10.1201 9781315370729-1 Chapterpdf
10.1201 9781315370729-1 Chapterpdf
1
2 X-Machines for Agent-Based Modeling: FLAME Perspectives
"The whole"
emergent, global structure
"Parts"
Local interaction
Key:
Type of complex system The kind of scenarios
(Function of the system) (Agents)
Common Attributes:
Memory,
Computation Reward system, Noise and
Storing
input, action Assign credits control
information
FIGURE 1.2: Examples of complex adaptive systems, their models and com-
mon characteristics. cf. [171].
the point at which system starts exhibiting chaotic behavior, or the point
at which it becomes extremely sensitive to initial conditions. This sensitivity
sometimes produces bifurcations (or branches into two possible behaviors)
that are difficult to predict (Figure 1.3).
to model behavior of water in pipes. Using these equations can represent the
system as a derivative of time [144],
dx
Ẋ = = F (x) (1.1)
dt
Equation 1.1 shows change in a system represented with time, where X =
(x(1) , x(2) , ..., x(k) ) and k is the number of states of the system. The system
state is given as a property (for all elements) as a snapshot at the time. This
can include individual element properties, environmental conditions and any
other attributes involved. Basically, it is a snapshot of the system at time t,
taken between starting time t = 0 and time t = k. In this way, it is possible to
determine how the system looks at time t = t + 1, if state at t = t is known.
However, complex systems are emergent systems. This makes it sometimes
difficult to predict or anticipate, how the system would look at t + 1 as there
are too many individual element interactions leading to its snapshot at t + 1
due to randomness in individual behavior. These systems are also irreversible,
which means it is also difficult to work backwards and deduce what the past
state was even if current and future states are known. Researchers can deduce
a number of reasons why the system behaved in the way, by running repeated
simulations and testing the effect of all elements on overall system behavior.
ant path being created, that deviates from water. This is an important
ability to ensure survival in changing environments.
1.6.1 Adaptation
Adaptation is the ability of individuals changing their behavior or functions
to survive better in their present conditions. Examples include developing
ability to run faster or hiding from predators. In evolution, organisms with
successful adapting capabilities will grow, improving on their likelihood to
survive.
Karl Sims [181] presented his work on artificial life, where he displayed
evolution in action by creating a computer simulated block creature that had
rectangular blocks hinged together. Each block was flexible and allowed to
move, such that the creature could restructure itself to suit to the environment
it was in.
The creatures were evolving towards a common goal, which was to swim
as fast as they could through a water environment (Figure 1.4). Simulated
results showed that there were no optimum solutions, as creatures could not
understand water mechanics and its behavior. However, the results showed
new designs quickly generated, increasing the rate of survival for creatures in
water. Sim’s experiments showed evolution was at play when performed with
particular goals for survival.
Through various successful adaptations, an emergent behavior can be ob-
served, seen as an outsider view of the system. This is known as evolutionary
drive in the system, as conditions and time force individuals to change.
Evolution is a term borrowed from biology, where organism populations
adapt from one generation to the other. Over time, generations accumulate
Setting the Stage: Complex Systems, Emergence and Evolution 9
various differences with each other, depending on how they adapt, allowing
new generations to have a gradual divergence from the starting pool of char-
acteristics. These differences are brought about due to locations, limited in-
formation or available resources, allowing emergence of new species that can
better adapt to given situations. Some individuals not well adapted, will grad-
ually die out, leaving only strong ones to multiply.
The term reliability refers to probability of a component operating sat-
isfactorily during a certain time frame. Quantifying reliability requires one
to define, assess and combine probabilities of risk and system behaviors [27].
This may require identifying system variabilities and vulnerabilities, to predict
lifetimes to assess model reliability.
Simulated
results
invalid IMPLEMENTATION:
Simulate the model to allow the agents
to interact.
TESTING:
Real experimental
Observe behavioural data using graphical
data
techniques and tools.
Simulated results
validated
Release model
understanding behaviour.
problems like the travelling salesmen problem and network routing problems
for dynamic scenarios (Figure 1.6).
FIGURE 1.6: Various time steps showing ant colonies finding and forming
routes to food sources. cf. [23].
Biological systems like the human body are extensively studied as complex
systems. The study of NFκB molecule is an example of studying how tran-
scription factors work in cells [149]. Apart from cells, foreign organisms like
bacteria, living in human bodies, have also been subject of much research,
where bacterial behavior is often studied in human stomachs to determine
how they survive in less oxygen levels [125].
Control Engineering
Control systems engineering involves design of robust applications func-
tioning in real world conditions. Research in this area has grown to accom-
modate various aspects like [95]
• Regulating control of systems.
• Building large systems like bridges or computers.
• Dynamic environmental conditions.
• Optimization and distributing data over large systems.
Being treated as complex systems, systems control theory analyzes large
systems as collections of smaller units working together to produce the system
output. For instance, Figure 1.7 shows a system made of three interacting units
A, B and C. These units can be a capacitor, transistor or a memory chip,
working together in the system. The system output produces an effect that
brings change in system input at next time step. This becomes an important
feedback loop, allowing the system to adapt to changing conditions in the
environment (dynamic environments).
14 X-Machines for Agent-Based Modeling: FLAME Perspectives
Cellular Automata
Cellular automata models have stemmed from basics of computational
theory, mathematics and biology. Developed by Ulam and von Neumann [198],
they were able to prove the notion of one robot producing another robot or
also known as ‘the principle of self-replicating systems’. A famous example is
the ‘Game of Life’ by John Conway which uses four simple rules of generations.
Here, every element is treated as a cell that transitions based on strict rules
predefined by life generations [159].
Being used as a more powerful computational model [203], principles of
cellular automata allow individual cells to react and change their states based
on their surrounding neighboring cells. If visualized as a plane of cells, there
can be a pattern that is observed moving across from one point to other, by
subsequent reaction of cells. For example, vibration of molecules in a solid,
when provided with heat, acts as a wave propagating from one point to other.
Agent-Based Models
The word agent has multiple definitions by different modelers. With re-
spect to agent-based models, the following definition is used in this book:
It does not specify that every gear in a clock be modeled as one agent or
the whole unit to be treated as one agent to reach model goals. This allows
modelers to define their own agents and their behaviors per model.
Setting the Stage: Complex Systems, Emergence and Evolution 15