EDUCATIONAL ASSESSMENT IN A

CHANGING WORLD

This timely book takes stock of the wide range of developments in society,
education and assessment and offers conclusions and strategies that are
necessary for the future of educational assessment.
Drawing on examples from the UK, Europe and USA, the book will
dissect cultural, political, psychological and ideological ideas on society,
education and assessment and foreground pressing issues relating to
artificial intelligence, social justice and climate change. Acknowledging its
predominantly Western perspective and providing context on the evolution
of educational assessment, the book will bridge the gap between theory and
practice to progress debate and discourse on creating a culture of assessment
fit for the future and rethinking strategies for the path ahead.
Ultimately, the book will provide insights and key takeaways for the
field of educational assessment along with an evidence-based agenda that
will be relevant for education professionals, the assessment industry and
policymakers interested in higher education, international and comparative
education and testing.

Isabel Nisbet has held senior roles in the regulation of qualifications and
assessment in the UK.

Stuart Shaw is Honorary Professor of University College London in the

Institute of Education – Curriculum, Pedagogy & Assessment, UK.
EDUCATIONAL
ASSESSMENT IN A
CHANGING WORLD
Lessons Learned and the Path Ahead

Isabel Nisbet and Stuart Shaw

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DOI: 10.4324/9781003346166

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CONTENTS

About the authors vi

Acknowledgements viii
Authors’ preface ix
Foreword xi

1 Introduction 1

2 Developments in education and assessment 17

3 New priorities and an unexpected shock 58

4 Changes to thinking about society 96

5 Changes to thinking about education and assessment 122

6 The moral compass 170

7 Lessons learned and the path ahead 191

Afterword 208
Index 210
ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Isabel Nisbet’s academic training was in philosophy, with her tutors includ-
ing R.S. Downie in Glasgow and R.M. Hare in Oxford. Her professional
career has been in government and regulation in the UK, including posts in
government departments in Scotland and England and senior roles in the
regulation of medicine and postgraduate medical education. These led to a
Director role in the Qualifications and Curriculum Authority in England.
Isabel was the founding CEO of Ofqual, the statutory regulator of quali-
fications and assessments in England. From 2011 to 2014, she worked for
Cambridge Assessment in South East Asia, based in Singapore. Isabel has
served on the Board of Qualifications Wales and has been governor of four
universities in England. She is currently Vice-Chair of the Board of Gover-
nors of the University of Bedfordshire. In 2021, Isabel was appointed to a
panel carrying out an Independent Review of Education in Northern Ireland,
and their report was published in December 2023. She is a member of the
National Statistician’s Data Ethics Group, and she contributes regularly to
national and international conferences and seminars.

Stuart Shaw is Honorary Professor of University College London in the

Institute of Education – Curriculum, Pedagogy & Assessment. Stuart has
worked for international awarding organisations for over twenty years and
is particularly interested in demonstrating how educational, psychological
and vocational tests seek to meet the demands of validity, reliability and fair-
ness. He left Cambridge Assessment (now Cambridge University Press & As-
sessment) – where he was Head of International Research, in January 2001
to pursue work as an educational assessment consultant. Stuart has a wide
range of publications in English second language assessment and educational/
 About the authors vii

psychological research journals (including a number of books). Stuart is Chair

of the Board of Trustees of the Chartered Institute of Educational Assessors
(CIEA). He is also a Fellow of the CIEA. He is a Fellow of the Association for
Educational Assessment in Europe (AEA-Europe), an elected member of the
Council of AEA-Europe, and is Chair of its Scientific Programme Committee.
Stuart is also an elected member of the Board of Trustees of the International
Association for Educational Assessment (IAEA) and Chair of its Commu-
nications Committee. He is also the Chair of the e-Assessment Association
“Research” awards.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

We are very grateful to the following people for comments on draft chapters:

Eleanor Andressen
Ben Colburn
James Conroy
Catarina F. Correia
Martin Johnson
Nick Hillman
Paul Newton
Elisa de Padua
Mick Walker
Lesley Wiseman

The content of the book has benefited from the comments of participants
who attended the 2023 conferences of the Association of Educational As-
sessment, Europe, and the British Educational Research Association; and
events held by the Chartered Institute of Educational Assessors; the Institute
of Education, University College London; and Cambridge University Press &
Assessment.
AUTHORS’ PREFACE

This book has been prompted by our shared awareness of the need for the
rather specialised world of educational assessment to look outside its fa-
miliar spheres of reference to changes in the world and in education and
re-assess where it should go next. We came to this conclusion from different
backgrounds – one from detailed participation in research on educational
assessment in theory and practice; the other bringing an academic training in
philosophy to a professional career in policy and regulation covering educa-
tion and assessment in a wide range of contexts.
We had collaborated before, particularly on fairness in assessment (Nisbet &
Shaw, 2020), and contributed to conferences and seminars for assessment
researchers. During the Covid-19 pandemic, many of these events had to be
held remotely, and this gave us the opportunity to participate in discussions
in the USA, as well as in Europe and in the different constituent parts of the
UK. We were particularly struck by the contrast between the preoccupations
of conference delegates on the two sides of the Atlantic. Our US colleagues
used their coffee breaks and plenary discussions to talk animatedly about
difficult and controversial issues – notably race – which dominated their per-
ception of the context in which they had to work. Some of them were very
worried by the bitterness of the public debate around areas of their work and
about the use being made of the assessments that they had helped to produce.
In European events, there was certainly the feel of a community of practice
meeting each other and producing – and critiquing – high-quality detailed
work. There was an awareness of the national policy contexts in which they
practised, but not the same preoccupation with challenges from the world
beyond assessment.
x Authors’ preface

We came increasingly to the view that, as we approach the end of the first
quarter of the 21st century, it is time to stand back and survey educational
assessment in context. That context includes developments in society and
education, as well as developments in thinking about society and education.
We have attempted to cast our net widely and bring together source material
from different disciplines and very different subject matter. Synthesising such
a wide range of material can be uncomfortable for assessment researchers
used to detailed analytic work, but it reflects the intertwining of different
factors in the real world where assessment is situated.
The wide scope of the material that we have sought to include in our syn-
thesis has made this project very challenging for us. It also means that we
have had to be selective. Some readers may find that issues of particular inter-
est to them have not been covered. But we hope that the questions we have
asked and the approach we have taken will be relevant and helpful. We are
also limited in that almost all of the source material we have used has been
in the English language.
We hope that this book will be of interest not only to assessment research-
ers and academics but also to newcomers to work in educational assessment,
to policymakers and to workers in government and regulation affecting edu-
cational assessment. We also hope that students who are seeking to deepen
their understanding of assessment in context will use the many references
that we have provided to follow up topics of particular interest to them.
We have expressed our own views throughout the book, particularly in
the final chapter. We expect that some readers will disagree with us. Indeed,
we would be disappointed if that were not so. For us, the importance of this
exercise is to use its wide scope to raise important questions for assessment
as we move into the second quarter of the century. Twenty-five years later, it
will be time to take stock again.
Isabel Nisbet and Stuart Shaw
May 2024

Reference
Nisbet, I., & Shaw, S. D. (2020). Is assessment fair? SAGE Publications Ltd.
FOREWORD

History, it might be argued, is about considering both change and continuity

within the scope of human existence. Reflecting on who we are, how we live
and, in the case of this book, how we are educated, matters if we are to un-
derstand and learn from what has been and to consider what might be in the
future. Research and writing about educational assessment might seem, to a
casual bystander, to have little relevance to daily life once we have left formal
education. However, that is not the case. Assessment is crucial in terms of
understanding what we know, reflecting on experience and, perhaps most
importantly, applying these things to our lives.
The history of assessment demonstrates that very little actually changes in
terms of either policy or practice. We tend to privilege and trust certain types
of assessment, notably those resulting in a grade or mark from an examina-
tion result. Such forms of assessment are not bad or wrong, but they have
limitations that are often ignored. However, their use continues despite the
body of evidence emerging from research from the latter part of the 20th
century onwards, advocating new ways of assessing learning that are inclu-
sive, focused on learning and which drive student motivation in more ways
than simply chasing the highest grade. But the question remains: Is there an
appetite for any change, for other ways of thinking about assessing learning?
What this book does is to engage with key issues that are not, on first sight,
obviously linked to assessment and deftly interrogate how and why they
should matter to all of us in education. The authors admit to the somewhat
daunting challenge of such a task and, in doing so, provide a sound argument
for seeking more than technical “solutions” for how to manage the chal-
lenges in assessment. Their approach is not to ignore pragmatic resolutions
xii Foreword

but to use deep thinking, genuine reflection, and a range of examples to inter-
rogate the breadth and reach of assessment issues we currently face.
Assessment is a frequent feature in global news media, and this reflects a
sustained public interest where grades and other assessment outcomes claim
to characterise the success (or otherwise) of education systems. The Covid-19
pandemic revealed the limitations of national testing systems based on ancient
and embedded beliefs that require students to sit in examination halls for fi-
nite periods of time in order to “show their learning”. For example, in Eng-
land, Norway and the Netherlands, examinations were cancelled completely
during the height of the pandemic; in China, Hong Kong and Spain, national
tests were postponed; and in the USA, entire test systems were rewritten at
speed to create something that worked in a socially distanced world. Along-
side these cancellations were hasty enactments of assessments that relied on
incomplete sets of data and school-level reporting. What followed from this
was a global wringing of hands about whether national test results (and simi-
lar assessments) were fair or even accurate. This in turn revealed anger and
fear on the part of students who felt their very futures were in peril. The fall-
out from the pandemic is unknown in terms of its impact on education and
it will be perhaps decades before we have anything approximating a good
understanding of what has unfolded as a result of school closures, lost learn-
ing and, in the case of assessment, lost experience of test taking. But what
we have learned is that students are taught from a young age that assessment
outcomes, particularly examination results, really matter and this message
means that they become a part of a learner’s identity. In turn, teachers know
that assessment outcomes will reflect on their practice, both in the classroom
and as leaders of educational institutions. What this book ponders is how
it is time to consider the value of inculcating such beliefs in our education
systems. It is very rare to see philosophical considerations of the moral and
ethical implications of assessment and their inclusion here is to be welcomed.
For many of us in the assessment “world”, such writing may not make for
comfortable reading, but it is necessary reading. Well-being is now a common
part of public discourse, and here its links to education (and assessment) are
laid bare, in terms not simply of the mental stress resulting from testing but
of a global notion of well-being. This holistic view can be seen in terms of
creating sustainable societies that are able to understand and manage the hu-
man and artificial challenges unfolding in the 21st century; education has a
vital role to play if we wish to assure our future. There are no absolute solu-
tions to the issues presented in this book, but this is not the point because the
authors are not attempting to do this. Rather, they are shining a light on what
has happened and presenting some thoughts about what might be.
Assessment requires an open mind to afford continuous engagement in
reflective practice. It is this openness that allows us to spot the potential to
learn from experience and perhaps to improve the human condition. This is
 Foreword xiii

not easy as it challenges that very human wish to take the well-trodden path,
but we stop being curious and attempting to tackle the thorniest of problems
in education at our peril and, importantly, at the peril of those who follow us.
Many of the recent debates around education are highly polarised and critics
often take the easy route and present just two sides to each story. This book
presents ways we might move beyond a binary argument towards more nu-
anced ways of talking about education and assessment; let the debate begin.
Mary Richardson
Professor of Educational Assessment
IOE, Faculty of Education and Society,
University College London
1
INTRODUCTION

Some readers will remember the millennium. We certainly do. It prompted

much reflection and looking forward. The western world celebrated half a
century of comparative international peace and marvelled at the opportuni-
ties offered by worldwide travel and speedy communication. Participation in
education had increased in most countries of the world, and this was seen
as closely linked to economic prosperity and growth. There was an industry
of writing about “21st century skills”, with an emphasis on creative think-
ing, working together, and using the opportunities presented by technological
advance.
There was a short-term panic about risks to computers from the “millen-
nium bug” – the fear that computers that only registered the last two digits
for dates would either treat the year 2000 as 1900 or, worse still, shut down
altogether, with catastrophic consequences, not least for education. In the
event, that fear – which was very real at the time – failed to materialise.
But more lasting concerns remained – about inequality between and within
countries, about poverty and hunger, and about worrying signs of climate
change. However, many shared the largely optimistic spirit of the millennium
speech by the American President Bill Clinton:

Never before have we known as much about each other. Never before
have we depended so much on each other. Never before have we had such
an opportunity to move toward what the generations have prayed for,
peace on Earth and a better life for all. We must both imagine a brighter
future and dedicate ourselves to building it, and I ask you all here today to
reaffirm the clear understanding that we must do it together.1

DOI:10.4324/9781003346166-1
2 Introduction

There was also reflection on where matters stood in the world of educa-
tional assessment. As the 20th century began to draw to a close, Professor
Caroline Gipps wrote Beyond Testing: Towards a Theory of Educational
Assessment, in which she reflected on developments in assessment during
the 1990s. She examined technical issues about the effect of assessment
on curriculum and teaching, the relationship between performance as-
sessment and assessment by teachers, and she began the book with these
words:

This book is written as part of the attempt to reconceptualize assessment

in education in the 1990s. There has been over the last decade an explo-
sion of developments in assessment and a number of key actors have been
reconceptualising the issues. The aim of this book is to bring together
much of this work to discuss and synthesize it in an attempt to further
our understandings and practice in educational assessment: to develop the
theory of educational assessment.
(Gipps, 1994, p. 1)

In our book, written some thirty years later, we are seeking to take up the
baton offered by Gipps. We believe it is now time for a rethink about educa-
tional assessment, taking into account recent developments affecting assess-
ment practice and developments in thinking about education and assessment,
and looking forward towards the mid-21st century.
In this introductory chapter, we set out the approach taken by the book,
and we briefly describe the content of the subsequent chapters. In conclusion,
we offer a scene-setting account of some of the dominant themes in educa-
tion and educational assessment at this time. These themes will be explored
in greater depth throughout the book.

An introduction to the book

Our approach
The size of the challenge that we have taken up has required us to bring
together a wide range of sources and academic disciplines – including, in ad-
dition to education and assessment, psychology, public policy, information
technology, law, science and moral philosophy. Such synthesis is required,
we suggest, as the issues we discuss are essentially interdisciplinary (requir-
ing an integration of contributions from several disciplines),2 as is the real
world in which they are situated. However, it does have the drawback that,
by necessity, we have had to be selective in the examples we discuss. Readers
may have particular interests that are not covered. We hope that they will be
encouraged to explore these further themselves and apply some of the ques-
tions we have posed here.
 Introduction 3

Both authors are based in England, though they have worked elsewhere.
The book draws on examples from throughout the UK, but also from the
USA and Europe. Our adoption of an interdisciplinary approach may be of
particular interest in the USA, where academic thinking on assessment is now
much more influenced by other academic disciplines than it was previously.
The book also draws on publications by international organisations such as
the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and
the World Economic Forum (WEF). Almost all our source material is in the
English language.
In Chapters 2–6, we explore developments and changes to thinking about
education and assessment. Many of the examples we have cited merit much
longer and more detailed discussion than has been possible for a book of
this scope. Our purpose has been to rise above the details and draw lessons
about the implications for assessment. However, we have offered references
at the end of each of these chapters, which should enable readers to follow
up in more detail particular issues that interest them. That has resulted in
a contrast of styles between different parts of the book. Chapters 2 and 3
are grounded more in the literature, while Chapters 4, 5 and 6 emphasise
more theoretical issues, examining developments in thinking about society
and education and debating the issues that they raise.

Our use of terms

Definitions of concepts such as “education” and “assessment” could be dis-
cussed at length.3 However, at this point, we confine ourselves to saying what
we mean by those terms in this book. By “education” we refer to all processes
that lead to learning or the acquisition of knowledge, skills or understanding.
Our use of “processes” here may be seen as too narrow, but for our purposes
it is sufficient to point out that we are not confining our consideration to
formal education in schools or colleges (we are not using “education” as a
synonym for “schooling”).4 We return to some of these definitional issues in
Chapter 6.
We are using “assessment” to denote “a judgement based on evidence”,5
drawing on the Latin derivation from ad sidere (“sitting beside”). This al-
lows selection judgements and diagnostic processes and conclusions to be
included as forms of “assessment”. By “educational assessment” we mean all
such evidence-based judgements in educational contexts.6 “Assessment”, as
the term is used in this book, is not confined to “exams” or “tests” but does
not exclude either.

Structure of the book

Each of Chapters 2–6 describes and discusses developments and concludes
by posing and attempting to answer the question “What does this (the
4 Introduction

development discussed in the chapter) mean for assessment?” Emerging con-

clusions are brought together in the final chapter. The assessments discussed
in the book are largely educational assessments. However, many of the issues
discussed are also relevant to assessment for entry to – and advancement
in – employment and the professions, although we do not discuss these ap-
plications in depth.
Chapter 2 (“Developments in education and assessment”) offers an over-
view of important educational reviews and educational assessment initiatives
taking place around the turn of the 21st century. In the latter decades of the
20th century, many countries sought to articulate the educational needs of
the next generation, described by the US National Commission on Excel-
lence in Education as a “Learning Society” (NCEE, 1983). There followed an
overabundance of lists of “21st century skills” – the competences, skills and
learning dispositions identified as being required for success in 21st-century
society and workplaces, with linked guidance on curriculum and assessment
(e.g. Trilling & Fadel, 2009). The chapter also describes a developing fo-
cus on what it means to be “competent” in modern-day society (European
Commission Education & Culture, 2007; Vitello et al., 2021), and the im-
plications for the curriculum – and related assessment – in formal education.
Finally, Chapter 2 refers to developments in technology, including digital
data systems, “deep” and transformative technologies, computational intel-
ligences and smart automation, concluding with a discussion of the impact of
generative artificial intelligence (AI).
In Chapter 3 (“New priorities and an unexpected shock”), the two priori-
ties that we identify and discuss in detail are climate change and well-being.
The “unexpected shock” is the Covid-19 pandemic. The “new priorities”
are not new developments, but the priority now given to them is a highlight
of the first quarter of the 21st century. Climate change has very quickly ag-
gravated environmental and social concerns (in both developed and develop-
ing countries), as well as directly and indirectly affecting all organisations,
institutions and areas of life during the early part of the 21st century. And
the two “new priorities” are linked by the reported increase in anxiety and
stress about the future of the planet. Questions about the implications for
educational assessment are raised and discussed in the chapter. Well-being
and mental health, including that of young people, are increasingly seen as
important objectives of education and offer a template to hold against edu-
cational assessment: Does assessment focus on the right things and do its
practices and institutions promote well-being?
Covid-19 was undoubtedly a shock, though many governments had pre-
pared for such an eventuality to some extent. We are only beginning to un-
derstand the impact of Covid-19 on teaching, learning and the content and
practicalities of educational assessment. What is clear is that the pandemic
has created a fissure in long-term thinking about education and assessment:
 Introduction 5

it is not possible to chart continuous straight-line development through the

first quarter of the century.
Chapter 4 (“Changes to thinking about society”) seeks to identify trends
in thinking about society and public policy that have come to the forefront in
the 21st century and that are particularly important for education and assess-
ment. Views about the purpose and content of education are at the heart of
debates about society and values and arguably have become more contested
and divisive (Putnam & Garrett, 2020). “Culture wars” have been reflected
in conflicting views about assessment and the use of assessment for selection.
This has played out most notably in the United States (Campbell & Man-
ning, 2018) but has reverberations in Europe, and perhaps particularly in
England. The chapter considers the theoretical challenges presented by criti-
cal theory – and, in particular, by Critical Race Theory – and then presents
two case studies: the debate in the USA about whether the law should allow
race-conscious college admissions policies; and the agenda for “decolonis-
ing” the university curriculum in the UK. All these theoretical developments
have implications for assessment – for what is assessed and how, and how
the outcomes are used.
Chapter 5 (“Changes to thinking about education and assessment”) iden-
tifies and discusses strands of thinking about education and educational as-
sessment that are particularly powerful or important at this point in the 21st
century. These include trends in thinking about the purposes of education,
challenges to any consensus on constructivist views of learning and a revival
of support for “knowledge”. We consider the theoretical issues raised by the
increased focus on “competence” as an aim of education and a construct for
assessment. We also consider the challenges posed to the conceptualisation
of education and assessment by the availability of “big data” and the seismic
impact of generative AI.
Chapter 6 (“The moral compass”) seeks to analyse moral questions about
assessment in educational contexts. It starts with a brief account of the do-
main of “morality” and proceeds to address key, fundamental, questions:
What is the moral justification for educational assessment? What moral chal-
lenges can be made to educational assessment, and are they persuasive? And
what moral principles should govern practice in educational assessment?
In Chapter 7, we draw together lessons learned from the previous chap-
ters and offer conclusions about the path ahead for assessment theory and
practice. We indicate areas in which further work will be required. We give
examples of what needs to be done, but we do not complete the tasks. For
example, we argue that a reconceptualisation of the theoretical “assessment
argument” is required, and we say why that is so, but it will be for others
to follow our lead and complete the development of a new model argument.
And throughout the book – and particularly in the final chapter – we express
our own views. Readers may disagree with them, but our main aim is to
6 Introduction

invite readers to address the questions we have posed and decide what their
own view is.
Before proceeding to give an introductory overview of these discussions,
we would like to mention three examples of areas of assessment that we
have not had space to discuss in detail in this book, but which we hope will
continue to be taken up by others in the years ahead. The first is the role of
assessment in the development of infants and very young children. There are
two overlapping reasons why assessment in the early years is important. The
first is to provide information as early as possible about children who are not
progressing as might be hoped/expected in areas identified as important for
their development. Common sense and research (e.g. Research in Practice,
2022; OECD, 2018) concur in advocating supportive early intervention. The
second reason is that assessment in the early years can look forward to formal
education (preschool, school and beyond) and can denote aspects of learn-
ing, health and well-being which most accurately predict future educational
achievement. Information from longitudinal sample surveys is typically used
for this purpose. With increasing recognition of the importance of motivation
to learn and its interrelationship with mental health and well-being, the two
purposes increasingly intersect.
The second area of assessment that deserves wider study than has been
possible in this book is its role in relation to the education of learners with
special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). The numbers of children
and young people of school age who have been categorised by governments
as having SEND can fluctuate because of definitions or changes in govern-
ment policy, but in many countries, the trend in the 2020s has been steeply
upwards,7 with the highest numbers diagnosed as having autism, followed
by speech and language difficulties (e.g. Lindsay et al., 2016). The questions
raised for assessment are at least twofold: How can and should incidences
of SEND be assessed? And how can educational assessments be made more
equitable and accessible for learners with SEND?
A third area, which we mention here but do not cover in detail elsewhere,
is the link between assessment and eugenics. Early eugenics, in the 1900s and
before, sought to study ways in which the physical and mental characteristics
of the human race might be improved. The most troublesome link with as-
sessment was the use of testing to identify people with “inferior” genes (as
evidenced, e.g., by their IQ test scores), with consequences including national
measures to prevent or discourage them from having children. The horren-
dous implementation by Nazi Germany in the 1930s and 1940s of practices
based on eugenic ideology is well documented. At this time in the 21st cen-
tury, attention focuses mainly on the elimination of genetic disease. However,
two questions remain pertinent for assessment: Is there any defensible and
unbiased form of assessment that can be used to identify inherited attrib-
utes, knowledge, or skills? And second, should qualifications or evidence
 Introduction 7

from assessments of levels of education achieved ever be used as a criterion

for steering priorities in national (or international) policies on encouraging
or discouraging childbearing? As late as 1986, Singapore guaranteed pay
increases to female graduates when they gave birth to a child, while offer-
ing grants towards house purchases for non-graduate married women on
condition that they were sterilised after the first or second child. In China, in
June 1995, a law was passed making it illegal for carriers of certain genetic
diseases to marry unless they agreed to sterilisation or long-term contracep-
tion. All couples who wished to marry had to undergo genetic screening.
Although readers may easily conclude that such examples are not relevant to
future decades in the 21st century, they do bring into focus difficult questions
about the use of educational outcomes for social policy and the possibility of
unbiased, standardised testing.
Why did we not cover these important issues – or others that readers
may identify – in detail? The main reason is space and the need to be selec-
tive, given the wide sweep of the survey of issues in this book. However,
we also consider that the issues that we have selected have wide relevance,
beyond the context in which they first arose, for the world of assessment.
For example, many of the theoretical issues about assessment discussed
in Chapter 7 are as relevant to early years as to the assessment of older
learners.
The remainder of this introductory chapter seeks to bring together some
key features of our account of education and educational assessment at
this time.

Setting the scene

Changing worlds, shifting horizons

The opening quarter of the new century has been defined by iconic moments
and groundbreaking developments, all of which had varying impacts on edu-
cation and assessment. The list includes a proliferation of wars: the US in-
vasion of Iraq and the long-term impact on the Middle East; ongoing civil
wars in Syria, Libya and Yemen; the Russian invasion of Ukraine; genocide
in Congo and Darfur; the “Arab Spring” – a series of uprisings and protests
against Arab governments; deepening concern over the rise of Islamic ex-
tremism following the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the USA; and conflict in Israel
and Palestine. Economically, 2008 saw the worst global recession since the
Great Depression in the 1930s; the rise of a global economy and Third World
consumerism; the growth of international migration; and the acceleration of
the global shift from working in agriculture to living in cities.
Developments in communications included the growth of online social me-
dia and networking services such as YouTube and Facebook; the launch of
the first Android smartphone; the emergence of Global Positioning Systems;
8 Introduction

and increasingly faster cellular technologies like the internet. The United
States elected its first African American President; the UK departed from the
European Union; and culturally many countries saw rises in nationalism, in
contrast to the internationalism of communications available, and increas-
ingly polarised differences of view (“culture wars”). And all of these develop-
ments are over and above those we have selected for more detailed discussion
in Chapter 3, such as Covid-19 and the rapid increase in evidence – and
awareness – of the threats posed by climate change.
Shifting horizons have been a prevailing feature dominating the first
quarter of the 21st century: shifts in technology, resources, migration and
demographics – from leveraging assets to accessing ecosystems; from the
knowledge economy to the collaboration economy; and shifts in power from
corporations to technology platforms.
As the 21st century began to unfurl, it was becoming increasingly evident
that technological “connectedness” was not only beginning to pave the way
for transformative changes in the way society and individuals functioned
but also starting to disrupt almost every area of life. At the time of writ-
ing, generative AI is the world’s fastest-growing “deep” technology,8 and is
demonstrating enormous potential to reform the rules of industries and or-
ganisations; drive significant economic growth; and transform all sectors of
life, including education (HM Government, 2021).
In these changing contexts, educational assessment has itself been chang-
ing (e.g. Pellegrino, 1999; Bennett, 2002). A backcloth of growing diver-
sity, increased migration, globalisation, the emergence of new players in the
world economy and the explosion of information technology has meant that
citizens of most countries need to upgrade their skills throughout their adult
lives in order to keep abreast of changes in the requirements of modern liv-
ing, both in the workplace and in their personal lives. “Lifelong learning”9
has become the new mantra for all citizens in the modern world.
Education is expected to prepare learners for a fast-changing world in
which technological, demographic, social, environmental, economic and po-
litical transformation are proving to be seismic. Assessment is increasingly
expected to take account of the need to support all the developments de-
scribed here, including increased participation in schooling and in university
education (particularly in preparation for the increase in careers requiring a
degree); “credentialism” (increased demand for formal qualifications); and
the need for so-called 21st century-competencies (OECD, 2018).

Setbacks and unresolved issues

The early years of the 21st century saw a plethora of visionary initiatives,
strategies, mandates and reform movements that set out key educational
goals to be fulfilled by specific deadlines (see, e.g. UNESCO, 2000; World
 Introduction 9

Education Report, 2000; World Education Forum, 2015). However, a mere

15 years after 164 countries agreed to work towards “Education for All”,
the six goals set at the turn of the century were achieved by only one-third of
them, and only half made universal primary education a reality.
The United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development included
a Fourth Sustainable Development Goal, which was to “Ensure inclusive
and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportuni-
ties for all” (United Nations, 2015, p. 18). Growing importance was placed
on “lifelong learning”, which had been championed in the latter decades of
the 20th century. Lifelong learning not only seeks to enhance social inclu-
sion, active citizenship and personal development but serves as a catalyst for
competitiveness and employability. However, according to the OECD (Bol-
lington, 2015), actual implementation of related policies was falling behind
quite quickly, with some sources suggesting that adult participation beyond
formal school years was low and has remained low (Smith et al., 2019; UN-
ESCO, 2019).
Nevertheless, the importance of learning for the welfare of the nation
and its citizens beyond formal schooling has continued to be thought to be
crucial in fostering a learning culture fit for the 21st century. Empowering
learners with “new” skills and competencies constituted a nation’s human
capital, upon which the 21st-century economy and society were seen to de-
pend. Though not a new concept, the “learning society” (an educational phi-
losophy backed by the OECD and UNESCO) increased in recognition and
popularity with the proposal that lifelong learning is a condition for global
economic competitiveness (superseding the former conception of it being a
condition for democratic citizenship). However, there were important chal-
lenges to making lifelong learning for all a reality, not least of which was
equitable access to learning.10
The “21st century skills” were thought to be essential for success in
21st-century society and workplaces. Lists of these skills were shared across
the world, and education was seen as linked to growing internationalism
across countries and multiculturalism within countries (European Commis-
sion, 2019). In reality, the skills learners needed for the 21st century were nei-
ther new nor qualitatively different from those required in previous times.11
What was different, however, was the degree to which national and individual
economic success was seen as reliant on the acquisition of such skills – even
though there was never agreement on precisely what the skills were.
The ubiquity of increasingly advanced technology promised novel oppor-
tunities for teaching, learning and assessment. Voices throughout education
made ambitious claims about the extent of change that technology would
drive in education and the speed with which it would take place (Boston,
2005). In the world of educational assessment, technology was seen as
opening doors to many new opportunities and promising much in terms of
10 Introduction

informed interventions, practice and policy. It seemed inevitable that tech-

nology would “force fundamental changes in the format and content of as-
sessment” (Bennett, 2002, p. 2; Boston, 2007). However, in 2016, the OECD
reported that the influence of digital technologies on educational assessment
appeared “shallow” (OECD, 2016, p. 3)12 and in many countries there con-
tinued to be a nervous reluctance to use digital technologies in high-stakes
national examinations. Now, more than two decades into a new century,
we see that while the availability of digital-based learning and assessments
continues to expand, we are still on the journey towards being able to assert
definitively that “we are making appropriate use of good technology” (Rich-
ardson & Clesham, 2021, p. 5).
As key assessment educators and organisations were increasingly coming
to accept the inevitable union of assessment and technology, they were also
becoming more aware of the ethical considerations that the development and
implementation of technology-enhanced assessment practice would create.13
Ethical issues were varied and far-reaching:

• Would technology-enhanced assessment lead to new social and educa-

tional divides?
• What would be the dangers relating to the collection, use and protection
of huge personalised data sets and the ownership and control of informa-
tion? Could – or should – assessment providers take steps to mitigate these
dangers?
• To what extent could digital technologies support fairer assessment meth-
ods and greater involvement of learners in their own assessment?

Ethical concerns touched upon emotive issues: social exclusion, trust, indi-
vidual autonomy, new forms of digital dividedness14 and privacy as well as
the increasing risks associated with “big” data and the rise of learning analyt-
ics.15 We discuss this in more detail in Chapter 5.
The impact of advances in the cognitive sciences on educational assessment
had already been a cause of some optimism in the second half of the 20th
century. It was predicted that the potential of cognitive psychology would
be “fully realized through item design” (Embretson & Gorin, 2001, p. 343).
Aspects of cognitive psychology appeared particularly well-suited to psycho-
metric traditions of theory and practice, where measurement and cognitive
issues intersected. Any means of observing test-taker behaviours and the
mental processes they employed in responding to and solving test questions
were perceived as fundamental to construct validity (Snow & Lohman, 1989;
Messick, 1995, p. 742; Knight & Silverstein, 2001).
Throughout the first decade of the new century, there was growing de-
mand to make assessments more transparent about the cognitive processes
they sought to measure (US. Department of Education, 2004). It was evident,
 Introduction 11

for example, that the competencies required for “mathematisation” (OECD,

2004, p. 40) encompassed a number of cognitive activities and demands elic-
ited in assessments for the OECD’s Programme for International Student As-
sessment (PISA) in 2003.
Over the last thirty years, cognitive diagnosis has been increasingly in-
fluential in a range of educational contexts to measure and advance indi-
vidual development. The question of how psychological constructs such as
cognition and personality can be optimally related to observable behaviour
was seen as central to psychometric measurement, particularly in the USA.
Research was also beginning to focus more on theories of learning and their
relationship with educational assessments (see, e.g. Baird et al., 2014).
Alongside cognitive psychology, the application of neuroscience to educa-
tion was also gaining traction, helped by the emergence of innovative im-
aging technologies (Goswami, 2006). Neuroscience and the psychology of
learning were demonstrating their potential relevance, legitimacy and pos-
sibilities when applied to educational assessment (Dhawan, 2014).
In the latter stages of the 20th century, talk of “assessment for learning”
(AfL), as opposed to “assessment of learning”, became prominent in discus-
sion of educational assessment in many countries, with many at the time
championing AfL as one of the most promising approaches for initiating im-
provement in student learning. In their highly acclaimed review of classroom
assessment practices, Black and Wiliam (1998) suggested that increased
adoption of and engagement with formative assessment approaches would
lead to noteworthy improvements in standards of attainment and achieve-
ment. However, they also expressed uneasiness that progress had been
slow-moving, primarily owing to the amount of effort afforded to the vari-
ous developments of summative assessments. In England, the “Assessment
Reform Group” (1989–2010) played a key role over the turn of the century
in making the case that policy on educational assessment should take more
account of relevant research findings. However, there were ideological and
policy differences about education and the place of assessment in it, and the
competing views had their academic champions.
In addition to conceptual confusions and definitional ambiguities, practi-
cal barriers to the integration and implementation of AfL classroom practices
were beginning to be reported in the early research literature, even causing
some to question the legitimacy of treating AfL as a type of “assessment” at
all (e.g. Swaffield, 2009; Bennett, 2011; Didau, 2014; Fletcher-Wood, 2017;
Brown, 2019). It was clear, at the turn of the century, that formative assess-
ment was not well understood by teachers and was weak in practice.
Other theoretical disputes arose during this period. One in particular re-
lated to the scope of validity – a controversy that had been simmering since the
late 1980s. In 1989, Samuel Messick’s conceptualisation of validity widened
the compass of validity inquiry by including social and value-laden aspects
12 Introduction

of assessments. He effectively extended traditional measurement boundaries

into issues relating to policy – what Kane (2001) has termed the prescrip-
tive part of a validity argument. However, almost immediately following the
publication of Messick’s (1989) seminal treatise on validity, his progressive
matrix16 (based on a foundation of construct validity) was subject to intense
scrutiny and criticism (see, e.g. Shepard, 1993, 1997).
Although Messick’s conception of validity provided the basis for what be-
came a broad professional consensus over core validity concepts within the
mainstream educational and psychological assessment community (AERA
et al., 2014), discontent with Messick’s approach has continued to be voiced.
A new wave of validity theorists has decried the “absurdities of construct va-
lidity theory” (Borsboom et al., 2009, p. 135), rejected what they perceive as
complicated validity frameworks, and contended that construct validity is un-
able to restrict the type and extent of test score interpretations to be considered.
What Newton and Baird (2016) have called “The Great Validity De-
bate” has continued over the years we are reviewing. Broadly, a major
issue has been whether or not social consequences should be defined as an
integral part of a definition of validity, with a “for” camp embracing the
evaluation of social consequences (e.g. Linn, 1997; Shepard, 1997), and
an “against” camp rejecting it (e.g. Mehrens, 1997; Popham, 1997). The
debate continues.17 In Chapter 7, we advocate a future direction for think-
ing about assessment, which has implications for validity as well as for the
theoretical model for the “assessment argument”.
.................
In this introductory chapter, we have outlined the approach and structure of
the book and set the scene by describing and briefly discussing some of the
main issues in educational assessment as we approach the second quarter
of the 21st century. Our aim is to bring together disparate trends and intel-
lectual disciplines, to identify and ask questions about them for educational
assessment, and, we hope, to provide a reference point for similar reviews in
the future. We hope that readers – whether policymakers, assessment practi-
tioners or researchers – will be stimulated to follow up some of the issues we
raise and develop their own ideas as assessment moves forward.

Notes
1 Bill Clinton at the “Millennium Around the World” Celebration, 2000 www.
presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-the-millennium-around-the-world-
celebration
2 See Manolakelli (2022) – Inter, Multi, Cross, Trans, & Intra-disciplinary:
What is the difference, and why is it important? www.archpsych.co.uk/post/
disciplinarities-definitions
3 As, for example, by R.S. Peters in the first chapter of his Ethics and Education
(1966). Aspects of Peters’s account were disputed then and remain so.
 Introduction 13

4 See Johnson and Majewska (2022) for a review of the literature outlining the
characteristics, benefits and disadvantages of formal, non-formal and informal
learning.
5 We have discussed this definition at greater length in Nisbet and Shaw (2020,
pp. 7–10).
6 Mary James defines educational assessment as “all those activities that involve
eliciting evidence of student learning and drawing inferences as the basis for deci-
sions” (James, 2010, p. 163).
7 For a discussion of trends in the UK, including among young children, see
www.educationalneuroscience.org.uk/2022/04/01/why-has-there-been-a-rise-
in-number-of-sen-children-especially-in-the-early-years/
8 “Deep” technologies are grounded in important scientific advances and engineer-
ing innovations but which require a longer period of gestation and/or extensive
capital investment prior to commercial application. Transformative technologies
are technologies that have the potential to impact across many sectors of the econ-
omy (as opposed to a single sector).
9 “Lifelong learning” was a term coined by Leslie Watkins and popularised by Pro-
fessor Clint Taylor of City Unified School in 1993. While not a new concept, it is
one that has assumed a greater and new emphasis in the 21st century.
10 See the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals – Goal
4: “Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learn-
ing opportunities for all”. https://sdgs.un.org/goals
11 There also exists an ongoing tension in assessment around the conceptualisation
of 21st century skills, that is, how knowledge is embedded in competence and how
this can be recognised.
12 OECD (2016) was a background report to the second Global Education Industry
Summit, held in Jerusalem on 26–27 September 2016, and covered the available
evidence on innovation in education, the impact of digital technologies on teach-
ing and learning, and the role of digital skills and the education industries in the
process of innovation, using data from OECD surveys.
13 See, for example, Lowman (2013) for a discussion of the use of unproctored or
proctored internet testing, p. 107.
14 See Coleman (2021) for a discussion of the digital divide in the UK post-pandemic.
15 See Timmis et al. (2016) for a discussion of the potential, the challenges, and the
risks associated with technology-enhanced assessment.
16 Introduced to illustrate how the evaluation of scientific and ethical questions
could be integrated within a common validity framework.
17 Chronicled by Newton and Shaw (2014).

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