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Weekly Market Commentary 02-08-12

In one week, President Obama is due to submit his budget. The 2013 budget is already going to have the biggest impact since the end of WWII, even if no action is taken in Washington.

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30 views2 pages

Weekly Market Commentary 02-08-12

In one week, President Obama is due to submit his budget. The 2013 budget is already going to have the biggest impact since the end of WWII, even if no action is taken in Washington.

Uploaded by

monarchadvisorygroup
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© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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LP L FINANCIAL R E S E AR C H

Weekly Market Commentary


February 6, 2012

The Budget Bombshell


Jeffrey Kleintop, CFA
Chief Market Strategist LPL Financial

Highlights
In one week, President Obama is due to submit his budget. The 2013 budget is already going to have the biggest impact since the end of WWII, even if no action is taken in Washington. The fiscal headwind under current policy totals over $500 billion, or 3.5% of GDP. The United States has never experienced a deficit cut by more than 2% of GDP that did not end in a sharp decline in GDP. The risk that a budget deal to mitigate this potential impact does not happen should keep markets from moving steadily higher in 2012, as they have done year-to-date, without a reality check.

In one week, President Obama is due to submit his 2013 budget, which covers the fiscal year beginning on October 1, 2012. The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 requires the President to submit a budget request to Congress on the first Monday in February, but the Administration has scheduled the release instead for one week later on February 13. In addition, Congress must pass a budget resolution by April 15 of every year. However, the President missed the deadline last year and while the House passed a budget resolution last year, the Senate did not. This year is likely to be no different, with no budget being passed. But this does not mean the 2013 budget does not have potentially market moving consequences. The 2013 budget is already going to have the biggest impact of any budget in decades even if no action is taken in Washington. The fiscal headwind comprised of both tax increases and spending cuts under current policy totals over $500 billion, or 3.5% of GDP . 2013 Fiscal Headwinds (in $ billions)
Expiration of Bush tax cuts for middle income earners Expiration of Bush tax cuts for high earners Payroll tax cut for workers Debt ceiling annual spending sequester for defense Debt ceiling annual spending sequester for non-defense Alternative minimum tax annual patch Medicare tax of 3.8% on investment income from 2009 Obama health care plan Total Total as % of estimated 2013 GDP 205 50 112 55 55 38 21 536 3.5

Source: LPL Financial, Congressional Budget Office, Office of Management and Budget 02/06/12

The 2013 budget changes, primarily consisting of tax increases, are already in the law and would need to be changed to mitigate or restructure them to be less of an economic drag; if not a return to recession may be looming in 2013. While the United States economy is not likely to see the big declines in government spending that came after WWI and WWII, the United States has never experienced a deficit cut by more than 2% of GDP that did not end in a sharp decline in GDP The last time the budget deficit was cut by a . similar amount to the 3.5% on tap for 2013, it was 1969. In 1969, the deficit narrowed by 3.1% during the year, and GDP ended up shrinking -1.9% in the

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W E E KLY MARKE T CO MME N TAR Y

Budget Change on Tap for 2013 Largest Since End of WWII


Change in Federal Budget Deficit as Percent of GDP Projected 2013 Change in Federal Budget Deficit as Percent of GDP

fourth quarter (and by -0.6% in the following quarter) as the U.S. entered a recession. Despite the recession, the efforts to narrow the deficit in 1969 had one pleasant outcome: they balanced the budget. Unfortunately, the budget changes on tap for 2013 will still leave the federal budget far from balanced. The further apart the parties in Washington appear to be, even on extending the unemployment and payroll tax cuts that expire this month, may make investors increasingly nervous. This may result in the return of market volatility in February after stocks got off to a strong start to the year. While the Presidents budget is unlikely to get much attention in Congress, the markets may begin to price in a major budget deal taking place in early 2013 for several reasons:

17.5 14.0 10.5 7.0 3.5 0.0 -3.5 -7.0 -10.5 -14.0 -17.5 1930

Percent (%)

1950

1970

1990

2010

the economic impact of the many scheduled tax increases and spending cuts, the debt ceiling will be hit again in early 2013 and require legislative action to approve an increase, the rating agencies have warned that they will be watching in 2013 for the United States to take actions to return to a path of fiscal sustainability, and the President and a newly elected Congress will have maximum political capital to make it happen in early 2013.

Source: LPL Financial, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Treasury 02/06/12

But the risk that a budget deal does not eventually happen should keep markets from moving steadily higher in 2012, as they have done year-todate, without a reality check. With Congress now back in session and the Presidents budget due on February 13, just a week away, the markets may begin to refocus on the risks to the economy posed by inaction in Washington leading to a return of volatility.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance reference is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. The Standard & Poors 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a countrys borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all of private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial. The LPL Financial family of affiliated companies includes LPL Financial and UVEST Financial Services Group, Inc., each of which is a member of FINRA/SIPC. To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.
Not FDIC or NCUA/NCUSIF Insured | No Bank or Credit Union Guarantee | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit

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