E3S Web of Conferences 427, 03037 (2023) https://doi.org/10.

1051/e3sconf/202342703037
ICGEE 2023

Investigating the Risk Factors on Crash Severity for Selected Risky

Roads in Al-Diwaniyah City by Utilizing a Binary Probit Model
Manal G. Al-Zubaidi1, a*, Hamsa Zubaidi1, b and Bassim H. Al-Humeidawi1,c
1Road and Transport Department, University of Al-Qadisiyah, Al-Qadisiyah, Iraq
[email protected], [email protected] and [email protected]
*Corresponding author

Abstract. Traffic crashes are one of the main reasons for the deaths of many people and the loss of property.
Road safety is a crucial aspect of transportation that aims to prevent crashes and injuries on the road, and
several contributing factors affect it. In this study, the binary probit model using the N-Logit software was
applied to crash-related data to examine the contribution of several variables to severe crash outcomes in Al-
Diwaniyah City. Crash severity (the dependent variable) in this study is a dichotomous variable with two
categories, severe and non-severe. Because of the binary nature of this dependent variable, a binary probit
model was found suitable. Out of 37 independent variables obtained from Al-Diwaniyah Hospital traffic crash
reports between 2014 and 2021 and from fieldwork to evaluate the pavement surface condition using the
pavement condition index (PCI), six were statistically significantly associated with severe crashes. These
factors include driver age, spring and summer seasons, pavement surface conditions, pedestrian collisions,
and multi-vehicle crashes. Some proposals were also recommended to reduce traffic crashes, such as using
median barriers to regulate pedestrian crossing, managing a proper number of lanes in the roads to avoid
congestion due to a large number of vehicles, assessing the condition of the pavement surface annually at
least, to identify pavement defects and conduct appropriate maintenance. Therefore, governments and
transportation agencies must prioritize regular pavement condition evaluation as part of their maintenance
programs for roads and highways. In conclusion, road safety is a complex issue that requires a multi-faceted
approach involving various stakeholders such as government agencies, law enforcement agencies, vehicle
manufacturers, drivers, pedestrians, and other road users.

Keywords: Crash severity; pavement condition index; Pavement defects; binary probit model; Risk factors.

1. INTRODUCTION
Despite the growth of the road network and the spread of modern technology used in road design, the
number and seriousness of crashes are increasing worldwide for many reasons, including those related to
human, environmental, or other factors. Although the causes of crashes are usually complex and contain
several factors, they have been divided into four categories: the actions of the driver, the mechanical state of
the vehicle, the geometric characteristics of the road, and the vehicle's climatic surroundings [1]. Roadway
causes account for 3% of all road crashes, whereas a mix of road and non-road variables causes 34%. Human
conduct causes 57% of collisions, but when combined with other variables, it generates 93% of road crashes
[2], see Figure 1.

Figure 1: Proportion of contributing factors to vehicle crashes [2].

Traffic crashes are becoming more common in Iraq, as in many other countries, due to a growth in the
number of cars, a poor transportation infrastructure, poor road design and maintenance, and a lack of gadgets
and programs that serve and organize traffic. Therefore, the situation has deteriorated [3]. According to the
Iraqi Ministry of Health (MoH) Annual Statistical Reports for 2017 and 2019, road traffic deaths are the eighth
largest cause of death in Iraq, with 3.47% in 2017 and the seventh (4.9%) in 2019. A study was conducted in



© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
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E3S Web of Conferences 427, 03037 (2023) https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202342703037
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Iraq to analyze traffic crash rates in the Iraqi governorates for data between 2005 and 2011[4], where there
was a clear increase in crashes from 9010 in 2005 to 22,983 in 2011. The results found that the governorates
of Baghdad, Babel, Basra, and Al-Diwaniyah recorded the highest rate of vehicle overturning on wet roads.
This is due to vehicle slipping, not taking the necessary precautions during rainy weather, and poor road
maintenance [5]. The condition of the pavement is one of the primary factors that cause crashes and increases
their severity due to the city's defective construction or poor maintenance. The influence of road surface
defects on traffic crashes is a global worry. When pavement reaches the end of its useful life, the pavement
surface suffers from distress, making it unable to offer a smooth surface for users. Pavement defects include
raveling, potholes, upheavals, rutting, depressions, shoving, and cracking. This is due to various reasons, such
as water penetration, stress from heavy truck loads, seasonal temperature variations, and sun exposure. As
result of climate change, such as severe rains and snow, damaged pavements Potholes have both internal
and external causes, including the deterioration and reactivity or endurance of the pavement material itself to
climate change, such as excessive rainfall and snowfall, and a lack of quality control and construction
management. Potholes can cause flat tires and wheel damage, reduced vehicle impact and damage, collisions,
and severe crashes [6-9].
A study was conducted on the Japanese island of Shikoku's rural highway networks. This study examines
the empirical links between pavement conditions and crash risk. The Pavement Factors include IRI, cracking
ratio, and rutting depth. The Poisson regression model is used in the analysis. Other data was used in the
study, including AADT, surface condition, weather data, pavement condition data, and crash histories.
According to the model estimation results, rutting depth can considerably raise crash risk, especially in wet
conditions, but the IRI has the opposite effect. This seemingly contradictory finding can be explained by the
driver becoming cautious and slowing down when driving portions with higher IRI scores. In major categories,
the cracking ratio had a considerable effect on increasing crash risk [10]. The literature has indicated several
factors significantly influencing the crash-injury severity level sustained by road users. Driver age and gender,
crash type, weather, lighting conditions, pavement condition, collision of more than two pedestrians, City
streets, the driver was drunk, driver’s actions, Vehicular speed, Road environment, Intersections without signs,
High residential density are some of the most crucial variables, which have been extensively explored as to
their effect on severity [11-14]. Abdel-Aty [15] investigated the effect of resurfacing pavement on multilane
arterials on Florida roads. They used the empirical Bayes technique and discovered that pavement resurfacing
works reduced the total number, seriousness, and rear-end collisions. In traffic safety investigation based on
crash and road maintenance data from Western Sweden, Othman [16] found that wheel rut depth had a
negative impact on traffic safety.
There has become an urgent need to study the impact of the state of pavement and other risk factors on
crash severity because there is no clear study in Iraq, especially in Al-Diwaniyah City, specializing in evaluating
the pavement condition and its impact on traffic safety. So, the study aims to find the relationship between
pavement surface condition and other factors and traffic safety by applying advanced econometric techniques
models.

2. STUDY AREA AND METHODOLOGY

Iraq is one of the largest Arab population nations, with 438,000 sq km of total access area and an overall
population of approximately 40,150,200 million in 2020; nearly 70 % live in urban areas. The study focused on
Al-Diwaniyah City because it lacks much scientific research and studies, especially in the field of traffic safety,
in addition to the deterioration of the economic situation and what is caused by a lack of services, especially
road services. Hence, the city suffers from an acute shortage of paving and road maintenance services. Al-
Diwaniyah City is an Iraqi city in the Middle Euphrates region, with an area of 8153 sq km and a Population of
1,076,658. In this study, the crash data available in Al-Diwaniyah General Teaching Hospital were relied upon
due to the lack of information and data available in the General Traffic Department regarding traffic crashes
on the internal roads in the city. Around 5996 crashes were obtained for the internal roads registered in Al-
Diwaniyah Hospital from 2014 to 2021. Where the percentage of crashes for each road was taken separately,
and then the roads with the highest percentage of crashes were chosen out of the total number of vehicle
crashes in the studied regions, which is (1804) traffic crashes include Al-Askari Street with 707 traffic crashes,
Al-Urouba street with 379 traffic crashes, Al-Wahda street with 271 traffic crashes, Al-Jamhouri street with 235
traffic crashes, Al-Jazaer street with 212 traffic crashes. In this study, some data were collected, including
crash data, speed limit, evaluation of the pavement surface condition by using the pavement condition index
(PCI), and other road characteristics.

2.1 Fieldwork
Pavement Condition Evaluation (PCE) is a critical process that helps to determine the condition of a road
or pavement. It involves assessing various factors, such as surface distress, roughness, and skid resistance,
to determine the overall condition of the pavement. PCE helps identify any road surface hazards that could
pose a risk to motorists, such as potholes, cracks, and uneven surfaces. By identifying these hazards early
on, appropriate measures can be taken to repair or maintain the road surface before crashes occur. The
dimensions and area of the selected roads surface defects to identified pavement condition index for (Al-Askari
Street, Al Wahda Street, Al-Jamhouri Street, Al-Urouba Street, and Al-Jazaer Street), were calculated


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according to the standard specification (ASTM D6433 − 18, 2018) [17]. The pavement Condition Index (PCI),
which indicates the state of the surface road, is one of the various methods for assessing the road's condition.
PCI is a visual survey that produces a numerical range from 0 to 100, with 0 being the worst road condition
with the most surface road defects and 100 representing the best road condition with the least pavement
defects. The PCI evaluates the quantity, severity, and type of pavement surface distress [18].
The most prominent defects that were observed in the study areas were Alligator cracks, Corrugation,
Depressions, Polished Aggregate, Longitudinal and Transverse cracking, Patching, Potholes, Rutting, and
Raveling. Data were obtained from the roads on which the study was conducted and measured manually using
a measuring tape, including the width of the road, the presence of a median or not in the road, and the number
of lanes. Fieldwork results were as follows: Askari Street with 6.7 meters of Road width, no presence of a
median, a number of lanes are two, and a PCI value was 52.1 and pavement surface condition Classified as
poor, Al Wahda Street with 12 meters of Road width, no presence of a median, a number of lanes are three,
and a PCI value was 57.6 and classified as fair, Al-Jamhouri Street with 10 meters of Road width, presence of
a median, a number of lanes are three, and a PCI value was 67.2 and classified as fair, Al-Urouba Street with
10 meters of Road width, presence of a median, a number of lanes are three, and a PCI value was 70.7 and
classified as fair, and Al-Jazaer Street with 10.6 meters of Road width, presence of a median, a number of
lanes are three, and a PCI value was 73.7 and classified as satisfactory. Classified according to the standard
specification [17].

2.2 Theoretical Methodology

This study's main interest is predicting driver injury severity, the dependent variable, as a function of
predictor variables. Due to the lack of available information, the study focused on the severity of the crashes,
where fatal crashes were collected with severe injury under the name of severe, and they were considered as
dependent variables, and the rest of the study variables were independent variables. In this study, binary probit
models were used to model the probability of two possible outcomes of collision severity using the NLogit
program. It is one of the world's most powerful programming languages for statistical computing, machine
learning, and graphics, and it is a language and development environment specialized in data analysis and
representation. The response variable severity of driver injury, severe (grouping of severe and fatal collisions),
or no severe, is a binary outcome. Thus, double regression models have been suitable procedures since their
inception to predict a parallel secondary variable as an action of the indicator factors and create a mathematical
model for the most important factors that have a Specific effect on the crash severity. As a result, the response
variable y can have the following binary values:

y= 1 Yes (fatal or severe)

y= 0 No (no severe)

The binary probit model takes on the form of a binary index response model [19]:

P(y = 1|X) = G(Xβ) = p(X) (1)

In the case of the probit model, in which 𝐺𝐺 (∙) is a cumulative distribution function (CDF), a more general
form of the effect of an explanatory variable 𝑿𝑿 on a binary outcome can be expressed as follows [19]:

y ∗= α + βX + ε With: y = 1[y ∗> 0] (2)

Where 𝑦𝑦 = 1[𝑦𝑦∗ > 0] represents a crash in which an injury occurred (𝑦𝑦 = 0 otherwise). Considering this
formula, the probit model specifies the conditional probability and is a special case of Eq. (1) [19-21]. Using
the presented probit model, the probability of being severe injury crash (i.e., 𝑦𝑦 takes on the value 1) is
computed. Referring to Eq. (1), 𝜷𝜷 is a vector of estimable parameters, and 𝑿𝑿 represents a vector of explanatory
variables (e.g., gender, age, pavement surface condition, weather condition, crash location, speed, collision
with, crash type), and 𝜀𝜀 is a disturbance term with a standard normal distribution. After applying the random
technique, it is found that there are no random parameters in variables to account for heterogeneous effects
and any potential connections among the unknown factors. Finally, the marginal effects are calculated to obtain
the effect of one unit variance of the indicative variable X on injury severity as given by Equation [22]:

∂y
= βi ∅(β° + β1 x1 + β2 x2 + ⋯ + βn xn (3)
∂xi

Following the collection of the necessary data for the study (crash data, assessment of the condition of the
pavement surface, speed limits, driver characteristics, spatial and temporal characteristics, and other road
characteristics), the variables were sorted and indexed in the Excel software, and each variable has its own
code, as shown in Table 1.



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Table 1: The Descriptive statistics for aggregate data.

Variable Code
Severe Injury 1 if Severe Injury is involved, 0 otherwise
Gender Female 1 if Female involved, 0 otherwise
male 1 if Male involved, 0 otherwise
Age18 1 if Age18 is involved, 0 otherwise
Age19-21 1 if Age19-21 involved, 0 otherwise
Driver Age Age 22-35 1 if Age 22-35 involved, 0 otherwise
Age 36-50 1 if Age 36-50 involved, 0 otherwise
Age51-65 1 if Age 51-65 are involved, 0 otherwise
Age 65 1 if age>65 involved, 0 otherwise
Time Morning 1 if the crash occurs (6:00-11:59am), 0 otherwise
Afternoon 1 if the crash occurs (12:00-5:59pm), 0 otherwise
Evening 1 if the crash occurs (6:00-11:59pm), 0 otherwise
Night 1 if the crash occurs (12:00-5:59am), 0 otherwise
collision with Pedestrian 1 if pedestrian involved, 0 otherwise
car 1 if car is involved, 0 otherwise
motorcycle 1 if motorcycle involved, 0 otherwise
Bicycle 1 if Bicycle involved, 0 otherwise
Crash Type Multi-vehicle crash 1 if multi-vehicle crash is involved, 0 otherwise
single-vehicle crash 1 if a single-vehicle crash is involved, 0 otherwise
Weather Spring 1 if (3,4,5) months involved, 0 otherwise
Summer 1 if (6,7,8) months involved, 0 otherwise
Autumn 1 if (9,10,11) months involved, 0 otherwise
Winter 1 if (12,1,2) months involved, 0 otherwise
Pavement Poor 1 if Poor, 0 otherwise
condition Fair 1 if fair, 0 otherwise
Satisfactory 1 if satisfactory, 0 otherwise
Number of lanes Two lanes 1 if two lanes, 0 otherwise
Three lanes 1 if Three lanes, 0 otherwise
Speed Limit 1 if not within the speed limit, 0 within the speed limit
Median 1 if median exists, 0 if no median
Street Width continues

3. RESULTS
3.1 Descriptive Statistics
Table 2 represents the statistical description of the factors that are a significant influence on driver injury
severity, which included human factors (driver age), the cause of the crash (pedestrians), the type of crash
(multi-vehicle collision), weather (spring, summer), the condition of the pavement surface (fair). The results
indicate that the Multi-vehicle collision was found to be the highest value among the other factors, with a mean
of 85%, and fair pavement surface condition was the second highest value, with a mean of 49%.

Table 2: Statistical description of the significant variables.

Variable Mean Standard Deviation
Age1821(1 if driver Age18-21 involved, 0 otherwise 0.181 0.385
Pedestrian (1 if pedestrian involved, 0 otherwise) 0.277 0.448
Multi-vehicle crash (1 if multi-vehicle collision involved, 0 otherwise) 0.854 0.353
Spring (1 if spring is involved, 0 otherwise) 0.229 0.421
Summer (1 if summer is involved, 0 otherwise) 0.2561 0.437
Fair (1 if fair involved, 0 otherwise) 0.491 0.500

3.2 Binary Probit Model Results

The analysis utilized all 1804 observations from our dataset (it could use fewer observations if any of our
variables had missing values). A total of 37 variables were introduced into the NLogit 6 program to find a
statistical model that relates the relationship of the variables to the severity of the traffic crashes and shows
which one affects the severe injury outcome. A Chi-squared likelihood ratio of 45.145 indicates that the model
as a whole is statistically significant. That is, it fits significantly better than a model with no predictors, as the
results of the study showed that there are six variables were found to be statistically significant in the binary
probit, which plays a fundamental role in the severity of the traffic crash within the study sample of the studied
roads in the city of Al-Diwaniyah. These factors affect the severity of the injury of the driver. Table 3 shows the
coefficients, standard errors, t-stat, and marginal effect, of significant factors with a 95% confidence interval of
the coefficients. Out of 37 factors, only age 18-21, pedestrians, multi-vehicle collision, spring and summer
seasons, and the fair pavement surface condition were statistically significant in the binary probit model based
on the parameters calculated in the model.



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The probit regression coefficients give the t-stat or probit index change for a one-unit change in the
predictor. For a one-unit increase in age 18-21, the t-stat value is 2.27 and increases by 0.024. For each one-
unit increase in pedestrians, the t-stat value is 2.43 and increases by 0.024. For each one-unit increase in a
multi-vehicle collision, the t-stat value is 3.17 and increases by 0.040. For each one-unit growth in spring, the
t-stat value is 2.18 and increases by 0.024. For each one-unit increase in Summer, the t-stat value is -1.94
and decreases by -0.019; for each one-unit rise in fair pavement surface condition, the t-stat value is 2.73 and
increases by 0.023. A parameter with a positive sign implies that the severity level of harm for this variable has
increased. In contrast, a parameter with a negative value suggests that the severity level of damage has
reduced. The Log-Likelihood value is -243.98458, McFadden's Pseudo R2 is 0.38, the AIC value is 502.0, and
AIC/N value is 0.278.

Table 3: Significant variables of the binary probit model.

Variable Coefficient Standard Error t-stat Marginal Effect
Constant 1.201 0.146 8.21 -
Age18-21 0.431 0.189 2.27 0.024
Pedestrian 0.415 0.171 2.43 0.024
Multi-vehicle collision 0.451 0.142 3.17 0.040
Spring 0.437 0.20036 2.18 0.024
Summer -0.251 0.129 -1.94 -0.019
Fair 0.341 0.125 2.73 0.023
Log-likelihood function -243.985
Restricted log-likelihood -266.557
Chi-squared 45.145
McFadden Pseudo R-squared 0.38
Inf. Cr AIC 502.0
Estimation based on N 1804
AIC/N 0.278

4. DISCUSSION
4.1 Human Factors
Driver age is a human factor contributing to the severity of traffic crashes. Drivers' ages are considered
potential risk factors. This study divides driver age into five groups: ≦18; 19-21; 22-35; 36-50; and 51-65. The
findings of this study revealed that being between the ages of 18 and 21 significantly affects the severity of a
traffic collision, with a marginal effect of 0.02359. Where the severity of the crash is related to the extent of the
driver's awareness of traffic safety rules and the experience gained from driving a vehicle and knowing the
roads and correct turns, especially at traffic intersections, and the ages within the category above may be less
aware of these limitations or they may not possess a driving license. Many studies also concluded this.
According to a study, young drivers between 20 and 24 were linked to a considerable increase in severity risk
compared to other age groups [23]. Numerous studies have found that younger (fewer than 25) are more likely
to be involved in car crashes. The justifications offered for these hikes have been thoroughly investigated [24],
[25]. These are mostly associated with inexperience and risk-taking behaviors (driving while impaired by
alcohol or other drugs, speeding, etc.) in younger drivers [24-27]. [28] Younger drivers (aged 17–25 years) are
more likely to have right-hand cornering problems, rear-end deflections, and lose control of curves in the dark.
This increases the risk of crashes in this age group. Other studies do not agree with the study's findings, as
these studies found that older drivers are the age group that causes severe traffic crashes [29], [30]. [31]found
that driving speed is negatively correlated with the age of the drivers. Median-aged drivers are less likely to
become involved in serious injury/fatal crashes, in contrast with younger and older drivers [23].

4.2 Weather Conditions

Among the weather conditions considered in this study, the effect of seasonal variation on crash severity
was found to be significant. According to the weather in Iraq, the seasons are divided into winter: December,
January, and February; Spring: March, April, and May; Summer: June, July, and August; autumn: September,
October, and November. Weather condition is one of the factors affecting the severity of traffic crashes.
According to the statistical analysis, the results showed that the spring season increases the risk of severe
collisions with an impact factor of 0.02377. At the same time, the summer season contributes to a decrease in
the risk of traffic crashes with an impact factor of -0.01888. Spring season impacts the severity of crashes
because it witnesses rain, which affects the resistance to slipping. In summer, traffic crashes may decrease
slightly. The weather conditions may be in the best possible condition. Therefore, the paving surface is dry,
which reduces the possibility of the vehicle slipping and thus reduces the severity of the crashes that occurs
for some reason. Summer time does not have a significant detrimental effect on vehicular crashes in the short
term; Summer time significantly reduces vehicular crashes in the long term, with an 8–11% decrease in
pedestrian crashes and a 6–10% decrease in vehicular collisions in the weeks following the switch from Spring
to Summer [32] There are many studies mentioned that Winter season increases the probability of an injury
compared to other seasons, i.e., Fall, Spring, and Summer. There are two impacts of poor weather conditions


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in winter, and drivers frequently slow down to avoid the vehicle slipping due to the poor pavement condition,
which lowers the risk of a tragic collision compared to spring. Snow or ice, on the other hand, lengthens the
braking distance and increases skidding, which causes more injury collisions compared to Summer [33].

4.3 Pavement Surface Condition

The condition of the pavement surface affects the severity of the traffic crash due to damage to the
pavement surface or for any other reason. The study concluded that the fair pavement surface condition affects
the severity of the traffic collision with a marginal effect coefficient of 0.023 and a 95% confidence interval. The
accumulation of cracks in a road increases the risk of injury to the driver because it reduces the efficiency of
the pavement surface and thus reduces the design life of the road. The authors [34] investigated the link
between pavement roughness and distresses such as potholes, rut depth, raveling, cracking, and patch
deterioration. The study found the primary contributors to pavement roughness are potholes, totally cracked
areas, and raveling. Anastasopoulos [35] found through statistical analysis that the pavement's roughness
increases the frequency of traffic crashes. Rut depth and patching, on the other hand, have a relatively minor
influence on the roughness of the pavement. The rate of collapse increases when the international roughness
index (IRI) or rut depth exceeds certain criteria [36]. In this study, potholes constituted 36%, 18% rutting, 71%
longitudinal and transverse cracks, 33% alligator cracks,11% groove, and 21% depression of the total sections
in the study area, which causes an increase in the roughness of the pavement surface.
Figure 2 can illustrate the relationship between crash rate and rutting. The total rutting areas for each road
were calculated to find their relationship to the crash rate of the roads using the SPSS program. Through the
figure, the effect of rutting is shown, as we notice an increase in the number and seriousness of traffic crashes
by increasing the rutting in the surface of the pavement because it can cause hydroplaning, which leads to the
vehicle being pulled into the rutted the condition of the pavement surface affects the severity of the traffic crash
that occurs due to damage to the condition of the pavement surface or for any other reason. The study
concluded that the fair pavement surface condition affects the severity of the traffic collision with a marginal
effect coefficient of 0.023 and a 95% confidence interval. The accumulation of cracks in a road increases the
risk of injury to the driver because it reduces the efficiency of the pavement surface and thus reduces the
design life of the road. Chandra et al. [34] investigated the link between pavement roughness and distresses,
such as potholes, rut depth, raveling, cracking, and patch deterioration. The study found the primary
contributors to pavement roughness are potholes, totally cracked areas, and raveling. Anastasopoulos [35]
found through statistical analysis that the pavement's roughness increases the frequency of traffic crashes.
Rut depth and patching, on the other hand, have a relatively minor influence on the roughness of the pavement.

Figure 2: Relationship between crash rate and rutting.

The rate of collapse increases when the international roughness index (IRI) or rut depth exceeds certain
criteria [36]. In this study, potholes constituted 36%, 18% rutting,71% longitudinal and transverse cracks,33%
alligator cracks,11%corrugation, and 21% depression, of the total sections in the study area, which causes an
increase in the roughness of the pavement surface. Figure 2 can illustrate the relationship between crash rate
and rutting. Where the total rutting areas for each road were calculated to find their relationship to the crash
rate of the roads using the SPSS program. Through the figure, the effect of rutting is shown, as we notice an
increase in the number and seriousness of traffic crashes by increasing the rutting in the surface of the
pavement because it can cause hydroplaning, which leads to the vehicle being pulled into the rutted track.
Loss of control of the vehicle, especially in bad weather conditions and with other factors that affect the severity
of the crash. The effect of the number of potholes on the crash rate can also be illustrated in Figure 3, where
the total number of potholes for each road was recorded to find its relationship to the crash rate of the roads.
Potholes represent a major obstacle for vehicles on the road, as they impede their movement and may cause



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a decrease in speed or a sudden stop of the vehicle, where the driver's reaction is unexpected for the following
vehicles. Thus it may cause a collision between vehicles. The collision with the pothole causes significant
damage, which increases the severity of the crash, especially at high speeds.

Figure 3: Relationship between crash rate and potholes.

4.4 Pedestrian collisions

Collisions between pedestrians and vehicles are an unfortunate part of modern life, with often tragic and
costly outcomes. In this study, collisions with a car, a motorcycle, a bicycle, and pedestrians were analyzed to
determine the most significant factor that impacted the severity of the crash. A collision with a pedestrian
directly constitutes a more significant risk with a marginal effect of 0.02380, and the percentage of crashes
with pedestrians was 28%. Where pedestrians involved in collisions are at a disadvantage relative to drivers
or vehicle occupants, US pedestrian fatalities [37] are between 11 and 12% of all traffic-related fatalities. Most
safety programs aim to reduce the frequency of pedestrian and vehicle collisions, but few have specifically
focused on reducing the risk of severe injury or death [38]. More than two-thirds of pedestrian deaths occurred
in cities, with only 13% of cities responsible for more than two-thirds of all pedestrian deaths between 1997
and 2006 [37]. The vehicle's collision speed most significantly influences the severity of the pedestrian's
damage. The danger of injury is more serious for the lower extremities and cranium. When the vehicle's speed
is below 30 km/h, a substantial reduction in all injuries can be obtained for all kinds of vehicles [39].

4.5 Collision Type

Many reasons lead to crashes and serious injuries, including high speed, lack of attention, alcohol, car
derailment, etc., leading to a collision, rollover, run-over, or something else. It has been noted from the data
obtained that the type of collision for the crash recorded in the hospital was a collision, and the type of collision
was determined as a single-vehicle crash or multi-vehicle crash. The analysis found that the collision of the
vehicle with another vehicle or several vehicles is a statistically significant factor that increases the severity of
the traffic crash, with a marginal effect of 0.04016. Schneider [40] found that in single-vehicle crashes, the
probability of fatal injury increases by approximately 2% for every 1% rise in speed. Among multiple vehicle
collisions, fatalities were 2.9 and 2.2% more likely for similar speed increases at the intersection and non-
intersection locations. When trucks or motorcycles are engaged in a multi-vehicle crash, the driver's injuries
and deaths can be more serious. It has been found that poor illumination and poor weather conditions greatly
increase the intensity of multi-vehicle collision injuries.

5. CONCLUSIONS
• Evaluating the pavement surface condition, identifying road surface defects for proper maintenance, and
resurfacing roads to maintain ride quality and skid resistance within the approved specifications in road
design.
• Awareness of traffic safety rules through the preparation of special plans and programs that urge
cooperation between people and traffic to adhere to traffic instructions and speed limits, avoid high
speeds, use alcoholic substances, stress the possession of a driver's license and a seat belt, and hold
violators and defaulters accountable.
• Conducting more research on the risk factors that increase the severity of traffic collisions to reduce their
impact as it can:



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ICGEE 2023

• Allocating special crossings for pedestrians to reduce pedestrian crashes, and special bridges can be
established for that.
• Designing roads according to the standards of modern technology and suitable for high traffic loads,
managing a proper number of lanes in the roads to avoid congestion due to a large number of vehicles,
street width, in addition to other characteristics of the road such as curvature of the road, the presence of
median, and others.
• Carrying out emergency maintenance, preparing special equipment for that, and manpower equipped for
any emergency, especially during the rainy seasons, in anticipation of any emergency.
• The competent authorities, especially the General Traffic Directorate, must record all crash information in
a special form traffic crash, whether for internal or external roads and facilitate the obstacles for
researchers interested in traffic safety.

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