax Profit x Tax Rate forecast
Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 55,256 58,068 61,722 65,719 70,080 74,831 Pre-tax Profit less taxes
Depreciation & amortization 10,505 10,157 10,903 12,547 11,808 12,418 13,558 14,796 16,141 Reference from D&A schedule
EBITDA 70,529 71,501 81,801 76,477 79,651 84,942 91,086 97,674 104,737 EBIT + D&A
Stock based compensation 4,210 4,840 5,340 6,068 6,432 6,876 7,350 7,858 8,400 WSP assumption: grow SBC in-line with revenue growth
Adjusted EBITDA 74,739 76,341 87,141 82,545 86,083 91,818 98,437 105,532 113,137 EBITDA + Stock-based compensation
BALANCE SHEET
Fiscal year 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/17 9/29/18 9/29/19 9/30/20 9/30/21 9/30/22 9/30/23 9/30/24
Cash & equivalents, ST and LT marketable securities 268,895 237,100 205,898 194,727 181,481 172,040 166,750 165,986 Reference from 'net change in cash' line on the cash flow statement
Accounts receivable 17,874 23,186 22,926 24,302 25,978 27,771 29,687 31,735 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Inventories 4,855 3,956 4,106 4,354 4,654 4,975 5,318 5,685 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current assets 31,735 37,896 35,230 37,344 39,921 42,675 45,620 48,767 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Property, plant & equipment 33,783 41,304 37,378 39,817 42,051 44,156 46,103 47,861 Reference from PP&E schedule
Other non current assets 18,177 22,283 32,978 34,957 37,369 39,947 42,703 45,650 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total assets 375,319 365,725 338,516 335,500 331,454 331,564 336,182 345,686
Accounts payable 44,242 55,888 46,236 49,024 52,407 56,023 59,888 64,021 Grow in-line with cost of sales growth
Other current liabilities 30,551 33,327 37,720 39,983 42,742 45,691 48,844 52,214 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Deferred revenue (current) 10,384 5,966 5,522 5,853 6,257 6,689 7,150 7,644 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Commercial paper / revolver 11,977 11,964 5,980 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 Reference EOP balance from CP/revolver schedule
Long term debt (includes current portion) 103,703 102,519 102,067 102,067 102,067 102,067 102,067 102,067 WSP assumption: straight-line
Other non current liabilities 40,415 48,914 50,503 53,533 57,227 61,176 65,397 69,909 Grow in-line with revenue growth
Total liabilities 241,272 258,578 248,028 262,461 272,700 283,646 295,347 307,855
Common stock 35,867 40,201 45,174 51,606 58,482 65,832 73,690 82,089 Increase by stock-based compensation forecasted in the I/S section
Retained earnings 98,330 70,400 45,898 22,017 856 (17,330) (32,271) (43,675) Reference from Retained Earnings schedule
Other comprehensive income (150) (3,454) (584) (584) (584) (584) (584) (584) WSP assumption: straight-line
Total equity 134,047 107,147 90,488 73,039 58,754 47,918 40,835 37,831
Balance check 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Capital expenditures (12,926) (13,239) (14,152) (15,129) (16,173) Reference from PP&E schedule
Cash from investing activities (12,926) (13,239) (14,152) (15,129) (16,173)
Net change in cash during period (11,171) (13,246) (9,441) (5,290) (764)
RETAINED EARNINGS
Beginning of period 45,898 22,017 856 (17,330) (32,271) BOP = Previous year EOP
Plus: Net income 45,687 48,351 59,531 55,256 58,068 61,722 65,719 70,080 74,831 Reference from income statement
Less: Dividends (12,188) (12,803) (13,735) (14,129) (14,848) (15,782) (16,804) (17,920) (19,134) WSP assumption: Hold last historical year's dividend payout ratio constant
Less: Repurchases (29,000) (33,001) (73,056) (67,101) (67,101) (67,101) (67,101) (67,101) (67,101) WSP assumption: Straight-line last historical year repurchases
End of period 0 98,330 70,400 45,898 22,017 856 (17,330) (32,271) (43,675) BOP + net income - dividends - repurchases
Total interest expense (from I/S) 1,456 2,323 3,240 3,576 3,569 3,636 3,636 3,636 3,636 Interest expense from revolver/CP + interest expense from long term debt