UNIT FIVE

NETWORK MODELS
5.1. General network concepts
It is essential to identify the various activities involved in the execution of Projects. The large and
complex projects of any organization involve a number of interrelated activities, which might be
performed independently, simultaneously, or one after the other. Modern management has designed a
network models approach to solve the problem associated with the allocation of scarce resources of
manpower, material, money and time to these interrelated activities.
A project can be defined as being a series of activities designed to achieve a specific objective, and which
has a definite beginning and a definite end. For network analysis to be of use, the project must be capable
of being split into a number of discrete activities, which relate together in a logical and well-defined
manner. Network analysis involves the breaking down of a project into its constituent activities, and the
presentation of these activities in diagrammatic form.
Networks are one of the important tools of management science which easily solve problem by presenting
in visual formats. The shortest route problem, minimum spanning tree and maximal flow models are
useful for solving problems associated with allocation of scarce resources, time, cost, and material
consumption. Moreover, CPM and PERT, contributed a lot for complex projects management under
different situations.
5.2. PERT AND CPM NETWORK DIAGRAMS
In PERT and CPM the milestones are represented as events. Event or node is either starting of an activity
or ending of an activity. Activity is represented by means of an arrow, which is resource consuming.
Activity consumes resources like time, money and materials. Event will not consume any resource, but it
simply represents either starting or ending of an activity. Event can also be represented by rectangles or
triangles. When all activities and events in a project are connected logically and sequentially, they form a
network, which is the basic document in network-based management. The basic steps for writing a
network are: Drawing a logic diagram is a skill requiring practice and ingenuity, and for major projects
may require two or three attempts before a satisfactory network or diagram is completed correctly.
Computer packages are often used to carry out this process, cutting drastically the time taken.
5.1.1. Basic Components of Network Diagram
i) Network: It is the graphic representation of logically and sequentially connected arrows and nodes
representing activities and events of a project. Networks are also called arrow diagram.

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ii) Activity: An activity represents some action and is a time consuming effort necessary to complete a
particular part of the overall project. Thus each and every activity has a point where it ends. It is
represented in the network by an arrow.

A Here A is called an activity.

The straight lines connecting the circles represent a task that takes time or
resources; these lines are called activities. The arrow heads show the direction of the activity. The
beginning and end points of an activity are called events or nodes. Event is a point in the line and does
not consume any resource.
iii) Merge and burst events: It is not necessary an event to be the ending event of the only one
activity but can be the ending event of two or more activities. Such event is defined as a Merge
event. If the event happened to be the beginning event of two or more activities, it is defined as a
Burst event.
iv) Preceding, succeeding and concurrent activities: Activities, which must be accomplished before
a given event can occur, are termed as preceding activities. Activities, which cannot be
accomplished until any event has occurred, are termed as succeeding activities. Activities that can
be accomplished concurrently are known as concurrent activities. This classification is relative,
which means that one activity can be proceeding to a certain event, and the same activity can be
succeeding to some other event or it may be a concurrent activity with one or more activities.
v) Dummy Activity: Certain activities, which neither consume time nor resources but are used
simply to represent a connection or a link between the events, are known as dummies. It is shown
in the network by a dotted (broken) line.
The purpose of introducing dummy activity is:
 To maintain uniqueness in the numbering system as every activity may have distinct set of
events by which the activity can be identified.
 To maintain a proper logic in the network.
vi) Numbering the Events: After the network is drawn in a logical sequence, every event is assigned
a number. The number sequence must be in such a way that it should reflect the flow of the
network. In event numbering, the following rules should be observed:
i. Event numbers should be unique.
ii. Event numbering should be carried out a sequential basis from left to right.
iii. The initial event, which has all outgoing arrows with no incoming arrow, is numbered 0
or 1.
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 iv. The head of an arrow should always bear a number higher than the one assigned at the
tail of the arrow.
v. Gaps should be left in the sequence of event numbering to accommodate subsequent
inclusion of activities, if necessary.

Rules for drawing a network

 A complete network should have only one point of entry -the start event, and one point of exit -
the finish event.
 Every activity must have one preceding event -the tail, and one following event - each activity
has one head.
 Several activities may use the same tail event, and the same head event, but no two activities
may share the same head and tail events.
 Time flows from left to right.
 An activity must be completed in order to reach the end-event.
 Dummy activities should only be introduced if absolutely necessary.
Convention for Drawing Networks
In addition to the rules described above, certain conventions are followed for the sake of clarity and
uniformity. There are two slightly different conventions for constructing the net work diagrams. Under
one convention, the arrows are used to designate activities, whereas under the other convention, the nodes
are used to designate activities. These conventions are referred to as activity- on-arrow (A-O-A) and
activity – on- node (A-O-N) respectively. In order to avoid confusion, the discussion here focuses
primarily on activity- on- arrow convention. When we use this convention:
 Networks proceed from left to right -the start event is at the left hand side of the diagram and the
end event at the right hand side
 Networks are not drawn to scale.
 Arrows representing activities should have their head to the right of their tail unless it is impossible
to draw the network in that way.
 Events or nodes should be numbered so that an activity always moves from a lower numbered
event to a higher one. This convention is relatively easy to accomplish in a simple network but in
a complex network it may be necessary to number in tens to allow for extra activities to be added
without the need for a complete renumbering of the whole diagram
 Lines that cross should be avoided if possible

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  The start event may be represented as a line instead of a circle, particularly when several activities
may begin at the start point.
6.2.4. Common Errors in Drawing Networks
There are three types of errors, which are most common in network construction. These are:
a) Formation of a loop: If an activity were represented as going back in time, a closed loop would
occur. In a network diagram looping error is also known as cycling error. Cycling (looping) in a
network can result through a simple error or while developing the activity plans, one tries to show
the repetition of an activity before beginning the next activity. A closed loop would produce an
endless cycle in computer programmers with a built- in routine for detection or identification of the
cycle. Thus one property of a correctly constructed network diagram is that it is non-cyclic.
b) Dangling: No activity should end without being joined to the end event. If it is not so, a dummy
activity is introduced in order to maintain the continuity of the system. Such end-events other than
the end of the project as a whole are called dangling events. All activities must contribute to the
progression of the network or be discarded as irrelevant.
c) Redundancy: If a dummy activity is the only activity emanating from an event, it can be eliminated.
The academic differences between PERT network and CPM network are:
(i) PERT is event oriented and CPM is activity oriented. This is to say that while discussing
about PERT network, we say that Activity 1-2, Activity 2-3 and so on. Or event 2 occurs after event 1 and
event 5 occurs after event 3 and so on. While discussing CPM network, we say that Activity A follows
activity B and activity C follows activity B and so on.
 PERT way: Event 1 is the predecessor to event 2 or event 2 is the successor to event 1. Events 3
and 4 are successors to event 2 or event 2 is the predecessor to events 3 and 4.
 CPM way: Activity 1-2 is the predecessor to Activities 2-3 and 2-4 or Activities 2-3 and 2-4 are
the successors to activity 1-2.

(ii) PERT activities are probabilistic in nature. The time required to complete the PERT activity cannot
be specified correctly. Because of uncertainties in carrying out the activity, the time cannot be specified
correctly.
5.5. Critical Path Method
This is a diagrammatic representation which shows the various activities in a project. The aim of the CPA
is to identify how those activities link together and to show the critical path or the sequence of activities
where a delay will result in the overall project being delayed. An activity is said to be critical if a delay in
its start will cause a further delay in the completion of the entire project.

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The sequence of critical activities in a network is called the critical path. It is the longest path in the
network from the starting event to the ending event and defines the minimum time required to complete
the project. In the network it is denoted by double line. This path identifies all the critical activities of the
project. Hence, for the activity (i,j) to lie on the critical path, following condition must be satisfied.
a) ESi= LSi b) EFi = LFj c) ESj- ESi = LFj- LFi = tij
ES i, EF j, are the earliest start, and finish time of the event j and i. LS i, LF j, are the latest start, finish
time of the event j and i.
The procedure of determining the critical path
Step 1. List all the jobs and then draw arrow (network) diagrams. Each job indicated by an arrow with the
direction of the arrow showing the sequence of jobs. The length of the arrow has no significance. The
arrows are placed based on the predecessor, successor, and concurrent
relation within the job.
Step2. Indicate the normal time ( tij) for each activity ( i,j) above the arrow which is deterministic.
Step 3. Calculate the earliest start time and the earliest finish time for each event and write the
earliest time Ei for each event i. Also calculate the latest finish and latest start times.
Step 4. Indurate the various times namely normal time, earliest time and latest time on the arrow
diagram.
Step 5. Determine the total float for each activity by taking the difference between the earliest start and the
latest start time.
Step 6. Identify the critical activities and connect them with the beginning event and the ending
event in the network diagram by double line arrows. This gives the critical path.
Step 7. Calculate the project duration.
Example:
A small maintenance project consists of the following jobs whose precedence relationship is given below.
Job 1-2 1-3 2-3 2-5 3-4 3-6 4-5 4-6 5-6 6-7
Duratio 15 15 3 5 8 12 1 14 3 14
n ( days)
Required:
a) Draw an arrow diagram representing the project.
b) Find the total float for each activity.
c) Find the critical path and the total project duration.
Solution:
i) The network diagram that represents the project is as follows

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 5 5
15
2

1 1 3
3 4 7
14
15 14
8
3 12
6

ii) The total float for each activity

To determine the total float first the earliest start and finish; late start and finish are computed.
Forward pass calculation
In this we estimate the earliest start and the earliest finish time.
ESj given by: ESj= Max (ESj, tij)
Where Esi is the earliest time and tij is the normal time for the activity (i,j).
ES1=0
ES2= ES1 + t15= 0 + 15=15
ES3= Max (ES 2 + t23, Es1 + 13)
= Max (15 +3, 0+15) = 18
ES4= ES3+ t34 = 18+8 = 26
ES5 = Max (ES 2 + 25, ES4 + t45)
= Max (15 +5, 26+1) = 27
ES6 = Max (ES3+t36, ES4+ t46, ES5+t56)
= Max (18+12, 26+24, 27+3) = 40
ES7 = ES6 + t67 = 40 +14 = 54
Backward pass Calculation
In this we calculate the earliest finish and latest start time Lfi, given by LFi = Min ( LFj-tij) where LFj is
the latest finish time for the event j.
LF7 = 54
LF6= LF7 = t67 = 54-14 = 40
LF5= LS 6-t56= 40-3 = 37
LF4 = Min ( LS5-t45, LS6-t46)

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 = Min ( 37-1, 40-14) = 26
LF3 = Min ( LF4-t34, LF6-t35)
= Min ( 26-8, 40-12) = 18
LF2 = Min ( LF5 - t25, LF3-t23)
= Min ( 37-5, 18-3) = 15
LF 1 = Min ( LF3-t13, LF2-t12)
= Min ( 18-15, 15-150=0
The following table given the calculation for critical path and total float.
Earliest Latest
Normal Total float LFj-
Activity Start Finish Start Finish
time ESj or LFi-ESi
ESi ESj LFi LFj
1-2 15 0 15 0 15 0
1-3 15 0 15 3 18 3
2-3 3 15 18 15 18 0
2-5 5 15 20 32 37 17
3-4 8 18 26 18 26 0
3-6 12 18 30 28 40 10
4-5 1 26 40 26 40 0
5-6 3 27 30 37 40 10
6-7 14 40 54 40 54 0

iii)The critical path

From the above table we observe that the activities 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, 4-6, 6-7 are the critical activities.
The critical path is given by, 1-2-3-4-6-7
The total projection is given by 54 days.
5.6. Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
PERT is a time-oriented technique designated to cater for projects where it is not possible to estimate the
exact duration of the activity. It uses statistical theory to estimate how long a project is likely to last, and
the probability of completing the project by a particular date. PERT is a further development of the CPA
approach which deals with the influence of changes in time on the cost of a project. PERT involves four
key activities:
1. Estimating the normal duration for an activity and the normal cost associated with this time period.
2. Estimating the extent to which this normal duration may be reduced and the additional costs of
doing so. The additional costs may arise from the hiring of additional systems staff or the overtime
worked by existing staff. However, the additional costs do not always relate to human resources
and may, for example, involve additional payments to secure faster methods of delivering the
supplies required.
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 3. Addressing those activities on the critical path, so that each activity is ranked in terms of the cost
of saving one week of time. Starting with the activity that costs least to save a week, and moving
down the list in terms of the ranking, produces an assessment of the time that it is possible to save
on the total project time and the consequent increase in total costs for each incremental week
saved. The process is complicated by the fact that initial changes in the duration of activities on the
critical path may result in a change in the direction of the critical path requiring the consideration
of the time/cost trade-off of other activities.
4. The project managers assessing the potential benefits of saving time on the project against the
incremental costs of doing so. The application of the time/cost trade-off is not only useful before
the start of a project, but can become a useful aid to the project manager in controlling the project,
as it will indicate the costs associated with proposed changes in future activities and the time that
may be saved.
Formulation of PERT Network
The project under consideration can be presented graphically as a network. Such a presentation is based on
the following assumptions:
1. The project can be subdivided into a set of predictable, independent activities, each of which
has a clear beginning and an end.
2. Each activity can be sequenced on to its predecessors or successors. An activity cannot start
until all its predecessors are completed.
3. The network is not cyclical, that is, each activity is executed one and only once during the life
of the project. Any repeating activity is considered a different activity.
4. Activity times may be estimated, either as a single- point estimate (CPM) or as a three-point
estimate (PERT).
5. The duration of the activities is independent of each other.
Computing Algorithm for PERT (Network and Activity Slack Time, Earliest and Latest Activity Times)
In managing the activities of a project, it is sometimes useful to know how soon or how late an individual
activity can be started or finished without affecting the scheduled completion date of the total project.
Four symbols are commonly used to designate the earliest and latest activity times.
ES= The earliest start time for an activity. The assumption is that all predecessor activities are started at
their earliest starting time.
EF= The earliest Finish the time for an activity. The assumption is that the activity starts on its ES and
takes its expected time, T. Therefore, EF= Es + t

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 LF= The latest finish in time for an activity without delaying the project. The assumption is that
successive activities take their expected time.
LS= The latest start time for an activity without delaying the project.
LS= LF - t
The process of calculating ES and EF times involves calculations in sequence from left to right (in the
network) and is sometimes referred to as a forward pass of calculations. Thus, the ES of an activity can be
determined by summing the times of all preceding activities where two paths converge at node the, longest
path (time wise) govern.
The process of calculating ES and EF times involves calculations in sequence from left to right (in the
network) and is sometimes referred to as a forward pass of calculations. Thus, the ES of an activity can be
determined by summing the times of all preceding activities where two paths converge at node, the longest
path (time wise) governs.
Example 1: Computation of earliest start and latest start times for the activities in the net work model for
2 simple data collection projects.
Sequence Activity
1-2 Design questionnaire (A) -
2-3 Prepare questionnaire (B) A
3-4 Prepare Time Table (C) B
3-5 Select interviewers (D) B
3-6 Select target respondents (E) B
4-5 Arrange facilities (F) C
4-6 Notify the respondents (G) C
5-6 Train the interviewers (H) D,F
6-7 Undertake the interview (I) E,G,H
7-8 Organize the collected data (J) I
Computation of Activity Slack Time
Example:
Time estimates for the activities are shown in days on the diagram.

6 6 5
7
4 7 8
5 8
1 2 3 4
4

Required: 6
5
a) Determine the critical path

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b) How much slack time is available in the path containing notifying the respondents?
Solution Time
a. 1-2 -3-5-6-7-8 36 days
b. 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 38 days
c. 1-2-3-4-6-7-8 32 days
d. 1-2-3-6-7-8 31 days
The length of any path can be determined by summing the expected times of the activities on that path.
The path with the longest time is of particular interest because it determines the project’s completion time.
If there are any delays along the longest path, here will be corresponding delays in project completion
time. So to shorten the project completion time one must focus on the longest path. This longest path is so
called the critical path and its activities are referred to as critical activities.
Thus, one the above example, the critical path corresponds to path B with a time requirement of 38 days.
A path slack is the difference between the length of a given path and the length of the critical path. Thus,
the slack corresponding to path C is;
Slack = Time for critical path - Time for = 38 - 32 = 6 days
Thus, slacks for the paths can be:
Path Slack
A 38-36 2
B 38-38 0
C 38-32 6
D 38-31 7

In conclusion, the expected length of the project is 44 days.

With regard to identification of the earliest start, earliest finish, latest start and latest finish times,
observing the following diagram is instrumental.

Activity ES EF LS LF Activity Slack ( LS-ES)

1-2 0 5 0 5 0-0=0
2-3 5 13 5 13 5-5=0
3-4 13 17 13 17 13-13=0
3-5 13 19 15 21 15-13=2
3-6 13 19 20 26 20-13=7
4-5 17 21 17 21 17-17=0
4-6 17 20 23 26 23-17=6
5-6 21 26 21 26 21-21=0
7-8 31 38 31 38 31-31=0

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The computation of earliest times involves "forward pass" through the network and the computation of the
latest times involves a "back-ward pass" through the network. Hence for finding the LS and LF, we must
begin with the earliest finish time of the last activities (i.e. the project length) and use that time as latest
finish time for the last activity.
PERT Under Probabilistic Time Estimates
PERT develops both a measure of central tendency (a mean) and a measure of dispersion (a standard
deviation) of the time required to complete each activity of a project. Having been provided with these
two parameters of the completion time distributions for a project probabilities of finishing the project in
any specified lessen or greater time than the mean time can be readily determined.
Probabilistic time estimates can be made with the help of the following three estimates.
1. Optimistic time estimate (to)
It is a time required for the completion of an activity under optimum conditions.
2. Pessimistic time (tp)
It is a time estimate under worst conditions.
3. The most likely time estimate (tm)
It is the most probable amount that will be required.
Thus by making use of the above, one can estimate project completion times as;
Expected time = te = to + 4tm + tp, where “t” is time
6
Standard deviation =  = tp-t0
6
Variance =  = (tp - to)
2 2

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Example: Estimated duration:
Activity Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
1-2 3 5 7
2-3 4 8 12
3-4 2 4 6
3-5 3 6 9
3-6 3 6 9
4-5 2 4 6
4-6 1 3 6
5-6 2 5 8
6-7 2 5 14
7-8 4 7 10

Having been provided with this information, let us try to find the following facts;
a) Find the expected duration and variance of each activity
b) Find the expected duration of the project.

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c) Calculate the variance and standard deviation of project length and what is the probability that the
project will be completed:
1. at least 4 days earlier than expected?
2. no more than 4 days later than expected?
d) If the project due date is 41 days what is the probability of meeting the due date.
Solution
Ze = To+4tm+tp Expected path length 2
Paths Activity to tm tp S
6 ( E the path)
4
1-2-3-5-6-7-8 1-2 3 5 7 5 37 /9
16/9
2-3 4 8 12 8
3-5 3 6 9 6 1
5-6 2 5 8 5 1
6-7 2 5 14 6 4
7-8 4 7 10 7 1
4
1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 1-2 3 5 7 5 39 /9
2-3 4 8 12 8 Critical path 16
/9
4
3-4 2 4 6 4 /9
4
4-5 2 4 6 4 /9
5-6 2 5 8 5 1
Path Activity (2 path)  Path
1-2-3-5-6-7-8 1-2 83
/9 √ 83/9
2-3
3-5
5-6
6-7
7-8
1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 1-2
2-3
3-4
√ 82/9
82
4-5 /9
5-6 Project variance
6-7
7-8
1-2-3-4-6-7-8 1-2 285/
36
2-3
3-4 √ 285/36
4-6
6-7
7-8
1-2-3-6-7-8 1-2 74/9

2-3
3-6 12
√ 74 /9
6-7
7-8
Thus, project variance is 82/9 and standard deviation of √ 82/9 . To assist our calculations, let us
approximate the values as: Variance = 9 and standard deviation as 3.
To respond to last questions the application of Poisson probability distribution is mandatory. Thus;
The Poisson formula: Z = x-µ where X = specified time
δ
µ = expected time
δ = standard time
Therefore, to find the probability that the project will be completed at least 4 days earlier than expected;
Z= X-N = Z= 35-39 = -1.33
δ 3

So, p (Z<-1.33)
= p(X< 35)
= 0.0918
= 9.18%
Z - 1.33 0
And the probability that the project will be completed at a no more than 4 days later than expected is ;
Z= 43-39 = 4/3 = 1.33
3

P= ( X<43) = P(Z<1.33)
= 0.9082
= 90.82%

N 1.33
In responding to requirement E, the probability of meeting the due date is;
Z= 41-39 = 2/3 = 0.67
3
p ( X< 41) = p (Z< 0.67)
= 0.7486
= 74.86%
N 0.67
5.7 Advantage and limitation of PERT
PERT and similar scheduling techniques can provide important services for the project manager. Among
the most useful features are:
 Use of these techniques forces the manager to organize and quantify available information and to
recognize where additional information is needed.
 The techniques provide a graphical display of the project and its major activities.

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 The techniques identify (a) activities that should be closely watched because of the potential for
delaying the project and (b) other activities that have slack time and, therefore can be delayed
without affecting the project completion time. This rises the possibility of reallocating resources in
order to shorten the project completion.
No analytical technique is without limitations. Among the more important limitations of PERT are:
 In developing the project net work, one or more important activities may be omitted.
 Precedence relationships may not all be correct as shown.
 Time estimates usually include a fudge factor: managers feel uncomfortable about time
estimates because they appear to commit themselves to completion within a certain time
period.
 The use of a computer is essential for large projects.

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