Stat Unit 1 Notes
Stat Unit 1 Notes
Lt-|
Dafnihon:
e: Tossing coin
coin is a tial, and getirg head
Qn eent
Composie ernt.
Cards :52.
Tndeperdant Events :
Severol events an said to be induperdart i
bhe hoppening non
happening te event is
not aleutd by t suppleentay kroulolge
Concerhig the occurene the
any no
Aemaining
eveysto
(i) T tosing unbiasd coin
ans:
Prob 2:
Tuo nbaised ois cne tossed what is Hhe
pobabi lity 4 obtaining
a) Both heads
b
) Bot tuy
d) Atlt Atuast head.
as :
PA)
P(aT)
S:H, T
p(Athast
Prob 3:
wember point
A die is tossed and the
fo
is obsed.
oppearing en the upperost
een nmber
a)
b) an
odd mmber
c) a umber es than 3
d) a
aws:
they
{!, 2, 3, 4, S, b
nz b .
P Ceven mmheY)
P(odd nes)
2
PCws than 3)
p Ca sin)
Prob 4:
huo nbain ed coins a tosked whot
the probabi lity .obtaining
a) 3 head
Cns:
when Coins ae
bossed h oe foour
poss1ble ccons; H1P.
,THT, HTT ,TT
u n 4.
P C3 ado)
simulta nsouly
while tth vouoi ng bo dia
possibls utcoms
p Cpdi ) = (2x b)
(3x4)
(yx3)
bx)
M
36
Prob 1:
Akag cCortains 6 colte and o blacde bed one ball
s drawJn.wht is the probbi ity that it is ca wuta
ball.
Cs:
Put sevicl
P(wball) =
Prob -8:
Prob :
Cards draon from a ful pact S2
Cavds, ud tthe pyobablitiy thate
) Both a ud cards
diamond.
aus
dYawn
way
5AXSI 326 ways
) Pl2d carda)
Geting 2 ud cards in ways.
ol, ways
325 ways
FPCnethvng IH 1D)
J326
Pob lo:
tie perbons A, B,CD and E Ocpy gat
Ln at random. what is the probability
that A and B Sit hetto
= l20 ways. Ar
PCA+ B)
themselues
Consid1ring A+B together they can anang thensc
in 4 fatri
49 wuys
PCA+ Btogethr
t2-o
Pob u:
stiheu lt o s
=
3
re non-dtech ) |20
(r)
P(A0B) the Compound e d AB, tiis is
also calld coupound pyoabili
PA/B) dento probahiliky OCUran
A
asune that B hos actualy Ocurred
P(AIB) is calud
conditi onal pobability.
THeOReMS OF PROBABILITY
Addiiu theorm probability eents A and
wutually erciue tun
P (A+s) PA)+ PB)
L.Booles inequaty
P(A+8) PA) t P(B)
The
Sigu o equalitby lholds ohen Aand Bau wutucdley
enuiu.
1- Mulkpliaien theoen
thu prolability dor any 2
euent A and B.
P(AB) z PA). P(B/A)
: P(B). P(PlB).
he
euents At B anee independert thn,
P(AB) = Pa). p(B)
’4 this conditien s satuied A.B ae
independnt.
q- or cmy 3 euents AB,c
AB.
12
(3) P(AB)
PCB)
I-P(Ate)
12 12
3
12
) y ae ot
equly ihly ) sinu PGA) RB).
as
pa is au Ace.
the card rom
B = t e ent tat
pack bwo u au Ace .
Au pak o! So card
PA) =
13
PB) =
13
1- 00
Le be not deçee ve .
eRete
Prsbably
dereive
PLA). PlB)
p(aa)
ISume GVent
ile pene n
(S) Asalesman bas Soychanu eg wmakiug a sale
to behavior
eala custour. Te successie
Cstoer is arsumud to be indepencdent . ho
Custours X andy entar the shop
tue probbi ty that tue salAman aud wuake a sal?
Let Sale
KatomeY
e
Le enote the event Sal
ustmer
pobohility
Sale made es one
and
p(+)
Without Raplaument
Drawingy
A bon contains A wite andB black balls.
AtBtc
Cartc blace
)A bog, coutais
ohat the probabiity
ane drauou at raudou,
that 3 swite aud black.
Platb) ACa
b-B
g42
bxs
1X2
bo
Aue men coupay Ro au grddteotu .
J3me ee piceed auct tu alo at rand ou
what is He probabili ty thot tuy ae l gracuaby
what is the polbabiliby a ateant ee graduata?
no.
egra duae in th compay
3: no. non - dutu - 1s
gradus iu the sampe -3
ACa c
1X2 x3
JoxI
9radust.
A-s ISx jyxI3
b=3
223
286
Sn :
gues 3wita
let Adenot th ennt 1c draiog
balls
oleote t e event and druing gie 3
B
ed bols.
he po PA8)
we hewe toind
P(AB) = PA). P
PA) = 8
13X12)I
1X2x3
to find the conditiona prob PB)
nen A hos actually happenad (iey
Soiite bals So th ot
en bean takau out
naai ng 7 d and2 wite balls in Hha
dra
So. th prob a
120
1X2x3
IX2-X 3
1
IG3
429
p
whe P
probabilihy occrane f au eent
Suss
4 on - OCLUr an ce
(-p),(PH9) 1> faldse.
Thus te pobability eyr' sueses u' indpandd
in
ials s
prob
ot tectd biy
the yut tossig
(e) )
PeH) = Wio (
joxf**MSASAYxe
X
(Ve)
o.
12
(0)PCnous is a bradut )
(0) (o.4)
Gradust)
Se(o.y)' (o.6)*
P (Atleast ne Gmeduat)
hone w a Graduet
3) A wadine pyduus n
4 artilo ane hosen Aandsnly, find tu probability h
thu ane otlast e olgectiues arfiles .
Penoting te renta
Ocaurene a adjechue artides as
we ud that
Þprob defect ati de e
Thoem .
Bayud
apondant
Au event A Ca Me
buppose the
the unondi tional
pobaility
P(e,), P(B>), P (Bn ).
andl te Condlitianal probubi liby,
P(Bi).
P(Bi)
Bers thuonm.
Proa:
The enent A can happen in n nutually enelesiu
ways.
B, A, By A, .... BoA, either whn B, has o e or
B. by the theonm y total probabi lity
PA) = P(B, A+ B A+ -.. Bo 4)
P(an) .)
sing mlipliati en tthconm 0
i-)
Agcin P(Ai) = PIA)
P(3iA) = P( PA
Since tue events AB: Qnd BiA ane equivlant, theiy
Probabilis ne egual. Hena,
PA). P(B P(Bi)
P(A).
q): P(Bi). PA)
1) P(B;).P )
PA)
Subsiteing for PlA) frou about,
P(B) : PBi).
PB1). P)
-
P(Bi). P)
Hence te theor is prowd.
Ths is knoon as Bayert Theotm formua for
probabilities a hypothesis, because B.B2, . Bn may
be consiceed as dypothusis which aLcount for the
Ocurene oy A.Thuse ane Calld (P(Bi), P(B). PBn
piox probabi lihes a hypothesid (ie) (prolbabi litins pior
to
any knolclg as to the
a pos tuyio
Probabilities tu Same hypothass () prob
oftr t Ournu a Ais dufinitly kuoon
)Two bons cotcn Aespechvey wite and"&blaeh, a
Iwite and 3 black balls. One ball is tranfered trom
firat bon into seond and ten aua balb is drauon
fom te Latter. t turw out t Hha bae. ohad a the
prpbab lihy thct te transtered ball wcs o
Sln:
2 hypettuóe
3, = the tranfoxed ball
ball as ita
blak.
Wsiny BoysthoEmy
P(Bi). P
B
RANDDM VARIABLE
S be a
ample some gien random enpeinu
t has Been obsunud that the out
comes (( sowple e
poioi nt 4 S) ae wot asays enbers. weWe may amign
a eal umber to eaeh suple point acco rding to Aomt
di ie Aule. Such an asignmert giuen function
datined ample spae s". This is called a
YLndeu vanable (os stochastic vaniab)
Randoua vanable x way be dyined a funkon
oich asigs al unber ce) to eccth suple
a qien saupu spau S.
Tlustrahon 1:
In the randon enpeitt tosSi Roins, let flu
roundoua vaiaba denotiny The wwnoer huads ,they
we haue asied a wember to eceh
sople point
as dollows.
x(HH) =2 ,x (HT) |
îUustteten 2:
2)(2-3) =I
2
Y3) =(3 -3) =o
These a shoon in the tabla balowi
auple point
Radom Vaicde y
on =2 Ci= 1, 2 -.)
(othar wise)
) hd the probability disibuton the rande
Vaaicbls n isthciens tand 2.
Soutin:
ci) Asuwing +hat te cois s wnbsed,the
swmple spae is iit ound
P (u*= o)
P ( =2)
the pobabiliy distibutio xX uu
2 Totol
4)
'
Again
P
PYeo)
=
P(Y4)
P(Y-q) = P (Ee}) =e
The probability distibuton y is hneafor
To tl
fey
2 3
Tota)
fca) Va ( ()
Coninuous Pobability Distibuhon:
a contnuous Tand VQvcble tue
no possibe varicloles it can a s e ununtady
jintjiite hune te pokabiity for can no be
and
elsewhna
(9) 14 the ronde vcviable X has the probobi lity
dunity funchon
- 2 2n2 2
hene nd condiio
conoition is hol atii
not ea P.o t
4() d f o oBor
P,
P,+P2 +Ps
=F(a) - F s .
Drob dist o with Pd
tor the coinuous
Cotb),t e C- dt'a
4(n) in the ivterval
Fa)=f2) dn
D+ is also
known as tthe
the Ber houlli olistibubon n
honour a! tte swis mothe uchiçia
also derined it. Jaob Bernouli Ci6sy- h
oa
disnete_prob distibubion that iu fuquany
Coentd. Considler indaperdort
n
trials of a random enpevin
hauing only a out cOes ces t faile et He prob
sucwss n auy trial be p aud prob
Csuch tials e caulled failun beqP
YANdom varicble dandeno Benoulli trioala). Lat
the no.
X
Bucexs
Can be obtaind
Cnd Bo
te prob geting oaoty
P (M= 2 ) =
m= O, I, 2
tu Paraetus iuomial
dit ad wne X B, n, P) to olnote that X fel
binoial dit ith Paramies los
(u) Vaiante
Probi:
3 suLLess Cn
t un he chanu qettiny a sues in rial /3.
Kln:
PCx=)
=D. 33 appo.
Su:
Hean
() np = b
ne
x3
P (X: ) =
P (K= o)
( (Ys)
PCX=1)
Su:
= bx ('3)
)eueu oiw
biuowi
doibahou hiud sut te pabiiby olotasui ng attaost
s head
Þ= 0.s
5
P(x2s) =
s(o-t
0.O369 + O.oO4)
+ P(x6)+ P(* -1)
O. lb + o.0SU + 0. OO18.
produced by a walie
olehu oleerwiu tt eobahi ity that out cy 4
- 0 . 226b bolts cluoseu at roude.
=0.1121
n= S
o.4128. p 18
28
Y: 1.
D.31t O 4t0.j0
=0.101
2) Peiseu distibuion:
air pot
dunvg a pariulav Hue
intrval Roe euents can be well deseritd u
Poison distibhon . The
Tu o.
larae emers in a pag a ok
(The poisn dist be considu qood
to be a
apprmi waion the biuowial distriaton oln tthu
o" trias ) is large and the
P= o]
praticol prposes
The poison disibuhisn is sien by fnhon
e
and wnt
Xu P(: A)
and ananu f the Poiun distibuion e
Te
both e ual t thu pa vG ute A.
)tind tthe po tuat atmost
Boundd iu a bon a 20o fuss. 4 euperiene shows
ct a?) an datetie:
let be the o.
= l00XO.02
(a 4) -
P(xs)
e - ,2 -H,3
3)
2)
=0.01832 (2e
=0.1851 Co.7693
prob 4 diallin
prob
Hhe pob dialli g eactly
-S_3
:0. 00b7Y
IX2-X3
=0. lyO.
3)) A A
maulactu cotty piws
piws knows that S7. hu
produt ia dalekue
ud
norautos that ot moe than lo pins will
dletu, ohat te app voniwat prob tht He
be
will Jail to meet Guaanted qual
Sh:
P=5
loo
at X be e no.
pis.
dafectie piu in a bon
=|00 Xo. Ds
= 1- jo.98b3 )
NogMAL DISTRIBUTION
Noral ds ibution Y huasiun
iost
oisti btiou is te
widey sd continwous
Yaudom variable x is said o diotibuhen. A contiwous
distibutian 4 ita -follow tte horwal
pob cansihy fnckhon i gin by »
P(Z2)=o.s - 0.y12'
P 2o)
L 20 -u
)
P 2)
O-12
P 3240)
ginen;
o'- S .
40 -
.. Te pob
3) Asue that
with a Vari Io9 iches. How mauy odieYs in
a giwent lo00 wold epet o be OueY b eet
tal.
1ainhs: let
V)o.
o3.Q6
P (X>12
1@- b6.22
= 7& :
3.294
Pe12= P(a >:15)
oodiers erupectd to be
tal is
slu:
bo
P721 SO ) o. b 33,
is hys 2lbo than ns but 1qDo than woe
orburn to
likely bsbul no. bulbs, 2oo0 4 Ot
(-222L2) (19203xL2ibo)
P= P
s So then
9
433,) =05-0.
L-l) P410)
P
bo
lura 2ISo then mon jor burn to
lilely bulbs, No-4
3) Unitorw dishibuion:
A conti nuDs
udo wa xdfind in
in terval (ab) in said to follouw nitos wm distibubhi on
4 ito prob abiliy, duntity is giuen by
dor
b-a
oturwùR
Mecw a+b
Variae =.(b-a) =
t b
bolwing a+b = 2 aud we get az-l,b
is c,3 )
ese chue
-)
3
P(x o) -
-2
2b : 6
3-2-)
a-l