Climate Change

Part 2
Case Study: Melting Snow and Ice
Climate models predict that atmospheric warming
will be the most severe in the world’s polar regions.
▪ Light-coloured ice and snow in these regions help
to cool the earth by reflecting incoming solar
energy. The melting of such ice and snow exposes
much darker land and sea areas, which absorb
more solar energy.
▪ This causes polar regions to warm faster than
lower latitudes, and it accelerates atmospheric
warming because less solar energy is reflected
away from the earth’s surface. This melts more
snow and ice and causes further warming in an
escalating spiral of change.
Melting Snow and Ice (cont.)
▪ Loss of Arctic Sea ice affects global air and water
circulation patterns. Thus it could reduce long
term average rainfall and snowfall in the already
dry American West and affect food production in
several areas by reducing the availability of
irrigation water.
▪ It could also lead to increased precipitation and
flooding in Western and Southern Europe.
Melting Snow and Ice (cont.)
▪ Mountain glaciers play a vital role by storing
water as ice during cold wet seasons and
releasing it slowly to streams during warmer dry
seasons. Such glaciers are a major source of
water for large rivers. During the past 25 years,
many of the world’s mountain glaciers have
been melting and shrinking at accelerating rates.
99% of Alaska’s glaciers are shrinking.

Melting of Alaska’s Muir

Glacier in the popular
Glacier Bay National Park
and Preserve between 1948
and 2004.
Melting Snow and Ice (cont.)
▪ In 2007, scientists estimated that 80% of the
mountain glaciers in South America will be gone
by 2025. As this occurs, millions of people in
countries such as Bolivia, Peru, and Ecuador
who rely on meltwater from the glaciers for
irrigation and hydropower could face severe
water, power, and food shortages.
▪ Similar shortages could threaten billions of
people in Asia if mountain glaciers in the
Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau melt.
Melting Snow and Ice (cont.)
▪ Alaska’s permafrost (permanently frozen
subsoil) is also beginning to melt. This is
resulting in sagging roads and sinking pipelines.
Some trees are showing their roots as the
permafrost melts.
▪ The amount of carbon stored as methane (CH4)
and CO2 in permafrost is very high. Some
scientists are concerned about a layer of
permafrost on the Arctic Sea floor, “methane time
bombs.” They could eventually release amounts of
methane and CO2 that would be many times the
current levels in the atmosphere, resulting in
rapid and catastrophic climate change.
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxixy1u8GjY
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxixy1u8GjY
Melting Snow and Ice (cont.)
Throughout the winter, the bears hunt seals on
floating sea ice that expands each winter and
contracts as the temperature rises each summer.
Normally the bears swim from one patch of sea ice
to another to hunt and eat seals during winter as
their body fat accumulates.
In the summer and fall, the animals fast and live off
their body fat for several months until hunting
resumes when the ice expands again each winter.
Melting Snow and Ice (cont.)
▪ Evidence shows that the Arctic is warming twice
as fast as the rest of the world is. As a result, the
average annual area of floating sea ice in the
Arctic is declining. And the winter ice is
breaking-up earlier each year, shortening the
bears’ hunting season.
▪ The shrinkage of sea ice means that polar bears
have less time to feed and store the fat they need
to survive their summer and fall months of
fasting.
As a result, they must fast longer, which weakens
them.
Melting Snow and Ice (cont.)
▪ As females become weaker, their ability to
reproduce and keep their young cubs alive
declines.

▪ As bears grow hungrier, they are more likely to

go to human settlements looking for food. The
resulting increase in bear sightings has given
people the false impression that their
populations are growing.
Melting Snow and Ice (cont.)
▪ Ice shrinkage has forced polar bears to swim
longer distances to find food and stable sea ice,
which is proving deadly for many of their cubs.

▪ Loss of sea ice also threaten

the bear’s main prey, sea
seals, which need ice to raise
their young.
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAN4RCOaqeE
Case Study: Rising in Sea Levels
Globally, sea levels rose 10 to 20 cm in the twentieth
century. This rise is due to expansion of seawater as
it warms, and to the melting of land-based ice,
especially mountaintop glaciers.
▪ Such a rise in sea level would be more dramatic if
land-based glaciers in Greenland and Western
Antarctica continue melting at their current or
higher rates as the atmosphere warms.
Rising in Sea Levels (cont.)
▪ A study estimated that a loss of just 15% of
Greenland’s ice sheet would cause a devastating
1-meter rise in sea level that would threaten
millions of people and cause trillions of dollars of
damage to many of the world’s major coastal
cities.
▪ Severe reductions in greenhouse gas emissions
might prevent such a catastrophic rise in sea
level, but even then, most scientists are projecting
a minimum rise of 1 meter by 2100. This change
could threaten at least one-third of the world’s
coastal estuaries, wetlands, and coral reefs.
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xutf2eRDcgI
Rising in Sea Levels (cont.)
▪ This would also contaminate freshwater coastal
aquifers with saltwater, disrupt many of the
world’s coastal fisheries, flood low-lying barrier
islands, and cause gently sloping coastlines to
erode.
▪ Projected sea level rises would also submerge
low-lying islands around the world. Flooding in
some of the world’s largest cities located on
coasts would displace at least 150 million people.
▪ It would also threaten trillions of dollars worth of
buildings, roads, and other forms of
infrastructure.
Rising in Sea Levels (cont.)
▪ People who are already poor and overcrowded,
may be forced from homes in low-lying countries
such as Bangladesh.
▪ A rising sea level can exert great damage even in
less critically affected regions, e.g., beaches,
beach-front property, and may increase storm
surges along coastlines.
▪ A higher sea level also means salty water can
infiltrate fresh groundwater in coastal areas,
making it undrinkable.
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6eZO9RtEzU
Case Study: Threatening Biodiversity
As climate change alters temperature and weather
patterns, it will also impact plant and animal life.
Scientists expect that biodiversity will decline
greatly as temperatures continue to rise.
The loss of biodiversity could have many negative
impacts on the future of ecosystems and humanity
worldwide.
▪ Approximately 30% of the land-based plant and
animal species could disappear if the average
global temperature change exceeds 1.5–2.5 oC.
This percentage could grow to 70% if the
temperature change exceeds 3.5 oC.
Case Study: Threatening Biodiversity
▪ Rising temperatures already affect the world's
polar regions. Diminishing ice packs reduce the
habitats of polar bears, penguins, puffins, and
other Arctic creatures.
▪ Changes in temperatures will also cause shifts in
mating cycles, especially for migratory animals
that rely on changing seasons to indicate their
migration and reproductive timing.
▪ Some adaptive organisms—such as weeds, fire
ants, beetles that kill trees, and disease carrying
organisms—will likely threaten many other
species as they expand.
Threatening Biodiversity (cont.)
▪ Rising sea levels will also cause changes to ocean
temperatures and perhaps even currents. Such
changes would have a strong impact on
zooplankton, an essential part of the food chain
in the ocean.
▪ As biodiversity decreases, there will be far-
reaching effects. Disruptions in the food chain
may greatly affect not only ecosystems but also
humanity's ability to feed an ever-growing
population.
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yD6khRIL0tc
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cvMX82iwRM
Case Study: Increasing Severe Droughts
Severe and prolonged drought affects at least 30%
of the earth’s land. A study stated that by 2059, up
to 45% of the world’s land area could experience
extreme drought.
Long-term climate change can also contribute to
prolonged drought. During the past 15 years,
average rainfall in Australia and in the western
United States has been decreasing, with a warmer
atmosphere being responsible for 37% of the drop.
If the atmosphere continues to warm as projected its
influence on prolonged drought will increase.
Increasing Severe Droughts (cont.)
▪ As drought increases and spreads, the growth of
trees and other plants declines, which reduces
the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere.
▪ Forest and grassland fires increase, which adds
CO2 to the atmosphere.
▪ Moisture can also evaporate from dry soils,
depriving them of already limited moisture.
▪ Droughts have worsened the pollution in recent
years because the same amount of pollution
enters the rivers, but there is less water to dilute
it. Lakes and coastal areas are also badly
polluted.
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DK1uKpJ49Jo
Case Study: Threatening People’s Health
Doctors warned that climate change will be the
biggest threat to human health during the 21st
century.
▪ Frequent and prolonged heat waves in some areas
will increase deaths and illnesses, especially
among older people, those with poor health, and
the urban poor who cannot afford air conditioning.
▪ A warmer, CO2-rich world will be a great place for
rapidly multiplying insects, microbes, toxic molds,
and fungi that make us sick.
Threatening People’s Health (cont.)
▪ Microbes that cause tropical infectious diseases
such as dengue fever, yellow fever, and malaria
are likely to expand their ranges and numbers if
mosquitoes that carry them spread to warmer
and higher elevation areas, and thus diseases
currently restricted to existing hot regions may
move into the newly warming regions.

▪ Higher atmospheric temperatures will also

increase air pollution by increasing the rate of
chemical reactions that produce photochemical
smog.
Threatening People’s Health (cont.)
▪ A WHO study estimated that climate change
already affects more than 250 million people and
contributes to the premature deaths of more than
150,000 people a year—an average of 411 people
a day—and that this number could double by
2030.
Most of these deaths are caused by increases in
malaria, diarrhea, malnutrition, and flooding that
can be traced to climate change. By the end of this
century, the annual death toll from climate change
could be in the millions.
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JywsWktvODc
Case Study: Damaging Forests
▪ As conditions become warmer and drier, the
frequency of forest fires could increase in
some areas such as the South-Eastern and
Western United States.
▪ This would decrease forest biodiversity and
accelerate climate change by adding more CO2
to the atmosphere.
▪ A warmer climate would also greatly increase
populations of insects and fungi that damage
trees.
Damaging Forests (cont.)
▪ Rising temperatures and increased drought
from projected climate change will likely
make many forest areas more suitable for
insect pests, which would then multiply and
kill more trees.
▪ The resulting combination of drier forests and
more dead trees could increase the incidence
and intensity of forest fires. This would add
more of the greenhouse gas (CO2) to the
atmosphere, which would further increase
atmospheric temperatures and cause even
more forest fires in a spiralling cycle of
increasingly harmful changes.
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63hoK9Vd1dM
Case Study: Declining Food Production
Around 80% of the world’s crops are rain-fed.
Farmers depend on the regular seasonality of
harvests that for millennia has regulated crop
growth and given rhythm to countryside life.
However, climate change is altering rainfall
patterns around the world.

Scientists warn that by 2050, some 200–600 million

of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people
could face malnutrition and starvation due to the
effects of climate change on agricultural systems.
Case Study: Declining Food Production
▪ When temperatures rise, the warmer air holds
more moisture and can make precipitation more
intense. Extreme precipitation events, which are
becoming more common, can directly damage
crops, decreasing yields.

▪ Global warming enables weeds, pests, and fungi

to expand their range and numbers. In addition,
earlier springs and milder winters allow more of
these pests and weeds to survive for a longer
time. Plant diseases and pests that are new to an
area could destroy crops that haven’t had time
to evolve defences against them.
Case Study: Declining Food Production
▪ Hotter weather will lead to faster evaporation,
resulting in more droughts and water
shortages—so there will be less water for
irrigation just when it is needed most.

▪ The ultimate effect of rising heat depends on

each crop’s optimal range of temperatures for
growth and reproduction. If temperatures
exceed this range, yields will drop because heat
stress can disrupt a plant’s pollination,
flowering, root development, and growth
stages.
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0K9sD0vGus