Indices of quadratic programs over reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces for fun and profit
Indices of quadratic programs over reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces for fun and profit
1. Introduction
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Stock market indices, such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial
Average, NASDAQ Composite index and the like, are supposed to
in some way capture the overall health and behavior of the market.
The so-called “Bogleheads” (followers of the philosophy of Jack Bogle
[13, 14]) often make stronger claims such as one cannot beat such and
such an index (such as the S&P 500) in the long run. The point being
that such an allocation reflects the broad allocation of the resources of
Date: December 25, 2024.
2020 Mathematics Subject Classification. 30C15, 30C80, 47B32, 46E22, 91G10,
90C20.
Key words and phrases. modern portfolio theory, topiary, kernel embedding of
measures, positive allocation problem, long investment, reproducing kernel Hilbert
spaces, geometric function theory, maze solving.
† Partially supported by National Science Foundation DMS Analysis Grant
2319010. Thanks to Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach workshops
“Real Algebraic Geometry with a View toward Koopman Operator Methods” and
“Non-commutative Function Theory and Free Probability.” Part of this research
was performed while the author was visiting the Institute for Pure and Applied
Mathematics (IPAM), which is supported by the National Science Foundation
(Grant No. DMS-1925919).
1
2 G. HUTINET AND J. E. PASCOE
society, and perhaps that, in principle, the growth in our real resources
cannot be too outpaced within the market, if only because the outpac-
ing portion becomes synonymous with the market as the residual parts
of the market become impossible to resolve by comparison. (Such can
be viewed as a sort of efficient market hypothesis, see [32].)
On the other hand, many proponents of “value” advocate for a nar-
row range of extremely well-researched long investments, with a general
preference for determinism over speculative large payoffs. (Large spec-
ulative payoffs are often sought in the arena of “growth” investing,
e.g. [8].) Advocates of such a philosophy often cite [19] as founda-
tional. Here an investment being long means that you actually own
something, as opposed to investment based on more exotic financial
products, such as shorts, options, pet insurance and other derivative
products.
We give some formal justification to the apparently contradictory
reasoning– our invisible index theorem says that the optimal portfolio
will approximate some broad index if possible, but because of geomet-
ric features of the space of securities, the optimal portfolio may remain
sparse. Moreover, any optimal portfolio behaves somewhat like an in-
dex, and all assets that are not used are worse than some capital asset
pricing model of that index would require. Sparsity, in turn, suggests
that investing fundamentally is massively multiplayer– even if we
remove the assets underlying ones optimal portfolio, good approxima-
tions to the invisible index may be available using wildly different secu-
rities which fit together to make a coherent portfolio is a superficially
different way.
1.1.1. One coin. Consider the following game: one is allowed to bet
any amount of money on a single coin flip, if one wins they get back
double their bet, otherwise, one gets two fifths their bet back, rounding
down any fractional pennies. For example, without loss of generality,
assume we always pick heads and always bet all of our money. Starting
with one dollar we flip the coin ten times and flip the sequence
HT T T T T HHHT
where each H represents a head and T represents a tail. We can track
how much money we would have in the following table.
TOPIARISM 3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Flip - H T T T T T H H H T
Value $1.00 $2.00 $0.80 $0.32 $0.12 $0.04 $0.01 $0.02 $0.04 $0.08 $0.03
Clearly, on such a play we have gotten somewhat unlucky.
To analyze the game, let us first summarize the possible outcomes
of a single flip in a table.
H T
Outcome 2 2/5
Each outcome has a likelyhood or probability of happening.
H T
Chance 50% 50%
1.1.3. Going all-in lets the house play a martingale. If one continually
goes all in, we see the exponential increase in bets that occurs in a
martingale strategy. Note that after some point successive bets will
need to be made with loans.
That is, companies and banks can play more aggressive, high-risk
strategies due to their extreme capacity for leverage. Presumably, when
one invests in something that itself has debt, although they may have
no obligation to pay, they still accept indirect risk due to the prior claim
of the bondholders. One gauges how successful their use of leverage has
been within the context of their overall strategy. As large amounts of
debt and leverage are already baked into assets, analysis becomes very
delicate when one wants to use leverage on top of that.
1.1.4. Two coins. Consider again the following game: one is allowed
to bet any amount of money on a single coin flip, if one wins they get
back double their bet, otherwise, one gets two fifths their bet back,
rounding down any fractional pennies. Now assume one can play two
games at once, splitting your money between the coins however you
like. For example, without loss of generality, assume we always pick
heads and always bet all of our money. We can track how much money
we would have in the following table.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Flip - H T T T T T H H H T
Flip - H T T H T T H T H H
Value $1.00 $2.00 $0.80 $0.32 $0.38 $0.14 $0.04 $0.08 $0.04 $0.08 $0.04
On glance, the game seems good but similar in ruin to the first game
as we only got a penny more on the small simulation above. On average,
we make 2+6/5+6/5+2/5
4
= 65 times our money for every bet made, that
is the expected value of an individual round where we bet one unit of
value is to get an extra fifth of a unit back. Still obviously a great deal.
On the other hand, suppose again that we always go all in. Let 100
be the number of flips so far, assume we have flipped 27 double tails,
50 mixed heads and tails and 23 double heads, a somewhat average
TOPIARISM 5
1.1.5. Magic coins. Consider again the following game: one is allowed
to bet any amount of money on a single coin flip, if one wins they get
back double their bet, otherwise, one gets two fifths their bet back,
rounding down any fractional pennies. Now assume one can play two
games at once, splitting your money between the coins however you like.
Moreover, these coins are enchanted so that they always flip opposite
outcomes. For example, without loss of generality, assume we always
pick heads and always bet all of our money.
We can track how much money we would have in the following table.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Flip - H T T T T T H H H T
Flip - T H H H H H T T T H
Value $1.00 $1.20 $1.44 $1.72 $2.06 $2.47 $2.96 $3.55 $4.26 $5.11 $6.13
We took our original unlucky sequence from Section 1.1.1 and turned
it into quite a good one.
To analyze the game, let us first summarize the possible outcomes
of a single flip in a table.
Outcome H T
H 2 6/5
T 6/5 2/5
√
where Bt is a Brownian motion which grows like t. Thus, to find the
optimal portfolio for long term median growth, one sees the need to
maximize m − σ 2 /2 which is given explicitly by the formula above.
The following principle explains the reward for diversification as
a reward for risk management (or generation determinism [for lower
bounds]): In terms of long term median growth, given a basket of se-
curities with approximately equal returns, one is stochastically paid for
destroying variance at a rate on one variance destroyed gives one half
unit of median return.
The capital asset pricing model states that
ψi − r = βi (ψM − r)
where ψM is the return of the market portfolio (often modelled by an
index such as the S&P 500) and r represents the return on a risk-
free asset (usually modelled by something like a treasury bill,) and βi
is the covariance of the market portfolio with asset i divided by the
variance of the market portfolio. The supposed point being that to
beat the market one needs to choose stocks with more market risk, in
the sense that their covariance with the market portfolio is higher than
the variance of the market portfolio. Fama-French type models add
extra terms to better fit data– in principle, these are factors affecting
the return that cannot be captured by mean-variance analysis. See [18]
for futher overview.
The approach to capital asset pricing modeling does not take into ac-
count an important phenomenon– that a portfolio must cohere. When
one selects an outfit, some things do not work together– if you need to
add some particular accessory, one may need to remove other articles
to have the ensemble make sense. (Where harmony may be thought
of as approximating the magic coins above.) We rectify such by deal-
ing with coherent fragments of the market directly, which will be our
topiaric index theory.
3. Topiarism
Our basic problem of study is as follows.
Definition 3.1. Let H be real reproducing kernel Hilbert space on
some domain Ω. Let ψ be a continuous function on Ω. Let K ⊆ Ω be
compact. We define the aesthetic objective to be
Z
O(µ) = ψdµ − ∥µ∥2 /2.
is equivalent to maximizing
Z
O(µ) = ψdµ − ∥µ∥2 /2
as ψ is fixed. That is, from the closest measure perspective, the latter
aesthetic formulation we have adopted need not require ψ ∈ H.
An important example is the problem of optimization of long port-
folios (and other operations research problems) following Markowitz
modern portfolio theory [18]. (The asymptotic growth rate of a geo-
metric Brownian motion is equal to its mean minus its variance over
two.) The name topiary is chosen in relation to the financial concept
of hedging.
Lemma 3.2. Let H be real reproducing kernel Hilbert space on some
domain Ω. Let ψ be a continuous function on Ω. Let K ⊆ Ω be compact.
The aesthetic objective satisfies
Z
DO(µ)[δx − µ] = ψ(x) − µ(x) − ψ(t) − µ(t)dµ(t).
Thus, we call
Z
ιµ = ψ − µ − ψ(t) − µ(t)dµ(t)
The classical capital asset pricing model [18] is essentially the as-
sumption that whatever assets being analyzed form a topiaric index
and contain a risk free asset. We note that “alpha” based analysis
with respect to a topiaric index returns alpha uniformly nonpositive,
12 G. HUTINET AND J. E. PASCOE
that is Z
α(x) = ψ(x) − rK − β(x) ψdµ − rK
is nonpositive.
The exact elaboration of Julia-Caratheodory-Wolff theory in such a
setting is unclear, especially with respect to more sophisticated notions
such as horocycles. As with the approach of Agler, McCarthy and
Young of Julia-Caratheodory type theorems [6], we derive estimates
using Cauchy-Schwarz. A somewhat simplistic interpretation is that
they describe regularity of functions near boundary optima.
Theorem 4.2 (Topiaric Julia-Caratheodory inequality). Let H be real
reproducing kernel Hilbert space on some domain Ω. Let ψ be a contin-
uous function on Ω. Write d(x, y) = ∥kx − ky ∥. Let K ⊆ Ω be compact.
Let µ be the topiary of K. Let x be in the topiaric index of K. For every
y ∈ K such that d(x, y) ̸= 0 we have that
ψ(y) − ψ(x) µ(y) − µ(x)
−∥ψ∥ ≤ ≤ ≤ ∥µ∥
d(y, x) d(y, x)
where ∥ψ∥ if formally infinite if ψ ∈ / H. Here, the middle inequality is
an equality if y is also in the topiaric index.
Proof. Note,
Z
ψ(x) − rK = β(x) ψdµ − rK = µ(x),
and Z
ψ(y) − rK ≤ β(y) ψdµ − rK = µ(y).
Subtracting,
ψ(y) − ψ(x) ≤ µ(y) − µ(x).
Thus, the middle inequality is satisfied. Now,
µ(y) − µ(x) = ⟨µ, ky − kx ⟩ ≤ ∥µ∥∥ky − kx ∥
by the Cauchy-Schwartz inequality. Substituting d(x, y) = ∥kx − ky ∥
and rearranging gives the right hand inequality. Similarly, if so defined
ψ(y) − ψ(x) = ⟨ψ, ky − kx ⟩ ≥ −∥ψ∥∥ky − kx ∥
by Cauchy-Schwartz. □
Informally, we may interpret ψ as more contractive that µ.
TOPIARISM 13
µ(y)
(µ(x), ψ(x))
ψ(y)
rK
µ(y)
(µ(x), ψ(x))
ψ(y)
rK
7. Approximation
We now give some perspectives on approximating the topiary, espe-
cially in light of empirical sparsity.
16 G. HUTINET AND J. E. PASCOE
bad0
bad1
bad2
bad3
topiary
thus find large topiaric indices within your space, without regard to
true optimality.
Problem 2 (Broad index problem). Given a set K find the largest top-
iaric index possible.
8. Examples
8.1. Minotaur in the hedge maze. Consider the real Fock space
with kernel A(z, w) = ℜez,w . Let ψ = 0. Let M ⊆ C be a compact
set with path-connected complement, and have 0 ∈ / M . Starting at
0 following the gradient of the aesthetic objective of topiary(M ) gives
a path connecting 0 to ∞ not intersecting M. We note that if the
boundary of M is a smooth analytic curve, the topiaric index is finite,
as any accumulation on a compact smooth closed real analytic curve
would force the function to be globally constant as the aesthetic margin
of the topiary is constant exactly on the topiaric index. We also note
that the contour of 0 of the aesthetic objective touches M exactly at
the topiaric index of M. If M is the closure of its interior, indeed such
a contour must be tangent. (Indeed, the topiary behaves somewhat
like a support vector machine from the theory of machine learning
and cybernetic intelligence. See [30] for insight into support vector
machines.)
Of course, on any set winding around 0, we must have the topiary be
constant. Thus, by the invisible index theorem, we are approximating
the kernel of 0. Recursively defined mazes can encode universal com-
puters. (In the sense that if there is path from some particular point,
then some particular clause is true. That is, one can use a tree to write
down the letters of a possible proof which deposits into a pool when
it finds a legitimate proof.) There is at least some weak analogy of a
market absent of shocks behaving like a diffusion process (and likely
such has the stocks as waterwheels gathering the flux.)
One can do similarly over other spaces of harmonic functions in two
variables or to reach other locales by minimizing ∥µ − δα ∥ where α is
some point of interest and one wants to find a path from the origin to
the boundary.
22 G. HUTINET AND J. E. PASCOE
8.2. Trichotomy. Lets look at the image of the point mass at 0 again
in the real Fock space. Fix M ⊆ C compact with analytic boundary.
Again let ψ be 0. There are three possibilities:
(1) that M winds around the origin, in which case one could take
a measure supported on a continua of points,
(2) that we choose some finite collection of points from the bound-
ary of M,
(3) that 0 is in M, thus we take a point mass at 0.
One can find caricatures of various “value investing” theories in each,
with the first essentially corresponding to constructing a broad index
fund, the second corresponding to deep research and careful selection,
the last being buying an index fund. Difference in strategy may be
explained by difference in salience, which can be manifested as differ-
ences of M. In light of the invisible index theorem, they all approximate
correspond to buying the invisible true index fund.
8.3. Topiaric portfoliation. Such an optimization problem arises nat-
urally in portfolio theory, as the median growth rate of a geometric
Brownian motion is given by µ − σ 2 /2 where µ is the mean growth
and σ 2 is the variance. (That is, the kernel matrix arises from some
covariance matrix and the ψ gives the performances.) Assuming the
presence of risk-free assets such as cash or bonds of firm credit, one
sees that an asset with maximum mean must be in the green frontier,
which helps avoid the chronic zig-zag-drag problem. In portfolio theory,
the hedge corresponds to the Markowitz optimal portfolio [25, 34] for
choice of risk tolerance parameter two, and other risk tolerances may be
obtained by scaling the kernel. (Those correspond to the optimal port-
folio keeping at least some fixed fraction in risk-free reserve, or playing
with at some fixed amount of margin.) Optimal portfolios with non-
negative weights are often supported on small sets, whereas those with
arbitrary weights are diffuse [20, 10], hence in practice, greedy compu-
tation of the topiary is a low dimensional problem which is significantly
easier and more robust. Note also that large covariance matrices are
often ill-conditioned, and thus the Markowitz optimal portfolio may be
unknowable with much certainty.
Given that large amounts of empirical data will contain “lucky” and
“unlucky” outliers, one may want to mildly correct the data according
to your risk belief. For example, if the return of a security exceeds
its variance by more that the risk free rate, one would be incentivized
to go all in on such a security, buying none of the risk free asset.
One can correct such by either decreasing the mean, increasing the
variance, or both and retain the positive semidefiniteness of the kernel.
24 G. HUTINET AND J. E. PASCOE
The “going well together” analogy works here, and informs what
suborganizations can survive on their own. Suborganizations coming
from one division may not be able to thrive.
determinacy and return similarly, although you must optimize over two
measures instead of one. The point being that we expect allocations
which are similar to superpositions of allocations of different securities
from the past under our kernel embedding to have similar returns.
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Email address, Geoffrey Hutinet: [email protected]