MATHS PROJECT

TOPIC: PROBABILITY

NAME OF THE STUDENT: VARUNI KULKARNI

CLASS: 12 (AY2024-25)
NAME OF THE SCHOOL: VIBGYOR HIGH

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Name: Varuni Kulkarni

Class: 12

Board Roll No:

Subject Name: Maths

Subject Code: 041

Project Topic: Probability

Submitted To: Ms. Madhavi

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 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to express my sincere gratitude to all those who have

contributed to the completion of this project.

First and foremost, I would like to thank my Maths teacher, Ms.

Madhavi, for their invaluable guidance, continuous support, and

encouragement throughout the entire process. Their expertise and

insightful advice were instrumental in keeping me focused and

motivated.

I am also deeply grateful to our Principal, Ms. Saina Mary Antony,

for her constant support and for ensuring that all the necessary

resources and facilities were available when needed. Her unwavering

encouragement and assistance were vital to the success of this project.

I also extend my heartfelt thanks to my family/friends, for their

unwavering support, understanding, and patience during the course of

this project. Their encouragement helped me maintain balance and

stay on track.

Varuni Kulkarni

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 CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that VARUNI KULKARNI a student of Class XII,

VIBGYOR High Electronic City, has completed the Math’s project
for the academic year 2024 – 2025 under my guidance. He has taken
care and shown utmost sincerity in completing the project.

I certify that this project is up to my expectations and as per the

guidelines issued by CBSE.

Internal Examiner Coordinator Principal

Ms Madhavi Ms Susan Mathew Ms Saina Mary Antony

External Examiner School Seal

Date:

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 INDEX

S.no. Topic Page no.

1. Introduction 6

2. Important Terms and Concepts 7

3. Conditional Probability 8

4. Independent Event 9

5. The Law of Total Probability 10

6. Baye’s Theorem 11

7. Question 12

8. Bernoulli trials 14

Application Probability 15

9. Conclusion 18

10. Bibliography 19

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INTRODUCTION

What is probability?
Probability means possibility. It is a branch of mathematics that deals with the occurrence of
a random event. The value is expressed from zero to one. The probability of all the events in
a sample space adds up to 1. It has been introduced to predict how likely events are to
happen.

For example, when we toss a coin, either we get Head or Tail, only two possible outcomes
are possible (H, T). But if we toss two coins in the air, there could be three possibilities of
events to occur, such as both the coins show heads or both shows tails or one shows heads
and one tail, i.e. (H, H), (H, T), (T, T).
Probability theory is widely used in the area of studies such as statistics, finance, gambling
artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer science, game theory, and philosophy.

PROBABILITY OF A EVENT
If there are n elementary events associated with a random experiment and m of them are
favourable to an event A, then the probability of happening or occurrence of A is denoted by
P(A) and is defined in the ratio m/n.
Thus, P(A)= m/n
If P(A)= 1, then A is called the certain event and A is called an impossible event if P(A)= 0.
The probability that the event will not occur is expressed as:
P(A’) = (n-m)/n = 1-(m/n)
Also, P(A) + P(A’)= 1
This means that the total of all the probabilities in any random test or experiment is equal to
1.

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IMPORTANT TERMS AND CONCEPTS
1) Random experiment: If an experiment, when repeated under indentical conditions, do
notproduce the same outcome every time but the outcome in a trial is one of the
several possible outcomes, then such an experiment is called a random experiment or
a probabilistic experiment.
2) Elementary event: If a random experiment is performed, then each of its outcomes is
known as an elementary event.
3) Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment called the
sample space associated with it.
4) Event: A subset of the sample space associated with a random experiment is called an
event.
5) Occurrence of an event: An event associated to a random experiment is said to occur
if any one of the elementary events belonging to it is an outcome.
6) Certain( or sure) event: An event associated with a random experiment is called a
certain event if it always occurs when the experiment is performed.
7) Impossible event: An event associated with a random experiment is called an
impossible event if it never occurs whenever the experiment is performed.
8) Compund event: An event associated with a random experiment is a compound event,
if it is the disjoint of union of two or more elementary events.
9) Mutually exclusive events: Two or more events associated with a random experiment
are said to be mutually exclusive or impossible events if the occurrence of any one of
them prevents the occurrence of all others.
10) Exhaustive events: Two or more events associated with a random experiment are
exhaustive if their union is the sample space.

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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Let A and B be two events associated with a random experiment. Then, the
probability of occurrence of event A under the condition that B has already occurred
and P(B) ≠ 0, is called the conditional probability and it is denoted by P(A/B).
Thus,
P(A/B) = Probability of occurrence of A is given that B has already occurred
Similarly, P(B/A) when P(A) ≠ 0 is defined as the probability of occurrence of event
B when A has already occurred.

P(A/B) = Probability of occurrence of A when B occurs

OR
Probability of occurrence of A when B is taken as the sample space
OR
Probability of occurrence of A with respect to B
And,
P(B/A) = Probability of occurrence of B when A occurs
OR
Probability of occurrence of B when A is taken as the sample space
OR
Probability of occurrence of B with respect to A

P(A|B) = P(A∩B)
P(B)

P(B|A) = P(A∩B)
P(A)

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INDEPENDENT EVENT

Events are said to be independent, if the occurrence or non-occurrence of one does not
affect the probability of the occurrence or non-occurrence of the other.
Suppose a bag contains 6 white and 3 red balls. Two balls are drawn from the bad one
after the other.
Consider the events,
A= Drawing a white ball in first draw
B= Drawing a red ball in second draw

If the ball drawn in the first draw is not replaced back in the bag, then events A and B
are dependent events because P(B) is increased or decreased according as the first
draw results as a white or a red ball. If the ball drawn in first draw is replaced back in
the bag, then A and B are independent events because P(B) remains same whether we
get a white ball or a red ball in first draw i.e. P(B)= P(B/A) and P(B)= P(B/A’)

If A and B are two independent events associated with a random experiment, then
P(A/B) = P(A) and P(B/A) = P(B)

THEOREM 1
If A and B are independent events associated with a random experiment, then
P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B)
i.e., the probability of simultaneous occurrence of two independent events is equal to
the product of their probabilities

THEOREM 2
If A₁, A₂, A₃,….Aₙ are independent events associated with a random experiment,
then
P(A₁ ∩ A₂ ∩ A₃…∩ Aₙ)= P(A₁) P(A₂)….P(Aₙ)

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THE LAW OF TOTAL PROBABILITY

Let S be the sample space and let E₁, E₂,…Eₙ be n mutually exclusive and exhaustive
events associated with a random experiment. If A is any event which occurs with E₁
or E₂ or … or Eₙ, then

P(A)= P(E₁) P(A/ E₁) + P(E₂) P(A/ E₂) + … +P(Eₙ) P(A/ Eₙ)

The law of total probability as stated and proved above says that if an event A can
occur in n mutually exclusive ways, then the probability of occurrence of A is the sum
of the probabilities of all mutually exclusive ways.

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BAYE’S THEOREM

Statement:

Let E1, E2,…,En be a set of events associated with a sample space S, where all the
events E1, E2,…, En have non-zero probability of occurrence and they form a
partition of S.
Let A be any event associated with S, then according to Bayes theorem,
P(Ei│A) = P(Ei)P(A│Ei)
ⁿΣ P(Ei)P(A│Ei)
i=1
for any i = 1, 2, 3, …., n

Proof:

P(Ei│A) = P(Ei∩A)P(A) ⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯(1)

According to the conditional probability formula,

Using the multiplication rule of probability,

P(Ei∩A) = P(Ei)P(A│Ei)⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯(2)

Using total probability theorem,

P(A) = nΣk=1P(Ei)P(A|Ei)⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯(3)

Putting the values from equations (2) and (3) in equation 1, we get

P(Ei│A) = P(Ei)P(A│Ei)
ⁿΣ P(Ei)P(A│Ei)
i=1

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QUESTION

In a bolt factory, machines A, B and C manufacture respectively 25%, 35%, and 40%
of the total bolts. Of their output 5, 4 and 2 percent are respectively defective bolts. A
bolt is drawn at random from the product. If the bolt drawn is found to be defective,
what is the probability that it is manufactured by the machine B?

SOLUTION
Let E₁, E₂, E₃ and A be the events defined as follows:
E₁= Bolt is manufactured by machine A
E₂= Bolt is manufactured by machine B
E₃= Bolt is manufactured by machine C
A= Bolt is defective
Then,
P(E₁) = (Probability that the bolt drawn is manufactured by machine A) = 25/100
P(E₂) = (Probability that the bolt drawn is manufactured by machine B) = 35/100
P(E₃) = (Probability that the bolt drawn is manufactured by machine C) = 40/100

P(A/ E₁) = Probability that the bolt drawn is defective given that it is
manufactured by machine A
= 5/100
P(A/ E₂) = Probability that the bolt drawn is defective given that it is
manufactured by machine B
= 4/100
P(A/ E₃) = Probability that the bolt drawn is defective given that it is
manufactured by machine C
= 2/100

Required Probability = Probability that the bolt is manufactured by machine B

given that the bolt drawn is defective

= P(E₂/A)

= P(E₂) P(A/ E₂)

P(E₁) P(A/ E₁) + P(E₂) P(A/ E₂) + P(E₃) P(A/ E₃)

35 x 4
= 100

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 25x5 + 35x4 + 40x2
100 100 1001

= 140
125+ 140+80

= 140
345

= 28
69

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BERNOULLI TRIALS

A random experiment whose outcomes are only of two types, say success S and
failure F, is a Bernoulli trial.
The probability of success is taken as p while that of failure is q= 1− p.
A random variable X will have Bernoulli distribution with probability p if its
probability distribution is
P(X = x) = px (1 – p)1−x, for x = 0, 1
and P(X = x) = 0 for other values of x.

Here, 0 is failure and 1 is the success.

Conditions for Bernoulli Trials:

1. A finite number of trials.
2. Each trial should have exactly two outcomes: success or failure.
3. Trials should be independent.
4. The probability of success or failure should be the same in each trial.

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APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY

Some of the applications of probability are predicting the outcome when you:
• Flipping a coin.
• Choosing a card from the deck.
• Throwing a dice.
• Pulling a green candy from a bag of red candies.
• Winning a lottery 1 in many millions

Examples of Real-Life probability

1) Weather planning:

A probability forecast is an assessment of how likely an event can occur in terms

of percentage and record the risks associated with weather. Meteorologists around
the world use different instruments and tools to predict weather changes. They
collect the weather forecast database from around the world to estimate the
temperature changes and probable weather conditions for a particular hour, day,
week, and month.
Example: If there are 40 % chances of raining then the weather condition is such
that 40 out of 100 days it has rained.

2) Sports strategies:

In sports, analyses are conducted with the help of probability to understand the
strengths and weaknesses of a particular team or player. Analysts use probability

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 and odds to foretell outcomes regarding the team’s performance and members in
the sport.
Coaches use probability as a tool to determine in what areas their team is strong
enough and in which all areas they have to work to attain victory. Trainers even
use probability to gauge the capacity of a particular player in his team and when to
allow him to play and against whom.
Example: A cricket coach evaluates a player's batting and bowling capability by
taking his average performances in previous matches before placing him in the
line-up.

3) Insurance:

Insurance companies use the theory of probability or theoretical probability for

framing a policy or completing at a premium rate. The theory of probability is a
statistical method used to predict the possibility of future outcomes.
Example: Issuing health insurance for an alcoholic person is likely to be more
expensive compared to the one issued to a healthy person. Statistical analysis
shows high health risks for a regular alcoholic person, ensuring them is a great
financial risk given a higher probability of serious illness and hence filing a claim
of premium money.

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4) In games:

Blackjack, poker, gambling, all sports, board games, video games use probability
to know how likely a team or person has chances to win.
Example: When two dices are rolled simultaneously, the outcomes will be as
given below

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CONCLUSION

In short, probability is the study of uncertainty. It can be defined as a branch of

mathematics dealing with randomness and uncertainty in concrete situations. There
are numerous applications of probability in practical life. It is generally used when
one wants to know “how likely” a particular event will occur.

For example, when a customer at a bookshop wants to buy a book, they may calculate
the likelihood of them buying that book or not based on their previous buying habits
and what have you suggested, and eventually decide if buying a specific book is
worth it.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY

 NCERT Grade 12 textbook

 RD Sharma Grade 12 textbook

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