DETAILED FORM ANALYSIS.

Not too many people understand how to read form in terms of the calculation involving how to
decipher the weight a horse is carrying by comparison to the distance it was beaten. If you want to
take your betting to a more professional level, then this information is crucial as 1lb in weight can
make all the difference between a horse winning or losing.

I have never trusted the official figures in terms of the distance a horse is slowed down in a race over
depending on the weight it is carrying so over the last 30 years I have developed my own figures
which I believe are as accurate as it is possible to get.

The calculation I use is as follows.

5 and 5.5 furlongs = 3.5 lengths per 1lb.

6 furlongs = 3 lengths per lb.
7 furlongs = 2.5 lengths per lb.
8 and 8.5 furlongs = 2 lengths per lb.

These are the only distances I use when applying this form calculation because once you get above
these distances the weight advantage gets less and less in my opinion.

THE METHOD.

1. Use 3yo + and older horse handicaps only.

2. We are looking for horses returning to a track off a weight which when using the calculation
shown above would mean they would win the race if running to the same level of form.
When looking at form this way I go back as far as ten races. I do this because often,
depending on how a horse has been running, it can take quite a number of races for a horse
to drop enough in the weights for it to be in that window where it can win the race.
3. Only consider horses in the TOP FIVE of the weights so in a 10 runner race you would only
consider the top five horses.
4. The very strongest bets are those horses that have course form. This is not essential but
often a trainer will take a horse back to a course it is proven at when he knows it is in that
window where it can now win again.
5. It is very important that a horse has proved it can win off its current mark so if a horse has an
official rating (OR) of say 75, it must have won off that mark or higher in the past.

Form reading of this nature is nothing new, however they way I interpret it by going back to the last
time the horse ran at the same course is something that so many so-called experts overlook.

It is not just about reading the form; you have to delve into the trainers thought process to see what
they are doing as they will undoubtably know exactly what the horse did last time it ran at the course
and how it is now handicapped. This is why I go back up to ten races as it can take such a long time to
get the horse in a position where it can take advantage of a favourable weight.

This is why you often see horses winning at huge prices that may have six duck eggs against their
name because you often need to look further back for that crucial piece of form as shown in the
first example below with “Bellagio Man”.
EXAMPLE 1.

Bellagio Man: Course Form: 1-4-11

(IRE)

Race Record
Flat placings: 21390/04306021332-2254418850835801

BEST BEST
LIFETIME RECORD RUNS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS OR
TS RPR

Flat Turf 10 1 0 2 £7,902 £10,642 67 76 91

22 3 5 3 £14,167 £35,698 80 84 88

32 4 5 5 £22,068 £46,339 — — —

Form
Non-Runner Info
Breaks (50+ days)
My Rating

WGT / O
DATE DIST. GNG. SP JOCKEY TS RPR
HDGR R

1/10 by shd Golden

29Sep23 Ncs C5Hc 4K 6f St 10-0 p 17/2 H Russell 77 35 86
Duke 9-8

18/20 btn 11L Ascot

22Sep23 Ayr C2Hc 18K 6f GS 9-2 p 40/1 H Russell 69 27 47
Adventure 9-11

8/11 btn 8½L Bishop's

05Aug23 Don C5Hc 6K 6f Sft 9-10 v1 17/2 C Hardie 71 20 53
Crown 9-12

5/16 btn 3¾L Cairn Gorm 9-

28Jul23 Yor C4Hc 10K 6f GS 9-2 p 25/1 C Hardie 73 54 71
9

Hay inner C5Hc 4

21Jul23 6f GS 9-8 p 3/8 btn 5L Knebworth 9-4 16/1 B Robinson 73 57 74
K

8/9 btn 4½L Secret

05Jun23 Wol C4Hc 5K 6f St 9-4 p 14/1 C Hardie 80 30 75
Moment 9-3

11/13 btn 12L Cooperation 9

06May23 Thi C4Hc 5K 6f Sft 9-9 p 18/1 C Hardie 80 36 51
-5

25Mar23 Wol C4Hc 11K 6f St 9-5 p 5/13 btn 3L Probe 9-8 11/2 C Hardie 81 64 82

18Mar23 Wol C4Hc 8K 7f St 9-3 p 8/10 btn 3½L Titan Rock 9-7 5/1 H Russell3 82 30 79
 WGT / O
DATE DIST. GNG. SP JOCKEY TS RPR
HDGR R

14Mar23 Ncs C4Hc 8K 6f St 9-6 p 8/14 btn 3½L Swayze 9-7 8/1 C Hardie 82 65 79

Analysis of the above race with the main points to concentrate on highlighted in yellow.

The horse in question here is “BELLAGIO MAN” won 17/2 from an overnight 16/1 on 29 September
at Newcastle and was top of the weights so qualified as being in the top five.

The last time it ran at Newcastle was on 14 March (9 runs ago) off a mark of 82 where it finished
8/14.

That was over 6 furlongs, and it was beaten 3 ½ lengths.

It did not run again at Newcastle until 29 September off a reduced mark of 77 so 5lb below when it
last ran at Newcastle on 14 March.

We now need to calculate the allowance for the distance it was beaten in comparison with its
current official rating (OR) which is now 77.

Looking at the chart, you can see that we allow 3 lengths per lb over 6 furlongs.

With the horse dropping 5lbs to a mark of 77, the calculation would be 3 lengths x 5lb = 15 lengths.

You then take away the 3 ½ lengths it was beaten when it ran off 82 giving you a figure of 11 ½
lengths in hand off its current weight from the last time it ran at Newcastle.

This obviously does not mean the horse should win by 11 ½ lengths , but what it does mean is that if
the horse runs anywhere near the form it showed of a mark of 82 where is was beaten only 3 ½
lengths, then it has an outstanding chance off a mark of 77. The trainer will obviously know this and
will place the horse accordingly.

The horse was also a course winner previously at Newcastle which although not essential, as
previously mentioned, it does add weight to the strength of the horse as it has proved it can win over
that C&D.

The horse had previously won two handicaps off marks off 80 and 74 so had proved it can win off its
current mark of 77.

RESULT: BELLAGIO MAN won 17/2 from an overnight 16/1.

EXAMPLE 2.

End Zone: Course form: 0-1-3

(GB)

Race Record
Flat placings: 23/91439/617730477821367/69430105453533-4324069041484391

BEST BEST
LIFETIME RECORD RUNS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS OR
TS RPR

18 2 2 5 £6,733 £16,145 65 77 83

Flat Turf 34 4 1 5 £16,410 £29,237 65 71 80

52 6 3 10 £23,143 £45,382 — — —

Form
Non-Runner Info
Breaks (50+ days)
My Rating

WGT /
DATE DIST. GNG. SP JOCKEY OR TS RPR
HDGR

1/11 by nse Highfield

21Sep23 Ayr C6Hc 4K 7f GS 9-11 b 11/1 B A Curtis 62 43 70
Viking 9-9

29Aug23 Rip C5Hc 5K 1m Gd 9-7 b 9/12 btn 6½L Tobetso 9-11 18/1 J Peate3 64 31 58

3/9 btn 3L Sparkle In His

11Aug23 Mus C6Hc 4K 7f Gd 9-11 b 8/1 J Peate3 65 57 64
Eye 9-5

4/12 btn 3½L Mutanaaseq 9-

26Jul23 Cat C6Hc 4K 7f Gd 10-0 b 12/1 J Peate3 66 58 67
9

8/12 btn 6L Time To

17Jul23 Ayr C6Hc 4K 1m GS 9-10 b 9/1 J Hart 66 48 61
Rumble 8-11

The horse in question here is “END ZONE” who won at 11/1 at Ayr on 21 September and was in the
top 5 of the weights.
This horse was not a course winner but had been placed once from three runs.

The last time it ran at Ayr was on 17 July (4 runs ago) off a mark of 66 where it finished 8/12 beaten
6 lengths over 6 furlongs.

It did not run again at Ayr until 21 September off a reduced mark of 62 (Dropped 4lb) from the last
time it ran at Ayr off 66.

End Zone had won four handicaps off marks of 62, 71, 70 and 73 so had proved it was capable of
winning off its current mark of 62.

So again, the calculation over 6 furlongs is 3 lengths per lb. That means with End Zone dropping 4lb,
that equates to 3 lengths x 4lb = 12 lengths. Take away the 6 lengths it was beaten last time it ran at
Ayr off 66 and that leaves the horse with 6 lengths in hand and therefore a strong chance of being
involved.

RESULT: END ZONE. Won 11/1.

EXAMPLE 3.

Green Power: Course form: 1-0-3

(GB)

Race Record
Flat placings: 71256/447081507/430751109/76/5759564045143/5565-512

BEST BEST
LIFETIME RECORD RUNS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS OR
TS RPR

Flat Turf 36 4 1 1 £63,172 £80,686 66 98 102

Stakes 5 0 0 0 — £8,465 66 88 101

9 2 1 1 £6,380 £10,561 66 71 89

45 6 2 2 £69,552 £91,247 — — —

Form
Non-Runner Info
Breaks (50+ days)
My Rating

WGT / O
DATE DIST. GNG. SP JOCKEY TS RPR
HDGR R

2/14 btn 2¾L Kalamunda 9-

18Oct23 Kem C6Hc 3K 1m St/Slw 10-0 5/1 N Callan 66 46 75
9
 WGT / O
DATE DIST. GNG. SP JOCKEY TS RPR
HDGR R

04Oct23 Kem C6Hc 3K 1m St/Slw 9-8 1/13 by 2½L Wizarding 9-8 14/1 N Callan 60 64 71

Kaiya
18Sep23 Bri C6Hc 3K 1m Sft 9-3 5/6 btn 22L Uncle Dick 9-1 11/1 63 — 25
Fraser5

483 days break

5/10 btn 4¾L The Rain

23May22 Wdr C5Hc 4K 1m Gd 9-8 8/1 D Keenan 69 57 68
King 9-7

04May22 Kem C5Hc 4K 7f St/Slw 9-4 6/9 btn 6L Substantial 9-5 11/1 D Keenan 70 38 63

Green Power won 14/1 on 4 October at Kempton and was in the top five of the weights.

The horse had the additional benefit of being a previous course winner with course figures of 1-0-3,
that’s one win and no places from three runs.

The last time it ran at Kempton was on 4 May where it finished 6/9 off a mark of 70 and was beaten
six lengths.

It then ran again at Kempton three runs later off a reduced mark of 60, so a 10lb drop in the weights.

The race was over 1 mile so if you look at the chart you can see that the calculation over 1 mile is 2
lengths per lb.

The calculation therefore is 2 lengths per lb so with Green Power dropping 10lbs this equates to 20
lengths (2 lengths x 10lb = 20 lengths) minus the 6 lengths it was beaten the last time it ran at
Kempton and that leaves the horse in theory with 14 lengths in hand.

The horse had proved it can win off a mark of 60 having previously won four handicaps off marks of
68, 96, 94 and 94.

RESULT. GREEN POWER Won 14/1.

EXAMPLE 4.

Strangerontheshore: Course form: 0-1-1

(GB)

Race Record
Flat placings: 395/03554421177/180315516534-2743257351
 BEST BEST
LIFETIME RECORD RUNS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS OR
TS RPR

Flat Turf 31 5 2 5 £15,019 £26,725 65 68 75

5 1 1 1 £3,140 £6,359 65 57 71

36 6 3 6 £18,159 £33,084 — — —

Form
Non-Runner Info
Breaks (50+ days)
My Rating

WGT / O
DATE DIST. GNG. SP JOCKEY TS RPR
HDGR R

9-11 1/8 by nk Copper

06Oct23 Ncs C6Hc 3K 1m St 11/1 R Scott 62 28 70
p1 Mountain 8-11

27Aug23 Bev C5Hc 5K 1m½f Sft 8-11 5/10 btn 4L Pearl Eye 9-12 15/2 A Jary7 63 40 61

3/9 btn 1½L Eagle Eyed Faye

17Aug23 Bev C6Hc 4K 1m½f GF 9-11 9/2 63 48 68
Tom 9-7 McManoman

7/8 btn 6¼L Nikki's Girl 9-

04Aug23 Wol C6Hc 3K 1m½f St 9-8 7/1 A Jary7 65 31 61
12

5/7 btn 12½L Dandy's Faye

13Jul23 Crl C5Hc 4K 1m1f GS 9-13 3/1F 66 21 43
Angel 8-11 McManoman

2/9 btn nk Lady

30Jun23 Don rnd C5HcF 4K 1m Gd 9-13 11/4F D Allan 65 36 72
Wormsley 9-5

3/5 btn 1½L End Zone 8- Faye

31May23 Ham C5Hc 4K 1m½f GF 9-5 100/30 66 54 70
12 McManoman

22May23 Red C5HcF 4K 1m Gd 9-12 4/11 btn 3¼L Senesi 9-2 9/2 R Scott 66 57 69

7/11 btn 6L The Nu Form Faye

27Apr23 Bev C5Hc 5K 1m2f GS 9-6 11/1 67 56 63
Way 9-8 McManoman

2/6 btn ½L Wadacre

03Apr23 Ncs C5HcF 4K 1m St 9-6 7/1 R Scott 67 38 71
Grace 9-11

Strangerontheshore won at 11-1 at Newcastle on 6 October and was in the top five of the weights.
The horse was not a course winner but had been placed on the only run it had at Newcastle. 0-1-1.

The last time it ran at Newcastle was on 3 April (9 runs ago) off a mark of 67, finishing 2/6, beaten ½
length over 1 mile.

The next time it ran at Newcastle was on 6 October off a reduced mark of 62 so a 5lb drop in the
weights.

The race was over 1mile so the calculation would be 2 lengths x 5lbs = 10 lengths minus the ½ length
it was beaten off 67 and that gives the horse 9 ½ lengths in hand.

The horse had proved it can win off a mark of 62 having previously won 5 handicaps off marks of 64,
62, 61, 59 and 55.

RESULT: STRANGERONTHESHORE Won 11/1.

SUMMARY.

This then is how to identify really well handicapped horses but not only that, you are identifying
horses that the vast majority of people would not have a clue as to how this is done. How many
times have you heard commentators on TV say a horse has been badly out of form and must improve
considerably to win. The horse then wins, and they say it has caused a shock as it was impossible to
predict on its recent form.

A perfect example of this was a race I watched live when a horse called “MASTER OF COMBAT” won
after being backed in from 16/1 the night before into 7/2 on course. The pundits on course were
saying they could not understand why it had attracted such strong support as its season form figures
were
-375569.

If they had taken the time to actually look at the form, rather than just make wild assumptions based
on recent runs, they would have seen exactly why it had been heavily backed, no doubt by the
connections involved.

Six runs ago it had run at Wolverhampton off a lofty mark of 77, beaten just 1 length, yet here it was
now running off just 68 so a whopping 9lb drop in the weights and connections were obviously fully
aware of what the horse was capable of.

As already stated, private handicapping is all about understanding what a trainer is thinking when he
places these horses in certain races. Often when a horse runs at a certain track, that will be the
catalyst for a plan to be put in place to get it down the handicap before returning to that track with a
well handicapped horse that they know can win the race. That is exactly what I am exploiting with my
private handicapping and once you learn how to do this, you have a powerful tool in your armoury to
be one step ahead of the majority of punters.

When you are handicapping horses like this, you can also get meetings done the night before so that
gives you plenty of time to get the studying done. The key is not to rush through the form or you will
miss something, I have done that many times myself so always double check the figures make sure
you have not missed anything.

IMPORTANT STATS AND CRITERIA TO NOTE.

The handicapping of horses is the most important part of stepping your betting up to a professional
level but there are also other important factors to consider once you have identified a selection.

GOING.
Always check that any selection can act on the going, this applies to the turf races only where the
ground can be anything from firm to heavy. It is no good backing a horse on good/firm ground if all
its best form is on soft or heavy ground so always check this. On the AW, this is not as important, and
any selection identified will have already proved it can act on the surface from the handicapping part
of the process.

DRAW.
On certain courses the draw is hugely important, especially on a lot of the AW tracks so again, once
you have identified a selection always check that it has a suitable draw. For example if you have a
horse drawn wide over a sprint trip at say Chester, then the chances of it winning are very slim
indeed and it would be one to leave alone.

PRICES.
What you will find is that a lot of horses you identify will be big prices, especially the night before
because very few people apart from those in the know will have identified them as a potential
winner. What usually happens then, is they start to attract money during the day as was the case
with “Bellagio Man” because connections know they have a well handicapped horse and those in the
know will therefore want to benefit from that knowledge.

CLASS OF RACE.
I tend to avoid class 2 handicaps as they tend to be far too competitive and not the sort of races
where horses have been plotted up in the way we require to take advantage of a generous handicap
mark. The majority of selections will come from the lower-class handicaps where it is much easier to
plot horses up and run them accordingly to get their handicap mark reduced.

DISTANCE OF RACE.
Only consider races between 5 furlongs and 1m ½ furlong.

HOW I GO THROUGH THE DAYS MEETINGS QUICKLY AND EFFICIENTLY.

1. First of all, mark off all the handicaps of between 5 furlongs and 1-mile ½ furlong.
2. Now mark off the top five horses in these races.
3. Now mark off all the horses that have won a handicap off the same mark or higher than their
current mark.
4. Now start looking at the horses past races to see if it has run over today’s course so you can
compare its current official rating (OR) to the rating it had when it last ran at the same
course.
5. You can then use the calculation table as per the examples to see if the horse has any lengths
in hand. A quick example is, if the horse is rated 75 today and the last time it ran at the same
 course, it was rated 78 and was beaten 3 lengths over 1 mile. It is running of a mark 3lbs
lower today so over I mile that is 2 lengths per lb which is 6 lengths. That means off todays
mark of 75, the horse would have 3 lengths in hand and therefore a strong chance of winning
the race.

You now have a very powerful handicapping tool which will point you in the direction of some
outstanding opportunities. Do not be afraid of the prices, a lot of selections are often at double
figure prices because as previously stated, very few people have the necessary knowledge to identify
these handicap good things.

Take your time to digest all the information and examples provided, I use the Racing Post website for
all my study on this as it is very easy to navigate and gives us all the information we require.

**********************************************************************************