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Elpida Kolokytha · Satoru Oishi
Ramesh S.V. Teegavarapu Editors

Sustainable Water
Resources Planning and
Management Under
Climate Change
Sustainable Water Resources Planning
and Management Under Climate Change
Elpida Kolokytha • Satoru Oishi
Ramesh S.V. Teegavarapu
Editors

Sustainable Water Resources

Planning and Management
Under Climate Change

123
Editors
Elpida Kolokytha Satoru Oishi
School of Civil Engineering The Research Center for Urban Safety
Division of Hydraulics and Environmental and Security
Engineering Kobe University
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Kobe, Hyogo, Japan
Thessaloniki, Greece

Ramesh S.V. Teegavarapu

Department of Civil, Environmental
and Geomatics Engineering
Florida Atlantic University
Boca Raton, FL, USA

ISBN 978-981-10-2049-0 ISBN 978-981-10-2051-3 (eBook)

DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-2051-3

Library of Congress Control Number: 2016955299

© Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2017

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of
the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,
broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information
storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology
now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication
does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant
protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book
are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or
the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any
errors or omissions that may have been made.

Printed on acid-free paper

This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature

The registered company is Springer Science+Business Media Singapore Pte Ltd.
Preface

This book, entitled Sustainable Water Resources Planning and Management Under
Climate Change, deals with a fundamental component of engineering design and
practice under changing climate. Due to climate change and other sources of non-
stationarity, the traditional approaches that are currently available for understanding,
modeling and evaluating hydrological processes are not adequate. Complexity
creates non-linear behavior in the entire system, which needs new knowledge to
be addressed. Mitigation and adaptation policies are important to tackle climate
change, extreme events, and water scarcity. This book contains chapters by distin-
guished scientists from different regions of the world covering topics that range from
hydrologic modeling to management and policy responses to climate variability
and change with primary emphasis on water resources management. The authors
also provide insight into regional problems supported by results from several real-
life case studies. The book also touches upon the issue of climate variability,
applications and limitations of climate change models, and scenarios related to
precipitation projections that ultimately relate to the future availability of water
resources. It also includes discussions on policy options to deal with climate change
through interesting study results and examples of applications of theory from almost
all over the world.
This work is respectfully dedicated to the late Professor Toshiharu Kojiri by the
authors who were his friends, research collaborators, or students. Professor Kojiri
was born in Kyoto, Japan. He graduated from the Graduate School of Engineering,
Kyoto University, and he received the Doctor of Engineering degree from Kyoto
University based on his thesis work entitled “Systems approach on quantity and
quality control of water by using multi-dams”. Dr. Kojiri started his academic career
as a research associate in the Department of Civil Engineering, Kyoto University.
He later became an associate professor in the Disaster Prevention Research Institute
(DPRI) of Kyoto University. After serving some time in Kyoto University he moved
to Gifu University as associate professor and soon became full professor there.
He returned to the DPRI, Kyoto University, as a full professor in 1997. Professor
Kojiri took the role of chair of the Committee on Water Resources Management
in the International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research

v
vi Preface

(IAHR). He and his co-authors published several original and seminal articles on
water resources management and hydrological modeling that are referenced in a
number of research publications and studies throughout the world. His outstanding
contributions in advanced research focus on issues related to impacts of climate
change on the hydrologic cycle and water resources management. Unfortunately,
the water resources community lost a well-accomplished researcher and leader in
November of 2011, when Professor Kojiri passed away after a long battle with
cancer.
Professor Kojiri had always advocated progress in water sciences and develop-
ment of new methods and their practical applications for the benefit of society.
We believe that this book, as a small token of respect towards his outstanding
work and contributions to water resources engineering, will serve to honor his
research, and promote and motivate many readers around the world to strive for
a better understanding of water resources management under changing climate.
We hope the book will provide significant help to practicing engineers, academic
researchers, engineering professionals, and students from different regions of the
world. We expect to receive objective feedback from readers of the book. We also
strongly believe that the book will in its own way promote and fulfill the late
Professor Kojiri’s wishes for the water resources community to continue the efforts
of developing new approaches, handling and solving challenging multidisciplinary
water resources problems, and lay a path for water resources management under a
future uncertain climate.

Thessaloniki, Greece Elpida Kolokytha

Kobe, Japan Satoru Oishi
Boca Raton, FL, USA Ramesh S.V. Teegavarapu
Contents

Part I Hydrological Aspects of Climate Change

1 Climate Variability and Changes in Precipitation
Extremes and Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Ramesh S.V. Teegavarapu
2 Hydrologic Extremes Under Climate Change:
Non-stationarity and Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Arpita Mondal and P.P. Mujumdar
3 Impact of Climatic and Land Use Changes on River Flows
in the Southern Alps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Roberto Ranzi, Paolo Caronna, and Massimo Tomirotti

Part II Decision Making for Managing Water Resources

Systems Under Climate Change
4 Ranking of Global Climate Models for Godavari and
Krishna River Basins, India, Using Compromise
Programming . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
K. Srinivasa Raju, D. Nagesh Kumar, and Naga Babu I
5 Integrated Reservoir Operation Considering Real-Time
Hydrological Prediction for Adaptive Water Resources
Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
Daisuke Nohara and Tomoharu Hori
6 Optimization of Integrated Operation of Dams Using
Ensemble Prediction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
Satoru Oishi

vii
viii Contents

Part III Adaptive Policy Under Climate Change: Case

Studies
7 Adaptation to Climate Change: Risk Management . . . . . .. . . . . . . 157
Slobodan P. Simonovic
8 Adaptation to Climate Change: Decision Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
Young-Oh Kim and Eun Sung Chung
9 Adaptation to Climate Change: Green Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223
Elpida Kolokytha
10 Adaptation to Climate Change: Institutional Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261
Ana Cristina Souza da Silva, Carlos de Oliveira Galvão,
Márcia Maria Rios Ribeiro, and Tafnes da Silva Andrade

Part IV The Way Ahead

11 Climate Change Impacts and Water Resource
Management and Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
Elpida Kolokytha, Carlos de Oliveira Galvão,
and Ramesh S.V. Teegavarapu

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297
 Part I
Hydrological Aspects of Climate Change
Chapter 1
Climate Variability and Changes
in Precipitation Extremes and Characteristics

Ramesh S. V. Teegavarapu

Abstract Climate variability and change are expected to bring several changes
to hydrologic cycles and regimes in different parts of the world. Natural climate
variability based on large-scale, global inter-year, quasi-decadal and decadal, and
multidecadal-coupled oceanic–atmospheric oscillations (e.g., El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO), Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD))
contribute to regional variations in extremes and characteristics of essential climatic
variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, etc.) in different parts of the globe. These
oscillations defined based on climate anomalies that are related to each other at
large distances (referred to as teleconnections) are known to impact regional and
global climate. Linkages of these teleconnections to the variability in regional
precipitation patterns have been well documented in several research studies. This
chapter focuses on evaluation of climate variability influences on precipitation
extremes and characteristics. Several indices and metrics are discussed for such
evaluation, and a few results from case studies are presented.

Keywords Climate variability • Precipitation extremes and characteristics •

Coupled oceanic and atmospheric oscillations • Hydrologic design

1.1 Climate Variability: Introduction and Background

Our terrestrial environment continues to transform under the natural cyclic varia-
tions of climate and evolve due to changing climate mainly influenced by human
activities. Climate variability generally denotes deviations in climatological statis-
tics over a given period, and these deviations are usually referred to as anomalies.
Variability can be associated with natural internal processes within a climate system
or anthropogenic influences referred to as external forcings. Climate change on the
other hand refers to a significant variation in state of the climate over an extended

R.S.V. Teegavarapu ()

Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatics Engineering,
Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, USA
e-mail: [email protected]

© Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2017 3

E. Kolokytha et al. (eds.), Sustainable Water Resources Planning
and Management Under Climate Change, DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-2051-3_1
4 R.S.V. Teegavarapu

period of time again linked to both internal and external anthropogenic influences.
Essential climatic variables (ECVs) that have been observed, reconstructed, and
projected in future by climate change models tell different stories of our changing
planet’s climate. Understanding these changes from the past based on limited
observations and adapting to future changes based on uncertain projections of future
climate derived from climate models (Teegavarapu 2010) are two main challenges
faced by water management agencies. Separating clean signal of natural cyclical
changes of climate from noise of human-induced changes is a difficult task we need
to understand and undertake.

1.2 Coupled Oceanic–Atmospheric Oscillations

Natural climate variability on multiple timescales (ranging from inter-annual,

multidecadal, and longer geologic timescales) is a major obstacle to the reliable
characterization of global climate changes resulting from human activities (Ghil
2002; Gurdak, et al. 2009). Quantifying the human fingerprint on climate change
and predicting future changes are two of the greatest challenges facing all scientists
who are involved in understanding variability of hydrologic cycles in different
regions around the world. Detection and attribution which deal with identification
of trends in essential climatic variables (ECVs) and address the causes, respectively,
generally lead the current climate change and impact studies. Climate change is
expected to bring several changes to hydrologic cycles and regimes in different
parts of the world. In addition to uncertain sea level rise rates and future changes
in temperature and precipitation patterns, human-induced climate change masks the
natural climate variability. This is primarily because they are dependent on large-
scale, global decadal oscillation weather systems. Some of these are limited to
large multidecadal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies which have significant
impacts on regional and global climate.

1.3 Inter-year, Decadal, and Multidecadal Oscillations

The following sections provide brief descriptions of inter-year, decadal, and multi-
decadal oscillations.

1.3.1 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The ENSO is a slow oscillation in which the atmosphere and ocean in the tropical
Pacific region interact to produce a slow, irregular variation between two phases:
the warm and cool phase of ocean temperatures. ENSO is a major source of inter-
annual climatic variability in many regions of the world. One of the indices used for
1 Climate Variability and Changes in Precipitation Extremes and Characteristics 5

Fig. 1.1 Variation of ONI used for the determination of ENSO phases

defining two phases of ENSO is Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). The index is calculated
based on observed sea surface temperature in the region that spans a swath from 5ı N
to 5ı S latitude and 120ı W to 170ı W longitude. Figure 1.1 shows the ONI values
and especially values above 2 indicating strong El Niño years. These variations
are more commonly known as El Niño (the warm phase) and La Niña (the cool
phase). Even though ENSO is centered in the tropics, the changes associated with
El Niño and La Niña events affect climate around the world. ENSO events tend
to form between April and June and typically reach full strength in December.
ENSO is by far the most studied teleconnection and probably most publicized due
to strong El Niño events of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 which lead to the highest
damages to agricultural and other sectors. ENSO is considered as the single largest
cause of extremes in precipitation (as well as the cause of inter-annual variability)
accounting for 15–20 % of the global variance of precipitation (Dai et al. 1997).
The contribution is higher than 20 % in ENSO regions. These conclusions were
based on monthly gridded datasets from 1900 to 1988. Studies performed by Goly
and Teegavarapu (2012) indicated that El Niño is responsible for higher precipitation
totals compared to La Niña in the months of December to February in Florida, USA.
The conclusions were based on gridded precipitation datasets and also historical
precipitation data from several rain gauges.

1.3.2 Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a naturally occurring oceanic–

atmospheric phenomenon on the North Atlantic Ocean that manifests in variability
of SST. The AMO index is calculated using SST anomalies calculated in the region
6 R.S.V. Teegavarapu

between the latitude of 75.0ı N and 0.0ı S and between the longitudes of 10.0ı E and
75.0ı W. Temperature variations have been instrumentally observed for over 150
years, but considering paleoclimatic evidence, such as ice cores and tree rings, it
can be concluded that AMO has been present for the last millennium. To better
understand this naturally occurring oscillation, and its effect on extreme events, it
is helpful to study past phases. SST is an indicator of a specific phase. During the
warm phase, elevated SST is generally observed, while the cold phase experiences
lower SST. Since instrumental temperature records are available only from 1880, the
existence of two phases of AMO, dating back to the nineteenth century or earlier,
can be confirmed only possible using sediment core or tree ring data. United States
Geological Survey (USGS) 2011 used data from sediment core from the Gulf of
Mexico and coral core from Puerto Rico and found that these two sources showed
a similar variability and correlated with the instrumental temperature data of the
twentieth century, concluding that SST oscillations have existed at least since the
1800s. AMO has two phases, warm and cool, with each phase lasting about 20–
40 years, yielding in an approximate of 70 years long cycle. Between the extreme
values of the cool and warm phases, an SST difference of 1 ı F can be observed.
The effects of AMO can either obscure or exaggerate the global warming due to
anthropogenic sources, depending on the current phase. AMO is known to have
impacts on temperature, rainfall, hurricanes, drought, or floods. There are several
different studies and agencies that determine warm and cool phases for the AMO,
some of which determine the intervals with gaps between them, such as Enfield et
al. (2001), which lists the cool periods to be 1905–1925 and 1970–1990 and the
warm periods to be 1930–1960 and 1995–2010. Some studies (e.g., Koch-Rose et
al. 2011; Teegaravapu et al. 2013) have used different intervals for AMO, without
leaving any gaps between them. The intervals are consecutive and include every
year from 1985 to 2010. Since the phases of AMO can last up to 20 to 30 years, it is
possible to make a clear distinction about the effects when studying historical data of
precipitation extremes. A study published by USGS (2011) looked at the frequency
of hurricane occurrences, under the different phases of AMO. Using historical data
provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the
number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes was counted. It was concluded that during
the 26 years long negative phase, eight hurricanes made landfall, while the positive
phase lasting only 13 years experienced 14 hurricane landfalls.

1.3.3 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is an inter-decadal climate variability phe-

nomenon characterized by changes in sea surface temperature, sea level pressure,
and wind patterns. The warm and cold phases are defined by positive and negative
values of PDO index, respectively. The oscillation was discovered in 1997 by Steven
Hare who has conducted a study on salmon fisheries in the Pacific Northwest. PDO
1 Climate Variability and Changes in Precipitation Extremes and Characteristics 7

is characterized by the sea surface temperature and sea level pressure change that
occurs over the North Pacific Ocean (Mantua et al. 1997; Mantua and Hare 2002).
Tree ring analysis suggests that this phenomenon has existed and reoccurring with
50–70 years intervals (Mantua et al. 1997). To determine the driving forces of the
PDO, statistical analysis was applied on the SST, the sea level pressure (SLP), and
the wind stress across the North Pacific Ocean (Schneider and Cornuelle 2005). This
was done to study the temporal and spatial effects of this climate variability. The
climate variations related to PDO have significant effects across the North Pacific,
as well as the Americas with influences on the water resources, fisheries, and other
natural habitats.

1.3.4 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Wallace and Gutzler 1980) is characterized
by low pressure occurring over Iceland and high pressure over the Azores, which
is centrally located between Portugal and North America. NAO is in the positive
phase when the Icelandic low pressure and the Azores subtropical high pressure
are strongly dominant. During this phase the Atlantic experiences stronger westerly
winds, which bring storms in higher frequency to Europe. When NAO is in the
positive (warm) phase, the east coast of North America has a milder winter with
above-average temperatures and more precipitation. During the positive phase,
the crossing storms are stronger and more frequent, in a northern direction.
Winter conditions are warm and wet across Europe, while Canada and Greenland
experience cold and dry conditions. Negative phase will occur when the pressure
areas, the Icelandic low and the Azores high, are not as dominant. In this phase, the
westerly winds are weaker, allowing the cold Arctic air to enter the USA and reach
southern areas. There are fewer storms over the Atlantic, and the east coast of North
America has a colder winter and precipitation in the form of snow. Snowstorms with
subfreezing conditions occur in higher frequency over the USA. Characteristics of
the negative NOA index include colder temperatures over northern Europe, while
the Mediterranean experiences more moisture and milder winters. Fewer and weaker
storms are crossing over the Atlantic in the west to east direction. The winter along
the East Coast of the USA has more cold air outbreaks, as well as snowy weather
conditions.

1.3.5 Other Major Oscillations

A number of other high- and low-frequency oscillations influence hydroclimatic

variables in different regions of the world. These oscillations include Arctic Oscil-
lation (AO), Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific North American (PNA)
8 R.S.V. Teegavarapu

pattern, and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IOD, referred to as the Indian Niño,
is an irregular oscillation of sea surface temperatures with cool and warm phases.
Exhaustive discussion about these oscillations is available elsewhere (Cronin 2009;
Teegavarapu 2013; Rosenzweig and Hillel 2008).

1.4 Regional and Global Influences of Oscillations

Regional and global influences of oscillations on ECVs are documented by several

studies (Cronin 2009; Teegavarapu 2013). AMO, ENSO, PDO, and NAO have
influences on precipitation and temperature characteristics of the USA. The effects
of PDO can be felt during winter and spring, between November and March across
the USA. When PDO is in a warm phase, higher temperatures are observed across
the Northwestern USA, while southeast America experiences cool temperatures.
PDO is dependent upon the ENSO, because it showed more decadal variability in
response to ENSO (Newman et al. 2003). The results of this study also showed
that the oscillation has a strongest effect on SST across the northern part of the
pacific during winter and spring. Previously it was believed that the PDO has greater
effect on the same geographical area during summer (Zhang et al. 1996). Zhang
studied the inter-annual variability of SST and SLP and the Southern Oscillation
Index time series. Based upon historical data, a change in the temporal variability
was observed and analyzed with several techniques. This variation showed a trend
that was inter-annual and consistent with an ENSO-like oscillation. In addition,
a linearly independent decadal variability was also observed. This inter-decadal
variability has similar properties like the ENSO, except it shows effects over the
North Pacific and not confined to the equatorial area. A shift was observed in the
data, around 1977, which is consistent with the phase change of PDO from cool to
warm. Hurrell and Van Loon in their research paper published in 1995 studied the
changes in distribution of precipitation and surface temperature over the Northern
Hemisphere, more specifically the North Atlantic. These changes can be correlated
with the current phase of NAO. Data about the oscillation is available for the past
150 years. When analyzing the data and the changes occurring, it was established
that NAO has been in the positive phase since the 1980s. It was concluded that the
precipitation anomalies of the same period can be correlated with the warm NAO
phase. Anomalies include changes in temperature and precipitation. Wintertime
warming over Europe and wintertime cooling of the northwest Atlantic have been
recorded. Northern Europe has experienced winters wetter than usual, while winters
are dryer in southern Europe. It was also concluded that as a result of the current
positive phase of NAO, the storm tracks over the Atlantic have experienced a
northward shift (Hurrell and Van Loon 1995). Teleconnections can be analyzed
using several different parameters. Wallace and Gutzler (1980) used sea level
pressure and geopotential height to find evidence of oscillation patterns of at least
1 Climate Variability and Changes in Precipitation Extremes and Characteristics 9

a month, on the Northern Hemisphere. Correlation statistics were used to find the
strongest teleconnections. After the analysis, it was concluded that the NAO and the
Pacific/North Oscillation have strong presence. Also, there is a correlation between
the Atlantic Jet Stream and the NAO (Wallace and Gutzler 1980). The IOD is known
to have an opposing effect or neutralizing effect on the influences of El Niño on
the Indian subcontinent that reduces monsoon precipitation amounts. El Niño is
linked with wetter conditions in the southeastern USA, a few regions in South
America and Northern Africa during the months of December–February. Also,
dry conditions are known to exist in several regions of Asia including India and
wet conditions in the Northwestern USA and southwestern part of South America
during the months of June–August. La Niña is associated with wet conditions in few
regions of the USA and drier conditions in the southeastern USA during the months
of December–February. Parts of India and Asia experience wet conditions during
June–August months associated with La Niña. AMO influences on precipitation
with increases in extremes during warm phase in several regions of the southeastern
USA are documented by Teegaravapu et al. (2013) and Goly and Teegavarapu
(2014). Increased hurricane landfalls were also noted during warm phase of AMO.
The temporal windows associated with cool and warm phases of ENSO and AMO
are provided in Table 1.1. Similarly, the temporal windows associated with cool and
warm phases of PDO and NAO are provided in Table 1.2. In many regions limited
information about temporal variations in influences of oscillations are available, and
spatial extent is not clearly defined.

Table 1.1 Years identified as cool and warm episodes for AMO and ENSO (1950–2010)
AMO ENSOa
Cool (La Niña) 1970–1994 1950, 1954, 1955, 1964, 1967, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975,
1983, 1984, 1988, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2007, 2008
Warm (El Niño) 1950–1969, 1951, 1953, 1957, 1958, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1969, 1972, 1976,
1995–2010 1977, 1982, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006,
2009
Neutral – 1952, 1956, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1966, 1978, 1979, 1980,
1981, 1985, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1993, 1996, 2001, 2003
Source: Goly and Teegavarapu (2014), adopted with permission
a
Denotes for the current year–subsequent year, for example, 1950–1951 is represented by 1950.

Table 1.2 Years identified as PDO NAO

cool and warm episodes for
AMO and ENSO Cool 1900–1925 1952–1972, 1977–1980
(1900–2010) 1946–1976
2000–2010
Warm 1926–1945 1950–1951, 1973–1976, 1981–2001
1977–1999
Source: Pierce (2013)
10 R.S.V. Teegavarapu

1.5 Evaluation of Changes in Precipitation Extremes

and Characteristics

Evaluation of precipitation characteristics and extremes will involve a number of

steps ranging from data collection to development of inferences about the influences
of climate variability using statistical tests. The following steps are recommended
for analysis of precipitation data:
• Collect and evaluate the precipitation data for different temporal and spatial
scales.
• Assess missing data lengths, nonhomogeneity issues, and erroneous data.
• Fill missing data using appropriate spatial or temporal interpolation methods
using available data from single- or multisensor precipitation estimates.
• Check the homogeneity of data after any infilling and note change points (if any)
in the time series.
• Apply corrections to estimates (i.e., infilled data) and reevaluate the homogeneity
of the time series.
• Identify temporal windows for climate variability analysis.
• Identify a list of indices that can characterize the changes in the variables (or time
series of variables).
• Identify and select statistical methods for analysis of these indices: examples of
these include statistical inference tests (parametric and nonparametric).
• Identify, select, and execute parametric and nonparametric trend tests if trend
evaluation is required.
• Report statistically significant results from inference and trend analysis tests.
• Assess the spatial and temporal influences of climate variability on precipitation.
• Understand and document potential implications associated with the influences
(noted in the previous step) of climate variability on hydrologic design, water
resources management.
Spatial and temporal changes and trends in precipitation extremes and charac-
teristics due to climate variability can be evaluated using a number of indices.
These indices reflect different characteristics of precipitation time series, and
they include (1) inter- and intra-annual variations, (2) seasonality, (3) spatial and
temporal variability of extremes, (4) nature of extremes (based on events related
to the type of storm: convective, frontal), (5) transition states as defined by
rain or no-rain dichotomous events, (6) temporal persistence as defined by serial
autocorrelation, (7) intra-event temporal distribution of precipitation, (8) antecedent
moisture conditions (AMC) preceding extreme events, (9) temporal occurrences of
extremes, (10) number of extremes over a specific threshold, (11) inter-event time
definition (IETD) (based events), and (12) individual and coupled influences of
internal modes of climate variability. One major question that needs to be answered
related to precipitation extremes and characteristics is: How does the inter-annual,
decadal, and multidecadal climate variability affect the occurrence of precipitation
extremes relating to magnitude and frequency?
1 Climate Variability and Changes in Precipitation Extremes and Characteristics 11

1.5.1 Extreme Precipitation Indices

Indices for precipitation extremes defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change
Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) (WMO 2009) can be computed at each site to
gain a clear understanding of changes in precipitation extremes during different
phases. A total of 27 indices were developed by ETCCDI (WMO 2009) to
describe particular characteristics of extremes, including frequency, amplitude, and
persistence for temperature and precipitation. Nine extreme precipitation indices as
defined by ETCCDI in Table 1.2 are explained in this section. The indices RX1day
and RX5day refer to the maximum one-day and five-day precipitation in a given
time period. The indices R10mm, R20mm, and Rnnmm are used to calculate the
number of times a given value of threshold (viz., 10 mm, 20 mm, and “nn” mm)
(WMO 2009) is exceeded. A threshold value of 25.4 mm is considered for “nn” in
this study. Simple daily intensity index (SDII) and total precipitation in wet days
(PRCPTOT) refer to average and total precipitation amounts of all wet days in a
given time period, respectively. The time period used for the analysis can vary from
a season to year. Consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD)
indices provide the largest number of consecutive dry and wet days in a given time
period, respectively. Precipitation depth greater than or equal (less than) to 1 mm
is used to categorize wet (dry) days in the calculation of SDII, PRCPTOT, CDD,
and CWD indices. A few indices described in Table 1.3 require serially continuous
(i.e., gap-free) precipitation datasets. Some of the indices can also be obtained from
data with gaps (i.e., missing records), and they include RX1day, RX5day, CDD,
and CWD. However, the indices may be underestimated due to the infilling process.
Two recent studies (Goly and Teegavarapu 2014 and Teegaravapu et al. 2013) have
documented the changes in several extreme precipitation indices in two phases of
AMO and ENSO in the state of Florida, USA.

Table 1.3 Extreme precipitation indices and their explanation (WMO 2009)
Index Description
RX1day Maximum 1-day precipitation
RX5day Maximum 5-day precipitation
SDII Simple daily intensity index
R10mm Count of precipitation days with DR greater than 10 mm
R20mm Count of precipitation days with DR greater than 20 mm
Rnnmm Count of days where DR greater than a threshold value
CDD Consecutive dry days (DR < 1 mm)
CWD Consecutive wet days (DR 1 mm)
R95pTOT Total precipitation due to wet days (>95th percentile)
R99pTOT Total precipitation due to extremely wet days (>99 percentile)
PRCPTOT Total precipitation in wet days (DR >1 mm)
DR: Daily Rainfall
12 R.S.V. Teegavarapu

1.5.2 Drought Characterization

1.5.2.1 Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)

Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) (WMO 2012), an internationally recognized

index, developed by McKee et al. (1993, 1995), is useful to evaluate dry and wet
conditions. It is generally used for drought monitoring; however, it is also very
effective in analyzing wet periods. The only input for this conceptually simple
index is the precipitation, requiring monthly data without gaps, with a minimum
length of 20 to 30 years, but optimally a longer period, 50 or 60 years or more
is recommended. The confidence level of the analysis and the length of the data
are positively correlated. The length of water deficit or abundance due to drought
and heavy precipitation can have different effects on soil moisture, streamflow,
or groundwater supply on different timescales. SPI can be calculated for different
intervals, to capture and analyze the effects, based on the point of interest. Standard
Precipitation Index (SPI) calculation involves fitting a probability distribution
(typically a gamma distribution) to 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month precipitation totals and
then use of standard normal distribution to obtain SPI values. Probability density
function of gamma distribution in standard form is given in Eq. (1.1). The variable
˛ is the shape parameter. SPI values can be used to define dry and wet conditions as
explained in Table 1.4.

1 ˛1 x
f .x/ D x e ; x0 (1.1)
 .˛/

An example of SPI calculation based on monthly precipitation observations at a

rain gauge site (site name, Wakkanai and location; latitude, 45.4025000; longitude,
141.6686111) in Japan is provided in Fig. 1.2. A total of 78 years of monthly data
is used for developing 3-month SPI. Teegavarapu (2016) has evaluated the changes
in SPI for 155 sites in Japan and indicted more drought occurrences in ENSO warm
phase (El Niño). Goly and Teegavarapu (2014) observed an opposite effect of ENSO
in their study of drought occurrences in Florida.

Table 1.4 Identification of SPI Value Dry or Wet Condition

dry or wet conditions based
on SPI 2.0 and greater Extremely wet
1.99 to 1.50 Very wet
1.49 to 1.00 Moderately wet
0.99 to 0.99 Near normal
1.0 to 1.49 Moderately dry
1.50 to 1.99 Severely dry
2 and less Extremely dry
1 Climate Variability and Changes in Precipitation Extremes and Characteristics 13

Fig. 1.2 Calculation of a 3-month SPI for a rain gauge site in Japan

1.6 Precipitation Characteristics

Changes in precipitation characteristics based on available historical data can be

evaluated for influences of oscillations using a number of indices. These indices are
discussed in the following sections.

1.6.1 Inter-year and Intra-year Variations

Precipitation characteristics that vary within a year as well as over several years
can be evaluated for influences of climate variability. Within year variations can
be assessed at different temporal scales ranging from sub-hourly time intervals to
seasons.

1.6.2 Storm Events Based on Inter-event Time

Definition (IETD)

Rainfall time series can be considered as a series of rainfall pulses through time.
Isolation of individual storm event from such a long record of p requires application
of specific criteria to determine when an event begins and ends. One such criterion
is inter-event time definition (IETD): Minimum temporal spacing without rainfall
required to consider two rainfalls as belonging to different events, used for the
statistical analysis of rainfall records. The concepts of IETD are illustrated in
Figs. 1.3 and 1.4. If the period between pulses of rainfall is less than or equal to
IETD, then the two pulses of rainfall are categorized as belonging to one event.
14 R.S.V. Teegavarapu

Fig. 1.3 Two storm events

separated by a time interval

Fig. 1.4 Two storm events separated by a time interval

IETD can be equal to lag –time when autocorrelation is equal to zero. The inter-
event time definition (IETD) is defined as the minimum temporal spacing without
rainfall required to consider two rainfall events as belonging to different events
(Adams and Papa 2000).
Two rainfall events are considered as distinct events if:
1. The precipitation (P) that falls during a time interval between the events is less
than a specific threshold value.
2. The time interval (t) is greater than a selected time interval (e.g., time of
concentration).
1 Climate Variability and Changes in Precipitation Extremes and Characteristics 15

The use of design storms based on IDF curves for stormwater management was
evaluated by Adams and Howard (1986). The analytical probabilistic models for
stormwater management models prescribed by Adams and Papa (2000) describe
the need for identification of individual storms using inter-event time definition.
Rainfall volumes, durations, intensities, and inter-event times can be characterized
using exponential or gamma distributions (Behera et al. 2010) for use in analytical
probabilistic models. The statistics of storm event characteristics are influenced by
the values of IETD, and these can be analyzed in the context of climate variability
and change. Pierce (2013) has documented changes in IETD of storms for AMO,
PDO, and NAO in Florida, USA.

1.6.3 Wet and Dry Spells

Determining wet and dry spells can provide further information about the precipita-
tion characteristics. Mean or total monthly rainfall values will give indication about
how wet or dry the month was; however, determining the distribution of the rainfall
can be essential when managing watersheds and flood or drought conditions. The
conditions in the watershed will vary based on the distribution of the total rainfall
over any interval. Precipitation threshold values can be established for evaluation
of dry and wet thresholds; in general, a zero value of precipitation is ideal for
consideration. Once the threshold is established, consecutive wet and dry days can
be estimated as wet and dry spells, respectively. The length of each wet and dry
spell can be used to calculate the mean length of wet and dry spell individually. The
lengths of spells considering a threshold level are representative of regional rainfall
patterns and can be evaluated for changes. The number of wet or dry spells that is
equal or longer than a prefixed threshold value can be evaluated in different temporal
windows that coincide with different phases of oscillations.

1.6.4 Transitions of Wet and Dry States

Transition probabilities associated with dry and wet spells are calculated based on
conditions specified in Table 1.5. These probabilities are referred to as two-state
first-order Markov chain probabilities.

Table 1.5 Rain or no-rain states in two consecutive time intervals for determination of transition
probabilities
Time interval (iC1)
Time Ri > 0 RiC1 > 0 [Wet–Wet] RiC1 D 0 [Wet–Dry]
Interval (i) Ri D 0 RiC1 > 0 [Dry–Wet] RiC1 D 0 [Dry–Dry]
16 R.S.V. Teegavarapu

Two-state first-order Markov chain probabilities are given in Eqs. (1.2), (1.3),
(1.4), and (1.5):

P11 D Pr . RiC1 > 0 j Ri > 0/ (1.2)

The variable P11 refers to probability of occurrence of positive precipitation in

time interval i C 1 given the occurrence of positive precipitation in the previous
interval, i:

P10 D Pr . RiC1 D 0 j Ri > 0/ (1.3)

The variable P10 refers to probability of no precipitation in time interval i C 1

given the occurrence of positive precipitation in the previous interval, i:

P01 D Pr . RiC1 > 0 j Ri D 0/ (1.4)

The variable P01 refers to probability of occurrence of precipitation in time

interval i C 1 given no precipitation in the previous interval, i:

P00 D Pr . RiC1 D 0 j Ri D 0/ (1.5)

The variable P00 refers to probability of no precipitation in time interval i C 1

given no precipitation in the previous interval, i:

1.6.5 Persistence

Precipitation data can be assessed for serial autocorrelation using the time series
at different temporal resolutions. The autocorrelation coefficient is also referred to
as serial correlation coefficient. The first-order autocorrelation coefficient can be
referred to as correlation coefficient of the first N-1 observations (observations),
1 : : : : : : N1 , and the next N-1 observations, 2 : : : : : : N . These two series are
used for calculations of average values, and they are referred to as  .1/ and  .2/ ,
respectively. The autocorrelation values can be obtained for different lag (t) values
as given in Eq. (1.6):
PNt    
iD1 i   .1/ iCt   .2/
t D r 2 rP  (1.6)
PNt  N
2
iD1 i   .1/ iD2  i   .2/

For sufficiently large N, the autocorrelation at a specific lag can be defined by

Eq. (1.7).
1 Climate Variability and Changes in Precipitation Extremes and Characteristics 17

PNt   
iD1  i   iCt  
t D (1.7)
PNt  2
iD1 i  

The variable  is the mean (average) of the entire available time series data.
Autocorrelograms can be evaluated for two-sample datasets from two time periods
that coincide with the temporal windows of the oscillation. Spatial variations in lag-
1 autocorrelation values in Japan were noted in different phases of ENSO and PDO
in a recent study reported by Teegavarapu (2016).

1.6.6 Seasonality

The seasonality index (SI) defined by Walsh and Lawler (1981) can be used to
determine the intra-annual monthly distribution of precipitation. The SI can also
be used for spatial representation of seasonal variability over regions, providing a
better understanding of rainfall regimes. The SI, as given in Eq. (1.8), is the sum
of the absolute deviations of the monthly rainfall from the mean monthly rainfall,
divided by the total annual precipitation of the given year:

nD12 ˇ ˇ
1 X ˇˇ Ri ˇˇ
SI i D x  (1.8)
Ri nD1 ˇ 12 ˇ
i;n

where Ri is the total annual precipitation in a particular year and xi;n is the actual
monthly rainfall in month n. The SI in Eq. (1.2) yields yearly indices, which can
be qualified based on the established index values, to determine the degree of
seasonality, shown in Table 1.6. Teegavarapu (2016) and Pierce (2013) evaluated
seasonality index values for Japan and Florida, respectively, and concluded that
warm and cool phases of PDO have strong influences on the spatial variability of
seasonality of precipitation.

Table 1.6 Classification of seasonality index values and links to precipitation regimes (Walsh and
Lawler 1981)
Seasonality index Precipitation regime
<0.19 Precipitation spread throughout the year
0.20–0.39 Precipitation spread throughout the year, but with a definite wetter season
0.40–0.59 Rather seasonal with a short drier season
0.60–0.79 Seasonal
0.80–0.99 Marked seasonal with a long dry season
1.00–1.19 Most precipitation in <3 months
>1.20 Extreme seasonality, with almost all precipitation in 1–2 months
18 R.S.V. Teegavarapu

1.6.7 Changes to Extremes of Specific Duration and Frequency

Changes to extreme values of precipitation for different temporal durations in differ-

ent phases of oscillations can be evaluated by developing depth–duration–frequency
(DDF) or intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Data for two different temporal
windows that coincide with the phases of oscillations can be used to fit probability
distribution functions (PDFs) to characterize the precipitation extremes of different
durations. Svensson and Jones (2010) in a recent survey of evaluation of rainfall
frequency distributions have indicated that generalized extreme value (GEV) dis-
tribution is most frequently used to characterize rainfall extremes. Besides GEV,
lognormal, three-parameter lognormal, and Pearson and log-Pearson distributions
should also be evaluated for characterizing extreme precipitation data. Goodness-
of-fit (GOF) hypothesis tests and performance measures such as mean absolute
deviation (MAD) and mean square deviation (MSD) (Jain and Singh 1987) can
be used to measure the relative goodness-of-fits of distributions to the data. GEV
with a flexible three-parameter model expressed by a probability density function
(PDF) given in Eq. (1.9) (Teegaravapu et al. 2013) is generally used to characterize
precipitation extremes.
8  1
 1
< 1
exp .1 C ko zo / ko .1 C ko zo /1 ko ko ¤ 0

f .x/ D (1.9)
: 1

exp .zo  exp .zo // ko D 0

The variables ko ,  , and  refer to the shape, scale, and location parameters,
respectively, and the value of zo D .x  / = . The parameters of the distribution
can be estimated using maximum log-likelihood estimation (MLE) method or L-
moment method. The maximum precipitation depth for each time interval is related
with the corresponding return period from the cumulative distribution function
(CDF). The maximum precipitation depth can be determined using a theoretical
distribution function that is used to characterize the distribution of precipitation
extremes.

1.6.7.1 Changing Intensity–Duration–Frequency Relationships

An example of DDF curves developed for four regions in the state of Florida, USA,
in a recent study by Teegaravapu et al. (2013) using GEV is shown in Fig. 1.5.
Precipitation extremes obtained from DDF curves developed for a specific return
period indicate that the selection of temporal window coinciding with a specific
phase of AMO is critical for hydrologic design. Regional differences in extreme
precipitation depths based on DDF curves during different AMO phases are evident.
Underestimation of design storms is possible when entire available historical data is
used compared to the data obtained from one AMO phase alone.
1 Climate Variability and Changes in Precipitation Extremes and Characteristics 19

Fig. 1.5 Precipitation depth–duration–frequency curves for a 25-year return period during AMO
warm, cool, and combined phases (cool and warm) for different stations: (a) North Florida, (b)
Key West, (c) Palm Beach, and (d) Lake Okeechobee (Adopted from Teegaravapu et al. 2013)

1.6.8 Variations in Temporal Occurrences of Extremes

Changes in intra-year temporal occurrences of extremes caused due to climate

variability of change have wide range of implications on water resources manage-
ment. An example of such variations in occurrences is shown in Fig. 1.6 based on
results from evaluation of precipitation extremes in two phases of AMO. Kernel
density estimates (KDEs) using Gaussian kernels showing temporal occurrences
of precipitation extremes for different durations are shown. It is evident from the
figure that higher densities are seen in cool phase during earlier months of the year
compared to those in warm phase. This suggests that flood realization potential is
higher in earlier months of the year in the cool phase, and this requires adequate
planning and preparation for any flood control management. In general, it has been
noticed that precipitation extremes with higher magnitudes are occurring in AMO
warm phase than in cool phase especially at durations higher than 24 h.
20 R.S.V. Teegavarapu

Fig. 1.6 Kernel density estimates of occurrences of precipitation extremes during AMO phases for
nine temporal durations for cool (1970–1994) and warm (1942–1969) phases of AMO (Adapted
from Teegavarapu et al. 2013)

1.6.9 Temporal Distributions of In-Storm Precipitation

Temporal distribution defines the time distribution of rainfall amounts within a

storm event. Synthetic rainfall distributions are commonly used for hydrologic
design in many regions of the world. For example, the Soil Conservation Service
(SCS) of the USA provides four types of curves referred to as types I, IA, II,
and III that are applicable to different regions of the USA. The time distribution
will provide information about early, central, and late peaking storms. Changes
in temporal distribution of in-storm precipitation totals are noted for different
storm events in Florida by Goly and Teegavarapu (2014). Late peaking storms
are known to increase flood peaks and are of concern for disaster management
agencies.

1.6.10 Antecedent Moisture Conditions (AMC)

Antecedent moisture conditions preceding extreme precipitation events of specific

temporal duration can be evaluated for changes in two different phases of oscilla-
tions. Higher AMCs will lead to larger peak runoff volumes and discharges based on
1 Climate Variability and Changes in Precipitation Extremes and Characteristics 21

Fig. 1.7 Non-exceedance

probability curves for AMO
cool and warm phases 5-day
antecedent precipitation
amounts (Adapted from Goly
and Teegavarapu 2014)

extreme precipitation events, and these runoff discharges may sometimes exceed the
design discharges that were used for hydrologic/hydraulic infrastructure. In a recent
study, Goly and Teegavarapu (2014) have investigated the variations in AMC for
multidecadal (e.g., AMO) and inter-year oscillations (e.g., ENSO). Figure 1.7 shows
the non-exceedance plots of a 5-day antecedent precipitation amounts for AMO cool
and warm phases. Higher exceedance probabilities can be noted for warm phase.
Similar conditions of AMC for ENSO influences on precipitation patterns in Japan
were noted in a recent study (Teegavarapu 2016). Hydrologic design discharges
need to be reevaluated considering the influences of climate variability on extreme
precipitation events.

1.7 Evaluations of Precipitation Variability Influenced

by Teleconnections

1.7.1 Precipitation Data

Precipitation data at different temporal and spatial resolutions can be used for
evaluation of influences of climate variability on extremes and characteristics.
Serially continuous (data without gaps) and error-free and chronologically complete
precipitation dataset is needed for evaluation of some of the indices discussed earlier
in this chapter. Monthly data can be used for a handful of indices (i.e., seasonality,
standard precipitation index). Daily data and data at finer temporal resolutions
can be evaluated for short duration precipitation extremes and characteristics
(Teegaravapu et al. 2013) including transition probabilities and autocorrelation.
22 R.S.V. Teegavarapu

1.7.2 Homogeneity Analysis and Tests

Precipitation data are initially evaluated for serial continuity, outliers, and homo-
geneity. Exploratory data analysis techniques (mostly graphical) can be used in
the first step of preliminary assessment of data. Homogeneity evaluation can be
carried out using Buishand’s (Buishand 1982) or Alexandersson’s standard normal
homogeneity test (SNHT) (Alexandersson 1986) or von Neumann ratio test (Von
Neumann 1941). Randomness of time series values can be tested with the help of
runs test (Wald–Wolfowitz test) for use in statistical hypothesis tests.

1.7.3 Point Precipitation Data

Point-based precipitation data refers to observed data collected using a recording

or a non-recording gauge. Gauge measurements are influenced by random and
systematic errors and several others including gauge catch. In many instances
extreme precipitation events are not recorded by gauges. Radar-based precipitation
datasets can be used for assessments, with an acknowledgment of limitation that
only comprehensive data from most recent decades are available. Infilling of precip-
itation datasets is required to obtain serially complete precipitation datasets in many
situations. These datasets are critical for calculation and evaluation of a number
of indices that are discussed earlier in this chapter. Some of those indices include
autocorrelation, transition probabilities, IETD calculations, etc. A number of deter-
ministic and stochastic interpolation methods that are available for estimation
of missing precipitation data are documented by Teegavarapu and Chandramouli
(2005). New methods based on improvised universal function approximation-
based kriging (Teegavarapu 2007), association rule mining (Teegavarapu 2009),
mathematical programming (Teegavarapu 2012), nearest neighbor, and clustering
(Teegavarapu 2013) approaches are available for infilling missing data. Corrections
to spatially interpolated data are recommended. These corrections may involve the
use of single-best estimator methods (Teegavarapu 2009) or quantile-based methods
(Teegavarapu 2014).

1.7.4 Gridded Precipitation Data

Gridded precipitation data based on spatially interpolated estimations from point

observations from single-sensor (i.e., rain gauge) or multisensor estimates are
widely available for spatial evaluation of precipitation. It is important to note that
using such data may result in underestimation of higher-end extremes and overes-
timation of lower-end extremes. Goly and Teegavarapu (2014) indicate that both
point and spatially complete gridded precipitation datasets are valuable for analysis.
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 FUKUSA

The stores of fukusas seemed inexhaustible a few years ago, and

I can remember days of delight in that ill-smelling old corner of
Awata, when one out of every five fukusa was a treasure, while now
there are hardly five good ones in a hundred of those needle
pictures. The finest work was lavished on these squares of satin or
crape, which former etiquette demanded to have laid over the boxes
containing gifts or notes, both box and fukusa to be duly admired
and returned to the sender. These ceremonial cloths were part of the
trousseau of every bride of high degree, and old families possess
them by scores. The nicest etiquette ordered the choice of the
fukusa, and the season, the gift, the giver, and the receiver were
considered in selecting the particular wrapping. The greatest artists
have made designs for them, and a few celebrated ones, bearing
Hokusai’s signature, are owned by European collectors. The crests
of the feudal families become familiar to one from their constant
repetition on fukusas. Numberless Japanese legends, and symbols
as well, constantly reappear, and no two are ever exactly alike in
design or execution, however often one may see the same subject
treated. Equally popular are all the symbols of long life—the pine, the
plum, the bamboo; the tortoise with the fringed shell that lives for a
thousand years; the peach that took a thousand years to ripen; the
stork, the old man and woman under the pine-tree hailing the rising
sun—and all, when wrapping a gift, equally convey a delicately
expressed wish for length of days. The fierce old saints and
disciples, who with their dragons and tigers live on old Satsuma
surfaces, keep company with the sages who rode through the air on
storks, tortoises, or carp, or stand unrolling sacred scrolls beneath
bamboo groves. And the Seven Household Gods of Luck, the
blessed Shichi Fukujin, are on the fukusa as well. There smile
Daikoku, the god of riches, upon his rice-bags, hammer and purse in
hand; Ebisu, the god of plenty, with his little red fish; Jurojin, the
serene old god of longevity, with his mitred cap, white beard, staff,
and deer; high-browed Fukurokujin, lord of popularity and wisdom;
Hotei, spirit of goodness and kindness, sack on back, fan in hand,
and children climbing and tumbling over him; black-faced Bishamon,
god of war and force, holding his lance and miniature pagoda; and
Benten Sama, goddess of grace and beauty, playing the lute.
Takara Buné, the good-luck ship, the New-year’s junk, with dragon
beak and silken sail, bearing rich gifts from the unknown land, is
another favorite subject. To sleep with takara buné’s image under
one’s wooden pillow on New-year’s night insures good-luck and
good dreams for the rest of the year. Quite as significant are the
takara mono, the ancient and classic good-luck symbols, which are
the hat, hammer, key, straw coat, bag or purse, sacred gem or pearl,
the scrolls, the clove, the shippo, or seven precious things, and the
weights. These emblems, introduced everywhere, fill flower-circles,
or the spaces and groundwork of geometrical designs, and are
always received with favor. The shojo, who have drunk saké until
their hair has turned red, the rats and the radish, the cock on the
temple drum, poems in superb lettering, all ornament the fukusa, and
there the mysterious manji, or hook-cross, and the mitsu tomoyé, or
three commas curved within a circle, are continually reproduced.
This manji is the Svastika, or Buddhist cross of India, which
appears in the frescos of the Pyramids and the Catacombs, in Greek
art, in Etruscan tombs, in the embroideries and missals of mediæval
Europe, in the Scandinavian design known as Thor’s hammer, in old
English heraldry, in the Chinese symbol called the “tablet of honor,”
and on innumerable temple ornaments.
Five of the old daimio families had the
manji as their crest, and it came to Japan
from China and India, along with the
Buddhist religion. On old armor, flags, and
war fans it is constantly found, and it is the
sign of life, of the four elements, of eternity;
the portent of good-luck, the talisman of
safety from evil spirits, and an amulet against
threats or harm from any of the four quarters;
while the word “manji” is derived from the Chinese word “mantse,”
meaning ten thousand.
The mitsu tomoyé is another universal
symbol of innumerable meanings. It occurs
on the crests of eight daimio families; on
temple drums, lanterns, the ends of tiles, and
on Daikoku’s mallet. It is variously said to
represent falling snow, leaping flames,
dashing water, and clouds; the thongs of a
warrior’s glove, uncurling fern-fronds, the
down of seed pods; the three great elements,
fire, air, and water, the origin of matter, the great principles of nature,
an oriental trinity. On house-tiles and ridge-poles it invokes
protection from the three evils—fire, thieves, and flood, and
everywhere these two mysterious symbols confront one.
Kioto abounds in curio-shops, ranging from the half-mile long row
on either side of the Manjiuji to the splendid accumulations and
choice art collections of Ikeda, Hayashi, Kiukioda, Takada, and the
bazaar at the foot of Maruyama. At Ikeda’s, which is really an art
museum filled with precious things, the processes of damascening
and lacquering may be watched. It has been proven of late that,
when patrons will pay a price to warrant the endless labor and care,
as good lacquer may be made to-day as formerly. Connoisseurs
admit that they are often deceived, and that they are able to tell the
quality only, and not the age, of any really choice piece. The new is
as indestructible as the old, if carefully made. A pin-point or a hot
coal leaves no mark, a year’s bath in sea-water no trace, and
amateur photographers have found it proof against the acids and
chemicals of developing fluids. Yet this substance, enduring as
crystal, is made by coat upon coat of an ill-smelling black varnish,
which, stirred in a tub with iron-filings, and set in the sun to thicken
and blacken, may be seen daily in the streets of any Japanese city.
New lacquer is so poisonous to many persons that the curious are
content to watch at a distance, while the workmen apply coat after
coat, set the article in a moistened box to dry slowly, and grinding
and polishing surface after surface, add those wonderful decorations
that result in a trifle light as air and precious as gold or gems.
The “incense-shop” is one of the choicest and most truly Japanese
of curio-shops. It looks, from the street, an every-day affair; but after
propitiating the attendants by a purchase of perfume, the inner
wealth is revealed in rooms filled with the choicest old wares. The
salesmen tempt the visitor with rare koros, or incense-burners, and,
in an elementary way, the master plays the daimio’s old game of the
Twenty Perfumes. He sprinkles on the hibachi’s glowing coals some
little black morsels in the shape of leaves, blossoms, or characters;
scattering green particles, brown particles, and grayish ones, and
showing the ignorant alien how to catch the ascending column of
pale-blue smoke in the bent hand, close the fingers upon it, and
convey it to the nose. You cannot tell which odor you prefer, nor
remember which dried particle gave forth a particular fragrance. The
nose is bewildered by the commingled wreaths and mixed cathedral
odors, and the master chuckles delightedly.
There are certain curio-shops of an even more exalted kind,
unknown to tourists, and reserved to Japanese connoisseurs and to
those few eminent foreign residents who, in taste and appreciation,
are Japanese. There, little tea-jars, ancient tea-bowls, and
ornaments for the ink-box delight those to the manner born, and
command great prices; and there one sees the precious iron pots of
Riobondo lifted from brocade bags, and ancient pieces of wrought
and inlaid bronze and iron, old helmets and swords, such as are to
be found nowhere else.
Tokio and Osaka rival the Kioto makers of the finer modern metal-
work, all three cities having been equal capitals and centres of
wealth and luxury in the feudal days, when the armorer was the
warrior’s right-hand. The descendants of the ancient metal-workers
of Kioto still labor at the old forges, and marvels of art, as well as of
patient labor, come from the various workshops of the town. Both old
and new designs are employed to beautify new combinations of
metals, but at the present day the metal-workers’ art expends itself
on trifling things. Instead of adorning armor and weapons and
fashioning their exquisite ornaments, the artists’ taste and skill must
be lavished on vases, placques, incense-burners, hibachis, water-
pots, and flower-stands, and the countless cheap trifles and
specimens of bijouterie made for exportation. In the coloring, cutting,
and inlaying of bronze the Japanese are unrivalled; but for the great
metal-work of the empire the student of native art must visit private
collections and the treasures of the great curio-shops.
Feudal life invested swords and armor with their high estate, and
gave the armorer his rank. The fine temper of the old blades has
long challenged European admiration, and the sword-guards, the
knife-handles, and the minute ornaments of the hilt are beyond
compare. Sentiment, legend, and poetry glorify the sword, and the
edict of 1871, which forbade their use as weapons, increased their
value as relics, and brought thousands of them into the curio market.
In rich and noble families they have always been treasured, but
collections of fine blades are found in other countries as well, and
the names of Muramasa and Masamuné and the Miochin family, are
as well known as that of Benvenuto Cellini to connoisseurs of metal-
work anywhere.
 In the earlier uncommercial times little distinction was recognized
in the comparative value of metals. Their fitness for the purpose
required, and the effectiveness of their tints and tones for carrying
out ornamental designs, were what the artist considered. One metal
was as easily wrought by him as another. Iron was like clay in his
competent hands, and he moulded, cut, and hammered as he willed,
using copper, gold, silver, iron, tin, zinc, lead, and antimony simply
as pigments, and combining them as a painter would his colors. The
well-known shibuichi, or mixed copper and silver, and shakudo or
mixed iron, copper, and gold, are only general names for the great
range of tints and tones, shading from tawniest-yellow to darkest-
brown and a purple-black, and from silver-white to the darkest
steely-gray. Silver and gold were inlaid with iron, the harder metal
upon the softer, and solid lumps of gold, silver, and lead are found
encrusted in bronze in a way to defy all known laws of the fusion of
metals. While good and even marvellous work is still done, the old
spirit is gone, and the objects of to-day seem almost unworthy the art
lavished on them.
The magic mirror is still manufactured in Kioto, and although the
tourist is often assured that it does not exist, innumerable specimens
prove that the face of a common polished steel mirror, of good
quality, will reflect the same design as that raised in relief on its back.
With small mirrors ten inches in diameter, as with the largest, in their
elaborate lacquered cases, one may throw, with a ray of sunlight, a
clear-cut image on wall or ceiling. The pressure of the uneven
surface at the back, the varying density of the metal, and the effect
of polishing, all combine to give this curious attribute to these
kagami, which are gradually giving place to foreign glass and
quicksilver.
 CHAPTER XXVIII
POTTERIES AND PAPER WARES

The porcelains of Kiomidzu, renowned as they are throughout

Japan, figure lightly in the export trade lists, as compared to the
immense shipments of decorated faience from the Awata district, for
which there is such demand in foreign countries. On the main street
of that quarter, which is the beginning of the Tokaido, the larger
establishments cluster near together, and Kinkozan, Tanzan, and
Taizan attract one in turn. Latticed walls and plain gate-ways admit
visitors to a succession of show-rooms, where they may wander and
look. As it is the characteristic Japanese custom to consider every
foreigner as a mere sight-seer, who puts tradesmen to trouble for
nothing, the bushy-headed young men in their clean, cool cotton
gowns make no effort to sell until he purchases something. Then he
is led through further rooms to godowns or upper chambers, and
their more desirable wares are displayed.
Kinkozan’s specialty is the manufacture of the fine, cream-colored
faience with a crackled glaze, which, when decorated in one way, is
known as Kioto or Awata ware, and when covered with a blaze of
color and gilding is the gaudily gorgeous, modern, or Kioto Satsuma,
exported by ship-loads to America, where its crude hues and cheap
effects are enjoyed. No cultivated Japanese, however, would ever
give these monstrosities a place in his own home. In America these
garish six-months-old vases and koros are even passed off as old
Satsuma, to which softly-toned and simply-decorated ware it is no
more like than is a Henri Deux tazza to a Limoges garden-stool.
Kinkozan turns out also a coarse shippoyaki, or cloisonné enamel,
some on faience and some on copper ground; and the blue-and-
white-gowned young man will lead one past garden and godown,
and show one every stage and process of the manufacture of the
different wares. The potters sit in little open alcoves of rooms, each
with his low wheel and heap of clay before him. One old man sits
with his feet doubled up before him, his right foot locked fast in the
bend of the left knee, and the left foot laid sole upward on the right
thigh, in the impossible attitude of so many Buddhas. This position
he maintains with comfort for hours, and this lean, bald-headed, old
man, wearing nothing but a loin-cloth and a pair of huge, round,
owlish spectacles, is as interesting as his work. He puts a handful of
wet gray clay on the wheel before him, making it revolve with a
dexterous touch of the hand, while he works the lump of clay into a
thick, broad bowl. With his fingers and a few little sticks he soon
stretches the bowl upward, narrows it for a neck, broadens and
flattens it a little at the top, and presently lifts off a graceful vase and
sets it on a board with a row of others. In another place the workmen
are grinding and working the clay; in another, preparing the glaze
and applying it, and near them are the kilns in every stage. In a
further garden the decorators are at work, each with his box of
brushes and colors beside him, the vase being kept in half-horizontal
position before him by a wooden rest. Each piece goes from one
man to another, beginning with the one who sketches the designs in
faint outline, thence passing to him who does the faces, to a third
who applies the red, to a fourth who touches in the diaper-work and
traceries, and so on to the man who liberally bestows the gilding.
Lastly, two women slowly burnish the gold by rubbing it over with wet
agates or carnelian.
At the other houses faience, in an infinity of new and strange
designs and extraordinary colors is seen, each less and less
Japanese. All these Awata potters work almost entirely for the
foreign market, and their novelties are not disclosed to the visitor, nor
sold in Japan, until they have had their vogue in the New York and
London markets. From those foreign centres come instructions as to
shapes, colors, and designs likely to prove popular for another
season, and the ceramic artists abjectly follow these foreign models.
All this helps to confuse a stranger; for, though the wares are named
for the districts, towns, and provinces of their supposed nativity, he
finds them made everywhere else—Satsuma, in three or four places
outside of Satsuma; the Kaga of commerce, almost anywhere except
in Kaga; while undecorated porcelain is brought from France by ship-
loads to be decorated and sent out again, and everywhere the
debasing effect of imitation and of this yielding to foreign dictates
appears.
Cart-loads, car-loads, and ship-loads of screens go from the great
ports to foreign countries, and in Kioto the larger proportion of these
are manufactured. Whether byobu, the screen, is a purely Japanese
invention, or a variation of the hinged door easily suggested to any
primitive people who can watch Nature’s many trap-doors and
hinges, this people certainly makes most persistent use of it. Twenty
different kinds may be seen in one’s daily rides past the little open
houses, but never does one discover the abominations in coarse
gold thread on black satin grounds so common in our country and so
highly esteemed. The four-fold or six-fold screen of a Japanese
house has its plain silk, paper, or gold-leaf surface, covered with one
large design or picture extending over the whole surface, instead of
the narrow panels and patches of separate pictures which Western
taste demands. In great establishments and monasteries there is a
tsui taté, or flat, solid screen of a single panel, within the main door-
way or vestibule—a survival of a Chinese fashion, intended less to
baffle inquisitive eyes than to keep out evil spirits and beasts.
Peculiar to Kioto are screens on which phosphorescent paint is
used. A favorite design for these is the rice field at dusk, starred with
flickering fire-flies, whose lights glow the more as the room darkens.
A half century ago Gioksen, the artist, achieved great fame with
these phosphorescent fire-flies; and recently the idea has been
revived, with a fine promise of being vulgarized, growing coarser and
cheaper in execution and poorer in quality, to meet the demands of
the barbarian markets of the Occident. In the New-year week, when
each family brings out its choicest screens, the display in the best
streets is an art exhibition.
Screens of all sorts are more important in summer life than
clothing, and, of necessity, are greatly relied on in the absence of
garments. Screens with tiny windows in them shelter the undressed
citizen and give him glimpses of the road, and screens with a variety
of shelves and hooks bring a whole kitchen to the side of the hibachi
on a windy day. Among summer screens, the commonest is the
sudare, or curtain of reeds or tiny bamboo joints strung on threads.
The waving of these strings and their tinkling sound are supposed to
suggest the freshness of the stirring breeze, and the Japanese
imagination transforms the bits of crystal, strung here and there, into
cool rain-drops slipping down the bamboo stems. The taste of the
foreign buyer has vulgarized the sudare, which is often a nightmare
of crude design and worse color, weighted with glass beads of every
color, and even made entirely of beads. The sudare in the streets of
a Japanese town is almost as surely a sign of a shop where shaved
ice and cooling drinks may be had, as is our striped pole of the
Occidental barber’s premises.
Kioto fans are celebrated, but they are no better now than those of
other cities, and prettier Japanese fans are sold in New York for less
money than in Japan, because the enormous foreign demand keeps
the best fan-painters and fan-makers of Kioto constantly employed
on export orders. American importers send their buyers to Kioto and
Osaka every spring to order fans for the following year. Designer and
maker submit hundreds of models, and the buyer offers suggestions
as to color and shapes. The men who execute these large orders
seldom have an open shop or sales-room, and their places are
known only to the trade. Thousands and hundreds of thousands of
ogi, or folding fans, go annually from the port of Hiogo-Kobé to
America, and as many more from Yokohama; while of the flat fans
with handles, the uchiwa, the number is even greater. One American
railroad company has for years taken a hundred thousand uchiwa
each season for advertising purposes, one side being left plain, to be
printed upon after they reach the United States.
The fan is the most ancient and important utility in Japan, and
since Jingo Kogo invented the ogi, after the model of a bat’s wing,
men, women, and children have never ceased carrying one in their
summer obi folds. Fans are the regulation gift upon every occasion
and lack of occasion, and a large collection is acquired in the fewest
summer weeks. Every large shop and tea-house has its own
specially decorated and perfectly well-known uchiwa to be given to
patrons, who in that way declare their wanderings; and at feasts
each guest receives a plain white ogi, upon which poems,
autographs, and sketches are to be traced by his fellow-guests.
Formerly, Kioto shops exhibited many more kinds of fans than at
present. Among them were the court fans, or hiogi, made of twenty-
five broad wooden sticks strung together, and wound with heavy silk
cords, and as long as the Empress retained the old dress she and
her ladies carried these heavy and useless articles. The suehiro, or
wide-end fans of the priests, were a specialty of Kioto and Nara, and
the suehiro accompanied every gift at New Years, weddings, and
anniversaries, as certainly as the red and gold cords and oddly
folded little papers now do. The gumbai uchiwa, heavy war fans,
often with iron or bronze outer-sticks, went with each suit of armor;
and the large oblong uchiwa, descending from priests to No dancers
and to umpires in games and contests, were equally well-known
productions of Kioto. Fans serve an infinite variety of purposes and
speak a language in this land of their own, and no season or
condition of life is without its ministrations. The farmer winnows his
grain with a fan, the housewife blows up the charcoal fire with a fan,
and gardeners, sitting for hours on patient heels, will softly fan half-
open flowers until every petal unfolds. For specific gifts, specific
designs and colors appear. One fan may be offered to a lady as a
declaration of love. Another serves as her sign of dismissal, and the
Japanese are often amused to see foreigners misapply the language
and etiquette of fans.
Although gas and electricity light every Japanese city, and
American and Russian kerosene come in whole cargoes, the
manufacture of paper lanterns increases apace, for now all the
quarters of the globe demand them. Constructing the flimsy frames
is a sleight-of-hand process, and with the same deftness the old
lantern-makers dash on designs, characters, and body-colors, with a
bold brush. But one must live in Japan to appreciate the softened
light of lanterns, and in the lavish and general nightly use of them
learn all the fairy-like and splendid effects to be obtained with a bit of
paper, some wisps of bamboo, and a little vegetable wax poured
around a paper wick.
 Cotton goods are largely manufactured in Kioto, and at all seasons
the upper reaches of the Kamogawa’s broad, stony bed are white
with bleaching cloth. The Kamogawa’s water, which is better for tea-
making, for rice-boiling, and for mixing dyes than the water of any
other stream in Japan, is also sovereign for bleaching, and its banks
are lined for a long distance with dyeing establishments. The river-
bed, paved with stones under each of its great bridges, is dreary,
wind-swept, and colorless in winter-time, as compared to its summer
brilliancy; but in January it is the place of the kite-flyers, and
Hideyoshi’s bronze-railed Shijo bridge—the southern end of the
Tokaido, the centre from which all distances are measured—
commands a view of an unexampled aerial carnival. Thousands of
giant kites float upward, and the air is filled with a humming, as they
soar, sweep, and circle over the city like huge birds. Kite combats
take place in mid-air, and strings covered with pounded glass cut
other strings, and let the half-animate paper birds and demons loose.
Jinrikisha coolies on bridges and streets must dodge the hanging
strings, and boys run over and into each other while watching their
ventures; but the traditional kite-flying grandfathers whom one reads
about in Western prints are conspicuous by their absence.
There is a game of battledore and shuttlecock much played at the
same season by the girls, the battledore a flat wooden paddle
ornamented with gaudy pictures of Japanese women. The game is a
pretty one, and the girls are wonderfully graceful in playing it, the
long sleeves and the flying obi-ends taking on expressive action
when these charming maidens race and leap through its changes.
Kioto is not without its theatres and places of amusement, ever
ready to beguile one from the sight-seeing and shopping rounds. Its
great actor is Nakamura, and it maintains an academy for the
training of maiko and geisha, where every spring there is a long-
drawn-out festival of dances to help on the rejoicings of the cherry-
blossom season. But its great place of amusement, its Vanity Fair, is
the narrow theatre or show street running from Sanjio to Shijo Street,
just beyond the bridges. This thoroughfare is lined all the way with
rows of shops, labyrinthine bazaars, stalls, and booths, theatres,
side-shows, peep-shows, puppet-shows, wax-works, jugglers,
acrobats, wrestlers, trained animals, story-tellers, fortune-tellers, all
exploited by the voice and drum of their loquacious agents at the
door-way. No jinrikishas are allowed to run on this highway, and day
and night, morning and midnight, it is filled with strolling people and
playing children. In winter it is a cheering refuge from the wider,
wind-swept streets, and in summer days it is cool and shady, the
pavement constantly sprinkled, and the light and heat kept out by
mat awnings stretched across the narrow road-way from roof to roof,
in Chinese fashion. At night it is the busiest place in Kioto, even with
the rival attraction of the river-bed; crowded with revellers, torches
flaring, drums and gongs sounding, the high-pitched, nasal voices, of
the showmen sing-songing their stories and programmes; and
peddlers, pilgrims, priests, men, women, and children, and the
strangers within their gates, making up the throng. Once when a
giantess was on exhibition in a tent the spectators, instead of being
awed by her heroic eight feet of height, were convulsed with laughter
at sight of her. Every movement of the colossus sent them into fresh
spasms. It was like a personification of some netsuke group to see
this huge creature, with hair-pins like clubs, and clogs as large as a
door-step, standing with folded arms, while pigmy visitors climbed up
to perch like insects on her shoulders.
In this ever-open market one may buy the tailless cats of the
country; forlorn, spiritless creatures, staying at home and in-doors at
night, and never going on midnight prowls. Or, if he prefer, there are
the wonderful long-tailed Tosa chickens, fowls kept in tall, bamboo
cages, that their tail-feathers, measuring ten and twelve feet in
length, may make a graceful display. When they are let out to
scratch and wander about like other chickens, their precious feathers
are rolled up in papers and protected from any chance of harm.
Japanese spaniels, or Kioto chins, those little black-and-white, silky-
eared pets, with big, tearful, goggle eyes, and heads as round and
high as Fukurokojin’s, are fashionably dear, ranging from five to forty
dollars each, even in their native town.
From the lower end of Theatre Street a covered way leads to the
fish-market of the city, a dark, cool, stone-floored place, where more
peculiar things may be bought, and more picturesque groups may be
studied, in the strange Rembrandtesque light, than anywhere else in
Kioto. The foreign artists, who carry away scores of sketches of
Japanese life, seem never to find this fish-market, nor in general to
seize the best and least hackneyed subjects. Most of their pictures
have been long anticipated by the native photographers, and the
foreign artist repeats, with less fidelity, the familiar scenes and
subjects, with that painstaking western method that, to the Japanese
eye, leaves as little to the imagination as the photograph itself.
 CHAPTER XXIX
GOLDEN DAYS

Nammikawa, the first cloisonné artist of the world, has his home,
his workshop, and his little garden in a quiet corner of the Awata
district. Most visitors never pass beyond his ante-room, as
Nammikawa holds his privacy dear, and that small alcove with the
black table gives little hint of what lies beyond. The more fortunate
visitor follows the master through a dark recess to a large room with
two sides open to the garden, and a tiny balcony overhanging a
lakelet. He claps his hands, and big golden carp rise to the surface
and gobble the mochi thrown them. In that little paradise, barely sixty
feet square, are hills, groves, thickets, islands, promontories, and
bays, a bamboo-shaded well, and a shrine, while above the farthest
screen of foliage rise the green slopes of Maruyama.
A Japanese friend, who described Nammikawa as “the most
Japanese and most interesting man in Kioto,” took us to drink tea
with him in this charming garden, and, on the hottest afternoon of a
hot Kioto summer, we noted neither time nor temperature until the
creeping shadows warned us to depart. Old Japan seemed to re-live
in the atmosphere of that garden, and a cha no yu was no more
finished than the simple tea-ceremony the master performed there.
By the old etiquette a Japanese gentleman never intrusted to any
servant the making of tea for a guest, nor allowed the fine art of that
simple, every-day process to be exercised unseen. The tea-tray,
brought and set before the master, bore a tiny jewel-like teapot of old
Awata, and the tiny cloisonné cups with plain enamelled linings were
as richly colored as the circle of a tulip’s petals, and smaller far. With
them was a small pear-shaped dish, not unlike our gravy-boats, a
beautiful bronze midzu tsugi, or hot-water pot, and a lacquer box
holding a metal tea-caddy filled with the finest leaves from Uji tea-
gardens. Taking a scoop of yellowed ivory, carved in the shape of a
giant tea-leaf, our host filled the little teapot with loosely-heaped
leaves, and having decanted the hot water into the little pear-shaped
pitcher to cool a little, poured it upon the tea-leaves. Immediately he
drew off the palest amber fluid, half filling each cup, and presented
them to us, resting on leaf-shaped stands or saucers of damascened
metal. The tea was only lukewarm when we received it, but as
delicate and exquisitely flavored as if distilled of violets, as rich and
smooth as a syrup, the three sips of it constituting a most powerful
stimulant. In the discussion of tea-making that followed, our
Japanese mentor explained to us that to the epicurean tea-drinkers
of his country, boiling water was an abomination, as it scorched the
leaves, drove out the fine fragrance in the first cloud of steam, and
extracted the bitterness instead of the sweetness of the young
leaves. “It may be well enough to pour boiling water on the coarse
black tea of China’s wild shrub,” said this delightful Japanese, “but
the delicate leaf of our cultivated tea-plant does not need it.”
With the tea our host offered us large flat wafers of rice and fancy
confections in the shape of most elaborate asters and
chrysanthemums, too artistic to be eaten without compunction. The
cups were refilled with the second and stronger decoction, which set
every nerve tingling, and then only were we permitted to see the
treasures of Nammikawa’s creation. From box and silken bag within
bag were produced vases, whose lines, color, lustre, and brilliant
intricacy of design made them beautiful beyond praise. They were
wrought over with finest traceries of gold, silver, and copper wires,
on grounds of dull Naples yellow, soft yellowish-green, a darker
green, or a rich deep-red, wonderful to behold, the polished surface
as even and flawless as that of a fine onyx.
One by one some smaller pieces were brought in, in little boxes of
smooth white pine, beautifully made and joined. Nammikawa opened
first the cotton wadding, then the inevitable wrapping of yellow cloth,
and lastly the silken covers, and handled with a tender reverence
these exquisite creations of his genius, every one of which, when
placed on its low teak-wood stand, showed faultless. For two years
his whole force was at work on the two sixteen-inch vases which
went to the Paris Exposition, and four years were given to the
Emperor’s order for a pair for his new palace. These bore the
imperial emblems, and dragons writhed between chrysanthemums
and through conventional flower-circles and arabesques, and the
groundwork displayed the splendid red, green, russet, mottled gold,
and glistening avanturine enamels, whose secret Nammikawa holds.
For it is not only in his fine designs, but in the perfect composition
and fusing of his enamels and the gem-like polish that this great
artist excels all rivals.

IN NAMMIKAWA’S WORK-ROOM

In another garden, concealed by a bamboo hedge, is the tiny

laboratory, and the one work-room where less than twenty people, all
told, execute the master’s designs. One etches these patterns on the
copper base, following Nammikawa’s delicately traced outlines;
another bends and fastens the wires on the etched lines, and a third
coats the joinings with a red oxide that, after firing, unites the wires
more firmly to the copper. Others dot the paste into the cell-like
spaces, or sit over tubs of water, grinding with fine stones, with
charcoal, and deer-horn the surface of the pieces that have been
fired. Nammikawa adds the master-touches, and after conducting
the final firing, himself gives them the last incomparable polish, after
his men have rubbed away for weeks. These workmen come and go
as they please, working only when the spirit moves them, and doing
better work, the master believes, when thus left to their own devices.
All of them are artists whose skill is a family inheritance, and they
have been with Nammikawa for many years. The most skilful of
these craftsmen receive one yen a day, which is extravagant pay in
this land of simple living, and shows in what high esteem they are
held. A few women are employed in the polishing and the simpler
details, and, while we watched them, were burnishing a most
exquisite teapot covered with a fine foliated design on pale yellow
ground. This treasure had been bought by some connoisseur while
the first rough filling of paste was being applied, and he had bided
his time for a twelvemonth, while the slow processes of filling and
refilling the cells, and firing and refiring the paste had succeeded one
another until it was ready for the first grinding.
Fifty or sixty small pieces, chiefly vases, caskets, and urns, three
and four inches high, and ranging in price from thirty to ninety yen
each, are a whole year’s output, and larger pieces are executed by
special order at the same time with these. Nammikawa does not like
to sell to the trade, and has been known to refuse the requests of
curio merchants, making his customers pay more if he suspects that
they are buying to sell again. It is his delight to hand the precious
article to its new owner, enjoining him to keep it wrapped in silk and
wadding, and always to rub it carefully to remove any moisture
before putting it away. He cautions visitors, when they attempt to
handle the precious pieces in his show-room, not to touch the
enamelled surface with the hand, the metal base and collar being left
free on each piece for that purpose. Nor must two pieces of
cloisonné ever be knocked together, as the enamel is almost more
brittle than porcelain. Curiously enough, this great artist uses no
mark nor sign-manual. “If my work will not declare itself to be mine,
then the marking will do no good,” he says; and, indeed, his
cloisonné is so unlike the crude and commonplace enamels
exported from Japan by ship-loads for the foreign market, that it
does not need the certification of his name.
 Nammikawa has the face of a saint, or poet—gentle, refined, and
intellectual—and his beautiful manner and perfect courtesy are an
inheritance of the old Japan. His earlier days were not saintly,
although they may have been poetical. He was a personal attendant
of Prince Kuné no Miya, a brother of Prince Komatsu, and cousin of
the Emperor, and was brought up in the old court life with its
atmosphere of art and leisure. The elegant young courtier was noted
for his gayety and improvidence. He remained in Kioto when the
court moved northward, and all at once ceased his dissipations,
even putting aside his pipe, to devote himself to experiments in the
manufacture of cloisonné, for which he had always had a passion. In
his laboratory there is a square placque, a bluish bird on a white
ground diapered with coarse wires, which was his first piece. One
can hardly believe that only fifteen years intervene between this
coarse, almost Chinese, specimen of his work, and the vases for the
Emperor’s palace. From the start he threw himself into his profession
with his whole soul and spirit. Incessant experiments in the solitude
of his laboratory and work-room at night, and the zeal and patience
of a Palissy at the furnace, conquered his province. He is still
constantly studying and experimenting, and always fires his pieces
himself, keeping long vigils by the little kiln in the garden.
Hurry and money-making he despises. Gazing dreamily out into
his garden, Nammikawa declared that he had no ambition to have a
large godown, a great workshop, and a hundred workmen; that he
always refused to take any large commissions or commercial orders,
or to promise a piece at any given time. Neither good art nor good
work can be commanded by money, he thought, nor did he want his
men to work faster, and therefore less carefully, because greater
prices are offered him for haste. It was his pleasure, he said, to take
years for the execution of a single piece that might stand flawless
before all connoisseurs, and receive its just reward of praise or
medals. The latter are dearer to him than any sum of money, and in
his own garden he finds happiness with them.
There is a Nammikawa of Tokio who is not to be confounded with
this Kioto artist. The Tokio enameller has an entirely different style, a
simple design thrown in a broad style upon an unbroken
groundwork, easily distinguishing his work from any other; but
Nammikawa of Tokio deals directly with the trade, even contracting
with foreign curio dealers for seasons of work, and makes replicas of
his exquisite pieces by the score for them. Imitators of his style have
arisen, and already many cheap pieces, copying his best models,
can be purchased in foreign cities.
The idling most delightful of all in Kioto is going over and over
again to the same places, doing the same thing repeatedly, and
arriving at that happy and eminently Japanese frame of mind where
haste enters not; time is forgotten, days slip by uncounted, and limits
cease to be. The spring days, when the rain falls in gauziest mist—
the rain that is so good for young rice—or summer days, when the
sun scorches the earth and burns one’s very eyeballs, seem to bring
the most unbroken leisure and longest hours in any agreeable
refuge.
Sitting on Yaami’s veranda, with the great plain of the city
wreathed in mists or quivering in heat, I have recognized my
indebtedness to Griffis, Dresser, Mitford, Morse, and Rein, those
authorities on all things Japanese, not to mention Murray and his
ponderous guide-book, whose weight and polysyllabic pages strike
terror to the soul of the new-comer. Griffis I read, until Tairo and
Minamoto, Hideyoshi and Iyeyasu, grew as familiar as William the
Conqueror and the Declaration of Independence; Dresser’s text and
illustrations were a constant delight and illumination, explaining the
incomprehensible and pointing to hidden things; and Morse’s
Japanese Homes laid bare their mysteries, and made every fence,
roof, rail, ceiling, and wall take on new features and expression.
Rein’s is the encyclopædia, and he the recorder, from whose
statements there is no appeal, and to him we turned for everything. It
is only on the sacred soil that the student gets the true value and
meaning of these books; while nothing so nearly expresses and
explains the charm of the country as that prose idyl, Percival Lowell’s
Soul of the Far East, nor so perfectly fits one’s moods on these long,
leisure days, and Mitford’s Tales of Old Japan are of ceaseless
delight.
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