MSD-017

Challenges to Sustainable
Development
Indira Gandhi
National Open University
School of Interdisciplinary and
Trans-disciplinary Studies

Block

1
CLIMATE CHANGE
UNIT 1
Climate Change — An Overview 5
UNIT 2
Climate Change and Natural Resource System 21
UNIT 3
Human Dimensions of Climate Change 38
UNIT 4
Adaptation and Mitigation 54
PROGRAMME DESIGN COMMITTEE
ADVISORS
Prof. V. N. Rajasekharan Pillai Prof. M.S. Swaminathan Dr. (Mrs.) Latha Pillai
Former Vice-Chancellor Honorary Chair, Chair for Former Pro-Vice Chancellor
IGNOU, New Delhi Sustainable Development and Executive Director, CSD
IGNOU, New Delhi IGNOU, New Delhi
EXPERTS
Prof. P.C. Kesavan Dr. A.K. Shiva Kumar Prof. M.K. Salooja
Emeritus Professor Advisor, UNICEF CSD & SOA
CSD, IGNOU, New Delhi New Delhi IGNOU, New Delhi
Prof. P.S. Ramakrishnan Dr. Swarna S. Vepa Prof. K.S. Rao
JNU, New Delhi Madras School of Economics Dept. of Botany
Chennai University of Delhi
Dr. P. A. Azeez
Sálim Ali Center for Ornithology and Dr. Nehal A. Farooque Dr. Subhakanta Mohapatra
Natural History (SACON) SOEDS, IGNOU SOS, IGNOU
Coimbatore New Delhi New Delhi
Dr. Tanushree Bhattacharaya Dr. Bibhu Prasad Nayak Dr. Anjan Prusty
Institute of Science and Technology The Energy Research Institute Sálim Ali Center for
for Advance Studies and Research New Delhi Ornithology and Natural
(ISTAR), Gujarat History (SACON), Coimbatore
Dr. Jagdamba Prasad Dr. Oinam Hemlata Devi Dr. Narendra Kumar Sahoo
ARD, Regional Service Division School of Human Ecology Civil Engineering Department
IGNOU Ambedkar University Maharishi Markandeshwar
New Delhi University, Ambala
Dr. Naresh Chandra Sahu Dr. Y. S. Chandra Khuman
Department of Humanities, SOITS, IGNOU, New Delhi
Social Sciences, and Management
Indian Institute of Technology
Bhubaneswar, Odisha
PROGRAMME CO-ORDINATOR
Dr. Y. S. Chandra Khuman
SOITS, IGNOU, New Delhi
COURSE EDITOR COURSE CO-ORDINATOR BLOCK CO-ORDINATOR
Prof. P.C. Kesavan Dr. Y. S. Chandra Khuman Dr. Subhakanta Mahapatra
Chair for Sustainable Development SOITS, IGNOU, New Delhi SOS, IGNOU, New Delhi
IGNOU, New Delhi
FORMAT EDITOR
Dr. Sushmitha Baskar Dr. Y. S. Chandra Khuman
SOITS, IGNOU, New Delhi SOITS, IGNOU, New Delhi
UNIT WRITERS
Unit 1. Introduction to the Science of Climate Change Dr. Subhakanta Mohapatra, SOS, IGNOU &
Unit
Unit
Unit
2.
3.
4.
Climate Change and Natural Resources System
Human Dimensions of Climate Change
Adaptation and Mitigation
}
Dr. Chandra Sekhar Bahinipati
Gujarat Institute of Development Studies
Ahmedabad
PRINT PRODUCTION
Sh. S. Burman Sh. Y.N. Sharma Sh. Sudhir Kumar
DR(P), MPDD AR(P), MPDD SO(P), MPDD
IGNOU, New Delhi IGNOU, New Delhi IGNOU, New Delhi
May, 2017
 Indira Gandhi National Open University, 2017
ISBN-978-93-86607-17-1
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BLOCK 1 INTRODUCTION
The major objective of block 1 is to study the science of climate change, global
change, impacts of climate change and action plan on climate change issues. It
has four units. Unit 1 describes the basic concepts of global change and climate
change, how human activities contribute to climate change, consequences and
impacts of climate change, climate change debates and national action plan on
climate change. In unit 2 natural resources have been defined and classified. The
impact of climate change on various natural resources specifically water, forest
and energy resources have also been detailed. In unit 3 an attempt has been made
to understand the nature of climate change risk and its impacts on the society,
especially in light of human dimension. Apart from agriculture some of the major
issues like food security, human health as well as human conflict have also been
discussed in brief. Unit 4 discusses about the meaning and significance of
mitigation and adaptation in the context of climate change. Also the role of
individual, state and civil society in reducing the effect of climate change has
been discussed.
Climate Change

4
 Climate Change —
UNIT 1 CLIMATE CHANGE – AN OVERVIEW An Overview

Structure
1.0 Introduction
1.1 Objectives
1.2 The Science of Climate Change
1.2.1 Global Warming and Climate Change
1.2.2 How do Human Activities Contribute to Climate Change?
1.3 Global Change and Climate Change
1.4 Why is Climate Change a Concern?
1.4.1 Climate Change as a Threat to Sustainability
1.5 Probable Consequences and Impacts of Climate Change
1.5.1 Observations of Changes in Climate at Global Level
1.5.2 India - National Level
1.6 Climate Change Debates
1.6.1 Kyoto Protocol
1.6.2 Copenhagen Summit
1.7 National Action Plan on Climate Change
1.8 Let Us Sum Up
1.9 Key Words
1.10 References and Further Suggested Readings
1.11 Key to Check Your Progress

1.0 INTRODUCTION
Everyday we hear about global warming or climate change. We experience intense
storms, frequent floods, severe drought, melting glaciers etc. and the list goes
on. For several years, global warming or climate change was considered as
skeptics’ argument. But, today it has been accepted as a reality. This was possible
due to the significant contribution made by various scientists engaged in climate
science research. The French mathematician, Joseph Fourier highlighted the
problem popularly known as greenhouse effect. Fourier realized that the earth’s
temperature is determined not only by the radiation absorbed by, and emitted
from the earth, but also by the existence of the atmosphere. The atmosphere
absorbs some of the radiated heat and acts as a blanket over the Earth that
maintains the temperature higher than it would otherwise be. The next major
breakthrough was made in 1860 by the British scientist John Tyndall in terms
of measuring the absorption of radiation by different gases. This led to the
remarkable discovery that the most prevalent gases in the atmosphere i.e. oxygen
and nitrogen weren’t absorbing any of the energy at all. Only the minor gases in
the atmosphere, i.e., carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O)
and water vapor, were doing so. These gases are called greenhouse gases (GHG).
The Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius was the first person to calculate the
effects to our global temperature if we burnt enough fossil fuels to double the
amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Presently, studying climate system
is much more advanced due to the advancement in information and
communication technology aided by space technology. 5
Climate Change In this unit we shall study about the factors affecting global warming and its
linkages with climate change. We will also discuss about the probable
consequences and impacts of climate change both at global as well as at national
level. The unit also highlights the threats of climate change to sustainable
development. Finally, we will also discuss about climate change debates
specifically about Kyoto Protocol, the failure of Copenhagen Summit and India’s
Action Plan on Climate Change

1.1 OBJECTIVES
After reading this unit you will be able to:
• define global warming and climate change;
• explain linkages between global warming and climate change;
• describe the adverse impact of human activities on climate change;
• analyze the probable consequences and impact of climate change with a
special reference to developing countries; and
• highlight major climate change related debates that are taking place at
International level and National Action plan on climate change emplemented
in India.

1.2 THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

To have a clear understanding about the science of climate change, we should
know the linkages between global warming and climate change. We should also
know how human activities have been one of the crucial determinants in
aggravating climate change situation.

1.2.1 Global Warming and Climate Change

In simpler terms, climate change may be expressed as any substantial change in
the Earth’s climate that lasts for an extended period of time whereas global
warming refers to a change in climate that causes an increase in the average
temperature of the lower atmosphere. But, according to the Inter Governmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change refers to “any change in climate
over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity”
(IPCC, 2001a). The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCC) in Article 1defined it as: “climate change refers to a change in climate
which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time period” (IPCC, 2001a).
Global warming can have many different causes, but it is most commonly
associated with human interference, specifically the release of excessive amounts
of greenhouse gases. These gases, act like a greenhouse around the earth. This
means that these gases allow the heat from the Sun to enter into the atmosphere,
but do not allow the heat to escape back into space. In other words, the more the
greenhouse gases, the larger the percentage of heat that is trapped inside the
earth’s atmosphere. The earth will not be able exist in its present state i.e. with
life, without the presence of some naturally occurring greenhouse gases (GHG)
because without them, no heat would be trapped in the atmosphere, so the earth
would be extremely cold. Naturally occurring greenhouse gases (not fluorinated
6
gases) are good in naturally occurring amounts; it’s when people start contributing Climate Change —
An Overview
excessive amounts of these that greenhouse gases become a problem. With
excessive greenhouse gas buildup, the earth’s atmosphere warms to unnatural
temperatures.

For better understanding, we need to understand the global carbon cycle. It

involves interaction among the atmosphere, oceans, soils and vegetation and
fossil fuel deposits. The oceans contain about 39,000 Giga tonnes of carbon
(GtC), fossil fuel deposits about 16,000 GtC, soils and vegetation about 2500
GtC, and the atmosphere about 760 GtC. Since 1850, land-use change is estimated
to have released about 136 GtC and fossil fuel combustion about 270 GtC. Of
this, 180 GtC has ended up in the atmosphere, while 110 GtC has been absorbed
by growing vegetation and the remaining by the oceans. It is the increasing
concentration of atmospheric CO2 that is the cause for concern about global
climate change. The combustion of fossil fuels and other human activities are
the primary reasons for increased concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse
gases. Between 1990 and 1999, an estimated 6.3 GtC/year was released due to
the combustion of fossil fuels, and another 1.6 GtC/year was released due to the
burning of forest vegetation. This was offset by the absorption of 2.3 GtC/year
each by growing vegetation and the oceans. This left a balance of 3.3 GtC/ year
in the atmosphere. Controlling the release of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel
combustion, land-use change and the burning of vegetation are therefore obvious
opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and can decrease the
projected rate and magnitude of warming. Future climate change is thus
determined by historic, current and future emissions. Of the six aforementioned
GHGs, CO2 accounted for 63%, methane 24%, nitrous oxide 10%, and the other
gases constitute the remaining 3% of the carbon equivalent emissions in 2000.

Let us understand how various human activities contribute in increasing these

GHGs.

1.2.2 How do Human Activities Contribute to Climate Change?

Different anthropogenic activities lead to emissions of four principal greenhouse
gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and the halocarbons (a group of
gases containing fluorine, chlorine and bromine). These gases accumulate in the
atmosphere and have been increasing with the passage of time. The most
significant aspect about the increases in all of these gases is that they have occurred
in the industrial era which is not more than 300 years old. That is why this small
geological period is named as Anthropocene era. (The term was coined by
ecologist, Eugene F. Stoermer but has been widely popularized by the atmospheric
chemist, Paul Crutzen). This is because of influence of human behaviour on the
earth’s atmosphere in recent centuries is so significant that it has been affecting
the living organisms on the earth.

• Carbon dioxide has increased from fossil fuel use in transportation, building
heating/ cooling and in the manufacture of cement and other goods.
Deforestation releases CO2 and reduces its uptake by plants. Carbon dioxide
is also released in natural processes such as the decay of plant matter.

• Methane has increased as a result of human activities related to agriculture,

natural gas distribution and landfills. Methane is also released from natural
processes that occur, for example, in wetlands.
7
Climate Change • Nitrous oxide is emitted by human activities such as fertilizer use and fossil
fuel burning. Natural processes in soils and the oceans also release N2O.
• Halocarbon gas concentrations have increased primarily due to human
activities. Principal halocarbons include the chlorofluorocarbons (e.g., CFC-
11 and CFC-12), which were used extensively as refrigeration agents and in
other industrial processes before their presence in the atmosphere was found
to cause stratospheric ozone depletion.
• Ozone is a greenhouse gas that is continually produced and destroyed in the
atmosphere by chemical reactions. In the troposphere, human activities have
increased ozone concentrations through the release of gases such as carbon
monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxide, which chemically react to
produce ozone. As mentioned above, halocarbons released by human
activities destroy ozone in the stratosphere and have caused the ozone hole
over Antarctica.
• Water vapour is the most abundant and important greenhouse gas in the
atmosphere. However, human activities have only a small direct influence
on the amount of atmospheric water vapour. Indirectly, humans have the
potential to affect water vapour substantially by changing climate. For
example, a warmer atmosphere contains more water vapour. Human activities
also influence water vapour through CH4 emissions, because CH4 undergoes
chemical destruction in the stratosphere, producing a small amount of water
vapour.
• Aerosols are small particles present in the atmosphere with widely varying
size, concentration and chemical composition. Some aerosols are emitted
directly into the atmosphere while others are formed from emitted
compounds. Aerosols contain both naturally occurring compounds and those
emitted as a result of human activities. Fossil fuel and biomass burning
have increased aerosols containing sulphur compounds, organic compounds
and black carbon. Human activities such as surface mining and industrial
processes have increased dust in the atmosphere. Natural aerosols include
mineral dust released from the surface, sea salt aerosols, biogenic emissions
from the land and oceans and sulphate and dust aerosols produced by volcanic
eruptions.

1.3 GLOBAL CHANGE AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Today, there are lots of discussions on global change issues rather than merely
discussing about climate change. While talking about climate change, there is a
need for a discussion on global change for two reasons:
1) Climate change is one among many global changes that has been affecting
the earth.
2) Climate change has been affecting and has been affected by many of the
global change phenomena.

Global change is a transformation that occurs on a worldwide scale e.g., an

increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere or exhibits sufficient cumulative
effects to have worldwide impact e.g. local species extinction resulting in global
loss of biodiversity. In the past, the main drivers of global change have been
8
solar output, plate tectonics, volcanism, proliferation and abatement of life, Climate Change —
An Overview
resource depletion, changes in Earth’s orbit around the sun and changes in the
tilt of Earth on its axis. There is increasing evidence that, now the main driver of
global change, is the growing human population’s demand for energy, food, goods
and services, and disposal of its waste products. In the last 250 years, global
change has caused climate change, widespread species extinctions, fish-stock
collapse, desertification, ocean acidification, ozone depletion, pollution, and other
large-scale shifts.

More completely, the term “global change” encompasses: population, climate,

the economy, resource use, energy development, transport, communication, land
use and land cover, urbanization, globalization, atmospheric circulation, ocean
circulation, the carbon cycle, the water cycle and other cycles, sea-level rise,
food webs, biological diversity, pollution, and more. The International Human
Dimensions Programme (IHDP) spearheaded a landmark science conference held
in Amsterdam in 2001. The conference entitled, “Challenges of a Changing Earth:
Global Change Open Science Conference”, led to the Amsterdam Declaration
which has rightly stated that, “In addition to the threat of significant climate
change, there is growing concern over the ever-increasing human modification
of other aspects of the global environment and the consequent implications for
human well-being. The basic goods and services provided by the planetary life
support system, for example, food, water, clean air and an environment conducive
to human health, are being affected increasingly by global change.”
Check Your Progress 1
Note: a) Write your answer in about 50 words.
b) Check your progress with possible answers given at the end of the
unit.
1) Explain any four human activities responsible for climate change.
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2) Differentiate between global change and climate change.
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1.4 WHY IS CLIMATE CHANGE A CONCERN?

As mentioned above, the rapid increase in greenhouse gases within such a small
period of human history is a problem because it is changing the climate faster
9
Climate Change than the rate at which many living organisms may be able to adapt. Recent
assessments have confirmed that, due to greenhouse gas emissions, global
temperature has gone up by 10°C since 1850. If these emissions are not seriously
reduced, probability is that global temperatures would rise between 20° and 30°C
over the next 50 years. Scientists are already seeing some of these changes
occurring more quickly than they had expected. According to the IPCC, eleven
of the twelve hottest years occurred between the years 1995 and 2006.

As a consequence of this, the earth’s ice sheets such as Greenland and Antarctica
have begun to melt resulting in extra water which could potentially raise the sea
levels significantly. This rise in sea level would lead to submergence of many
island countries in Pacific, Atlantic and the Indian Ocean. Apart from this, majority
of megacities, popularly coined as Bombay to Boston would also submerge under
sea water. In addition to this, weather can become extreme. This means more
intense major storms, more rain followed by longer and drier droughts posing a
challenge for agriculture and loss of water supplies which is directly related to
livelihood of majority of population in the world and more specifically to the
developing countries. In brief it would be one of the major threats to sustainability
of the earth and its inhabitants.

1.4.1 Climate Change as a Threat to Sustainability

On the eve of India’s independence, Mahatma Gandhi was asked whether he
thought the country could follow the British model of industrial development.
His response was very relevant in today’s context. He said “It took Britain half
the resources of this planet to achieve its prosperity. How many planets will
India require for development?” As far as India is concerned, about 700 million
populations out of 1.1 billion live in rural areas. These populations are directly
dependent upon climate sensitive sectors like agriculture, forests and fisheries
and derive their subsistence and livelihood from natural resources such as water,
biodiversity, grasslands etc. Therefore, increase in temperature would adversely
affect and put pressures in all these sectors and natural resources which are
otherwise under pressure due to various other reasons like over population,
overconsumption etc.

This has been highlighted by Human Development Report 2007/08 and World
Development Report 2010. According to Human Development Report 2007/08
entitled ‘Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World” which
stated that

“Climate change is the defining human development issue of our

generation. All development is ultimately about expanding human
potential and enlarging human freedom. It is about people developing
the capabilities that empower them to make choices and to lead lives that
they value. Climate change threatens to erode human freedoms and limit
choice. It calls into question the Enlightenment principle that human
progress will make the future look better than the past.”

Climate change will undermine international efforts to combat poverty. Seven years
ago, political leaders around the world gathered to set targets for accelerated progress
in human development. The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) defined a new
ambition for 2015. Much has been achieved, though many countries remain off track.
Climate change is hampering efforts to deliver the MDG promise.
10
Looking to the future, the danger is that it will stall and then reverse progress Climate Change —
An Overview
built-up over generations not just in cutting extreme poverty, but in health,
nutrition, education and other areas. The report identified five key areas
through which climate change could stall and then reverse development in
general and human development in specific:
• Agricultural production and food security: Climate change will affect rainfall,
temperature and water availability for agriculture in vulnerable areas. For
example, drought affected areas in Sub-Saharan Africa could expand by
60–90 million hectares, with dry land zones suffering losses of US$26 billion
by 2060 (2003 prices). Other developing regions, including Latin America
and South Asia will also experience loss in agricultural production,
undermining efforts to cut rural poverty. The additional number affected by
malnutrition could rise to 600 million by 2080.
• Water stress and water insecurity: Changed run-off patterns and glacial melt
will add to ecological stress, compromising flows of water for irrigation
and human settlements in the process. An additional 1.8 billion people could
be living in a water scarce environment by 2080. Central Asia, Northern
China and the northern part of South Asia face immense vulnerabilities
associated with the retreat of glaciers in the Himalayas. Seven of Asia’s
great river systems will experience an increase in flows over the short term,
followed by a decline as glaciers melt. The Andean region also faces
imminent water security threats with the collapse of tropical glaciers. Several
countries in already highly water-stressed regions such as the Middle East
could experience deep loss in water availability.
• Rising sea levels and exposure to climate disasters: Sea levels could rise
rapidly with accelerated ice sheet disintegration. Global temperature
increases of 3–4°C could result in 330 million people being permanently or
temporarily displaced through flooding. Over 70 million people in
Bangladesh, 6 million in Lower Egypt and 22 million in Vietnam could be
affected. Small island states in the Caribbean and Pacific could be affected
by catastrophic damage. The warming of seas will also give rise to intense
tropical storms. With an average of 344 million people currently exposed to
tropical cyclones, highly intense storms can have devastating consequences
for a large number of countries. The one billion people currently living in
urban slums on fragile hillsides or flood-prone river banks face acute
vulnerabilities.
• Ecosystems and biodiversity: Climate change is already transforming
ecological systems. Around one-half of the world’s coral reef systems have
suffered ‘bleaching’ as a result of warming seas. Increasing acidity in the
oceans is another long-term threat to marine ecosystems. Ice-based ecologies
have also suffered devastating climate change. While some animal and plant
species will adapt, for many species the pace of climate change is too rapid:
climate systems are moving more rapidly than they can follow. With 3°C of
warming, 20–30 percent of land species could face extinction.
• Human health: Rich countries are already preparing public health systems
to deal with future climate shocks, such as the 2003 European heat wave
and more extreme summer and winter conditions. However, the greatest
health impacts will be felt in developing countries because of high levels of
11
Climate Change
poverty and the limited capacity of public health systems to respond. Major
killer diseases could expand their coverage. For example, an additional 220 –
400 million people could be exposed to malaria, which is a disease that already
claims around 1 million lives annually. Dengue fever is already in evidence at
higher levels of elevation than has previously been the case, especially in Latin
America and parts of East Asia. Climate change could further expand the reach
of the disease (Human Development Report, 2010, p. 9-10).

None of these five separate drivers will operate in isolation. They will interact with
wider social, economic and ecological processes that shape opportunities for human
development. We will discuss all the above mentioned issues in details in the succeeding
three units.

1.5 PROBABLE CONSEQUENCES AND IMPACTS

OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change impact would be uneven in terms of geographical locations,
sectors and socio-economic group. Therefore, some of the major impacts/
consequences of climate change are mentioned for two levels. One is at macro
scale i.e. at global level and the other at micro-level i.e. at national level. Some
of the major observations of Fourth Assessment Report (2007) by IPCC are
given below (cf. O’Brien, K. et al. 2008, p.9).

1.5.1 Observations of Changes in Climate at Global Level

• Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been observed over the
last 50 years.
• Reductions in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions, increases in
the number of warm extremes and a reduction in the number of daily cold
extremes.
• Heat waves have increased in duration beginning in the latter half of the 20th
century.
• Significant increased precipitation in the eastern parts of North and South
America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia.
• Drying has been observed in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa
and parts of southern Asia.
• A substantial increase in heavy precipitation events has been observed.
• Increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about
1970, correlated with increases in tropical sea surface temperatures. There
are also suggestions of increased intense tropical cyclone activity in some
other regions where concerns over data quality are greater.
• More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas,
particularly in the tropics and subtropics since the 1970s.
• Altered distribution of some infectious disease vectors.
Future Climate Change Projections
• Increased warming with the greatest temperature increases in high northern
12 latitudes, with less warming over the southern oceans and North Atlantic.
• More frequent, intense and longer lasting heat waves. Climate Change —
An Overview
• An intensification and expansion of wildfires is likely globally.
• Fewer, shorter, less intense cold spells/cold extremes in winter.
• Increased precipitation in high latitudes, and decreases in most subtropical land
regions.
• More heavy precipitation events.
• Increased risk of flooding (intense and heavy rainfall coupled with high runoff.
• Increases in areas affected by droughts.
• Sea level is expected to continue to rise over the next several decades.
• More severe tropical cyclones, with greater wind speeds and more intense
precipitation.
• Widespread increase in thaw depth in most permafrost regions.

1.5.2 India-National Level

The future impacts of climate change, identified by the Government of India’s
National Communications (NATCOM) in 2004 include:
• Decreased snow cover, affecting snow-fed and glacial systems such as the
Ganges and Brahmaputra. 70% of the summer flow of the Ganges comes
from melt water
• Erratic monsoon with serious effects on rain-fed agriculture, peninsular rivers,
water and power supply
• Drop in wheat production by 4-5 million tonnes, with even a 1ºC rise in
temperature
• Rising sea levels causing displacement along one of the most densely
populated coastlines in the world, threatened freshwater sources and
mangrove ecosystems
• Increased frequency and intensity of floods. Increased vulnerability of people
in coastal, arid and semi-arid zones of the country
• Studies indicate that over 50% of India’s forests are likely to experience
shift in forest types, adversely impacting associated biodiversity, regional
climate dynamics as well as livelihoods based on forest products.
Indian Network for Climate Change Analysis (INCCA) in the recently
released report titled “Climate Change and India: A 4x4 Assessment - A
Sectoral and Regional Analysis for 2030s” assess differential impacts on
the basis of observed climate change and climate change projections for
the year 2030s on selected sectors such as water resources, agriculture,
forests and human health of selected four distinct geo-ecological regions
of India that are sensitive to climate change. These regions are the Himalayan
region, North-Eastern region, Western Ghats and Coastal regions. According
to the report “The choice of the sectors and regions is in conformity with
the significance and importance of the climate sensitive sectors of the
economy that cover the well being and livelihoods of the large population
residing in these regions” (INCCA 2010, p.12). But the complete extent
and level of climate change impacts on India are still to be studied because
13
Climate Change
it is very diverse and complex in nature. This is because vulnerability to
climate change increases due to “low adaptive capacity to withstand the
adverse impacts of climate change due to high dependence of the majority
of the population on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and forestry,
poor infrastructure facilities, weak institutional mechanisms and lack of
financial resources” (Shukla et al. 2003, p.13).
Check Your Progress 2
Note: a) Write your answer in about 50 words.
b) Check your progress with possible answers given at the end of the unit.
1) Describe any four likely impacts of climate change on India.
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2) How can we say that climate change is a threat to sustainability of human
development? Give any two arguments.
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1.6 CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATES

There are so many debates and developments as far as climate change is concerned
since Rio Earth Summit, 1992. But, we would discuss two important developments
i.e. Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Summit.

1.6.1 Kyoto Protocol

It’s a United Nations sponsored agreement among nations to reduce their
greenhouse gas emissions. This protocol emerged from the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change which was signed by almost all
the nations which attended Rio Earth Summit, 1992. The Framework pledges
to stabilize GHG concentrations “at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with climate system.” The Protocol was initially
adopted on 11th December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan and entered into force on
14
16th February 2005. As of November 2009, 187 states have signed and ratified the Climate Change —
An Overview
protocol. The most notable non-member of the Protocol is the United States, which is
a signatory of UNFCCC and was responsible for 36.1% of the 1990 emission levels.

Under the Protocol, 37 industrialized countries (called “Annex I countries”)

commit themselves to a reduction of four greenhouse gases (GHG) i.e.
carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) and two groups
of gases i.e. hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons produced by them,
and all member countries give general commitments. Annex I countries
agreed to reduce their collective greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% from
the 1990 level. Emission limits do not include emissions by international
aviation and shipping, but are in addition to the industrial gases,
chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which are dealt with under the 1987 Montreal
Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The benchmark 1990
emission levels were accepted by the Conference of the Parties of UNFCCC
(decision 2/CP.3) were the values of “global warming potential” calculated
for the IPCC Second Assessment Report. These figures are used for
converting the various greenhouse gas emissions into comparable CO2
equivalents when computing overall sources and sinks.

The biggest question is that ‘Will Kyoto make any difference?’ But it appears that if
any of the big economies will meet their Kyoto targets by 2012. Even if they did, it
would only make a tiny dent in the world’s ever increasing output of GHG’s. Therefore,
century long lifespan of atmospheric CO2 means that the planet is already committed
to a substantial amount of greenhouse warming. Even if we turn off every fuel-burning
machine on earth tomorrow, climate modelers tell us that the world would warm at
least another 0.5oC as oceans slowly release the heat that they have collected in
recent decades. The bottom line is that we cannot bring down our greenhouse gas
emissions in check until changes in technology and lifestyle enable us to pull us back
far beyond our current emission levels. We need to find some safe methods to remove
enormous amounts of carbon or both.

1.6.2 Copenhagen Summit

The United Nations Climate Change Conference 2009, commonly known as the
Copenhagen Summit, was held at Copenhagen, Denmark, from 7th - 18th
December. According to the Bali Road Map, a framework for climate change
mitigation beyond 2012 was to be agreed there. The Copenhagen Accord was
drafted by the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa on December 18th, and
judged a “meaningful agreement” by the United States government. It was “taken
note of”, but not “adopted”, in a debate of all the participating countries the next
day, and it was not passed unanimously. The document recognized that climate
change is one of the greatest challenges of the present day and that actions should
be taken to keep any temperature increases to below 2°C. The document is not
legally binding and does not contain any legally binding commitment for reducing
CO2 emissions. With no firm target for limiting the global temperature rise, no
commitment to a legal treaty and no target year for peaking emissions, countries
most vulnerable to climate impacts have not got the deal they wanted.

Early on Saturday 19th December, delegates approved a motion to “take note of

the Copenhagen Accord of December 18th, 2009”. This was due to the opposition
of countries such as Bolivia, Venezuela, Sudan and Tuvalu who registered their
15
Climate Change opposition to both the targets and process by which the Copenhagen Accord was
reached. The accord recognizes the scientific case for keeping temperature rises below
2°C, but does not contain commitments for reduced emissions that would be necessary
to achieve that aim. One part of the agreement pledges US$ 30 billion to the developing
world over the next three years, rising to US$100 billion per year by 2020, to help
poor countries adapt to climate change. Earlier proposals, which would have aimed
to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C and cut CO2 emissions by 80% by 2050, were
dropped. The Accord also favors developed countries’ paying developing countries
to reduce emissions and degradation, known as “REDD”.

Despite widely held expectations that the Copenhagen summit would produce a legally
binding treaty, the conference was plagued by negotiating deadlock and the
“Copenhagen Accord” is not legally enforceable. The Copenhagen Accord asked
countries to submit emissions targets by the end of January 2010, and paves the way
for further discussions to occur at the 2010 UN climate change conference in Mexico.
By early February, 67 countries had registered their targets. Countries such as India
and Association of Island States made clear that they believed that Copenhagen Accord
could not replace negotiations within the UNFCCC. Other commentators consider
that “the future of the UN’s role in international climate deals is now in doubt.” Indian
journalist Praful Bidwai puts the blame on both developed and a few developing
countries such as India, arguing that the “Copenhagen Accord is an illegitimate, ill-
conceived, collusive deal between a handful of countries that are some of the world’s
greatest present and future emitters.” He argues that India’s policy is driven by elites
determined to maintain high-consumer lifestyles which will have devastating effects for
the vast majority of India’s poor.

1.7 NATIONAL ACTION PLAN ON CLIMATE

CHANGE
India released its National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) on
30th June 2008. The entire action plan advocates broadly two pronged
strategy. Firstly, to develop adaptation to climate change and secondly further
enhancement of the ecological sustainability of India’s development path.
In other words, the NAPCC outlines a strategy by which India will adapt to
climate change, while maintaining a high growth rate, protecting poor and
vulnerable sections of society and achieving national growth objectives.
NAPCC proposed eight missions and 24 initiatives to minimize the climate
change effects. These initiatives are aimed at promoting technologies and
actions in the sectors pertaining to energy generation, transport, renewable
energy, disaster management and capacity building etc. However, detailed
action plans for each mission, and any clear targets are missing from the
report. The real challenge is to implement these below mentioned eight
missions into actions at diverse grass root level situations in India. The
proposed eight missions are as follows:
• National Solar Mission
• National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency
• National Mission on Sustainable Habitat
• National Water Mission
16
• National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem Climate Change —
An Overview
• National Mission for a “Green India”
• National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture
• National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change
As our country is full of diversity, climate change would have differential impacts on
different geo-ecological conditions. Therefore, it is pertinent to have different action
plan for different regions apart from national level missions. In this context, attempt
has been made by different states to develop state level climate change action plan.
But if we analyze all these state plans, it has been found that it has still remains as a
document and nothing significant has been implemented.

State Level Action Plans on Climate Change in India

The Prime minister in his address to Ministers of Environment and Forest from
various states on 18th August 2009 called upon all the states to prepare a State
level Action Plan on Climate Change consistent with the strategy outlined in the
NAPCC. The State level plans will enable communities and ecosystems to adapt
to climate change effectively and help to achieve the objectives of NAPCC.
Accordingly, a programme for the preparation of state level plans has been
initiated. Some of the states have already responded and initiated positive actions.
Government of Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka has drawn up a programme
and sought technical assistance and funding from the World Bank for the projected
activities. Government of Delhi has prepared an action plan outlining the activities
which was launched in November 2009. Kerala Government has constituted a
steering committee to oversee the preparation of Action Plan. Gujarat has taken
proactive steps to set up a dedicated department for climate change and prepare
its action plan. Government of Orissa has also developed a draft of Action Plan
and presently circulated it widely for feedback. Similarly Tamil Nadu Government
has also initiated the process of preparation of Action Plan (Adapted from Rashmi,
R. R. & Satapathy, S. (2010) Facing the Challenge, Yojana, Vol. 54, p. 9-10).

Check Your Progress 3

Note: a) Write your answer in about 50 words.
b) Check your progress with possible answers given at the end of the unit.
1) Why is there uncertainty in climate change prediction? Explain any two
factors responsible for the uncertainties.
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17
Climate Change
2) What is Kyoto Protocol? Describe any four provisions/agreements of Kyoto
Protocol.
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1.8 LET US SUM UP

• Climate change refers to a change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly
to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which
is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time period.
• Various anthropogenic activities lead to emissions of four principal greenhouse
gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and the halocarbons. These gases
accumulate in the atmosphere and have increased with the passage of time.
• The increase in greenhouse gases within a small period of human history is a
problem since it has adverse and differential impacts on different sectors and
region. Some of the adverse impacts would be: melting of ice cap, rise in sea
level, submergence of many island countries and densely populated coastal areas.
Also weather can become more extreme which would impact agriculture. In
brief it would be one of the major threats to sustainability of the earth and its
inhabitants.
• Climate change threatens to erode human freedoms and limit choice. Climate
change is hampering efforts to deliver the MDG promise. Unfortunately,
despite of various efforts at international level, till now, no consensus has
emerged and there are strong differences among developed and developing
countries.
• To address the global problem, each country has to play a significant role. India
released its National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) on 30th
June 2008. The entire action plan advocates broadly two pronged strategy.
Firstly, to develop adaptation to climate change and secondly further
enhancement of the ecological sustainability of India’s development path.
NAPCC proposed eight missions and 24 initiatives to minimize the climate
change effects. The real challenge is to implement these eight missions into
actions at diverse grass root level situations in India.

1.9 KEY WORDS

Anthropogenic Activities : The activities that are exclusively conducted or
created by human beings.
Climate Change : It refers to a change in climate which is attributed
directly or indirectly to human activity that alters
the composition of the global atmosphere and
18
 which is in addition to natural climate variability Climate Change —
An Overview
observed over comparable time period.
Global Change : Global change is a transformation that occurs on
a world-wide scale or exhibits sufficient
cumulative effects to have world-wide impact.
Global Warming : It refers to a change in climate that causes an increase
in the average temperature of the lower atmosphere.
Kyoto Protocol : It is a United Nations sponsored agreement among
nations to reduce their Green House Gases
emissions.

1.10 REFERENCES AND FURTHER SUGGESTED

READINGS
INCCA. 2010. Climate Change and India: A 4x4 Assessment - A Sectoral and
Regional Analysis for 2030’s. Ministry of Environment and Forest, Government
of India, New Delhi.
van der Linden, Hanson, C. E. (eds.) 2007. IPCC ‘Summary for Policy Makers’.
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of
Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, UK: Cambridge University Press.
O’Brien, G., O´Keefe, P., Meena, H., Rose, J., and Wilson, L. 2008. Climate
adaptation from a poverty perspective. Climate Policy, 8 (2), 194-201.
Shukla, P. R., Subodh, K. S., Ravindranath, N. H., Garg, A. and Bhattacharya, S.
2003. Climate Change and India: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation,
Hyderabad: University Press (India) Pvt. Ltd.
UNDP. 2007. “Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided
World”. Human Development Report 2007/08 New York: UNDP.
World Bank. 2010. World Development Report 2010 titled “Climate Change
and Development”. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

1.11 KEY TO CHECK YOUR PROGRESS

Check Your Progress 1
1) Your answer must include the following points:
• Release of carbon dioxide by burning fossil fuel
• Release of methane through human activities
• Nitrous oxide emitted by human activities
• Release of chlorofluorocarbons
2) Your answer must include the following points:
• Global change is a transformation that occurs on a worldwide scale or
exhibits sufficient cumulative effects to have worldwide impact e.g.
local species extinction resulting in global loss of biodiversity.
19
Climate Change • Climate change is one among many global changes that has been affecting
the earth.
Check Your Progress 2
1) Your answer must include the following points:
Some of the likely impacts of climate change on India are:
• Decrease in snow cover
• Erratic monsoon
• Drop in wheat production
• Rising sea levels
• Increased frequency and intensity of floods
• Shift in forest types, adversely impacting associated biodiversity, regional
climate dynamics as well as livelihoods based on forest products
2) Your answer must include the following points:
• Climate change threatens to erode human freedoms and limit choice. It
calls into question the Enlightenment principle that human progress
will make the future look better than the past.
• Climate change is hampering efforts to deliver the MDG promise.
Looking to the future, the danger is that it will stall and then reverse
progress built-up over generations not just in cutting extreme poverty,
but in health, nutrition, education and other areas.
Check Your Progress 3
1) Your answer must include the following points:
• As our country is full of diversity, climate change would have differential
impacts on different geo-ecological conditions.
• Therefore, it is pertinent to have different action plan for different regions
apart from national level missions.
2) Your answer must include the following points:
• It is a United Nations sponsored agreement among nations to reduce
their green house gases emission.
• The provisions are: (i) under the Protocol, 37 industrialized countries
commit themselves to a reduction of four greenhouse gases (GHG) i.e.
carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) and two
groups of gases i.e. hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons produced
by them, and all member countries give general commitments. (ii) Annex
I countries agreed to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2%
from the 1990 level.

20
 Climate Change —
UNIT 2 CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL An Overview

RESOURCE SYSTEM

Structure
2.0 Introduction
2.1 Objectives
2.2 Exploitation of Natural Resources and its Impact
2.3 Climate Change and Its Impact on Natural Resources
2.3.1 Climate Change Impact on Water Resources
2.3.2 Climate Change Impact on Forest Resources
2.3.3 Climate Change Impact on Energy Resources
2.3.4 Climate Change Impact on other Natural Resources
2.4 Reviving and Sustaining Natural Resources
2.5 Let Us Sum Up
2.6 Key Words
2.7 References and Further Suggested Readings
2.8 Key to Check Your Progress

2.0 INTRODUCTION
In the previous unit, we have discussed about the impacts of climate change on
various elements of the earth. Natural resources are one of the important elements.
This is significant because survival of life on the earth’s surface depends on
these precious resources. These natural resources exist on the earth since its
inception. The ideal combination of these resources gave birth to living organisms.
During that period, natural resources were plenty and the resource system had
synergic interaction amongst its subsystems. These synergies continued till recent
time. But, today, the situation is not the same. Do you know why? Some of the
major factors responsible for today’s situation are growing population, human
greed and overconsumption life styles etc. But, most of the natural resources
that have come into existence over million years are fixed. With further intensive
anthropogenic activities, either the natural resources have been getting polluted
or reduced beyond the carrying capacity. As a result, nature started giving negative
results to life on the earth. One of the best examples is human induced climate
change.

In this unit, we will define and classify natural resources. We shall also discuss
about the impact of climate change on various natural resources specifically
water, forest and energy resources. In the end, we would discuss briefly about
the strategies required for sustenance of natural resources that is essential for
survival of earth and its life.

2.1 OBJECTIVES
After reading this unit you will be able to:
• describe the impact of exploitation of natural resources on environment;
21
Climate Change • analyze the relationship between the use of natural resources and climate change;
• explain the impact of climate change on various natural resources especially on
water, forest and energy; and
• highlight the significance of reviving and sustaining natural resources.

2.2 EXPLOITATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES

AND ITS IMPACT
Throughout human history, natural resources have been exploited to sustain
growing human populations. Over the last few decades, rising economic growth
rates in most developing countries have contributed to increasing levels of
exploitation of natural resources and environment degradation, which remains
unchecked, could have detrimental effects on future growth patterns. The problem
of natural resource exploitation is however not limited to only developing
countries but also is a matter of concern for developed countries. In most countries,
economic development has not been environmentally sustainable. As theory
suggests the inherent problem with all natural resources is that they are mostly
either open access or common property resources and hence the cause for
mismanagement or exploitation. Often the exploitation of nature has been done
in an unsustainable manner, which is causing an increasing concern. This is
because unsustainable exploitation of natural resource ultimately threatens human
existence. A draft discussion paper on Natural Resource Management developed
by the World Bank Group (April, 2000) identified three persistent concerns,
particularly in the context of developing countries which are as follows:
• Renewable resources are utilized beyond their regenerative capacity, which
is especially troubling for the poor, whose resource-base tends to be narrow
and less easily shifted geographically and sectorally.
• Non-renewable resources are depleted with insufficient savings in man-made,
human, or social capital, and with minor benefits directed specifically to
the poor.
• The “sink” capacity of the environment is overburdened by pollution, which
in turn damages human health and ecosystem functions. The poorest
frequently pay the human price for this development.
But, environmental degradation as a consequence of resource exploitation is not
only restricted to developing countries; rather it is now a global phenomenon.
This is evident from the increasing levels of deforestation, polluted water, air
and land resources. According to the United Nations data, 1.1 billion people live
without clean drinking water; 13 million hectares of the world’s forests are being
lost each year; carbon dioxide, one of the major green house gases that contributes
to the global warming phenomenon, is 27 % higher than at any point in 650,000
years of present history. According to IPCC projection, atmospheric carbon
dioxide levels could reach 450-550 ppm by 2050. As a result of the above
mentioned phenomena, the world’s ecosystems have deteriorated by about 33%
over the last 30 years as human exploitation of natural resources has surged by
50% in the same period. If all people in the world continue to consume resources
and emit carbon dioxide at such a rapid rate, then the very existence of mankind
would become difficult in the years to come.

22
 Climate Change and
2.3 CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON Natural Resource System

NATURAL RESOURCES
In the past 50 years, human activity has disturbed our ecosystems and natural
resources more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period in history,
largely to meet the demand for food, clothing and shelter. Apart from the above
mentioned factors due to the burning of fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions,
the global temperature has risen by 1o C since 1850. If these emissions are not
seriously reduced, there will be more than a 75% probability that global
temperature will rise between 2o and 3o C over the next 50 years. There is robust
scientific consensus that human-induced climate change is occurring but one
should not forget that current observational capabilities are inadequate to fully
understand and address the future scope and rate of change in all ecological
sectors. Additionally, the complex interactions between change agents such as
climate, land use alteration, and species invasion create dynamics that confound
simple causal relationships and will severely complicate the development and
assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Even under the most optimistic CO2 emission scenarios, important changes in
sea level, regional temperatures and precipitation patterns will have profound
effects on natural resources and the ecosystem. Management of water resources
will become more challenging. Increased incidence of disturbances such as forest
fires, insect outbreaks, severe storms, and drought will command public attention
and would place increasing demands on management resources. Ecosystems are
likely to be pushed increasingly into alternate states with the possible breakdown
of traditional species relationships, such as pollinator/plant and predator/prey
interactions, adding additional stresses and potential for system failures. Some
agricultural and forest systems may experience near-term productivity increases,
but over the long term, many such systems are likely to experience overall
decreases in productivity that could result in economic losses and diminished
ecosystem services desperately resulting in the need for new management regimes
for preserving our natural resource base.
Check Your Progress 1
Note: a) Use the space given below for your answer.
b) Compare your answers with those given at the end of the unit.
1) Explain briefly the meaning of natural resources.
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2) Describe the two major types of natural resources with examples
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23
Climate Change 3) Describe the three concerns related to natural resource management in the
developing countries
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As mentioned in the previous section, climate change has affected all the natural
resources in a major way. Climate change would have common but differentiated
impacts in different geographical regions. If this trend continues, it would put a
question mark on the sustainability of the life saving resources in specific and
human society and earth in general. Therefore, in the following sub-sections an
attempt has been made to analyze the climate change impact on some of the
major natural resources i.e. water, forest, energy and eco-system services and
also some of the adaptive measures are discussed for sustenance of these vital
natural resources.

2.3.1 Climate Change Impact on Water Resources

Water is the most precious natural resource not only for the survival of life on
the earth surface but also an essential ingredient for every type of economic
activity ranging from farming to various industries. That is why water is probably
one of the most intensely contested natural resources. Apart from that there is a
clear cut disparity between rich and poor in terms of quality and quantity both in
water abundant and scarce region. The situation get worsen in the regions of water
scarcity where “the most powerful user groups make sure that their share is not
diminished, less powerful group may have to settle for less and the poor get the
worst deal of all” (Commission on Climate Change and Development p.49). Climate
plays a very decisive factor in water resource availability of a country.

Generally there are five sources from which water is available. These sources
are surface running water, underground water, stored water in terms snow and
ice in the glaciers, rain water and sea water. Out of these, we have already
overexploited the first three categories of water. Now time has come, we have to
develop low cost technology to convert sea water to fresh water and utilize
maximum rain water that flows down to the sea and oceans without being utilized.
There is also need for sustainable use of waste water after treating them for reuse.
Until unless attention has been paid to look for alternatives in terms of use of
waste water, conservation and harvesting of rain water and deriving fresh water
from saline water of sea and ocean, time is not very far that the next major war
among nations and among states within a nation would take place due to water.

As far as India is concerned, our major source of water is from monsoons. We

derive maximum rainfall from the South West monsoon that spans between June
to September, and the rest from the north-east monsoon that prevails between
October and November. India shares about 16 per cent of the global population
but it has only 4 per cent of the total water resource. The irrigation sector with 83
percent of use is the main consumer of water. Based on the 1991 Census, the per
24
capita availability of water works is about 1, 967 m3. Due to various constraints of
topography, and uneven distribution of resources over space and time, it has Climate Change and
Natural Resource System
been estimated that only about 1,122 km3 of its total potential can be put to beneficial
use, of which 690 km3 is surface water resources. Further, about 40 percent of the
utilizable surface water resources are presently in the Ganga- Brahmaputra-Meghna
system. In a majority of river basins, the present utilization is significantly high and is in
the range of 50 to 95% of utilizable surface resources. However, in rivers such as the
Narmada and Mahanadi, the percentage utilization is quite low. The corresponding
values for these basins are 23% and 34%, respectively (NATCOM Final Report
2004, p).

On the other hand, the ground water is another major component of the total available
water resources. In the coming years the ground water utilization is likely to increase
manifold for the expansion of irrigated agriculture and to achieve national targets of
food production. Although the ground water is an annually replenishable resource, its
availability is non-uniform in space and time. According to the Ministry of Water
Resources, the water availability in India may be able to meet the requirements till the
year 2050, through integrated water management plans.

According to some projections, the population of India may be as high as 1800 million
in 2050. When compared with the present availability of - 500 km3/yr, the water
availability around 2050 needs to be almost trebled. Various options have been
considered in quantitative terms as possible sources to augment the anticipated deficit.
These include: (i) conservation of water through rainwater harvesting and groundwater
recharge, (ii) recycling and reuse of municipal and industrial wastewater, (iii) utilizing
increased return flow from irrigation, (iv) inter-basin transfer and (v) virtual water
(Gupta & Deshpande 2004, p. 1223).

Climate change has aggravated water problems in the following ways

• Rainfall, runoff, stream flow, ground water recharge, water availability from
changes in annual average.
• Variability and extremes, floods and droughts, more intense and more
frequent storms.
• Temperature – resulting in aridity, increasing evaporation and irrigation water
demand, glacier and snow melt, loss of storage, change in water quality.
• Sea level changes – resulting in impacts of estuaries, deltas and sea water
intrusion into ground water aquifers.
• Plant water use efficiency from changes in atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2)
concentration.
Climate change will affect water resources through its impact on the quantity,
variability, timing, form, and intensity of precipitation. Relatively small climatic
changes can cause large water resource problems, particularly in arid and semi-
arid regions of India. Apart from monsoon rains, India uses perennial rivers,
which originate and depend on glacial melt-waters in the Hindukush and
Himalayan ranges. Since the melting season coincides with the summer monsoon
season, any intensification of the monsoon is likely to contribute to flood disasters
in the Himalayan catchments. Rising temperatures will also contribute to the
raising of the snowline, reducing the capacity of this natural reservoir, and
increasing the risk of flash floods during the wet season. Luni, the west flowing
river of Kutchh and Saurastra occupying about one-fourths of the area of Gujarat
25
Climate Change and 60 per cent of the area of Rajasthan are likely to experience acute physical water
scarce conditions. The river basins of Mahi, Pennar, Sabarmati and Tapi are likely to
experience constant water scarcities and shortage. The river basins of Cauvery, Ganga,
Narmada and Krishna are likely to experience seasonal or regular water-stressed
conditions. On the other hand it is apparent that the projected climate change leading
to global warming, sea-level rise and melting of glaciers will disturb the water balance
in different parts of India and the quality of ground water along the coastal track.
Possible effects of climate change on ground water are reduced ground water recharge
due to changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration, increased saline intrusion of
coastal and island aquifers due to rising sea levels and poor groundwater quality in
alluvial aquifers due to possible increase of flood events.

Adaptive Practices in Water Management at different levels

If we want to sustain water resources (both in terms of quantity and quality) for survival
of life on the earth, there is a strong need for concerted efforts at all levels i.e. community
to international levels. In this regard it is very crucial to start various adaptation strategies
at all levels. To start with, there is a strong need to make effort at community level. The
challenges at community level are to provide support to develop localized water
resources practices that would help in adapting to climate variability and changes.
Some of the major adaptive practices ought to be developed at community level are
as follows:
• Development of rainfed agriculture systems those are easy to operate and maintain
locally.
• Improved management of soil moisture in rainfed areas.
• Increased investment in water harvesting, small storage and supplementary irrigation
schemes.
• Small community – based irrigation schemes;
• Development of water supply to meet the needs of multiple and diverse water
users; and
• Other actions such as demand management, conjunctive surface and ground water
management, payments for environmental services and so on.
National Level
• Integrate climate variability and climate change in water policy framework;
• Encourage an integrated approach in water management planning that cuts across
land, agriculture and mining sectors, taking into account water productivities as a
basis for reallocations;
• Diversify economies and incomes;
• Support the decentralization of water resources management (or focus on
catchments and river basins)
• Ensure that climate risk information is available and used to inform water planning
strategies; and
• Empower communities to engage with local and national governments
to help meet their water needs.(Commission on Climate Change and
Development, p.51)

26
2.3.2 Climate Change Impact on Forest Resources Climate Change and
Natural Resource System
Forest covers around 30 percent of the world’s land surface and forest ecosystem
including their soil store approximately 1200 giga tonnes of carbon dioxide which
is considerably more than what is present in the atmosphere (around 762 giga
tonnes of carbon dioxide). Forest are a source of fuel and fodder for rural people,
an industrial input for a growing economy, a habitat for thousands of plant and
animal species, a sink for CO2 emissions, a protective cover for its soils and a
natural habitat enhancing the biodiversity of predominantly managed agricultural
and urban landscapes. They also have a role to play in natural resource protection
through flood alleviation, improvement of water quality and soil erosion control.
Like all natural system forest are also vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. It
has also been rightly recognized that “forests have a unique ability to simultaneously
reduce green house gas emissions, capture carbon and lessen the vulnerability of
people and ecosystem to climate change” (cf. Commission on Climate Change
and Development, p.54).
Climate change is threatening the health of forests around the world. As
temperatures rise, weather patterns and the availability of water also change, altering
the ability of trees to survive. This could force forest types to shift their ranges
faster than they may be able to. Although more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
may encourage tree growth, the negative impacts of climate change are expected
to far outweigh any benefits.
In India presently, 23% of the total land area is under forest and tree cover. A
preliminary assessment based on regional climate model projections for India have
showed shifts in forest boundary, changes in species-assemblage or forest types,
changes in NPP, possible forest die-back in the transient phase, and potential loss
or change in biodiversity. These impacts on forests will have adverse socio-
economic implications for forest dependent communities and the national economy.
The impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems are likely to be long term and
irreversible. Hence there is a need for developing and implementing adaptation
strategies to minimize the adverse impacts. Further, there is a need to study and
identify the forest policies, programmes and silvicultural practices that contribute
to vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change.

Socio-economic and climate change impacts on Forest Ecosystems in

India
Nearly 200,000 villages in India are situated in or on the fringe of forests.
Further, about 200 million people depend on forests for their livelihood, directly
or indirectly. Forest ecosystems in India are already subjected to socio-
economic pressures leading to forest degradation and loss, with adverse impacts
on the livelihoods of forest dependent communities. Climate change will be an
additional pressure on forests, affecting biodiversity as well as biomass
production. According to the assessment of projected climate impacts on
forests, significant changes in the forest boundary of different forest biomes as
well as biodiversity are projected. However, during the transient phase, large-
scale forest die-back may occur. This may affect the production and supply of
non-timber forest products to the forest dependent communities, affecting their
livelihoods. In the transient phase, there could be an increased supply of timber,
due to forest die-back, depreciating timber prices.
Source: India’s Initial National Communication Final Report, Chapter 3, p 102.
27
Climate Change Indian Network for Climate Change Analysis (INCCA) in the recently released
report titled “Climate Change and India: A 4x4 Assessment - A Sectoral and
Regional Analysis for 2030s” reports that “the forest ecosystems of the Himalayan
eco-region are the most vulnerable to climate change. The coastal regions and
Western Ghats are moderately vulnerable to climate change. It is also inferred
that forests in the North-Eastern region are projected to be minimally impacted
by climate change in the short term. It can be concluded that forests of the four
eco-sensitive regions are vulnerable to projected climate change in the short to
medium term, even under a moderate climate change scenario” (INCCA 2010,
p.98-99).

Major Factors that Enhance Forest Vulnerability to Climate Change

Major practices that potentially contribute to enhancing the vulnerability of forest
ecosystems to climate change are as follows:
• Forest fragmentation leading to loss of biodiversity by hampering migration
of species.
• Forest degradation leading to loss of biodiversity, affecting forest regeneration.
• Dominance of monoculture species under afforestation increase vulnerability
to fire, pests, etc.
• Absence of fire protection and management practices enhance vulnerability
to fire.
• Non-sustainable extraction of timber, fuel wood and NTFPs leading to
degradation of forests, fragmentation of forests and affecting shift of forest
boundaries and regeneration of plant species.
• Inadequate fuel wood conservation programmes increases pressure on forests,
leading to degradation.
• Inadequate and less-effective implementation of the different conservation
programmes leading to forest degradation. (India’s Initial National
Communication Final Report, Chapter 3, p102).
Generally, a mitigation strategy popularly known as ‘Reducing Emission from
Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)’ was propounded by European Union
and USA, in which credits have been given for verified emissions reductions against
a baseline
• Ensure that forest-related action for climate change mitigation and adaptation
complement and give impetus to sustainable development;
• Tackle the main drivers of deforestation, which mostly lie outside forest sector;
• Recognize and remove barriers to transparent, inclusive and accountable forest
governance;
• Respect and support local processes that clarify and strengthen tenure,
property and carbon rights;
• Support balanced approach to mitigation and adaptation strategies in both
forest-rich and forest poor countries; and
• Provide substantial additional funding to build the capacity of countries,
communities and forest managers and owners to participate in forest related
climate change mitigation and adaptation initiatives (Commission on Climate
Change and Development, p.54).
28
Check Your Progress 2 Climate Change and
Natural Resource System
Note: a) Use the space given below for your answer.
b) Compare your answers with those given at the end of the unit.
1) How has climate change affected water resources?
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
2) Briefly elaborate the impact of climate change on different natural resources.
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................

2.3.3 Climate Change Impact on Energy Resources

The energy sector is highly dependent on temperature conditions and this is
probably, where climate change could have very strong direct impacts. The regional
temperature would change significantly, thus affecting the future energy consumption
behaviour. In the residential and building sector, a major energy demand is expected
to be for space cooling and heating. Air conditioning and refrigeration load is
closely related to the ambient air temperature and will thus have a direct relation
to temperature increase. Temperature increase in the northern mountainous region,
where space heating in winter is required, might result in some saving in heat
energy. This will be more than compensated by increased energy requirement for
space cooling in the plains, thus resulting in a net increase. Higher income levels
will further increase demands for air-conditioning. There are many energy sources
for space heating, including coal, biomass and electricity. However, the main source
of energy for cooling is electricity. A higher demand for air conditioning will thus
result in an increased electricity demand. Similar to the residential sector, the
commercial and industrial sector will also experience an increased load for air-
conditioning and refrigeration due to temperature rise.

Many sectors affected by climate change will have indirect impacts on the
energy sector. A major sector that causes indirect impact on energy is
agriculture. Agriculture is very sensitive to any type of climate change. Climate
change in India will result in temperature rise and a changing precipitation
pattern. The evaporation rate is also expected to rise because of the
temperature increase. This may be countered by increase in rainfall and
humidity in some regions. All these put together will affect the water
requirement for agriculture which will be greater, resulting in a higher demand
of energy for irrigation. The residential water demand is also expected to
29
Climate Change increase, which would in turn affect the energy required for the water supply
system.

Additional electricity generation due to climate change, over and above the
electricity generation in 2100, is estimated to be 64 TWh, which is 1.5 per cent of
the reference scenario generation for the same year. The domination of coal-
based generation continues due to the reliance on domestic resources for energy
supply and a major share of this added generation requirement is taken up by the
coal-based generation. The economic linkages with coal are also very strong due
to the large infrastructure associated with the mining industry, coal transportation
network, generation equipment manufacturers, etc., and coal remains competitive
in the long run.

As renewable technologies including hydro, wind, cogeneration, other biomass

technologies, solar and geothermal, are expected to reach plateau by this time,
fuel-mix changes in the energy sector would largely depend on development of
nuclear power and new sources of energy such as fuel cells, fusion etc. over a
period of time.

2.3.4 Climate Change Impact on other Natural Resources

The natural ecosystems have also been subject to exploitation and alteration by
humans for several thousand years, and thus only a small fraction of these probably
remain in a pristine state. Nevertheless, about one-fifth to one fourth of the
geographical area still comprises relatively ‘natural’ ecosystems; of this, forests
occupy the major area. The non-forest ecosystems include mainly the wetlands
including mangrove forests and coral reefs and the grasslands.

The natural wetland ecosystems of India include the marine ecosystems such as
the coral reefs; coastal ecosystems such as the mangroves; and inland freshwater
ecosystems such as rivers, lakes and marshes. Among this, the coastal wetlands
play an important role in the economy of this region, especially in fisheries. The
mangroves and the coral reefs are important nurseries for several fishes, prawns
and crabs. Of the annual fish catch of about 5.6 Mt, about half is from marine
fisheries; the coral reefs and associated shelves and lagoons alone have the potential
for about 10% of the total marine fish yields. Climate change impacts on the
coastal wetlands would thus have serious consequences for the livelihoods of
people, as well as the integrity of the coastal environment.

The impacts of climate change on inland fresh water ecosystem would be complex
issues dependent on several variables, including temperature increase, rate of
evaporation, changes in precipitation of the catchments, changes in nutrient cycling
and the responses of a variety of aquatic species. Although tropical lakes are less
likely to be impacted by climate change as compared to temperate lakes, an
increase in temperature would alter the thermal cycles of lakes, oxygen solubility
and other compounds, and affect the ecosystem. In high-altitude lakes an increased
temperature would result in the loss of winter ice cover; this would cause a major
change in the seasonal cycle and species composition of the lake. Reduced oxygen
concentration could alter community structure, characterized by fewer species,
especially if accelerated by eutrophication from surrounding land use. Lake-level
changes from increased temperature and changes in precipitation would also alter
community structure.
30
When considering the likely impact of future climate change on natural grasslands, Climate Change and
Natural Resource System
we need to consider several factors including the direct response of grasses to
enhanced atmospheric CO2, as well as changes in temperature, precipitation and
soil moisture. It is well known that plants with the C3 and the C4 pathways of
photosynthesis respond differently to atmospheric CO2 levels and also to
temperature and soil moisture levels. The C3 plants include the cool, temperate
grasses and practically all woody dicots, while the C4 plants include the warm,
tropical grasses, many types of sedge and some dicots. The C4 plants that constitute
much of the biomass of tropical grasslands, including the arid, semi-arid and moist
grasslands in India, thrive well under conditions of lower atmospheric CO2 levels,
higher temperatures and lower soil moisture, while C3 plants exhibit the opposing
traits. Increasing atmospheric CO2 levels should, therefore, favour C3 plants over
C4 grasses, but the projected increases in temperature would favour the C4 plants.
Hence the effect of climate change on grassland ecosystem would thus be region-
specific and would involve a complex interaction of factors.
Table 2.1: Assessment of the current trend in the global state of major
services provided by ecosystems

Service Sub-category Status Notes

Provisioning services Substantial production increase
Substantial production increase
Food Crops ↑ Declining production due to
overharvest
Livestock ↑
Substantial production increase
Capture fisheries ↓ Declining production
Forest loss in some regions, growth
Aquaculture in others
Wild foods ↑ Declining production of some
fibers, growth in others
Fiber ↓ Declining production
Lost through extinction and crop
Cotton, hemp, silk Filter +/-
genetic resource loss
Wood fuel
+/- Lost through extinction, overharvest
Genetic resources Unsustainable use for drinking,
↓ industry, and irrigation; amount of
Biochemicals, natural medicines, hydro energy unchanged, but dams
pharmaceuticals ↓
increase ability to use that energy
↓ Regulating services
Decline in ability of atmosphere to
Fresh water cleanse itself
Regulating services ↓ Globally, ecosystems have been a
net sink for carbon since mid-
Air quality regulation century
Preponderance of negative impacts
Climate regulation (for example, changes in land cover
Regional and local ↓ can affect local temperature and
Water regulation Global ↑ precipitation)
Varies depending on ecosystem
Erosion regulation ↓ change and location
Water purification and waste treatment Increased soil degradation
+/-
Declining water quality
Disease regulation ↓ Varies depending on ecosystem
change
Pest regulation +/- Natural control degraded through
Pollination ↓ pesticide use
Apparent global decline in
Natural hazard regulation ↓ abundance of pollinators
Cultural services Loss of natural buffers (wetlands,
↓
mangroves)
Spiritual and religious values Cultural services
Rapid decline in sacred groves and
Aesthetic values ↓ species
Recreation and ecotourism ↓ Decline in quantity and quality of
natural lands
+/- More areas accessible but many
degraded
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 and cited from World Development Report 2010, p.125 31
Climate Change If we look at various ecosystem services such as water and air purification, detoxification
of waste, regulation of climate etc., that are available free from the nature has also
been severely affected by the human activities and human induced climate change. If
we look at the table taken from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005, it has been
observed that out 24 listed ecosystem services has substantially declining and there are
five services that have mixed outcomes-some part of the earth it is declining and in some
part it has increased. In a way we could say that there are areas where out of 24
services, there is a decline in 21 services.

2.4 REVIVING AND SUSTAINING THE NATURAL

RESOURCES
As discussed above climate change has been a major threat to natural resources
apart from various anthropogenic factors. Therefore there is a need for making
global collaborative and cooperative efforts by all the nations to save this rapidly
declining life saving resources. Any sustainable natural resource management
has to follow many innovative major strategies simultaneously. Some of the
major strategies are: (i) increasing efficiency, (ii) finding out alternatives that
put less pressure on available finite natural resources, (iii) discovering more and
more substitution, (iv) recycling or reprocessing the existing resources and (v)
use of Traditional Ecological Knowledge System. Let us discuss these strategies
briefly.

i) Increasing Efficiency: This is one of the major strategies as far as

sustainability of natural resources particularly energy and water resources
are concerned. It has been predicted that by 2050, demands for energy would
be doubled to the existing consumption today. Therefore an effort has been
made to increase energy efficiency (getting more energy services per unit of
energy used). Energy efficiencies will be possible through industrial energy
efficiency, plus a similar amount from building efficiency & from a
combination of reduced vehicle use and higher-efficiency engines. India is
progressing towards increasing energy efficiency in power generation. All
Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPPs) are equipped with ‘super critical’
technology, which means that each ton of coal ignited yields more power
than in a conventional thermal power plant. Similarly, efforts are being made
in the water sector for example in agriculture by developing drought resistant
seed, early maturity of crops etc. Another effort might be using water for
multiple purposes like washing utensils and clothes and reuse the same water
for kitchen gardens.

ii) Finding out Alternatives: As most of these above mentioned natural resources
are finite/limited, there is a need for looking out alternatives. This would
help in easing out pressure from those natural resources. But for this, a
detailed resource use inventory has to be developed. For example in many
rural areas, wood is used as fuel for cooking and other purposes. In many
places it has been substituted by bio-gas. Recently effort is being carried
out to use Jatropha as a bio-fuel. Similarly, government of India is making
efforts to increase the capacity of non-conventional source of energy like
wind, solar, geothermal etc. to meet the increasing demand of energy.

iii) Discovering Substitution: This is important methods natural resource

32
conservation. For example drastic reduction in use of fossil-fuel use cannot
 be achieved without large volumes of energy from intermittent sources, like wind, Climate Change and
Natural Resource System
solar and new fuels, such as hydrogen. Similarly, an effort has been constantly
made by MSSRF in transferring drought-resistance genes from P. juliflora to
water-thirsty cereal like rice in view of the intensity and rapid spread of water
scarcity (Kesavan and Swaminathan 2008, p. 888)

iv) Recycling or Reprocessing: This is another important strategy that puts on less
pressure on existing natural resources. For example Fresh water is a very precious
natural resource. Therefore, efforts should be made to reuse the waste water
after recycling or reprocessing in various ways. There are various waste materials
from which energy is generated. Most people do not realize that solid waste
reduction and recycling help address global climate change. The manufacture,
distribution and use of products as well as management of the resulting waste, all
result in greenhouse gas emissions. Waste prevention and recycling reduce
greenhouse gases associated with these activities by reducing methane emissions,
saving energy, and increasing forest carbon sequestration. An effective system of
waste management involves the use of the “3 Rs” Reduce, Reuse and Recycle.
While ‘reduce’ means to use less, ‘reuse’ means to put the article back to use
without changing and ‘recycle’ means to put back into service after changing the
article slightly or completely. As far as possible, we must try to recycle used
aluminium cans, glass bottles, plastic bags and newspapers, which we use
in our everyday life.

v) Use of Traditional Ecological Knowledge System: According to Berkes

(1993), traditional ecological knowledge is defined as “a cumulative body
of knowledge, practices, and belief, evolving by adaptive process and handed
down through generations by cultural transmission, about the relationship
of living beings (including humans) with one another and with their
environment.” Many cities in India including the national capital New Delhi
have traditional water harvesting and conservation structures, called Baolis
or step wells. These can be revived and effectively used to recharge ground
water. Water harvesting in neighbouring areas recharges these wells naturally
and can supply water during the lean period. The Indian National Trust for
Arts and Culture (INTACH) has taken an initiative to revive these step wells
in Delhi. Similarly, there are many Traditional Ecological Knowledge
Systems related to forest and biodiversity practiced in our country, which
needs to be adopted.
Check Your Progress 3
Note: a) Use the space given below for your answer.
b) Compare your answers with those given at the end of the unit.
1) What are the concerns in context of developing countries?
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................

33
Climate Change 2) Briefly elaborate the impact of climate change on different natural resources.
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
3) List out major reviving strategies to improve the natural resources in the era of
climate change.
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.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................

2.5 LET US SUM UP

• Human activity has disturbed our ecosystems and natural resources more rapidly
and extensively than in any comparable period in history, largely to meet the
demand for food, clothing and shelter.
• As a consequence, global warming has occurred and there is change in climate.
This change in climate would have a detrimental effect on our natural resource
base. If this trend continues, it would question the sustainability of the life saving
resources to the human society and the earth.
• Therefore, there is an urgent need for new management regimes for preserving
our natural resources.

2.6 KEY WORDS

Atmosphere : The gaseous envelope that covers the earth.
Biosphere : The part of the earth system comprising all
ecosystems and living organisms in the atmosphere,
on land or in the oceans including derived dead
organic matter such as litter, soil organic matter and
ocean detritus.
Hydrosphere : The portion of the earth covered by water.
Lithosphere : The solid portion of the earth.
Ecosystem Services : Ecological processes or functions that have value to
individuals or society.
Natural Resources : These resources originally came with earth and not
created by human being.
Traditional Ecological : A cumulative body of knowledge, practices, and
Knowledge belief, evolving by adaptive process and handed
down through generations by cultural transmission,
about the relationship of living beings (including
humans) with one another and with their
34
environment.”
 Climate Change and
2.7 REFERENCES AND FURTHER SUGGESTED Natural Resource System

READINGS
Commission on Climate Change and Development. 2009. Closing the Gaps:
Disaster Risk Reduction and Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries,
Stockholm: Commission on Climate Change and Development.
Gupta, S. K. and Deshpande, R. D. 2004. Water for India in 2050: first-order
assessment of available options. Current Science, 86 (9), 1226-1224.
INCCA. 2010. Climate Change and India: A 4x4 Assessment - A Sectoral and
Regional Analysis for 2030s, Ministry of Environment and Forest, Government
of India, New Delhi.
van der Linden and Hanson, C.E. (eds.) 2007. IPCC ‘Summary for Policy Makers’,
In Parry M L., O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability”, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, UK:
Cambridge University Press. 7-22.
Kesavan, P. C. and Swaminathan, M.S. 2008. Strategies and models for
agricultural sustainability in developing Asian countries. Philosophical
Transaction of Royal Society of America, 363, 877-891.
Shukla, P. R., Subodh, K. S., Ravindranath, N. H., Garg, A. and Bhattacharya, S.
2003. Climate Change and India: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation,
Hyderabad. University Press (India) Pvt. Ltd.
World Bank. 2010. World Development Report 2010 titled “Climate Change
and Development”. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

2.8 KEY TO CHECK YOUR PROGRESS

Check Your Progress 1
1) Your answer must include the following points:
• Renewable resources are utilized beyond their regenerative capacity,
which is especially troubling for the poor, whose resource-base tends to
be narrow and less easily shifted geographically and sectorally.
• Non-renewable resources are depleted with insufficient savings in man-
made, human, or social capital, and with minor benefits directed
specifically to the poor and
• the “sink” capacity of the environment is overburdened by pollution,
which in turn damages human health and ecosystem functions.
2) Your answer must include the following points:
• Ecosystems are likely to be pushed increasingly into alternate states
with the possible breakdown of traditional species relationships, such
as pollinator/plant and predator/prey interactions, adding additional
stresses and potential for system failures.
• Some agricultural and forest systems may experience near-term
productivity increases, but over the long term, many such systems are
35
Climate Change likely to experience overall decreases in productivity that could result in
economic losses and diminished ecosystem services desperately resulting in
the need for new management regimes for preserving our natural resource
base.
Check Your Progress 2
1) Your answer must include the following points:
• Rainfall, runoff, stream flow, ground water recharge, water availability from
changes in annual average
• Variability and extremes, floods and droughts, more intense and more frequent
storms
• Temperature – resulting in aridity, increasing evaporation and irrigation water
demand, glacier and snow melt, loss of storage, change in water quality
• Sea level changes-resulting in impacts of estuaries, deltas and sea water
intrusion into ground water aquifers
• Plant water use efficiency from changes in atmosphere carbon dioxide
(CO2) concentration.
2) Your answer must include the following points:
• Forest fragmentation leading to loss of biodiversity by hampering
migration of species
• Forest degradation leading to loss of biodiversity, affecting forest
regeneration
• Dominance of monoculture species under afforestation increase
vulnerability to fire, pests, etc.
• Absence of fire protection and management practices enhance
vulnerability to fire
• Non-sustainable extraction of timber, fuel wood and NTFPs leading to
degradation of forests, fragmentation of forests and affecting shift of
forest boundaries and regeneration of plant species
• Inadequate fuel wood conservation programmes increases pressure on
forests, leading to degradation
• Inadequate and less-effective implementation of the different
conservation programmes leading to forest degradation.
Check Your Progress 3
1) Your answer must include the following points:
• The coastal wetlands play an important role in the economy of this region,
especially in fisheries.
• The mangroves and the coral reefs in particular are important nurseries
for several fishes, prawns and crabs. Of the annual fish catch of about
5.6 Mt, about half is from marine fisheries; the coral reefs and associated
shelves and lagoons alone have the potential for about 10 per cent of
the total marine fish yields.
• Climate change impacts on the coastal wetlands would thus have serious
consequences for the livelihoods of people.
36
2) Your answer must include the following points: Climate Change and
Natural Resource System
• Increasing efficiency
• Finding out alternatives that put less pressure on available finite natural
resources
• Discovering more and more substitution
• Recycling or reprocessing the existing resources
• Use of Traditional Ecological Knowledge System.

37
Climate Change
UNIT 3 HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE

Structure
3.0 Introduction
3.1 Objectives
3.2 Climate Change and Vulnerability
3.2.1 Climate Change: Vulnerability of People and Places
3.2.2 Climate Change: Vulnerability of Agriculture
3.3 Climate Change and Its Impact on Various aspects of Human Life
3.3.1 Climate Change and Food Security
3.3.2 Climate Change and Human Conflicts
3.3.3 Climate Change and Human Health
3.4 Let Us Sum Up
3.5 Key Words
3.6 References and Further Suggested Readings
3.7 Key to Check Your Progress

3.0 INTRODUCTION
The Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC observed that, ‘warming of climate system
is now unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increase in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and
rising global sea level (Solomon et al., 2007, p. 5). This has a specific impact on
different physical and socio-economic systems, namely, agriculture and eco-
system, coastal system, health, infrastructure and tourism etc. On the other hand,
in the context of spatio-temporal scale, the developing nations are severely affected
by the potential impacts of the climate change now and forever. Moreover,
presently some of the developed nations are also facing severe damages due to
the climate change, some recent examples include: European heat wave 2003
and Katrina Hurricane 2005 etc. Interestingly, it is also stated that the developing
nations are affected due to three main reasons which include: geographical
location, high dependence on the sensitive sectors and low adaptive capacity
(Stern, 2006). Hence, it seems that the world communities, particularly the poor
people living in the developing nations, have faced many risks from the climate
change.

In this unit an attempt has been made to understand the nature of climate change
risk and its impacts on the society, especially in light of human dimension.
Therefore, attempts have been made to discuss issues related to human lives and
livelihood. As agriculture is the major source of livelihood in most of the
developing countries and simultaneously it is severely affected by climate change,
a detailed discussion about agriculture is being made in this unit. Apart from
agriculture some of the major issues like food security, human health as well as
human conflict have also been discussed in brief.

38
 Human Dimensions of
3.1 OBJECTIVES Climate Change

After reading this unit you will be able to:

• describe human dimensions of climate change in general;
• explain vulnerability of people and places to climate change;
• analyze the impact of climate change on agriculture in general and India in specific;
and
• highlight the impacts of climate change on various aspects of human life i.e. food
security, human conflicts and health.

3.2 CLIMATE CHANGE AND VULNERABILITY

Under the backdrop of the existing scientific literature, it asserts that the climate change
has a significant impact on the world community, especially on the livelihood of the
poor people in the developing nations. Henceforth, it is necessary to understand the
vulnerability of the people that address three issues:
• Who is vulnerable (i.e. entity within the specific place);
• Vulnerable to what (i.e. stimulus/ stress); and
• Vulnerable with respect to what (i.e. the characteristics of the entity that make
them more vulnerable).
The concept of ‘vulnerability’, therefore, has gained momentum from the ongoing
climate change research in the recent period that most of the scholars are interested
to assess it from different perspectives: region, sector, social groups and eco-
systems etc. The Third Assessment Report (AR3) of the IPCC (2001) has given
formal definition and methodology to assess it empirically. In the context of the
climate change, the notion of the ‘vulnerability’ is defined as the extent to which
a natural or social system is susceptible to sustaining damage from climate change.
Thus, it is the function of three factors, i.e. the sensitivity, adaptive capacity and
the degree of the exposure of the system to climatic hazards. The AR3 of the
IPCC has given the formal definition on vulnerability as:

‘the degree to which a system is susceptible to or is unable to cope with adverse

effects of climate change including climate variability and extremes, and it is the
function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a
system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity’ (McCarthy et al.,
2001, p. 995).

Here, the exposure is the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to
significant climatic variations, the sensitivity is the degree to which a system is
affected – either adversely or beneficially – by climate related stimuli (i.e. direct
or indirect), and the adaptive capacity is the ability of the system to adjust to
climate change to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities,
or to cope with the consequences (McCarthy et al., 2001). Of late, the climate
change discourse, in sum, has defined vulnerability from the integrated perspective
that combines both bio-physical and socio-economic vulnerability. In fact, the
socio-economic vulnerability focuses on the internal state of the system that
makes human societies and communities either susceptible to or cope with damage
from external hazards. The bio-physical vulnerability, in contrast, is determined
39
Climate Change by the nature of the physical hazards to which it is exposed, i.e. the likelihood or
frequency of hazard events, the extent of human exposure to hazard and the
systems’ sensitivity to the impacts of the hazard.

3.2.1 Climate Change: Vulnerability of People and Places

As per scientific evidences, climate change would have more influential impact in
the upcoming years of the 21st century, and importantly, it would be greater than
the last 10,000 years. It seems that the term climate change will be a real stress as
well as shock to the human being. The impacts, however, are region or location
specific that especially depends upon their exogenous (i.e. physical environment)
and endogenous (i.e. socio-economic environment) factors. As ‘vulnerability’ is
scale dependent, the vulnerability of an entity is different even at household level
that depends upon both physical and socio-economic factors. Therefore, it is
very important to downscale the vulnerability study rather than estimating it at the
global level. In general, the climate change especially affects the regions which
are located in the temperate zone (i.e. South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin
America) and people who are living in the susceptible location and whose livelihood
is basically derived from the sensitive sectors like agriculture, fishing etc.

In the context of Africa, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the IPCC has
mentioned that it is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and
climate variability. As Africa’s economy mostly depends on the agriculture sector,
it is highly vulnerable to current climate sensitivity in addition to the existing
development challenges such as endemic poverty, complex governance,
institutional dimensions, and limited access to capital, including markets,
infrastructure and technology, ecosystem degradation, complex disasters and
conflicts. In Africa, human or societal adaptive capacity is very low and hence
they are more vulnerable. This is not only true to Africa but also applicable to
many developing countries of Latin America and Asia including India.

Small islands are also highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. As per
the AR4 of the IPCC, some of the studies suggest that sea-level could lead to
reduction in island size, particularly in the Pacific. The small islands situated in the
Indian and Pacific Oceans and the Caribbean are highly vulnerable to sea level
rise that will exacerbate inundation, erosion and other coastal hazards. Further,
the water resources, coral reefs, fisheries, marine-based resources are in high
risk in the small islands. Many islands, for example, in the Caribbean are likely to
experience increased water stress as a result of the climate change. Further, the
tourism that generates higher share of foreign exchange is severely affected by
climate change.

As far as Asia is concerned, the AR3 of the IPCC predicted that the area-averaged
annual mean warming would be about 3° C in the decade of the 2050s and about
5° C in the decade of the 2080s over the land regions of Asia. The rise in surface
air temperature was projected to be most pronounced over boreal Asia in all
seasons. Therefore, it would affect different sectors as well as regions of Asia.
The water and agriculture sectors are likely to be the most affected because of
their sensitivity to climate change. Agricultural productivity is likely to suffer severe
losses because of high temperature, severe drought, flood conditions, and soil
degradation. Further, the forest ecosystems in boreal Asia would suffer from

40
floods and increased volume of runoff associated with melting of permafrost Human Dimensions of
Climate Change
regions. In spatial scale, AR4 of the IPCC asserts that the frequency of occurrence
of climate-induced diseases and heat stress in Central, East, South and South-
East Asia have increased with rising temperatures and rainfall variability. The
tropical Asia are likely to have increased exposure to extreme events, including
forest die back and increased fire risk, typhoons and tropical storms, floods and
landslides, and severe vector-borne diseases. The stresses of climate change are
likely to disrupt the ecology of mountain and highland systems in Asia. Glacial
melt is also expected to increase under changed climate conditions. Sea-level rise
will lead to large-scale inundation along the vast Asian coastline and recession of
flat sandy beaches. The ecological stability of mangroves and coral reefs around
Asia would be put at increased risk.

In India, a trend of sea level rise due to thermal expansion of seawater in the
Indian Ocean is expected to inundate low lying areas, drown coastal marshes and
wetlands, erode beaches, exacerbate flooding and increase the salinity of rivers,
bays and aquifers. Deltas will be threatened by flooding, erosion and salt intrusion.
The major delta area of the Ganga, Brahmaputra, and Indus rivers, which have
large populations reliant on riverine resources, will be affected by changes in water
regimes, salt-water intrusion and land loss. Many large Indian cities are situated
on the coast, flood plains and river deltas. A one-metre sea level rise will displace
approximately 7.1 million people in India and about 5764 square kilometres (km)
of land area will be lost, along with 4200 km of roads.

The coastal states of Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat face a grave risk from sea
level rise, which could cause flooding of land (including agricultural land). Goa
will be the worst hit, losing a large percentage of its total land area, including
many of its famous beaches and tourist infrastructure. A one metre rise in sea level
will adversely affect 7 per cent of the population in Goa. In the state of Maharashtra,
over 13 lakh people are at risk. Beyond actual inundation, rising sea levels will
also put millions of people at greater risk of flooding and displace a large number
of people. Increased seawater percolation may further reduce freshwater supplies.
Coastal erosion will increase substantially. Loss of coastal mangroves will have
an impact on fisheries and coastal fishing communities will be severely affected.

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the coral reef of the Lakshadweep
archipelago are most vulnerable. In the Lakshadweep group of islands, the entire
population is at risk. Most of the areas likely to be lost in West Bengal include the
Sunderban mangrove swamps and reserved forests. Such a similar situation is
also predicted for coastal Orissa. Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, the two coastal
states with long and heavily populated coastlines will also face the risk of coastal
erosion and displacement. Mangroves in the Krishna, Godavari and Kaveri deltas
will be gravely affected, as well as important bird areas such as Pulicat, Point
Calimere and Neelapattu wetlands. Intensive food grain production practiced in
these states will be negatively affected by salt water intrusion

Therefore, climate change has become a major obstacle in the developmental

pathways of the developing nations that would create major hindrances in
achieving the objectives of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In
reality, the developing nations are already in stress due to the different
development related problems and hence the climate change has brought

41
Climate Change additional problems that again ruined the susceptible position of the developing
nations. In South Asia and the Sub-Saharan Africa, up to 145-220 million additional
people could fall below US $2 per day and every year an additional 1, 65,000 to
2, 50,000 children could die due to the climate change by 2100 (Stern, 2006).
Further, there is also prediction that by the middle of the current century 200
million people may become permanently displaced due to rising sea level, heavier
flash floods, more intense droughts and high sensitivity of super cyclone (Stern,
2006) and also more than 400 million people could be suffering from chronic
hunger in 2015.
Check Your Progress 1
Note: a) Use the space given below for your answer.
b) Compare your answers with those given at the end of the unit.
1) How is vulnerability defined in climate change? Describe in brief, the three factors
that constitute vulnerability definition.
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3.2.2 Climate Change: Vulnerability of Agriculture

Among the sensitive sectors, the agriculture sector is severely affected by
the potential impacts of the climate change that has significant negative influence
on future food security. Though some studies have found that the emission of
CO 2 has beneficial effects on crop yields, the change in temperature and
precipitation affect the timing and length of the growing yields, and the
reduction in availability of water decreases the agricultural production. Further,
the extreme climatic shocks such as cyclone and flood have negative
implications on agricultural production also. Henceforth, there is a negative
correlation between temperature and agricultural productivity. It seems that
the rising temperature has some positive impacts on agricultural productivity
at the initial period, but it has negative implications while it has reached the
threshold level. Therefore, at present the developed nations are enjoying
higher productivity due to the slight change in the temperature that has
increased the growing period of the crops. On the other hand, the developing
nations are losing agricultural productivity as they have already reached the
threshold level that a slight change has severe impact on the agriculture.

At present, 40% of the Earth’s land surface is managed for cropland and
pasture. In the developing countries, nearly 70% of the people live in rural
areas where agriculture is the largest supporter of livelihoods. It seems that
the growth in agricultural incomes in the developing countries fuels the demand
for non-basic goods and services fundamental to human development. Of late,
the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that the
livelihoods of roughly 450 million of the world’s poorest people are entirely
dependent on managed eco-system services. Henceforth, the negative implication
42
on the agriculture sector as a result of the climate change has significant impact on Human Dimensions of
Climate Change
the poor people around the world that affect real purchasing power, standard of
living and adaptive capacity of the people to cope with the climatic chaos.

During the early 1990s, Rosenzweig and Parry (1994) and Darwin et al. (1995)
estimated the impacts of climate change on agriculture sector, and their results
mainly found that there will be minimal impact at the global level due to the modest
level of adaptation (c.f. Adger et al., 2007: 725). Focusing on the regional
distribution, Rosenzweig and Parry (1994) highlighted that the agricultural
production could be improved in the developed nations, and in developing nations,
it might be declined. It estimated that, in their global study, a change of – 1.2 to –
7.6% in worldwide cereal production without adaptation is reduced to 0 to –5%
with moderate farm level adaptation. In the context of India, Kumar and Parikh
(2001) highlights that even after accounting farm level adaptation, a 2-3.5 degree
centigrade rise in mean temperature and 7% increase in mean precipitation will
reduce net revenue by 9-25% in India. On the other hand, Rao and Sinha (1994)
estimated that the wheat yields decrease between 28 to 68% without considering
carbon fertilization effects; and would range between +4 to -34% after considering
carbon fertilization effect in India.

Swaminathan (2002) describes two major types of impacts of climate change on

agriculture. One is by altering production adversely in the main food producing
areas; the climate change could result in increased food scarcities. The location
of main food-producing regions could change. The other impact could be on the
physiological mechanisms regulating plant and animal productivity with the most
coming from changes in precipitation patterns.

i) Ecological Vulnerability of Agriculture

Not all regions of the world contribute equally to food production. The impact
of climate change on the major food-producing regions would affect global
food security system significantly. The four vulnerable producer groups which
may be severely affected by adverse changes in temperature and precipitation
have been identified.
• The first is located in the humid tropics, in lowland areas of Asia and in
the Pacific and Caribbean. These areas, normally prone to excessive
rains and flooding, may be less severely affected by climate change.
• The second group, in the arid and semi-arid areas of the tropics in Africa
and South Asia and in the Mediterranean climate of West Asia and North
Africa, will be extremely vulnerable.
• A third group that comprises of farmers at high altitudes may experience
both favourable and unfavourable effects.
• The fourth group at the cold margins at higher latitudes may also experience
diverse effects.
Swaminathan (2002) has suggested that overall levels of production can be
maintained through a combination of shifts of agricultural zones and
adjustments in technology and management. These, however, require an
excellent understanding of the varied effects of climate change on soil, water,
biodiversity, and physiology of crop plants. These analyses of Swaminathan
(2002) have been greatly substantiated by a few recent publications, such as
43
Climate Change those of Altieri and Nicholls (2004), titled “Biodiversity and Pest Management
in Agroecosystems”; and Rosenzweig and Hillel, (2008) on “Climate change
and the Global Harvest: Potential Impacts of the Greenhouse Effect on
Agriculture”. Some of these are:
• Potentially significant impact to small farm production is loss of soil organic
matter due to soil warming; if so, small farms must manage soil nutrients
by using farm yard manure, ploughing in stem-nodulating Sesbania rostrata,
bio-fertilizers etc.
• Higher air temperatures are likely to accelerate the natural decomposition
of organic matter, which is good.
• Under drier soil conditions, root growth and decomposition of organic
matter are significantly suppressed, and as soil cover diminishes,
vulnerability to wind erosion increases, especially if wind intensifies.
Therefore, rain water harvesting, storage and its sustainable use are
essential.
• Conditions usually become more favourable for the proliferation of insect
pests in warmer climates. Warmer winter temperatures may also allow
larvae to winter-over in areas where they are normally limited by cold,
thus causing greater infestation during the following crop season. Migrant
pests are expected to respond more quickly to climate change than plants,
and may be able to colonize newly available crops/habitats.
• Models on plant diseases indicate that climate change could alter stages
and rates of development of certain pathogens, modify host resistance,
and result in changes in the physiology of host-pathogen interactions.
The most likely consequences are shifts in the geographical distribution
of pathogens and increased crop losses. Literature suggests that the most
likely impact of climate change will be felt in three areas: in losses from
plant diseases, in the efficacy of disease management strategies, and in
the geographical distribution of plant diseases. Climate change could have
a positive, negative or no impact on individual plant diseases, but with
increased temperatures and humidity many pathogens are predicated to
increase in severity.
• The above said scenario could necessitate a steep increase in the use of
chemical pesticides and this would enhance production costs and also increase
the environmental problems associated with agrochemical use. However,
within the realm of ever-green agriculture that involves several cereal, pulse,
oilseed, vegetable, fodder crops, it is expected that build up of a particular
insect pest species would be greatly retarded. Further, several different crops
grown simultaneously enhance the abundance of predators and parasites
which provide biological suppression of pest densities.

Genetic shields in coastal areas vulnerable to seawater inundation

Based on the suggestion of Prof. M.S. Swaminathan as early as 1988 in a
meeting on climate change at Kyoto, Japan, the scientists at the MSSRF
identified several salt-tolerant genes from the mangrove species, Avicennia
marina (Mehta et al., 2005) and transferred these through the recombinant

44
 Human Dimensions of
DNA technology to rice. It is an important crop in the coastal areas, which are Climate Change
threatened by increasing sea level, and frequent storms and cyclones. The salinity-
resistant rice developed with the help of genes transferred from unrelated mangrove
species (A. marina) also emphasizes the urgent need to prevent loss of valuable
genes through conservation and enhancement of biodiversity in the developing
countries. The transgenic rice tolerates salinity up to 150 mM. The development
of transgenic salt-tolerant rice (Prashant and Parida, 2005) is scientifically fascinating
and socially relevant. MSSRF is currently engaged in transferring drought-resistant
genes from Prosopis juliflora, a common desert tree, to water-thirsty rice. Such
genetic shielding of crop plants against salinity, submergence and drought would
sustain the coastal agriculture and the livelihoods of millions of resource-poor
farming families, even if the frequencies and intensities of extreme hydro-
meteorological disasters increase. Recombinant DNA technology provides an
opportunity to design and develop genetic shields against adverse changes in
temperature, precipitation and sea level as a result of global warming.

Source: Kesavan, P. C. and Swaminathan, M. S. 2006. Managing extreme natural disasters in

coastal Areas. Philosophical Transaction of Royal Society of America, 364, 2208.

ii) Physiological Vulnerability of Agriculture

Generally, increased CO2 in the atmosphere can help to increase the rate of
photosynthesis if water and nutrients do not become limiting factors. It should
be noted that C3 and C4 plants (i.e those which have a 3-carbon or 4-
carbon pathway of photosynthesis) respond differently. The C3 crops like
wheat, barley, rice and potatoes could respond positively to CO2 enrichment.
However, as has been pointed out by Sinha and Swaminathan (1991), the
rise in temperature would nullify the benefit of higher CO2 concentration.
They examined the integrated impact of a rise in temperature and in CO2
concentration on the yield of rice and wheat in India. The study showed that
for rice, increasing mean daily temperature decreases the period from
transplantation to maturity. Such a reduction in duration results in decreasing
crop yield. There are, however, genotypic differences in per-day yield
potential.

Wheat has shown an adverse impact on yield if the mean temperatures rise
by 1 to 2°C. For each 0.5°C increase in temperature, there would be a
reduction of crop duration of seven days, which in turn would reduce yield
by 0.45 tonnes per hectare. Also, for an increase of 1°C, in mean annual
temperature, the thermal limit of cereal cropping in mid-latitude northern
hemisphere regions would tend to advance by about 150 to 200 km; the
altitudinal limit to arable agriculture would rise by about 150-200m. Several
other studies (Warrick, R.A. 1998) also suggest that for the core mid-latitude
cereal regions, an average warming of 2°C may decrease potential yields by
3 to 17%.

In general, higher temperatures are found to result in reduced rice yields in all
seasons and in most locations. As said earlier, the possible increase in rice
yields because of increased CO2 levels is nullified by rise in temperature.
Simulations of impact of climate change on wheat yields for several locations
in India using a dynamic crop growth model indicated that productivity
depended on the magnitude of temperature change. The Indian simulation
45
Climate Change studies (Rao and Sinha, 1994) suggested that wheat yields would be smaller
than those in the current climate, even with the beneficial effects of CO2 on
crop yields, since yield reductions are associated with a shortening of the wheat-
growing season resulting from projected temperature increases. Very little
information is available on the physiology and productivity as affected by rise in
temperature and CO2 in the plantation crops like rubber, oil palm, coconut,
sugarcane, coffee, and spices etc.

In a recent interview by Prof. Swaminathan given to Times of India on 30th

January, 2011 entitled ‘Sly Climate makes farming India’s riskiest
profession’ has rightly said that “…people at the grassroots should know
how to checkmate climate aberration. We have not utilized our Panchayati
raj system effectively. At least one woman and one male member of every
panchayat should be trained to become climate risk managers. A biogas plant
and a farm pond in every farm are essential to reduce emission and ensure
energy and water security. In addition we need to classify our crops into
those which are climate resilient and those which are climate sensitive. For
example, wheat is a climate sensitive crop while rice shows a wide range of
adaptation in terms of growing conditions. A search for new genes conferring
climate resilience is an urgent need. For a long term solution, we have to
build gene banks for warming India”. (Times of India, p.27)
Check Your Progress 2
Note: a) Use the space given below for your answer.
b) Compare your answers with those given at the end of the unit.
1) Describe any four ecological vulnerability of agriculture in India due to climate
change.
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3.3 CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON

VARIOUS ASPECTS OF HUMAN LIFE
In this section, we will discuss briefly about some of the other aspects of human
life i.e. food security, human conflict and human health.

3.3.1 Climate Change and Food Security

Agriculture in the 20th century accomplished the remarkable achievement of
increasing food supply at a faster rate than growth in demand, despite rapidly
growing populations and per capita incomes. Johnson (1999) and Antle et al.
(1999) show that during the second half of the 20th century, real (inflation-adjusted)
prices of wheat and feed corn have declined at an average annual rate of 1–3%.
Climate change aside, several recent studies anticipate that aggregate food
production is likely to keep pace with demand, so that real food prices will be
46
stable or slowly declining during the first 2 decades of the 21st century. According to Human Dimensions of
Climate Change
the U.S. Department of Agriculture (1999), food security has improved globally, leading
to a decline in the total number of people without access to adequate food.
The declining real price of food grains has greatly improved the food security
of the majority of the world’s poor, who spend a large share of their incomes
on these staples. The global number, however, masks variation in food security
among regions, countries, and social groups that are vulnerable because of
low incomes or a lack of access to food (FAO, 1999). In lower income
countries, political instability and inadequate physical and financial resources
are the root causes of the food security problem. In higher income developing
countries, food insecurity stems from unequal distribution of food, those
results from wide disparities in purchasing power.

Relatively few studies have attempted to predict likely paths for food demand
and supply beyond 2020. There are reasons for optimism that growth in food
supply is likely to continue a pace with demand beyond 2020. For example,
population growth rates are projected to decline into the 21 st century, and
evidences suggest that agricultural productivity potential is likely to continue
to increase. Other analysts are less optimistic about long-term world food
prospects. For example, there is evidence that the Asian rice monoculture
may be reaching productivity limits because of adverse impacts on soils and
water. Tweeten (1998) argues that extrapolation of the downward trend in
real food prices observed in the latter half of the 20 th century could be
erroneous because the supply of the best arable land is being exhausted and
rates of productivity growth are declining. At the same time, demand is likely
to continue to grow at reasonably high rates well into the 21st century. Ruttan
(1996) indicates that despite advances in biotechnology, most yield
improvements during the first decades of the 21st century are likely to continue
to come from conventional plant and animal breeding techniques. These
concerns about future productivity growth, if correct, mean that simple
extrapolation of yield for impact assessment may be overoptimistic. The
implication is that confidence in predictions of the world food demand and
supply balance and price trends beyond the early part of the 21st century is
low.

In most developing countries with long coastlines like India and developing
small island state countries, climate change related degradation of marine
resources would ultimately lead to loss of livelihoods, and food insecurity. For
instance, with rise in sea surface temperatures, coral decline and death result
in loss of fish breeding and harvesting grounds leading to lower fish stocks
and catch. The damage to coral reefs and sea grass beds leads to loss of
habitat for fish, turtles, and couch. This leads to smaller fish catch and
threatens livelihoods based on fisheries.

3.3.2 Climate Change and Human Conflicts

Other than the weather related catastrophes, it causes another effect known
as ‘conflict and violence’. The shortages of natural resources due to the
climate change will bring vie in between the countries to acquire it. In
consequence, it will create conflict and violence between the countries such
as the lack of water resources in the Nile River has driven the conflict between
the East African countries. The expectation that, it can foster the third world
47
Climate Change war in future and is increasing tension across as well as within the nations.
Henceforth, it needs an urgent action that the regional cooperation between
the countries is required to solve the matter about the distribution of the
natural resources between the nations.

3.3.3 Climate Change and Human Health

Health is another major area which has been severely affected due to climate change.
Impact on health will ultimately affect the level of poverty through reducing per capita
productivity and level of wages of the labour that deteriorate the economic growth
rate of the country. Ultimately it affects Human Development Index (HDI) of the
nations due to the occurrence of high mortality and decreasing life expectancy.

Since 70’s, climate change demands large number of death increase in worldwide
such as malnutrition, heat stress, vector borne disease like malaria and dengue
fever, particularly in low and mid latitude regions whereas, decreasing cold related
deaths in high latitude region. The Fourth Assessment Report (FAR) of the IPCC
cited that, the temperature would be higher in some parts of Africa and European
Union as comparison to the other regions of the world (IPCC, 2007). The heat
wave in Europe (2003) demands life of the 35 thousand people and loss of
agricultural productivity reached $ 15 billion (Stern, 2006). In 1998, a large
number of deaths occurred in Orissa due to heat wave. At the same time, World
Health Organization (WHO) claims that climate change since 1970’s demands
1, 50,000 deaths per year and it is the cause of creating refugee in the developing
world. About 96 percent of natural disaster related deaths have occurred in the
developing nations. In Vietnam rising health expenditures were found to have
pushed about 3.5 percent of the people into the absolute poverty in both 1993 to
1998, whereas Malaria is estimated to have reduced economic growth in the
most affected countries especially Africa and South Asia by 1.3 percent per year
(Sachs and Gallup, 2001).

Global climate change will have a wide range of health impacts. Overall, negative
health impacts are anticipated to outweigh positive health impacts. Some health
impacts would result from changes in the frequencies and intensities of extremes
of heat and cold and of floods and droughts. Other health impacts would result
from the impacts of climate change on ecological and social systems and would
include changes in infectious disease occurrence, local food production and
nutritional adequacy, and concentrations of local air pollutants and aeroallergens,
as well as various health consequences of population displacement and economic
disruption. There is little published evidence that changes in population health
status actually have occurred as yet in response to observed trends in climate
over recent decades. Occurring difficulty in identifying such impacts is that the
causation of most human health disorders is multi-factorial and the “background”
socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental context varies constantly. A
further difficulty is foreseeing all of the likely types of future health effects,
especially because for many of the anticipated future health impacts it may be
inappropriate to extrapolate existing risk-function estimates to climatic-
environmental conditions not previously encountered.

Estimation of future health impacts also must take account of differences in

vulnerability between populations and within populations over time. Human
beings are exposed to climate change through changing weather patterns and
48 indirectly though changes in water, air, food quality and quantity, ecosystems,
agriculture, livelihoods and infrastructure. These direct and indirect exposures Human Dimensions of
Climate Change
can cause death, disability and suffering. Ill-health increases vulnerability and
reduces the capacity of individuals and groups to adapt to climate change.
Populations with high rates of disease and debility cope less successfully with
stresses of all kinds, including those related to climate change.

Communicable diseases are still a serious threat to public health in many parts of the
world. Almost 2 million deaths a year, mostly in young children, are caused by diarrheal
diseases and other conditions that are attributable to unsafe water and lack of basic
sanitation. Malaria, another common disease whose geographical range may be affected
by climate change, causes around 1 million child deaths annually. Worldwide, 840
million people were under-nourished in 1998-2000. Progress in overcoming hunger
is very uneven. Based on current trends, only Latin America and the Caribbean will
achieve the MDG target of halving the proportion of people who are hungry by 2015.

Research since the Second Assessment Report (SAR) mainly has described the effect
of climate variability, particularly daily and seasonal extremes, on health outcomes.
Studies of health impacts associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
have identified inter-annual climate-health relationships for some epidemic diseases.
The upward trend in worldwide numbers of people adversely affected by weather
disasters has been characterized by peak impacts during El Niño events. Meanwhile,
there has been an expanded effort to develop, test, and apply mathematical models
for predicting various health outcomes in relation to climate scenarios. This mix of
epidemiological studies and predictive modeling leads to the following conclusions.
• An increase in the frequency or intensity of heat waves will increase the risk of
mortality and morbidity, principally in older age groups and the urban poor.
• The greatest increases in thermal stress are forecast for higher latitude (temperate)
cities, especially in populations that have limited resources, such as access to air
conditioning.
• Poor urban populations in developing countries may be particularly vulnerable to
the impacts of increased heat waves, but no equivalent predictions are available.
• Warmer winters and fewer cold spells, because of climate change, will decrease
cold-related mortality in many temperate countries (high confidence). The
reduction in winter deaths will vary between populations. Limited evidence
indicates that, in at least some temperate countries, reduced winter deaths would
outnumber increased summer deaths.
• Any regional increases in climate extremes associated with climate change would
cause physical damage, population displacement, and adverse effects on food
production, freshwater availability and quality, and would increase the risks of
infectious disease epidemics, particularly in developing countries. Over recent
years, several major climate related disasters have had major adverse effects on
human health — including floods in China, Mozambique, Bangladesh, and Europe;
famine in Sudan; Super Cyclone in Orissa; hurricane Katrina; and Hurricane
Mitch, which devastated Central America.
Climate change will cause some deterioration in air quality in many large urban areas,
assuming that current emission levels continue. Increases in exposure to ozone and
other air pollutants (e.g. radon and forest fire particulates etc.) could increase known
morbidity and mortality effects. Vector-borne diseases are maintained in complex
transmission cycles involving blood-feeding arthropod vectors (and usually reservoir
49
Climate Change hosts) that depend on specific ecological conditions for survival. These diseases are
sensitive to climatic conditions, although response patterns vary between diseases. In
areas with limited or deteriorating public health infrastructure, and where temperatures
now or in the future are permissive of disease transmission, an increase in temperatures
(along with adequate rainfall) will cause certain vector-borne diseases (including malaria,
dengue, and leishmaniasis) to extend to higher altitudes (medium to high confidence)
and higher latitudes. Higher temperatures, in combination with conducive patterns of
rainfall and surface water, will prolong transmission seasons in some endemic locations.

Mathematical models indicate that climate change scenarios over the coming century
would modestly increase the proportion of world population living in regions of potential
transmission of malaria and dengue (medium to high confidence). These models are
limited by their reliance on climate factors, without reference to modulating influences
of environmental, ecological, demographic, or socioeconomic factors. Although the
most recent of several biologically based model studies suggests that the increase in
population living in regions of potential malaria transmission would be on the order of
an extra 260–320 million people in 2080 (against a baseline expectation of about 8
billion). Changes in climate, including changes in climate variability, would affect many
other vector-borne infections (such as various types of mosquito-borne encephalitis,
Lyme disease, and tick-borne encephalitis) at the margins of current distributions. For
some diseases such as malaria in the Sahel, Western equine encephalitis in North
America, and tick-borne encephalitis in Europe a net decrease may occur. Changes in
surface water quantity and quality will affect the incidence of diarrheal diseases. Ocean
warming will facilitate transmission of cholera in coastal areas.

In some settings, the impacts of climate change may cause social disruption, economic
decline, and displacement of populations. The ability of affected communities to adapt
to such disruptive events will depend on the social, political, and economic situation of
the country and its population. The health impacts associated with such social-economic
dislocation and population displacement are substantial. For each anticipated adverse
health impact there is a range of social, institutional, technological, and behavioral
adaptation options to lessen that impact. There is a basic and general need for public
health infrastructure (programs, services, surveillance systems) to be strengthened
and maintained.

As far as India is concerned, climate change simulation models suggest that a rise in
temperature and change in humidity will adversely affect human health in India. A
warmer and wetter India will see a rise in heat-related and infectious diseases. More
people will die due to heat waves. Heat stress could result in heat cramps, heat
exhaustion, heat stroke, and damage to physiological functions, metabolic processes
and immune systems. Increased temperatures can increase the range of vector borne
diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever and several types of encephalitis,
particularly in regions where minimum temperatures currently limit pathogen and vector
development. An apt example to prove this point is the summer of 1994, when western
India experienced temperatures as high as 50°C, providing favourable conditions for
disease-carrying vectors to breed. Not surprisingly, 1994 was also the year that the
town of Surat in Gujarat was hit by an epidemic of pneumonic plague, resulting in 59
deaths. In the same year, as summer gave way to the monsoon and western India was
flooded with rains for three months, Surat was hit by a malaria epidemic. The cause
could be the numerous unattended water puddles (resulting from heavy rainfall), which
provides good breeding conditions for mosquitoes.

50
Water borne diseases, natural disasters, environmental migration, and nutritional Human Dimensions of
Climate Change
deficiency could be other major risk factors. Waterborne diseases including
cholera and diarrhoeal diseases will increase as rainfall patterns change, restricting
human access to water supplies and sanitation. Global warming will increase the
incidence of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in arid and semi-arid parts
of India. Cyclones and floods will also cause rise in illnesses, diseases, injuries
and loss of life.
Check Your Progress 3
Note: a) Use the space given below for your answer.
b) Compare your answers with those given at the end of the unit.
1) Explain any two major impacts of climate change on health in India.
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3.4 LET US SUM UP

• Vulnerability in climate change is defined as the degree to which a system is
susceptible to or is unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change
including climate variability and extremes, and it is the function of the
character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a systems is
exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.
• Climate change especially affects the regions those are located in the
temperate zone i.e. South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and
people those are living in the susceptible location and whose livelihood is
basically derived from the sensitive sectors like agriculture, fishing etc.
• Swaminathan (2002) describes two major types of impacts of climate change
on agriculture. One is by altering production adversely in the main food
producing areas; the climate change could result in increased food scarcities.
The location of main food producing regions could change. The other impact
could be on the physiological mechanisms regulating plant and animal
productivity with the most coming from changes in precipitation patterns.
• In most developing countries with long coastline like India and developing
small island state countries, climate change related degradation of marine
resources would lead to loss of livelihoods, and food insecurity. Other than
the weather related catastrophes, it has another effect known as ‘conflict
and violence’. The shortages of the natural resources due to the climate
change will bring vie in between the countries to acquire it. In consequence,
it can create conflicts and violence between countries.
• Last but not the least; health is another major area which has been severely
affected due to climate change. A warmer and wetter India will see a rise in
heat-related and infectious diseases. More people will die due to heat waves.
Heat stress could result in heat cramps, heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and
damage physiological functions, metabolic processes and immune systems.
Increased temperatures can increase the range of vector borne diseases such 51
Climate Change as malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever and several types of encephalitis, particularly
in regions where minimum temperatures currently limit pathogen and vector
development.

3.5 KEY WORDS

Vulnerability : The degree to which a system is susceptible to or is unable to
cope with adverse effects of climate change including climate
variability and extremes, and it is the function of the character,
magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a systems is
exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity’.

3.6 REFERENCES AND FURTHER SUGGESTED

READINGS
Adger, W.N., Agrawala, S., Mirza, M.M.Q., Conde, C., O’Brien, K., Pulhin, J.,
Pulwarty, R., Smith, B. and Takahashi, K. 2007. “Assessment of adaptation
practices, options, constraints and capacity. Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability”. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L.
Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, (eds.),
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 717-743.
Kesavan, P. C. and Swaminathan, M.S. 2008. Strategies and models for
agricultural sustainability in developing Asian countries. Philosophical
Transaction of Royal Society of America, 363, 877-891.
Kesavan, P. C. and Swaminathan, M. S. 2006. From green revolution to evergreen
revolution: pathways and terminologies (Guest editorial), Current Science, 90,
145-146.
Kesavan, P. C. and Swaminathan, M.S. 2006. Managing extreme natural disasters
in coastal Areas. Philosophical Transaction of Royal Society of America, 364,
2191-2216.
Kavi Kumar, K.S. and Parikh, J. 2001. “Socio-economic Impacts of Climate
Change on Indian Agriculture”. International Review for Environmental
Strategies, 2 (2), 277-293.
McCarthy, J., Osvaldo, J., Canziani, F., Neil, Leary, A., David J. Kasey, D. and
White, S. 2001. “WG II: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation &
Vulnerability”. Cambridge University Press, 1000p.
Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A. and Williams, L. 2006. “The distributional Impacts
of Climate Change on rich and poor countries”. Environment and Development
Economics, 11, 159-178.
Stern, N. 2006. “Stern’s review on Economics of climate change”, Cambridge
University Press.

3.7 KEY TO CHECK YOUR PROGRESS

Check Your Progress 1
52
1) Your answer must include the following points Human Dimensions of
Climate Change
• Vulnerability in climate change is defined as the degree to which a system is
susceptible to or is unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change
including climate variability and extremes, and it is the function of the character,
magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a systems is exposed, its
sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.
• Here, the exposure is the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to
significant climatic variations, the sensitivity is the degree to which a system
is affected by climatic related stimuli, and the adaptive capacity is the ability
of the system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damages, to
take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.
Check Your Progress 2
1) Your answer must include the following points:
• Ecological vulnerability of agriculture in India due to climate change is: the
first is located in the humid tropics, in lowland areas of Asia and in the Pacific
and Caribbean. These areas, normally prone to excessive rains and flooding,
may be less severely affected by climate change.
• The second group, in the arid and semi-arid areas of the tropics in Africa and
South Asia and in the Mediterranean climate of West Asia and North Africa,
will be extremely vulnerable.
• The third group comprising farmers at high altitudes may experience both
favourable and unfavourable effects.
• The fourth group at the cold margins at higher latitudes may also experience
diverse effects.
Check Your Progress 3
1) Your answer must include the following points:
• Climate change simulation models suggest that a rise in temperature and
change in humidity will adversely affect human health in India.
• A warmer and wetter India will see a rise in heat-related and infectious
diseases.
• More people will die due to heat waves. Heat stress could result in heat
cramps, heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and damage physiological
functions, metabolic processes and immune systems. Increased
temperatures can increase the range of vector borne diseases such as
malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever and several types of encephalitis,
particularly in regions where minimum temperatures currently limit
pathogen and vector development.

53
Climate Change
UNIT 4 ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION

Structure
4.0 Introduction
4.1 Objectives
4.2 What is Mitigation and Adaptation?
4.3 Why do We Require Mitigation and Adaptation?
4.4 Mitigation Vs Adaptation
4.5 Adaptation and Mitigation Measures to Climate Impacts in India
4.6 Role of Individual, State and Civil Society for Sustainable Adaptation
4.6.1 Role of Individuals to Slow Down Climate Change
4.6.2 State
4.6.3 Civil Society
4.7 Let Us Sum Up
4.8 Key Words
4.9 References and Suggested Further Readings
4.10 Key to Check Your Progress

4.0 INTRODUCTION
Various scientific literatures, including Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC,
have asserted that climate change will affect both humans and eco-systems in
the coming decades. The developing nations are highly affected as compared to
the developed nations. Stern (2006) has given three causes for the high
vulnerability of the developing nations: geographical location, high dependence
on the sensitive sectors like agriculture and low adaptive capacity. Not only
developing nations, but also developed nations have been affected by the climate
change e.g. European heat wave 2003 and Katrina Hurricane 2004 etc. Henceforth,
it can be concluded that the potential impact of the climate change would
significantly affect the well-being of the people around the world in an uneven
manner, and importantly, acted as a barrier in the path of the sustainable
development. There are two policy prescriptions, suggested by the UNFCCC, to
avoid such impacts, i.e. ‘mitigation’ and ‘adaptation’. The UNFCCC argued that
there was no climate change without the emission of the GHGs, and hence
emphasizes more on mitigation rather than adaptation (Pielke, 1998). In doing
so, there was an extensive focus on the ‘mitigation’ policy in the ongoing climate
change negotiations, starting from Rio to Copenhagen. Despite lots of efforts,
the world community so far has not reached in a position to adopt any stringent
mitigation policy that could avoid the future potential impacts. As we lacked
strong mitigation policy at present and the world is already committed to some
of the potential impacts due to past emission of the GHGs in the atmosphere, the
notion ‘adaptation’ has mainstreamed in the recent climate policy. It has now
been accepted that adaptation is considered as an important response strategy
along with the mitigation in the climate policy; however they are not mutually
exclusive to each other and may be complementary to each other (Pielke et al.,
2007).
54
In this unit, we will discuss about the meaning and significance of mitigation and Adaptation and Mitigation
adaptation in the context of climate change. We will also discuss about various mitigation
and adaptation strategies in general and specifically implemented in India. In the end,
we will discuss the role of individual, state and civil society in reducing the effect of
climate change.

4.1 OBJECTIVES
After reading this unit you will be able to:
• define mitigation and adaptation;
• describe the need for mitigation and adaptation;
• analyze various efforts made in India for mitigation and adaptation to climate
change; and
• highlight the role of individual, state and civil society for sustainable
adaptation.

4.2 WHAT IS MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION?

Mitigation has the long history in the climate policy, whereas the adaptation has
recently gained importance. The concept ‘mitigation’ in general means the
reduction of the atmospheric GHGs, and hence, we can avoid the likelihood of
the occurrence of the climatic variability and extreme events. IPCC defines
mitigation as: “An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance
the sinks of greenhouse gases.” On the other hand, the notion ‘adaptation’ in
general refers as the individual, communities, and societies adjust their activities,
life courses and location to take an opportunity, to get advantage from the fluxes
of the social-ecological systems. The climate change literature views it as “the
adjustment in human and natural systems to actual or expected climatic stimuli,
which can reduce the negative impacts and take advantage of the positive”
(UNFCC, 1992). Further, a large number of definitions in the adaptation context
have emerged during the last two decades (see box).

Some Definitions of Adaptation to Climate Change

McCarthy et al. (2001): Adjustment in ecological, social and economic
systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects
or impacts. It refers to changes in processes, practices, or structures to
moderate or offset potential damages or take advantage of opportunities
associated with changes in climate. Further, it involves adjustments to reduce
the vulnerability of communities, regions, or activities to climatic change
and variability.
Adger et al. (2007): Adjustments to reduce vulnerability and enhance
resilience in response to observed or expected changes in climate and
associated extreme weather events.
Source: Kumar (2009a)

In particular, the adaptation explicitly depends upon the context and scale. For
instance, planting new hybrid seeds might be one kind of adaptation at the farmers’
level; at the farm level, it might need insurance and diversification; at the regional
level, it may be related to the number of farms in a compensation programme;
55
Climate Change and at a global level, it involves a shift in pattern of international food trade (Kumar,
2009a). Based on the scale, irrigation may be suitable adaptation strategy for dry land
agriculture in the short run; however it depends upon the availability of the ground
water in the long term (Kumar, 2009a). In order to systematically derive a framework
that defines the notion of adaptation, the literature has raised key questions: adaptation
to what, who or what adapts, how does adaptation occur, what and how resources
are used, how good is the adaptation. Though the diverse nature of adaptation implies
that there is no single approach for assessing, planning, and implementing adaptation
measures, it can be reviewed on the basis of the existing different adaptation types,
such as purposefulness, timing, temporal scope, spatial scope, function/ effects, form,
and performance.

What is Adaptation?

Adaptation to What?
Climate related Stimuli
Phenomena
Time/Space Scales
Non-climatic Forces
and Conditions

Who or What adapts? How does Adaptation Occur?

• System Types, Processes
• Definition Outcomes
• Characteristics

How good is Adaptation?

Evaluation
• Criteria
• Principles
Figure 4.1: Adaptation (Adapted from Smit et al., 1999; McCarthy et al., 2001)

4.3 WHY DO WE REQUIRE MITIGATION AND

ADAPTATION?
As mentioned above, climate change has severe non-linear impacts on the well-
being of the human society. Many developing nations have already experienced
weather related extreme events in terms of floods, droughts, heat waves and
tropical cyclones that are more frequent or intense than previous experiences. It
in general affects different sectors, such as fresh water resources and their
management, food and fibre and forest products, coastal system and low lying
areas, and health etc. The resulting impacts will have significant consequences
on the environment, production systems and livelihood from future climate
variability and change. Importantly, the developing nations are facing more
burdens as compared to the developed nations (Stern, 2006; and Mendelsohn et
al., 2006). Meanwhile, Stern has estimated “if we don’t act, the overall damage
cost will be equivalent to at least 5 percent of GDP now and forever, and if wider
56
range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to Adaptation and Mitigation
20 percent of the GDP or more” (Stern, 2006).

Some of the key conclusions of the Stern report

i) There is a high confidence of increasing risks of serious and irreversible impacts
from climate change associated with business-as-usual emission path;
ii) The climate change threatens the basic elements of life for people around the
world, e.g. access to water, food production, health, use of land and the
environment;
iii) The damages from climate change will be increased as the world gets warmer
further, e.g. such changes could include ‘sudden shifts in regional weather
patterns such as the monsoon rains in South Asia…, and sea level rise from
melting or collapse of ice sheets would eventually threaten land which today is
home to 1 in every 20 people; and
iv) The impacts of the climate change are not evenly distributed, i.e. the poorest
countries and especially poor or indigenous people will suffer earliest and
most.
Source: Dutt and Gaioli, (2007)

Under the backdrop of the above description, it has forced the world community to
consider precautionary options in order to reduce risks associated with the climate
change. In this context, the AR4 of the IPCC concluded that many impacts can be
avoided, reduced or delayed by undertaking mitigation measures, and the portfolio of
adaptation measures could diminish the risks associated with the climate change (Dutt
and Gaioli, 2007). Further, mitigation and adaptation are viewed as complementary in
the climate policy, as the former can reduce the likelihood component of a risk
calculation (exposure) while ther latter can work to reduce the impact component
(sensitivity) (Yohe and Strzepek, 2007).

The mitigation in general means stabilizing atmospheric concentration of the GHGs to

a certain level, and it, in particular, depends on how much potential impact we are
willing to accept. William Nordhaus, for example, has proposed the optimal rate of
emission reduction as 10-15 percent, and Stern, in contrast, has suggested for reduction
of 30-70 percent in the next two decades (Nordhaus, 2007). During the last three
decades, the GHG emissions have increased by an average of 1.6 percent per year,
and importantly, projected that it will increase under the current climate policy settings
(Rogner et al., 2007). In spite of continuous improvements in energy intensities, global
energy use and supply are projected to be increased, especially in the developing
nations as they are recently pursuing industrialization. If there is no substantial change
in the energy policy, the energy mix supplied to run the global economy in the 2025–
2030 time frame will essentially remain unchanged – more than 80% of the energy
supply will be based on fossil fuels, with consequent implications for GHG emissions
(Rogner et al., 2007). It will put the developing nations like India and China in
carbon lock-in effect, and hence, will be too costlier and also hard to reduce the GHG
emissions that the developed nations are undergoing at present. This is the reason why
the emerging developing nations also have to mitigate the GHG emissions in addition
to the developed nations.

In addition, the ‘adaptation’ is considered as a useful tool along with mitigation in the
current climate policy. In this context, there are six reasons that encourage the policy
57
Climate Change makers and the regional vulnerable communities to focus on ‘adaptation’, such as
(McCarthy et al., 2001; Stern, 2006; and Pielke et al., 2007):
i) The certain irreversible impacts of the climate change can’t be totally
avoided due to the past emission of the GHGs in the atmosphere.
ii) Anticipatory and precautionary is more effective, less costly and also
sustainable than forced and reactive adaptation.
iii) The potential impacts of the climate change may be more severe than the
current estimates suggests many irreversible impacts (e.g. severe hurricane,
and melting of Greenland Ice sheets fully etc). On the other hand, as several
million people are already exposed to poverty, the climatic risk therefore
will have non-linear and harder impact on their livelihood;
iv) Immediate benefits can be gained from better adaptation to climate
variability and extreme atmospheric events, and also by removing
maladaptive policies and practices;
v) The climate change brings opportunities as well as threats – future benefits
can result from climate change; and
vi) There are strong demands from the vulnerable developing nations to increase
their resilience capacity through international responses in the form of the
‘adaptation’.
Check Your Progress 1
Note: a) Use the space given below for your answer.
b) Compare your answers with those given at the end of the unit.
1) Why adaptation is considered a useful tool along with mitigation in the current
climate policy?
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4.4 MITIGATION VS. ADAPTATION

The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC demonstrated that the severity of the
climatic impact is determined by both mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Adaptation can be seen as direct damage prevention, while mitigation would be
indirect damage prevention (Klein et al., 2007). At present, adaptation is
unavoidable because we have already committed to some of the climatic impacts
due to the past atmospheric GHG emissions. Without mitigation, a magnitude of
climate change is likely to be reached that makes adaptation impossible for some
natural systems and involves very high social and economic cost for most human
58
systems. Therefore, an opportunity exists to integrate both adaptation and mitigation Adaptation and Mitigation
into broader development strategies and policies. Meanwhile, the recent policy makers
have been showing interest to explore the inter-relationships between adaptation and
mitigation. However, they are facing a large number of conceptual issues, such as how
much adaptation and mitigation would be optimal?, when, and in which combination,
are they substituted and complementary?, when and where is it best to invest in
adaptation and mitigation?, how do their costs and effectiveness vary over time?, how
do the two responses affect?, how are they affected by, development pathways? etc.
In the context of the climate policy, there are four inter-relationships between mitigation
and adaptation, e.g. (see figure 4.2)
i) Adaptation actions that have consequences for mitigation;
ii) Mitigation actions that have consequences for adaptation;
iii) Decisions that include synergies between adaptation and mitigation; and
iv) Processes that have consequences for both adaptation and mitigation.

M
or
ss

e
Le

All
mitigation m Cos t
pa f
Im st o

iti
cts

ga of
Co

tio
n

No action Lo
e

All adaptation ss
or
M

Figure 4.2: Inter-relationship between adaptation and mitigation (Adapted from Klein
Less Cost of More
et. al. 2007)
adaption
Further, there is also diversification between both mitigation and adaptation (Table
4.1). There are number of ways in which adaptation and mitigation are related at
different levels of decision-making. Mitigation efforts can foster adaptive capacity
if they eliminate market failures and distortions, as well as perverse subsidies
that prevent actors from making decisions on the basis of the true social costs of
the available options. At a highly aggregated scale, mitigation expenditures appear
to divert social or private resources and reduce the funds available for adaptation,
but in reality the actors and budgets involved are different. Both options change
relative prices, which can lead to slight adjustments in consumption and
investment patterns and thus to changes in the affected economy’s development
pathway, but direct trade-offs are rare. The implications of adaptation can be
both positive and negative for mitigation. For example, afforestation that is part
of a regional adaptation strategy also makes a positive contribution to mitigation.
In contrast, adaptation actions that require increased energy use from carbon-
emitting sources (e.g., indoor cooling) would affect mitigation efforts negatively.

Table 4.1: Mitigation vs. Adaptation

59
Climate Change

Mitigation Adaptation
1) Reduces all impacts (positive 1) Selective, and take advantage of
and negative) of climate change positive impacts and reduce
and thus reduces the adaptation negative ones;
challenge;
2) Benefits can be observed at the 2) Local scale benefits, but difficult
global level; to express in a single metric;
3) The benefits of mitigation carried 3) Benefit measures observed
out today will be evidenced in immediately;
several decades because of the
long residence time of greenhouse
gas in the atmosphere;
4) Needs international agreements 4) Undertaken by the affected private
4.5 and national public policies.
ADAPTATION sectors and communities,
AND MITIGATION MEASURES possibly
facilitated by public policies.
TO CLIMATE IMPACTS IN INDIA
In the context of India, the National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC)
has no different policy for both mitigation and adaptation. Therefore, this section
highlights the policies undertaken by national, regional and local government in
the case of the climate change. In order to achieve a sustainable development
path, the NAPCC will be guided by the following principles (GOI, 2009):
i) Protecting the poor and vulnerable sections of society through an inclusive
and sustainable development strategy, sensitive to the climate change;
ii) Achieving national growth objectives through a qualitative change in
direction that enhances ecological sustainability, leading to further mitigation
of greenhouse gas emissions;
iii) Devising efficient and cost-effective strategies for end-use Demand Side
Management;
iv) Deploying appropriate technologies for both adaptation and mitigation of
greenhouse gas emissions extensively as well as at an accelerated pace;
v) Engineering new and innovative forms of market, regulatory and voluntary
mechanisms to promote sustainable development;
vi) Effecting implementation of programmes through unique linkages, including
with civil society and local government institutions and through public-
private partnership; and
vii) Welcoming international co-operation for research, development, sharing
and transfer of technologies enabled by additional funding and a global IPR
regime that facilitates technology transfer to developing countries under
the UNFCCC.

Emphasizing on the above principles, the govt. of India has proposed eight missions
both for adaptation and mitigation (see GOI, 2009; and Pandve, 2009).

1) National Solar Mission: Aims to promote the development and use solar energy
60
 for power generation and other uses, with the ultimate objective of making solar Adaptation and Mitigation
competitive with fossil-based energy options. It includes the establishment of a
solar research centre, increased international collaboration on technology
development, strengthening of domestic manufacturing capacity, and increased
government funding and international support. In particular, it has specific goals
for increasing use of solar thermal technologies in urban areas, industry and
commercial establishments; a goal of increasing production of photovoltaics to
1000 MW/year; and a goal of deploying at-least 1000 MW of solar thermal
power generation.

2) National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency: In the context of the Energy
Conservation Act 2001, the NAPCC recommends mandating specific energy
consumption, decreases in large energy-consuming industries, with a system for
companies to trade energy-saving certificates, financing for public-private
partnerships to reduce energy consumption through demand side management
programme in the municipal, buildings and agricultural sectors, and energy
incentives, including reduced taxes on energy-efficient appliances.

3) National Mission on Sustainable Habitat: It aims at promoting energy efficiency

as a core component of urban planning by extending the existing Energy
Conservation Building Code, strengthening the enforcement of automotive fuel
economy standards, and using pricing measures to encourage the purchase of
efficient vehicles and incentives for the use if public transportation. It also emphasizes
waste management and recycling.

4) National Water Mission: It sets a goal of a 20 percent improvement in water use

efficiency and other measures to deal with water scarcity as a result of climate
change.

5) National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Eco-system: It aims to conserve

bio-diversity, forest cover, and other ecological values in the Himalayan region.

6) National Mission for a ‘Green India’: The goals include the afforestation of 6
million hectares of degraded forest lands and expanding national forest cover
from 23 to 33 percent.

7) National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture: It aims to support climate

adaptation in agriculture through the development of climate-resilient crops,
expansion of weather insurance mechanisms and agricultural practices.

8) National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change: To gain a

better understanding of climate science, impacts and challenges, the plan
envisions a new Climate Science Research Fund, improved climate modeling,
and increased international collaboration. It also encourages private sector
initiatives to develop adaptation and mitigation technologies through venture
capital funds.

I) Mitigation measures to Climate Change in India

There are many mitigation measures adopted by India. Below given are some of the
mitigation measures related to promotion of energy efficiency, reduction of energy
intensity through sustainable patterns of consumption, use of the Clean Development
Mechanism to accelerate the adoption of clean energy technologies etc.
61
Climate Change a) Consumption Patterns: Traditional Food habits and recycling processes have
mitigated the growth in energy demand and GHG emissions. The GHG
emissions from food production and processing are much lower in India
than in developed countries. The high ratio of recycling in India, compared
to that of other major economies, has also limited the growth in energy use
and GHG emissions, because of the lower demand for virgin material such
as steel, aluminum and copper.
b) Increased Industrial Energy Efficiency: Over the past decade, energy
efficiency in Indian industry has increased steadily. In the major energy-
consuming industrial sectors, such as cement, steel, aluminum, fertilizers,
etc., average specific energy consumption has been declining because of
energy conservation measures taken in the existing units, and (much more)
due to new capacity addition with state-of-the-art technology which is now
comparable to that of the most efficient technologies in the world.
c) Policies to Promote Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
• Electricity from Renewables: The Electricity Act, 2003, requires State
Electricity Regulatory Commissions to specify a percentage of electricity
that the electricity distribution companies must procure from renewable
sources. Several Commissions have already operationalized this
mandate, and also notified preferential prices for electricity from
renewable sources. This has contributed to acceleration in renewable-
electricity capacity addition, and over the past three years, about 2,000
MW of renewable-electricity capacity has been added in India every
year, bringing the total installed renewable capacity to over 11,000 MW,
of this, a little over 7,000 MW is based on wind power. India now has
the fourth largest installed wind capacity in the world. The National
Hydro Energy Policy has resulted in the accelerated addition of
hydropower in India, which is now over 35,000 MW.
• Enhancing the Efficiency of Power Plants: Coal is the mainstay of India’s
energy economy, and coal-based power plants account for about two-
thirds of the total electricity generation installed capacity of about
135,000 MW. The Electricity Regulatory Commissions are now linking
tariffs to efficiency enhancement, thus providing an incentive for
renovation and modernization. New plants are being encouraged to adopt
more efficient and clean coal technologies, and four new plants under
construction have adopted the more-efficient supercritical technology
for power generation.
• Introduction of Labeling Programme for Appliances: An energy labeling
programme for appliances was launched in 2006, and comparative star
based labeling has been introduced for fluorescent tube lights, air
conditioners and distribution transformers. The labels provide
information about the energy consumption of an appliance, and thus
enable consumers to make informed decisions. Almost all fluorescent tube
lights sold in India, and about two-thirds of the refrigerators and air
conditioners, are now covered by the labeling programme.
• Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) was launched in May, 2007,
which addresses the design of new, large commercial buildings to
optimize the building’s energy demand. Commercial buildings are one
62
 of the fastest growing sectors of the Indian economy, reflecting the increasing Adaptation and Mitigation
share of the services sector in the economy. It has also been incorporated
into the Environmental Impact Assessment requirements for large buildings.
• Energy Audits of Large Industrial Consumers was made mandatory in
large energy consuming units in nine industrial sectors since March
2007. These units, notified as “designated consumers” are also required
to employ “certified energy managers”, and report energy consumption
and energy conservation data annually.
d) Clean Development Mechanism (CDM): CDM is an arrangement under the
Kyoto Protocol allowing industrialized countries with a greenhouse gas
reduction commitment to invest in projects that reduce emissions in
developing countries as an alternative to more expensive emission reductions
in their own countries. In India over 700 CDM projects have been approved
by the CDM National Designated Authority, and about 300 of these have
been registered by the CDM Executive Board. The registered projects have
already resulted in over 27 million tones of certified CO2 emissions
reductions, and directed investment in renewable energy and energy projects
by reducing the perceived risks and uncertainties of these new technologies,
thereby accelerating their adoption.

II) Adaptation Measures to climate impacts in India

Current government expenditure on adaptation to climate variability already
exceeds 2% of the GDP, with agriculture, water resources, health and sanitation,
forests, coastal-zone infrastructure and extreme weather events, being specific
areas of concern. The broad areas where adaptation programmes have been
developed in India include:
a) Crop Improvement Programme addresses technical issues, such as
development of arid-land crops and pest management, as well as capacity
building of extension workers and NGOs to support better through
vulnerability-reducing practices or technologies.
b) Drought Proofing Programme seeks to minimize the adverse effects of
drought on production of crops and livestock, and on productivity of land,
water and human resources, so as to ultimately lead to drought proofing of
the affected areas. They also aim to promote overall economic development
and improve the socio-economic conditions of the resource poor and
disadvantaged sections inhabiting the programme areas.
c) Health Programme is focused on the surveillance and control of vector borne
diseases such as Malaria, Kala-azar (also known as black fever), Japanese
Encephalitis, Filariasis and Dengue. The programmes also provide
emergency medical relief in case of natural calamities, train and develop
human resources for these tasks.
d) Risk Financing Programme is done through two ways the Crop Insurance
scheme which supports the insurance of farmers against climate risks and
the Credit Support Mechanism facilitates through the easy extension of credit
to farmers, especially in instances such as crop failure due to climate
variability or change.
e) The National Disaster Management programme provides grants-in-aid to
63
Climate Change victims of disasters, and manages disaster relief operations. It also supports
proactive disaster prevention programmes, including dissemination of
information and training of disaster-management staff.
f) Livelihood Preservation Programme support income diversification, as well
as minimum employment guarantees in order to enable sustainability of
livelihoods, including in response to loss of livelihoods due to the adverse
impacts of climate.
Check Your Progress 2
Note: a) Use the space given below for your answer.
b) Compare your answers with those given at the end of the unit.
1) Mention some of the mitigation measures adopted by India.
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4.6 ROLE OF INDIVIDUAL, STATE AND CIVIL

SOCIETY FOR SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATION
The nature of global governance on a range of issues, including on climate change,
is today best understood not only as what states do but as a combination of what
the state, civil society and markets do or do not. This is not to imply that they
always or even mostly work in partnership or have synchronous priorities. It
means that they now do so more often than they did, including in terms of global
climate change mitigation (Sathaye et al., 2007). In general, we believe that only
the state can act in the public interest, while industry and citizens are motivated
by self-interest. However, others see all actors as motivated by self-interest, and
in this context, believe competition and the market ensure the best outcomes –
public and private. In this view, civil society, consumers and industry bear greater
responsibility and share the risks, while the state maintains a role in setting
standards and auditing performance. While the roles, responsibilities, and powers
assigned to the respective actor’s remains a hotly contested subject, it is widely
acknowledged that responsibility for the environment and sustainability has
become a much broader project. It is no longer primarily the preserve of
governments, but involves civil society, private sector, and the state (Sathaye et
al., 2007).

4.6.1 Role of Individuals to Slow Down Climate Change

Although the climate change problem is immense, as individuals one can
contribute to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thereby reduce the harmful
effects of climate change through conscious habits such as:
• Share what one has learnt about climate change.

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• Buy more efficient household appliances. Adaptation and Mitigation

• Replace all incandescent bulbs by compact fluorescent bulbs that last four
times longer and use just one-fourth of the electricity.
• Focus on green building architectures.
• Use more fuel-efficient vehicles.
• Avoid keeping the engine idle for long periods of time.
• Avoid motorized vehicles to the maximum possible extent (France and Italy
have ‘No Car Days’ and have limited city parking to alternate days for odd-
and even-licensed numbers.)
• Turn off all lights, television, fans, air conditioners, computers and other
electrical appliance and gadgets when they are not being used.
• Planting trees.
• Recycle all cans, bottles, and plastic bags and buying recycled items as far
as possible.
• Generate as little trash or waste materials as possible, because trash in landfill
emits large quantities of methane, and when burnt, carbon dioxide is released.

4.6.2 State
The transition from government to governance recognizes the changing trends
among political constitutions in developed and developing countries. Importantly,
the speed and scope of the individual state depends on the institutional reforms
by government and market activity, e.g. public executive administration,
legislatures and courts, organization of financial and capital markets, corporate
governance and corporate social responsibility, the strength and engagement of
civil society organizations etc (Sathaye et al., 2007). In particular, these reforms
depend on the pre-existing institutions in a country, the local politics of reform
and resistant domestic interests. Importantly, the re-organization of governance
institutions will have important implications for the choice of potential national
development paths in key input sectors. The choice of policies that governments
seek and are able to pursue is influenced by the political culture and regulatory
policy style of a country or region, and the extent of public expectations that
their governments will take a strong or weak lead in pursuing policy responses.

A substantial body of political theory identifies and explains national policy

styles or political cultures. The underlying assumption is that individual countries
tend to process problems in a specific manner, regardless of the distinctiveness
or specific features of any specific problem; a national ‘way of doing things.’
The key features of prevailing ‘policy styles’ in various countries and regions of
the world are highlighted. Richardson et al. (1982) identified national policy
style as deriving from the interaction of two components “(a) the government’s
approach to problem solving and (b) the relationship between government and
other actors in the policy process.” Using a basic typology of styles, countries are
subdivided according to whether national decision-making is anticipatory or reactive,
and whether the political context is consensus-based or impositional.

An important, though often neglected, issue in the choice of policy instruments is the
institutional capacity of governments to implement the instrument on the ground (Rayner,
1993). This is often a matter of what countries with highly constrained resources think
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Climate Change that they can afford. These attributes include:
• A well developed institutional infrastructure to implement regulation;
• An economy that is likely to respond well to fiscal policy instruments because it
possesses certain characteristics of the economic models of the free market;
• A highly developed information industry and mass communications infrastructure
for educating, advertising, and public opinion formulation; and
• A vast combined public and private annual R&D budget for reducing uncertainties
and establishing pilot programmes (O’Riordan et al., 1998).
To the extent that these close to ideal conditions for conventional policy instruments
are missing, policy-makers are likely to encounter obstacles to their effectiveness. For
example, both Brazil and Indonesia (Petrich, 1993) have carefully crafted forest
protection laws that could be used to secure forest preservation and carbon
management. However, neither country is able to allocate sufficient resources to
monitoring and compliance with those laws to ensure that they are effective. In much
of the developing world, the shortage of programmes resources is exacerbated by
pressures to utilize natural resources to earn foreign income. This increases demands
of population for energy, and pressures to convert forest land to human habitation. As
a result, legislative initiatives often seem to “leave more marks on paper than on the
landscape” (Rayner and Richards, 1994).

Less industrialized countries often have poor infrastructures, exacerbated by lack of

human, financial, and technological resources. In addition, these countries are likely to
focus on more basic considerations of nation building and economic development.
The economic conditions of less-industrialized countries also present opportunities to
achieve both sustainable development goals and emissions reductions measures at
lower cost than in the industrialized countries. The notions of adaptive and mitigative
capacity advanced in the IPCC TAR appear to reinforce the idea that the capacity to
develop and implement climate response strategies are essentially the same as those
required to develop and implement policies across a wide variety of domains. They
are largely synonymous with those of sustainable development. As O’Riordan et al.
(1998) note “the more that climate change issues are routinized as part of the planning
perspective at the appropriate level of implementation, the national and local government,
the firm, the community, the more likely they are to achieve desired goals. Climate
policies per se are hard to implement meaningfully. However, merely
piggybacking climate change onto an existing political agenda is unlikely to
succeed.”

4.6.3 Civil Society

Civil society refers to the arena of un-coerced collective action around shared
interests, purposes and values. Civil society commonly embraces a diversity of
spaces, actors and institutional forms, varying in their degree of formality, autonomy
and power. Civil societies are often populated by organizations such as registered
charities, non-governmental organizations, community groups, women’s organizations,
faith-based organizations, professional associations, trade unions, self-help groups,
social movements, business associations, coalitions and advocacy groups (Sathaye et
al., 2007).

The image of civil society ‘pushing’ for environmental protection and climate change
mitigation policies is the most familiar one. There are numerous examples of civil society
66
organizations and movements seeking to push policy reform at the global, national and Adaptation and Mitigation
even local levels. The reform desired by various interest groups within civil society can
differ. But common to all is the legitimate role civil society has in articulating and
seeking their visions of change through a multitude of mechanisms that include public
advocacy, voter education, lobbying decision-makers, research, and public protests.
Given the nature of the issue, civil society includes not only NGOs but also academic
and other non-governmental research institutions, business groups, and broadly stated
the ‘epistemic’ or knowledge communities that work on better understanding of the
climate change problematic.

Some have argued that civil society has been the critical element in putting global
climate change into the policy arena and relentlessly advocating its importance.
Governments have eventually begun responding to these calls from civil society
for systematic environmental protection and global climate change mitigation
policies. In particular, studies on the negotiation processes of global climate
change policy highlight the role of non-governmental and civil society actors in
advancing the cause of global climate change mitigation. In fact, the IPCC
assessment process itself is a voluntary knowledge community seeking to organize
the state of knowledge on climate change for policymakers. It is an example of
how civil society, and particularly how ‘epistemic’ or knowledge communities
can directly add to or ‘pull’ the global climate policy debate. In addition, the
knowledge communities as well as NGOs have been extremely active and
instrumental in servicing the needs of national and sub-national climate policy.
The Pew Climate Initiative and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment are two
examples of how civil society has created forums and space for discourse by
different actors, and not just civil society actors, to interact and advance the
discussion on where climate change mitigation and sustainable development
policy should be heading. Increasingly, civil society forums such as these are
very cognizant of the need to broaden the participation in these forums to other
institutional sectors of society.
Check Your Progress 3
Note: a) Use the space given below for your answer.
b) Compare your answers with those given at the end of the unit.
1) How can an individual help in slowing down climate change?
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................

4.7 LET US SUM UP

• IPCC defines mitigation as: “an anthropogenic intervention to reduce the
sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.” The climate change
literature views it as “the adjustment in human and natural systems to actual
or expected climatic stimuli, which can reduce the negative impacts and
take advantage of the positive”.

67
Climate Change • It has now been accepted that adaptation is considered as an important response
strategy along with the mitigation in the climate policy; however they are not
mutually exclusive to each other and may be complementary to each other.

• Some mitigation measures adopted by India are (i) Traditional food habits and
recycling processes (ii) Increased industrial energy efficiency (iii) Policies to
promote energy efficiency and renewable energy; (iv) Adoption of various clean
development mechanism. Some of the adaptation strategies adopted by India
are: (i) Crop Improvement Programme; (b) Drought Proofing Programme (c)
Health Programme (d) Risk Financing Programme (e) The National Disaster
Management programme and (f) Livelihood Preservation Programme.

4.8 KEY WORDS

Adaptation : Adjustment to natural or human systems in response to actual
or expected climate stimuli or their effects, which moderates
harm or exploits its beneficial opportunities.
Civil Society : Civil society refers to the arena of un-coerced collective action
around shared interests, purposes and values.
Mitigation : An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or
enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases so that we can
avoid the likelihood of the occurrence of the climatic
variability and extreme events.

4.9 REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED FURTHER

READINGS
Adger, W.N. et al. 2007. “Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints
and capacity. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”,
contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P.
Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, (eds.), Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK, 717-743.
Dutt, G. and Fabian, G. 2008. “Coping with climate change”. Economic and
Political Weekly, 4239-50.
Government of India. 2009. “National Action Plan on Climate Change” Ministry
of Forest & Environment, Government of India.
Kapur, D. et al. 2009. “Climate change: India’s Options”. Economic and Political
Weekly, vol. XLIV, 31, 34-42.
Kavi Kumar, K.S., and Jyoti P. 2001. “Socio-economic Impacts of Climate Change
on Indian Agriculture”. International Review for Environmental Strategies, 2
(2), 277-293.
Klein, R.J.T. et al. 2007. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation.
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of
Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der
Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK,
68
745-777.
Kumar, K.S.K. 2009. “Climate Sensitivity of Indian Agriculture: Do Spatial Adaptation and Mitigation
Effects Matter?” Working Paper no. 45-09, South Asian Network for Development
and Environmental Economics (SANDEE), Kathmandu, Nepal.
McCarthy, J. J. et al. (eds.) 2001. “WG II: Climate Change 2001: Impacts,
Adaptation & Vulnerability”; Cambridge University Press, 1000p.
Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A. and Williams, L. 2006. “The distributional Impacts
of Climate Change on rich and poor countries”. Environment and Development
Economics, 11, pp: 159-178.
Mertz, ole et al. 2009. “Adaptation to climate change in developing countries”.
Environmental Management, 43, pp: 743-752.
Pandve, H.T. 2009. “India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change” Indian
Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 13 (1), 17-9.
Parry M.L. et al (eds). 2007. “Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability”. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, 1000p.
Pielke, R.A. 1998. “Rethinking the role of adaptation in climate policy”. Global
Environmental Change, 8 (2), 159-170.
Pielke, R.A., Gwyn, P., Steve, R. and Daniel, S. 2007. “Lifting the Taboo on
Adaptation”. Nature, 455 (8), 597-598.
Sathaye, J. et al. 2007. “Sustainable Development and Mitigation”, In Climate
Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz,
O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA.
Solomon, S. et al (eds.) 2007. “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science
Basis”. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA, 996p.
Stern, N. 2006. “Stern’s review on Economics of climate change”. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA.

4.10 KEY TO CHECK YOUR PROGRESS

Check Your Progress 1
1) Your answer must include the following points:
• Adaptation is considered as a useful tool along with mitigation in the
current climate policy because: there are certain irreversible impacts of the
climate change that can’t be totally avoided due to the past emission of the
GHGs in the atmosphere;
• Anticipatory and precautionary is more effective, less costly and also
sustainable than forced and reactive adaptation
• The potential impacts of the climate change may be more severe than
the current estimates suggests many irreversible impacts (e.g. severe
hurricane, and melting of Greenland Ice sheets fully etc). On the other
hand, as several million people are already exposed to poverty, the
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Climate Change climatic risk therefore will have non-linear and harder impact on their livelihood
• Immediate benefits can be gained from better adaptation to climate variability
and extreme atmospheric events, and also by removing maladaptive policies
and practices
• The climate change brings opportunities as well as threats – future benefits
can result from climate change; and (vi) There are strong demands from the
vulnerable developing nations to increase their resilience capacity through
international responses in the form of the ‘adaptation’ (Any three)
Check Your Progress 2
1) Your answer must include the following points:
• Some of the mitigation measures adopted by India are: traditional food habits
and recycling processes
• Increased industrial energy efficiency
• Policies to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy
• Adoption of various clean development mechanism
Check Your Progress 3
1) Your answer must include the following points:
• Some of the individual roles that would help in slowing down climate change
are: Buying more efficient household appliances
• Replacing all incandescent bulbs by compact fluorescent bulbs that last four
times longer and use just one-fourth of the electricity
• Focusing on green building architectures
• Using more fuel-efficient vehicles
• Avoiding idling the engine for long periods of time
• Avoiding motorized vehicles to the maximum possible extent
• Turning off all lights, television, fans, air conditioners, computers and other
electrical appliance and gadgets when they are not being used
• Planting trees
• Recycling all cans, bottles, and plastic bags and buying recycled items as far
as possible
• Generating as little trash or waste materials as possible, because trash in
landfills emits large quantities of methane, and if it is burnt, carbon dioxide is
released. (Any five)

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 ANNEXURE–I Adaptation and Mitigation

Proposed Measures by the Orissa Government

Key priorities in different Sectors to Address Climate Change

Agriculture Sector: Climate friendly state agricultural policy; institutional

delivery mechanisms to promote best climate change adaptation practices;
capacity building to cope with climate change; continuing the livelihood-
focused people centric integrated watershed development programmes;
increasing the area under perennial fruit plantation to help cope with uncertain
weather patterns; developing water efficient micro irrigation methods and
individual/ community farm ponds; improving monitoring and surveillance
techniques; developing sustainable soil, water and crop management
practices; breeding studies on major crops for tolerance; and more research
on agricultural implications of climate change.

Coastal Zones and Disasters: Downscaled climate change projections

modeling pertaining to floods; assessing coastal erosion prone areas;
strengthening delivery and monitoring system and preparedness; appropriate
modeling on the impact of sea level rise; and research on coastal biodiversity
impacts.

Energy: Generating cleaner energy through clean coal approaches;

institutional development (capacity building/ restructuring) of energy
department; reduction of transmission and distribution losses; promoting
demand side management and energy efficiency; fly ash utilization and
emission reduction from power plants; promotion of small and medium hydel
plants; harnessing biomass potential; promotion of grid based wind power
generation; maximize solar power generation; development of biogas and
manure management.

Fisheries and Animal Resources: Biotechnology and skilled animal

breeding for developing better adopted species; capacity building on climate
change adaptation of livestock keepers; research on early warning system
for livestock diseases; understanding implications on inland and coastal
aquaculture; developing infrastructure early warning systems for coastal
fishermen.

Forests: Increasing reforestation/ afforestation in degraded areas; protecting

existing forest stocks as carbon sinks; increasing planting on non-forest land;
covering bald hills with suitable species mix; expanding existing mangrove
cover along the coast; assessing fire management strategies; establishing
new systems for community forest users; research on indigenous trees species
and their vulnerability to climate change; assessing threats to biodiversity
and wildlife; obtaining access to updated climate change knowledge; capacity
building of Panchayati Raj institutions/ communities on climate change
adaptation; and new agency for monitoring carbon stock.

Health: Capacity building on climate change mitigation and adaptation;

climate friendly state health policy; undertaking measures to manage vector
borne and water borne diseases; strengthening vector borne disease
management; better approaches to deal with heat wave conditions; deal with
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Climate Change
the physical and psychological impacts post extreme weather events;
addressing drought, nutrition and food security issues; and addressing food
safety arising due to increased ambient temperatures and extreme events.

Industry: Integrating climate concerns in industrial development policies; assessing

GHG profile of industrial clusters; studying heat-island phenomenon at Talcher
and Jharsuguda; training various stakeholders on climate change issues;
implementing compensator water harvesting; streamlining institutional arrangement
between industry and OSDMA; conducting energy efficiency studies in energy
intensive sectors; promoting recovery, recycle and reuse of waste material; and
setting emission standards for thermal power plants.

Water: Expanding hydrometric network; developing flood forecasting models;

downscaling global climate prediction models; increasing the water use efficiency;
construction of water harvesting structures; improving drainage system;
strengthening river health and eco-system monitoring; generating awareness with
Pani Panchayat on climate change and creation of agro-climatic stations.
Source: GoO (2010)

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