LU 2, PROBABILITY

Expectation, Variance and Coefficient of variation in Probability

1. The following table contains the probability distribution of the
number of traffic accidents daily in a small city. (P.U. 2003)
Accidents daily(X): 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(X): 0.10 0.20 0.45 0.15 0.05 0.05
Compute
a. The mean or expected number of accidents per day .
b. The variance of the distribution.
(Ans: a. 2, b. 1.4)
2. The manager of a large computer network has developed the
following probability distribution of the number of
interruptions per day
INTERRUPTIONS (X) P(X)
0 0.32
1 0.35
2 0.18
3 0.08
4 0.04
5 0.02
6 0.01
a. Compute the mean or expected number of interruptions
per day.
b. Compute the variance, standard deviation, coefficient of
variation of the data.
3. Watson has just bought a TV set from Jim’s Videotape Service at
a cost of $325. He now has the option of buying an extended

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 service warranty offering 5 years of covering for $100. After
talking to friends and reading reports, Watson believes the
following maintenance expenses could be incurred during the
next five years:
Expense 0 50 10 15 20 250 300
0 0 0
Probability 0.35 0.25 0.15 0.10 0.08 0.05 0.02
Find the mean and variance of the anticipated maintenance
expenses. Should Watson pay $100 for the warranty?
Probability by cross tabulation:
4. The following table shows the survey results regarding the
employment status and gender in a sample of 209 management
graduates of Tribhuvan University.
Employment status
Gender Currently Not employed
employed
Male 83 28
Female 64 34
What is the probability that a graduate chosen at random
a. Is currently employed?
b. Is a female and currently employed?
c. Is a female or currently employed?
d. Suppose the graduate chosen is a female, what then is the
probability that she is currently employed?
[Ans: (a) 0.703 (b) 0.306 (c) 0.866 (d) 0.653]
5. In the past several years, credit card companies have made an
aggressive effort to solicit new accounts from college students.
Suppose that a sample of 200 students at your college indicated the

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 following information as to whether the student possessed a bank
credit card &/or a travel and entertainment credit card.
Travel & Entertainment credit card
Bank credit Yes No
card
Yes 60 60
No 15 65
a. What is the probability that the student has a bank credit card?
b. What is the probability that the student has a bank credit card and
a travel and entertainment card?
c. What is the probability that the student has a bank credit card or
a travel and entertainment card?
d. Known that the student has a bank credit card, what then is the
probability that he or she has a travel and entertainment card?
[Ans: (a) 0.60 (b) 0.30 (c) 0.675 (d) 0.50]
6. The following table shows the survey result regarding the purchase
behavior of TV and DVD players in the last six months of 300
households.
Purchase DVD
Purchase TV Yes No Total
Yes 38 42 80
No 70 150 220
Total 108 192 300
a. Find the probability that a randomly selected household
purchased a TV.
b. Find the probability that a randomly selected household
purchased a TV and a DVD player.
c. What is the probability that he/she purchased a TV or DVD player?
d. What is the probability that a household has purchased a DVD

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 player given that household purchased a TV?
Ans: (a) 0.267 (b) 0.127 (c) 0.50 (d) 0.475]
7. The particulars of 400 students in different management colleges for
their results are given to you:
Campus
Division Mechi Koshi Sagarmatha Total
First 90 30 60 180
Second 20 70 70 160
Third 10 30 20 60
Total 120 130 150 400
If a student is selected from the group of students, answers the
following:
a. Find the probability that the student is from the Sagarmatha
campus
b. Find the probability that the student is from the Koshi campus,
given that he obtained third division marks.
c. Find the probability that the student obtained first division marks,
found that he is from Mechi campus.
d. Given that the student is a second division holder, what is the
probability that he is from the Koshi campus?
e. Given that the student is a first division holder, what is the
probability that he is from mechi campus?
[Ans: (a) 0.375 (b) 0.50 (c) 0.75 (d) 0.44(e)
Probability by Bayes theorem:
8. In a bolt factory machine A, B, C manufacturers respectively 25%, 35%,
and 40% of the total of their output 5, 4, 2 percent are defective bolts.
A bolt is drawn at random from the product and is found to be
defective. What is the probability that it was manufactured by

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 machine A?
[Ans: 0.36]
9. It is known from experience that in a certain industry 60% of all
labour-management disputes are over wages, 15% are over working
conditions, and 25% are over fringe issues. Also, 45% of the disputes
over wages are resolved without strikes, 70% of the disputes over
working conditions are resolved without strikes, and 40% of the
disputes over fringe issues are resolved without strikes. What is the
probability that if a labor-management dispute in this industry is
resolved without a strike, it was over wages?
[Ans: 0.57]
10. A factory has 3 production units A, B, and C. A produces 25% of its
products, unit B produces 25% and unit C produces 50%. If the
percentage of defective items produces by three units A, B and C
respectively 1%, 2% and 3% and an item selected randomly from the
total production of the factory is found to be defective. What is the
probability that it is produced by unit C?
[Ans: 0.667]
11. A company has two plants to manufacture cars. Plant I manufactures
80 percent of the cars and plant II manufactures 20 percent. At plant I,
85 out of 100 cars are rated standard quality or better. At plant II, only
65 out of 100 cars are rated standard quality or better.
a. What is the probability that the cars selected at random came
from plant I, if it is known that the car is of standard quality?
b. What is the probability that the car came from plant II, if it is
known that the car is of standard quality?
[Ans: (a) 0.84 (b) 0.16]

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12. There are three machines A, B and C producing 1000, 2000 and 3000
articles per hour respectively. These machines are known to be
producing 1%, 2%, and 3% defectives respectively. One article is
selected at random from an hour production of the three machines
and found to be defective. What is the probability that the article is
produced from: (a) Machine A (b) Machine B (c) Machine C?
[Ans: (a) 0.071 (b) 0.286 (c) 0.643]
13. The chances of X, Y, Z becoming managers of a certain company are
4:2:3. The probabilities that bonus scheme will be introduced if X, Y, Z
becomes manager are 0.3, 0.5 and 0.8 respectively. If the bonus
scheme has been introduced, what is the probability that X is
appointed as the manager?
[Ans: 0.26]
14. In a certain factory, machines I, II, and III are all producing springs of
the same length. Of their production, machines I, II, and III produce
2%, 1%, and 3% defective springs respectively. Of the total production
of springs in the factory, machine I produce 35%, machine II produces
25%, and machine III produces 40%. If one spring is selected at
random from the total springs produced in a day, find (a) the
probability that it is defective, (b) the conditional probability that it
was produced by machine III.
[Ans: (a) 0.022 (b) 0.558]

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