TD PATD
TD PATD
Exercice 1. Considérons des patients qui se rendent au cabinet d’un médecin. Ces patients arrivent au
cabinet à des instants ti, de manière totalement aléatoire. Soit X n une variable qui dénote le temps d’attente
du patient (exprimé en heures, h) avant qu’il accède pour être effectivement diagnostiqué par le médecin.
1. Décrire un PA Xn , n 1 ?
2. Dessiner une réalisation type de ce PA Xn ?
Solution.
1. Le PA Xn est un processus à temps discret. Toutefois :mais il est à valeurs continues. L’espaceest SX
={x: x≥0}. L’ensemble des indices des parameters est (domain of time) est: I ={1,2,3,···}.
2. un exemple de réalisation est:
Exercice 2.
1.
2.
NB.
- Pour une v.a. discrète X, la PMF (fonction de masse de probabilité) est une fonction f définie
- par f(x) := P(X=x)
- Pour une v.a. discrète X, chaque ... p(X) représente la fonction masse (de probabilité) ( p.m.f.)
pour X.
Solution.
Noter que Xn est un P.A. i.i.d. et pour chaque n fixé, Xn est une v. a. de Bernoulli avec p = 1/3 . On a; E[X n]
= p = 1/3 et var[Xn] = p.(1−p) = (1/3).(2/3) = 2/9
E[X2n] = var (Xn) + E2(Xn) = 2/9 + (1/3)2 = 2/9+1/9 =3/9 =1/3
1
Université de Gabes, ENIG Module TS. Mr CHIBANI B.
TD. PATD, GCR2 24-25
1. Pour chaque n fixé, Yn est une v.a. binomiale avec p = 1/3. On obtient:
Exercice 3.
2
Université de Gabes, ENIG Module TS. Mr CHIBANI B.
TD. PATD, GCR2 24-25
Exercice 4.
Fin
3
Université de Gabes, ENIG Module TS. Mr CHIBANI B.
TD. PATD, GCR2 24-25
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Example — Random Telegraph signal
Let a random signal X(t) have the structure X(t) = (−1) N(t)Y, t ≥ 0, 3where {N(t),t ≥ 0} is a homogeneous
Poisson process with intensity λ and Y is a binary random variable with p(Y = 1) = p(Y = −1) = 1/2 which
is independent of N(t) for all t. Signals of this structure are called random telegraph signals. Random
telegraph signals are basic modules for generating signals with a more complicated structure. Obviously,
X(t) = 1 or X(t) = −1 and Y determines the sign of X(0). Since |X(t)|2 = 1 < ∞ for all t ≥ 0, the stochastic
process {X(t),t ≥ 0} is a second order process. Letting I(t) = (−1)N(t), its trend function is m(t) = E[X(t)] =
E[Y ]E[I(t)]. Since E[Y ] = 0, the trend function is identically zero: m(t) ≡ 0. It remains to show that the
covariance function C(s,t) of this process depends only on |t −s|. This requires the determination of the
probability distribution of I(t). A transition from I(t) = −1 to I(t) = +1 or, conversely, from I(t) = +1 to I(t) =
−1 occurs at those time points where Poisson events occur, i.e. where N(t) jumps. P(I(t) = 1) = P(even
number of jumps in [0,t]) ∞ =e−λt i=0 (λt)2i (2i)! = e−λtcoshλt, P(I(t) = −1) = P(odd number of jumps in
[0,t]) ∞ =e−λt Hence the expected value of I(t) is (λt)2i+1 i=0 (2i +1)! = e−λtsinhλt. E[I(t)] = 1 · P(I(t) =
1)+(−1)·P(I(t) = −1) =e−λt[coshλt −sinhλt] =e−2λt. Since C(s,t) = COV[X(s),X(t)] = E[(X(s)X(t))] =
E[YI(s)YI(t)] =E[Y2I(s)I(t)] = E(Y2)E[I(s)I(t)] and E(Y2) = 1, C(s,t) = E[I(s)I(t)]. Thus, in order to
evaluate C(s,t), the joint distribution of the random vector (I(s),I(t)) must be determined. In view of the
homogeneity of the increments of {N(t),t ≥ 0}, for 4s <t, p1,1 = P(I(s) = 1,I(t) = 1) = P(I(s) = 1)P(I(t) = 1|
I(s) = 1) =e−λscoshλs P(even number of jumps in (s,t]) =e−λscoshλs e−λ(t−s) coshλ(t − s)
=e−λtcoshλscoshλ(t −s). Analogously, p1,−1 = P(I(s) = 1,I(t) = −1) = e−λtcoshλssinhλ(t−s) p−1,1 = P(I(s)
= −1,I(t) = 1) = e−λtsinhλssinhλ(t−s) p−1,−1 = P(I(s) = −1,I(t) = −1) = e−λtsinhλscoshλ(t−s). Since
E[I(s)I(t)] = p1,1 + p−1,−1 − p1,−1 − p−1,1, we obtain C(s,t) = e−2λ(t−s),s < t. Note that the order of s and
t can be changed so that C(s,t) = e−2λ|t−s|. Example 5 A random process is defined by X(t) = T +(1−t)
where T is a uniform random variable in (0,1). (a) Find the cdf of X(t). (b) Find mX(t) and CX(t1,t2).
Solution Given that X(t) = T +(1−t), where T is uniformly distributed over (0,1), we then have P[X(t) ≤ x]
= P[T ≤ x−(1−t)]; 0 y <0 P[T ≤y] = Write x−(1−t) = y, then y 1 FX(x) = P[X(t) ≤ x] = P[T ≤ x−(1−t)] = 0
<y <1 y >1 0 . x <1−t x−(1−t) 1−t<x<2−t 1 x >2−t 5 ;fX(x) = d dxFX(x) = 1 . 0 2−t mX(t) = Note that E[T]
= 1 2 and E[T2] = 1 3 . 1−t x dx = x2 2 1 −t<x<2−t otherwise 2−t 1−t = 3 2 −t. Alternatively, mX(t) =
E[X(t)] = E[T +(1 −t)] = 1−t+E[T] = 3 2 −t. Define RX(t1,t2) = E[{T +(1−t1)}{T +(1−t2)}] =E[T2]+(1−t1
+1−t2)E[T]+(1−t1)(1−t2) and observe CX(t1,t2) = RX(t1,t2) − mX(t1)mX(t2) = 1 3 + (2−t1 −t2) 2 = 1 12
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Cf.chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.math.hkust.edu.hk/~maykwok/courses/ma
246/ 04_05/04MA246EX_Ran.pdf.