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Deception
Deception

Counterdeception and Counterintelligence

Robert M. Clark
William L. Mitchell

Los Angeles
London
New Delhi
Singapore
Washington DC
Melbourne
 Copyright © 2019 by CQ Press, an imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. CQ
Press is a registered trademark of Congressional Quarterly, Inc.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any
form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying,
recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without
permission in writing from the publisher.

FOR INFORMATION:

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Clark, Robert M., author. | Mitchell, William L. (William Leslie), author.

Title: Deception : counterdeception and counterintelligence / Robert M. Clark and

William L. Mitchell.

Description: First edition. | Washington, DC : CQ Press, [2019] | Includes

bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2017036696 | ISBN 9781506375236 (pbk. : alk. paper)

Subjects: LCSH: Deception (Military science) | Deception. | Intelligence service. |

Military intelligence. | Deception (Military science)–Case studies.

Classification: LCC U167.5.D37 C53 2019 | DDC 355.3/432–dc23 LC record

available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017036696

Printed in the United States of America

This book is printed on acid-free paper.

Acquisitions Editor: Scott Greenan

Editorial Assistant: Sarah Christensen

Production Editor: Tracy Buyan

Copy Editor: Amy Marks

Typesetter: Hurix Digital

Proofreader: Annie Lubinsky

Indexer: Amy Murphy

Cover Designer: Scott Van Atta

Marketing Manager: Jennifer Jones

Brief Contents
List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes
Preface
About the Authors
Part I: Fundamentals of Deception and Counterdeception
Chapter 1. Deception: The Basics
Chapter 2. The Methodology
Chapter 3. The Outcome Scenario
Chapter 4. The Target
Chapter 5. The Story
Chapter 6. The Channels
Chapter 7. The Traditional Intelligence Channels
Chapter 8. The Cyberspace Channel
Chapter 9. Planning and Executing Deception
Chapter 10. Preparing to Counter Deception
Chapter 11. Identifying Deception
Part II: Exercises
Chapter 12. Sensor Mapping and Channel Tracking Exercises
Chapter 13. General Deception Planning Exercises
Chapter 14. Military Deception Planning Exercises
Chapter 15. Deception Detection Exercises
Bibliography
Index
Detailed Contents
List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes
Preface
About the Authors
Part I: Fundamentals of Deception and Counterdeception
Chapter 1 Deception: The Basics
Why Deception?
Definitions
Deception
Counterdeception
Counterintelligence
Operations
Psychological Operations
The Deception Target
The Decision Maker
The Intelligence Service
A Defined Group
Basic Principles
Truth
Denial
Deceit
Misdirection
Roles of Operations and Intelligence
Notes
Chapter 2 The Methodology
The OODA Loop
OODA Loop Perspectives
Perspective 1—Understand Your Own OODA Loop
Perspective 2—Understand the Adversary’s OODA Loop
Perspective 3—Understand How the Adversary Views
Your OODA Loop
Planning Deception: The Inverse OODA Loop
Executing Deception: The Forward OODA Loop
 Notes
Chapter 3 The Outcome Scenario
Outcome Scenarios: The PMESII View
Political
Military
Economic
Social
Information
Infrastructure
Notes
Chapter 4 The Target
Individual Decision Modeling
Rational Models
Administrative Models
Emotional Models
Collective Decision Modeling
Game Theory
Modeling Alternative Decisions
Cultural Modeling
Power Distance Index
Individualism versus Collectivism
Uncertainty Avoidance
Masculinity versus Femininity
Long-Term Orientation versus Short-Term Orientation
Indulgence versus Restraint
Notes
Chapter 5 The Story
What Makes a Good Story?
Characteristics of a Good Deception Story
Plausibility
Reinforcement
Influence Nets
Notes
Chapter 6 The Channels
Understanding the Channels
Sensor Mapping
 Observation
Orientation
Channel Characterization
Modeling the “Black Box” of Orientation
The Case of the Daesh 2013–2014 Intelligence
Organization
Channel Exploitation
Notes
Chapter 7 The Traditional Intelligence Channels
OSINT
COMINT
Helping COMINT Deception Succeed
Deceiving Traffic Analysis
HUMINT
Overt HUMINT
Clandestine HUMINT
IMINT
Technical Collection
Radar
Electronic Intelligence (ELINT)
Foreign Instrumentation Signals Intelligence (FISINT)
Acoustic and Infrasound
Notes
Chapter 8 The Cyberspace Channel
Deception in Cyberspace
Web-Based Deception
News and Reference Media
E-mails
Social Media
Memetic Conflict
Web-Based CNE/CNA
Web-Based Channels
The Tools of Cyber Operations
Standalone Computers and Intranets
Social Engineering
Deception in Hardware
 Cyber Deception
How Cyber Deception Works
Projecting a Deception
Notes
Chapter 9 Planning and Executing Deception
Checking the Decision/Action Model: Red Team Analysis
Checking for Unfavorable Outcomes: Alternative Analysis
Deconfliction
Overview of the Execution Process
Achieving Surprise
Operating inside the Opponent’s OODA Loop
Attending to Details and Timing
Managing the Developing Scenario
Notes
Chapter 10 Preparing to Counter Deception
Assessing Vulnerability
Observation (Collection)
Orientation (Analysis)
Decision/Action (The Decision Maker)
Assessing the Threat
Assess the Situation
Assess the Adversary’s History, Capability, and
Motivations
Assess the Adversary’s Understanding of Your OODA
Loop
Notes
Chapter 11 Identifying Deception
Deception Detection via Channel Management
Evaluating the Source
Literal Sources
Nonliteral Sources
Evaluating the Channel
Evaluating the Evidence
Traps to Avoid in Evaluating Evidence
Evaluating Alternative Hypotheses
Notes
Part II: Exercises
Chapter 12 Sensor Mapping and Channel Tracking Exercises
Sensor Mapping Exercises
Example Exercise in Sensor Modeling: Pirating in the
North Sea
Sensor Mapping Exercise 12.1: The Red 5th Battalion
Sensor Mapping Exercise 12.2: Hells Cross Motorcycle
Gang
Sensor Mapping Exercise 12.3: People’s Party Militia
Wing
Channel Management Exercises—Deception Projection
Channel Management Exercise 12.1: Pick a Port
Channel Management Exercise 12.2: Bangui Backroads
Note
Chapter 13 General Deception Planning Exercises
Exercise 1: Derailing a Trade Negotiation
Key Participants
Guidance
Exercise 2: Protecting Drug Cartel Shipments
Sea Delivery Option
Airborne Delivery Option
Cartel OODA
US OODA
Guidance
Exercise 3: Taking Down the Fordow Uranium Enrichment
Facility
Fordow Background
Recent Events
Key Personnel at the Fordow Facility
Iranian OODA
Israeli OODA
Guidance
Exercise 4: Countering Israeli Efforts to Take Down Fordow
Iranian OODA
Israeli OODA
Guidance
 Exercise 5: Supporting a NEO Evacuation
Background
Daesh Background
Daesh OODA
Libya Dawn Background
Libya Dawn OODA
Zintan Brigades
NATO Force
NATO OODA
Guidance
Exercise 6: Disrupting Boko Haram Operations
Boko Haram Background
Key Officers
Your Resources
Channels
Guidance
Notes
Chapter 14 Military Deception Planning Exercises
MILDEC CONOP Example: Operation Bulldozer
Situation
Basic CONOP Format
Exercise 1: Operation Lights Out
Scenario
Situation
Task
Guidance
Exercise 2: Operation Timber Float
Scenario
Task
Guidance
Exercise 3: Operation Closing Time
Scenario
Task
Guidance
Chapter 15 Deception Detection Exercises
Exercise 1: The Valley of Doubt
 Scenario
Situation
Task
Guidance
Exercise 2: The YUTA Ghost
Scenario
Situation
Task
Guidance
Bibliography
Index
List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes
Part I: Fundamentals of Deception and Counterdeception

Chapter 1. Deception: The Basics

Box: The Sting 3
Figure 1-1. Effect of Deception and Surprise on Casualties 7
Figure 1-2. Effect of Intensity of Surprise on Conflict Outcome 8
Box: The IRA Embezzlement Sting 16
Box: Conditioning: The Yom Kippur War 18
Box: Iraqi WMD Programs 20
Box: The Indian Nuclear Test 24
Figure 1-3. Venn Diagram of Overlapping Functions 27

Chapter 2. The Methodology

Figure 2-1. John Boyd’s OODA Loop 33
Figure 2-2. Your OODA Loop 34
Figure 2-3. The Adversary’s OODA Loop 35
Figure 2-4. The Adversary’s View of Your OODA Loop 36
Figure 2-5. The OODA Loop with an Explicit Outcome 37
Figure 2-6. Planning Deception 38
Box: Operation Mincemeat 38
Figure 2-7. Executing Deception 40
Box: Operation Fortitude 41

Chapter 3. The Outcome Scenario

Box: The Cuban Missile Crisis 47
Box: Tactical Defensive Deception in Kosovo 49
Box: The 1972 Soviet Wheat Crop Deception 50
Box: Black Boomerang 52
Box: The Ultra Deception 53
Box: The Farewell Dossier 54
Chapter 4. The Target
Box: The Ethiopian Campaign Deception 59
Box: Operation Desert Storm 65
Table 4-1. Differences between Small- and Large-Power Distance
Societies 69
Table 4-2. Differences between Individualist and Collectivist Societies
70
Table 4-3. Differences between Weak- and Strong-Uncertainty
Avoidance Societies 71
Box: Deception Campaigns against the Japanese in World War II 72
Table 4-4. Differences between Feminine and Masculine Societies 72
Table 4-5. Differences between Short- and Long-Term-Oriented
Societies 74
Table 4-6. Differences between Indulgent and Restrained Societies 75

Chapter 5. The Story

Box: Argo 81
Box: Project Azorian 83
Box: German Rearmament 85
Figure 5-1. Influence Net for the Operation Quicksilver Deception 88

Chapter 6. The Channels

Figure 6-1. Adversarial Sensor Map 91
Box: The Document Binder Deception 92
Box: Protecting Ames and Hanssen 94
Table 6-1. Roll-Up of Related Daesh “Black Box” Presented in Figure
6-2 97
Table 6-2. 6 × 6 Source Evaluation and Rating Schema 98
Figure 6-2. Daesh “Black Box” Model 98
Figure 6-3. Branch-Point Scenario for Operation Quicksilver 101

Chapter 7. The Traditional Intelligence Channels

 Box: GRAB Satellite 105
Box: Black Boomerang Redux 106
Box: Operation Bolo 108
Box: The IRA Prison Sting 113
Box: The Syrian Deception at Al Kibar 116

Chapter 8. The Cyberspace Channel

Box: Mirai 129
Box: Duqu, Flame, and Gauss 132
Box: Duqu 2 133
Box: Stuxnet 135
Box: Project Sauron 136

Chapter 9. Planning and Executing Deception

Box: Moscow Air Show, 1955 145
Box: The CW and BW Deceptions 146
Figure 9-1. Channel Identification 149
Table 9-1. Barton Whaley’s Five Modes of Surprise 150
Figure 9-2. Managing Deception Execution 152
Figure 9-3. Synchronizing Deception Execution 152
Box: The Rabta/Tarhunah Deception and Counterdeception 153
Box: Argo Revisited 156
Box: Operation Mincemeat Revisited 158

Chapter 10. Preparing to Counter Deception

Box: Technical Deception: Igloo White 163
Box: The Cuban Missile Crisis Revisited 165
Box: The Document Binder Deception Redux 169

Chapter 11. Identifying Deception

Figure 11-1. Channel Management for Deception Detection 173
Figure 11-2. Deception Detection 174
Box: Rabta Counterdeception 174
Box: The Iraqi WMD Miscall 180
Box: Operation Mincemeat Revisited 185
Box: Moscow Air Show: Evaluating Evidence 188
Part II: Exercises

Chapter 12. Sensor Mapping and Channel Tracking

Exercises
Figure 12-1. Area of Roberts Clan Operations 194
Table 12-1. Roberts Clan Roll-Up 195
Figure 12-2. Target Network Model of the Roberts Clan Sensor/Sources
196
Table 12-2. The Red 5th Battalion Intell Roll-Up 197
Table 12-3. Hells Cross Intell Roll-Up 199
Table 12-4. People’s Party Militia Wing Intell Roll-Up 202
Figure 12-3. Channel Tracking Approach 204
Table 12-5. Pick a Port Deception Channel Tracker 205
Table 12-6. Bangui Backroads Deception Channel Tracker 207

Chapter 13. General Deception Planning Exercises

Figure 13-1. Tripoli Areas of Control and Proposed Evacuation Routes
225
Figure 13-2. Area of Boko Haram Operations in Nigeria 232

Chapter 14. Military Deception Planning Exercises

Figure 14-1. Zagaweri Sensor Map 236
Figure 14-2. Zagaweri Channel Tracker 236
Figure 14-3. MILDEC CONOP Visualization 238
Figure 14-4. Situation as of May 2017 241
Table 14-1. NRDF 1st Mobile Rifle Division 242
Table 14-2. TKA Mobile Land Forces 243
Table 14-3. TKA Amphibious Force 243
Figure 14-5. NRDF Sensor Map 245
Figure 14-6. Pastonian Situation 247
Table 14-4. PAF 1st Reserve Armor Division 248
 Table 14-5. Pastonian Coast Guard 248
Table 14-6. RNAF Mobile Land Forces 249
Table 14-7. RNN Amphibious Force 249
Table 14-8. RNAF Air Assault Forces 250
Figure 14-7. Pastonian Sensor Map 251
Figure 14-8. Green Zone Situation 252
Figure 14-9. Green Zone Insurgent Sensor Map 253

Chapter 15. Deception Detection Exercises

Figure 15-1. RED-BLUE Situation 256
Table 15-1. RED-BLUE Channel Tracker 257
Figure 15-2. YUTA Ghost Situation 262
Table 15-2. YUTA Ghost Channel Tracker 262
Preface

All warfare is based on deception.

Sun Tzu

This book is about deception: Specifically, it addresses deception as an

instrument for gaining advantage in conflict. So we explain and discuss the
principles and practice of deception across all levels of government and non-
government activity, especially as it is practiced to support military
operations, national security, and law enforcement.

Although deception is the dominant theme, the book explores the

commonality of deception, counterintelligence (CI), and psychological
operations (PSYOPS). These have long been treated as separate and
independent disciplines, because they tend to be separated organizationally.
But to teach them as separate is a mistake; they have too many common
features. This book takes a different perspective, highlighting the shared
principles and methodology that underlie all three. All have the same end
objective: to shape the perceptions and subsequent actions of a target (an
individual or group) in such a way as to produce a favorable outcome for
your side in conflicts among organizations and governments.

The core principles and methodology of deception underlie successful

counterintelligence, so the book concerns CI in the most general sense of the
term. Most books on “counterintelligence” focus on counterespionage—or
the detecting and defeating of spies. But counterintelligence is much more
than that. All counterespionage is counterintelligence, but not all
counterintelligence is counterespionage. So, many of the examples in the
book are about counterintelligence writ large; that is, attacking an opponent’s
intelligence service and inducing it to reach an erroneous conclusion through
deception.

The same core principles and methodology underlie successful PSYOPS. As

is the case with counterespionage, the book does not cover the subject in
depth. It instead focuses on the application of deception in PSYOPS, and
especially in one form of the discipline. PSYOPS comes in three forms: white
(source of the message is acknowledged), gray (source is concealed), and
black (purports to come from another source, usually an opponent). White
and gray PSYOPS occasionally make use of deception. Black PSYOPS, often
conducted as a covert operation, inevitably relies on deception. For that
reason, it is the primary context for considering the topic in this book.

Although a number of books and journal articles deal with the historical and
theoretical aspects of deception, the focus tends toward Soviet-era
disinformation disciplines, which are now dated. This book includes many
historical examples because the principles are still relevant, but also
highlighted are more current illustrations. And deception is typically
presented almost as an afterthought in intelligence and operations courses.
But deception is deserving of its own educational and training infrastructure
that fits into today’s strategic context. Since the Russian deception that
supported its annexation of Crimea in 2014, increasing attention is being
given to the concept of deception. This text is designed to elevate the level of
education in intelligence and operations courses in terms of deception
planning as well as detecting and countering deception.

The basic principles of deception have not changed, and we’ll cover them in
some detail. But information technology, and specifically social media,
constitutes a new collection asset (and new channels for deception). In that
role, it adds a new dynamic to both the conduct and detection of deception
activities, both in their traditional roles and as a part of counterintelligence or
psychological operations. For example, the cyber domain provides a powerful
channel for conducting deception. Accordingly, it receives special attention.

The book provides a main framework for a deception planning course for the
civilian academic community, the intelligence community, and the military. It
bridges the divide between theory and practice concerning deception that
sometimes separates these communities. The target audience includes
intelligence analysts and operational planners, and the book addresses both
perspectives. Operations professionals have few chances during an entire
career to observe the successful execution of a deception operation. A book
that illustrates deception theory using historical and modern-day cases and
provides opportunities to practice with hypothetical case studies will
especially benefit them.

Part I of the book presents organizing frameworks (concepts) for thinking

about deception. It extends the existing concepts and theory, applying a
systems approach and a focus on outcome scenario thinking. Deception has
to be related to the operational planner’s end objective, a concept that hasn’t
been well understood or practiced in the past. A section on theory is followed
by a discussion of the methodology for conducting deception and detecting it
when it is used by an opponent. The book bridges both the historical and the
theoretical aspects of deception with guidance on the practical execution of
deception planning. It therefore is unique in providing step-by-step training
for intelligence analysts and operational planners (practitioners of deception)
to learn how to prepare for and execute deception operations, as well as how
to identify an opponent’s deceptions.

Part II of the book presents a series of exercises on deception and

counterdeception set in current time. Although the basic concepts of
deception endure, new means of conducting deception are available because
of advances in information technology.
Disclaimer
This does not constitute an official release of CIA information. All statements
of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed herein are those of the authors and do
not reflect the official positions or view of the Central Intelligence Agency
(CIA) or any other US government agency, the Royal Danish Defence
College (RDDC), or any other Danish government agency. Nothing in the
contents should be construed as asserting or implying US government
authentication of information or agency endorsement of the authors’ views.
This material has been reviewed solely for classification.
Acknowledgments
Many people throughout the US and European intelligence communities,
military services, and academia have provided wisdom that we have
incorporated; we cannot name them all, but we appreciate their help. We are
especially grateful to reviewers Anthony Bishop, University of Massachusetts
Lowell; Gary Chase, University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee; Kathy
Hogan, University of Maryland University College; Frank Plantan,
University of Pennsylvania; Mark Stout, Johns Hopkins University; Ronald
W. Vardy, University of Houston; and Carl Anthony Wege, College of
Coastal Georgia and several anonymous reviewers who have contributed
their time to improving the text. We also wish to thank Scott Greenan,
Duncan Marchbank, Scott Van Atta, and Tracy Buyan at CQ Press, with
special thanks to copy editor Amy Marks for a superb job in shaping the
finished product.

Above all, we are thankful for the efforts of Dr. Clark’s wife and partner in
this effort, Abigail, whose extensive revisions made this a better book.

Robert M. Clark

Wilmington, North Carolina

William L. Mitchell

Copenhagen, Denmark
About the Authors

Robert M. Clark
currently is an independent consultant performing threat analyses for the
US intelligence community. He is also a faculty member of the
Intelligence and Security Academy and adjunct professor of intelligence
studies at the Johns Hopkins University. He previously was a faculty
member of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Intelligence
Community Officers’ course and course director of the DNI introduction
to the intelligence community course. Dr. Clark served as a US Air
Force electronics warfare officer and intelligence officer, reaching the
rank of lieutenant colonel. At the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), he
was a senior analyst and group chief responsible for managing analytic
methodologies. Clark holds an SB from MIT, a PhD in electrical
engineering from the University of Illinois, and a JD from George
Washington University. He has previously authored three books:
Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach (5th edition, 2016),
The Technical Collection of Intelligence (2010), and Intelligence
Collection (2014). He was co-editor, with Dr. Mark Lowenthal, of The
Five Disciplines of Intelligence Collection (2016). He co-authored
Target-Centric Network Modeling (2016) with Dr. William L. Mitchell.
William L. Mitchell’s
military and intelligence career spans three decades, including
operations in Afghanistan, the Balkans, Iraq, Africa, and French Guiana.
Dr. Mitchell is currently an active member of Danish Defence as an
advisor, instructor, and lecturer. While at the Royal Danish Defence
College (RDDC), he was responsible for the synchronization of theory,
practice, and education regarding intelligence, joint, and special
operations. He served as a member of the RDDC Research Board and
continues to support NATO and US Department of Defense research,
education, and doctrine development programs. He co-authored Target-
Centric Network Modeling (2016) with Robert M. Clark, has several
publications on military intelligence and battlespace agility, and was
awarded the 2014 NATO Scientific Achievement Award for his
contributions to NATO research. Dr. Mitchell has a BA, an MA with
distinction from Kent University, and a PhD in political science from
Aarhus University. He is a decorated war veteran of two countries, with
one citation and several medals, including the French Croix de
Combatant and the Danish Defence medal.
Part I Fundamentals of Deception and
Counterdeception
1 Deception: The Basics

Oh what a tangled web we weave

When first we practise to deceive!

Marmion: A Tale of Flodden Field, Sir Walter Scott

This chapter introduces the basics of deception and the role of intelligence in
both supporting and defeating deception. It sets the stage, with definitions
and a set of basic principles, for the following chapters that explain how to
conduct deception and to identify an opponent’s use of it. But first, let’s look
at the case of a perfect deception—something that happens only in the
movies, of course.
The Sting
The popular media have given us many great stories about well-conducted
deceptions. The staged “sinking” of a Soviet ballistic missile submarine in
The Hunt for Red October (1990) and the elaborate scam to steal $160
million from a casino owner in Ocean’s Eleven (2001) come to mind. But
few if any Hollywood movies can offer the beautifully executed deception
operation set forth in the 1973 film The Sting.

The film is set in 1936, in the depths of the Great Depression. In it, a
small-time con man Johnny Hooker (Robert Redford) has helped pull off a
minor street scam with his friend Luther. Unfortunately for them, it turns
out that the mark was a courier of crime boss Doyle Lonnegan (Robert
Shaw) and Luther is quickly tracked and killed. Hooker must run for his
life from Lonnegan’s revenge. (Lonnegan does not know what Hooker
looks like, which turns out to be a key part of the story.) Hooker gets
advice that perhaps Luther’s old friend, the legendary con master Henry
Gondorff (Paul Newman) can help him start anew, and tracks down
Gondorff, who is hiding in Chicago from the FBI. Hooker subsequently
persuades Gondorff to undertake an elaborate con operation, partially to
honor Luther, targeting Lonnegan.

The scam begins when Gondorff, posing as a Chicago bookie, joins

Lonnegan’s high-stakes poker game on a train, and outsmarts and out-
cheats Lonnegan to the tune of $15,000. In the process he earns
Lonnegan’s enmity by behaving boorishly, gloating over his winnings, and
repeatedly mispronouncing Lonnegan’s name. Hooker, posing as
Gondorff’s employee, visits Lonnegan’s berth, supposedly to collect the
winnings. He instead convinces Lonnegan that he wants to betray boorish
Gondorff and take over the bookie operation with the help of a partner who
works in the Chicago Western Union office. The scheme involves giving
the wire results of horse races to Lonnegan, who then bets on the winning
horses before the results arrive at Gondorff’s betting parlor. After winning
a race in this fashion, Lonnegan decides to bet $500,000 (about $10
million at today’s prices) on the next race to wipe out Gondorff’s operation
and exact revenge.

At the same time, an unexpected visitor arrives: a corrupt police officer

named Snyder, who is searching for Hooker in Chicago after being
 victimized by a counterfeit money payoff. He is intercepted by undercover
FBI agents led by Agent Polk and is ordered to help them arrest Gondorff
with Hooker’s aid. Snyder subsequently captures Hooker and brings him to
Polk. Polk then pressures Hooker into betraying Gondorff.

The next day, at the designated time, Lonnegan receives the tip to “place it
on Lucky Dan,” and makes his $500,000 bet at Gondorff’s parlor. The race
description is another part of the scam—broadcast by an announcer in a
back room of the parlor. As the race begins, the tipster arrives, and when
told that Lonnegan had bet on Lucky Dan to win, explains that when he
said “place it” he meant, literally, that Lucky Dan would “place.” The
panicked Lonnegan rushes to the teller window and demands his money
back, but the teller says he is too late. At this moment, Agent Polk, Snyder,
and a half-dozen FBI officers break into the parlor. Agent Polk tells
Gondorff that he is under arrest and informs Hooker that he is free to go. In
reaction to the apparent treachery, Gondorff shoots down Hooker; Agent
Polk guns down Gondorff and tells Snyder to get Lonnegan out of there
and away from the crime scene.

Once Lonnegan and Snyder are gone, Gondorff and Hooker get up, unhurt
—their deception is complete. “Agent Polk” and his fellow “agents” are, of
course, part of the con.

Aside from its entertainment value, the movie illustrates many features of a
deception operation that are covered in this book:

It has an objective, or desired outcome scenario for the perpetrators:

relieving the target—Lonnegan—of $500,000 and escaping before he
finds out that he has been duped.
It presents a story—a false picture of reality—for Lonnegan to believe,
in order to get him to make the $500,000 bet.
It has several channels for presenting the story: the poker game set-up,
Hooker’s representations about replacing Gondorff, the fake betting
parlor, a fake race announcer in the parlor back room, a staged meeting
with the tipster at the Western Union office, the intrusion of “Agent
Polk,” and Gondorff’s and Polk’s shootings.
It demonstrates the importance of a good understanding of the opponent.
In this case, Lonnegan’s greed is a factor, of course. But also important
is his overwhelming need to “pay back” for insults or injuries suffered,
 in this case from a loss in a poker game to a man he despised. And, a
contributing factor to the deception’s success is Lonnegan’s desire for
respectability that causes him to depart the scene of a shooting, leaving
behind his money.
It sets up Lonnegan for the desired decision or action steps by presenting
him with the opportunity to “pay back” Gondorff for humiliating him in
the poker game.
It shows a fine sense of timing that is often critical in the execution of a
deception—the Western Union tipster arriving at the right moment to
send Lonnegan into a panic, and “Agent Polk’s” immediate arrival to
force the end game before Lonnegan could recover his wits.

The movie also illustrates some other points. Most deceptions require good
showmanship, and Hollywood understands how to put on a good show—a
talent that the US government occasionally calls on, as we’ll see in a later
case study. In every deception, curveballs will present themselves. Success
demands constant observing, orienting, and reacting as events unfold. The
sudden appearance of the corrupt local cop, Snyder, looking for Hooker had
to be dealt with. The deception plan was changed to include him as a target. It
also creates an outcome that most often is the ideal—the “mark” or opponent,
Lonnegan, never realized that he had been deceived (nor did Snyder). On
some occasions, though, you prefer for an opponent to know he’s been
deceived because of the subsequent bad decisions that he makes.

Deception itself is a word that has been used in a great many contexts, from
deliberate acts within wars between nations to the deliberate acts in personal
relationships as exemplified in The Sting. In this sense deception is a process.
As it is used in this book, it also refers to a deliberate and rational process
executed by an actor, in order to benefit that actor within a subjective context.
The spectrum of contexts in this book is focused on actions promoting
governmental rather than private interests. That includes, for example, the
intelligence and operational planning processes of military, police, and/or
civilian organizations.

Before expounding on the specific principles stemming from this definition,

context, and framework for deception, it is worth spending a little time
answering the question: Why should deception be useful to antagonists in a
conflict situation?
Why Deception?
There is no better place to start than by explaining why deception is
important, even essential, in the conduct of national and domestic security
affairs. Countries with a substantial edge in the instruments of national power
often perceive deception as something that benefits a weak power but is
generally a less worthy effort for the powerful. Statistics—in military
conflicts, at least—don’t support that assumption, as we’ll show in a moment.

One does not conduct deception for the sake of deception itself. It is always
conducted as a part of a conflict or in a competitive context, intended to
support some overarching plan or objectives of a participant. In a military and
civilian intelligence context, the overarching plan or strategy is usually stated
clearly. So in this context, the most direct answer is the following axiom: The
more successful the deception in support of a plan, the greater the chance the
plan will be successful. In dealing with war and security issues, measures of
success are usually characterized by precious resources that include material
and people. Though by no means exhaustive on the issue, one of the most
accessible studies as to the effects of employing deception in operational- and
strategic-level military planning is Barton Whaley’s 1969 book Stratagem,
Deception and Surprise in War.1 By drawing on the comparative analysis of
122 historical cases, Whaley shows a clear relationship between deception,
surprise, and the ratio of adversary to friendly casualty results from
engagements. Figure 1-1 illustrates his results. The bottom axis is the ratio of
adversary to friendly casualties—higher numbers are better. As one succeeds
in either deception or surprise, casualty ratios become more favorable. The
ratio improves dramatically when deception is used and surprise is achieved.

Favorable casualty ratios are important; however, winning in a conflict must

take precedence, and that requires successful operations. In Figure 1-2, the
comparative study results illustrate one clear principle: As the intensity of
your adversary’s surprise increases, so does your chance for a successful
operation. (Low surprise equates to a 1 or 2 on a scale of 0 to 5, where 0
equals no surprise; high surprise equates to a 3, 4, or 5 on that scale.)
So one answer to “Why deception?” is embedded in the dynamics of the
conflict itself. Successful deception increases the intensity of surprise; the
higher the intensity of surprise, the higher the chance of operational success.
And in terms of armed conflict, high intensity of surprise means higher
enemy casualties and lower friendly casualties. On this final dynamic, if
minimizing casualties and loss of material is important, then one should
attempt to use deception to increase the intensity of surprise. In fact, many
observers would argue that commanders responsible for the overarching plan
owe as much to their troops.

Surprise clearly is an important factor in any conflict outcome, along with

deception; and the two are almost always related, since surprise often is the
result of deception. The two in combination are highly effective, as Figure 1-
1 indicates. Intensity of surprise is also a significant factor, as Figure 1-2
shows. The percentage of defeat for the attacker in conflicts drops most
dramatically as one goes from no surprise (60 percent defeats) to high
surprise (2 percent defeats).

Figure 1-1 Effect of Deception and Surprise on Casualties

 Source: Drawn by authors from statistics in Barton Whaley, Stratagem,
Deception and Surprise in War [reprint of 1969 edition] (Norwood, MA:
Artech House Publishing, 2007), 104, tables 5.19 and 5.20.

The scope of operations for militaries has widened significantly from

twentieth-century state-centric interactions. Conflicts are generally more
complex, with constellations of actors having diverse functions and
organizational cultures becoming involved in transnational conflicts. The
importance of fundamental deception skills with relation to intelligence and
operational planning cannot be overstated. Deception, possibly more than
ever, is an essential dynamic of conflict; therefore, how to conduct and detect
it is an essential part of a twenty-first-century military’s preparation of the
battlespace.

Furthermore, deception has a substantial role to play in all conflicts, not just
military ones. Governments must be able to apply deception activity in
conflicts across the political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and
information (PMESII) domains. Nonstate actors such as terrorists, criminal
groups, and other militants directly engage governments through social and
economic lines of operation. The insurgents in Afghanistan offer “shadow”
governance. Hezbollah militancy in Lebanon has a strong social and
economic engagement, as did Daesh (also known as ISIS, ISIL, or IS) in
Syria, Libya, and Iraq. However, “shadow governance” in Afghanistan is also
a cover for narcotics cartels. The social and economic engagement of
Hezbollah conceals ideological activities that support a militant agenda and
Iranian foreign policy. Daesh did the reverse, using a radical religious
ideological screen to hide the fragile economic and social connections to the
Sunni tribes that form their support base on the strategic level. On the
operational level they disguise their intelligence organization as an
organization of tribal engagement offices in major communities. They hide
military command and control (C2) within the social domain of the
population they control.

The statistics shown in Figure 1-1 and Figure 1-2 are generally available for
the outcomes of military conflict. No similar statistics have been found that
deal with the many deceptions in the political, economic, and social realms,
in part because outcomes of “victory” or “defeat” are harder to establish in
those arenas. But it is likely that similar ratios of success for both deception
and surprise apply in all the fields of conflict covered in this book.
Comparable statistics do not exist for the counterintelligence or psychological
operations (PSYOPS) disciplines for good reason. The statistics are almost
binary: Failure of the deception almost always means failure of the operation.
The series of deceptions executed by Soviet and later Russian intelligence to
protect two major US sources for almost twenty years, Aldrich Ames and
Robert Hanssen, are described in Chapter 6. Those two were able to operate
long after they should have been caught because the deceptions were so
successful. The World War II Black Boomerang PSYOPS described in
Chapter 3 succeeded because its listeners continued to believe that they were
hearing a German Wehrmacht radio broadcast.

Figure 1-2 Effect of Intensity of Surprise on Conflict Outcome

Source: Drawn by authors from statistics in Barton Whaley, Stratagem,

Deception and Surprise in War [reprint of 1969 edition] (Norwood, MA:
Artech House Publishing, 2007), 115, merged tables 5.30 and 5.31.
With that introduction, the following section provides a deeper dive into the
definitions of deception, counterdeception, counterintelligence, and PSYOPS
as they are used in the remainder of the book.
Definitions

Deception
There are a number of definitions of deception in a variety of contexts, some
of which overlap. The eminent author on deception, Barton Whaley, defines
deception as

Information (conveyed by statement, action, or object) intended to

manipulate the behavior of others by inducing them to accept a false or
distorted perception of reality—their physical, social, or political
environment.2

Another prominent writer on the topic, J. Boyer Bell, defines deception very
simply:

Deception is the process of advantageously imposing the false on a

target’s perception of reality.3

Both definitions are accurate in the sense of defining an end result, in terms
of the belief and/or behavior of others. Both also correctly describe deception
as a process of deliberately inducing misperception in a target person or
group of people. Deception is therefore not an accidental or unintended
outcome.

Whaley explicitly takes the definition one step further, and it is an important
step. His focus is on manipulating behavior based on a false picture. That’s
the widely accepted view: that belief is not enough; action (or refraining from
an action that otherwise would be taken) is required for it to be deception.

However, Bell’s definition explicitly recognizes that manipulating the

behavior of others may not result in a good outcome, from the deceiver’s
perspective. In Whaley’s definition, one could succeed with deception and
have an unfavorable outcome, something that has happened many times in
history, a few examples of which appear in this book. Bell’s definition takes
this into account by using the word advantageously; but in doing so, he
excludes unfavorable outcomes. Whether it succeeds or fails, a deception is
still a deception.

In this book, we simply add a word to Bell’s formulation to encompass all of

the cases discussed:

Deception is a process intended to advantageously impose the false on a

target’s perception of reality.

This concise definition includes three basic concepts that we’ll revisit
frequently:

1. It emphasizes the idea that deception must have a target. In the next
section, we’ll introduce a structured approach to thinking about the
targets. The section following that discusses the means, in the form of
basic principles of deception.
2. It promotes the idea of using deception to gain an advantage. The key to
deception planning is being able to envision a future situation that is
more advantageous to the pursuit of the deceiver’s objectives than if he
or she did not conduct a deception. That future situation takes the form
of a “desired” scenario to be achieved through deception, as later
chapters will discuss.
3. It highlights the concept of imposing the false on the target’s perception
of reality. This false perception takes the form of a story, which will be
discussed in Chapter 5.

Deception generally comes in two basic forms: misleading and ambiguity-

increasing.

Misleading deceptions reduce ambiguity by increasing the attractiveness

of a wrong alternative.4 These have the objective of getting an opponent
 to believe a false picture of the situation. Known in the literature as “M”
type deception, it is designed to mislead an adversary toward a specific
and preconceived direction.
Ambiguity-increasing deceptions, by contrast, increase uncertainty or
confusion so that the target is unsure as to what to believe. They are
often referred to as “A” type deceptions. Such deceptions often seek to
ensure that the level of ambiguity always remains high enough to protect
the secret of the actual operation. Ambiguity-increasing deceptions seek
to conceal critical elements of the truth to lead the opponent away from
the truth, not necessarily to a specific alternative, but simply to increase
the range of incorrect alternatives that the opponent must take into
account.

Counterdeception
Much like the definition of deception, the term counterdeception is often
differentiated by context and organizational mission. For example, the US
Department of Defense definition follows:

Efforts to negate, neutralize, diminish the effects of, or gain advantage

from a foreign deception operation. Counterdeception does not include
the intelligence function of identifying foreign deception operations.5

This doctrinal distinction of counterdeception illustrates the prevailing view

of a clear dividing line between intelligence (identifying and assessing
deception) and the operational response employed to counter deception.

Intelligence organizations and many textbook authors on the subject use a

definition similar to this one below, also isolating intelligence analysis from
operations in countering deception:

Counterdeception is an analytic process of identifying and assessing an

opponent’s deception operations. It usually is an intelligence function.6
This text is primarily focused on the intelligence component of
counterdeception. In fact, Chapter 11, titled “Identifying Deception,” is
addressed to the intelligence team tasked with identification. This emphasis is
a matter of priorities: One cannot deal with deception operationally until the
deception has been identified and assessed.

But it is counterproductive and intellectually artificial to chop into parts what

is, in reality, an interactive process involving both intelligence and
operations. Therefore, counterdeception in this book refers to the
collaborative practice of both identification and operational response to
deception.

Counterintelligence
The US government defines counterintelligence as follows:

Counterintelligence (CI) refers to information gathered and activities

conducted to protect against espionage, other intelligence activities,
sabotage, or assassinations conducted for or on behalf of foreign powers,
organizations or persons or international terrorist activities.7

The focus of this definition is on counterespionage. But counterintelligence

today is more than counterespionage, and a broader perspective is needed in
courses that focus on teaching the counterintelligence discipline. Most
intelligence collection today relies on what the definition refers to as “other
intelligence activities”: open source (OSINT) and technical means—imagery
intelligence (IMINT), signals intelligence (SIGINT), cyber intelligence
(CYBER), and measurements and signatures intelligence (MASINT).
Counterintelligence in general and deception in particular must consider all of
these “INTs,” or what we refer to in this book as channels of communication,
adversarial collection, and adversarial analytical processes.

Operations
Operations is often thought of in a military context, and many of the
examples in this book describe deception to support military operations. But
law enforcement conducts operations to deter crime and capture criminals;
and CI, as the previous definition indicates, includes “activities”—that is,
operations. And nongovernmental organizations such as criminal and terrorist
groups conduct operations. So the term is used in its most general sense
throughout the book, in two ways: to describe an action taken, and to refer to
an organization that executes political, informational, or economic as well as
military actions.

Psychological Operations
Finally, before going further into the subject of deception, it’s important to
define psychological operations. The US military definition is as follows:

Psychological operations (PSYOPS) are planned operations to convey

selected information and indicators to audiences to influence their
emotions, motives, and objective reasoning, and ultimately the behavior
of governments, organizations, groups, and individuals.8

Note that this definition is somewhat broader than the definitions of

deception conveyed at the beginning of this section, but it includes them all.
The distinction between deception and psychological operations is often
confusing to both outsiders and practitioners. One difference is the emphasis
on results: PSYOPS stresses the resulting perception in the expectation that a
desired behavior will follow. Deception emphasizes the opponent’s behavior
that produces a favorable outcome. Another difference is that PSYOPS
includes conveying true information, sometimes without any falsehood.
Deception, in contrast, requires conveying false information.
The Deception Target
All deceptions are aimed at a target. The principles, methodology, and
examples in this book are concerned with three classes of targets: a decision
maker, usually a military or national leader; an opposing intelligence service;
or a defined group (other than an intelligence service). The target is different
in each instance. But all three targets have things in common: Deception
against them has a desired outcome scenario, and against all, one can make
use of either misleading or ambiguity-increasing deception.

The Decision Maker

Most of the literature on deception is about targeting the decision maker for
misleading deception, with good reason. In military operations where the
most deceptions are conducted, misleading the opposing commander usually
results in success on the battlefield. Former deputy undersecretary of the US
Army Thaddeus Holt has written the definitive account of Allied deception
operations during World War II. In his book The Deceivers he enumerates the
key commandments of misleading deception that were developed during that
war. They fit well with the Whaley definition of deception:

Your goal is not to make the opponent think something; it is to make the
opponent do something.
You want your opponent not only to do something—but do something
specific.
It is not always necessary to make the decision maker in your target
network believe in the false state of affairs that you want to project; but
it is enough to make him so concerned over its likelihood that he feels
that he must provide for it.
Non-action is a form of action; the decision to do nothing is still a
decision.
The decision maker(s) are the targets of deception, the intelligence
services are the customers of deception.9

In Holt’s portrayal, deception is a planned process, intentionally designed and

Random documents with unrelated
content Scribd suggests to you:
Bob-tail looked steadily at the young settler for a moment, and then
slowly shook his head. Stevens drew nearer, whittling upon a heavy,
half-bent ox bow of hickory.
"Let Bob-tailed Horse listen. I have a little story to tell him," slowly
returned Fred, as his gaze met that of the Indian.
"A little bird told me that the Siouxs were getting mad at their white
brothers. That Bob-tailed Horse was one of them. That he had sworn
he would take the scalp of a white man before another sun. Is this
story true?"
The savage shifted his gaze and glanced swiftly around the room.
Stevens still whittled on, idly whistling; the women sat gazing upon
the—to them—incomprehensible scene, with strange emotion. Fred
deliberately resumed:
"This bird also told me that Bob-tailed Horse would go to the cabin of
a pale-face and ask for lodging and food, pretending he was weary
and sick, so that he might open the door to One Eye and Dusky
Dick, and let them enter to kill the whites without danger to
themselves. Did the little bird tell me true?"
The Indian stood motionless as if carved from stone, save that one
hand slowly glided up toward his belt, where hung a knife and
hatchet. Then Wilson coughed.
Stevens sprung forward with uplifted ox-bow, and ere the fated red-
skin could stir a step, the heavy club descended upon his head with
crushing force. He tottered feebly, and then fell forward into Fred's
arms, who allowed the senseless form to fall to the floor.
Both women uttered a little cry of wondering alarm at this sudden
and unexpected move, but then a gesture from Stevens checked all
further outcry.
"Hush!" he cried, sternly; "don't make any noise, for your lives! Shut
the door, Jennie, quick. There may be others of the devils prowling
around. Fred's story was a true one. This carrion was a spy, who
intended giving us up to his friends to-night."
Fred stooped over the stricken Indian, and carefully examined the
wound. He found that, though senseless, the rascal still lived; his
skull had not been fractured, though the blow seemed enough to
have killed an ox.
"What shall we do with him, Stevens?" he asked, doubtfully.
"Dead men tell no tales!" sternly responded the old settler, a deadly
glitter in his black eyes.
"No—no, do not kill him, husband!" cried the wife, springing forward,
as he raised aloft the blood-stained ox-bow.
"It is him or us, Mary," but the uplifted arm slowly sunk. "He would
have killed us all, after eating our food!"
"Tie him and put him down the pit," suggested Jennie.
"It will do, Stevens," said Wilson. "They will find we suspect their
plans, anyhow, when they find we are gone. It would only make them
hotter after us, if we killed him."
"You may be right, Fred, but the dog is not fit to live. However, have
it your own way."
A strong cord was quickly produced, and with it the rascal was
bound hand and foot. Then a gag was forced between his jaws; after
which a trap-door was lifted and the Indian cast rudely down into a
pit, where were stored a few vegetables.
"Now what next?"
"You had better pack up such things as you must have, and such as
we can carry; come with me to our house. John has told them all by
this time, and they will be ready for a move. I don't think we will be
safe out here as long as those two devils are at large, with their
gang."
"But we must take the horses."
"No—I think best not. The rascals are somewhere between here and
our house, and they would be sure to hear the sound of hoof-
strokes, while on foot we can pass them without being noticed. If we
think best, we can then take horses from our house. I don't think it
would be safe now."
After some little demurring on the part of Stevens, who did not relish
leaving his valuable stock, this plan was adopted. And then the party
hastened to secure such articles as could not well be abandoned.
In a very few minutes, the little party of four were laden with food and
weapons, and then emerging from the cabin, they set out upon their
perilous journey.

CHAPTER III.
DUSKY DICK'S FIRST BLOW.
John Stevens felt not a little concern as he strode along the grass-
grown trail that Fred Wilson had so lately traversed. The discovery
made by the latter was truly a momentous one, and if true, the
danger impending was one that would require all their skill and
courage to avert.
He thought of the gentle Annie being exposed to all the horrors of an
Indian attack, and wild visions of daring deeds and heroic struggles
in her behalf flashed across his mind. He felt that he could
accomplish all these, for her sake.
And, in good truth, these fancies possessed his mind so greatly that
he forgot a greater portion of necessary prudence, striding along as
if in the utmost security, as though fully assured that there was not
an enemy within a hundred miles of his present location. But he was
speedily awakened from his abstraction.
A dark form suddenly sprung out before him, with leveled rifle-
muzzle threatening him. As his eyes fell upon the intruder, John
fancied he recognized the figure.
"Is that you, Dusky Dick?" he called out, halting and half-raising his
rifle.
"Keep your gun down—don't offer to shoot, or I'll plug ye! Yes, it's
me. But who the devil are you?" returned the man.
"Stevens—John Stevens, you know," laughed the young settler.
"Why, who'd you take me for?"
"Fer a Injun. They're 'round at thar tricks, I b'lieve. But whar are you
goin'?"
"Over to Wilson's—why?"
"Oh, nothin'—I didn't know. Folks all well at home?"
"Yes, all well; that is, all of our own. But there is a lame Indian there,
who hurt himself somehow, while out hunting, I believe. You know
him—Bob-tailed Horse?" added John, the better to allay any
suspicions the other might have entertained.
"Yes; a drunken dog. Mind out or he'll sarve you some dirty trick, yet.
Wal, if you're goin' to Wilson's, I won't hinder you no more. Jest give
them my respects, will you?" and Dusky Dick stepped to one side of
the path.
But, as he did so, John noted an evil glitter in his eyes as the
moonlight fell upon the renegade's countenance, through a rift in the
tree-tops. Stevens realized that Dusky Dick meant mischief.
"All right—I'll tell 'em," and the young settler strode lightly past the
man.
He saw the heavy rifle of the desperado raise and sweep through the
air, wielded by strong arms, evidently aimed at his head. But Stevens
ducked adroitly, and the weapon hissed harmlessly above his head,
the force of the unresisted blow swinging Dusky Dick around almost
against him.
With an angry cry, Stevens whirled his rifle around, its iron barrel
alighting full upon the traitor's head, felling him to the ground like a
dead man. But still a little cry broke from his lips.
Instantly all around was confusion, and the young settler shuddered
involuntarily at the terrible commotion he had aroused. Wild yells
filled the air until it sounded as though scores of devils had broken
loose upon earth, all thirsting for human blood.
Stevens knew his danger, and realized the full extent of his peril—
that he had fallen into an ambush of red-skins of whom Dusky Dick
was either a member, or else a chief. And he knew too that he would
be put to his best, if he escaped the threatened capture.
He had not alone to think of himself, either. The fate of more than
one probably depended upon the speedy accomplishment of his
errand. He must warn the Wilson family of their danger.
Uttering a low cry, John crouched down, and, summoning all his
powers, sprung with headlong force along the path, that he could
see now contained one or more of his enemies. But it was the only
road for him now. He knew that he would not stand the faintest
chance of success, in a run at night through the forest, with the well-
trained and fleet-footed Indians for competitors.
He leaped forcibly against the foremost Indian, hurling him
breathless to the ground, without receiving any particular harm
himself. But there another confronted him, with uplifted hatchet
gleaming in the moonlight, only a few feet distant.
John lowered his rifle and sprung forward, at the same time thrusting
out forcibly with his weapon. The rifle-muzzle took the red-skin full in
the pit of his stomach, doubling him up like a jack-knife, and causing
him to emit a fearful grunt; but at the same time he clutched the rifle-
barrel and held it with a firm grip. This, added to the impetus of his
rush, caused Stevens to stumble headlong, and ere he could recover
himself, several red-skins were upon him.
Literally so in this case, and the young settler was borne struggling
to the ground, almost smothered by the weight of the yelling red-
skins. And then their weapons flashed out and were uplifted to drink
his heart's blood.
It seemed as if the young man's fate was irretrievably sealed, and
his eyes closed as a faint prayer rose to his lips. But his time was not
yet.
Dusky Dick recovered his feet and sprung forward, his head dizzy
and confused by the sound blow he had received. But he knew
enough to see the peril of the young settler, and—for a purpose of
his own—resolved to avert it, for the present.
"Hold! don't strike!" he commanded, in the Sioux dialect. "You must
not kill him yet."
It is not likely that his words would have had the desired effect had
he not beaten the weapons aside with his rifle-barrel, and fairly
hurled one or two of the savages aside.
It was, perhaps, fortunate that John had not shed any blood,
although he had given some severe blows, for then, not even the
influence of Dusky Dick, great as that undoubtedly was, could have
saved Stevens from immolation. Even as it was, two of the red-skins
—those who had received John's compliments—were clamorous for
his death.
But Dusky Dick was firm, and fiercely declared that the man who
lifted a hand against Stevens, unless by his express orders, should
die the death of a dog. This threat, when uttered by one possessing
the renegade's resolution, sufficed; and then by his orders, the
young settler was firmly bound.
Dusky Dick drew aside with several of the principal braves, and
consulted earnestly for a few moments; then he returned, and
Stevens was lifted erect. Two savages held him firmly, while another
loosened the bonds that confined his feet, so that he could walk, but
not run.
"What do you intend doing, Dusky Dick?" he demanded, in a tone as
calm as he could make it, while such angry passions struggled within
his breast; "what do you mean by this outrage?"
"I told you the Injuns was on the war-path. Now you know it, don't
ye?" chuckled the renegade, triumphantly.
"What're you going to do with me?" persisted John.
"Keep you prisoner fer awhile; then burn you, maybe. You must ask
Sloan Young. You are his game."
John saw the uselessness of further speech, and remained silent.
He realized that he was in a truly perilous situation, and though he
felt some natural uneasiness for himself, by far the greater share of
his anxiety was for the peril that threatened Annie.
If Dusky Dick would act thus toward him, might he not do the same
with others? Stevens shuddered convulsively as he realized the peril
that threatened the family of his loved one, who were, as he
believed, totally unsuspicious of the outbreak.
And then his fears were confirmed by the direction taken by his
captors, they heading directly toward the point where the Wilson
cabin was located. As if to put the matter entirely beyond doubt,
Dusky Dick, after a few instructions to the leading red-skin, fell back
to a position just in front of Stevens—the entire party proceeding in
Indian file, as the narrow trail would not admit two abreast—and
tauntingly uttered:
"As you said you was goin' on to Wilson's, I thought I'd give you a
escort, like. Don't you feel highly honored? You hed ought, anyhow,"
and he chuckled grimly.
"You are not—" faltered John, his blood chilling at the significant tone
of the renegade.
"Ain't I? but I am, too. Thought you'd be lonely, a captyve by yourself,
so we've concluded to give you comp'ny. But don't count on too
much. Annie's fer me. You must be 'tented with the men critters,
onless you take the old gal."
John uttered a hoarse growl of anger, and would have sprung upon
his tormentor, bound though his hands were, had not the guard
behind him divined his intentions and drew him forcibly back. This
showed Stevens the folly of allowing his passions to get the better of
him, and so he kept silence, while Dusky Dick malignantly resumed:
"Yas, Annie's mine. That's settled, for good. She'll make a nice
squaw—don't you think so? Anyhow, I'm goin' to resk it. But t'others
—well, they'll prob'ly git jest the same as you will—'ither knocked on
the head decently, or else used fer a bonfire, jest to 'mind the reds o'
old times, when roasted white men warn't an uncommon dish.
"But you don't talk. Deaf, ain't ye? Or be you thinkin' o' the folks at
home? Need it, they do. You said Bob-tailed Horse was there, didn't
you? Well, he was sent there; and, what's more, he was sent thar by
Sloan Young, and he ain't hurt no more'n you be, not a bit! He was
sent thar to open the door at the night time, so 't the reds could walk
in quietly. It's nearly time fer the blow, too, as your folks go to bed
airly. I wonder how they'll feel by mornin'?" and Dusky Dick laughed
ferociously.
Stevens shuddered, but did not reply. He knew that Bob-tailed Horse
would scarcely admit his red brethren, but then there was other
danger. He knew that Fred would try and persuade the family to
hasten over to his house, and he—John—had evidence that the trail
was thickly beset by dangers.
Besides the band that held him a captive, Stevens had heard
enough to know that Sloan Young was also lying near at hand, only
awaiting the proper time to spring his trap upon the "people of the
great rock." Might not Fred also stumble upon one of these parties?
Dusky Dick was not a little provoked at the ill-success of his taunting
boasts, but soon desisted, and once more made his way to the front,
as the party were now rapidly nearing the cabin of Edward Wilson.
Their caution increased, and the party glided along the shadowy
path, like some grim forest hunter.
John was not idle, however. He resolved to escape, if it lay in human
power, as he felt that to remain captive was equivalent to death,
more or less speedy; and he might yet be able to accomplish
something. If too late to save the Wilson family, he might be of use to
his own people.
He worked assiduously upon the bonds that confined his hands.
They were of tanned buckskin, and defied his utmost efforts to break
them. The endeavor only resulted in abrading the skin of his wrists.
The knots appeared to be tied securely, and would neither slip nor
come untied. It seemed as though his hopes were doomed to be
frustrated by this one fact. And yet he did not give way to despair or
cease his efforts, only keeping them concealed—as he was enabled
to do by the darkness beneath the trees—from the red-skins before
and behind him.
Now the little party stood upon the verge of the clearing surrounding
the cabin of Edward Wilson, and peered curiously out upon it. An
Indian grasped John firmly by the neck, and rested one hand upon
his lips, evidently resolved that he should give no alarm.
All was quiet around the dwelling. There was no light within the
building, and it seemed as though the inmates had retired to rest,
with their usual feeling of security. Dusky Dick uttered a fiendish
laugh.
"You see," he muttered in John's ear, "your friends don't expect
visitors to-night. They will be agreeably surprised—I guess not—
when we wake them up. But, still, it may be a trap, and you must
guard us from it. Now I am goin' to make you walk jest afore me,
and, mind you, I have a long knife—long enough, anyhow, to reach
your heart—ready for use at the slightest sound from your lips. And I
will use it, too, if you give a single word or sign to alarm them."
In a few words Dusky Dick made known his plans to his followers,
and they expressed approval of it. John was brought to the front and
Dusky Dick crouched behind him. Then the others strung out in a
row, so that any shot from the house would miss them all, unless first
striking the young settler.
"Now, step out, young feller," muttered Dusky Dick, pricking Stevens
slightly with the point of his bared knife, "and remember that if you
rouse them up, their first shot must take you. Pleasant, ain't it?" and
he again gave vent to a fiendish laugh.
John dared not remonstrate, and obeyed the impulse given him by
the renegade, slowly advancing toward the log-cabin. Nearly two
hundred yards of clearing had to be traversed, and as may be
imagined, it was a trying ordeal for the young man's nerves, who
knew not at what moment a shot from his friends might sound his
death-knell.
But in this he was agreeably disappointed, for the side of the cabin
was gained in safety. Not a sound broke the stillness that filled the
clearing, save the usual hum and chirping of the summer insects. A
silence as of death seemed upon every thing.
Dusky Dick advanced to the door and gently rapped with his
knuckles. No answer; only the echo of the knock replied. Again and
again he repeated it, with the same result.
A glad hope sprung up in the heart of the young settler. He believed
that the family had taken alarm and sought safety in flight.
This same idea struck Dusky Dick, and he thumped loudly upon the
door. Then with a wild, angry cry he rushed forcibly against it. Still no
answering sound broke the silence.
"The birds have flown!" uttered a savage, in a tone of disgust.
"Break down the door and let's see," cried Dusky Dick, with a bitter
oath.
A simultaneous rush of several sturdy forms, broke down the
fastenings of the door, and then Dusky Dick rushed into the house.
He could hear no signs of its being occupied, and then hastily struck
a light. As the glare filled the room, an angry roar broke from his lips.
The floor was strewn with various articles, whose disorder told of
great haste; that told the renegade his anticipated victims had indeed
taken the alarm and had fled from the impending peril. Now he
bitterly cursed his folly in leaving the building unguarded, after his
vain attempt at compromise.
"Git torches and hunt fer sign," he cried, as he stirred up the embers
that still glowed in the huge fireplace. "They can't have gone far in
this little time. Quick! we will find them yet!"
In a few moments a number of the Indians had secured torches, and
were searching the ground without for some trace to tell them the
direction taken by the fugitives. Meanwhile Dusky Dick had hastily
searched through the building, and confirmed this belief. They were
indeed gone.
 CHAPTER IV.
A TERRIBLE SURPRISE.
Tobe Castor sat down to the table and without ceremony began
what he would have termed a "square meal", eating as though his
whimsical assertion was true—that he had not eaten a bite for two
weeks. Evidently he was not a man to be disturbed by trifles, and
who threw his entire energies into one thing at a time.
Edward Wilson conversed earnestly with his wife and daughter,
telling the tidings imparted by their friend, the old hunter. He asked
their advice, for, like a sensible man, he did not think it derogatory to
his manhood, to consult one of the "weaker sex."
"What does Tobe say?" asked Mrs. Wilson.
"He says thet you hed better jest git up an' git, while you kin," replied
that worthy, as emphatically as the crowded state of his mouth would
admit. "They've got a dead open an' shet on ye, 's long's you stay
hyar. Dusky Dick wouldn't 'a' shot off his mouth thet a-way, unless he
had some one nigh to back him up. An' I know the pesky imps hez
riz, down furder; an' it stands to reason that it'll spread up this a-way,
whar thar's a few skelps to be got, 'thout much resk. So I say—
mosey!"
"But where—which way? If, as you say, the Indians have broken out
below us, they must be between here and the settlements—at least
such as are strong enough to offer any hope of safety."
"Jest so, Ed; but see. The longer you wait the wusser it'll be. An' it'll
keep a-spreadin', natur'ly, up this a-way. Ef you start now, you stand
a chaince o' gittin' through. Ef you wait ontil to-morrer—providin'
Dusky Dick don't put in his oar, afore—it'll be wuss, a heap. Dog-on
it! You must start to-night!" earnestly added Castor.
"But Fred—he is not here, and we can't leave him."
"No more shall you. My plan's this. Say we gits out o' here, an'
a'terwards Dusky Dick gives the cabin a call, an' finds us gone.
Won't he natur'ly s'pose you've struck out fer the settlements? An'
won't he look fer us in thet direction? In course he will. So much fer
so much, then.
"We'll take the hosses an' start in thet d'rection fust. Fer it's more'n
likely they'll hunt fer our trail by torchlight, ontil they set the p'int we
head torst. Then they'll set off to run us down. So we must go fur
enough on critter-back to fool 'em, thet way. Then we'll turn 'round
an' strike back in a crooked route, torst the Stevens shanty, find
Fred, tell our yarn, an' take the hull caboodle with us.
"We kin take a turn ag'in, an' then by hard ridin', make up fer lost
time. Ef we're ahead o' those imps by day, then we're all right fer
them. We must take the chances 'bout t'others. But I think we kin
work it. Thar—thet's my plan; what d' you think o' it, anyhow?"
demanded Castor, arising from the table.
The party were silent. They could see no other way, and yet this one
seemed full of danger. But indeed, if the rising of the Indians in
insurrection was a fact, which way could they turn without incurring
danger?
So this plan was finally acquiesced to, and the work of preparation
for flight commenced. Castor and Wilson set about saddling the
horses, while the women packed food and extra clothing, with such
little articles of value that they could not bring themselves to
abandon, in small and compact bundles.
They worked as if for dear life, and but a few minutes were
consumed ere all was pronounced ready for a start. Castor had
taken a hurried scout along the route they proposed to follow, and
discovered nothing suspicious.
There were only four horses, but Tobe scornfully declared that he
would none of them; that he never yet met the four-footed animal
that he could not wear out, on foot. But he advised them to take the
extra one along for Fred's use.
Then after a few words of caution, he led the way from the clearing,
and they entered the gloomy forest, leaving the home that had
sheltered them for two years, with sensations of choking regret. It
seemed like parting with some near and dear friend.
The trail was narrow and winding, and frequently the riders were
forced to stoop low down in their saddles, to avoid the pendent
boughs, but to offset this, they had the advantage of knowing the
route thoroughly, from so often traversing it. Tobe Castor led the way
with long, swinging strides, that forced the horses to their best
walking, to avoid being distanced.
There was urgent need of haste, as they understood matters to be,
for Fred might return to the deserted house, before they would have
time to gain Stevens', if any delay occurred. And unsuspecting the
threatening peril—as they believed—he might run into an ambush
and be either killed or captured by the red-skins.
"We've gone fur a plenty," said Tobe, when nearly a half-mile had
been traversed. "We must strike fer the other shanty now, or we
mought miss Fred. Take keer fer your heads, now, as thar hain't any
trail the way we must go."
"Ain't you afraid of losing the way, Tobe? It's so dark," muttered
Wilson.
"Nary time I ain't. Lose nothin'! Me? Git out! Wasn't I raised in the
woods? Couldn't I smell my way, even ef I was blinded? In course I
kin. Don't be skeered 'bout thet, Ned. I'll take you as straight thar as
a drunken Injun's trail—fer you know we've got to go mighty crooked
through the dark, on this bresh. Now keep cluss together and don't
make no n'ise. Don't holler out, even ef the limbs saws your heads
off. 'Tain't nothin'—a'ter you git used to it."
The guide hurried abruptly to his left, and strode rapidly along,
holding onto the bridle of the horse ridden by Mrs. Wilson. After her
came Annie, with Wilson bringing up the rear, leading the spare
horse.
Owing to the darkness, considerable noise was unavoidably made,
but as they soon gained a point at a fair distance from the trail
Castor believed there was but little danger of being overheard. As a
matter of course, he reasoned that such Indians—and he fell fully
assured that there were more or less in the neighborhood, from the
bold threats of Dusky Dick—as were lurking around, would naturally
keep near the main trail, as the two families were all living within
some miles of that point.
Thus he pressed on through the woods at a good pace, for now time
was precious. A long road lay before them, and unless a certain
distance could be gained before day-dawn, he believed their
chances of ultimate escape would be faint indeed.
The riders found that his warning was well founded, for more than
once they were almost brushed from their saddles, by the low-
hanging boughs, and only by lying almost flat along their horses'
necks, could they proceed with any degree of safety. Then their
animals were mainly left to their own guidance, but naturally followed
close in the footsteps of the one led by Castor.
For several miles the fugitives proceeded in this manner, which was
inexpressibly wearisome, and more than once had Wilson urged
Castor to seek the trail leading direct to the cabin of Wesley Stevens.
But the guide refused, as it would be incurring foolish risk. The
unbroken woods were far safer in his estimation.
But their journey was not to be completed without interruption, and
one soon came that threatened serious consequences. It occurred in
this manner.
As they were proceeding at a fair gait, a bright flash spouted forth
from one side of the little party, at only a few yards' distance, and
mingled with sharp report, came the spiteful hum of a ragged bullet
as it hurtled close to the head of Mrs. Wilson. Then a loud, fierce yell
broke upon their hearing.
The horses were badly frightened by these sudden and unexpected
sounds, and broke loose from all control, wildly plunging on through
the woods. And the voice of Castor was heard, crying:
"Keep together, an' let the animiles went! Foller me!"
Fleet-footed as a deer, he sprung forward and clutched the bridle-
rein that had been wrenched from his grasp; then ran beside the
horse, now leading the way. Occasionally he would raise his voice—
knowing that, if they were indeed followed, this could not add to their
peril, as the loud crashing made by the affrighted animals could be
heard further than his cries—and it was essential that none of the
party should become separated from the others.
For nearly a mile this headlong race was maintained, and then
Castor suddenly checked the horse he was guiding. He could hear
nothing of any pursuer, and had resolved that now, if ever, was the
time to throw any such off the scent.
"Is it all right, Ed?" he anxiously cried, approaching Wilson.
"Yes—I believe so. Is Mary hurt?"
"No—I am safe. But Annie—where is she?" replied Mrs. Wilson,
breathlessly.
"Here—I caught her horse as it ran past. Are you hurt, Annie?"
There came no answer, and Wilson repeated the inquiry, in
wondering alarm. Tobe Castor sprung forward with a cry, and stood
beside the horse.
It was dark and gloomy there, in the forest depths, where the thickly-
crested tree-tops effectually prevented the moon's rays from falling
on the earth, and nothing could be seen. The sense of feeling must
be depended upon, merely.
Castor reached out and touched the snorting horse. It trembled like a
leaf. He called aloud on Annie's name, but she did not answer.
His hands fell upon the saddle. It was empty—Annie was gone!
The old scout uttered a low cry and staggered back. The blow was a
fearful one, and he felt it as though the lost one had been his own
child.
"My God! Castor, what is it?" gasped Wilson, alarmed at the tone of
the hunter, and bending forward in the saddle as though he would
pierce the dense obscurity with his distended eyeballs.
"The gal is gone!"
Mrs. Wilson uttered a low, gasping groan, and reeled in her seat.
Tobe sprung forward and caught her sinking form lowering her gently
to the ground. In a moment Wilson was beside her, half-distracted by
the terrible events that pressed so closely upon them.
"Give her a sup o' this," gloomily said Castor, producing a small flask
of whisky. "'Tain't no time fer faintin' now. We've got our hands full
'thout thet."
"What must we—what can we do?" cried the father, chokingly, as he
strove to revive the fainting woman.
"Work—work like blazes. No use goin' furder ontil we find thet gal; ef
it kin be did. Ef—it must be did! Thunder! I'll find her ef I hev to take
an' rip the hull teetotal kentry through my old hat! See 'f I don't, now,"
and Castor spoke with strong emphasis.
Mrs. Wilson now gave signs of returning consciousness. Strong-
nerved, she was not one to yield long to any misfortune, however
heavy and bitter it might be.
"Now, Ed," added Tobe, thoughtfully, "this is what we must do. You
may stay here with her an' the hosses, 'ca'se we may need them
afore long. I'll go back 'long the trail as we kem by, an' look fer the
gal. She must 'a' bin knocked off by some pesky limb, an' won't hev
gone fur. I'll find her, never fear."
"But the Indians—those who fired at us? They may have found her,"
faltered Wilson.
"'Tain't likely, fer I didn't hear thar yell as they'd 'a' give ef they hed. I
don't think they'd notice her tumble a-tall. An' then ag'in, I don't think
thar was more'n one or two, or they'd 'a' follered us closter. Most
likely jest a stray, prowlin' critter, who run jest as soon's he shot at
us."
"I hope so—but why can't we all go?"
"Don't be a fool, now, Ed, don't. S'posin' thar was a wheen o' reds
nigh, wouldn't we look nice a-blunderin' right spang into 'em? They'd
hear us a-comin', an' then lay fer us. Then whar'd we be? No, sir.
Whatever's did I must do, alone, by myself. You must stay here to
keep her comp'ny—onless, indeed, you keep right on to the shanty
fer Fred. Which is it?"
"No, we must not leave Annie—Fred is a man, and better able to
take care of himself. We will wait here."
"All right, then. But fust, wait ontil I find a better place fer ye to lay
low in than this," and Castor started away from the spot.
"Is Annie gone, Edward?" murmured Mrs. Wilson feebly.
"Yes—but Tobe says he can find her. She is safe, I believe, but was
brushed off the horse's back. He will find her never fear."
"Here ye be, folks," muttered the old hunter, as he returned. "Kin you
walk a leetle, Mary?"
"Yes, I can; I think."
"Holp her, Ed, while I take the animiles. Foller me."
In a few moments the refuge was gained; a sort of natural bower,
where, even by the light of day, a casual observer would scarcely
have noticed their presence, and in the darkness, unless some noise
should betray them, an entire tribe of red-skins might have passed
within arm's-length of the covert, without suspecting their presence.
"You stay here an' keep still. Don't move or speak 'bove a cat's
whisper, ontil I come back. I'll give the call o' the night-hawk twicet.
You know it, Ed?"
"Yes, but be—"
Tobe did not wait to hear the conclusion of this sentence, but turned
and glided away. His mind was far from being at ease, although he
had endeavored to cheer up the fugitives with a confidence he was
far from possessing, as he knew that it was no time for
despondency.
He knew that Annie had most likely been knocked from the saddle
by a limb, and that she might have received such injury as prevented
her crying out. And then again she might have suddenly been
pounced upon by the one who had fired the treacherous shot, and
taken prisoner before she could give the alarm.
If hurt, the chances were against his finding her, in the darkness, and
to await the light of day would be perilous in the extreme, now that
the vicinity of deadly enemies was put beyond a doubt. Still he did
not entirely despair; it was not his nature to do so, while breath
remained.
Tobe glided along cautiously, seeming to avoid collision with the
thickly-growing tree-trunks and bushes by instinct, keeping as near
as he could tell, in the trace of their wild flight. His hearing was
keenly alert, and he looked for some signs or sounds to tell him
whether the hidden horseman had followed them or not.
But he reached a point near where the alarm had been given the
horses, without seeing or hearing aught to confirm either his
suspicions or hopes. Then he paused to listen more intently.
His lips compressed tightly and one hand sought the haft of his
ready knife, as he heard the sound of faint footfalls, apparently
approaching him. Still he did not speak or move, not knowing
whether friend or foe advanced.
The steps sounded more and more distinct, until Tobe felt assured
that the comer was not the girl he sought: the tread was too regular
and deliberate for that of a frightened wanderer. Then who could it
be but a foe?
A dark form appeared outlined against the less opaque atmosphere,
within a few feet of the crouching scout. With knife drawn, Castor
reached out, and finding a small twig, snapped it with a sharp noise.
A low guttural exclamation came from the figure, and it started back
as if in alarm. That satisfied Castor, who sprung forward with a low
howl of anger.
His arms closed around a brawny form, but a quick motion rendered
the knife-stroke futile, and then they fell to the ground together,
battling fiercely for the mastery. Their arms were twined around each
other, so that their knives were of little use.
It was now a struggle for life or death!
 CHAPTER V.
THE BURNING CABIN.
A dim, shadowy, phantom-like chain flitting silently through the forest
depths. A living chain, composed of human beings—at least in
outward semblance—bent upon an errand of bloodshed and death.
They pause at the edge of a considerable clearing, and gaze out
upon it. A rude log-cabin stands here at the foot of a good-sized hill.
In the darkness, it seems as though there were two buildings, but
one is a huge square bowlder. A mass of rock that has puzzled many
to tell where it came from. It gives a name to the cabin and its
owners, "the people of the lodge by the great rock."
The cabin is the one where we met the Stevens family. The human
chain is led by One Eye—Sloan Young, the half-breed heretofore
alluded to. He and his comrades have come here to perform their
part of the bloody plan, to further which the Indian, Bob-tailed Horse,
had been sent to gain admittance into the cabin.
"It is nearly time," muttered One Eye, in the Sioux dialect.
"Yes, the pale-faces are asleep before now," added one of the
Indians.
"We will not wait any longer. Come, let us go," and One Eye entered
the clearing and glided stealthily toward the cabin that stood silent
and gloomy in the shadow of the hill.
The half-breed paused when beside the rude structure and uttered a
call; one common to that place and time of year—the cry of the
night-hawk. Then he stepped forward and pressed gently against the
door.
To his surprise it did not yield. He again uttered the signal, upon
which the traitor was to throw wide the door, but still without the
desired result.
"The fool has drank fire-water until his brain is asleep! He has
forgotten his duty," angrily hissed the half-breed.
"It is growing late and our weapons are hungry for white blood. Let
us break open the lodge. They can do nothing," muttered the Indian
who had spoken before, who was evidently of higher rank than the
others who stood silently behind him.
"We can do it. One rush will overpower them. But remember—the
young squaw must not be harmed. She is mine—for my squaw,"
earnestly added Young.
"It is well. One Eye shall have her," and then the chief spoke a few
words to his followers, who drew together and made a heavy rush
against the door.
It flew open so suddenly that one-half their number fell in a sprawling
heap upon the floor, half-way across the room. Then with wild yells
and cries Young and the chief sprung over their forms, and glared
around for their anticipated victims.
But where were they? Why did not their cries of wild alarm and terror
break forth upon the air? Surely there had been noise enough made
to awaken them from the soundest slumber!
Raging furiously, Young rushed into the second room, but silence
met him there, as well. He could no longer doubt the truth.
"A light—quick!" he snarled fiercely, in his rage speaking in English.
"They cain't all hev gone. Cusses on that drunken fool!"
A light was speedily struck, and applied to a heap of clothing that lay
upon the floor. As the blaze shot up, the interior of the cabin was
rendered visible. Here, as at Wilson's, the disordered furniture and
various articles strewn about the floor, told of a hasty and recent
flight.
The half-breed quickly ran through the rooms, and found nothing
there to wreak his fury upon. The loft, likewise, was empty. His anger
and disappointment was fearful.
Led by him the Indians procured lights and ran outside to find, if
possible, some trace of the fugitives. While some searched for a trail,
others sought among the brush and hollows along the hillside, in the
faint hope that the fugitives had sought shelter there.
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