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Tra in
with
an lesticks
Visua l Too ls for Improved
Technica l Ana lysis and Ti ming

Michael C. Thomsett
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 •

Contents

Acknowledgments ............................................... viii

About the Author , , , , , , , , .......... , , , , , .... .......... .... , . , , , ... IX
Introduction "" ". 1
Chaplet 1 The Basic Candlestick ........ . .....•. ... ••. . ••. . ... 5
The Origin and Meaning 01 the Candlestick ...... .......... .... ,"', . ... 5
Strengths and Weaknesses 01 Candleslicks """.,," __________ , , , , , ... 9
Paper Trading asa Tesling Ground .... . ,""'" ..... "",,. ,""'" .. 12
The Skills Every Trader Needs ............ ,', ....................... 14
Candlesticks: General Observations Concerning Their Use ..... ........ ... 18
Expanding the Information Pool Effectively ........ .... _ ...... .. 20
Endnotes ...... ,'" ..... .......... .......... ......... .... .. ... . . 22
Chapter 2 Single-Stick Signs . ..... . ... .. ... . , .. .. ... • . . . . .. . 25
Uptrends and Downtrends ........................ . . ... .. 25
The Significance of a Candleslick's Shape ... .... .......... .... ..... . .. 28
Variations on the Bullish Long Candlestick ......................... . .. 30
The MistakePattern ...... ......... ..... .... . . ......... .... .... . .. 32
The Spinning Top, Hanging Man, and Hammer ........ . . .... .. 37
The Significance of Tails ... ......... ..... ... . . . ......... .... .... . .. 42
Chapter 3 Double-Slick Moves . .. .. . ... . ........... .. • . . . . .. . 47
Two Reversal Moves: Engulfing and Harami ........... ............... .. 48
More Reversals: The Inverted Hammer and Doji Slar ......... .......... .. 53
Even More Reversals: Meeting Lines and Piercing Lines .................. 55
Contirming Patterns: Thrusting, Separating, and Neck Lines ... ......... ... 60
Reversal and Confirming Moves-Relative Values ...... . . ..... .. 56
,; Conte nts

Chapler 4 Complex Slick Pallerns . .. . . . . .. . ..... . . . ... • ..... . 69

Reversal Trend Change Patterns . __ .. 71
Reversal Trend Inside and Outside Formations . ......... ...... , , , , . ..... 74
Reversal Stars and Abandoned Babies .. .... ................ , , , , . ..... 78
Complex Trend Pattems ......... .......... ......... ..... , , , , . ..... 82
Complex Gap Trends . .......... .......... ......... ..... ,"', ..... 85
Chaptet 5 Re versal Patlern Analysis . .... . • ... •• . . •. ... •• . ..... 91
Recognizing the Bull Reversal .... ......... .......... ..... ,"', ..... 91
Recognizing the Bear Reversal ................... . . .. " . 94
The Doji as aReversal Signal ..... .......... ......... ..... , , , , , ..... 97
Reversal Pattems with Gaps .......... ..... ............... .... ..... 101
Reversals Setting New Support or Resistance .. . ..... ......... .... . .... 104
More Resistance and Support Reversals ...... .......... .......... .... 108
Mul1isession Gap Reversals ..................... . . .... 111
Chapter 6 Volume and Volatility . . ... . .. . . . ..... • •...•. . .. . .. 119
Volume as a Pri ce Indicator ... 119
VolumeIndicators .... .......... .......... ......... .......... .... 122
Volume Indicators and Candlesticks .... .... ................ .... ..... 126
Testing Price Volatility .......... .......... ......... .......... .... 131
Chapter 7 Buy and Sell Setup Signals .. .....•.. .• • . ..•. .. . . .. 141
Price Spikes and Reaction Swings ..... ..... ............... ..... .... 143
Percentage Swing Systems ....... .......... ......... .......... .... 146
Short-Term Gapping Behavior .................... . .... 149
Anticipating the Trend During Consotidation .. ......... ....... .... .... 153
The Setup Pattern and Swing ......... .... ................ .... ..... 156
Support and Resistance in the Swing Trade .. . ....... ........ .... . .... 165
Chapter 8 Swing Trading with Candlesticks .. . .... . .• . ..•.. . . . .. 171
A Swing Tradmg Overview ........... ..... ............... ..... .... 171
Quantifying Price Movement with Candlesticks .......... .......... .... 174
The Importance ot Convergence and Divergence . . .. 178
Primary Trends and Candlestick-Based Entry or Exit ..... ........... .... 182
Setup Criteria and Action Points ....... ..... ............... .... ..... 186
Selling Short in Swing Trad es ..... .......... ......... .......... .... 190
 Co ntents vII

Chapter 9 Spotting Trends and Using Trendlines ... .• .. . . . . .. . . .. 193

Identifying the Trendline ................................. ..... .... 194
Trendlines and Candlesticks as Confirmation .. ......... ........... .... 200
Applying Moving Averages to Candlestick Analysis .... . .. 203
Chapter 10 Technical Indicators ... . ................. . ....... 207
The Value of Confirmation .......................... .......... .... 207
A Review: Technical Analysis Basics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... 209
The Significance of Gaps ........ .......... ......... .......... .... 212
A Key Framework: Support .and Resistance ............................ 215
Overbought and Oversold Indicators ........ .......... .......... .... 217
The Potential of Candlestick Signals ... 222
Glossary . ............................•...•....•....... 225
Index ......... . . . .. ................. . . . •• . ... . . . ..... 235
vii i

Acknowledgments

Thanks to the many options industry folks who have shared information gene r-
ollsly and provided support for this and many other projects, especially
stockcharts.com, whose generous permissions policy has helped bring this topic
to life. I also want to thank Tina Logan, author of Getting Started ill Candlestick
Charting Uohn \'(Iiley & Sons, 2008) for her willingness to help me, as a
competitor, in the early stages of developing this book.
Special thanks go to Jim Boyd of FT Press who, as executive editor, provided
editorial guidance and support of t his project, and to the excellent editorial and
production staff working with him.
 ;,

About the Author

Michael C. Thomsctl has authored dO'lens of financia! books. T hese include

0/)(i01l5 Trading fo r the Conservative hlVcstor (~-r Press); Winn ing with
Optiolls (Amacom Books); The LEAPS Strategist (Marketplace Books); and the
best-selling Getting Started i l l Options Uohn Wiley & Sons), now in its Hrh
ed itio n wi th over 250,000 copies :sold.
Thomsen is also author of The Investment and SeClirities Dictionary
(McFarland ), named br Choice Magazille as an O utstanding Acade mic Book for
1988, J nd many other investment and trading books. Before starting his profes-
sional writing career in 1978, T homsett was an accountant. He also spent seven
years as a consultant in the financial services industry wi th clients including
securities hroker/dealt:rs, insuranct: mastt: r agt:ncit:s, and insuranct: co mpanies.
He has been an acti\'e options trader since the mid- 1970s.
Thomst:tt livt:s in Nashvillt:, T t:nnesst:t:, and writes full time.
This page infemiol/all)' left blank
 1

Introduction

Confusion and uncertainty: the two common attributes of the stock market. The
random short-term movements in public trading create a lot of confusion and
certainly add to uncertainty among traders. A novice understands this reality,
but even experienced professionals who have been trading for years suffer the
same affliction.
This is where chart analysis becomes valuable. No one can claim a perfect
record of timing bu)' and sell decisions, and no one realistically expects to beat
the market with every trade. It is e n ough to beat the averages and to outperform
the typical profit or loss experience ratio. For many, today's profits are eroded
by tomorrow's losses, and so many individual traders find themselves seeking
trades just to get back up to dead even. T he candlestick chart is a valuable tool
that helps you anticipate trends in a stock's price and improve the timing of buy
and sell orders. Ironically, even experienced traders who refe r regularly to
candlestick charts often are not well versed in recognition of patterns or their
significance.
Tbis book first describes candlestick charts in detail and shows how they are
constructed. The advantage with this visual aid is thaI you can find all the price
information in one symbol. This includes a day's opening and closing price, the
trading range, and direction (upward or downward ) of movement. T he candle-
stick also shows each day's breadth of trading range. When you view an array of
charts over a number of trading periods, )' OU can determine in an instant
whethe r a stock is high- or low-volatility, whether it is trending upward or
downward, and most of all, when to make a move. Collectively, Ihis is a valuable
set of statistics. Most traders wbo have analyzed price movement using candle-
sticks understand these basic attri b utes, but if Ihis is the extent of )'our under-
standing, you need more.
Beyond the basics, this book explains how to recognize different kinds of
signs, moves, and patterns (bull, bear, reve rsal, and market) and how to employ
double and triple stick formations to better understand why prices are behaving
in a particular manner. Many of these moves and patterns are subtle, and their
meaning is easily lost in the more recognizable patterns most traders seek.
, Tladlng with Candlnti cki

Candlesticks are also valuable when analyzed in combination with other

indicators. For example, two factors often overlooked in price-focused technical
analysis are the critical attributes of price movt:mem and risk: volume and
volatility. This book explains how candlestick chart analysis employing these
important features will help yo u improve your mastery of stock trading.
Advanced technical analysis can be greatly enhanced by combining candlestick
indicators with the better-known price patterns and trt:nds.
Chapter 7, ~Bll}' and Sell Setup Signals," examines and analp,es the use of
swing trading techniques to improve the timing of trades. A setup is a sign found
in candlestick movement and breadth, pointing to the best timing of either buy
or sell, and also serving as a confirm ation tool. Adding to this the tre nd
indicators found in moving averages, you gain \'aluable insights that will become
indispensable in your daily trading ~tr ategy . Moving averages show YOll not only
where prices are today, but how these aTe significant in terms of what will
happen next. Unfortunately, the popular convergence signals often come too
late to take action and maximize the timing advantage. This is where candlestick
patrnns can help you an ticipate trends well before other indicators solidify the
information.
The entire range of technical indicators involves timing of d ecisions. Candle-
stick charts are timing tools not only for trends in upward or downward direc-
tions, but also fur dete rmining the Strenh'fh of the current movement or its
weakness. Some patterns aTe easily identified, whereas others reflect a lot of
uncertainty among traders. The endless struggle between buyers and sdlers
usually involves one side or the other dominating the price mo\'ement, but at
times b U ~'ers and sellers are deadlocked. This cond ition is just as important as a
strong bull or bear pattern because it also helps time your decision to buy, sell,
or take no action.
After introducing the patterns of single and combined candlesticks,
exploring setup ~ignals, and examining moving ave rages, Trading with Candle-
sticks concludes with an analysis of candlesticks used in combi nation with
technical indicators that most chart analysts employ. Analysis of price
movement requires at least a rudimentary appreciation of a few very important
price patterns, and these are most readily recognized with candlestick patterns.
Whether YOIl are an active day trader, a swing trader, or a technician, this book
provides the essential visual and interpretative information yuu need to expand
your technical knowledge. Even the conservative value investor who dabbles in
speculation from time to time will find great value in the study of candlestick
charts.
o Introduc tion 3

The book combines several important features to help you. They include
sidebars with key points and definitions, ample checklists, and examples and
charts of actual companies (lemonstrati ng candlestick chan movement and their
interpretatinn. A wnrd ahout the charts of acmal companies: No mane r which
company's charts are used or when they are picked, any chart is likely to reflect
a range of prices that is out of date hy the time this book is puhlished. Most of
the charts in this book are fro m familiar Blue Chip companies because these
names are well known to most people, and that familiarity makes the analysis
more accessible and practical for most readers. Remember, though, that even an
out-of-date chart is revealing. [t's not the price level or current condition of a
stock that matters, but the pattern and strength or weakness of price movement.
The observations based on these charts apply to all stocks and at all price levels.
The charts are also consistent in their time frame. They are mostly one-
month dail y summaries of price movement. This approach was selected because
a majority o f traders think in terms o f the opening and closing price, breadth of
trading, and direction on a daily basis. Stocks open and d ose within the easily
defined day, and this is the best-known trading period. But it is also important
to understand that chartists use a variety of different trading periods-hourly,
Ij-mi nute, or j-min ute charts, for example. The amazing thing about chartin g
is that no matter what lenbrth of rime YOIl use in yom chart analysis. the same
rules and observations apply. A pattern is going to be found in a d aily or weekly
chart and likewise in a one-minute chart. The significance of movement is
identical even though the timing of trade decisions is different. So a trader
o riented to making decisions from day to day is going to ae[ in the venue of
Mdail(' change. A day trader, in c omparison, is likely to use the shorter-term
charts and make decisions in terms of hours nr even minutes. Both are using the
same trading information, moving averages, and patterns; that is the fad worth
remembering.
Finally, the question must arise: Where do you find free charts ? Many Web
sites offer free charts fnr virmally an y listed stock, and you can use these sites to
get what yo u need for stocks you want to track and trade. These sites also offer
subscriptions that include more ad vanced features beyo nd the hasic delayed-
quote chart. For many trad ers, t he free information provided by brokerage
firms, financial companies, and others is eno ugh. For other traders, the cost of
a subscription makes the added information worth the price.
This book is intended for the experienced trader and technician who wants
to find Ollt how charting can improve technical analysis or who needs to add to
a body of knowledge about interpreting technical patterns and rime buy, sell,
• Trading with Candlesticks

and hold decisions. Candlesticks aTC one of the best tools for aiding analysis of
srock prices and confirming indicated reversals and continuations or, equally
important, spotting signals that aTe going to faiL The point of adding to
tel:hnical knowledge through confirmation signals is to improve timing and to
employ morc traditional technical indicators in an effective timing strategy.
 5

chapter 1

The Basic Candlestick

Candlestick charting combines all the needed features of daily stock movement:
opening and dosing, breadth of t he day's trading, upward or downward price
movement, and high!1ow prices reached du ring the day . This is achieved
through a combination of shape and color.

W Candlestick Chart
A visual summary of aillhe trad ing action in a single period, showing the
opening and closing prices, breadth of trading, and upward or downward
movement in price.

At the same time, candlesticks are easy to understand. They are :lema!!y quite
simple in what they reveal. If you had to construtr rom own candlestick chart
for a single day, it would not take very long, although building a 30-day chart
would be quite an undertaking. Fortunately, modern technology includes
numerous free Internet sites that provide candlestick charts in an instant, for any
period you want to rev iew, and with any combination of indicators (price only,
volume, moving averages, MACD, and RSI, for example). T he range of infor-
mation is explained in greater detail in coming chapters. For now, you need to
be sure you understand the basics of candlesticks so th at rou can maximize
them.
6 Trad in g wi th Candlesticks

~e Origin and,Meanin
Whr it is called a ~cand!estick"? The answer is its shape-a vertical rectangle
wi th a smaller -wick" on the top a nd on the bottom. All these shapes have great
significance, of course. The use of this valuable visual tool is traced to Japan in
the seventeenth century. T he Dojima Rice Ex(hange in Osaka traded mai nly in
rice during that period, and the use of futures contracts became necessary. As
the world's first futu res exchange anywhere, trade rs on the Dojima developed
the candlestick as a way to track futllres contract trends.

"/Key Point
A candlestick is a highly visual representation of price history. showing each period's
opening and closing price, the trading range. ilnd price direction.

W Trend
The direction of price movemen t over time, which continues in ttJe same direction
until it wea kens and moves sideways or reverses.

The futures contract- whether for rice or any other commodity- is a market
necessity. When farmers plant their crups, they need to knuw in advance tha t
the re will be a market for their pr oduct, e\'en though it won't exist for several
months. Without knowing whe ther there is a market, the fa rmers cannot know
how much to plant. T he futures contract is a commitment from end users (retail
me rchants and others who need the rice product in later months). It gllarantees
a price based on market conditions at the moment. As those conditions change,
the value of the futures contract changes as well. With growth in demand, the
futures contract rises, and if demand falls, so does the futures price. For the
farmers, buying a futures Cuntrad locks in a price. When the product goes to
market, they can sell for the market price (i f highe r) or if the market has fallen ,
they can sell their futures contraL""{" and ge t the price ther need.
Just as stock prices rise or fall for any numbe r of reasons, commodity prices
are also affected by factu rs no one can anricipate. This explains why it is so
important fo r growers to be able to lock in a minimum price. A large-scale crop
failure means less rice and much greater prices, for example. With this in mind,
end users are also interested in locking in the price ther have to pay, so both
sellers (fa rmers) and buyers can take advantage of futures conrraL""{"S tu add
certainty to the market.
o The Basic Candleslick 7

This is where candlesticks enter the picture.

In Japan b}' the eighteenth centur}', the rice trade was extemive, involving
not only the trade between local growe rs and consumers, but international
commerce as well. Anal}'sts in Japan noticed that several fanors affened future s
prices. The}' included weather patterns as well as the tendencies among traders
to act in a particular wa}' based on market conditions. TUllay, stock market
wisdom is based on the same trends. \'(/hen prices rise, trade rs tend to become
greedy and overbuy, and whw pri ces fall, the)' tend to panic and sell. So rhe act
of buying high and selling low is more common than the advice to buy low and
sell high. The two factors at work-greed and panic- lead many traders to ta ke
the wrong actions based on market conditions. Traders use the candlestick to
improve their timing for both buying and selling positions, based not on gut
reaction or emotion, but on recognizable trend patterns. The candlestick is a
valuable tool because it makes it so eas}' to recognize those patterns.
As a charting tool, the candlestick reveals much more than the traditional bar
chart, also called the OHLC (open, high, low, close). The OHLC is eas}' to
construct, but with online free charting services, the more complex and
revealing candlestick chart makes much more sense.

W OHLC Chart
Abbreviation of "open, high, low, close," A type of stock chart showing a vertlcal stick
for the day's trading range and Iwo vertical. shorler protrusions showing opening and
closing prices.

III Trading Range

The price spread between highest and lowest points on a daily bar or over a period
of lime; the breadth 01 trad ing between Ihose two points.

If you had to huild your own chan s every day, the OHLC chart would be
easier to work with than the candlestick. But with the free Internet services
available, you can use candlesticks to get much better visual summaries for the
s,1me effort. A side-by-side view of both chart types makes this point. Figure \ -
I compares OHLC and candlestick charts for the same price movement of a
stock.
• Tradin g wit h CandlUlick,

o,,~ C.nJ leuick

" ""
,
, """ ,"
•, ""
,•, "" ,, I
,"
+-tl
~l !l

""
~

+'1"
,, "" l-t-J--f J f
• ""
" r E
, ""
• ""
" .'6?¢O'"
,, """ ,, ,"""
, ",0 , '",
,• "," ,• •,
" "
Figure 1·1 Comparison 01 OHLC and cand lestick charts

Notice how much more information yOLl see- instantly- with the candle-
stick chart. The firS! two and last two dars are downward-moving (black boxes),
and all the rest are upward-moving (white ooxes). The extens ions above and
below the boxes show the trading range, whereas the opening and dosing prices
are found on the top and bottom of the box . When the tre nd is downward, the
top of the box is the opening price and the bottom is the closing price, and vice
ve rsa for an uptrend day.
Each attribute of the candlestick has a name. Figure 1-2 summarizes the
names of each segment of the candlestick.

• high
•
• "" "
sh.tdow
•
do"",
• • O~"

• ",'
boo,

O~--_. 'l~-- lower

••~----cl 05 C
• sh adow

• 10.... •
Figure , ·2 The candlestick
o The a3~it Cand lestic! ,
V'" Key Point
The white candlestick occurs when prices move up, and a black rectangle occurs when
prices move down. This makes it easy to see. at a glance, the direction and duration of
every trend.

The open and close are opposite on upward- and downward.trending days,
as Figure 1-2 shows. The rectangular box (the real body) is the range from the
day's opening to closing price. The full breadth of trading, including extensions
above and below the range of open-to-close, is represented by the upper and
lower shadows. When you compare the candlestick to the same day's OHLC,
the candlestick's advantages are clear. Jt is more visuaJJy revealing, especiall)'
when you view a series of days neX( to one another.

m Real Body
The rectangle in a candlestick, representing the area between the day's opening and
closing price but excluding the total range above and below those levels (upper and
lower shadows).

III Shadow
The portion 01 the candlestick above and below the real body. The upper shadow
shows the distance between the trad ing range (open to close) and the highest price
of the day, and the lower shadow shows the distance between the trading range and
the lowest price of the day.

The most apparent benefit of candlesticks is their imme<liate revelation of

trends. The first illustration (Figure 1-1 ) showed this by comparison. The
uptrend (white bodies) and downtrend (black bodies) days jumped out of the
formation. A.~ with most types of analysis, no single day's results are as
important as the multiday trend, and this is where candlesticks present a definite
advantage.
With the OHLC chart, the moveme nt is tracked over a period of time, but it
is much more difficult to recognize a trend. In the next few chapters, you will
discover how bull and bear trends, reversal and market patterns all develop, and
10 Trad in g wi th Candlesticks

are recognizable with candlesticks. The greatest advantage is going to be found

in what is revealed in dOllble-sti,k and triple-stick patterns. These are two -day
and three-day formatio ns that foreshadow movement and provide indications of
the stre n gth (or weakness) in the current trend.
This is the primar)' advantage to candlesticks. Because all the price infor-
mation is represented in a visual format invo lving side and color, the im portance
of the trend as it evolves is more readily seen. This improves your riming for
entering and exiting positions. The simple formation of the cand1esti<;k gives
)'OLl a lot of information in a split-second glance.

Trad ers like to know as qui(kly as possihle whether the short-term trend is
bullish (white) or bearish (black). Wi th the OHLC chart, the implications of
day-to-{lay change are not as obvious, so the tre nd is also more difficult to spor,
not only in terms of direction, but also in terms of strength or weakness. As a
trend evolves, the strength or weakness is likely to change as well, and the
candlestick is the most effective tool for recognizing this change.
For review over a long period of time, candlesticks are more limited than the
OHLC chart. Because the candlestick is wider than the simple OHLC stick, a
chan with a longer time period gets crowded with candlesticks. To solve this
problem, traders may abandon the daily chart format in favor of weekly
summaries. This approach simplifies the chart but may combine information in
a way that obscures the detailed trend as weI! as meaningful patterns as they
emerge. Most traders need to sUidy every day's price movement to better unde r-
stand both price behavior and trad er opinions. T he lise of longer periods makes
chan reviews easier bur obscures the important daily trend. A sol ut ion is to limit
chart duration (for example, reviewing no more than one month at a time) and
use separate cbarts to sUid y longer~term tre nds. When charts with the same scale
are placed side by side, multiple months can be reviewed wi thout the confusion
resulting from overcrowding of the candlestick bodies.
Another drawback to candlesticks is that trends can be misinterpreted if the
chan itself is not studied carefully. False and failing signals are common in all
forms of charting, so everyone rel ying on the timing provided in charts has to
proceed with caminn. A series of uptrend days, for example, might indicate a
bullish condition in the stock. But if the trading range or the range between high
and low is nar rowing, the field of white charts could easily obscure a more
revealing internal development in the price trend. A continuing uptrend may be
weake ning, in fact, so the attributes o f the candlestick have to be reviewed in full
context, and not just by color of the real body.
Candlesticks, like all charts, are restricted to price trends and, in some cases,
to volume in the stock. This means that technical data beyond the daily trading
o The Basic Candlesti ck
"
range and price direction may be ignored in the analysis. If you want to develop
a complete view of the current trend, you also need moving ave rages and other
technical data to make the review as complete as possible. The judgment you
bring to the timing of trades requires consideration of many attributes, not just
the short-term price trend. Although trade rs do tend to make decisions based on
short-term price changes, the intermediate and long-term trends are equally
important. This is where it becomes valuable to combine candlestick analysis
with moving ave rages and a few other revealing technical indicators. Fortu-
nately, many free charting sites provide this additional information as part of the
complete chart .

../Key Point
No single indicator is valuable unless viewed in a larger context. Candlestick charts show
the greatest insight when the sticks are augmented with moving averages and other
technical data .

Candlesticks are valuable, but by themselves, they do not gi\'e you the entire
~torr . As you move through the book, addi tional indicators and their confir-
mation value will be introduced one by one and explained. By the end of the
book, you will see how bringing a full range of technical signals into your
analysis enriches your analytical capabilities. Based on the candlestick as a
primary initial indicator, you will also know how to employ volume, moving
averages, and a few other important technical gauges.
With any form of charting- whethe r OHLC o r candlesticks- imp rov ing the
instances of well-timed decisions is in itself a worthwhile outcome. Experienced
trade rs know that not ever)" trade will bt: profitable or well timed, and that each
poorly timed trade is a learning experience. This is why dive rsification is so
crucial for successful nading. Candlesticks are valuable tools for developing a
body of informed knowle<lge, but no analytical tool can ensure 100 percent
profitability.
With candlestick anal)'Sis, as with most forms of technical study, you need to
master a large number of patterns and come to unde rstand their significance,
apply these patterns to actual situations, and evaluate outcomes. These steps
help )'ou not onl)' to develop worki ng knowledge of candlestick chan analrsis,
but also to find out what can go wrong. This knowledge- the negative or loss
experience- is at least as valuable as having a series of trades th:u are all
profitable. Losing is also an experience, but one that is more painful than what
)'ou learn through winning.
12 Tradin g with Cilndl es ticks

Improving technical expertise by employing a paper trading program makes

sense. This is a tria! run for a portfolio, in which you start om with a fictitious
portfolio, enter buy and sell orders, and see the resulting profits and losses.
Because you are improving rom observations whil e goi ng through these paper
trades, you do not actuallr lose money, but rou can discover how trades are
likely to come out and how analysis of candlesticks improves what YOLl already
know how to do. So reliance on a chart pattern that is not as reliable as you had
thought is very in5trucrive. Paper trading helps you to beneT appreciate the
subtle meaning of patterns and how information can be misread. For any
system, paper trading is a smart technique. Even experienced traders can benefit
by trying out expansions on a technical program in a paper tra<ling forum,
before putting real money on the line. You might benefit by maintaining a paper
trading system alongside )'Ollr ~reaJ money" portfo lio.

ru Paper Trading
A method for becoming famil iar with strategies, in which a fictitious portfolio is traded
using "virtual money,· This technique enables you 10 see the outcomes of different
tim ing strategies, but without losing real money.

Many sites offer free paper trading software, manr promuted a~ contests or
games (with prizes awarded for the best-performing paper portfolio), and others
are simply free initially, leading tu prumutions for membership in mo re
advanced services. Many brokerage firms offer variations of this idea; the
following sites also offer free paper trading programs:

• Iflvestopedia link to Investopedia's Investing Game at

www.investopedia.com
• Trading Simulation link to Virt ual r ape r Trading at
W\\lW,tradingsimulation,com
• Wall St reet SlIwivor link to Vi rtual Stock and Option ronfn lin at
www.wallstreetslirvivor.com
• Market Wllteh link to Virtual Stock Exchange at
hap://vSt:. ma rketwatch.com
• How the Mllrket Works link to Fantasy Stock T rading at
www.howthemarketworks.com
o The Basic Cand lestick 13

• Virtual Stock Tradillg link to Virtual Stock Trading Games at

www.virrualstockrrading.com
• UMOO link to Tournament Lobby at www.umoo.com

Of course, all Web sites offering free features also promote sponsored
sub!Kription services or try to sell upgrades to you. These sites are useful for
starting out in a paper trading program, though, and they provide opportunities
for you to apply what you learn about candlestick charts as you move through
the learning process .

../ Key Point

Paper trading is a method for making simulated trades without risking capital. This
activity aids in improving your analytical and timing skills.

The most valuable insight you can expect from a paper trading program as
an ongoing technical management process is to seek a correlation between your
interpretations of candlestick patterns with actual price behavior. T his involves
two aspects. Fir5t, economic factors are involved, which are complex and far
reaching but can be summed up and described as the forces of ~s uppl)' and
demand." Most traders know how this works: increased demand for stock
drives up the price, and weakening demand drives down the price. This involves
far more than market forces in their pure form, however; outside economic
news, earnings, competition, consumer confidence, c),clical changes, and much
more also provide change to prices in both directions. Jr's the second factor that
is more interesting and subtle: the trading behavior of "the market" as a
collection of investors. Much of the da.i!y price movement of stocks is chaotic
and represents overreaction to news and information. Swing traders know this
and trade on the emotions of the market. Whether you are swing tradiog or
using candlesticks as confirmation 1001s, being aware of how short-term price
movement works greatly improves your timing. By resisting the urge to iump
onto the emotional rolJer coaster of the ma rket, ),ou are able to look for patterns
as they emerge and improve your short-term entry and exit strategies.
Detailed tracking of candlestick charts for a particular stock reveals how
prices change based on current news and financial reports. It is interesting to see
how different stocks react 10 the same news; for example, if one company's
quarterly earnings report is helow expectations, that company's competitors
might see a temporarr upward movement in the stock price. If a national
statistic is promising, stocks in affected sectors wi ll react positively (or when [he
statistic is negative, the same stock prices might fall).
 Trading wit h Candlulickl
"
None of the short-term calise and effect in stock pT1CC movement IS
meaningful in the long term. Value investing calls for holding onto shares for
months or years. However, that short-term price movement is where you find
trading opportuni ties. By tracking stock price changes through candlestick
chans (along with othe r technical indicators), you discO\'cr patterns that signal
the time to make a move. These arc most often based not on long-term fun da-
mental value, hut more on what is taking place today and tomorrow.
You arc going to discover that there are two major areas to focus on in the
L1SC of candlesticks within yo ur technical program. FirH is the tendency for the
stock to react to marke t ne ws; some stocks Tcaer with vola tile price changes to
even the slightest change., whe reas other stocks tend to ignore news. The secu nd
area to focus on is the developme nt of chart panerm and trends. This is where
most chart watchers focus, but you need to smdy both the stock's reaction to
market news and the developmen t of chart patterns.

he Skills Every Trade

Anyone embarking on a new strategy has to accept the learning curve that goes
with it. Even experie nced traders who will he analyzing stocks hased on ca ndle-
stick formations for the first time have to proceed calltioLlsly. There are five
important skills eve ry trade r needs, based un experience as well as your personal
risk tolerance. Every trader needs to review his strategies and portfolio cuntin-
Llousl y even after years of experience, to make sure he is not viulating his own
trading rules (specifically, goals set based on risk tolerance and market cundi-
tions).

III RiskTolerance
The degree of risk you are wilTing and able to take in your porlfolio, based on many
faclors including knowtedge about the market, experience, capital, budget, portfolio
size, and personal financial situation. The defined risk lolerance level identifies the
kinds of investments anyone can afford to make.
o The 8asic Candlestick
"
'/Key Point
Knowing how much risk to take is critical for every in vestor: equally importan t is
mastering analytical tools like candlesticks to ensure that you can use them most
effectively.

These fi ve important skills are

I. A com/llete al)preciation of the risk element in all trading. Eve ryo ne knows
that risk, as a general concept, is the chance of losing money instead of
making money. But in fact, risk has numerous other aspects that everyone
needs to know about. Th ese aspect include the double exposure to taxes
and inflation, for example. You need to know yo ur breakeven rate, the rate
you need to earn lIet of taxes, to match inflation and break even. l
Many of these ri sks (like the tax and inflation risk) are im'isible. For
example, yu u migh t be exposed tu an invisible risk if )'uu have diversified
your portfolio into many different stocks and sectors, all o f which are
expus!!d to the same economic or cyclical effe cts. To dete rmine whether or
not you are adeq uately situated based on your own risk tolerance level, YOIl
need to evaluate a range of differem risk-relatetl questions.
2. The ability to effectively diversify without going too far. The concept of
d iversification is more complicated than some traders realize. It is not
enough to own several different stocks if they are in the same market
sector, or are subiect to similar or identical market forc es. Diversification
can take manr forms, including division between direct stock and mutual
fund shares; equity and debt; nonstock trading in future s, options or ETFl
shares; and using hedging strategies to reduce risks (for example, offsetting
stocks with gold or curren cy positions).
At the same time, there is another danger: overdiversification. If yo u
spread capital around too much, YO ll can gain only the ave rage rate of the
entire portfolio. This could mean your potemial profits are reduced
because strong positions are absorbed by weaker ones. T his is one of the
major arguments against sector-based ETFs, in which the basket of stocks is
going to include a range of both strong and weak sector stocks. You can
also O\'erdiversify by holding shares of too man}" diverse stocks; depending
on mark et conditions and risk to lerance, it is often more dfective to own a
small number of carefully selected stocks and focus attention on the trading
patterns and trends of those few instead of try ing to pia}' a larger segment
of the marke t.
16 Tradin g wi th Ca nd lesticks

3. Mastery oller the advantage (and trap) of leverage. The concept of leverage
is widdy known. It is using a sum of money to borrow additional money to
invest. It is far riskier than just investing on a cash basis, but leverage also
has its place . Most people who buy a ho use use leve rage when they borrow
money through their mortgage, for example. For investors, it is practically
automatic to he granted a margin line of credit by your broker. You can
borrow up 10 half of the money yOll need to buy shares of stock. This gives
you a great advantage as long as the stock's value increases.
On the other side of the issue are the COSt and risk. When you borrow
through your margin account, your broker ch:lrges you interest. And if the
valm: of your holdings declines, rOll still have to par back what you
borrowed, If the value of rour portfolio falls below the initial margin, the
difference has to be made up; [hat means you need to invest more cash .
This is common knowledge among traders, but it helps to insert this
reminder in the context of trading risk and reward. When rO ll ge t a margin
call, you should always ask this question; Is it worthwhile to keep the
position open, o r should m)' lo sses be cut he re and now ? If you want to cut
rOUT losses, rou ha\'e to close the position as soon as possible. If rou wan t
to keep it open, you need to de::posit funds immetliatdy. If you do not close
the position OTdeposi t the additional sum to meet ma rgin requiremen ts,
your broker will sell some of yo ur holdings. J
4. COllt rol over and planlling for liquidity. O ne of the least-understood
concepts in the market is liquidity. The word has several meanings, but for
traders it simpl)" mea ns having enough cash on hand to make trades when
you want to. If your capital is fully co mmitted, you cannot take advantage
of new opportunities when ther arise. O ne of the greatest mistakes traders
make is taking profits when they are available but keeping loss-position
securities in the ir accounts. T h.is attrition results in a portfolio fully
invested in stocks that have ded ined in value. The illiquidity of this
situation ties yo u up and preve nts yo u from making any further
invest ments even when great oppornlnities come along.
A solution is to manage liquidity with a few commonsense rules. First,
always keep some cash on hand. (Opinions vary, bllt between 5 and 10
percent of your portfolio kept in cash is a reasonable leveL) Second, if you
take profits, offset a portion of the g.1in by also se11ing loss position stocks.
5. Acceptance of the col/stant need to acquire more knowledge. Even the
most experienced trader hces an ever-changing body of knowledge about
the markets and needs to keep informed of wha t is going on. This is true in
the overall marke ts and commu nications tech nology, which enables
o The Basic Candleslick 17

efficient access to market information; it is also true o f individual

companies and their technical and fundamental information . Status of
every company (in terms of price strength or weakness, emerging trends,
and changes in comparison to competing from companies) is also changing
every day. So knowledge has to be maintained on several levels, the basic
skills every trader needs, to the company-specific attributes affening prices
and current Of future trends.

Your ability to renew and maintain your knowledge base defines how much
control you have over your trading experience. The more you monitor an
individual company's trends and volatility levels, the better your timing
becomes. With candlestick charts, YOll have powerful visllal tools for recog-
nizing subtle but important changes in the current trend and the beginnings of
reversals and continuation patterns.

v"" Key Point

By knowing the popular myths of the market, you are belter able to avoid the mistakes
associated with them. Wise investing is often simply a matter of knowing the difference
between fact and myth.

Beyond the logical ski!! set YOll need to master technical analysis and
charting, you also need to be aware of the popular myths and pithlls that
permeate the market and the trading psychology of a highl)' superstitious trading
culture. Technicians can easily fall into one or more of these pitfalls, including
• The tendency to think there is a secret (orlllllia Ollt there somewhere.
Realistically. you know there is no such thing; otherwise, getting rich
within a few trading sessions would be easy. The uncertainty of trading is
what makes it so challenging and interesting. You cannot know the future
any more than )'OU can change the pmt; that's the reality .
• An IIIICOIISciollS belie( that all entry ()rice is the start o( every trend and thilt
prices will a/ways move in the desired direction (rom thai point onward.
So many traders, even those who have been in the business for years,
mistakenly fall intu the trap uf thinking that when they enter a position,
prices will begin to move as they desire. This is based on the use o f entry
signals or simply on munitoring price and picking the "'right mumem~ [0
jump in. But an entry price is not the 7.ero point in a trend; it is part of a
continuing change in price, affe{.1:ed by numerous imcrJcriuns within the
market. Although everyone knows this logically. not everyone always
knows it emotional1y, and that's where the pitfall lies.
18 Tradin g wit h C 8 ndl n 1ick~

• The aSSllml!liOIl that price movement is, somehow, a "conscious" element

of the market. It is easy to treat price and its trend as a conscioLls element,
and many traders fall into this belief. It is a for m of magical thinking, the
belief (or desire) that something can be made to occur by the power of the
mind or through outside forces (like wearing a ~Iucky shirt" whe n yo u
enter trades). i\bny will not admit it, but some form of magical thinking is
used widely. (For example, a trader named Dell might believe that Dell
Computer stock value wil! rise because they share the same name.)

Using candlestick charts as a primary tracking and timing tool requires that yOll
also have a mastery o f a few basic technical theories. A short list of technical
indicators is Ilseful in de termining the significance of a trend or a sudden change
in price (level and direction)_ By itsel f, the chart---(:andlestick or other type-
has limited value. Besides recognizing a specific shape to a short-term movement
based o n the vis ual development o f a {lay's trade as seen in the candlestick, you
also need to be aware of the overall pattern in the price trend. Concepts like
support and resistance and patterns like breakouts, gaps, head and shoulders,
double or triple bottoms (or tops), and moving averages reveal meaningful
changes or confirmations in the current trend_ So besides tracking the panern of
single candlesticks or a series of candlestick developments, rou also need to
follow the larger technical picture. The candlestick chart is the easel, and the
broader indicators are the paint.
The last chapter in this book, Chapter 10, analyzes the most popular and
important technical indicators. These are the essential tools for measuring the
strength of trends and even the safety in the current price level of stock. So the
candlestick chart provides a single source for starting the analrtical task, and
much more, including

• The significance of single candle signs within the context of the CUrrt:nt

trend
• Developing double moves and triple patterns of candlesticks and
unde rstanding what they mean withi n the larger tre nd
• Coordination o f the candlestick fo rmation and short-term tre nd with the
longe r-term tre nd revealed by the technical patrern, tradi ng range, and
moving averages
o The a3~it Candlestic! 19

• Im portant signals involving a combination of the <:andlesri ck pauerns,

volume of trading, and technical indicators, Ilsed collecti vely to de\'elop a
sillglliar opinion about the timing of entry or exit decisions
The simple signs and moves revealed by candlestick charts are only the
starting point. Even the more complex candlestick pauerns that grow from this
initial trend have to be used as part of a more encompassing technical program.
It is essential to learn the meanings of candlestick movements, hut the t\Vo·stick
and three-stick indicators that evolve signal changes of great importance.

III Sign
A single cand lestick that provides initial indications about a reversal or continuation
in the overall trend.

W Move
A double-stick formation that foreshadows either a reversal or continuation in the
current price trend.

III Pattern
A candlestick formation of three or more trading periods that strongly indicates a
reversal or continuation of the current trend .

../Key Point
The concept of confirmation is a cornerstone of eve/}' technical system. No one piece of
information should be relied upon for timing entry and exit. Every indicator is at its
highest value when it is confirmed by a separate but equally important one.

Using candlesticks as an initial indicotor of what is about to occur is a wise

idea because the dailr price action is the starting point for the more developed
technical signal. Candlesticks are ear1r indicators of changes not only in
direction, but also in emerging strength or weaknns in the current n end. So if
you think of the candlestick pattern in this way, the more traditional technical
signals confirm the indicators first seen in the (klily candlestick. The concept of
confirmation is a basic idea Ilsed by technical analysts to strengthen their
opinions about how to interpret price patterns.
" Trad in g wit h Candl es ticks

m Confirmation
The use of an indicator to verify the meaning 01 a separate indicator occurring althe
same time or earlier, consisting of movement in an index or individual stock price,
changes in price trend direction, or iniliation of an entry or exist signal.

No approach to price analysis should take place in isolation. This means that
rOll cannot make rdiable en rry and exist decisions based only on shorHerm
price movement seen on the candlestick chart. You also need a range of
indicators stretching over the longer term, an undersranding of each stock's
volatility level, and the strength (H weakness of the current trend. This is why
rOll need to combine candlestick charts wi th other technical indicaTOrs. T he

more indicators you add together, the better your information pool.
A word of cautiun: Using too many indicators douds the results. You need
to be able to make an informed decision an<1 confirm that decision through
second ary indicators. There comes a point when you have enough dara to make
an informed decision, and going beyond this will not add to your in formation.
The time element, plus the simple excess of information, then turns and
confuses the picture rather than clarifying it.

xpariding the Informal

Beyond the technical side, it also makes sense to pay attention to a company's
fundamenrals, those financial vahles that define a companr's capital strength
and profi tability. Even though shorHerm traders te nd to shun the backward·
oriented financial indicators, they can be used to narrow down the range of
stocks you want to trade, based on price volatility and fin ancial strength.
Considering that there arc thousands of stocks to choose from, which ones do
you want to use for short-term swing trading and ti ming o f entr), and exit? You
need some criteria for narrowing down the range of stocks ),011 want to usc. This
is where the fundamenta ls can be valuable.
Por example, ),011 migh t decide to limit your trades to companies wi th a few
important financial attributes. These could be an)" of dozens of indicators, but
some very important ones include

1. Basic profitability. Even the most speculative trades can be limited to those
companies that have reported growing revenues and profits. Por some
traders, the question is, Why buy shares in a company t hat has never
shown a profit? As a rudimentary selection question, this eliminates those
o The Basic Candlesti ck
"
troubled companies that bave fallen from previous years of competitive
streogth as well as those that have not yet proven that they can carve out a
co mpe titive place fo r themselves.
2. Strollg workillg capital. T ht: ability of a company to finance its operations
and pay for expansion is an essential test, perhaps even more important
than profitability. A favorite ratio is the comparison betwt:en current assets
(those convertible to cash within 12 months) and current liabilities (debts
payable within 12 months). T his is an important test, but an equally
valuable one is the debt ratio. This is the percentage of total capitalization
represented by debt. T utal capitalization is the sum of long~te r m debt and
shareholde r's equity. If debt is growing each year, it erodes the company's
abili ty to fund future growth. Dividends have to fall as interest ubligatiuns
rise. For example, by 2008 before General lvlotors filed bankruptcy, its
debt ra tio was over 100 percent. This meant that the sharehulders' equity
was worth less than zero, which is not a good sign. A company's chances of
ever recuvering from such an extreme situation are very pour.

W Total Capitalization
The sum of capital that funds a company's operations, consisting of equity (share-
holders' capi tal) debt (long-term loans and bonds).

3. Higher thall average dividellil yield. Anothe r important fundamental test is

<1ividend yield. A company that is able to pay better than average dividends
is the exceptiun, and th is itself is a sign uf financial success. A wmpany
must have cash from profits to be ab Ie to pay di\'idends. An expanded
qualificatiun is [Q limit the selectiun [U "dividend achievers:' those
companies whose dividend rate has grown every year for the past ten years
ur mure.
4. Acceptable priceleamings ratio range. The comparison of price per share to
earnings per share, or the PIE ratio, is one of the most important indicators
of whether or not the price is a bargain. The PIE multiple (price divided by
earnings and reported as a single number) is significant; it is the number of
years' annual earnings represen ted in the price per share. So a PIE of 10 is
the equivalent of a price worth ten yea rs' net earnings for the company.
T he higher the PIE moves, the more expensive the stock becomes. As a
general rule, most traders and investors li ke to see the PIE between 10 and
20. But as it gets higher, the risk level increases as welL
" Trading with Cil ndlesticks

Fundamental indicators, juSt like technical indicaturs, are "'rules of thumb~

for a company's value and stren gth. Because of this, no indicators should be
vitwed alone. They gain significance only when analYlcd comparatively on two
levels. First, they have to be compared between companies in the same market
sector. (T hus, a d rug company with a dividend yield uf 6 percent and PIE of 12
is stronger than a competitor with a 2 percctlt dividend yield and a PIE of 45 .)
Second, they have to be viewed as part of a fundame ntal tr end. (Fu r example, a
company with a debt ratio tha t is fallin g by 5 percent per year and is now at 35
pe rcent is mure prumising than one whose debt ratio keeps guing up and is
greater than 50 percent of total ca pitalization,)

.,/ Key Point

Everyone needs to place a limit on the number of indicators he will watch. The most
sensible approach is to combine a limited number of technical and fundamenral trends.

It's all relative, in other words.

That is the ke)' to ever), form oJ anal)'sis, and the same applies to candlestick
charts. If )'0\1 look at the charts o f two competing companies, you gain insight
to price strength and the current trend of each. If ),O ll review the chart along
with moving averages over the past year in additio n to over the past month, you
advance )'our knowledge about tha.t compan(s longer-term direction. The more
expanded the field of vision, the better )'our information.
Chapter 2, "'Single-Stick Signs, ~ introduces the basic signs ),Oll find in single
candlesticks and explains what the)' mean. The central lesson to remember is
tha t, even with some exotic names to patterns and lines, candlesticks are eas)' to
read. You can tell at a glance whet her the current price movement of the stock
is upward or downward, and whether it is strong or weak. Chapter 2 shows how
this works.

1. To compme your ~f,eNn and af'er·infla,ion br~ahv~n . divide ,he rurr~m ra,~ of inn" tion
by your ,f,eNax income or rI .. difference between 100 perce", ,nd your df"'tive tax u,e
(be sure 10 include both federal and mHe [~xes in this calcula'ion. 'n,e fonnula: (rMe of
infIJ/;o" ~ f /00 - .ff~./ive / u r~te)). For enmpl., if yOLO pay a combined fedeTal a"d Slo..
[ax rMe of 42 pc".", and ,h. ,,,,,r.,,, rale of innalio" is J perce"" )'ollr hte3~.ve"
re'luiremell' is ( J% + ( JUO - 4 2 )) = 5. 2%. This is lhe .,'e )'on mn51 car" jus, 10 COVer yon '
risks based on ,axes and infl ation.
o The Basic Candl€st ick
"
2. ETF, ar~ Exchange Traded f nnd,. mntual (und, rhar hav~ a pr.·idelllifi.d "ba.hl" o( .rocks
and rrad. on exchange, like ,tocks. rather [hall directly with lhe fund', manage",e"'. ikcall..,
{h. portfolio i. ide",ifi.d in advance alld doe, not change, manage",.", fe .. are lower bec""..,
110 mall age me", is required other [han mai"'en,"u of [he exi'ting portfolio. However. ,he
ETf i, goillg '0 perform ollly at the aver,ge of all ,he "(loCk, in it. portfolio, inciudi"g those
performing well above and well below the avcr .• ge. For m.my traJers, ETF, are a form "f
overdiversificotion. For olhers, lhey or, an e(feelivew.1,. 10 .proad ri.k a nd ro d",,. .ingle-
"ock ri,ks.
3 . The m i., governing inilial margin (a ll IInder t he Fed.ral Reserve Board', Regulation T. Thi.
provid.. {h,l )'011 call borrow up to SO p..nlH of the valli, of ..,curiti.. in YOIlT ac.oun!.
This page intentionally left blank
 "
chapter 2

Single-Stick Signs

The most practical way to master candlestick charting is to start with the single-
stick sign and evaluate it, and then move to double-stick moves, and finally,
move on to the morc complex multistick patterns. Each formation yOll find in
charts is important in what it reveals about the current trend: strength or
weakness, direction, o r pending reversal.
Every analyst faces t he challenge of interpretation. Even with an excellent
unde rstanding of how formations develop, the imme<liate pattern can represent
a false start. Every trend has these patterns. T he apparent direction or change in
smtus misleads rou if you do not fully undnstand how to combine many
djffe rent candlestick and technical indicators, or a change occurs with no
warning. Can rOll see patterns emerging or use candlestick analysis to amicipate
the next step in a trend? That is the big question .

In all forms of chart analysis, YOII rely on chart patterns to determine whether
the currem trend is bullish (upward) or bearish (down ward). This trend is not
identical to the longe r-te rm p rimary trend in the market as a whole. For swing
traders, the ~tre nd " is the price direction that is set for three days or more .

./Key Point
A technical/rend is es/ablished when three or more periods move in the same direction,
both on the top and bollom of the price range.
26 Tradi ng with Ca ndl estic ks

The "day ~ is lIsed as a Typical trading period because mOST people anal yze
stock prices from each day's opening and closing levels. Traders come in many
varieties, however, so the trading period you end up using could be shorter.
People wanting fast action and a lot of in-and-om of positions use the 60-
minute, IS-minute, and 5-minute charts. These da)' trade rs also tend to be risk
takers, so the LIse of short-term c h arts is not appropriate for eve ryo ne. Refer-
ences to trading periods used in th is book are normally references to single-day
move ment.
Chart llse rs come in man y types. Some speculate but onl y moderatel)" and
ri sk onl y a small amo unt of (as h. Others lise a lot of cash and leve rage, and rely
o n small changes applied to big dollar amounts. In either case, charr watching
rdies on we11·defined uptrends an d downtrends.
An uptrend is made up o f th ree or more periods o f rising prices, but with a
distinct pattern . Each day's candlestick consists of a series of higher highs offset
by higher lows. So the candlestick o f the second day has to exceed the previous
day's high and low to qualify as an entry in a true uptrend . For example,
consider the following comparison of prices:

D•• Tile Uptrend Pattern The Nonuptrend Pattern

high 45 101'143 high 45 101'143
2 high 47 101'144 high 47 101'142

3 high 48 101'146 high 46 101'144

[n this short example, the uptrend pattern shows growth in an upward

d irection, both in the daily high and low prices. In the nonuptrt:nd, even though
the re was upward movement, it was not a t rend. The subsequent high of the
third dar was lower than that of the second d ay. and the sccond d ar's low was
[ower than the first day's.

m Uptrend
A shorHerm pattern of three or more periods, characterized by each period's higher
high price levelS and higher low pric e levets.
• Single-Sti ck Signs 27

A downtrend is also carefully qualified. It consists of a series of changes

lasting thr~e periods or more, combining lower lows and lower highs. A trend
is set only if it consistently produces the defined resu lts for three periods or
more, although the trend can also laSt many more periods; three is the ge nerall y
acknowledged minimum. For example:

D., The Downtrend Pattern The Nondowntrend Pattem

high 45 low43 high 45 low43
2 high 43 low 42 high 43 low 44
3 high 42 low41 high 44 10·// 41

m Downtrend
A short-Ierm paltern of three or more periods, characterized by each period's lower
low price levels and lower high price levels.

In the true downtrend, the second and third days report lower highs and
lower lows. In the nondownward variet}', the overall trend is downward, but it
lacks the defined qualities. T he third day's high is higher than the second, and
the second day's low is higher, not lower, than the first. The trend ends at the
point where a subsequent signal occurs, often a narrow-range da)' (explained
later in this chapter) or other signs fouo d in candlestick formations.
Figure 2-1 provides an example of a 90-da)' chart for Travelers rrRV)
showing a series of both uptrends and downtrends. Note the progression of
three or more candlesticks in the same direction and the conformiry (in most
instances) to the ~rules~ establishing the trend: higher highs with higher lows for
uptrends, and lower lows with lower highs for down trends. (Not all these short-
term trends fit the mle, but as a guideline, it is useful as the chart demonstrates.)
The points of reversal, represented b)' narrow-range da)'s and other candlestick
patterns, are also highlighted.
" Tra din g with CandiUlick5

TRV (T,a~s Cos, Inc ) NYSE .StockC hlrt~co.,

2H,"V'2OOQ Op 4ElD4 IJi 4Q.2Q Lo "11 qo CI 49.20 Vol ~,1 " Chg 00.3(1 (-0{1.82"'1.....
TlI.V (O ..ily)

revers.1

"

Chart cour!csy of StockCharts.com

Figure 2·1 Uptrends and downtrends

he,Significance of a
As a first step in working with candlesri<;k charts, you need to recognize what a
particular candlestick formation reveals. Terminology applied to visual patterns
is crucial to working with candlesticks. T hese terms--real body, u(JPer shadow,
and {ower shadow- are important because the size of each of these components
make up the signs, moves, and patterns themselves. When you need to distin-
guish between bull and bear patterns, or between reversal patterns and market
patterns, the individual candlestick attributes take on great importance.

"Key Point
There is a tendency to look at the entire candlestick as a single factor in the trend, using
either the real body only or the price range only, 80th are important in setting trends and
in anticipating reversals about to occu~

In addition, it is important to make a distin,,1:iun between the rea l bod)' (the

white o r black rectangle) and the larger trading range. The range extends from
the tip of the upper shadow (the high of the dar) to the tip o f the lower shadow
(the low of the day), There is a tendency among technicians to par more
• Single-Sti ck Signs 29

attention to the range from high to low, than from open to close. In fact, the
O HLC chart more readily shows this range-based pattern, even though the
totality of range and o pen-close is collectively important. T he meaning o f these
outcomes together is important, and neithe r range or open-close works by itself.
Caodlestick terminology is somewhat d ifferent from the corresponding OHLC
terminology. For example, an O HLC chart shows a -long range" from highest
to lowest price, and the candlestick, with more emphasis on open-close, is
descri bed as a tall or short candle (the difference in size of the real body, which
is the open-close range).
A long candle is goi ng to take on significance as an entry in the current range,
and will mean different things if the rectangle is white (uptrend) or black
(downtrend ). T he longer the candle rea! hody is, the stronger the move appears
in the indicated direction. This trend is not necessarily revealed in the total
range (as emphasized with OHLC charting) because man y intraday factors
might affect the range, including high volatility in the first hour of trading that
is not typical of the enti re day; reaction to economic news that takes place and
later reverses; or higher volatile change due to rumors that are later proved to
be false. So relying on range instead of open-close can he deceptive and
misleading.
The long candle (also called a tall candle) can he defined as a "significant~
move for the da y in relative terms. Simp ly being longer than the previous day's
candle is not significant by itself. But if today's candle is twice the exte nsion of
the typical candle ran ge, it takes on much greater meaning. Big price movemen t
is invariably worth paying attention to. So, for example, if a stock's daily price
movement is typically in the one-half to one-point price range, an unexpected
two-point candle is very significant.
The relationship between the open-close range and the shadows is also
significant, another reason that candlesticks are val uable analytical tools. When
a bullish long candle forms (a large r-than-average white rectangle), that is :10
uptrend in the day's price. However, an additional sign adds to the indication
that the moveme nt is a strong upward moveme nt . This sign is found when the
day's price opens near the low price for the full day and closes near the high.
This is qu ickly recognizable because there wi!! be little o r no upper or lower
shadow. This is an important change when the formation appears afte r an
extended downtren d in the stock's price. It can indicate the end of the
downtrend. The opposite can be interpreted when the long white candle shows
up after a long uptrend. T he longer-than-average price movement could signal
exhaustion in buyer interest and foreshadow a leveling out and a decli ne in price
to follow in coming sessions.
3D Tradin g wl1h Ca ndlestic ks

The opposite observations apply to bear long candles (black real bodies), A
long black candle opening near the high and closing near the low is quickly
recognized by the small or missing shadows. When this appears at the end of an
uptre nd, it may signal the end of the tre nd and J coming reversal. When this
long candle shows up afte r a period of downtrend, it could be the sign that
sellers are exhausted, which is followed by a reversal and movement in the other
direction.
You may notice that lunger real bodies tend to show shorte r-than-average
shadows. This is typical. However, what does it means when a day's outcome
combines a long bodr with a long upper or lower shadow? As J general rule.
extended shadows reveal which side (buyers or sellers) is in control. When the
uppe r shadow is extend ed along with a long real body, it implies that buyers are
in a stronger position ; when the lower shadow is longer, sellers are calling the
shots. Of course, these are general izations and do not apply universally, bur the
signs and shapes are revealing when taken as part of a larger trend .

• llllli ariations on .lhe Bullis

Although the white candle&tick denotes an upward movement, not all bullish
days are the same. You can learn a lot from the subtle differences in bullish
candlesticks to improve your timin g. In some cases, a single candlestick provides
you with the most important indication about the current trend or its coming
exhaustion and reversal. As a general rule, )'ou reI), on a series of patterns to time
buy and sell decisions; some exce p tions apply when ynl! use candlesticks.

v" Key Point

Although candlesticks tell the most when they are part 0/ a trend, some single sticks tell
a lot. too. The long white candlestick is the most bullish of all possible formations.

m Marubozu
A long candlestick, with varying lengths 01 upper and lower shadows. The word in
Japanese means · with little hair."

The long white candlestick is the most bullish kind possible. The combined
long body and smal! uppe r and lowe r shadows tel! you the bulls were in control
through the session . A few subtle variations of the bullish long candlestick are
found in the mamboZII. This is ;1 long candlestick with varying amounts of
shadow (also called the "wick" or "'tail") above, below, or on both sides. In
o Single-Stick Signs 31

Japanese, the word mamboZIl means "bald" or "with little hair." There are four
vari:ltions:
I. Mambow witb small IIp/Jer and lower shadows.
\'('hen a long whi te candle appears with some upper and lower shadow and
the price docs not rise above the uppe r shadow of that long candIc, two
assumptions can be applied . First, the long white candle is dearly bullish
and probably signals a coming uptrend in price. Second, as long as the
price in subsequent dars remains above the lowest point of the lower
shadow, it represents a support level. Support is the lowest price the stock
is expecte{1 to trade. (In wmparison, resistance is the highest price likely to
be traded, and the space between support and resistance is the current
trading range.)
2. Mambozu witb I/O upper or lower shadows.
When there is no shadow on either end of this candle, it is the most bullish
of all. T his tdls YOll the day's price opened exactly at the bottom and
dosed exact ly at the top, with no additional range in between. When YOIl
see this, it indicates that a strong uptrend has started. Candlestick analysts
are likely to use this strong indicator (along with the trend pattern and
other technical indicators) as confirmation of the entry signal.
3. Mambozu with IIpper shadow ollly.
Also called an opening bullish mamboZlf, this one has an upper shadow.
Referring back to the first type with shadows on both sides, you can use
the upper shadow w check subsequent trading; whtn prices of the next
few <lays remain at or below the shadow's highest point, it is one of the
two bullish signs. T he sewnd is the bottom of the candle, which has no
shadow but still serves as the support level. As long as price does not fall
below this level for the next ftw days, all signs point w an uptrend .
4. Mambow with lower shadow ollly.
The last type is called a closing bullish mambOZIl. The same rules for
resistance and support apply, although in this instance (because the price
did fall below the opening price) the potential support level is lowered for
the following sessions.
Figure 2-2 shows a 90-day chart for Coca-Cola (KO), in which three of the
four mambo'lu signs are found . Th~ fi rst is sign four, with a luwer shaduw only.
The second and third are both sign one, the long body wi th small upper and
lower shadows. And the fourth is sign rhree, with only an upptr shadow. The
less frequent type two (no upper or lower shadow) is not found on this chart.
32 Trading with Candlnti cki

11:0 (eoc., Cola Co_l N'fSE

2 ,-/lug.2OOQ Op 411.00 til 4Q.IlEI Lo 4g . 2~ C\ 4Q,Q1
KO (O~jly)

, \
\

Figure 2·2 Marubozu signs

Note that the consistency of the marubozu is not a guaran tee. In this
example, not every occurrence o f the candlestick is followed by a strong
uptrend. [n fact, the confirmatio n is all-important. In the first number one sign
(the sewnd maruoozu on the chart), the indicated bullish movement is fullowed
immediately with a day opening high and moving downward. This occurs agoin
in three more nading periods, setting up a downtrend and moving bdow the
support level initially indicated by the marubozu. This was a good example of a
false signal.

~e Mistake Pattern IIIIIII

A second important formation is called the doji. The word in Japanese means
"'mistake. ~ It is a can{llestick fu r d:&rs that upe n and dose at the same price level,
so that there is no body, just a horiwntalline. A doji often appears at the point
where the trend is aoout to turn in the opposite direction. It is also the extreme
version of a -narrow-range day~ or (NRD), used in swing trading as a strong
signal that price is about to turn and move in the reverse directiun.
• Sing le-Stick Signs 33

W Doji
A candlestick sign developed when the day's opening and closing prices are identical
or very close; the real body is a horizontal line rather than a box.

'/ Key Point

The doii is the most extreme narrow-range day because opening ;md closing prices are
identical or close to identical, When a lower shadow is prominent (making it a dragonfly
doji), it is an exceptionally strong bullish signal.

One o f the most important bullish candlesticks is the dragonfly doli. This is
a pattern in which opening and dosing price are identical, bur a lower shadow
also forms. [n other words, price fell below the open but closed at the same price
as the open in spite of the day's decline below that lt:vel. [n this formation, the
bears dominate through the early part of the day, but before the close, the bulls
take over and rdurn price to its initial level. So the longt:r the [ower shadow of
the dragonfly doli, the stronger the bullish indicator.

III Dragonfly Doji

A type of dojiwith a lower shadow; the longer the shadow, the greater the bullish
indication.

The [ower extension of the shadow forms a short~ter m support level that can
be IIsed to check coming trading sessions and to identify and time your entry.
But this assumnl support [evel can also al..1: as a cautionary signal that the
dragonfly doli represents a fal se bullish indicator. If the following trading levels
[Tend below the extension of the doli's lower shadow, it means tht: support is
not holding, and that prices are likely to fall lower.
You will not alwa ys find the dragunfly duli in a perfectly flat narrow-range
day. It is more likely to find one that isc1ose, with a small trading range and even
a very small upper shadow. This is demomtrated in Figure 2-3 wht:re the
quarterly chart for Exxon- Mobil (XOM) reported a dragonfly doli followed by
a very strung uptrend. Note that tht: established support level remained in effect,
showing this to be a true example of the dragonfly.
Trad ing wilh Can dlUlic klO

XO M (Exxoo MotII Corp) ~ YSE .'rockC hlrt~com

21· .... V·2QO!;I 0", MI.4iS If! 7000 l.o eg 21 C1M1.Q2 VoI 2tl 2 N C~. \ . 3J(. I.Q4'1i) ..
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Chart courtesy ofSlockCharts.com

Figure 2·3 Dragonfly doji

The dragonfly can jmt as easily fail, establishing a false indicator. In Figure
2-4, the quarterly chart for JCPenncy UCP) shows how this occurs. A dragonfly
appeared, but the following days' trading immediately fell below the implied
support level.

JCP (JC Penney Co. roe.) N'fSE •• tod£ .... rt'.com

l l·AuQ:2QO!;I Op 30 1.01 Hi 3 1.47
JCP (O . lIy)

C han cou ncsy OfSlockChans.com

Figure 2-4 Dragnnfly doji failure

e Sing le-Sl ick Signs 3S

This example mar also be viewed as nor a failed dragonfly doii, bur its
opposite, the gravestone doji. JUSt as the dragonflr is a bull signal, when the real
bodr appears at the bottom of the stick, it is a bear signal. The ideal gravestone
shows up at the very top of a bull trend; in this example, the preceding series of
sessions does nut conform to this criterion, but the duji still works as either a
failed dragonfly o r a gra\'estone.

m Gravestone Doji
A type of doji with an upper shadow; the longer the shadow, the greater the bearish
indication.

There are more kinds of duji signs, each worth analysis as part of rour
candlestick charting program. The opening and closing prices are identical or
very close in order fur the doii to form; ther do not have to be exactly identical,
so a doji is any candlestick with even a thin line, representi ng little or no gap
berween opening and dosing prices.

W Long-Legged Doji
A doji sign with excepllonally large upper and lower shadows, indica ling a coming
reversal in the currenllrend.

The long-legged doji has unusually long upper and lower shadows. This
often appears at the end of a current trend and signals the beginning of a
reversal. (Reversals are examined in g reater detail in Chapter 5, -Reversal
Pattern Analysis.") The long-legged doji is interesting because, although the
period's opening and closing prices are the same (or very close), the trading
range moved fJr above and below that level during the sessiun. In the dragunflr,
the bears took prices down but the bulls prevailed. In the long-legged variety,
both bulls and bears had their turn . The bears took the price down and the bulls
brought it back up, and the bulls ran the price higher and then the bears brought
it back down. This action can occur in either sequence and even gu back and
forth many times during a single trading day.
The long-legged doji is also a symptom of an exceptionally volatile day, with
a lot of back and forth in the price and , during the session, without any clear
domination br either side. This is a bullish pattern when previous trading has
been on a downtrend. The day's struggle berween bulls and bears could be a sign
that an uptrend is going to ensue. This applies especially when the pattern has
established a <Iowlltrend of three sessions or more. (Of course, the opposite
J6 Trading with Ca ndl esticks

applies equally afte r three uptrend sessions and may signal the start of a
downtrend.)
The signal is qualified, of course, as all signals are. Any signal is only as good
as the degree to which it confirms other signs. This is as nue of the long-legged
doji as for any other formation. T he long-legged doii signals a change in trend
when subsequent price acrion remains above support (after the existing
downtrend) or below resistance (after the existing uptrend). However, when a
long-legged doji is followed by price hlling below support (or above resistance),
it is probabl y a false reverse signal. A false signal is followed by a continuation
of the existing trend .

"Key Point
Confirmation of the doji exists when following prices remain about resistance or below
support, depending on Ihe direction. When this does nol occu~ Ihe doji has 10 be viewed
as a false signal.

Figure 2-5 gives an interesting example of how difficult single candlesticks

can be to read. This 90-day Wal-Mart (WMT) chart contains three long-legged
doti days. The first and third are true, but the second one is false. The first is a
two-d ay long-legged doti (wi th th e second one containing a small rea! body); it
tells you a reversal is about to occur, and th is is followed by a strong downtrend.
The second d ay sets up a high resistance level, and the subsequent downtrend
remains below that level.

Chan courtesy orSlOckCharts.com

Figure 2-5 Long-legged dojl

• Single-Sti ck Signs 37

In the second o f three examples, the long-legged doji is placed at the bottom
of the downtrend, but the implied support level is quickly viola ted. Although an
uptrend does follow, this particular doji docs not offer a reliable reversal signal.
The third long-Itgged doji is tht snongtst of all, and it met:ts all of tht
criteria. It takes place at the bottom o f a downtrend, sets up a support level, and
is immediatelr fulluwed by a strong uptrend with prices ntvtr falling below
support.
T he t ntry signal can also work as an txit signal. If you art watching a stock
looking for the entry point, the long-legged doji (given the quali fications about
false signals) can servt as a confirming tnny point. By tht same argument, if you
arc already in a position, the long-legged doji can work as a warning to dose out
the position . If you are long in stock and enjoying a sn ong uptrend, the lung-
legged doji could be the red flag telling you to sell. If you aTe short and profiting
frum a duwntrt:nd, the So.1me pattern could signal you that it is time to cover tht
position and get out. In either case, the long-legged doji should not be ignored.
The doji comes in many additional reversal va rieties. (Ste Chapter 5 fur
more examples.) As a general rule, when the hori1.ontal line appears on the
upper half of the shaduw txtensiun, it is a bullish sign (the upening prict held
and dosed even though the bears took the price lowe r during the day). And if
the vertical line is found in the lower half, it is usually bearish :lI1d for the samt
reasons; even though the bulls took price above the opening and dosing line, the
btars were ab!t: to bring it back down.

, and H
Three more revealing single-stick candles are the spinl11ng top, hanging man,
and hamme r. A spinning top is represented by a fairly small real bo<iy (a narrow
trading range) along with both upper and lower shadows. To be a true spinning
top. the candle should have two attributes present. First, the real body should
he found approximately mid way in the full range, and the shadows should he at
least as long as the real body.
Figure 2-6 shows how the spinning top acts as a reversal signal. [n the case
of Coogle (COOC), four spinning tops were identified, two each at the top and
at the bottom of treods. These arc the most effective forms of narrow-range days
because they represent a trading range in which both buyers and sellers had the
chance to move price, without success.
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The Project Gutenberg eBook of Korea
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Original publication: New York: Charles Scribner's sons, 1904

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at https://www.pgdp.net (This file was produced from
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*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK KOREA ***

KOREA

TABLET IN SEOUL
 KOREA

BY
ANGUS HAMILTON

WITH A NEWLY PREPARED MAP

AND NUMEROUS ILLUSTRATIONS

NEW YORK
CHARLES SCRIBNER’S SONS
153-157 FIFTH AVENUE
1904

All rights reserved

TO MY MOTHER
 CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION
The Position of Russia in Manchuria—Comparative
Estimate of Naval and Military Resources of
Russia, Japan, and Korea Pp. xvii-xlii
CHAPTER I
Off the coast—Lack of survey intelligence—Island
flora—Forgotten voyagers—Superstitions and
beliefs—Outline of history Pp. 1-12
CHAPTER II
Physical peculiarities—Direction of advancement—
Indications of reform and prosperity—Chemulpo
—Population—Settlement—Trade Pp. 13-23
CHAPTER III
Move to the capital—A city of peace—Results of
foreign influence—In the beginning—Education—
Shops—Costume—Origin—Posts and telegraphs
—Methods of cleanliness Pp. 24-42
CHAPTER IV
The heart of the capital—Domestic economy—
Female slavery—Standards of morality—A dress
rehearsal Pp. 43-58
CHAPTER V
The Court of Korea—The Emperor and his Chancellor
—The Empress and some Palace factions Pp. 59-69
 CHAPTER VI
The passing of the Emperor—An Imperial pageant Pp. 70-80
CHAPTER VII
Sketch of Mr. McLeavy Brown—The Question of the
Customs—The suggested Loan Pp. 81-93
CHAPTER VIII
Foreign action in Korea—Exhausted Exchequer—
Taxes—Budgets—Debased currency—The Dai
Ichi Ginko—Dishonest officials Pp. 94-107
CHAPTER IX
Education—Arts and graces—Penal code—Marriage
and divorce—The rights of concubines—Position
of children—Government Pp. 108-116
CHAPTER X
Farmers—Farming and farm animals—Domestic
industries—Products—Quality and character of
food-stuffs Pp. 117-127
CHAPTER XI
Japan in Korea—Historical associations—In Old
Fusan—Political and economic interests—Abuse
of paramountcy Pp. 128-137
CHAPTER XII
The commercial prospects of Korea—Openings to
trade—Requirements of markets—Lack of British
enterprise Pp. 138-147
CHAPTER XIII
British, American, Japanese, French, German, and Pp. 148-169
Belgian interests—Railways and mining fictions—
 Tabled counterfeited Imports
CHAPTER XIV
Some account of the treaty ports; Won-san, Fusan,
Mok-po—Character of export and import trade—
Local industries Pp. 170-181
CHAPTER XV
Treaty ports (continued)—Wi-ju—Syön-chyön-po—
Chin-am-po—Pyöng-yang—Kun-san—Syöng-
chin Pp. 182-191
CHAPTER XVI
Russian interests—Russia and Japan—Ma-san-po—
Ching-kai-wan—Yong-an-po Pp. 192-206
CHAPTER XVII
By the wayside—A journey inland to Tong-ko-kai—
Inland beauties Pp. 207-215
CHAPTER XVIII
The German mines—Mineralogy and methods of
mining—A bear hunt—With gun and rifle Pp. 216-225
CHAPTER XIX
The monks and monasteries of the Diamond
Mountains—The Temple of Eternal Rest—The
Temple of the Tree of Buddha—Buddhism Pp. 226-240
CHAPTER XX
The abomination of desolation—Across Korea—The
east coast—Fishing and filth Pp. 241-252
CHAPTER XXI
Drought—Starvation—Inland disturbances—Rainfall
and disease Pp. 253-260
 CHAPTER XXII
The missionary question—Ethics of Christianity—Cant
and commerce—The necessity for restraint Pp. 261-269
CHAPTER XXIII
Inland journeying—Ponies, servants, interpreters,
food and accommodation—What to take and how
to take it—Up the Han River, frolic and leisure Pp. 270-283
CHAPTER XXIV
Kang-wha, brief history of the island—A monastic
retreat, an ideal rest—Nocturnal visitors—
Midnight masses—Return to the capital—
Preparations for a great journey—Riots and
confusion Pp. 284-300
APPENDIX I
Schedule of train service P. 301
APPENDIX II
Return of all shipping entered at the open ports of
Korea during the year 1902 Pp. 302-304
APPENDIX III
Return of principal articles of export to foreign
countries from the open ports of Korea during the
years 1901-1902 P. 305
APPENDIX IV
Return of principal articles of imports to foreign
countries during the years 1901-1902 P. 306
APPENDIX V
Coast trade between treaty-ports in native produce
(net) P. 307
 APPENDIX VI
Customs revenue P. 307
APPENDIX VII
Gold export to foreign countries P. 308
APPENDIX VIII
Table of minerals P. 309
 ILLUSTRATIONS
Ceiling, Imperial Palace, Seoul Cover
Tablet in Seoul Frontispiece
PAGE
Devil Post outside Seoul 1
Guardian of a grave 9
Independence Arch 11
Pagoda at Seoul 12
A moment of leisure 13
At the Wells 17
Chemulpo 21
Pavilion on the wall of the Capital 23
Hen-seller 24
Not one whit Europeanised 33
A side alley 35
Native dress 37
They wear the Chang-ot 38
A study in hats 39
Means of locomotion 42
A Sang-no 43
White-coated, white-socked population 45
She may visit her friends 47
A middle-class family 49
In winter costume 51
A palace concubine 53
Dancing women of the Court 55
Boys 58
His Imperial Highness, Prince Yi-Cha-Sum 59
His Imperial Majesty the Emperor 60
The Hall of Audience, Seoul 64
Their Imperial Highnesses the Crown Prince and 67
Princess
A minor Royalty 69
Within the Palace grounds, Seoul 72
Imperial Throne, Seoul 74
Imperial Tablet-House, Seoul 77
An Imperial pavilion, Seoul 79
Mr. J. McLeavy Brown, C.M.G., LL.D. 82
British Legation, Seoul 88
The Imperial Library, Seoul 94
A Seoul gate 107
Justice is not tempered with mercy 113
Children of the lower class 115
The Korean and his bull 119
A spade furnished with ropes 121
Pounding grain 122
Carrying produce to market 123
Japanese Cavalry 128
The Guard of the Japanese Legation, Seoul 131
H.M.S. Astrea 137
Brick laying extraordinary 145
The Consulting-room of Miss Cooke 155
A railway siding 169
In New Fusan 177
Palace Gateway 180
Chemulpo 185
On the Yalu River 197
Chinese Encampment 203
Beyond the Capital 208
Woodland Glades 209
Country Carts 213
A pitched battle 215
A summer pleasaunce 224
The Abbot of Chang An Sa 227
The Abbot of Yu Chom Sa 233
Yu Chom Sa 237
An Altar-piece 239
Shin Ki Sa 243
The Abbot and Monks of Chang An Sa 245
A Fair Magician 251
Without the walls of Seoul 253
The Temple of Heaven, Seoul 255
An Imperial summer house, erected to mark the spot
where the corpse of the late Queen was burned
by the Japanese 260
A bridge scene in Seoul 261
The streets are magnificent 268
Beyond the Amur 281
On the Han River 282
Washing clothes in a drain 284
A day of festival 291
Russian post on the Korean Frontier 297
 INTRODUCTION
Nothing is more natural than the circumstance that war should be
the outcome of the existing crisis; yet, equally, nothing is less certain.
If the area of hostilities were not confined to the Far East, and the
Power confronting Japan were any other than Russia, the outbreak
of war might be predicted positively. But with Russia, consideration
of the strategic qualities of her position in Manchuria must exercise a
paramount influence upon her movements. To those who are not
close students of military history, as well as to those who do not
possess an extensive knowledge of the situation, the position in
which Russia is placed equally affords the keenest interest. Certainly
in the annals of military history, excluding the march of Napoleon
upon Moscow, there is no war which may be said to have developed
a parallel to the task which besets Russia in Manchuria and Korea.
Her position at sea, moreover, is no better than that which she holds
on land. Upon land, a single line of railway traversing the heart of an
enemy’s country terminates at Port Arthur. At sea, Vladivostock is
cut off by reason of its position, while it is inaccessible on account of
its climate. These points, Port Arthur and Vladivostock, define the
extremities of the strategic position which Russia holds in Manchuria.
Excluding Vladivostock at this moment from any especial
consideration, Port Arthur is left for the opening moves of this
campaign. Therefore, Port Arthur, with a single line of
communications in its rear, becomes the pivot of the operations.
The aspect of Port Arthur from the sea is uninviting. Rugged hills,
offshoots from the range of mountains which divides the Liao-tung
peninsula, cluster round the bay, and encroaching upon the
foreshore and bearing neither trees nor vegetation, impart to the
surroundings a desolate and even wild appearance. Within the
headlands of the harbour, conforming with the indentations of the
coast, there are several bays shallow and unprofitable, but which in
time may become an important adjunct to the small area of deep
water which the harbour now possesses. Dredging operations have
been undertaken, but there is so much to be done that many years
must pass before Port Arthur receives any material addition to its
very restricted accommodation. The mud, brought down by the
streams which empty into the harbour, has already affected the
deep-water area, and since the harbour was constructed these
deposits have encroached very considerably upon the depth off
shore. At low water steamers, which lie up within sixty feet of the
wharf, rest upon mud in little more than a fathom of water, and at the
same time the space is so small that it is impossible for a dozen
vessels to anchor in the harbour with any comfort. Steamers, if any
larger in size than the small coasting-boats which call at Port Arthur
from China and Japan must anchor off the entrance, unloading and
re-charging from junks or tenders. In relation to the requirements of
the squadron Port Arthur is not nearly large enough. When cruisers
are taking in stores battleships remain outside, an arrangement
which is manifestly inconvenient in a period of emergency. It was for
this reason that the authorities constructed at Dalny—a few miles
from the fortress and within Pa-tien-wan Bay—a new town, together
with commercial docks and wharves, in order that Port Arthur might
be devoted more particularly to the needs of the navy.
Port Arthur is happy in the possession of all those objects which,
to a naval base, are component parts of its success. The dry dock,
somewhat weak and unsubstantial, is 385 feet in length, 34 feet in
depth, and 80 feet broad, while the naval basin is equal in surface
space to the total available steamer anchorage in the harbour
proper. When the dredging works in the harbour bays have been
completed it is hoped that a mean depth of four fathoms will have
been obtained. This systematic deepening of the harbour will give to
the fleet a surface anchorage considerably in excess of one square
mile, but until the work has been executed the value of Port Arthur
as a satisfactory naval base is infinitely less than the prestige which
it enjoys as an impregnable position.
Port Arthur possesses a small parade-ground, rifle-range, and
artillery practice-ground, torpedo-station and training reservation,
which will be enlarged when the bays are opened out. There is a
flash-light station and various schools of instruction—torpedo,
gunnery, telegraphy—while the arsenals and workshops which are
built around the naval basin and within the navy yards are very
thoroughly equipped. These effects, however, were mainly taken
over by Russia when she seized Port Arthur; their existence at the
present moment tends to show how impossible it is to under-
estimate the advantages which Russia derives from the possession
of this port, and how far-reaching are the consequences of the
monstrous blunder which Lord Salisbury committed when he
acquiesced in its usurpation.
Apart from the defences Russia, hitherto, has not added much to
Port Arthur; for the main part the troops have been quartered in the
old Chinese houses or in the former barracks of the Chinese troops,
affairs having been somewhat neglected in view of the prior claim
which the defences held. Now, however, fine barracks are in course
of construction, and, if there is no war, it is anticipated that ample
accommodation will be ready soon upon the shores of some of the
bays and on the hills. The defences are indeed magnificent. Very few
of the forts, which were in existence during the time of the Chinese,
remain. Since the Russian Government entered upon possession
the work of extending the perimeter of the defences, as well as
strengthening the fortifications, has been a continuous labour. It is
quite clear that the authorities are determined upon no half-
measures. They have gained Port Arthur, and they propose to keep
it. Upon the cliffs, rising immediately from the right of the harbour
entrance, there is a most powerful position, formed, I believe, of a
battery of six 21-inch Krupp guns, which was further supported by a
fort placed a few feet above the harbour, and sweeping its immediate
front, containing eight 10-inch Krupps. At the corresponding
elevations upon the opposite headland there were two similar forts
with identical batteries, while the mine fields within the harbour are
controlled from these two lower positions. Following the hills to the
south and north there are other forts; one in particular, of great size,
is placed upon the extreme crest of the range, and, towering above
all else, sweeps the sea and approaches to the harbour for great
distances. It is impossible to detect the character of these guns, but
from their position, and the extent of the fort and the nature of the
part which they are intended to fill, it is improbable that they can be
less than 27-ton guns, discharging shells of about 500 lb. The
interior line of forts is no less formidable, and it must seem that Port
Arthur can never be reduced by bombardment alone, while any force
attacking by land would be severely handled by the positions from
which the Russians propose to defend their flanks and the neck. At
the present, however, there is a paucity of field-guns among the
troops in garrison, in addition to which many of the more recently
constructed forts lack artillery; while the opinion may be hazarded
that the entire position has been so over-fortified as to become a
source of eventual weakness in the ultimate disposition of the
Russian force.
Of course a fight for the command of the sea must precede any
land operations. Japan is within fifteen hours steam of Fusan,
already a Japanese garrison-town, and of Ma-san-po, the port to
which Russia and Japan make equal claim. The strait separating
Japan from Korea is 200 miles broad, while Russia’s nearest base at
Port Arthur is 900 miles away on one hand and Vladivostock is 1200
miles away on the other. It follows therefore, that in Korea, and not in
Manchuria, the troops of the Japanese army would be landed. Once
established in Korea, Japan would be able to dispute the supremacy
of the sea on equal terms. In this respect the possession by the
Japanese of numerous torpedo craft confers a distinct advantage
upon them, since it will be within their power to utilise their services if
the Russian fleet were to attempt to check the movement. The
absence of any facilities for repairing damages makes it certain that
so far as possible the Russian fleet will evade any serious
engagement. It would be difficult to improve upon the position of
Japan in this respect. At Yokosuka, from which place a large number
of cruisers have been launched, there is a very extensive building-
yard, and Japan also possesses suitable docks for large ships at
Kure and Nagasaki. In all she has at her immediate disposal some
half a dozen docks, 400 ft. in length or more, and a very skilful army
of working mechanics and workmen in general. Port Arthur must be
regarded for practical purposes the naval base of Russia in the Far
East in the event of a cold-weather campaign.
 Vladivostock is too far removed from the range of probable utility.
At this port, however, Russia has constructed one large dry dock,
one floating dock 301 ft. long, and a second dry dock has been laid
down. Against these two solitary and isolated centres, Japan
possesses naval bases, arsenals and docks at the following points
on her coast.

Yokosuka Arsenal, slip and dry dock.

Kure Arsenal, slip, dry dock, armour-plate works.
Sassebo Arsenal.
Maitsura New dockyard.
Nagasaki Three docks.
Takeshiki Coaling-station, naval base.
Ominato Base for small craft.
Kobe Torpedo repairing yard.
Matsmai Refitting station.

The squadrons which Japan and Russia will be able to employ in

this war are very formidable, and during the past few months each
Power has made strenuous efforts to increase the strength of its
fleet.
In January 1903 the aggregate tonnage of the Russian Pacific
Squadron stood at some 87,000 tons, the fleet including the
battleships Peresviet, Petropavlovsk, Poltava, Sevastopol, and the
cruisers Rossia, Gromoboi, and Rurik, with other smaller vessels.
In March the tonnage went up to 93,000 tons, thanks to the arrival
of the cruiser Askold from the Baltic.
In May the cruisers Diana, Pallada, Novik, and the battleship
Retvizan joined.
In June the cruisers Bogatyr and Boyarin reached the scene.
In July the battleship Probleda arrived.
In November the battleship Tzarevitch and the cruiser Bayan
further added to Russia’s strength.
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