Company Update

Institutional Research
India I Auto & Auto Ancillaries
01 December, 2024

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd BUY

Price: Rs11,058
Signs of recovery post-festive led by UV and Exports Target Price: Rs16,060
Forecast return: 45%
Maruti Suzuki’s sales volume in Nov-24 increased by 10.4% to 1, 81,531 units YoY. Domestic Market Data
business volumes grew by 8.1%. YoY, yet strong performance in exports volumes seen with Bloomberg: MSIL IN
24.8% growth. Softness in entry level segment continued in November as volume declined 52 week H/L: 13,680/9,738
by 4.7% (46.5% of domestic sales). Mid-size segment grew by 114.7% on a lower base, while Market cap: Rs3476.8bn
UV sales increased by 20.4% YoY to 59.0k units (declined 16.5% sequentially). Van/LCV sales
Shares Outstanding: 314.4mn
grew by 3.5%/16.6% YoY respectively. Sales to Toyota continued upwards momentum in
Free float: 38.3%
Nov’24 with 79.6% growth YoY at 8,660 units. We note MSIL's strategy of new launches,
strong exports demand (achieving 3mn cumulative exports), and efforts to normalize Avg. daily vol. 3mth: 6,29,992
Source: Bloomberg
inventory levels contributing to its volume growth and robust sales performance. With long
term growth drivers remained intact driven by, (1) Insistent strong growth in SUVs (~45% Changes in the report
of domestic sales), (2) Increasing penetration of CNG ~35% of volumes, (3) surge in exports Rating: Unchanged
and (4) visibility on EV launches. We remain upbeat on MSIL’s long-term operating Target price: Unchanged
performance and retain BUY rating with TP of Rs16,060 (implying 27.8x H1FY27E EPS). EPS: Unchanged
MSIL’s sales volume increased by 10.4% to 181,531 units, mini + compact declined by 4.7% Source: Centrum Broking
Maruti Suzuki’s sales volume in Nov-24 increased by 10.4% to 181,531 units YoY. Domestic MSIL relative to Nifty 50
business volumes grew by 8.1%. YoY to 152,898 units, strong performance in exports volumes
continued during the month which grew 24.8% to 28.6K units. Softness in entry level segment
continued in November as volume declined by 4.7% (46.5% of domestic sales). Mid-size
segment grew by 114.7% on a lower base, UV sales increased by 20.4% YoY to 59.0k units
though declined 16.5% sequentially. Van/LCV sales grew by 3.5% and 16.6% YoY respectively.
Sales to Toyota continued upwards momentum in Nov’24 with 79.6% growth YoY at 8,660
units. We note MSIL's strategy of new launches including facelifts, strong exports demand
(achieving 3mn cumulative exports), and efforts to normalize inventory levels contributing to
its volume growth and robust sales performance. Source: Bloomberg
Continued new launches to help MSIL in volume gains
Shareholding pattern
During the month, MSIL introduced the all-new Dzire, which has received a 5-star GNCAP
Sep-24 Jun-24 Mar-24 Dec-23
safety rating and is built on the advanced 5th-generation HEARTECT platform. Additionally,
Promoter 58.2 58.2 58.2 58.2
company also unveiled its first mass-produced BEV, the e-Vitara, in Milan, while management
FIIs 17.7 19.0 19.6 20.6
indicated the production may begin at Suzuki Motor Gujarat (SMG) by Q4FY25, with sales in
DIIs 20.9 19.5 19.0 17.8
Europe, India, and Japan hitting by summer 2025. Half of the e-Vitara's output will be
exported to Japan and Europe. We believe much-awaited entry in EVS by Suzuki, with the Public/other 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.4
addition of the BEV to MSIL’s portfolio will benefit company immensely as MSIL would be Source: BSE
largest domestic player with multiple powertrain technologies (Hybrid, CNG, Petrol, & EV)
covering all the white spaces in its portfolio.
Valuation and risk – maintained BUY rating with target price of Rs16,060
As highlighted in our initiating coverage with renewed focus on fuel efficient models such as
CNG/hybrid and strong line-up for SUVs despite short term weakness in hatchback segment,
we expect MSIL’s performance to be driven by, (1) reshaping of portfolio driven by SUVs
including facelifts, (2) visibility on EV entry by FY25 with strong line up of models, and (3)
consolidation of SMG plant expanding volumes. We believe with aggressive new launches,
greenfield/brownfield expansion and additional EV line in SMG expected to lift MSIL’s
performance. We maintain BUY with TP of Rs16,060 (implying 27.8x H1FY27E EPS). Risk;
renewed competition in SUV & slower industry growth.
Financial and valuation summary
YE Mar (Rs mn) FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E FY27E
Revenues 11,75,229 14,09,326 15,46,027 17,61,065 19,76,666
Auto & Auto Ancillaries

EBITDA 1,10,077 1,64,011 1,88,615 2,18,372 2,49,060

Shirish Pardeshi
EBITDA margin (%) 9.4 11.6 12.2 12.4 12.6
Research Analyst, Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Adj. Net profit 80,492 1,32,094 1,44,898 1,67,633 1,93,202 +91-22-4215 9634
Adj. EPS (Rs) 266.5 431.1 472.9 547.1 630.5 [email protected]
EPS growth (%) 113.7 61.7 9.7 15.7 15.3
PE (x) 41.5 25.6 23.4 20.2 17.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 30.4 20.1 17.5 15.1 13.3
PBV (x) 5.5 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.8 Amit Dhameja
RoE (%) 14.1 18.3 16.2 16.7 17.0 Associate, Auto & Auto Ancillaries
RoCE (%) 14.1 18.3 16.3 16.7 17.0 +91-4215000
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking [email protected]

Please see Disclaimer for analyst certifications and all other important disclosures.
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 01 December, 2024

Thesis Snapshot
Estimate revision Valuations
FY25E FY25E FY26E FY26E As highlighted in our initiating coverage with renewed focus on fuel efficient
YE Mar (Rs mn) % chg % chg
New Old New Old models such as CNG/hybrid and strong line-up for SUVs despite short term
Revenue 15,46,027 15,46,027 0.0 17,61,065 17,61,065 0.0 weakness in hatchback segment, we expect MSIL’s performance to be driven
EBITDA 1,88,615 1,88,615 0.0 2,18,372 2,18,372 0.0 by, (1) reshaping of portfolio driven by SUVs including facelifts, (2) visibility on
EBITDA margin 12.2 12.2 0bp 12.4 12.4 0bp EV entry by FY25 with strong line up of models, and (3) consolidation of SMG
Adj. PAT 1,44,898 1,44,898 0.0 1,67,634 1,67,634 0.0 plant expanding volumes. We believe with aggressive new launches,
greenfield/brownfield expansion and additional EV line in SMG expected to lift
Diluted EPS (Rs) 473.5 473.5 0.0 547.8 547.8 0.0
MSIL’s performance. We maintain BUY with TP of Rs16,060 (implying 27.8x
Source: Centrum Broking
H1FY27E EPS). Risk; renewed competition in SUV & slower industry growth.
Maruti Suzuki India vs. NIFTY 50 Valuations Rs/share
1m 6m 1 year DCF based target price (Rs) 16,060
MSIL IN (0.3) (10.7) 4.6 WACC (%) 9.3
NIFTY 50 (0.7) 7.1 19.1 Terminal growth (%) 5.3
Source: Bloomberg, NSE
P/E mean and standard deviation
Key assumptions 70

YE Mar FY25E FY26E 60

Volumes growth YoY 6.0% 8.0% 50
Average realisation growth YoY 2.0% 4.0% 40
EBITDA Margins 12.2% 12.4%
Source: Centrum Broking
30
20
10
Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22

Nov-23

Nov-24
May-20

May-21

May-22

May-23

May-24
P/E Mean
Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

EV/EBITDA mean and standard deviation

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22

Nov-23

Nov-24
May-20

May-21

May-22

May-23

May-24

EV/EBITDA Mean
Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev

Peer comparison
Mkt Cap CAGR (FY25E - 27E) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE
Company
(Rs Bn) Sales EBITDA EPS FY25E FY26E FY27E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY25E FY26E FY27E
MSIL 3,481 13.1 14.9 15.5 23.4 23.4 23.4 17.5 15.1 13.3 16.2 16.7 17.0
Tata motors 2,894 7.9 10.0 17.1 18.0 15.0 15.0 6.34 5.56 5.24 32.3 28.9 28.9
M&M 3,688 12.9 14.1 13.5 19.5 18.3 18.3 20.88 18.10 16.04 21.1 19.1 19.1

Centrum Institutional Research 2

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 01 December, 2024

Exhibit 1: Monthly sales volume and sales %

Unit sold Nov-24 Nov-24E Diff Nov-23 YoY % Oct-24 MoM % Nov-24 Nov-23 Oct-24
Mini 9,750 9,832 -0.8 9,959 -2.1 10,687 -8.8 6.4% 7.0% 6.2%
Compact 61,373 59,353 3.4 64,679 -5.1 65,948 -6.9 40.1% 45.7% 38.1%
Mini+Compact 71,123 69,185 2.8 74,638 -4.7 76,635 -7.2 46.5% 52.8% 44.2%
Mid-size 597 610 -2.2 278 114.7 659 -9.4 0.4% 0.2% 0.4%
UV 59,003 59,341 -0.6 49,016 20.4 70,644 -16.5 38.6% 34.6% 40.8%
Vans 10,589 10,488 1.0 10,226 3.5 11,653 -9.1 6.9% 7.2% 6.7%
LCV 2,926 2,990 -2.2 2,509 16.6 3,539 -17.3 1.9% 1.8% 2.0%
To Toyota 8,660 8,717 -0.7 4,822 79.6 10,136 -14.6 5.7% 3.4% 5.8%
Domestic volume 1,52,898 1,51,331 1.0 1,41,489 8.1 1,73,266 -11.8 84.2% 86.0% 83.9%
Exports 28,633 27,861 2.8 22,950 24.8 33,168 -13.7 15.8% 14.0% 16.1%
Total 1,81,531 1,79,192 1.3 1,64,439 10.4 2,06,434 -12.1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data

Exhibit 2: Volume and growth YoY (%) Exhibit 3: Revenue trend YoY (%)
Volumes (Mn Units) YoY (%) Revenue (Rs Mn) YoY (%)
0.58

3,82,349
0.70 50

3,72,028
3,70,621
0.55

3,55,314
0.54
0.52
0.52

3,33,087
0.51

3,23,269
0.50

3,20,480
0.50
0.49

2,99,308
0.60 5,00,000 60
0.47

0.47

2,90,443
40

2,67,400

2,64,998
0.50 4,00,000 50
30
0.40 40
20 3,00,000
0.30 30
10 2,00,000
0.20 20
0.10 0 1,00,000 10
0.00 -10 0 0
4QFY22

1QFY24
1QFY23

2QFY23

3QFY23

4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

4QFY22

1QFY23

2QFY23

3QFY23

4QFY23

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data

Exhibit 4: PAT and margin trend (%) Exhibit 5: EBITDA and margin trend (%)
PAT (Rs Mn) Margin (%) EBITDA (RS Mn) Margin (%)
47,842

46,850
38,778

45,023
37,165

44,166
36,499

50,000 12 60,000 16
39,079
31,300

30,692

33,503
26,236

10 50,000
24,851

29,830
28,331

40,000 14
23,513

27,689
20,615

24,268
18,389

8 40,000
19,121

30,000 12
10,128

6 30,000
20,000 10
4 20,000
10,000 2 10,000 8
0 0 0 6
4QFY22

1QFY23

2QFY23

3QFY23

4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

4QFY22

1QFY23

2QFY23

3QFY23

4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data

Centrum Institutional Research 3

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 01 December, 2024

P&L Balance sheet

YE Mar (Rs mn) FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E FY27E YE Mar (Rs mn) FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E FY27E
Revenues 11,75,229 14,09,326 15,46,027 17,61,065 19,76,666 Equity share capital 1,510 1,572 1,572 1,572 1,572
Operating Expense 8,62,435 10,06,067 11,03,863 12,57,400 14,11,340 Reserves & surplus 6,02,310 8,38,248 9,42,274 10,61,175 12,02,500
Employee cost 46,051 54,784 58,749 66,920 75,113 Shareholders fund 6,03,820 8,39,820 9,43,846 10,62,747 12,04,072
Others 1,56,666 1,84,464 1,94,799 2,18,372 2,41,153 Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0
EBITDA 1,10,077 1,64,011 1,88,615 2,18,372 2,49,060 Total debt 12,473 1,186 1,162 1,058 2,462
Depreciation & Amortisation 28,233 30,223 39,239 47,862 53,859 Non Current Liabilities 0 0 0 0 0
EBIT 81,844 1,33,788 1,49,376 1,70,510 1,95,201 Def tax liab. (net) (3,411) (1,124) (1,012) (862) (662)
Interest expenses 1,866 1,932 664 622 299 Total liabilities 6,12,882 8,39,882 9,43,996 10,62,944 12,05,873
Other income 21,613 38,548 41,944 46,413 54,391 Gross block 3,90,593 4,29,136 5,05,136 5,95,136 6,72,136
PBT 1,01,591 1,70,404 1,90,655 2,16,301 2,49,292 Less: acc. Depreciation (2,11,655) (2,41,878) (2,81,117) (3,28,979) (3,82,838)
Taxes 21,099 38,310 45,757 48,668 56,091 Net block 1,78,938 1,87,258 2,24,019 2,66,157 2,89,298
Effective tax rate (%) 20.8 22.5 24.0 22.5 22.5 Capital WIP 28,081 63,034 67,034 52,034 50,034
PAT 80,492 1,32,094 1,44,898 1,67,633 1,93,202 Net fixed assets 2,07,019 2,50,292 2,91,053 3,18,191 3,39,332
Minority/Associates 0 0 0 0 0 Non Current Assets 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring PAT 80,492 1,32,094 1,44,898 1,67,633 1,93,202 Investments 4,77,564 6,46,015 7,17,077 8,03,126 9,39,657
Extraordinary items 0 0 0 0 0 Inventories 42,838 41,196 42,340 48,229 54,134
Reported PAT 80,492 1,32,094 1,44,898 1,67,633 1,93,202 Sundry debtors 32,958 46,013 50,828 57,898 43,324
Cash & Cash Equivalents 377 43,722 29,101 35,575 22,244
Ratios Loans & advances 299 328 298 268 238
YE Mar FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E FY27E
Other current assets 67,321 74,158 75,641 79,423 83,394
Growth (%) Trade payables 2,04,994 2,48,328 2,47,720 2,63,768 2,58,943
Revenue 33.1 19.9 9.7 13.9 12.2 Other current liab. 0 0 0 0 0
EBITDA 93.1 49.0 15.0 15.8 14.1
Provisions 10,500 13,514 14,621 15,998 17,508
Adj. EPS 113.7 61.7 9.7 15.7 15.3
Net current assets (71,701) (56,425) (64,133) (58,373) (73,116)
Margins (%) Total assets 6,12,882 8,39,882 9,43,996 10,62,944 12,05,873
Gross 26.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6
EBITDA 9.4 11.6 12.2 12.4 12.6 Cashflow
EBIT 7.0 9.5 9.7 9.7 9.9 YE Mar (Rs mn) FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E FY27E
Adjusted PAT 6.8 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.8 Profit Before Tax 1,01,591 1,70,404 1,90,655 2,16,301 2,49,292
Returns (%) Depreciation & Amortisation 28,233 30,223 39,239 47,862 53,859
ROE 14.1 18.3 16.2 16.7 17.0 Net Interest 1,866 1,932 664 622 299
ROCE 14.1 18.3 16.3 16.7 17.0 Net Change – WC 10,570 28,069 (6,913) 714 1,413
ROIC 52.9 71.6 64.9 62.3 64.4 Direct taxes (22,483) (36,023) (45,645) (48,518) (55,891)
Turnover (days) Net cash from operations 1,19,777 1,94,605 1,78,001 2,16,981 2,48,972
Gross block turnover ratio (x) 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.9 Capital expenditure (68,785) (73,496) (80,000) (75,000) (75,000)
Debtors 8 10 11 11 9 Acquisitions, net 0 0 0 0 0
Inventory 17 15 14 13 13 Investments (69,931) (2,07,573) (76,062) (78,049) (1,34,531)
Creditors 81 82 82 74 68 Others 0 0 0 0 0
Net working capital (22) (15) (15) (12) (14) Net cash from investing (1,38,716) (2,81,069) (1,56,062) (1,53,049) (2,09,531)
Solvency (x) FCF 50,992 1,21,109 98,001 1,41,981 1,73,972
Net debt-equity 0.0 (0.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Issue of share capital 9,657 1,43,206 0 0 0
Interest coverage ratio 59.0 84.9 284.0 351.3 832.4 Increase/(decrease) in debt 8,352 (11,287) (24) (104) 1,404
Net debt/EBITDA 0.1 (0.3) (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) Dividend paid (1,866) (1,932) (664) (622) (299)
Per share (Rs) Interest paid (27,189) (39,300) (40,872) (48,732) (51,876)
Adjusted EPS 266.5 431.1 472.9 547.1 630.5 Others 0 0 0 0 0
BVPS 1,999.4 2,740.7 3,080.2 3,468.2 3,929.4 Net cash from financing (11,046) 90,687 (41,561) (49,458) (50,772)
CEPS 360.0 529.7 600.9 703.3 806.3 Net change in Cash (29,985) 4,223 (19,621) 14,474 (11,331)
DPS 90.0 128.3 133.4 159.0 169.3 Source: Company, Centrum Broking
Dividend payout (%) 33.8 29.8 28.2 29.1 26.9
Valuation (x)
P/E 41.5 25.6 23.4 20.2 17.5
P/BV 5.5 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.8
EV/EBITDA 30.4 20.1 17.5 15.1 13.3
Dividend yield (%) 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 4

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 01 December, 2024

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Centrum Institutional Research 5

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 01 December, 2024

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accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co-managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months. Centrum and affiliates
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service in respect of public offerings, corporate finance, debt restructuring, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger/acquisition or some
other sort of specific transaction.
As per the declarations given by him, Mr. Shirish Pardeshi & Mr. Amit Dhameja, research analyst and and/or any of their family members do not serve as an
officer, director or any way connected to the company/companies mentioned in this report. Further, as declared by them, they are not received any
compensation from the above companies in the preceding twelve months. They do not hold any shares by them or through their relatives or in case if holds
the shares then will not to do any transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report. Our entire research professionals are our
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Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable
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Ratings definitions
Our ratings denote the following 12-month forecast returns:
Buy – The stock is expected to return above 15%.
Add – The stock is expected to return 5-15%.
Reduce – The stock is expected to deliver -5-+5% returns.
Sell – The stock is expected to deliver <-5% returns.
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd

Source: Bloomberg

Centrum Institutional Research 6

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 01 December, 2024

Disclosure of Interest Statement

1 Business activities of Centrum Broking Centrum Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “CBL”) is a registered member of NSE (Cash, F&O and Currency Derivatives
Limited (CBL) Segments), MCX-SX (Currency Derivatives Segment) and BSE (Cash segment), Depository Participant of CDSL and a SEBI registered
Portfolio Manager.
2 Details of Disciplinary History of CBL CBL has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority from accessing /dealing in securities market.

3 Registration status of CBL: CBL is registered with SEBI as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001469)

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd

4 Whether Research analyst’s or relatives’ have any financial interest in the subject company and nature of such financial interest No

5 Whether Research analyst or relatives have actual / beneficial ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company at the end of the month
No
immediately preceding the date of publication of the document.
6 Whether the research analyst or his relatives has any other material conflict of interest No

7 Whether research analyst has received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months and nature of products / services for which
No
such compensation is received
8 Whether the Research Analyst has received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the
No
research report
9 Whether Research Analysts has served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company No

10 Whether the Research Analyst has been engaged in market making activity of the subject company. No

11 Whether it or its associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months; No

Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company
12 No
in the past twelve months;
Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage
13 No
services from the subject company in the past twelve months;

Member (NSE and BSE). Member MSEI (Inactive)

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CDSL DP ID: 120 – 12200
Single SEBI Regn. No.: IN-DP-537-2020

PORTFOLIO MANAGER

SEBI REGN NO.: INP000004383

Research Analyst
SEBI Registration No. INH000001469

Mutual Fund Distributor

AMFI REGN No. ARN- 147569

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Centrum Institutional Research 7