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Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing 512

Natalya Shakhovska Editor

Advances in
Intelligent Systems
and Computing
Selected Papers from the International
Conference on Computer Science and
Information Technologies, CSIT 2016,
September 6–10 Lviv, Ukraine
Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing

Volume 512

Series editor
Janusz Kacprzyk, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
e-mail: [email protected]
About this Series
The series “Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing” contains publications on theory,
applications, and design methods of Intelligent Systems and Intelligent Computing. Virtually
all disciplines such as engineering, natural sciences, computer and information science, ICT,
economics, business, e-commerce, environment, healthcare, life science are covered. The list
of topics spans all the areas of modern intelligent systems and computing.
The publications within “Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing” are primarily
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An important characteristic feature of the series is the short publication time and world-wide
distribution. This permits a rapid and broad dissemination of research results.

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e-mail: [email protected]
Members
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e-mail: [email protected]
Emilio S. Corchado, University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain
e-mail: [email protected]
Hani Hagras, University of Essex, Colchester, UK
e-mail: [email protected]
László T. Kóczy, Széchenyi István University, Győr, Hungary
e-mail: [email protected]
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e-mail: [email protected]
Chin-Teng Lin, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan
e-mail: [email protected]
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e-mail: [email protected]
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e-mail: [email protected]
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e-mail: [email protected]
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e-mail: [email protected]
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e-mail: [email protected]

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11156

Natalya Shakhovska
Editor

Advances in Intelligent
Systems and Computing
Selected Papers from the International
Conference on Computer Science
and Information Technologies, CSIT 2016,
September 6–10 Lviv, Ukraine

123
Editor
Natalya Shakhovska
Lviv Polytechnic National University
Lviv
Ukraine

ISSN 2194-5357 ISSN 2194-5365 (electronic)

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing
ISBN 978-3-319-45990-5 ISBN 978-3-319-45991-2 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-45991-2
Library of Congress Control Number: 2016950408

© Springer International Publishing AG 2017

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Contents

An Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

with Repair Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Bożena Borowska
Fuzzy Evaluation Method for Project Profitability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Rekik Ali, Gabsi Mounir, Valentina Emilia Balas
and Masmoudi Nissen
New Approach for Saving Semistructured Medical Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Iryna Shvorob
Architecture and Conceptual Bases of Cloud IT Infrastructure
Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Sergii Telenyk, Eduard Zharikov and Oleksandr Rolik
Generation of the Association Rules Among Multidimensional
Data in DBMS Caché Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Mykola Fisun and Hlib Horban
Threat Assessment Method for Intelligent Disaster Decision Support
System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Maryna Zharikova and Volodymyr Sherstjuk
Mobile Activation Learning System Using Gamification Approach . . . . 101
V.F. Emets, Jan Rogowski and Jacek Krasiukianis
University’s Information Image as a Result of University Web
Communities’ Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
Roman Korzh, Andriy Peleshchyshyn, Yuriy Syerov
and Solomia Fedushko
Multi-modular Optimum Coding Systems Based on Remarkable
Geometric Properties of Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Volodymyr Riznyk

v
vi Contents

The Method of Statistical Analysis of the Scientific, Colloquial,

Belles-Lettres and Newspaper Styles on the Phonological
Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Iryna Khomytska and Vasyl Teslyuk
The Optimal Aggregation of Integrated Regional Systems
“Production, Waste Recycling” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
Taisa Borovska, Pavel Severilov, Irina Kolesnik and Victor Severilov
Intelligent Systems Design of Distance Learning Realization
for Modern Youth Promotion and Involvement in Independent
Scientific Researches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
Nataliya Shakhovska, Victoria Vysotska and Lyubomyr Chyrun
An Ontology-Based Approach for User Interface Adaptation . . . . . . . . . 199
Makram Soui, Soumaya Diab, Ali Ouni, Aroua Essayeh
and Mourad Abed
Algebraic Framework for Knowledge Processing in Systems
with Situational Awareness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
Khrystyna Mykich and Yevhen Burov
Classification Methods of Text Documents Using Ontology Based
Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
Vasyl Lytvyn, Victoria Vysotska, Oleh Veres, Ihor Rishnyak
and Halya Rishnyak
The Identification of the Operator’s Systems Images
Using the Method of the Phase Portrait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
Natalya Shakhovska, Lilia Nych and Roman Kaminskyj
Concept Implementation of Decision Support Software
for the Risk Management of Complex Technical System . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255
Victor Boyko, Nicolay Rudnichenko, Sergey Kramskoy,
Yevhen Hrechukha and Natalia Shibaeva
The Model of Data Analysis of the Psychophysiological
Survey Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271
Volodymyr Pasichnyk and Tetiana Shestakevych
Two Algorithms Median Filtering to Identify the Time
Series Trend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
Helen Dmitriv and Roman Kaminsky
Use Electric and Acoustic Technologies for Automated Control
of Water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293
Maryna Mikhalieva, Nataliya Hots, Mykola Mykyychuk
and Yuliia Dzikovska
Contents vii

Analysis of Clustering Algorithms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305

Iryna Zheliznyak, Zoriana Rybchak and Iryna Zavuschak
Semantic Search Personalized Data as Special Method
of Processing Medical Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
Natalia Melnykova
An Improved Particle Swarm
Optimization Algorithm with Repair
Procedure

Bożena Borowska

Abstract In this paper a new particle swarm optimization algorithm called RPSO
for solving high dimensional optimization problems is proposed and analyzed both
in terms of their efficiency, the ability to avoid local optima and resistance to the
problem of premature convergence. In RPSO, a repair procedure was introduced the
aim of which was to determine new, better velocities for some particles, when their
current velocities are inefficient. New velocities are the functions of previous and
current velocities. The new algorithm was tested with a set of benchmark functions
and the results were compared with those obtained through the standard PSO
(SPSO) and IPSO. Simulation results show that new RPSO is faster and more
effective than the standard PSO and IPSO.

Keywords Optimization Particle swarm optimization
Swarm intelligence

Improved particle swarm optimization

1 Introduction

Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is a stochastic, based on the swarm intelligence,

optimization method, introduced by Kennedy and Eberhart [1, 2]. Because of its
simplicity, a relatively low computational cost and easy implementation, it has been
applied to solve many different optimization and engineering problems [3–8].
However, in case complex, multidimensional surface with many local optima,
standard particle swarm optimization (SPSO) can encounter some problems in
finding an optimal solution. Moving towards an optimum, the algorithm tends to

B. Borowska (&)
Institute of Information Technology, Lodz University of Technology,
Wólczańska 215, 90-924 Lodz, Poland
e-mail: [email protected]

© Springer International Publishing AG 2017 1

N. Shakhovska (ed.), Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing,
Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing 512,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-45991-2_1
2 B. Borowska

premature converge to one of the points of the search space, can be very slow and
requires thousands of iterations. Moreover, the SPSO algorithm can stop optimizing
when reaching a near optimal solution or trap into local optima and never escapes.
A lot of various attempts have been made to overcome these problems and improve
the performance of SPSO. They include:
• adjustment of basic control parameters (such as inertia weight, acceleration
coefficients) [9–12],
• modification of the velocity updating equation [12–15],
• division of a population into sub-swarms [16],
• hybrid algorithms, which combine PSO with other methods like GA [17–19] or
SA [20, 21],
• application of a fuzzy system [22–26].
This paper presents a novel particle swarm optimization called RPSO for solving
high dimensional optimization problems. In RPSO, a repair procedure was intro-
duced, which relies on determination of new, better velocities for some particles
when their current velocities are inefficient. The new velocity is a function of
previous and present velocities. The new algorithm was tested with a set of
benchmark functions [27, 28] and the results were compared with those obtained
through the standard PSO and its improved variant IPSO1 [16] with a population
partitioned into sub-swarms that are shuffled at periodic stages in the evolution.

2 The Standard PSO

The standard PSO algorithm is an optimization method based on the behavior of the
swarm and its intelligence. It starts with a population of particles, each of which is
initialized with a random generated position vector Xi = (xi1,xi2,…, xiD) and a
velocity vector Vi = (vi1,vi2,…, viD). In each iteration, particles move within the
search space to find the best solution. The quality (fitness) of each particle is
evaluated according to the objective function of the optimization problem. The best
previously found position of the particle i is remembered in its memory as its
personal best position pbesti = (pbesti1, pbesti2,…, pbestiD). The best position of the
whole swarm is remembered in memory of the swarm as the global best position
gbest = (gbest1, gbest2,…, gbestD). New positions and velocities of the particles are
updated according to the following equations:

Vi ðt þ 1Þ ¼ wVi ðtÞ þ c1 r1 ðpbesti  Xi ðtÞÞ þ c2 r2 ðgbest  Xi ðtÞÞ ð1Þ

Xi ðt þ 1Þ ¼ Xi ðtÞ þ Vi ðt þ 1Þ ð2Þ

1
Improved Particle Swarm Optimization [16].
An Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm with Repair Procedure 3

where w is the inertia weight factor. This parameter determines the impact of a
particle previous velocity on its current velocity, and affects the ability of global and
local exploration. Factors c1 and c2 are acceleration coefficients that determine how
much the particle is influenced by the memory of its best position and by the rest of
the swarm, respectively, r1 and r2 represent randomly generated numbers in the
range (0,1).

3 The Proposed RPSO Algorithm

In the proposed RPSO algorithm, the population consists of particles, each of which
has its own position and velocity randomly generated during initialization. Both
particle and its velocity are represented by D-dimensional vectors Xi = (xi1, xi2,…,
xiD) and Vi = (vi1, vi2,…, viD), respectively. The particles search a solution space,
and remember the best position found by themselves as well as their last velocity. In
each iteration (except the first one), after evaluating the particle position, a repair
procedure is applied. First, from the whole swarm, p particles with the worst fitness
are chosen. Next, for each p particle, two new velocities are calculated. These new
velocities are the functions of their previous and current velocities determined
according to the following formula:

velocity1i ðtÞ ¼ velocityi ðtÞ=ðvelocityi ðtÞ  velocityi ðt  1ÞÞ ð3Þ

velocity2i ðtÞ ¼ ðvelocityi ðt  1Þ  ðvelocityi ðtÞÞ=velocityi ðt  1ÞÞ ð4Þ

One of the new calculated velocities replaces the previous velocity but only
when the particle’s new position is closer to gbest, and the distance between the
particle and gbest (calculated by Euclidean distance) is greater than zero. In this
iteration, new positions of the particles, obtained through the new velocities, are not
evaluated by means of the fitness function. In the next step, for the remaining
particles as well as for those p particles for which the repair procedure was not
successful, a new velocity and a new position are calculated according to the
Eqs. (1) and (2). Next, the quality of the solutions represented by all the particles is
measured by means of the fitness function. For each particle, the best position found
so far and the best position within the entire swarm are established. These steps are
repeated until the stopping criterion is met.
In this way, RPSO algorithm can improve considerably the performance of
the PSO with low computational cost. The algorithm can be applied for solving
high dimensional optimization problems. However, in case of small swarms, the
algorithm can premature converge to one of the points of the search space.
4 B. Borowska

4 Results

The simulation tests of the proposed algorithms were carried out on the set of
benchmark function and the results were then compared with the performance of
the standard PSO algorithm, as well as with IPSO.
For all these algorithms, a set of parameters recommended by Trelea [27] with
inertia weight w = 0.6 and acceleration constants c1 = c2 = 1.7 were used.
For RPSO, the w parameter was linearly decreasing from 0.6 to 0.475. The number
of particles with the worst fitness p was set as 3.
For all the functions, the tests with three different dimension sizes D = 10, 20
and 30, for N = 20, 40 and 80 particles in the swarm, respectively, were performed.
A fixed number of maximum iterations 1000 was established for all the algorithms.
The information about the functions, the admissible range of the variable, and
the optimum used for the investigation are depicted in Table 1.
The exemplary results (mean function value, minimum, maximum, and standard
deviation) of the tests performed for 20, 40 and 80 particles of the swarm are
illustrated in Tables 2, 3, 4 and 5. The presented values were averaged over 50
trials.
The average best fitness in the following iterations for both RPSO, IPSO
algorithms and SPSO model for 40 particles (swarm size) and 30 dimensions are
illustrated in Figs. 1, 2, 3 and 4. The vertical coordinates indicate the average best
fitness in the form of logarithm value.
The results of simulations for benchmark test nonlinear function show that the
proposed algorithm with repair procedure gives superior optimization performance
over the standard PSO and IPSO (with sub-swarms). For all the considered func-
tions, the minimum and mean function values after 1000 iterations found by RPSO
are lower than the results obtained for the other algorithms (Tables 2, 3, 4, 5). The
standard deviation calculated for the RPSO is also lower what means that the
algorithm is more stable. For Ackley and Griewank function, the new algorithms
had also faster convergence than SPSO and IPSO as shown in Figs. 3 and 4. In case
of Rosenbrock and Rastrigin function, the IPSO algorithm was initially as fast as
RPSO (or even faster, Figs. 1, 2). However, after about 100 iterations, IPSO
converged slower than RPSO but still better than standard PSO.
It should be noted that when the number of particles in the swarm was increased,
the algorithm converged faster and the mean function value after 1000 iterations
was closer to optimum. Using too few particles in the swarm gave greater dis-
persion of the results and higher difference between minimal and maximal values
found by the swarm.
Table 1 Optimization test functions
Function Formula Minimum Range of x
Sphere n
P 0 (−100, 100)
f1 ¼ x2i
i¼1
Rosenbrock n1
Ph 0 (−30, 30)
f3 ¼ 100ðxi þ 1  x2i Þ2 þ ðxi  1Þ2
i¼1
Griewank n
P n
Q 0 (−600, 600)
1
f4 ¼ 4000 x2i  cosðpxiffiiÞ þ 1
i¼1 i¼1
Rastrigin n
P 0 (−5.12, 5.12)
f5 ¼ ðx2i  10 cosð2pxi Þ þ 10Þ
i¼1
sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi!
Ackley P n
 n
P 0 (−32, 32)
f6 ¼ 20 exp 0:2 1n x2i  exp 1n cosð2pxi ÞÞ þ 20 þ e
i¼1 i¼1
An Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm with Repair Procedure
5
 6

Table 2 Performance of the SPSO, IPSO and RPSO algorithms for Rosenbrock function
Population size Dimension Algorithm Mean function value Standard deviation Minimum Maximum
20 10 SPSO 3.9826e+001 1.5539e+001 5.7182e+000 6.9746e+001
IPSO 1.2857e+001 9.6048e+000 1.0750e−005 2.0095e+001
RPSO 1.2360e+001 1.1394e+001 1.1808e−006 1.9070e+001
20 SPSO 8.9422e+001 3.7105e+001 1.5205e+001 1.6432e+002
IPSO 7.1679e+001 3.2481e+001 1.0980e+000 1.2978e+002
RPSO 5.0170e+001 2.8733e+001 8.8276e+000 8.3798e+001
30 SPSO 1.4152e+002 1.7519e+002 2.1259e+001 8.3083e+002
IPSO 1.3523e+002 9.4150e+001 2.3050e+001 4.7808e+002
RPSO 1.3058e+002 1.4658e+002 2.4899e+000 6.3090e+002
40 10 SPSO 2.3952e+001 1.4272e+001 3.1325e−003 4.8156e+001
IPSO 4.6512e+000 1.5996e+000 8.2945e−004 6.2716e+000
RPSO 3.0685e+000 1.8423e+000 3.9409e−004 6.7658e+000
20 SPSO 5.8783e+001 4.1653e+001 6.1272e+000 7.4513e+001
IPSO 2.1732e+001 2.7055e+001 7.2713e−001 6.9242e+001
RPSO 1.9626e+001 3.1362e+001 4.2012e−001 6.1643e+001
30 SPSO 7.1643e+001 1.5214e+002 1.0082e+001 6.9345e+002
IPSO 2.6921e+001 5.1621e+001 5.8379e+000 1.2230e+002
RPSO 2.5262e+001 4.8905e+001 6.7201e−001 1.1412e+002
(continued)
B. Borowska
Table 2 (continued)
Population size Dimension Algorithm Mean function value Standard deviation Minimum Maximum
80 10 SPSO 1.6312e+001 1.1842e+001 1.5491e−001 2.3422e+001
IPSO 1.9864e−001 2.5293e+000 6.2411e−002 7.8831e+000
RPSO 1.7732e−001 2.6497e+000 4.5018e−002 9.0105e+000
20 SPSO 4.8356e+001 3.3905e+001 1.5273e−001 6.7410e+001
IPSO 1.4514e+001 2.4261e+001 8.9103e−002 5.1302e+001
RPSO 1.2722e+001 2.3502e+001 5.8073e−001 4.8809e+002
30 SPSO 6.7341e+001 1.3856e+002 4.2625e−001 5.4703e+002
IPSO 1.8753e+001 3.6872e+001 4.3502e−002 8.4038e+001
RPSO 1.6172e+001 3.2847e+001 2.6372e−001 8.3716e+001
An Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm with Repair Procedure
7
 8

Table 3 Performance of the SPSO, IPSO and RPSO algorithms for Rastrigin function
Population size Dimension Algorithm Mean function value Standard deviation Minimum Maximum
20 10 SPSO 6.0861e+000 4.8873e+000 2.9849e+000 2.7859e+001
IPSO 3.1724e+000 4.1259e+000 2.1322e+000 2.4861e+001
RPSO 2.8507e+000 3.6813e+000 2.5848e+000 1.5919e+001
20 SPSO 4.3380e+001 1.2097e+001 2.0894e+001 6.5667e+001
IPSO 3.5927e+001 1.2113e+001 1.7231e+001 5.9647e+001
RPSO 3.1411e+001 1.4215e+001 1.8416e+001 6.0533e+001
30 SPSO 7.8203e+001 1.7954e+001 4.7758e+001 1.2149e+002
IPSO 6.7182e+001 1.8065e+001 4.0674e+001 9.2319e+001
RPSO 5.8562e+001 1.4302e+001 8.8749e+000 8.9062e+001
40 10 SPSO 4.0816e+000 4.2259e+000 0.9945e+000 1.4924e+001
IPSO 2.9841e+000 3.9145e+000 0.4514e+000 1.1052e+001
RPSO 2.0865e+000 2.8289e+000 0.2717e+000 1.0193e+001
20 SPSO 2.1590e+001 9.8853e+000 1.0944e+001 3.3828e+001
IPSO 1.9271e+001 7.5127e+000 0.8912e+001 2.7118e+001
RPSO 1.7535e+001 9.1631e+000 0.9318e+001 2.9474e+001
30 SPSO 6.9049e+001 2.9212e+001 3.7808e+001 1.4227e+002
IPSO 5.6997e+001 2.2354e+001 2.9155e+001 1.0892e+002
RPSO 4.7706e+001 2.1053e+001 2.7808e+001 1.0049e+002
(continued)
B. Borowska
Table 3 (continued)
Population size Dimension Algorithm Mean function value Standard deviation Minimum Maximum
80 10 SPSO 2.3614e+000 4.2286e+000 0.9950e+000 6.9647e+000
IPSO 1.8102e+000 3.1215e+000 0.2513e+000 5.8912e+000
RPSO 1.2713e+000 1.8373e+000 0.2216e+000 5.3526e+000
20 SPSO 2.1103e+001 9.3464e+000 1.2934e+001 3.7808e+001
IPSO 1.6821e+001 8.1435e+000 0.9142e+001 3.1671e+001
RPSO 1.5374e+001 7.1919e+000 0.7355e+001 2.8459e+001
30 SPSO 5.3207e+001 1.4769e+001 4.5768e+001 9.5156e+001
IPSO 2.4136e+001 1.4111e+001 1.9230e+001 5.7438e+001
RPSO 2.1198e+001 1.3447e+001 1.7898e+001 5.3868e+001
An Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm with Repair Procedure
9
Table 4 Performance of the SPSO, IPSO and RPSO algorithms for Griewank function
10

Population size Dimension Algorithm Mean function value Standard deviation Minimum Maximum
20 10 SPSO 9.8191e−002 8.5931e−002 1.7226e−002 2.9240e−001
IPSO 7.4177e−002 7.6792e−002 7.1179e−003 2.2386e−001
RPSO 7.1255e−002 8.4535e−002 1.7226e−002 3.1734e−001
20 SPSO 7.0779e−002 7.0743e−002 1.0031e−005 1.7921e−001
IPSO 4.5634e−002 6.9889e−002 5.1899e−003 4.6754e−001
RPSO 3.8430e−002 3.1461e−001 1.2212e−014 1.0766e−000
30 SPSO 1.4819e−001 2.3667e−001 2.3633e−010 8.1062e−001
IPSO 3.8124e−002 4.3762e−002 3.0314e−003 5.3174e−001
RPSO 2.3537e−002 1.9389e−002 8.3105e−005 6.3420e−002
40 10 SPSO 7.5973e−002 7.2345e−002 7.3961e−003 1.1310e−001
IPSO 6.5308e−002 5.9416e−002 6.0923e−003 2.7154e−001
RPSO 6.3972e−002 2.6787e−002 9.8572e−003 1.0587e−001
20 SPSO 5.9014e−002 6.1108e−002 8.1091e−003 2.2167e−001
IPSO 4.0317e−002 6.3007e−002 5.8925e−003 2.9226e−001
RPSO 3.7292e−002 2.5899e−002 1.2316e−003 8.6261e−002
30 SPSO 3.2189e−002 4.6745e−002 7.9265e−003 2.0898e−001
IPSO 2.4315e−002 4.2167e−002 5.3216e−003 2.7435e−001
RPSO 1.5262e−002 9.2600e−003 1.8984e−014 2.9541e−002
(continued)
B. Borowska
Table 4 (continued)
Population size Dimension Algorithm Mean function value Standard deviation Minimum Maximum
80 10 SPSO 5.4372e−002 3.0411e−002 1.9697e−002 1.0819e−001
IPSO 4.3093e−002 6.0953e−002 5.4120e−003 4.1728e−002
RPSO 4.1984e−002 2.6819e−002 2.9562e−002 1.1062e−001
20 SPSO 1.7980e−002 1.2844e−002 0.0000e−000 3.6931e−002
IPSO 2.1372e−002 2.6325e−002 0.0000e−000 4.3422e−002
RPSO 2.1878e−002 2.3196e−002 0.0000e−000 7.3671e−002
30 SPSO 1.4498e−002 1.7779e−002 0.0000e−000 4.8906e−002
IPSO 2.1061e−002 2.2341e−002 0.0000e−000 3.8274e−002
RPSO 1.5740e−002 1.0931e−002 0.0000e−000 3.6769e−002
An Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm with Repair Procedure
11
Table 5 Performance of the SPSO, IPSO and RPSO algorithms for Ackley function
12

Population size Dimension Algorithm Mean function value Standard deviation Minimum Maximum
20 10 SPSO 3.1684e−001 6.6211e−001 3.9968e−015 2.0133e+000
IPSO 1.9934e−001 4.3812e−001 3.9853e−015 1.6462e+000
RPSO 1.7565e−001 3.5341e−001 3.9968e−015 1.1551e+000
20 SPSO 2.3405e+000 1.4689e+000 8.5709e−014 4.6041e+000
IPSO 1.8779e+000 5.7719e−001 6.5340e−001 2.7002e+000
RPSO 1.5389e+000 6.5959e−001 1.7119e−001 2.1712e+000
30 SPSO 4.2955e+000 1.3552e+000 2.4077e+000 6.0037e+000
IPSO 2.7830e+000 7.5923e−001 1.5800e+000 3.8577e+000
RPSO 2.5354e+000 7.1958e−001 1.1206e+000 3.6819e+000
40 10 SPSO 4.5983e−013 1.3556e−012 3.9968e−015 4.5264e−012
IPSO 0.0000e+000 0.0000e+000 0.0000e+000 0.0000e+000
RPSO 0.0000e+000 0.0000e+000 0.0000e+000 0.0000e+000
20 SPSO 9.4644e−001 8.0979e−001 3.9968e−015 2.1697e+000
IPSO 6.5472e−001 8.4720e−001 3.9968e−015 2.3224e+000
RPSO 5.4472e−001 6.7807e−001 3.9968e−015 1.6462e+000
30 SPSO 2.1083e+000 8.9137e−001 1.1552e+000 4.2969e+000
IPSO 1.6884e+000 8.4243e−001 2.1099e−006 2.8123e+000
RPSO 1.2989e+000 7.0879e−001 1.9508e−006 2.7368e+000
(continued)
B. Borowska
Table 5 (continued)
Population size Dimension Algorithm Mean function value Standard deviation Minimum Maximum
80 10 SPSO 4.0412e−016 1.3322e−016 3.9968e−015 4.4408e−015
IPSO 0.0000e+000 0.0000e+000 0.0000e+000 0.0000e+000
RPSO 0.0000e+000 0.0000e+000 0.0000e+000 0.0000e+000
20 SPSO 2.3103e−001 4.6206e−001 3.9968e−015 1.1551e+000
IPSO 1.4235e−001 4.2706e−001 3.9968e−015 1.4235e+000
RPSO 9.2951e−002 2.7886e−001 3.9968e−015 9.3425e−001
30 SPSO 1.1058e+000 1.0422e+000 3.2419e−014 2.7368e−001
IPSO 8.1875e−001 1.1504e+000 1.4655e−014 3.3637e−001
RPSO 5.5280e−001 7.3453e−001 1.4655e−014 2.1586e−001
An Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm with Repair Procedure
13
14 B. Borowska

Fig. 1 The average best fitness for Rosenbrock 30 and the population of 40 particles

Fig. 2 The average best fitness for Rastrigin 30 and the population of 40 particles

Fig. 3 The average best fitness for Griewank 30 and the population of 40 particles
An Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm with Repair Procedure 15

Fig. 4 The average best fitness for Ackley 30 and the population of 40 particles

5 Conclusions

In this paper, an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm called RPSO with
a repair procedure has been proposed. The aim of the repair procedure was to
determine new, better velocities for some particles when their current velocities are
inefficient. New velocities are the functions of previous and current velocities. The
new algorithm was tested with a set of benchmark functions, and the results were
compared with those obtained through the standard PSO and IPSO. Experimental
results have shown that the new algorithm is faster and more effective over the
standard PSO and IPSO for all considered functions. It was also noted that con-
vergence speed of proposed algorithm is considerably higher than that of SPSO.
The algorithm can be applied for solving high dimensional optimization prob-
lems. In case of small swarms, the algorithm can premature converge to one of the
points of the search space.

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Fuzzy Evaluation Method for Project
Profitability

Rekik Ali, Gabsi Mounir, Valentina Emilia Balas

and Masmoudi Nissen

Abstract The problem of the project management is performed with the

optimization task under uncertainty and subject to real-world constraints. We use
the probability theory and insufficiently proved methods, due to unavailable data
indeed we need different methods for a best way to evaluate uncertainty. One of
these approaches is based on the application of the fuzzy sets theory. Since its
inception in 1965, the theory of fuzzy sets has advanced in a variety of ways and in
many disciplines. Applications of this theory can be found, for example, in artificial
intelligence, computer science, medicine, control engineering, decision theory,
expert systems, logic, management science, operations research, pattern recogni-
tion, and robotics. This paper proposes a fuzzy decision making approach for
project selection problem under uncertainty. An evaluation is provided as an
illustration of the proposed approach. In the conclusion, we show how this method
can help decision makers in the selection of appropriate project based on their
profitability.

Keywords Fuzzy logic
Project management
Project selection
Uncertainty

R. Ali (&)
M. Nissen

Department of Informations Technology, Higher Institue of Technological Studies,
Road Mahdia Km 2.5, BP 88 A, 3099, El Bustan Sfax, Tunisia
e-mail: [email protected]
M. Nissen
e-mail: [email protected]
G. Mounir
Department of Informtions Technology, Higher Institute of Technological
Studies of Nabeul, AV: Campus Universitaire Mrezgua, 8000 Nabeul, Tunisia
e-mail: [email protected]
V.E. Balas
Department of Automation and Applied Informatics, Aurel Vlaicu University
of Arad, B-dul Revolutiei 77, 310130 Arad, Romania
e-mail: [email protected]

© Springer International Publishing AG 2017 17

N. Shakhovska (ed.), Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing,
Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing 512,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-45991-2_2
18 R. Ali et al.

1 Introduction

Project selection under uncertainty has become an important research topic in

project management [1, 6]. In this context, Markowitz [10] based on the variance of
project returns as a risk measure for the optimal project choice, introduced the
so-called mean-variance model. Companies should be well advised to use the
different management project concepts. Today, many organizations are faced with
the problem of the project selection and the resources allocation in order to create
an optimal decision during the project selection. Among the various models of
project selection, we can mention those based on multicriteria decision support
system, nonlinear, stochastic [18], linear, dynamic [12], fuzzy programming [14],
and fuzzy decision trees [13].
Existing scientific and methodological approaches have the following disad-
vantages [15]:
• Absence of generic risk assessment model that is invariant to the input
parameters;
• The results of mathematical modeling of the risk assessment require clearer
graphical interpretation.
The known models that aid in determining the degrees of risk are based on the
evaluation of a single parameter (criterion), which leads to the impossibility of
comparing the relative risk estimations for two or more parameters simultaneously.
The fuzzy sets theory is used to handle uncertain information in multiple sys-
tems, such as planning support systems and the decision support in the project
selection management systems. This theory offers an alternative framework for
dealing with uncertainty of the selection project parameters. Approximations of
these parameters can be estimated by experts based on their skills [5].
Buckley was one of the first authors who used the fuzzy sets in finance [2]. He
used them to represent the fuzzy present value, the fuzzy future value, and the fuzzy
internal rate of return.
Yu et al. have proposed a decision analysis tool based on several criteria for
assessing credit risk from the theory of fuzzy sets [16]. Reveiz and Leon [11] have
studied the operational risk in using the fuzzy inference system to take into account
the complex interaction and the non-linearity of these elements. Moreover, Leon
and Machado [7] have proposed an index established by using an inference system
based on fuzzy logic and allowing to make a general assessment of the relative
importance of a systematic financial institution.
The objective of this paper is to develop a fuzzy model in order to optimize the
innovative project selection under risk. The fuzzy set theory is used with the aim to
describe and reduce uncertainty in the information project [14].
Project selection problems have been discussed in a many management tasks
such as R&D [8, 9], quality management and environmental management [4].
Fuzzy Evaluation Method for Project Profitability 19

The objective of this paper is to develop a fuzzy model in order to optimize the
project profitability under risk. The fuzzy set theory is used with the aim to describe
and reduce uncertainty in the project selection.
The paper is organized as follow: Sect. 2 describes the basic concepts of the
fuzzy sets, in this case we introduce the notion of membership functions, the
different types of fuzzy numbers and the operations that we can apply on the fuzzy
sets. Section 3 represents an application of fuzzy logic to solve a selection project
problem by using the inference engine proposed by Mamdani. After that, we
introduce the input and output parameters of the proposed approach as well as the
membership functions for all model parameters, the simulating results obtained
according the inference steps. We analyze the experimental results and discuss the
parameters which have an impact on our approach in the Sect. 3.

2 The Basic Concepts of the Fuzzy Logic

The fundamental characteristic of a classical set is the abrupt boundary between two
categories of elements: those that belong to the set and those that do not belong to
it, since they belong to its complement. In this case, the membership relation is
represented by a function which takes μ truth values in the pair f0; 1g [17].
Hence, the membership function of a conventional set A is defined by:


0; if x 62 A
lA ðxÞ ¼ ð1Þ
1; if x2A

In contrast, a fuzzy set is any set which allows its elements to have different
membership grades (membership function) in the interval [0,1]. For a classical set
X, a fuzzy set is defined as follows:

A ¼ fðx; lð xÞÞ; x 2 X g: ð2Þ

The grade of the elements x in relation with the fundamental set X is defined by
the membership function μA(x).
For each element having a value of 0 means that the member is not included in
the given set, on the contrary if the value is 1 means full member included. Values
in the range from 0 to 1 characterize the fuzzy members.
We suppose that, A and B are two fuzzy sets, then we define the membership
function as follow:

lA [ B ð xÞ ¼ maxðlA ; lB Þ ð3Þ

lA \ B ð xÞ ¼ minðlA ; lB Þ ð4Þ
20 R. Ali et al.

lA ð xÞ ¼ 1  lA ð xÞ: ð5Þ

when X ¼ R is a set of real numbers, we talk about fuzzy numbers. In the practical
field, it is more convenient to work with fuzzy numbers of a special type: triangular
and trapezoidal.
The trapezoidal membership function is given by the formula:
8
>
> 0; for x\a1 or x [ a4
< xa1 ; for a1  x\a2
lA ðxÞ ¼ a2 a1 ð6Þ
>
> 1; for a2  x  a3
: a4 x ; for a3 \x  a4 ;
a4 a3

where a1  a2  a3  a4 .
For trapezoidal membership functions, we use the notation: A ¼ ða1 ; a2 ; a3 ; a4 Þ.
In the case where a2 ¼ a3 , we obtain a triangular membership function. Let us
notice that for triangular membership functions, we use the notation:
A ¼ ða1 ; a2 ; a3 Þ (Fig. 1).
Let us notice that fuzzy numbers can be added, subtracted, multiplied and
divided, as well as ordinary numbers. Moreover, the operations on fuzzy numbers
are determined by the following expansion principle.
Let c ¼ f ða; bÞ be an arbitrary numerical function. For example, concerning the
addition operation, f ða; bÞ ¼ a þ b. Then, the value of C ¼ f ðA; BÞ of this function
with the fuzzy numbers A and B has a membership function which is calculated by
the following formula:

lC ð xÞ ¼ sup minðlA ð xÞ; lB ð yÞÞ; ð7Þ

And their a—cuts are deduced according to the following formula:

Ca ¼ fc ¼ f ða; bÞja 2 Aa ; b 2 Ba g: ð8Þ

Fig. 1 Trapezoidal and triangular membership functions

Fuzzy Evaluation Method for Project Profitability 21

3 Application of Fuzzy Logic to the Project Selection

Based on the inference engine proposed by Mamdani, our method represents the
certainty degree about the coincidence of metadata elements and user’s preferences.
The typical structure of our method contains the following units: fuzzification,
defuzzification, and an interface system (Fig. 2).
• Fuzzification interface: simplify modifies the inputs so that they can interpreted
and compared to the rules on the rule base. The fuzzifier determines the degree
to which they belong of each input values to each of the fuzzy sets based on the
membership functions.
• Rule base: holds the knowledge, in the form of a set of rules, of how best to
control the system.
• An inference system: Inference mechanism allows mapping given input to an
output using fuzzy logic. It uses all pieces described in previous sections:
membership functions, logical operations and rules. They vary in ways of
determining outputs. Each rule is represented in the following form:

if X1 is A1 and . . . and Xn is An then Y is B

with Xi being input and Y output linguistic variables, and with Ai and B being
linguistic labels with fuzzy sets associated defining their meaning.
• A defuzzification interface: is allowed to find one single crisp value that sum-
marises the fuzzy set. There are several methods to solve this machanizm, and
the centroid method is considered as one among them. The centroid method
simply the weighted average of the output membership function.
It can be determined by the following formula:
Ra
xlðxÞdx

XðcentroidÞ ¼ Rba
b lðxÞdx

where [a, b] is the interval of the aggregated membership function.

Input Profitability
Rule Base
Factors

Inference
Inputs Fuzzification Defuzzification Outputs
Engine

Linguistic Linguistic
Variables Variables

Fig. 2 A typical structure of a fuzzy inference system

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to repose—you must be hungry. Supper is ordered. A pipe and
coffee will be brought to you, order what you please;’ then as he
withdrew he repeated again in a kind manner, ‘An English Effendi is
always a man of honour.’
Whilst inspecting the room and wondering what all this meant, I
heard a gentle step, and a tall graceful figure of a girl about
seventeen entered. She was dressed handsomely in a jacket used
by Turkish ladies, with a bodice open in front, like the square dresses
now worn by English ladies of an evening. She had on yellow silk
‘shalvas’ fastened by a white muslin sash, the ends of which were
prettily embroidered. Her complexion was olive, with very large dark
eyes and long eyelashes; her nose aquiline, and her mouth like a
ring set in ruby lips. She looked grave and sad, but blushes diffused
her cheeks as she bowed gracefully, and with a sweet smile put a
‘chebúk’ to my mouth, and then retired. Her hair was braided in
tresses around her head and adorned with coins. Two long braids
hung down her back.
 This vision of a Turkish maiden seemed like a dream, and whilst
pondering over the pretty figure that had just left and wondering
whether she would return, another damsel appeared bearing a cup
of coffee in a ‘finjan’ studded with precious stones. Bending before
me, she put it on the little table.
She appeared to be about fifteen, dressed like the bearer of the
‘chebúk,’ but of a fairer complexion, with dark blue eyes, her nose
retroussé. She was not so demure in her looks or manner, and
standing before me blushing and smiling with a mirthful expression,
said in a very sweet voice, ‘My father bids me ask if there is anything
you wish for, and to say your supper will soon be ready.’ After
thanking her, I held my tongue, remembering I was an ‘honourable
man.’ She retired, turning at the threshold to look at me, with a pretty
smile of mischief. Shortly afterwards the elder damsel reappeared,
bringing sherbet. I thanked her, and she bowed and withdrew.
Then the host followed to announce that supper was ready and
inquiring whether I had been properly attended to, led me to a lower
room, remarking that he thought I should be better able to enjoy my
repast without his presence, but that he hoped in the evening to
converse with me.
During the supper I was waited on by both the fair maidens, who
brought me in succession a number of savoury dishes, with fruit and
sweets of all kinds, for which the Turks are famous.
I partook of everything largely, to the evident amusement and
pleasure of the maidens. The elder was no longer so demure in her
manner, and the eyes of the younger sparkled with fun as she waited
on me; but I indulged in no conversation further than to thank them
now and then, saying ever to myself, ‘my host says I am an
honourable man;’ but I fear my looks betrayed my admiration.
 After supper the Bey conducted me to my apartment, where
coffee was brought to us by the damsels, both of whom, I learnt,
were his daughters. I expressed to the Bey my warmest thanks for
his hospitality, and for the great confidence he had shown by
admitting me amongst his family. Upon this, he said he would relate
why he had broken through the Mohammedan custom and usages
and bidden me welcome in his harem. He was fulfilling a vow made
years ago, that whenever he had an opportunity, he would
endeavour to give proof of his gratitude for kindness received from
the captain of a British merchant vessel.
‘When I was a young man,’ continued the Bey, ‘before I was
married, I went on a pilgrimage to Mecca. On my return I embarked
from Alexandria on a Turkish vessel bound to Constantinople. We
encountered a heavy gale; the vessel was old and rotten; leaks were
sprung, and the captain, crew, and myself who was the only
passenger, had barely time to get into the ship’s boat, when the
vessel sunk. I lost all my clothes and money, with the exception of a
few piastres. We expected every moment the boat would be
swamped by the heavy seas breaking around us, when a ship hove
in sight. Signals of distress were made, and she came to our
assistance, and we were all taken safely on board. She proved to be
an English vessel bound for Salonica. The captain, a kind-hearted
but rough-looking sailor, gave us dry clothes, dressed me in a warm
suit of his own and supplied us with food.
‘We arrived at Salonica and I was enabled through the pratique
master, who understood a little English, to express my gratitude. I
offered to pay for my passage and food. The captain was indignant,
and said he would not accept a farthing; but, on the contrary, having
learnt that I had no money to continue my voyage and had no friends
at Salonica, put a small sum into my hands which would enable me
to proceed to Constantinople.
‘You,’ he continued, ‘are the first Englishman to whom I have had
an opportunity of showing feelings of gratitude, long pent-up, to your
countryman who saved my life.’
I then told him that I was one of the Secretaries of the British
Embassy at Constantinople, and what had been the object of my
visit to Broussa. I said I should make known to the ‘great Elchi’ his
hospitality and kindness. He again impressed upon me his anxious
wish that I should keep my reception in his household a secret, and,
above all, the fact that I had been waited on by his daughters—for he
said it would be a serious matter if this was known to his co-
religionists. He consented, however, to my telling the Ambassador
confidentially all that had happened; but to my Turkish friends at
Constantinople I was only to mention that I and my servant had
received shelter for the night. He also requested me not to tell my
Greek attendant that I had seen any women in the house.
At sunrise next day I was up, and going into the courtyard gave
directions to my servant to have the horses ready for a start as soon
as I had breakfasted. He informed me that he had been well taken
care of. I gave the Greek several gold piastres, which I directed
should be distributed amongst the dependants of the Bey. He
informed me that he had learnt from the old gatekeeper that the Bey
had only one wife, and no other inmates of the harem except his two
daughters and some black slaves.
A good breakfast was ready for me as I re-entered the house, and
again the pretty damsels waited on me without the presence of their
father; and though I had lost my heart (it was an easy matter in those
days) to the blue-eyed little maiden, I refrained from saying more
than expressions of thanks in the most polite Turkish, keeping
steadfastly in mind that an ‘English gentleman is an honourable
man.’
On going away, the Bey accompanied me to the door, and whilst I
reiterated my warmest thanks, he put into my hand a little sealed
packet, observing, ‘You will pardon me for returning the handsome
“bakshish” you had directed the Greek to distribute amongst my
dependants. The latter have made known and returned to me what
they had received; I shall reward them, but I cannot allow that you
should do so. It would have given me,’ he added, ‘great pain if they
had retained the money, and it would have deprived me of the
pleasure and satisfaction I have felt in welcoming an Englishman to
my house.’ I said not a word, and put the money into my pocket. As I
left the house I could not help looking back as long as the lattice
windows were in sight, and thought I espied bright eyes peering out
at the parting guest; but I refrained from waving hand or
handkerchief.
Sir Stratford Canning, to whom I related this adventure
confidentially on my arrival, made known to the Porte that I had
received hospitality and great kindness from this Bey when
benighted on my return from Broussa, and expressed a hope that
the Porte would in some suitable form mark approval of such
kindness shown to a member of the Embassy.
The Turkish Government announced their satisfaction and thanks
for the report I had presented, through the Ambassador, giving the
result of my inquiry into the conduct of Pasha and Consul, and sent
to H.E. a Sultan’s ‘berat’ or edict, placing the Bey under the special
protection of the Porte and of His Imperial Majesty, and
recommending him to the good offices of the Pasha and other
officials.
This ‘berat’ I forwarded in a letter to the Bey; but, alas! I could not
send the messages I should have wished to have done to Fatima
and the ‘dil bere’ (heart-robber) Aisha.
That year Sir Stratford Canning, accompanied by all his family
and all the members of the Embassy except myself, who was left in
charge for a few days, made an excursion to Broussa and were
received with great attention and hospitality by the Pasha. In 1844
the latter was removed from his government and returned to
Constantinople, where he resided in a large kiosk on the Bosphorus.
In the summer of 1844, having obtained leave of absence from
Her Majesty’s Government, I made arrangements to embark in a
French steamer bound for Marseilles.
On taking leave of the Ambassador, he told me he had ordered
his ‘kaik’ to convey me from Buyukdere, where his Excellency then
resided, to the steamer in Pera harbour, but that he was anxious I
should call on the ex-Pasha of Broussa and present to him a gold
chronometer, worth about £60, as a token of his—Sir Stratford’s—
friendship, and acknowledgement of the hospitality shown to himself
and family on his visit.
His Excellency added, ‘I am especially anxious you should
present this gift, and renew your acquaintance with the Pasha, and
thus remove any feeling that might possibly exist in his mind
regarding the inquiry made by you into his and the Consul’s conduct,
and the decision that was come to by the Porte in consequence of
your report; for the Pasha will probably be employed again by the
Government, and when you return to the Embassy it is desirable that
you should both be on friendly terms.’ In pursuance of these
instructions I called on the Pasha, who received me very kindly and
told me he had a lively recollection of my visit to Broussa, and of my
statement in the report that both he and the Consul were in the
wrong and had been quarrelling upon trivial matters.
He laughed and added, ‘You were quite right; the Consul and I
made it up and became good friends, so I feel indebted to you for not
having unduly taken the part of your Consul.’
I presented the chronometer, with a suitable message from the
Ambassador, and then told the Pasha I could not wait for the usual
pipes and coffee, as I had to embark in a steamer which was about
to start. He replied that he should only detain me for a moment, and
left the room. He returned immediately, bringing a small green
leathern case, suspended in a little muslin kerchief, which he put into
my hands, saying, ‘You are going to your own country and you may
not return, so I beg you to keep this as a little souvenir of my
friendship.’
Though I knew not what were the contents of the leathern case, I
thought by the shape it was a ‘finjan’ or Turkish saucer for holding a
small cup; but as it is against the established regulations for a
diplomatic officer to accept presents from a foreign official, I told the
Pasha my scruples, and that it would affect me injuriously if I
accepted even the smallest gift.
He said all he could to induce me to waive my objection; but
finding me resolute, he became very grave, took the little muslin
kerchief containing the case from me, as I held it towards him, and
handed me back at the same time the case containing the watch,
saying that ‘if a Secretary of the Embassy cannot receive a little
token of friendship on going away, from a man who no longer holds
any appointment, neither can I, a retired Governor, accept this
chronometer from the Ambassador; have the goodness to make this
known to his Excellency, with my best thanks and excuses.’ As I felt
that Sir Stratford would be excessively annoyed if the gift were
returned, and might think I had not managed to present the gift in a
proper manner, I came (after some parley) to a compromise with the
Pasha, that he should retain the chronometer and I his gift; that I
should write a note at once to the Ambassador explaining all that
had happened, and dispatch it to his Excellency by the ‘kaik’ that
brought me; that if the Ambassador disapproved of my accepting the
gift I should be allowed to return it to the Pasha, with a letter of
explanation, and in such case he would retain the chronometer; but if
his Excellency approved, there was an end of the matter, and under
any circumstances, I told the Pasha, I was much pleased and most
grateful for his kind intention.
I sent off the ‘kaik’ to the Embassy, and proceeded in another to
the French steamer, which was about to leave. On getting into the
‘kaik,’ I opened the little leather case. It contained a small gold
‘finjan’ encrusted with rose diamonds, worth about £70.
Just as the steamer was on the point of leaving, the
Ambassador’s ‘kaik’ came alongside, with a messenger bringing a
note from Lady Stratford Canning. The note stated that the
Ambassador entirely approved all I had done, and directed that I
should keep the Pasha’s gift.
On my way to England I stopped at Paris for a few days to make
the acquaintance of Admiral Lalande, who had commanded the
French fleet which had been sent to Besika Bay during the Egyptian
question in 1840. He was married to the sister of my brother-in-law,
the late M. Mauboussin.
 The Admiral received me very cordially. He was looking ill, and
told me it was probable that he would be in his grave before the end
of three weeks, as he was suffering from an internal disease and
lived entirely upon milk. He was not confined to his couch but walked
about the room whilst conversing, as if full of vigour both in mind and
body. He asked me if I should see, whilst in London, Lord Ponsonby;
saying he was very anxious to send him ‘the message of a dying
man.’ I replied that I should make a point of calling on his Lordship,
from whom I had received much kindness. The Admiral then
observed that he entertained the highest opinion of Lord Ponsonby,
though he was aware that he had successfully opposed French
views and projects in Egypt, and had assumed an ascendency over
the minds of the Sultan and his advisers which redounded to his
credit as a diplomatist, though antagonistic to France.
‘From the fact,’ said the Admiral, ‘of my having such a high
opinion of the character of your Ambassador, it has been very painful
to me to have learnt, from communications which have been
imparted to me by my Government, that Lord Ponsonby is under the
impression that I took a prominent part in inducing the Turkish
Admiral to be a traitor to his sovereign and deliver over the Turkish
fleet to Mehemet Ali. It was of course,’ he said, ‘an event to which
much importance was attached by those who had desired to support
Mehemet Ali’s independence; but,’ he added, ‘no possible advantage
to French interests would ever have induced me to advise or
encourage any man to turn traitor to his sovereign, and I hold the
Turkish Admiral in utter contempt for that act of infamy. I am now,’ he
continued, ‘as I have told you, a dying man; in a few days you will
hear I have passed away, and I desire that you should convey to
Lord Ponsonby the following message:—“I swear, as a dying man,
that whatever may have been done by other French officials, I took
no part in the matter, nor indeed was I aware, until the Turkish fleet
was delivered over to Mehemet Ali, of the intention of the Turkish
Admiral.”
‘It is my anxious desire, as I have the highest opinion of Lord
Ponsonby as an honourable man, that any erroneous impression on
this subject should be removed from his mind before I die, and that
he should give me credit also for being an honourable man, and
incapable of counselling any one to turn traitor to his sovereign.
‘Take his Lordship,’ he added, ‘this message, and let me know
before I die whether he gives credence to my declaration.’ This I
promised to do.
Admiral Lalande related to me that, during the time the French
and British fleet lay together in Besika Bay, he had become very
intimate with Admiral Sir Robert Stopford, that they dined frequently
together and had become fast friends.
He observed that I was no doubt aware that it was then expected,
at any moment, that a declaration of war would take place, and that
an engagement would follow between the two fleets. ‘It is all settled
now,’ he said, ‘and we are at peace, so I can tell you confidentially
that we two old men talked over the probability of a sudden
declaration of war one evening after dinner, and as we each
expressed a sincere desire that no undue advantage should be
taken by either through receiving earlier tidings of a rupture, we
concerted that a private signal should be hoisted on our respective
flagships, the object of which should be unknown to the officers of
our fleets, when either of us received tidings that war was declared,
so that each might be prepared, without undue advantage, to take
measures for a fair fight. Every morning and evening we were wont
to look for this signal. At that time,’ the admiral continued, ‘the
French fleet was in first-rate order, and we had one vessel more than
the English at anchor, as the latter had a vessel or two on the coast
of Egypt.
‘Your fleet,’ he said, ‘was also in admirable order, but we were
quite your match; and I tell you frankly that though I have no
unfriendly feeling towards your nation, I die a disappointed man in
that I lost the opportunity of a fight; for I had hoped, if not victorious,
to have been able to wage such a battle as would have wiped out
the defeats our squadrons and ships had almost always experienced
in the last great war.’
Lord Ponsonby was in town when I arrived; he took the greatest
interest in the message I brought him, and requested me to inform
Admiral Lalande it was perfectly correct that he had been led to
believe he had induced, or secretly encouraged, the Turkish Admiral
to deliver up the fleet to Mehemet Ali; but that Admiral Lalande’s
declaration was sufficient to convince him that he was mistaken, and
that he greatly regretted having joined with others in putting forward
such an accusation. He requested me also to say that he was much
pleased and gratified that the Admiral should have desired to have
this matter cleared up, and told me to thank him and to express a
hope that he would yet live for many years to serve his country.
I wrote to Admiral Lalande and made known Lord Ponsonby’s
reply. My letter reached him a few days before his death, which
occurred within the three weeks, as he had prognosticated.
In the same year I was directed, by order of Her Majesty’s
Government, to accompany Colonel Barnett to Egypt, on his
appointment as Political Agent and Consul-General, and remained
there several months. After a few weeks’ residence at Cairo, I was
offered by Lord Palmerston, through Colonel Barnett, the post of
Consul at Alexandria, which the latter endeavoured to persuade me
to accept as he urged it would lead to my being appointed his
successor; but the climate of Egypt did not agree with me and I
declined, preferring to return to the Embassy at Constantinople.
Commodore Porter was at this time Minister of the United States
at Constantinople.
He was a distinguished officer, who had rendered important
services during the war with Great Britain. The commodore was very
eccentric, a type of the rough sailor of by-gone days, but pleasant
and amusing, and, when spinning yarns about actions between
British and United States ships, always careful to avoid—even when
the story related regarded the capture by himself of one of our ships
—any expression which he thought might wound my susceptibilities
as a ‘Britisher.’
He lived at San Stefano, a village about ten miles from
Constantinople. I had made the acquaintance of his nephew, Mr.
George Porter, the Secretary of the United States Legation, who
frequently invited me—when there was a passage of quail—to a
day’s shooting and to dinner with his uncle; but I was the only
member of the Diplomatic Corps at Constantinople thus favoured.
Since he had presented his credentials to the Sultan, and made
the usual formal visits to his colleagues, he called upon no one—not
even upon the Vizir or any member of the Turkish Government.
One day, after dinner, I happened to relate to the Commodore a
political event that had recently occurred, in which he appeared to
take great interest; so, finding him in good humour, I took the liberty
of observing that, as he had mentioned he never visited or received
visits from members of the Turkish Government or of the Diplomatic
Corps, I thought he must find it a difficult matter to keep his
Government properly and correctly informed upon passing events,
which were at that time of the greatest importance to the political
world.
The Commodore replied, his eyes twinkling with humour, ‘I am
very careful to keep my Government fully informed of all that takes
place, and I receive replies expressing satisfaction with my
interesting reports and the foresight they declare I show in predicting
events which are likely to happen.’
‘Now,’ said the Commodore, ‘I will make known to you, in the
greatest confidence, how I acquire the information which enables me
to draw up those very able reports. I take Galignani’s Messenger,
which reaches me regularly, and this paper—as you know—contains
extracts from the English and foreign journals, with reports from their
correspondents at Constantinople, regarding the various questions
which are taking place and other occurrences of a political character.
I have all these under my careful consideration, and, assisted by the
local knowledge of my nephew, draw my conclusions and transmit,
with some slight alteration in language, copies of the articles which
appear in the Galignani. I may be sometimes three or four days later
than my colleagues in forwarding reports of passing events to our
respective Governments, but I flatter myself that the digest of the
views entertained by the able reporters at Constantinople is
preferable to, and less likely to mislead the United States
Government than the reports which many of my excellent
colleagues, carried away sometimes by personal motives, may
transmit to their Governments.’
 CHAPTER VI.

MISSION TO TANGIER.
 In 1844 Mr. Hay went to England on leave, and visited also
Stockholm and Copenhagen. At this latter capital he met the ‘fair girl’
who was to be his future wife, as Leila had predicted. Whilst in
Stockholm, he was presented to King Oscar by our Minister, Mr.
Cartwright, and in the course of conversation with His Majesty about
Morocco, pointed out the advisability of abolishing the old
Convention between Morocco and Sweden, and Morocco and
Denmark, which stipulated that $25,000 (£5,000) should be paid
annually to the Sultan, in order that vessels under the flags of these
two nations should pass the Straits unmolested by Moorish cruisers;
these cruisers having virtually ceased to exist, though the
Convention remained in force.
A rupture of relations between France and Morocco was at this
time imminent, and Mr. Hay’s father, then Political Agent at Tangier,
had been sent, with the knowledge of the French Government, to the
city of Marákesh on a mission to endeavour to induce the Sultan to
accept the French demands. On hearing of this expedition Mr. Hay
wrote to Lord Aberdeen, who was then Secretary for Foreign Affairs,
to offer his services temporarily in Morocco. This offer was accepted.
That Mr. Hay, while at Constantinople, had gained the kindly
opinion of Sir Stratford and Lady Canning may be gathered from the
following letter written to him after his departure from Constantinople,
when Lady Canning learnt that he had been sent to Tangier. The
note was accompanied by the gift of a beautiful cushion in Turkish
embroidery.

You must not leave Constantinople, my dear Mr. Hay, without some little
memento from me to remind you in future days of our life spent together on the
Bosphorus in which, though it may have had some cloudy moments, I hope the
bright ones have preponderated and will alone be remembered by you. We shall
miss you sadly; for your labours have not been thrown away on Sir Stratford, and
you have helped to keep us all in good humour with our neighbours, and for all this
I thank you much. Let us hear of you often, and believe that we shall feel interest
in all that concerns you.
Yours very sincerely,
 E. C. Canning.

Mr. Hay arrived at Tangier shortly after the bombardment of that

town by the Prince de Joinville. Notwithstanding the promises made
by the French Government that hostilities should not be commenced
until his father returned from the Court, where he had actually
succeeded in obtaining consent to the chief demands of the French,
the Prince had bombarded Tangier. This unexpected outbreak of
hostilities placed in jeopardy the life of the elder Mr. Hay, who was
still in the interior and who had to pass, on his return from Marákesh
to Tangier, through districts inhabited by wild tribes.
Some of the difficulties with which his father had been confronted
in dealing with the Sultan are touched on in the following letter
written on the return journey from his mission to Marákesh, dated
Camp on the Wad Nefis, July 26, 1844:—

’Tis a sad thing that all folks in Europe, my masters in Downing Street may not
be excepted, have hardly any just conception of the difficulties of my position. It
would take a volume—not small—to relate the bother and the tricks and bad faith
with which I have had to contend—and as to going fast, as Mr. Bulwer has
everlastingly urged, who among mortal men can make Moors go fast, nay, nor
hardly move at all—in the straight path of honour and sound policy? . . .
Alas! I know not what to think. I had hoped the French would have waited until
my report reached Tangier or myself arrived there and told them all. So they are
now preparing to cast fire and the sword on this unhappy country of ignorant
barbarians.
The Moors are mere children, vain children; obstinate, through a shocking
bigotry and ignorance scarcely credible. They have, I believe, had at least two
collisions with the French on their frontier; but all their acts of folly were, I am
certain, without authority. Alas, again, for the poor Sultan; he cannot manage his
own people! If the war do burst forth here, when shall it end? There will be an
internal revolution forthwith, I am almost sure! And drivellers in pomposity and self-
sufficiency would ever publish that all was well.

The elder Mr. Hay did not long survive the effects of the journey,
with all its worry and vexation; but succumbed shortly after his
return, to low fever and other complaints. During his illness, which
lasted several months, Mr. John Hay was directed by Lord Aberdeen
to take charge of political affairs in Morocco, whilst Mr. H. Murray, the
Consul, conducted the consular duties.
The crisis was one of considerable importance. In addition to the
internal difficulties of Morocco, questions with foreign Powers
embarrassed the Sultan’s Government. Denmark and Sweden had
sent squadrons in this year to Moorish waters, demanding the
abrogation of the treaty referred to in Mr. Hay’s audience of King
Oscar.
The Spanish Government had also a question pending with
Morocco regarding the neutral ground and frontier of Ceuta; and, for
the settlement of this question, Sir Henry Bulwer, then H.B.M.’s
Minister at Madrid, had been appointed special Plenipotentiary.
In the following letter to his late chief at Constantinople Mr. Hay
gives an account of the state of affairs which he found on his arrival
at Tangier.

Sept. 12, 1844.

My dear Sir Stratford,
I received yesterday Y.E.’s kind letter of 27th ult.
Your Excellency will no doubt have learnt, both from H.M.’s Government and
the newspapers, accounts of passing events in this country, so I only relate the
more recent that I have witnessed.
The day before yesterday the French squadron arrived, consisting of two line-
of-battle ships and five steamers, having on board the Prince de Joinville, Mons.
de Nion, the French Chargé d’Affaires, and the Duc de Glücksberg (Decazes), an
adjunct Plenipotentiary sent for the purpose of meeting the Moorish
Plenipotentiary, Sid Buselham Ben Ali, to arrange the conditions for peace. I
received, the same morning, a letter from Mr. Bulwer acquainting me with the
nature of the French demands, which proved to be identic with those already
granted to my father by the Sultan of Morocco during his late mission.
The Moorish Plenipotentiary, Sid Buselham, has received orders from the
Sultan to be guided by our counsels in replying to the various demands of the
French. I accordingly went to see the Sid and made known to him the nature of the
French demands, telling him they were just and such as could be granted without
lowering the dignity of the Sultan. I pointed out the proper answers to be made,
and urged him to settle the matter the very day that the demands were presented;
and thus it happened that three hours did not elapse from the time they were
made, until the French flag was hoisted and flying at the Residence of their Chargé
d’Affaires and was saluted by the batteries.
The substance of the demands was as follows:—
‘That Abd-el-Kader be considered as a common enemy and, if taken by either
party, be confined in a State prison at some distant port. The frontier to be marked
out as in the time of the Turks. The withdrawal of the French troops from Ujda,
except 3,000 men. A new treaty to be made embracing the above conditions, and,
when ratified, Ujda and the Island of Mogador are to be given up by the French
and all prisoners exchanged and set free.
The question that may now be asked is—What has been the object of the
French in all this? For their demands remain the same and the concessions are
the same as before the war: and although they say the Sultan is faithless, they
never gave time to test whether he would be so or not, after having pledged
himself to a British agent to act with good faith—but this, it strikes me, is the sore
point.
French supremacy is aimed at, throughout Eastern and Western Barbary, and
an arrangement effected through the good offices of a British agent militates
against that supremacy.
The foolish language of a British officer high in rank, on the other side of the
water, declaring that England would never allow a gun to be fired at a Moorish
port, roused the worst feelings towards us throughout the French squadron,
participated in by the Prince; so, five hours before my father’s arrival from the
Moorish Court (although hourly expected, and feeling that to bombard Tangier after
hearing vivâ voce that the Sultan had granted their demands, would be un peu trop
fort), having bombarded Tangier in the presence of two British ships of war and, I
may say, of our garrison at Gibraltar, off they go to Mogador—the mouth, as the
Moors call it, of British commerce with Central Africa, where we have a
considerable trade. They destroy the forts, and the destruction of the town is
completed by the wild tribes, who burn, pillage, and murder, committing barbarities
on a par with the wanton and uncalled-for proceedings of the French. After striking
this blow at British trade, the French embark and return here to make peace!!
Well it is, that peace is made; for the country is in a state of revolution; the
Sultan totters on his throne, and in a few weeks such a state of anarchy would
have ensued that no Europeans could have remained in the country. There would
have been no Government to treat with, and of the five millions of people, only
robbers and pirates would have come to the front.
 How would England have liked this? How would other countries? How would
France?—pledged as she is to us not to take possession of any part of Morocco.
What would she gain but to have roused a spirit of revenge amongst these wild
inhabitants of a country capable of maintaining ten Abd-el-Kaders, as soon as they
learn how to war with disciplined armies? An army of 20,000 men, well disciplined,
might march from one end of the Empire to the other, but to hold the country
200,000 would not suffice.
The French interest, therefore, was not to have weakened the Sultan’s power,
but to have given him time to put in execution his promises and to have helped him
in so doing, if required; but the shaft was shot at ‘Albion la perfide’—Albion, whose
agent here, ever since the conquest of Algiers, has been instructed to hold, and
has held, but one language, that of urging the Sultan not to give ground of offence
to his powerful neighbour, and above all not to support or mix himself up with Abd-
el-Kader.
The Spanish affair is also concluded. My father brought back very full
concessions, and on Mr. Bulwer’s arrival at Gibraltar, with full powers from Spain,
all matters were settled at once by the Moors, and I had the satisfaction of having
used my humble efforts in effecting this.
The Danish and Swedish affairs are in a fair way of being settled amicably, and,
although I must not blow my own trumpet, yet I am sure your Excellency will be
pleased to learn that I have gained some credit at home for the part I have taken in
these affairs which, in consequence of my father’s serious illness, have been
entirely under my guidance, as being the sole medium of communication both
verbally and in writing. I can assure your Excellency that I daily feel the benefit
reaped from the excellent school of diplomacy in which I passed my probation in
the East; and if I have been of use to Her Majesty’s Government, the lessons I
there learnt have been my guide; if I have failed, it has been my own fault.
There is one more remark which I wish to add—that I look upon Morocco as a
field upon which there will often be like cause for anxiety to Europe, and especially
to Great Britain; and how can it be otherwise when we consider the conflicting
characters of the people on the frontier? Such being the case, it becomes more
urgent than ever that some understanding be come to with France by England, for
preserving the integrity of this Empire, and that their agents here should be
persons that act up to the peaceful spirit of their instructions—otherwise a bone of
dissension will ever be found in West Barbary.

Owing to his father’s illness and subsequent death, the settlement

of the complicated questions alluded to in this letter devolved on Mr.
Hay. In this task he acquitted himself with credit, as is proved by the
satisfaction of his official chief at Madrid, and the recognition of his
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